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2c3d4cfb-a75d-4979-8f29-73b3834ae1d1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | World Discovery Models
1 Introduction
---------------
Modern AI has been remarkably successful in solving complex decision-making problems such as GO (silver2016mastering; silver2017mastering), simulated control tasks (schulman2015trust), robotics (levine2016end), poker (moravvcik2017deepstack) and Atari games (mni... |
18b71a59-52ba-4d4d-aab2-c056b0509426 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Did you enjoy Ramez Naam's "Nexus" trilogy? Check out this interview on neurotech and the law.
I recently had the great pleasure of interviewing Dr. Allan McCay on the Futurati Podcast. He's a legal scholar and philosopher who focuses on questions at the interface of emerging neurotechnologies and the law, such as how... |
578694d0-7172-45d7-b9d1-ed4755121a9c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An attempt in layman's language to explain the metaethics sequence in a single post.
|
9e905f68-19b7-4d53-92ca-ad9f199c3bd5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Fall of Rationality - The Senate of Admins
Borrowing liberally from https://youtu.be/ecMfU3910WY. In fact, this won't make much sense without having seen that first. The following is definitely very accurate to the attitudes of the people and groups mentioned and should totally be thought of as representative.
Ni... |
d9d68a67-02a5-4352-9895-b1954291ddbc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Schelling Point Strategy Training
There's a category of game-theoretic scenario called Battle of the Sexes, which is commonly used to demonstrate coordination problems. Two cinema-goers, traditionally a husband and wife, have agreed to go to the cinema, but haven't decided on what to see beforehand. Of the two films t... |
f0694686-e2f9-4ad8-b4f1-4530ce4e59bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Exploring Concept-Specific Slices in Weight Matrices for Network Interpretability
Hello. I've been interesting in AI for a long time, but I never contributed anything to discussions of AI alignment in the past, because I didn't think I was smart enough. Turns out, no-one else in the world is smart enough to solve this... |
3467f9d2-6aed-40df-8139-7b36d36e8ff4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monthly Roundup #26: January 2025
Some points of order before we begin the monthly:
1. It’s inauguration day, so perhaps hilarity is about to ensue. I will do my best to ignore most forms of such hilarity, as per usual. We shall see.
2. My intention is to move to a 5-posts-per-week schedule, with more shorter posts... |
cd5df30d-a512-44a9-aec4-04acfae825a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Housing and Transit Roundup #4
It’s time for another housing roundup, so I can have a place to address the recent discussions about the local impact of housing construction on housing costs.
DOES INCREASING LOCAL HOUSING SUPPLY DECREASE LOCAL HOUSING PRICES?
Scott Alexander says Change My Mind: Density Increases Loc... |
3b8b504c-3ee3-4735-a42b-69c066287cf5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Apply to the Redwood Research Mechanistic Interpretability Experiment (REMIX), a research program in Berkeley
This winter, Redwood Research is running a coordinated research effort on mechanistic interpretability of transformer models. We’re excited about recent advances in mechanistic interpretability and now want to... |
1129abcc-44fd-43c0-96df-30c0a761a8b7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Help Understanding Preferences And Evil
I’m having a problem understanding why Stuart Russell thinks that AI learning human preferences is a good idea. I think it’s a bad idea. I assume I am wrong but I assume I don’t understand something. So, help me out here please. I’m not looking for an argument but rather to unde... |
3284e349-1960-41b8-a163-02e7060b488b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | New AI risks research institute at Oxford University
The [Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology](http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/) (aka FutureTech) is a new research department at Oxford University, roughly a spin-off of FHI, but *focusing* on AI and nanotech risks and [differential technological ... |
3ea11876-aef6-4e8e-8aad-d44664ac8671 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The alignment problem from a deep learning perspective
*This report (*[*now available on arxiv*](https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00626)*) is intended as a concise introduction to the alignment problem for people familiar with machine learning. It translates previous arguments about misalignment into the context of deep lea... |
ca01be5d-f7a8-4084-82a0-13f1694aea2d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Karma Changes
As recently (re-)suggested by Kaj Sotala, posts now have much larger effects on karma than comments: Each up or down vote on a post is worth 10 karma.
Negative votes on posts have had karma effects all along, but for some reason Reddit's code imposed a display cap (not an actual cap) of 0. This violat... |
a0e60d9f-0160-4a62-b38e-fb935d20b34a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | CHAI Newsletter #2 2020
5/4/22, 3:38 PM CHAI Newsletter
https://mailchi.mp/humancompatible.ai/chai-q4-newsletter -intern-applications-due-soon-5068337 1/114th Annual CHAI W orkshop
In June, CHAI held its fourth annual workshop! Due to COVID-19, the workshop
was held online.
The two-day workshop brought together pro... |
c6bf8ef9-02c5-4823-86af-2c39e445f333 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Updatelessness doesn't solve most problems
In some discussions (especially about acausal trade and multi-polar conflict), I’ve heard the motto “X will/won’t be a problem because superintelligences will just be Updateless”. Here I’ll explain (in layman’s terms) why, as far as we know, it’s not looking likely that a sup... |
0dd1cd98-8b6e-41a1-8bb9-0395d073ac01 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Drivers of large language model diffusion: incremental research, publicity, and cascades
*This post is one part of the sequence* [*Understanding the diffusion of large language models*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/8rYkpiFhbb4HsbzFc)*. As context for this post, I strongly recommend reading at least the* [*5-... |
14a8bcaa-4c17-4b13-be88-db66775478cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shortest damn doomsplainer in world history
Computers get smarter. People don't. Some bots will be greedy and some will not. The greedy ones will take everything. |
1131b8f0-e3bd-41ca-a190-f30cb3405e14 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wisdom Cannot Be Unzipped
Introduction
The year was 2016 (or close enough), and a friend of mine’s younger brother - we’ll call this younger brother Luke - was about to start college.
Having completed college not that long ago, I thought it would be nice if I could make a list of some of the things that had helped me... |
80631b8a-9b56-46cc-98c8-b46daf358ef1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [Linkpost] A survey on over 300 works about interpretability in deep networks
[**Toward Transparent AI: A Survey on Interpreting the Inner Structures of Deep Neural Networks**](https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.13243)
**Tilman Räuker\* (**[traeuker@gmail.com](mailto:traeuker@gmail.com))
**Anson Ho\*** ([anson@epochai.org]... |
9d3c0eb9-3ce9-4cb8-84d9-1ca340ccf97c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are examples of someone doing a lot of work to find the best of something?
My example: Marinara sauce: https://twitter.com/tresterese/status/1684024122278281217 |
db162a84-61c1-4da0-906a-f0039b2775d7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link, 2011] Team may be chosen to receive $1.4 billion to simulate human brain
This is the team responsible for simulating the rat cortical column.
http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110308/full/news.2011.143.htm
The team is one of 6 that is being considered for at least 2 "FET Flagship" positions, which comes with al... |
7b4ded3c-7e5c-4ace-a88f-3330052d5e10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Retrospective: November 10-day virtual meditation retreat
So yesterday I finished a 10-day virtual meditation retreat taught by Tucker Peck and Upasaka Upali.
Several people have asked me what it was like, so here are some highlights.
First, a “virtual” retreat means that you spend 10 days doing pretty much nothing ... |
8699daf9-b9c0-480f-959b-e55985ebc349 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | So, I guess the site redesign is live?
I saw some discussion posts earlier talking about a LessWrong redesign, and now that things look different, I guess that it's been implemented. I'm always slightly annoyed for a while when a site I use gets redesigned because I have to relearn where everything is, but it eventual... |
14425ee5-0eee-45ba-b795-59a725b55ed7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Interpretability Externalities Case Study - Hungry Hungry Hippos
Some people worry about interpretability research being useful for AI capabilities and potentially net-negative. As far as I was aware of, this worry has mostly been theoretical, but now there is a real world example: The [hungry hungry hippos](https://a... |
f7eeb850-8903-4f7a-a79a-c3281b83a521 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence announces 1,75 trillion parameters model, Wu Dao 2.0
> BAAI researchers demonstrated Wu Dao's abilities to perform natural language processing, text generation, image recognition, and image generation tasks during the lab's annual conference on Tuesday. The model can not only... |
79563397-1a53-4432-adc8-e7e381b69ca2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Virtue of Narrowness
> What is true of one apple may not be true of another apple; thus more can be said about a single apple than about all the apples in the world.
>
> —“The Twelve Virtues of Rationality”
Within their own professions, people grasp the importance of narrowness; a car mechanic knows the differen... |
5227b776-bf4b-4a29-89ec-e9ca8e292219 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decision theory question: Alpha and omega play paper scissor rock
Edit: Actually nevermind, this is just counterfactual mugging. Deleting post.
We have two superintelligent rational entities, call them alpha and omega, and they have access to each other's source code. They're playing one round of paper scissor rock. ... |
c0a2f99f-03b6-4b6d-aa64-383dee9db5da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Group rationality diary, 5/14/12
Background: I and many other attendees at the CFAR rationality minicamp last weekend learned a lot about applied rationality, and made big personal lists of things we wanted to try out in our everyday lives. I think that a regular (weekly or maybe semi-weekly) post where people menti... |
5e1fad3f-cc6c-4323-9dbf-0ede5a24e1c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Aligning Mathematical Notions of Infinity with Human Intuition
If you took half the stars, how many would remain? (Photo by Greg Rakozy on Unsplash)
Mathematicians have come up with a way of comparing infinities that doesn’t make sense to most people. I want to help.
So, I’ve written this to do the following:
1. Ex... |
80d76777-52e8-45f9-81e3-eca7f2b01391 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Natural Selection of Bad Vibes
(Part 1)
TLDR: Things seem bad. But chart-wielding optimists keep telling us that things are better than they’ve ever been. What gives? Hypothesis: the point of conversation is to solve problems, so public discourse will focus on the problems—making us all think that things are wors... |
ef5e7c57-56af-45e8-bc56-c16e683267bc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Diagonal lemma
The **diagonal lemma** shows how to construct self-referential sentences in the language of arithmetic from formulas $\phi(x)$.
In its standard form it says that is $T$ is a theory extending [minimal arithmetic](https://arbital.com/p/) (so that it can talk about [recursive](https://arbital.com/p/) expr... |
d5b70faf-4d15-4c1b-b5c3-80b05095a2c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, July 16-22, 2013
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Given the discussion thread about these, let's try calling this a one-week thread, and see if anyone bothers starting one next Monday.
|
2d63ccb0-0bb6-4689-95bf-8e9830a061ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2024 ACX Predictions: Blind/Buy/Sell/Hold
My 2023 ACX predictions showed a clear lack of confidence in taking on the market. I won 30 markets for an average of +185 each, and lost 12 for an average loss of -185 each1. When one goes 30-12, hitting a 71% mark versus the about 58% average price initially paid, that is wo... |
393c3749-4075-4a9e-8661-69622286e9b3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Underlying model of an imperfect morphism
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; fl... |
61132b0b-f39a-41e9-8f6e-8017b59d4fbd | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Martial arts can be a good training to ensure your personal security, if you assume the worst about your tools and environment. If you expect to find yourself unarmed in a dark alley, or fighting hand to hand in a war, it makes sense. But most people do a lot better at ensuring their personal security by coordinating ... |
61e12883-d71f-41a7-8a86-a16089904969 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Games in Kocherga club: FallacyMania, Tower of Chaos, Training game
Discussion article for the meetup : Games in Kocherga club: FallacyMania, Tower of Chaos, Training game
WHEN: 24 February 2016 07:40:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Moscow, B.Dorogomilovskaya, 5-2
Welcome to Moscow LW community makeshift games! In tha... |
45c710f9-900e-489f-b2a4-bf9b00c7e925 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Model Depth as Panacea and Obfuscator
Introduction
Some models are inherently interpretable. An example of this is a linear model, like the one below:
Price = $3000 + $2000 * electric - $1000 * diesel + $50 * red + $100 * economy - $450 * years
Or, in ordinary language:
“When estimating the price of a car, start wi... |
f8a3c63f-124c-4d04-a3a3-441f534ae27d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intermittent Distillations #2
Servant of Many Masters: Shifting priorities in Pareto-optimal sequential decision-making (Andrew Critch and Stuart Russell)
Servant of Many Masters: Shifting priorities in Pareto-optimal sequential decision-making
Summary
A policy (over some partially observable Markov decision process... |
1989b68a-fb73-4559-9c13-9e637979b356 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Could realistic depictions of catastrophic AI risks effectively reduce said risks?
Several pieces of fiction, for example the Terminator films, have popularised the idea that advances in AI could pose a serious threat to human civilisation. However, many people who are seriously concerned about issues such as the alig... |
63ebee0f-2706-4944-8fdb-79bbf607a64f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Burley Bee kids bike trailer review
With the coronavirus we haven't been taking buses or taxis, which had mostly limited us to walking distance with our kids. [1] Expanding to bicycling distance would help a lot, so we decided to get a bicycle trailer.
I did a bunch of reading on various forums, and it looked like th... |
b03919c1-67a4-4cd3-b3c8-f992369427ad | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Open Problems and Fundamental Limitations of RLHF
Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has emerged as the central alignment technique used to finetune state-of-the-art AI systems such as GPT-4, Claude, Bard, and Llama-2. Given RLHF's status as the default industry alignment technique, we should carefully ... |
e1b57db2-d0c9-4053-9eb3-9bf541829e90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes - July 2009
(Last month's started a little late, I thought I'd bring it back to its original schedule.)
A monthly thread for posting any interesting rationality-related quotes you've seen recently on the Internet, or had stored in your quotesfile for ages.
* Please post all quotes separately (so ... |
69bc933d-3400-40ef-93f0-2e4985948fe0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Go home GPT-4o, you’re drunk: emergent misalignment as lowered inhibitions
Replicating the Emergent Misalignment model suggests it is unfiltered, not unaligned
We were very excited when we first read the Emergent Misalignment paper. It seemed perfect for AI alignment. If there was a single 'misalignment' feature with... |
f64853d4-b875-4f67-9a70-6f750bfdffb0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An explanation of Aumann's agreement theorem
I've written up a 2-page explanation and proof of Aumann's agreement theorem. Here's a link to the pdf on Scribd.com.
The proof in Aumann's original paper is already very short and accessible. (Wei Dai gave an exposition closely following Aumann's in this post.) My inte... |
05927d00-6720-403c-91ed-b41dfed1069a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Is it a bad idea to pay for GPT-4?
I don't want to accelerate an arms race, and paying for access to GPT seems like a perfect way to be a raindrop in a dangerous flood. My current idea is to pay an equal amount monthly to Miri. I'll view it as the price being $40 per month with half going to AI safety research.
I... |
97634623-6792-4ccb-9c9c-f7cd193086b3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | Why might a maximizing AI cause bad outcomes?
Computers only do what you tell them. But any programmer knows that this is precisely the problem: computers do exactly what you tell them, with no common sense or attempts to interpret what the instructions really meant. If you tell a human to cure cancer, they will insti... |
b5e2bf85-7eb1-4a94-8f80-4a588cd7eb6a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Musk's non-missing mood
Luke Muehlhauser writes:
> Over the years, my colleagues and I have spoken to many machine learning researchers who, perhaps after some discussion and argument, claim to think there’s a moderate chance — a 5%, or 15%, or even a 40% chance — that AI systems will destroy human civilizatio... |
1e9c5254-06c4-4eb3-a83a-6dc1133404fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Other versions of "No free lunch in value learning"
Here are some more general results derived from "Occam's razor is insufficient to infer the preferences of irrational agents":
* Regularisation is insufficient to make inverse reinforcement learning work.
* Unsupervised learning cannot deduce human preferences; at... |
1715093a-e1e8-44b6-8958-48178f82cd65 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On notation for modal UDT
Patrick thinks that the notation I've been using for talking about modal UDT is too hard to read. I agree that it's annoying that after defining a decision problem →P(→a) and choosing a decision theory →T(→u)---say, →T(→u)≡→UDT(→u)---, I every time have to explicitly give separate names to th... |
1cae78a0-4b8f-494f-9e87-f28fd234ad47 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Link: "You're Not Being Reasonable"
Thanks to David Brin, I've discovered a blogger, Michael Dobson, who has written, among other things, a fourteen-part series on cognitive biases. But that's not what I'm linking to today.
This is what I'm linking to:
You're Not Being Reasonable
> I’m embarrassed to admit that I’v... |
135caea9-57cd-4a02-b96c-305702f5282c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Safety engineering, target selection, and alignment theory
Artificial intelligence capabilities research is aimed at making computer systems more intelligent — able to solve a wider range of problems more effectively and efficiently. We can distinguish this from research specifically aimed at making AI systems at vari... |
b5f0eb81-d666-4349-8ea9-ee7024dcf8e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fake Amnesia
Followup to: Tonic Judo
Related to: Correspondence Bias
Imagine that someone you know has a reaction that you consider disproportionate to the severity of the event that caused it. If your friend loses their comb, and they get weirdly angry about it, and you persuade them into calming down with rational... |
ea31c2d8-7ddc-45ed-b2f2-559d62471641 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My 10-year retrospective on trying SSRIs
In 2014 I got on SSRIs the first time, and they were amazing. I wrote online about how I suddenly had energy to do things, could concentrate on stuff, and generally just felt better and happier.
I now got a message from someone who’d found my writings and was wondering what my... |
d1bef529-663a-4794-bf33-1730f28eb91d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | MIRI Call for Volunteers
Are you interested in reducing existential risk? Are you a student who wants to donate to existential risk reduction, but doesn't have any money? Are you a past or present Visiting Fellow applicant? Do you want to apply to the Visiting Fellows program, but can't take time off work or school? I... |
a01bef62-6774-45e8-ab85-d130c3b6def8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New LW Meetup: Rochester NY
This summary was posted to LW Main on August 21st. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* Rochester LessWrong and Transhumanists: 12 September 2015 01:00PM
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking p... |
5bf46c27-6ce3-4480-85cb-e4e529c2337f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna
Discussion article for the meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna
WHEN: 16 January 2016 03:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Kaisermühlenstraße 24, 1220 Vienna
Location (often depicted wrong, come to U2 Stadlau) http://web.student.tuwien.ac.at/~e0326238/rationality_meetup/directions.html
Topic:... |
c3640711-64b1-4eda-9eee-622366fe920a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 5 Physics Problems
Muireall and DaemonicSigil trade physics problems. Answers and discussion of the answers have been spoilered so you can try the problems yourself. Please also use spoiler formatting (type ">!") in the comments.
DaemonicSigil
Smeared Out Sun
Okay, so the first problem is from Thinking Physics. (I ... |
b130e13d-0d3c-438e-889d-48c0cb5e9002 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on May 15th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* Oslo LessWrong Meetup: 22 May 2015 05:15PM
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Ann Arbor, MI Discussio... |
79a52aee-6856-413c-aa44-65536188f58c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Meta-level adversarial evaluation of oversight techniques might allow robust measurement of their adequacy
**Summary:** Many proposed AGI alignment procedures involve taking a pretrained **model** and training it using rewards from an **oversight process** to get a **policy**. These procedures might fail when the over... |
9e7e48e4-5f95-44c2-9dac-324e057225d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is it a bad idea to pay for GPT-4?
I don't want to accelerate an arms race, and paying for access to GPT seems like a perfect way to be a raindrop in a dangerous flood. My current idea is to pay an equal amount monthly to Miri. I'll view it as the price being $40 per month with half going to AI safety research.
Is th... |
0c4a0877-c88f-469d-817d-cb066074a971 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Ricerca sulla sicurezza delle IA: panoramica delle carriere
*This is an Italian translation of* [***AI Safety researcher career review***](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KHw3ezJzA7z3itWNW/ai-safety-researcher-career-review)
**In breve:** Per mitigare i rischi posti dallo sviluppo dell’intelligenza artifici... |
dec3aaa3-4efc-4931-9ebf-b458c9772dba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Slave Morality: A place for every man and every man in his place
Lately, there has been a discussion between Bentham's Bulldog, Scott Alexander and others about the nature of the slave morality. The outcome for me is that I no longer have any clue about what people meant by it, or, for that matter, what Nietzche once ... |
69048718-a200-4d12-a381-3a42d1154c70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Waterfall Ethics
I recently read Scott Aaronson's "Why Philosophers Should Care About Computational Complexity" (http://arxiv.org/abs/1108.1791), which has a wealth of interesting thought-food. Having chewed on it for a while, I've been thinking through some of the implications and commitments of a computationalist w... |
4e1d2c91-0fdc-4e7b-ae7c-ad3b60d9036f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Building Trust Through Testing
AUTHORS
Michèle A. Flournoy
Avril Haines
Gabrielle ChefitzBuilding Trust
through Testing
Adapting DOD’s Test & Evaluation, Validation &
Verification (TEVV) Enterprise for Machine Learning
Systems, including Deep Learning Systems
OCTOBER 2020
PRINT AND ELECTRONIC DISTRIBUTION RIGHTS
... |
290ce8db-1583-4fe8-9ec6-ccd3eba833c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Social behavior curves, equilibria, and radicalism
I.
Here are some hypotheticals to consider, with a common theme. Note that in each case I’m asking what you would do, rather than what you should do.
* In the fall, COVID cases drop to 10% of their current level. You’re back to working/studying in person. You’re va... |
3ffc0b1d-a270-48ee-a960-86fee4715707 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do I count as e/acc for exclusion purposes?
EDIT: THIS IS NOT APRIL FOOLS RELATED
ALSO: This is specific to the LW scene in Berkeley and nearby Berkeley, as this is the only place where e/acc exclusion is asserted to take place.
I haven't been around the LW scene for some time, but I understand it's common to exclud... |
3db12d45-b9fe-44c1-b0bc-4a8d8da93fbf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | ARC Evals: Responsible Scaling Policies
> We’ve been consulting with several parties[1](https://evals.alignment.org/blog/2023-09-26-rsp/#fn:1) on **responsible scaling**[**2**](https://evals.alignment.org/blog/2023-09-26-rsp/#fn:2) **policies (RSPs)**. An RSP specifies what level of AI capabilities an AI developer is ... |
ff305593-0f4a-4a92-b112-61489706b467 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Theoretical Alignment's Second Chance
Historically, I've gotten the impression from the AI Safety community that theoretical AI alignment work is promising in long timeline situations but less relevant in short timeline ones. As timelines have shrunk and capabilities have accelerated, I feel like I've seen theoretical... |
3700f96c-7911-4532-bb6c-b93ee2ebd92b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Florida Elections
I know people here are afraid of politics, but if my options are to vote with or without consulting a large group of people who think clearly, I'd rather choose the former.
I'm starting to research my positions for the Florida elections. I'm registered to vote in the Democratic Party's primary, but ... |
dfafc9a2-1aa3-4c00-9406-8e65e8644b90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Warsaw August Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Warsaw August Meetup
WHEN: 30 August 2015 03:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Warsaw
Location: Green Caffe Nero - Telimena, Krakowskie Przedmieście 27, Warszawa
Fb event: https://www.facebook.com/events/382397675303040/
Fb group: https://www.facebook.com/gro... |
d8aa8870-b093-4992-bc28-5c7b35aa9114 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does Probability Theory Require Deductive or Merely Boolean Omniscience?
It is often said that a Bayesian agent has to assign probability 1 to all tautologies, and probability 0 to all contradictions. My question is... exactly what sort of tautologies are we talking about here? Does that include all mathematical theo... |
3ab4c3b0-870b-4319-804e-7e2288197e06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Even if you're right, you're wrong
Epistemic status: I noticed a commonality between a set of rhetorical moves that I sometimes find irritating and sometimes think is valid.
You claim P? OK. But even if you’re right about P…
* … if I assume P, then I can prove not P. So, by contradiction, P is false. So you’re wron... |
417b1a27-47c4-4681-b8a9-641050eb5417 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Non-Unitary Quantum Logic -- SERI MATS Research Sprint
The following discussion was inspired by a comment on Vanessa Kosoy's Shortform regarding affine infradistributions. I expect the results here would not be considered surprising or novel by an expert in quantum logic or lattice theory. In particular [HTZ16[1]] sho... |
35a94fdb-e4f6-4f28-9b41-1acdbe68df12 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Impostor Syndrome as skill/dominance mismatch
I am surprised that there is nothing about Impostor Syndrome on Robin Hanson's website, when to me it seems obviously connected to status. To use the standard formula: Impostor Syndrome is not about lack of skills.
(Also related to: humility, status regulation, unpopulari... |
7d3c488e-d43e-40a0-a05a-378287010cdb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Fair Collective Efficient Altruism
In this post, I propose to explore a novel methodology by which a collective of decision makers (simply called *"we"* here) such as the current generation of humanity could make an *altruistic collective decision* in the following type of situation:
* The decision is about about a n... |
f03e7331-b457-4f62-9d04-bdb8c13ef5a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Cochrane on Existential Risk
The finance professor John Cochrane recently posted an interesting blog post. The piece is about existential risk in the context of global warming, but it is really a discussion of existential risk generally; many of his points are highly relevant to AI risk.
> If we [respond stron... |
2038c9dd-2cf7-4b5f-8535-f0639f4272bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Search versus design
This work was supported by OAK, a monastic community in the Berkeley hills. It could not have been written without the daily love of living in this beautiful community. The work involved in writing this cannot be separated from the sitting, chanting, cooking, cleaning, crying, correcting, fundrais... |
88189544-b203-4953-bb35-7e3c0ab8f5ab | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Utilitarianism is irrational or self-undermining
Summary
=======
Most moral impact estimates and cost-effectiveness analyses in the effective altruism community use (differences in) expected total welfare, but doing so generally is probably *irrational* based on arguments related to St Petersburg games:
1. Based on ... |
d0b64107-c86a-42c5-9fc8-286ccd2e4ba6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Single player extensive-form games as a model of UDT
This post was inspired by Benja's SUDT post. I'm going to describe another simplified model of UDT which is equivalent to Benja's proposal, and is based on standard game theory concepts as described in this Wikipedia article.
First let's define what is a "single pl... |
668d8cc6-c5d1-4308-b61d-dd685e1db26b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Be a little bit more trusting than most people think sensible
I am just working on a list of rationalist rules I live by, and this is the one I have most confidence in, so it seems a good topic for my first ever post (which will be short as I have to be on a train in 15)
Since people routinely exaggerate risk, and so... |
9a186420-6bc1-4d65-8d71-d5368ec7036c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Rationalist Fiction
Today's post, Rationalist Fiction was originally published on 19 March 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> What works of fiction are out there that show characters who have acquired their skills at rationality through practice, and who we can watch in the act of employing th... |
4f2b2907-d56c-4242-890a-ee5a5e513d74 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Livestreaming monetisation models aka What do camgirls have in common with Twitch streamers?
Repost from my personal blog / newsletter - feel free to subscribe if you like longform Chinese tech analysis.
In many ways, the internet was made for livestreaming. Starting with Jennicam back in 1996, it has taken the mediu... |
db6b366c-6251-45bb-b2c4-48cf316bc66d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing Open Philanthropy's AI governance and policy RFP
AI has enormous beneficial potential if it is governed well. However, in line with a growing contingent of AI (and other) experts from academia, industry, government, and civil society, we also think that AI systems could soon (e.g. in the next 15 years) caus... |
f411814a-e077-4419-8bd8-eb8a1db21fd5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #77: A Few Upgrades
[Apologies for forgetting to cross-post this and the Monthly Roundup earlier.]
Let’s see. We’ve got a new version of GPT-4o, a vastly improved Grok 2 with a rather good and unrestricted deepfake and other image generator now baked into Twitter, the announcement of the AI powered Google Pixel 9 ... |
a17532c5-426b-4e0f-a3c1-30e4fb951eb3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Research update: Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators
Last week, ARC released a paper called Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators, which follows up on previous work on formalizing the presumption of independence. Most of the work described here was done in 2023.
A... |
f2d70b32-ab5e-41a1-8574-5f6f68cabe2e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes October 2013
Another month has passed and here is a new rationality quotes thread. The usual rules are:
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post t... |
ed9bb476-1742-4f70-8749-4a39e77b85f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ethicophysics II: Politics is the Mind-Savior
We present an ethicophysical treatment on the nature of truth and consensus reality, within the framework of a historical approach to ludic futurecasting modeled on the work of Hegel and Marx. We prove an ethicophysical approximate conservation law: the Conservation of Bul... |
603a36b3-2f06-4f63-abce-dae7c3a340d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A freshman year during the AI midgame: my approach to the next year
I recently spent some time reflecting on my career and my life, for a few reasons:
* It was my 29th birthday, an occasion which felt like a particularly natural time to think through what I wanted to accomplish over the course of the next year 🙂.
... |
52951d7a-d34e-4634-b408-01a26850f905 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | The Al Does Not Hate You: Superintelligence, Rationality and the Race to Save the World
[]
For Billy and Ada. I hope the people in this book are right,
and that you live to see humanity reach the stars.
[]
Contents
Dedication
Title Page
Introduction: ‘I don’t expect your children to die of old age’
PART ONE: I... |
51934d34-7763-4040-be0a-4c3e5f113188 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Antelligence
(This post uses a more generalized definition of "simulator" than the one used in Simulators. Simulators, as defined here, are functions optimized towards some arbitrary range of inputs, and without requirements on how the function was created. If you need to distinguish between the two definitio... |
fb510b86-e69d-4717-aaa5-9ac18f0eaafc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Planes are still decades away from displacing most bird jobs
Originally published here: <https://guzey.com/ai/planes-vs-birds/>
*Note: Parts of this essay were written by GPT-3, so it might contain untrue facts.*
Introduction
------------
Many of my friends are extremely excited by planes, rockets, and helicopters.... |
a766d17e-dd07-451e-9d98-911def3cb164 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Summary: Zero to One
Summary. Zero to one is a collection of notes on startups by Peter Thiel (co-founder of PayPal and Palantir) that grew from a course taught by Thiel at Stanford in 2012. Its core thesis is that iterative progress is insufficient for meaningful progress. Thiel argues that the world can only be... |
7d7409d1-48b1-4aea-b461-4aeedd6a61a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What sorts of systems can be deceptive?
This work was done as part of SERI MATS, under Leo Gao’s guidance. Thank you to Erik Jenner and Johannes Treutlein for discussions and comments on the draft.
I’m interested in understanding deception in machine intelligence better. Specifically, I want to understand what precur... |
d6d1b496-1fc6-41ab-b692-772403b1b4a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there any discussion on avoiding being Dutch-booked or otherwise taken advantage of one's bounded rationality by refusing to engage?
From https://www.gwern.net/mugging:
> One way to try to escape a mugging is to unilaterally declare that all probabilities below a certain small probability will be treated as zero. ... |
cabb04a2-8724-4f65-ab1b-ade05ac78f44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | deluks917 on Online Weirdos
Cross-posted from Putanumonit.
This is part 1 of an interview with deluks917. Stay tuned for part 2 in which we talk about Buddhism and peanut butter, and part 3 which covers archetypes, superego poisoning, and Moana.
Since I have a face for radio and a voice for blogging, our conversatio... |
ab03ec14-af46-4713-927a-5ce50c6ada3e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A brief note on Simplicity Bias
The idea of 'simplicity bias' is a popular one in informal discussions about the functions that neural networks implement. I recently tried to think a little bit more about what this meant. This brief note was written mostly for my own benefit, but could be of benefit to others. Having ... |
5f78bbf0-ee7b-4e14-95da-c0d60989769e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Newbie's Guide to Navigating AI Futures
This article was crossposted from my website. Original linked here.
The piece was written using great ideas from Max Tegmark, Matt Ridley, Dave Shapiro, Aswath Damodaran, Anton Korinek, Marc Andreesen, L Rudolph L, Bryan Johnson, Kevin Kelly, Sam Altman, Eliezer Yudkowski,... |
610783c7-1b7e-49a9-8004-004b21ed2251 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Antitrust and Artificial Intelligence (AAI): Antitrust Vigilance Lifecycle and AI Legal Reasoning Autonomy
1
Abstract
There is an increa sing inter est in the entwining of the
field of antitrust with the field of Artificial Intelligence
(AI), frequently referred to jointly as Antitrust and AI
(AAI) in the re... |
fa91eaf3-1262-46ed-9a25-75be418f9d1e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intuition and Unconscious Learning
Part of the sequence: Rationality and Philosophy
We have already examined two sources of our intuitions: the attribute substitution heuristics and our evolved psychology. Today we look at a third source of our intuitions: unconscious learning.
UNCONSCIOUS LEARNING
The 'learnin... |
ed41080c-2463-4546-ac2d-46bca452d6b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How did my baby die and what is the probability that my next one will?
Summary: My son was stillborn and I don't know why. My wife and I would like to have another child, but would very much not like to try if the probability of this occurring again is above a certain threshold (of which we have already settled on one... |
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