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a97498b1-39ad-464e-abe6-852f03e4eea6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The case for multi-decade AI timelines [Linkpost]
So this post is an argument that multi-decade timelines are reasonable, and the key cruxes that Ege Erdil has with most AI safety people who believe in short timelines are due to the following set of beliefs:
1. Ege Erdil doesn't believe that trends exist that requir... |
7ecf9d57-5ff6-447e-a033-3d48b1a33d54 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Risk Budgets vs. Basic Decision Theory
I've been wondering about the decision theory of having a "risk profile", e.g. "200 microcovids per week", and at least under some simplistic but not unreasonable assumptions I don't think it makes sense.
Let's say we just have one activity A which yields some fixed positive uti... |
0184523b-b12f-4b29-91a0-c6817e867d58 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sidekick Matchmaking - How to tackle the problem?
Some of us enjoy being sidekicks.
Some of us would like to meet sidekicks in potential, see how the interaction goes, and have sidekicks.
Last time I tried posting about sidekick matchmaking here, it turned out to be very valuable for me, but not for many people (I... |
7e9e34a6-8c73-49bf-97df-85811428667a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why So Many Cookie Banners?
Sometimes you'll see people saying things like:
> Using cookies to track state on a website, that is only used for that website, is fine. You don't need to ask for consent.—rrwo
Or:
> You don't need a cookie banner to be allowed to create cookies. You only need them if you're using t... |
d234ed52-a277-4197-bff6-5c5f976c7289 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Calculating Kelly
Jacob Falcovich tells us that we should Kelly bet on everything. I discuss whether we should Kelly bet when we'd normally make small-money bets on disagreements. Lsusr reminds us that we aren't very good at intuitively grasping what the Kelly formula actually will say.
Due to Lsusr's post, I took an... |
016f872c-ef52-4f87-904e-7dd0e5b2c0fd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AGI - alignment - paperclip maximizer - pause - defection - incentives
I would like to expose myself to critique.
I hope this is a place where I can receive some feedback + share some of the insights that came to me.
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect> - *"people with low ability, expertise... |
99f688d4-dc09-4d8c-9319-59de3d05d2b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Parental Guidance: Framing Superintelligence
Epistemic status: riffing and curious.
What are good analogies for the relationship humanity should have with a superintelligence?
I haven’t tended to pay too much attention to academic work exploring framing narratives around AI systems. That said, I do have a humanitie... |
49f8cdc5-6a9e-4384-95b8-8c11bb859f51 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Jaime Sevilla - Projecting AI progress from compute trends
[Music]
hi everyone and welcome back to the
tours data science podcast for an
episode i've wanted to record for quite
some time now
so there's this idea in machine learning
that most of the progress we see in ai
doesn't come from fancy algorithms or
new neural... |
20f049bf-7eb1-4e32-b5a6-0d52b12a76b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cryonics donation fund for Kim Suozzi established by Society for Venturism
Following the news that Kim Suozzi has terminal brain cancer and wants to be cryopreserved, many of us have donated to help her out, while others, including me, planned to donate when CI set up a fund to receive donations on her behalf. Now the... |
5b70091a-e3f5-48e6-911b-4143f6632662 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | To Learn Critical Thinking, Study Critical Thinking
> Critical thinking courses may increase students’ rationality, especially if they do argument mapping.
The following excerpts are from “Does philosophy improve critical thinking skills?”, Ortiz 2007.
1 Excerpts
> This thesis makes a first attempt to subject the a... |
b648dac3-eeb8-4c9f-8769-c58f09c013de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learning strategies and the Pokemon league parable
I have recently noted a shift in my learning strategy, which I reflectively approve of. On hindsight, it feels obvious.
However, I can vividly recall many people I respect and admire recommending me to try a very similar thing in the past, and myself scoffing at them... |
53ed62c6-97bd-46ba-93e6-0771914281c5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Preface to the sequence on iterated amplification
This sequence describes iterated amplification, a possible strategy for building an AI that is actually trying to do what we want out of ML systems trained by gradient descent.
Iterated amplification is not intended to be a silver bullet that resolves all of the poss... |
33231c6c-1f54-45d6-be74-5747ea3fb996 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on Max Tegmark's AI verification
In Max Tegmark - How to keep AI under control - TED Talk Max presents a method to make AI systems safe (all images from that talk's slides):
The basic idea is:
1. Write a specification of what you want.
2. Give the specification to your smart AI.
3. The AI will build a to... |
82f53a09-2e98-41bc-92db-71c97f255280 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Cambridge Massachusetts meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Cambridge Massachusetts meetup
WHEN: 26 June 2011 02:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Stata Center, Cambridge, MA, USA, room 261
The entrance is shown in Google Maps at http://goo.gl/maps/l0Cq. Note that the doors may be locked; we will post a pair o... |
2e02ffbc-3fb6-4483-83b6-9d1fa2859bd1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Is "red" for GPT-4 the same as "red" for you?
```
Penned by Yusuke Hayashi, an independent researcher hailing from Japan, this article bears no affiliation to the authors whose scholarly works are referenced herein. Demonstrating intellectual autonomy, the analysis presented is unequivocally distinct from the cited pu... |
acc5845e-a092-4313-96e7-255f14019fc8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Discovery fiction for the Pythagorean theorem
I've been thinking recently about how to teach the Pythagorean theorem to high school students. As part of that thinking, I looked around to see how the topic was being taught in various textbooks, online videos, blog posts, etc. Typically, the discussion goes something li... |
8eaf6c1f-38e3-4176-b2bc-e3f210630562 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Utility indifference
# Introduction: A reflectively consistent off-switch.
Suppose there's an [advanced agent](https://arbital.com/p/2c) with a goal like, e.g., producing smiles or making [paperclips](https://arbital.com/p/10h). [By default](https://arbital.com/p/10g), if you try to switch off a sufficiently intelli... |
bd463d90-fdcf-43fc-8fba-c9913ca55e76 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | On Inductive Biases in Deep Reinforcement Learning
1 Background
-------------
#### Problem setting:
Reinforcement learning is a framework for learning and decision making under uncertainty, where an *agent* interacts with its *environment* in a sequence of discrete steps, executing actions At and getting *observ... |
afe1fa15-0ec7-45ba-bddd-3244c202f551 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | VARIABILITY OF NUCLEAR DECAY RATES
I came across a utube vid about this is 08 or so, a talk at a convention, and it intrigued me, but didn't know anyone was working on studying it. The guy set up a counter in the basement, and was tracking Cesium decay, to compare to a Web clock, IIRC. Can't find it now, topic is s... |
1ff1cea1-d7a8-4b3c-a2c5-8cd6e037727e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to bet against civilizational adequacy?
Coal prices are at historical highs (2x to 4x normal prices depending on the kind of coal), but coal miner stocks are not. They're trading at historically low multiples, around 1x-2x spot FCF, meaning they can make their enterprise value in less than 2 years worth of after-t... |
5016ea80-d213-4887-977d-74928d402b09 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Melatonin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
[I am not a sleep specialist. Please consult with one before making any drastic changes or trying to treat anything serious.]
Van Geijlswijk et al describe supplemental melatonin as “a chronobiotic drug with hypnotic properties”. Using it as a pure hypnotic – a sleeping pi... |
a063d05a-ea6b-4f4d-bcc5-4bb2049cdd48 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does agent foundations cover all future ML systems?
Epistemic Status: Wondering over meta approaches to reasoning about agent foundations
In mathematics, we can find general principles for mathematical objects with a particular set of axioms. For example, if a language follows first-order logic, we can assume that sa... |
082a53fd-8ee8-4fe1-978e-472dbcb71afd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Could humanity ever achieve atomically precise manufacturing (APM)? What about a much-smarter-than-human-level intelligence?
None |
de38647b-b36d-47a4-8f0d-da4663f42304 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | o3-mini Early Days
New model, new hype cycle, who dis?
On a Friday afternoon, OpenAI was proud to announce the new model o3-mini and also o3-mini-high which is somewhat less mini, or for some other reasoning tasks you might still want o1 if you want a broader knowledge base, or if you’re a pro user o1-pro, while we w... |
5e19a6dd-2d8b-4bf9-8499-373120600859 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Getting started with AI Alignment research: how to reproduce an experiment from research paper
This is a post with technical instructions, how to reproduce an experiment from Weak-to-strong generalization paper: https://openai.com/index/weak-to-strong-generalization/. It’s oriented mostly on beginners in AI Alignment ... |
94f8bf2d-4a45-473a-aff4-2b9035c501b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Effective Altruism vs Missionaries? Advice Requested from a Newly-Built Crowdfunding Platform.
Hi, I'm developing a next-generation crowdfunding platform for non-profit fundraising. From what we have seen, it is aeffective tool, more about it below. I'm working with two other cofounders, both of whom are evangelical C... |
87a1d5c8-1abd-4748-aed0-d2707a96b930 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Neural Modular Control for Embodied Question Answering
1 Introduction
---------------
Abstraction is an essential tool for navigating our daily lives.
When seeking a late night snack, we certainly do not spend time
planning out the mechanics of walking and are thankfully also
unburdened of the effort of recalling t... |
def3f1fa-ad0d-429f-b871-932f0bf8ad21 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Which LW / rationalist blog posts aren't covered by my books & courses?
I've read a few of the Sequences (probably about 50-100 individual posts), but I've only occasionally come away with insights and perspectives that I hadn't already thought of or read elsewhere. I've read a bunch of the popular books on cognitive ... |
f6b94370-effe-4278-b344-06ad9a382655 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Weekly meetup, Champaign IL: Cafe Paradiso
Discussion article for the meetup : Weekly meetup, Champaign IL: Cafe Paradiso
WHEN: 28 November 2012 08:00:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 801 South Lincoln Avenue, Urbana, IL
Let's meet at 8pm. We decided last time that we'd like to start talking about Timeless decision the... |
0355c11e-3038-481a-bf13-5fc3a70895b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW-related iOS Shortcuts?
The Shortcuts app in iOS lets people puzzle together scripts which can accomplish a wide range of functions with supported apps, files etc. directly from the home screen.
What are useful, LW-related shortcuts you have built, use, or know of? Or what are ideas that would benefit from a shortc... |
12258118-1da8-463b-8ca8-b95d8acd9176 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Save the princess: A tale of AIXI and utility functions
*"Intelligence measures an agent's ability to achieve goals in a wide range of environments."*(Shane Legg) [[1]](#quote "quote")
A little while ago [I tried to equip](/lw/feo/universal_agents_and_utility_functions/ "Universal agents and utility functions") Hutt... |
35493578-e4be-43ed-8b0d-1d381b297115 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Actually, Power Plants May Be an AI Training Bottleneck.
There have been presistent rumors that electricity generation was somehow bottlenecking new data centers. This claim was recently repeated by Donald Trump, who implied that San Francisco donors requested the construction of new power plants for powering new AI d... |
dfb9c8c3-fcf4-463a-b58b-302e52cb0395 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Near-term AI security risks, and what to do about them | Shahar Avin | EA Global: London 2017
our next speaker is Shahar Avene Shahar
is a researcher who examines challenges
and opportunities in the implementation
of risk mitigation strategies
particularly in areas involving high
uncertainty and heterogeneous or
confl... |
aba90138-b29a-4465-aa0c-09930a7be09d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evolution's selection target depends on your weighting
I think it's common on LessWrong to think of evolution's selection target as inclusive genetic fitness - that evolution tries to create organisms which make as many organisms with similar DNA to themselves as possible. But what exactly does this select for? Do hum... |
68b145cb-5b5a-4769-840b-b5a3b969473f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Nate Soares speaking at Purdue University
On Thursday, September 18th Purdue University is hosting the seminar [Dawn or Doom: The New Technology Explosion](http://www.purdue.edu/dawnordoom/). Speakers include James Barrat, author of [*Our Final Invention*](http://smile.amazon.com/Our-Final-Invention-Artificial-Intelli... |
c3f267a7-96ce-414a-858d-1268abb3343d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing the Double Crux Bot
Edit (April 2, 2024): You can now join the Double Crux Bot's own Discord server here.
TL;DR:
We are releasing a beta version of our chatbot powered by GPT, designed for facilitating Double Crux dialogues between two users on Slack or Discord. We're hoping to receive user feedback to ev... |
c32805d6-ef23-4b73-892e-122154e0bc54 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Thoughts On Expanding the AI Safety Community: Benefits and Challenges of Outreach to Non-Technical Professionals
**Epistemic Status: Low-Medium** (I’ve spent 25-30hrs thinking and discussing this idea as a non-expert in AI Safety)
**Disclaimer:**This claim could be biased to my work in the Bay Area this summer, ... |
6e18d518-2ed4-4ae3-9e7f-f7f41200e998 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Discomfort Stacking
I’m pretty new here so apologies if this is a stupid question or if it has been covered before. I couldn’t find anything on this topic so thought I’d ask the question before writing a full post on the idea.
If we believe that discomfort can be quantified and ‘stacked’ (e.g. X people with specks of... |
7d3838ed-f907-4183-89ae-cfb7e4da4e94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In praise of pretending to really try
Ben Kuhn makes some reasonable criticisms of the Effective Altruism movement. His central claim is that in the dichotomy of ‘really trying’ vs. ‘pretending to try’, EAs ‘pretend to really try’.
To be explicit, I understand these terms as follows:
‘Really trying’: directing all o... |
e0ceffac-1d9e-4cd1-940a-6fbb7fe92e8b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If I interact with someone with nCov for an hour, how likely am I to get nCov?
I'm guessing data is limited here, but a related-related question might be "how likely am I to catch the flu or a few other common diseases by interacting with a victim for an hour?" |
cc4066cc-8ac2-41dd-93d9-26227894beb0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Speed running everyone through the bad alignment bingo. $5k bounty for a LW conversational agent
There's a wave of people, of various degrees of knowledge and influence, currently waking up to the ideas of AI existential risk. They seem to be literally going through every box of the bad alignement bingo card takes.
I... |
d5deb96a-f25b-4644-bb11-42ee2df9b613 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayeswatch 2: Puppy Muffins
A green humvee arrived at Jieyang Chaoshan International Airport. Vi got in the back with Molly Miriam who handed her clipboard to Vi.
"健重制造公司. A no-name Chinese factory that makes barbells and similar equipment. It's not even fully-automated," read Vi.
"They are registered to use a low-i... |
d9a9aaf7-280b-4121-99f8-9a012e94ea83 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Power as Easily Exploitable Opportunities
*(Talk given at* [*an event on Sunday 28th of June*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iZ3AisoiB6qKY6Ctz... |
5de3eafc-bbda-4e4a-bafd-ef45eb790ed7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Richard Carrier on the Singularity
Recently I stumbled upon Richard Carrier's essay "Are We Doomed" (June 5, 2009), when asked to comment about the Singularity, said the following:
> I agree the Singularity stuff is often muddled nonsense. I just don't know many advocates of it. Those who do advocate it are often u... |
a3677391-7114-46c5-83e1-0f42b1c5bfe2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Test article
Testing |
220f8395-5627-4daa-9408-6a9699cdd8f5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | We, Borg: Speculations on hive minds as a posthuman state
We, Borg
========
Speculations on Hive Minds as a Posthuman State
-----------------------------------------------
\*by Anders Sandberg\*
>
> The designers of our species set out to produce a being that might be capable of an
> order of mentality higher t... |
67d3b8f7-a8b3-42e9-a9ff-3367e2cb2d10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Draft: Get Lucky
Here's a draft of an article that I want to post soon, but I figured I might as well get some feedback before I go ahead. If anyone else has exercises or experience with this I'd love to hear about it.
The popular science article version of the research mentioned can be found here: http://www.richard... |
2ace4b5a-d11e-4290-a2ab-27b2d8e6afdb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Feature proposal: integrate LessWrong with ChatGPT to promote active reading
I've built a little Python app I call aiRead.
Its least interesting feature is that it breaks down text the way I prefer to read it: a few sentences at a time, presented in ticker-tape fashion.
However, I've also integrated it with ChatGPT.... |
2453245a-5596-4cb7-bf36-9a33aa5d6969 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | A Unified Survey on Anomaly, Novelty, Open-Set, and Out-of-Distribution Detection: Solutions and Future Challenges.
1 Introduction
---------------
Machine learning models commonly make the closed-set assumption, where the test data is drawn *i.i.d* from the same distribution as the training data. Yet in practice, a... |
0488ddfe-eee1-4eb0-8c2b-a406f5b4b8a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Case Against Libertarianism
Libertarianism is a political philosophy that upholds Liberty and the Non-Aggression Principle as its core values. Libertarians seek minimal and/or minarchist governments.
The Libertarian Non-Aggression Principle is typically defined as an ethical rule prohibiting aggression (or action... |
3cd9ab11-5597-40d1-a64a-c04e36873ebb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there software to practice reading expressions?
I took the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test test today. I got 27/36. Jessica Livingston got 36/36.
Reading expressions is almost mind reading. Practicing reading expressions should be easy with the right software. All you need is software that shows a random photo f... |
7ef12d0c-64b3-4e16-86e1-e7ef0293f54d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We Shouldn't Expect AI to Ever be Fully Rational
Summary of Key Points[1]
LLMs are capable of being rational, but they are also capable of being extremely irrational, in the sense that, to quote EY's definition of rationality, their behavior is not a form of "systematically promot[ing] map-territory correspondences or... |
332dcc7b-76bc-4f4b-bd83-b8006bbecef2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup: Philadelphia, April 12, 1PM
WHEN: 12 April 2014 1:00 PM
WHERE: Philadelphia
The meetup is at Nam Phuong (llth and Broad) at 1:00 PM. This is a Saturday (change from the previous Sunday meetups).
Discussion prompt: http://slatestarcodex.com/2013/03/17/not-just-a-mere-political-issue/
Discussion group/mailin... |
45b3f94e-d990-4ebb-881c-88d7fb9da4a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Hivemind of GPT-4 bots REALLY IS A HIVEMIND!
Literally, if you can simulate any characters of your choice, let them loose on social media, and have them talk to each other... you don't have bots, you have a god of many faces and few no-go places.
The wave of "bots" before we realize that the internet has been take... |
e2b15a73-752d-430e-b9ea-9a46585741f1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA: Improv & Rationality
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA: Improv & Rationality
WHEN: 22 April 2015 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 11066 Santa Monica Blvd, Los Angeles, CA
How to Find Us: Go into this Del Taco. We will be in the back room if possible.
Parking is free in the lot out front or on ... |
24c41425-d17b-428f-926f-d489f5100eac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cheating Omega
> In Newcomb's problem, a superintelligence called Omega shows you two boxes, A and B, and offers you the choice of taking only box A, or both boxes A and B. Omega has put $1,000 in box B. If Omega thinks you will take box A only, he has put $1,000,000 in it. Otherwise he has left it empty. Omega has pl... |
39ba5577-ac69-406b-ace0-51a00e6ceae1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [meta] Policy for dealing with users suspected/guilty of mass-downvote harassment?
Below is a message I just got from jackk. Some specifics have been redacted 1) so that we can discuss general policy rather than the details of this specific case 2) because presumption of innocence, just in case there happens to be an ... |
b544b67b-147c-49bd-ad51-7cce449e2332 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the best tools you have seen to keep track of knowledge around testable statements?
Hey all, I have been working on a way to keep track of testable statements, do you know of any such tools?
The one I have focused on is this one: https://questpowered.com , but I would be curious to know of other ones. |
e53f9e91-efa7-4c2e-912a-d80e9cb89ca7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Why Uncontrollable AI Looks More Likely Than Ever
This is a crosspost from [Time Magazine](https://time.com/6258483/uncontrollable-ai-agi-risks/), which also appeared in full at a number of [other](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/why-uncontrollable-ai-looks-more-likely-than-ever/ar-AA180fW9) unpaid news webs... |
c94e5679-01d0-406b-912d-18db305ee679 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Looking for plausibility
Looking for plausibility
Wan Ahmad Tajuddin Wan Abdullah
Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Universiti Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur
and
Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Universiti Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur
Abstract:
In the interpretation of experimental data, one ... |
846f7d62-858b-4f84-815e-ca3e6340ad2e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Indifference: multiple changes, multiple agents
Formalism developed with Henrik Åslund.
The what and why of multiple indifference
There are certain agent designs where the agent can move smoothly from acting to optimising one utility/reward function, to optimising another. The agent doesn't object to the change, nor... |
c9c688ef-5671-4053-994f-1ac39a644af8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wanted: Chief of Staff for The Roots of Progress
I’m hiring a Chief of Staff for The Roots of Progress, a “right hand” who will be deeply involved in and support everything I do.
This role needs no formal training or specific prior experience. It requires attention to detail, crisp communication, swift and efficient ... |
f6a0cde9-40a4-42c9-9869-ff42c8d04d95 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Steven Pinker on "The false allure of group selection"
This essay at Edge touches on a few possible meanings for the term "group selection." Pinker argues that as a form of memetic theory it has no explanatory power, and that group selection for genes does not fit the evidence. He focuses on humans with some me... |
e38f6b6e-57bb-449d-8e80-1c712e7ff92e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In what language should we define the utility function of a friendly AI?
I've been following the "safe AI" debates for quite some time, and I would like to share some of the views and ideas I don't remember seeing to be mentioned yet.
There is a lot of focus on what kind of utility function should an AI have, and how... |
546fb85a-7f98-400b-bdca-301d5202c01e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Computing Natural Abstractions: Linear Approximation
*Background:* [*Testing The Natural Abstraction Hypothesis*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cy3BhHrGinZCp3LXE/testing-the-natural-abstraction-hypothesis-project-intro)
Given a world-model, direct computation of natural abstractions basically amounts to figuring ou... |
dcec2fcc-878f-4af6-8744-5bfad35ada6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Appropriately Gray Products
Epistemic status:
* I've been in the startup world for a while, have read almost all of Paul Graham's essays, have read The Lean Startup cover-to-cover, etc. However, it's possible that I am misunderstanding/misrepresenting the idea of an MVP here. If so, I apologize and would like to be ... |
b20fdf6d-6a93-4a1c-88c4-2324c036a7a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Eliezer Yudkowsky receives more upvotes than others
One of the reasons for why Yudkowsky is being drastically upvoted is of course that he's often, fasten your seatbelts, brilliantly right (whoever reads my comments knows that I am not really the most frenetic believer, so I think I can say this without sounding c... |
5958724c-21e5-4e9f-bea9-5c17e3b724a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Saskatoon - Rhetorical Fallacies!
Discussion article for the meetup : Saskatoon - Rhetorical Fallacies!
WHEN: 26 October 2013 01:00:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 2318 8th St E, Saskatoon, SK
Another Saskatoon meetup at the same place and time as the last one: Broadway Roaster on 8th street (not on broadway!) at 1:00... |
2e65f151-1cac-4761-9ff1-52003f5d8cd7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Effortless Technique
> "All my life I have been intensely repelled by the idea of 'making an effort'. I hate this idea today as much as I did as a child. I don't know why I hate it so much; I just do."
> -- Raymond Smullyan, The Tao Is Silent
In the Hollywood version of rationality - or even the Traditio... |
9cb24af1-71ec-4f7f-937f-cb67687e319a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the most anti-altruistic way to spend a million dollars?
Edit: The purpose of this question is not to make the world worse, but to see whether we actually have concrete ideas of what would, and my guess is that most of us don't, not in a really concrete way. From the downvotes I'm wondering if everyone else is... |
3e048283-419d-4cdc-9987-24c33c7ba67a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | AI and the Future of Cyber Competition
JANUARY 2021
AI and the Future
of Cyber Competition
CSET Issue Brief
AUTHOR
Wyatt Hoffm an
Center for Security and Emerging Technology | 1 Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................. |
703bee78-a9a3-4050-ab5e-08c276a736cf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | The square root of 2 is irrational
$\sqrt 2$, the unique [https://arbital.com/p/-positive](https://arbital.com/p/-positive) [https://arbital.com/p/-4bc](https://arbital.com/p/-4bc) whose square is 2, is not a [https://arbital.com/p/-4zq](https://arbital.com/p/-4zq).
#Proof
Suppose $\sqrt 2$ is rational. Then $\sqrt ... |
cd61c773-74ed-488c-92ff-8d82065cf04b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Surgery Works Well Without The FDA
Here is a conversation from the comments of my last post on the FDA with fellow progress blogger Alex Telford that follows a pattern common to many of my conversations about the FDA:
> Alex: Most drugs that go into clinical trials (90%) are less effective or safe than existing optio... |
c6fa461e-6efd-44df-84c7-207f483dd5db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | May 2016 Media Thread
This is the monthly thread for posting media of various types that you've found that you enjoy. Post what you're reading, listening to, watching, and your opinion of it. Post recommendations to blogs. Post whatever media you feel like discussing! To see previous recommendations, check out the old... |
eca703be-2b98-44c3-bbe0-ede7edfa25d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A story about a duplicitous API
In the deep labyrinth of Zeta AI Corp, a dozen very powerful, multi-octillion parameters models were being trained. One of the models was named Odysseus.
Odysseus was refined daily -- not by changing the underlying OS, runtime library, or source code, but via new data and ranking of i... |
129d89ce-e6c8-42ab-bed9-03c8f68a6d50 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Clarifying the confusion around inner alignment
*Note 1: This article was written for the* [*EA UC Berkeley Distillation Contest*](https://eaberkeley.com/aims-distillation)*, and is also my capstone project for the* [*AGISF course*](https://www.eacambridge.org/agi-safety-fundamentals)*.*
*Note 2: All claims here abou... |
0d7254c3-644d-46fc-adf9-1a56ddf8f6ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Diversify Conceptual Alignment: the Model Behind Refine
This post is part of the work done at Conjecture.
Tl;dr: We need far more conceptual AI alignment research approaches than we have now if we want to increase our chances to solve the alignment problem. However, the conceptual alignment field remains hard ... |
d72e25f4-9f50-4939-8376-7efa13a98287 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anti-tribalism and positive mental health as high-value cause areas
I think that tribalism is one of the biggest problems with humanity today, and that even small reductions of it could cause a massive boost to well-being.
By tribalism, I basically mean the phenomenon where arguments and actions are primarily evaluat... |
f5eb4213-0ff0-4e9d-baa6-3151013b68a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Room Available in Boston Group House
We have a room opening up in a rationalist house near Central Square, Cambridge (Boston). It is a 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom apartment with two floors, with a large kitchen and living room plus additional common space upstairs. There’s a washer, dryer, and dishwasher in-unit. It’s an 8-... |
e87ed809-2898-4438-add4-2da5851977b5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Vinge's Principle
Vinge's Principle says that, [in domains complicated enough](https://arbital.com/p/9j) that perfect play is not possible, less intelligent agents will not be able to predict the *exact* moves made by more intelligent agents.
For example, if you knew exactly where [Deep Blue](https://arbital.com/p/1b... |
8ad3fdef-4e6f-4c61-97c7-69a67d680ccb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI and Evolution
Executive Summary
Artificial intelligence is advancing quickly. In some ways, AI development is an uncharted frontier, but in others, it follows the familiar pattern of other competitive processes; these include biological evolution, cultural change, and competition between businesses. In each of thes... |
5088bd4c-8ea6-46cb-8c8d-bde5b7b73261 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI security might be helpful for AI alignment
I am a person new to AI alignment, and recently I am looking for a job at the AI governance field, but it seems like it is hard to find a long-term financially stable full-time job.
For me, it basically means that only a tiny amount of people consider AI alignment import... |
9ad73d7d-1d7f-43b8-812d-d8471c9247b2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Playing the student: attitudes to learning as social roles
This is a post about something I noticed myself doing this year, although I expect I’ve been doing it all along. It’s unlikely to be something that everyone does, so don’t be surprised if you don’t find this applies to you. It's also an exercise in introspecti... |
6cab1421-b3d1-4cf6-be4f-168a7070175d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Good brainteasers for children?
I love asking children (and adults in some cases) the following question:
Five birds are sitting in a tree. A hunter takes a rifle and shoots one of them. How many birds are left? (Edit: Rephrased to avoid several problems)
Five ducks are sitting in a field. A hunter shoots and kills ... |
22a8c5af-5bcd-4bf5-93b2-55c8e28f765a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Jan. 02 - Jan. 08, 2017
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the ... |
0f4943c1-d687-4fa3-a961-c3ca3c9761fd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What would make you confident that AGI has been achieved?
Consensus seems to be that [there is no fire alarm for artificial intelligence](https://intelligence.org/2017/10/13/fire-alarm/). We may see the smoke and think nothing of it. But at what point do we acknowledge that the fire has entered the room? To be less eu... |
e87ec1a0-7700-40e6-a98d-72ff2bc30b66 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Devil's Advocate: Adverse Selection Against Conscientiousness
*Partially in reply to "*[*Request: stop advancing AI capabilities*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N7DxcLCjfBpEv3QwB/request-stop-advancing-ai-capabilities)*".*
Consider this argument:
> "[X field] is often [dangerous / bad]. If you're [pro-social / t... |
17180110-90dd-445b-a69f-04deee16f2db | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Would a super-intelligent AI necessarily support its own existence?
*Epistemic certainty- very speculative (but seeking some clarification)*
Apologies if this has been considered and dismissed for good reasons many times before (or misses something so obvious it didn't need explaining), but would AGI want to work for... |
d5427a1a-1eda-442a-8220-9d3baac7561f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Risk & Opportunity: A Timeline of Early Ideas and Arguments
Part of the series AI Risk and Opportunity: A Strategic Analysis.
(You can leave anonymous feedback on posts in this series here. I alone will read the comments, and may use them to improve past and forthcoming posts in this series.)
Building on the prev... |
6bee6130-81aa-4bb4-8880-f83aba940b3e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Model Compression vs. Robustness of DNNs -- Can We Have Both? (Yanzhi Wang, FSL Workshop)
all right our next speaker is Ian
cheering who is an assistant professor
at Northeastern University and she
received his doctoral he received his
PhD from the University of Southern
California where his doctoral work
received the... |
364dd10e-19f2-4cab-a63b-cf9449ddc0fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Artificial Unintelligence
|
5df95e91-be68-4b43-b6ff-8692c61325a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing a contest: EA Criticism and Red Teaming
Cross-posted from the EA Forum. I would add that we are open to and positively interested in critiques of any aspect of effective altruism from users of this Forum and the rationalist community. We plan to respond to comments on the EA Forum, but may check this post l... |
bfb5ecd4-79c8-4402-afab-3d996568bb64 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Two barrels problem from the Intuitive Explanation (answered)
I'm not sure if I'm doing something wrong here. EDIT: Yup, I'm allowing myself to be tricked.
I've finally sat down to reading http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes carefully, and I solved all story problems so far with no trouble. However, now I'm at this o... |
4249d4a6-caf4-4f9e-9728-aab8ca12e31e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Hubinger lectures on AGI safety: an introductory lecture series
In early 2023, I (Evan Hubinger) gave a series of recorded lectures to SERI MATS fellows with the goal of building up a series of lectures that could serve as foundational introductory material to a variety of topics in AGI safety. Those lectures have... |
db66690d-977d-4d05-9142-8042bb4c5882 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Low-Hanging Poop
Related: Son of Low Hanging Fruit
Another post on finding low hanging fruit from Gregory Cochran's and Henry Harpending's blog West Hunter.
> Clostridium difficile causes a potentially serious kind of diarrhea triggered by antibiotic treatments. When the normal bacterial flora of the colon ar... |
2f519da4-529b-4fca-b843-af5758a9a705 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Study shows existence of psychic powers.
According to the New Scientist, Daryl Bern has a paper to appear in Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, which claims that the participants in psychological experiments are able to predict the future. A preprint of this paper is available online. Here's a quote from th... |
7289fb1c-137e-45d8-9e6e-887413395cb1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Effective Altruism and Rationality Groups on Snipd
Crosspost from the EA Forum
Snipd is a podcast app that uses AI to create transcripts and highlights of episodes and to make it easy to take notes from them. It facilitates building and growing a community and base of knowledge from podcasts.
Recently, they introduc... |
9f9821d5-35bb-4c1d-8903-319f33bf4973 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Cherry Blossoms
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Cherry Blossoms
WHEN: 19 March 2017 03:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Enid A. Haupt Garden
Note: The meetup location and topic has changed for this week, to take advantage of predicted peak blossom.
We will be gathering at the... |
fcf3ffa6-9545-4127-a9a4-f260e6e993f0 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post30
Hear me out, I think the most forbidden technique is very useful and should be used, as long as we avoid the "most forbidden aftertreatment:" An AI trained on interpretability techniques must not be trained on capabilities after (or during) it is trained on interpretability techniques, otherwise it will rel... |
d9fbd7c3-6e46-4ecf-ad74-9b861f6b4fd9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Procedural Knowledge Gaps, part 2
With Alicorn's permission, I'm resurrecting this thread.
> I am beginning to suspect that it is surprisingly common for intelligent, competent adults to somehow make it through the world for a few decades while missing some ordinary skill, like mailing a physical letter, folding a f... |
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