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77cdab61-64c7-400e-9546-f1c1433eb046 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When will total cases in the EU surpass that of China?
Pretty much says it all. Bloomburg show the count for Europe as 64 thousand and doesn't look like the curve is ready to level off.
Do people think a couple of days for Europe to exceed China's (near 81,000) or more?
The follow up is what will be the total? |
6b103c5b-ca25-47d5-9dca-48fb81f1a5d1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Decision Theories: A Semi-Formal Analysis, Part I
Or: The Problem with Naive Decision Theory
------------------------------------------
**Previously:** [Decision Theories: A Less Wrong Primer](/lw/aq9/decision_theories_a_less_wrong_primer/)
**Summary of Sequence:** *In* *the context of a tournament for computer pr... |
e481daa0-1b3a-4105-a05e-9c78f4a8349e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | U.S. Government Seeks Input on National AI R&D Strategic Plan - Deadline May 29
(Post written by Claude Opus)
The National Science Foundation is requesting public input on updating the National AI Research and Development Strategic Plan, following President Trump's Executive Order 14179 on AI leadership.
What they'r... |
6de32a91-7f5c-42f6-9f00-ad4e2c46acef | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [ASoT] Reflectivity in Narrow AI
*I wrote this a month ago while working on my SERI MATS applications for shard theory. I'm now less confident in the claims and the usefulness of this direction, but it still seems worth sharing.*
I think reflectivity happens [earlier then you might think](https://www.lesswrong.com/po... |
b6f2ba84-decb-4e62-818e-a832ad732a24 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Proof of Doom
Epistemic Status: Ravings
Importance: Easily the most important problem in the world. If we can escape the proof of doom, we will likely also solve all our other problems as a side effect, and all that remains will be the fundamental limits. Our new questions will be things like "How much joy can th... |
5438d3b3-48c9-4a18-b298-1298d08e28af | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | an Evangelion dialogue explaining the QACI alignment plan
*this post was written by [Tamsin Leake](https://carado.moe) at [Orthogonal](https://orxl.org).*
*thanks to [Julia Persson](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/juliahp) and [mesaoptimizer](https://mesaoptimizer.com/) for their help putting it together.*
an Eva... |
34a2dcef-82f5-447d-9de2-3ffc89228a12 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Knows What It Knows: A Framework For Self-Aware Learning
Knows What It Knows: A Framework For Self-Aware Learning
Lihong Li lihong@cs.rutgers.edu
Michael L. Littman mlittman@cs.rutgers.edu
Thomas J. Walsh thomaswa@cs.rutgers.edu
Department of Computer Science, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854 USA
Abstract
We i... |
210cf5bc-b7af-495c-974c-4687d63b51a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2021 Darwin Game - Ocean
The Ocean has lots of algae, a little carrion and a little detritus. It was the most popular biome, with 131 native species.
Name Carrion Leaves Grass Seeds Detritus Coconuts Algae Lichen Ocean 10 0 0 0 10 0 10,000 0
To thrive in this game as a forager you must survive the initial predator... |
61425ba5-e424-4f85-aade-f8237015dc59 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Do Artificial Reinforcement-Learning Agents Matter Morally?
Do Artificial Reinforcement-Learning Agents Matter Morally?
===========================================================
28 July 2016
by [Brian Tomasik](https://longtermrisk.org/author/brian-tomasik/ "Posts by Brian Tomasik")
Written: Mar.-Apr. 2014; last ... |
545eabe9-9535-4ec3-af09-16f4ddbfd16e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Socially Responsible AI Algorithms: Issues, Purposes, and Challenges
1 Introduction
---------------
Artificial intelligence (AI) has had and will continue to have a central role in countless aspects of life, livelihood, and liberty. AI is bringing forth a sea-change that is not only limited to technical domains, bu... |
fdde930c-c07f-4db4-b630-dc067a2e5168 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Polis: Why and How to Use it
Polis is a surveying platform designed for finding clusters of people with similar opinions on a topic. Participants submit short text statements(<140 characters) which are sent out semi-randomly[1] to other participants to vote on by clicking agree, disagree or pass.
This post provides ... |
8f4007b0-6cde-4dba-ac46-420d9d3c5eff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conformity
A rather good 10 minute YouTube video presenting the results of several papers relevant to how conformity affects our thinking:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrNIuFrso8I
The papers mentioned are:
Sherif, M. (1935). A study of some social factors in perception. Archives of Psychology, 27(187), pp.17-2... |
4254c9db-5685-4227-a16d-7dbf910a801a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Group Rationality Diary, April 15-29
This is the public group instrumental rationality diary for April 15-29.
> It's a place to record and chat about it if you have done, or are actively doing, things like:
>
> * Established a useful new habit
> * Obtained new evidence that made you change your mind about som... |
7bfcd275-7386-41ab-b894-a3caed1cd9a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SI is coming to Oxford, looking for hosts, trying to keep costs down
The Singularity Institute is coming to Oxford, England for AGI-2012!
AGI-2012 runs December 8th–11th, but many of us will be arriving as early as the 6th or 7th, and some will be leaving as late as the 16th. We are looking for generous members of t... |
61c2b923-6a8e-4a58-8ada-a2d1889299f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Useful Idea of Truth
(This is the first post of a new Sequence, Highly Advanced Epistemology 101 for Beginners, setting up the Sequence Open Problems in Friendly AI. For experienced readers, this first post may seem somewhat elementary; but it serves as a basis for what follows. And though it may be conventional... |
2e390de1-dfa7-4788-b354-2ad1dbb171bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learning the prior and generalization
This post is a response to Paul Christiano's post “Learning the prior.”
The generalization problem
Generally, when we train models, we often end up deploying them in situations that are distinctly different from those they were trained under. Take, for example, GPT-3. GPT-3 was ... |
7b27b94d-5eb5-465c-9f99-ce07cace0ce5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Vancouver New Year!
Discussion article for the meetup : Vancouver New Year!
WHEN: 30 December 2012 01:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: Benny's Bagels 2505 w broadway, vancouver
Hello vancouver lesswrongers,
Goddam Christmas is done creating chaos and now it's time to start a new year (judging the new year by the su... |
3b171a86-5586-4b03-878f-e863abf67600 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What technologies could cause world GDP doubling times to be <8 years?
Some people think GDP is a good metric for AI timelines and takeoff speeds, and that the world economy will double in 4 years before the start of the first 1-year doubling period, and that AGI will happen after the economy is already growing much f... |
b47a5379-07d6-4e21-8e02-f79adcc55e68 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dutch book question
I'm following Jack's Dutch book discussion with interest and would like to know about the computational complexity of constructing a Dutch book. If I give you a finite table of probabilities, is there a polynomial time algorithm that will verify that it is or is not Dutch bookable? Or: help me ma... |
f02ea050-6148-438f-bf48-a679f9d2346b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kevin Simler's "Going Critical"
An interactive blogpost by Kevin Simler on network dynamics, with a final section on academia and intellectual progress. I generally think careful exploration of small-scale simulations like this can help quite well with understanding difficult topics, and this post seems like a quite g... |
437bd10c-2007-4704-a863-b278c58f1f96 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What Program Are You?
I've been trying for a while to make sense of the various alternate decision theories discussed here at LW, and have kept quiet until I thought I understood something well enough to make a clear contribution. Here goes.
You simply cannot reason about what to do by referring to what program you... |
4d2d9ab9-878e-4690-9c67-97995e4f822e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inner Alignment in Salt-Starved Rats
(This post is deprecated. It has some kernels of truth but also lots of mistakes and confusions. You should instead read Incentive Learning vs Dead Sea Salt Experiment (2024), which covers many of the same topics. —Steve, 2024)
(See comment here for some corrections and retraction... |
db4ed14f-bb45-400e-8c95-66b944478104 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Assigning Praise and Blame: Decoupling Epistemology and Decision Theory
Your group/company/organization performs well, doing great work and dealing with new problems efficiently. As one of its leaders, you want to understand why, so that you can make it even more successful, and maybe emulate this success in other set... |
725062a9-860e-48c0-9340-6e7c89c4c253 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A (EtA: quick) note on terminology:
AI Alignment != AI x-safety
I think the terms "AI Alignment" and "AI existential safety" are often used interchangeably, leading the ideas to be conflated.
In practice, I think "AI Alignment" is mostly used in one of the following three ways, and should be used exclusively for Int... |
7e31fbca-775b-4a3e-902f-dcfa10c9c96e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : First meetup in Innsbruck
Discussion article for the meetup : First meetup in Innsbruck
WHEN: 02 December 2012 03:00:17PM (+0100)
WHERE: Innsbruck, Austria
Let's organize the first Lesswrong meetup of Innsbruck! To be part of this historical event just click on this doodle-survey and vote for your favorit... |
0b6b7358-ba00-49fd-ab85-68be5da2341e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Less Wrong Israel Meetup (Herzliya): Social and Board Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong Israel Meetup (Herzliya): Social and Board Games
WHEN: 04 September 2014 07:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: HaMada 5, Herzliya Pituach, Israel, EMC offices, floor 4
This time we're going to have a social meetu... |
0a07f5bd-ffda-42b8-9b63-eeb4d1b8fa45 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A brief history of the automated corporation
Looking back from 2041
When people in the early 21st Century imagined an AI-empowered economy, they tended to project person-like AI entities doing the work. “There will be demand for agent-like systems,” they argued, “so we’ll see AI labs making agents which can then be de... |
db32b739-a20f-412e-93cb-36cd43e7461f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Atlanta Lesswrong: Cryonics FAQ & Signing up Party!
Discussion article for the meetup : Atlanta Lesswrong: Cryonics FAQ & Signing up Party!
WHEN: 10 May 2013 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 2388 Lawrenceville Hwy. Apt L. Decatur, GA 30033
Transhumanism, radical life extension, and cryonics are areas that typical... |
e505b11a-31f5-4d92-9063-d03caef682cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Internet Literacy Atrophy
It’s the holidays, which means it’s also “teach technology to your elderly relatives” season. Most of my elderly relatives are pretty smart, and were technically advanced in their day. Some were engineers or coders back when that was rare. When I was a kid they were often early adopters of te... |
9afd050b-2912-4660-9f2a-874cee136ddc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGIs as collectives
Note that I originally used the term population AGI, but changed it to collective AGI to match Bostrom's usage in Superintelligence.
I think there’s a reasonably high probability that we will end up training AGI in a multi-agent setting. But in that case, we shouldn’t just be interested in how int... |
6d48e8a5-efbc-423f-8684-1aa53bb98f1a | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3312
Technical Appendix: First safeguard? This sequence is written to be broadly accessible, although perhaps its focus on capable AI systems assumes familiarity with basic arguments for the importance of AI alignment . The technical appendices are an exception, targeting the technically inclined. Why do... |
76993d9b-98c5-4f2d-8b0e-7bc7af1263ce | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | List of good AI safety project ideas?
Can we compile a list of good project ideas related to AI safety that people can work on? There are occasions at work when I have the opportunity to propose interesting project ideas for potential funding, and it would be really useful if there was somewhere I could look for proje... |
a95ca5c6-d630-480f-a5a8-5e12d62c9252 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety Needs Great Product Builders
In his AI Safety Needs Great Engineers post, Andy Jones explains how software engineers can reduce the risks of unfriendly artificial intelligence. Even without deep ML knowledge, these developers can work effectively on the challenges involved in building and understanding large... |
64340418-eefb-48f1-9259-b9329ec1da1e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Funding Good Research
Series: [How to Purchase AI Risk Reduction](/r/discussion/lw/cs6/how_to_purchase_ai_risk_reduction/)
I recently explained that one major project undergoing cost-benefit analysis at the Singularity Institute is that of a [scholarly AI risk wiki](/lw/cnj/a_scholarly_ai_risk_wiki/). The proposal i... |
0f48f390-cdb5-4047-bb29-24dedac8086a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the name of this fallacy?
I failed to identify whether this is a well-known fallacy, I would appreciate it if someone tells me what this is called.
The fallacy normally goes like this:
> I see you are very happy to criticize the government! Now go back to your place using the road that the government built ... |
29aef355-4078-457a-9fbe-2c63184b1a7f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I think I came up with a good utility function for AI that seems too obvious. Can you people poke holes in it?
Basically, the AI does the following:
Create a list of possible futures that it could cause.
For each person and future at the time of the AI's activation:
1. Simulate convincing that person that the futur... |
eb30ecb7-3a10-4caf-885e-df68007e9536 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Life
Whether AI is a life-form or not is a debate full of speculations. But it may occur not that tricky after all. Very much depends on how you define life in the first place.
You can approach the definition from different perspectives. One would be from the energy perspective — going against entropy growth... |
577b432a-35ce-47db-9cc8-73e2ed508fe7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | [Linkpost] Michael Nielsen remarks on 'Oppenheimer'
This is a linkpost to a recent blogpost from [Michael Nielsen](https://michaelnielsen.org/), who has previously written on [EA](https://michaelnotebook.com/eanotes/) among many other topics. This blogpost is adapted from a talk Nielsen gave to an audience working on ... |
52969161-328a-4be3-b4fa-37a0e37feb03 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Anthropics over-simplified: it's about priors, not updates
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-... |
67dc2c05-0939-4b4b-a544-41a62c802885 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Conclusion to the sequence on value learning
*This post summarizes the sequence on value learning. While it doesn’t introduce any new ideas, it does shed light on which parts I would emphasize most, and the takeaways I hope that readers get. I make several strong claims here; interpret these as my [impressions, not my... |
768ac058-f79a-4952-a657-36db78253825 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A question of rationality
Thank you For Your Participation
I would like to thank you all for your unwitting and unwilling participation in my little social experiment. If I do say so myself you all performed as I had hoped. I found some of the responses interesting, many them are goofy. I was honestly hoping that a b... |
5cdc4129-1a23-48bf-8ed8-88b0d640f3b9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Self-training with Noisy Student improves ImageNet classification
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep learning has shown remarkable successes in image recognition in recent years [[35](#bib.bib79 "Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks"), [66](#bib.bib133 "Going deeper with convolutions"), ... |
c3c04fd2-8218-49d5-a3cd-a45f3abda98b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Goal Setting and Goal Achievement
The reason people succeed is well-focused, regular, effort.
The reason for failure is more often lack of effort rather than the direction of the effort. For example, more people put on weight because they couldn't stick to their diet than those that chose a diet that wouldn't have ca... |
911176fa-0cb9-4754-b783-9a8683fd5ce3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Case For Giving To The Shrimp Welfare Project
Crosspost of this on my blog. I'd appreciate if you could share this, as, for reasons I'll explain, I think convincing people on this issue is insanely important.
> Open your mouth for the mute, for the rights of all who are destitute.
—Proverbs 31:8
Imagine that... |
a5eb34c0-a30a-4a99-a7f3-843cd70022d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Witching Hour
> “This above all: to thine own self be true.”
Thursday
Your successor is late again today. You already wrote your shift report, but you still need to onboard them personally, in case they have any questions that the report doesn’t answer. The servers you’re watching over are humming away smoothly,... |
377a8616-8435-4f08-8d0c-d16f6463f91d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayesian Judo
You can have some fun with people whose anticipations get out of sync with what they believe they believe.
I was once at a dinner party, trying to explain to a man what I did for a living, when he said: "I don't believe Artificial Intelligence is possible because only God can make a soul."
At this poin... |
80865581-b0e5-4342-8823-419a613c003c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Chicago Rationality Meeting: Applied Rationality Training
Discussion article for the meetup : Chicago Rationality Meeting: Applied Rationality Training
WHEN: 16 April 2017 01:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Harper Memorial Library Room 148, 1116 E 59th St, Chicago, IL 60637
The Chicago rationality group meets every... |
0ee966a8-7a3c-463b-8a53-1a42649f6605 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Compositionality and Ambiguity:
Latent Co-occurrence and Interpretable Subspaces
Matthew A. Clarke, Hardik Bhatnagar and Joseph Bloom
This work was produced as part of the PIBBSS program summer 2024 cohort.
tl;dr
* Sparse AutoEncoders (SAEs) are a promising method to extract monosemantic, interpretable features... |
bd1bfc29-8848-4e14-ab50-fb2b05d60036 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid-19: Things I'm Doing Differently
The coronavirus is now spreading through multiple communities, and while there isn't yet evidence of it in Boston I expect there will be soon. Because of the long incubation period and large testing delays it may already be here. Here are things I've started doing differently:
... |
26f305c0-35e4-4f6d-9b73-7f9c978e2930 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What kind of thing is logic in an ontological sense?
The existence of logic seems somewhat mysterious. It's this thing that seems to exist, but unlike other things that exist, it doesn't seem to exist anywhere in specific or in any tangible form. Further, while it is easy to mock Plato for mysticism when he posits per... |
bba9aea4-aa75-4e1b-89c5-96d3beb4be95 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Generative Temporal Difference Learning for Infinite-Horizon Prediction
1 Introduction
---------------
The common ingredient in all of model-based reinforcement learning is the dynamics model: a function used for predicting future states.
The choice of the model’s prediction horizon constitutes a delicate trade-off... |
f4689f28-ed2f-4e77-80fd-84592e45807a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Five Hindrances to Doing the Thing
> "Compare your normal level of consciousness with that of an athlete in the zone, or with a person in an emergency. You'll realize that daily life consists mostly of different degrees of dullness and mindlessness."
>
> - Culadasa (John Yates, Ph.D.), The Mind Illuminated
It ha... |
8618e7cd-09f3-4f46-8462-3cff3467ca86 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hope Can = Heaven
When we listen to stories of humans, of life and of death, we fail to fathom the complexity of the stories of all those who have lived before us. We tend to forget the hundreds of generations of humans that lived, worried, loved, and died prior to you being where you are now. You forget you are a mi... |
2f7c8737-2428-4d8a-bf48-0778ce9ab4c0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Machine Learning Explainability for External Stakeholders
\thesection Overview
---------------------
In its current form, explainable machine learning (ML) is not being used in service of transparency for external stakeholders. Much of the ML research claiming to explain how ML models work has yet to be deployed in... |
81cd17f3-c1a9-4168-a4d5-1d50a64b9dda | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How effective are tulpas?
Edit: After further consideration, I've concluded that the risk:reward ratio for tulpamancy isn't worth it and won't be pursuing the topic further. I may revisit this conclusion if I encounter new information, but otherwise I'm content to pursue improvements in a more "standard" fashion. Than... |
4456654a-3fc6-4037-89c2-0f039a36170e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Recreating the caring drive
TL;DR: This post is about value of recreating “caring drive” similar to some animals and why it might be useful for AI Alignment field in general. Finding and understanding the right combination of training data/loss function/architecture/etc that allows gradient descent to robustly find/cr... |
931ba4ef-3305-4262-838b-908fd854cc37 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Intrinsic vs. Extrinsic Alignment
This article addresses the interaction between the alignment of an artificial intelligence (AI) and the power balance between the AI and its handlers. It aims to clarify some definitions in a more general article, and to show that capability control and motivation control may have ide... |
791c7f58-6484-4379-9da7-a8aa0a8d4ec6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Train first VS prune first in neural networks.
This post aims to answer a simple question about neural nets, at least on a small toy dataset. Does it matter if you train a network, and then prune some nodes, or if you prune the network, and then train the smaller net.
What exactly is pruning.
-----------------------... |
0f251e06-7c33-4eb9-b099-f066c15a954d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I want to donate some money (not much, just what I can afford) to AGI Alignment research, to whatever organization has the best chance of making sure that AGI goes well and doesn't kill us all. What are my best options, where can I make the most difference per dollar?
I don't understand this field well, I'm hoping you... |
e9bb9a2a-e37f-4ece-8887-0cca2ebffd5f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Brief comment on featured
Someone asked me a meta question in the object level of this site (i.e. the frontpage), so I'm copying my reply here instead of continuing discussion there.
Me (on Chapter 1 of Inadequate Equilibria):
I've promoted this to Featured because it's a great piece of writing, and also because thi... |
b99b7751-cc98-4070-b10f-2076c178a6d0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Existential risk from AI without an intelligence explosion
[xpost from [my blog](http://alexmennen.com/index.php/2017/05/25/existential-risk-from-ai-without-an-intelligence-explosion/)]
In discussions of existential risk from AI, it is often assumed that the existential catastrophe would follow an intelligence explo... |
50c3fc6b-0f0b-48b2-8acd-aad7f8fbeed4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intuition should be applied at the lowest possible level
Earlier today I lost a match at Prismata, a turn-based strategy game without RNG. When I analyzed the game, I discovered that changing one particular decision I had made on one turn from A to B caused me to win comfortably. A and B had seemed very close to me at... |
429f4a10-aac9-4618-97f1-88ab966c49ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Online vs. Personal Conversations
When I was younger, I thought that conversations in real life were much more likely to promote true beliefs and meaningful changes than conversations online, because people in real life were only willing/able to cite evidence they were actually confident in, while those online were ab... |
c0286c35-b3c6-4c43-a80f-77b5a9e9e8ec | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Forecasting Compute - Transformative AI and Compute [2/4]
*Cross-posted [here on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/YNB39RyJ7iAQKGJvq/forecasting-compute-transformative-ai-and-compute-2-4)*.
*Transformative AI and Compute - A holistic approach - Part 2 out of 4*
This is part two of the series ... |
8efbbbe4-9e0b-4e5b-8a6a-acf90a281659 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reasons for Excitement about Impact of Impact Measure Research
Can we get impact measurement right? Does there exist One Equation To Rule Them All?
I think there’s a decent chance there isn’t a simple airtight way to implement AUP which lines up with AUPconceptual, mostly because it’s just incredibly difficult in gen... |
489c603a-e241-45e3-b75e-907808e8b6c2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Conditioning Predictive Models: The case for competitiveness
*This is the third of seven posts in the [Conditioning Predictive Models Sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/n3utvGrgC2SGi9xQX) based on the paper “[Conditioning Predictive Models: Risks and Strategies](https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.00805)” by Evan Hubin... |
614ba2ca-1107-4cda-a74d-e13a46c8e58f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Locating and Editing Knowledge in LMs
In my previous post I went over some common approaches for updating LMs with fresh knowledge. Here, I detail a specific approach that has gained popularity in recent years - locating and editing factual associations in language models. I do not believe in this approach, in this po... |
77405de2-4141-4c06-861d-eed9d38f6fa9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Old] Wayfinding series
As I said in the intro to the "mapmaking series" post, I'm reposting some content from my old blog that people found useful. They particularly found things I wrote in this series useful, and of the two series I agree that this is likely the more useful one, the former being reposted mainly beca... |
b5a126cf-9dad-47be-8b60-ed3fd7109564 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Credo AI is hiring!
Credo AI is hiring technical folks versed in responsible AI; if you are interested, please apply! If you aren’t a data scientist or other technical professional, but are inspired by our mission, please reach out. We are always looking for talented, passionate folks.
### **What is Credo AI?**
[Cre... |
0076f264-9722-4058-ac50-424fbdde1d8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Skepticism About DeepMind's "Grandmaster-Level" Chess Without Search
Update: Authors commented below that their unpublished results show that actually the bot is as good as described; many thanks to them.
The paper
First, addressing misconceptions that could come from the title or from the paper's framing as relevan... |
e2bb5492-e719-4e91-b311-c06cb9f28c80 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #80]: Why AI risk might be solved without additional intervention from longtermists
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWb... |
cf11eee8-10a5-4ea5-8a63-ac85020d3d0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Dallas - Fort Worth Less Wrong Meetup 5/13/12
Discussion article for the meetup : Dallas - Fort Worth Less Wrong Meetup 5/13/12
WHEN: 13 May 2012 01:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: America's Best Coffee, Arlington
Hello Dallas-Fort Worth LessWrongians! If you live in the area, and you haven't come out to meet us ye... |
1a3fa078-9526-49c9-b1de-60352325d160 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Longevity Insurance
Let's say we (as a country) ban life insurance and health insurance as separate packages [1] and require them to be combined in something I'll call "Longevity Insurance". The idea is that as a person/consumer, you can buy a "life expectancy" of 75 years, or 90 years, or whatever. In addition, you ... |
6fcdffa8-c2db-46ce-b7b7-80a8cc1b99d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Death and Desperation
I am worried about some of the tonal shifts around the future of AI, as it may relate to more vulnerable members of the community. While I understand Mr. Eudowski’s stance of “Death with Dignity,” I worry that it’s creating a dangerous feeling of desperation for some.
People make bad decisions ... |
c29b4bc4-6992-48a8-841f-c5791af607d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Operationalizing timelines
If you're forecasting AI progress or asking someone about their timelines, what event should you focus on?
tl;dr it's messy and I don't have answers.
AGI, TAI, etc. are bad. Mostly because they are vague or don't capture what we care about.
* AGI = artificial general intelligence (no can... |
bd4662d1-ec71-4fcc-a89a-094ff8f72ff7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are concepts for, and how to deal with alien concepts
|
eb118bd3-9b55-4c10-8aaa-c1660d4e6353 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Differential Progress and a Personal Commitment
Regarding the problem of differential progress in AI capability research vs AI Alignment research.
I intend to work in Artificial Intelligence, but I would want to pursue capability research over alignment research, and due to the nature of incentives in the two fields ... |
48ee3b4f-550c-42dd-8e55-1c2ffac10742 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Church-Turing thesis: Evidence for the Church-Turing thesis
As the Church-Turing thesis is not a [proper mathematical sentence](https://arbital.com/p/) we cannot prove it. However, we can collect [https://arbital.com/p/-3s](https://arbital.com/p/-3s) to increase our confidence in its correctness.
#The inductive argum... |
50ad28d7-e7ea-42e2-86cc-627a65fdd882 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Fresh FAQ on GiveWiki and Impact Markets Generally
Summary: This is an FAQ on the AI Safety GiveWiki at ai.givewiki.org. It’s open to anyone, and we’re particularly trying to attract s/x-risk projects at the moment! Some of the questions, though, apply to impact markets more generally. This document will give you an... |
1b4dcb04-149a-4618-a77b-22f08b4c53a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Apparent Reality of Physics
Follow-up to: Syntacticism
I wrote:
> The only objects that are real (in a Platonic sense) are formal systems (or rather, syntaxes). That is to say, my ontology is the set of formal systems. (This is not incompatible with the apparent reality of a physical universe).
In my experience... |
171b8fcb-c5da-4934-87b2-6ee99c9213b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | MILA gets a grant for AI safety research
http://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/montreal-institute-learning-algorithms-ai-safety-research
The really good news is that Yoshua Bengio is leading this (he is extremely credible in modern AI/deep lea... |
1ac4f260-ecea-4a6e-a3e4-3fff096428ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I'm Moving from Mechanistic to Prosaic Interpretability
Tl;dr I've decided to shift my research from mechanistic interpretability to more empirical ("prosaic") interpretability / safety work. Here's why.
All views expressed are my own.
What really interests me: High-level cognition
I care about understanding h... |
84dcd0b7-1838-4e07-bbfb-e416d75bf4a9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Matthias Troyer on Quantum Computers
![]() [](http://intelligence.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/image.jpg)
[Dr. Matthias Troyer](http://www.itp.phys.ethz.ch/people/troyer) is a professor of Computational Physics at ETH Zürich. Before that, he finis... |
27ce4e3c-b084-4e0c-8139-90b10c9ce640 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do Antidepressants work? (First Take)
I've been researching the controversy over whether antidepressants truly work or whether they are not superior to a placebo. The latter possibility really contains two possibilities itself: either placebos are effective at treating depression, or the placebo effect reflects mean r... |
47474c1f-351c-4d41-8cd0-c3b5389b1620 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | internal in nonstandard analysis
Internal set theory is a theory introduced by Edward Nelson, notably an ultrafinitist. it introduces a new function std: * -> Bool. You have to just know if something is standard or not. This may sound bad, but is actually a brilliant way of venting complexity. Figuring out if somethin... |
85225add-e03f-4814-8eec-292a686be7e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Blood Feud 2.0
I've been thinking about the idea of culpability.
What is it for, exactly? Why did societies that use the concept win out over those who stuck with the default response of not assigning any particular emotional significance to a given intangible abstraction?
If I'm understanding correctly, a given per... |
2f327a8e-b8ee-4672-80de-d890784bb37f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Our mid-2014 strategic plan
#### Summary
Events since MIRI’s [April 2013 strategic plan](http://intelligence.org/2013/04/13/miris-strategy-for-2013/) have increased my confidence that we are “headed in the right direction.” During the rest of 2014 we will continue to:
* Decrease our public outreach efforts, leavin... |
50756936-2b79-40fe-a3c6-acd314ee16a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes 2
"I often have to arrange talks years in advance. If I am asked for a title, I suggest “The Current Crisis in the Middle East.” It has yet to fail."
-- Noam Chomsky
"We don't do science for the general public. We do it for each other. Good day."
-- Renato Dalbecco, complete text of... |
0efa8ed5-c711-447b-abff-3fbb75b4e0a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Instant stone (just add water!)
Originally posted on The Roots of Progress, January 6, 2018
From the time that humans began to leave their nomadic ways and live in settled societies about ten thousand years ago, we have needed to build structures: to shelter ourselves, to store our goods, to honor the gods.
The easi... |
2ca77c33-3d0c-42a2-b3e0-2f4524645eae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Playing the Meta-game
In honor of today's Schelling-pointmas, a true Schelling-inspired story from a class I was in at a law school I did not attend:
As always, the class was dead silent as we walked to the front of the room. The professor only described the game after the participants had volunteered and been chose... |
ad971652-a5b3-475f-a3f4-3e2c9c5b0ffe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality Bookshelves
A while back in the Columbus Rationality group, we started wondering: What books would the Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality houses have in each of their libraries? We had fun categorizing different subjects:
* Gryffindor - Combat, ethics, and justic... |
9e79a248-bebd-435c-bc7a-d6bfcae3b444 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sudden Future Singularity (SFS) as soon as 8.7 million years in the future?
No, not the kind of Singularity usually discussed here... I'm referring to the possibility of phantom energy-driven rips in the cosmos caused by accelerating expansion, or "sudden future singularities of pressure". (Technically: "a momentary i... |
1f5c7a2a-112d-4ad2-ae86-67aa1fac0425 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Evidence with Uncertain Likelihoods
1 Introduction
---------------
Consider an agent trying to choose among a number of hypotheses: Is it
the case that all ravens are black or not?
Is a particular coin fair or double-headed?
The standard picture in such situations is that the agent makes a
number of observations, w... |
b8c9276a-04da-40a8-aa43-b5aafbc44730 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Job Ad] MATS is hiring!
If you are interested in supporting the development of research projects and researchers in AI safety, the MATS team is currently hiring for Community Manager, Research Manager, and Operations Generalist roles and would love to hear from you. Please apply by Nov 3 to join our team for the Wint... |
2f62759b-c6a6-4d1a-ad7f-45bf6e2abfec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DIY LessWrong Jewelry
[There are no affiliate links in this post and I haven't been paid by anyone; I just happened to have bought the charms from Shein. You can probably get similar things on Temu, Aliexpress or Amazon]
I made a cute LessWrong themed necklace/earring set for cheap, here's how.
For the necklace, bu... |
6d03cb65-da5c-41a9-be01-b956823edacc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Niche product design
I came to realize that the most inspiring, authentic design on the internet today comes from niche places.
As a designer, I’ve been following the herd for quite some time, as I used to observe the big-corps as role models. Whether I had to design a simple UI element, a marketing website, or searc... |
d8980e93-5c80-476d-8c8a-dbe7d59c0f84 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on hacking aromanticism?
Several years ago, Alicorn wrote an article about how she hacked herself to be polyamorous. I'm interested in methods for hacking myself to be aromantic. I've had some success with this, so I'll share what's worked for me, but I'm really hoping you all will chime in with your ideas ... |
2ed6b30a-1685-48f5-9892-f4b78aa3f3ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Neural Categories
Today's post, Neural Categories was originally published on 10 February 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> You treat intuitively perceived hierarchical categories like the only correct way to parse the world, without realizing that other forms of statistical inference are pos... |
cec7993f-ce5b-41cb-a73a-41c18c90eb7d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A stylized dialogue on John Wentworth's claims about markets and optimization
(*This is a stylized version of a real conversation, where the first part happened as part of a public debate between John Wentworth and Eliezer Yudkowsky, and the second part happened between John and me over the following morning. The belo... |
2b420b42-f4d3-41f8-956d-90512874d39e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Help us seed AI Safety Brussels
crossposted on the EA forum: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EwdgPJfeieCxe4cxa/help-us-seed-ai-safety-brussels
TLDR:
Brussels is a hotspot for AI policy and hosts several think tanks doing good work on AI safety. However, there is no established AI Safety group with paid sta... |
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