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45bd3172-2c1b-4594-8537-ac1fbbdc52a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | FHI Essay Competition
This competition is only open to philosophy students.
> Can philosophical research contribute to securing a long and prosperous future for humanity and its descendants?
>
> What would you think about if you really wanted to make a difference?
>
> Crucial considerations are questions or ideas t... |
4f9ecdf6-71cc-4f21-9f55-1feae6745289 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Field-Building and Deep Models
*What is important in hiring/field-building in x-risk and AI alignment communities and orgs? I had a few conversations on this recently, and I'm trying to publicly write up key ideas more regularly.*
*I had in mind the mantra 'better written quickly than not written at all', so you can... |
68808a21-3324-4ade-8d58-9f50d8b84b5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Black Death at the Golden Gate (book review)
Book review: Black Death at the Golden Gate: The Race to Save America from the Bubonic Plague, by David K. Randall.
Imagine a story about an epidemic that reached San Francisco, after devastating parts of China. A few cases are detected, there's uncertainty about how long ... |
a361d7f0-be99-4c47-a40a-2488d837e105 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Against using stock prices to forecast AI timelines
*by* [*Trevor Chow*](https://tmychow.com/)*,*[*Basil Halperin*](https://basilhalperin.com/)*, and*[*J. Zachary Mazlish*](https://jzmazlish.substack.com/)
[Note: This is an appendix to ["AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 3... |
12fc7016-1981-44d6-8d74-01835925ce09 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Floating Cube - Rejected HLE submission
This question I submitted got rejected from the Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) benchmark set for being too easy. I'm really proud of it though, so I figured I'd post it here.
> A wooden cube of unit side length and relative density 0.75 floats stably in a pool of water. What is t... |
883c416e-a5fa-4352-90d4-df2807d4a13e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Project Intro: Selection Theorems for Modularity
Introduction - what is modularity, and why should we care?
It’s a well-established meme that evolution is a blind idiotic process, that has often resulted in design choices that no sane systems designer would endorse. However, if you are studying simulated evolution, on... |
66ecf0cc-f3a1-4a54-b378-e2fa891f8fc7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Oct. 13 - Oct. 19, 2014
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page ... |
0fa923d2-c699-40b2-aefd-6dc96c372f91 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Problem (TM) - Part 2
From part 1: http://bearlamp.com.au/the-problem-tm-analyse-a-conversation/
part 1 on lesswrong: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/nsn/
(this) part: http://bearlamp.com.au/the-problem-analyse-a-conversation-part-2/
> I had a chat with a person who admitted to having many problems themselv... |
0b09ca0b-55aa-43c2-ac2b-006a296823e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Vancouver Politics Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Vancouver Politics Meetup
WHEN: 12 May 2012 01:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: Benny's Bagels 2505 W Broadway Vancouver, BC
We are going to be at Benny's again. Saturday this time, because we know some of you can't do Sundays. 13:00.
The sequence we are... |
460785f5-eb06-4268-b85a-956ee7b13594 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Are Women Hot?
Cross-posted, as always, from Putanumonit.
----------------------------------------
Why are women hot?
They just are is not an unreasonable answer, but it’s not like women are hot entirely by coincidence. Women put a lot of effort into their appearance. They care a great deal about their looks, a... |
cce64d10-5557-4532-be34-c66fe81d6993 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When do you visualize (or not) while doing math?
I've been doing a lot more math lately, and, of course, also thinking about how I can do it faster and with deeper understanding. When I was in college, I remember that I found visualizing immensely helpful, to the point where it's almost what "doing math" is for me.
T... |
f335fc1b-5f3c-4242-9272-f2661e270d93 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | List of Q&A Assumptions and Uncertainties [LW2.0 internal document]
Context
1. This is the second in a series of internal LessWrong 2.0 team document we are sharing publicly (with minimal editing) in an effort to help keep the community up to date with what we're thinking about and working on.
I suggest you first rea... |
988dd27b-a2ca-44cd-a6fa-ab92d6bab06c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Tel Aviv Meetup: Choosing research topics
Discussion article for the meetup : Tel Aviv Meetup: Choosing research topics
WHEN: 26 June 2014 07:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Menachem Begin Road 7, 15th floor, Ramat Gan, Israel
(This is a duplicate generated by a bug. Now trying to resolve the bug. See meeting notic... |
ae4b31eb-b8da-4477-b44e-450208c09ce6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2 (naive?) ideas for alignment
Context
I'm interested in working on alignment, coming from a programmer/Haskell background. I have two ideas that are unlikely to info hazards, that I want to post here in order to get feedback/info about prior work.
Both are very rough/early stage, view this as me presenting a pre-MVP... |
f682411a-8401-490c-be75-d2ba26c2e437 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Wants to get straight to Bayes
A simple requisite page to mark whether the user has selected wanting to get straight into Bayes on the [Bayes' Rule Guide start page](https://arbital.com/p/1zq). |
98085eab-ecf5-40b9-8ba8-f1fa86fde353 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | self-improvement-executors are not goal-maximizers
Agents are [adaptation-executors](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/adaptation-executors) with adaptations that accomplish goals, not goal-maximizers. Understanding agents as maximizing goals is a simplification used by humans to make them easier to understand. This is as... |
e6ee8d4c-e731-4207-aa73-8531f5089c23 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Draft: A concise theory of agentic consciousness
Consciousness can be understood as an interpersonally-oriented perception of situations, where the mind of a social speciman instinctively focuses on agents or personas within any given context. Even inanimate or non-conscious aspects of reality are often personified – ... |
9f08e9cc-badb-455d-a122-68c8bc6b2899 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Did Elon Musk Just Offer to Buy Control of OpenAI for $100 Billion?
This is the full text of a post from "The Obsolete Newsletter," a Substack that I write about the intersection of capitalism, geopolitics, and artificial intelligence. I’m a freelance journalist and the author of a forthcoming book called Obsolete... |
4c7e7e42-bdf8-41f7-ad4e-eb8b8c5487f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Mutant Game - Rounds 11 to 30
This game continues from the alternate timeline here where I made two mistakes in the game engine.
* Bots were passed their own previous move and told it was their opponent's previous move.
* Bots were always given 0 as the round index instead of the correct positive integer.
Clo... |
b81c7084-8774-4dec-b13d-b24a29fd8f21 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LINK: AI Researcher Yann LeCun on AI function
Yann LeCun, now of Facebook, was interviewed by The Register. It is interesting that his view of AI is apparently that of a prediction tool:
"In some ways you could say intelligence is all about prediction," he explained. "What you can identify in intelligence is it can p... |
1a78fb01-e840-46a8-b9b1-ebfd4837dd93 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | GPT is dangerous because it is useful at all
GPT is dangerous because it is useful at all
--------------------------------------------
an action — such as building, running, giving access, or publishing an AI system — is dangerous to the extent that it moves the world in a direction that makes it be in more danger. ... |
dcc17398-c8b8-448c-86c1-d5e189e85b30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Confabulation Bias
(Edit: Gwern points out in the comments that there is previous discussion on this study at New study on choice blindness in moral positions.)
Earlier this month, a group of Swedish scientists published a study that describes a new type of bias that I haven't seen listed in any of the sequences or o... |
e2967b70-3493-4baf-873f-7fb74698a439 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Never Go Full Kelly
Introduction
I am assuming the reader is at least somewhat familiar with the Kelly Criterion. If not, I suggest you read this first. There is a sense in which I am mostly just adding meat to the bones of "Never Go Full Kelly". (Or more narrowly his two last two points):
* You can't handle the sw... |
b7fea558-43a0-4b0a-9a45-e805b2453f92 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Alternative Approach to AI Cooperation
[This post summarizes my side of a conversation between me and cousin_it, and continues it.]
Several people here have shown interest in an approach to modeling AI interactions that was suggested by Eliezer Yudkowsky: assume that AIs can gain common knowledge of each other's s... |
67b63d78-e633-46b4-b4ef-28f85e43a122 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Demonstrate and evaluate risks from AI to society at the AI x Democracy research hackathon
TLDR; Participate online or in-person on the weekend 3rd to 5th May in an exciting and fun AI safety research hackathon focused on demonstrating and extrapolating risks to democracy from real-life threat models. We invite resear... |
9474f839-45a0-445b-b901-a0135cef6ea6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shah and Yudkowsky on alignment failures
This is the final discussion log in the Late 2021 MIRI Conversations sequence, featuring Rohin Shah and Eliezer Yudkowsky, with additional comments from Rob Bensinger, Nate Soares, Richard Ngo, and Jaan Tallinn.
The discussion begins with summaries and comments on Richard and ... |
bf278490-4a1d-4153-8294-b3fdcfd5a76e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayes Questions
For the first time ever I’ve had reason to use formal Bayesian statistics in my work. I feel this is a cause for streamers and confetti.
However, I’ve got a bit stuck on analysing my confidence levels and I thought what better place than lesswrong to check that I’m making sense. I’m not sure this is s... |
a9fead22-e72c-4d7c-b68f-274f43d2abad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Epistemic Comparison: First Principles Land vs. Mimesis Land
Epistemic Status: wildly speculative
I've been thinking about the ideas of mimesis and cultural learning by René Girard (known in part for being recommended by Peter Thiel, explanation here) and Joseph Henrich (Secrets of our Success). These seem like both ... |
92ea4ece-cbfa-4595-9605-0913c5375f9d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How confident are we that there are no Extremely Obvious Aliens?
Robin Hanson's writing on Grabby Aliens is interesting to me, since it seems to be one of the more sound attempts to apply mathematical reasoning to the Fermi Paradox. Unfortunately, it still relies on anthropics, so I wouldn't the slightest bit surpris... |
8c731dff-4898-42d0-8534-b854b70f1b45 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ASI existential risk: Reconsidering Alignment as a Goal
A post by Michael Nielsen that I found quite interesting. I decided to reproduce the full essay content here, since I think Michael is fine with that, but he should feel free to let me know to only excerpt it.
----------------------------------------
This is t... |
34a9218f-5ede-422e-b2a2-35fb95326d4f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Singularity2014.com appears to be a fake
Earlier today I was alerted to the existence of Singularity2014.com ([archived screenshot](http://intelligence.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Singularity-2014-with-note.png)). MIRI has nothing to do with that website and we believe it is a fake.
The website claims there is a ... |
27af7be4-5117-49a5-9b29-c0cb010879f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] "The Limits of Intelligence"
Article in current Scientific American (first para and bullet points, rest is paywalled).
Podcast by the author (free).
The author, Douglas Fox, argues that there may be physical limits to how intelligent a brain made of neurons can become, limits that may not be very distant from... |
16ff086f-f4ec-4796-975e-cbfb5feb0b56 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post345
ARC has released a paper on Backdoor defense, learnability and obfuscation in which we study a formal notion of backdoors in ML models. Part of our motivation for this is an analogy between backdoors and deceptive alignment , the possibility that an AI system would intentionally behave well in training in ... |
d992de2c-6eea-4aa4-972a-a961f299d5c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Code Switch
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/code-switching/
Related to: Hedging
Code switching is this useful linguistics concept that is not overtly known enough.
The type that I care about is a cross between "group identity" and "lexical need":
> Group identity: People may alter their language to express ... |
fb5fdcd5-c41c-4165-a710-b0d0eac6246d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: History of Science Fiction Fandom
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: History of Science Fiction Fandom
WHEN: 19 June 2016 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture
We will be meeting in the courtyard for a presentation about the history ... |
c36a848f-b7bc-4348-aa93-53b518956e6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Whence the determinant?
The determinant is a rather bizarre concept when one first encounters it. Given a square n×n matrix A, it's defined as
detA=∑σ∈Sn(−1)σn∏i=1Aiσ(i)
where Sn is the symmetric group on n elements - the collection of all permutations of a set of n distinct objects - and (−1)σ is the sign of the pe... |
6489ab90-ec45-4f38-84bf-15387ed7a705 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Promising posts on AF that have fallen through the cracks
Yesterday on the Weekly Alignment Research Coffee Time call as people were sharing updates on their recent work, Vanessa Kosoy brought up her and Diffractor's post Infra-Bayesian physicalism: a formal theory of naturalized induction which she was interested in ... |
545ba2b5-9d64-48fc-855a-f02e0bfcf856 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book review: Air-borne by Carl Zimmer
Remember early 2020 and reading news articles and respected sources (the WHO, the CDC, the US surgeon general...) confidently asserting that covid wasn’t airborne and that wearing masks wouldn’t stop you from catching it?
Man, it’s embarrassing to be part of a field of study (bio... |
0122fd73-76d6-4ddf-9f11-21c30187fe0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why is the mail so much better than the DMV?
One of the reasons why Europe has a much more all-encompassing welfare state than the USA is that in the US government services are poorly run. Whether it's providing healthcare , building high speed rail , or Issuing Drivers Licenses, the typical American's experience with... |
a91e325b-2d81-4e38-9ca3-b1e8db7eadc1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid-19 IFR from a Bayesian point of view
This is mostly cross-posted from here , but edited slightly for the crowd here. Given that this is grand Bayesian Central, I'm surprised to see the lack of good Bayesian analysis as applied to covid-19. This seems to be a major failure of science, lesswrong should pick up the... |
85d67e99-26c3-4704-b8f9-388bf398f91a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Minimax-regret querying on side effects for safe optimality in factored Markov decision processes
Minimax-Regret Querying on Side Effects for Safe Optimality in Factored
Markov Decision Processes
Shun Zhang, Edmund H. Durfee, and Satinder Singh
Computer Science and Engineering
University of Michigan
fshunzh,durfee,bav... |
790f3b1c-c4c7-449d-a3e2-8081ce0f04c4 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post179
Buck Shlegeris and I recently published a paper with UK AISI that sketches a safety case for “AI control” – safety measures that improve safety despite intentional subversion from AI systems. I would summarize this work as “turning crayon drawings of safety cases into blueprints.” It’s a long and technical... |
78c60703-c665-489c-a43a-6dff8b42488b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Distillation of "How Likely is Deceptive Alignment?"
Summary
=======
Deceptive alignment seems to be the likely outcome of training a sufficiently intelligent AI using gradient descent. An ML model with a long term goal and an understanding of its training process would probably pretend to be aligned during training... |
f134351e-6291-44b3-8ba5-4e310c7ca2a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Doing Science! Open Thread Experiment Results
Early in the month I announced that I was doing an experiment: I was going to start two Open Threads in January (one on the 1st, and the other on the 15th) and compare the number of comments on these threads to those of other months. My hypothesis was that having two Open ... |
b565b2bb-0466-41a7-97f7-6a9075467b9f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Orthogonal's Formal-Goal Alignment theory of change
We recently announced [Orthogonal, an agent foundations alignment research organization. In this post, I give a thorough explanation of the formal-goal alignment framework, the motivation behind it, and the theory of change it fits in.
The overall shape of what we'r... |
f2ce5ad4-22dc-4297-a3e1-27868320bb3e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is AlphaZero any good without the tree search?
One component of AlphaZero is a neural net which takes a board position as input, and outputs a guess about how good the position is and what a good next move would be. It combines this neural net with Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) that plays out different ways the game ... |
c55534e6-e082-48cc-b362-ab3628e5bc88 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Searching for Bayes-Structure
> "Gnomish helms should not function. Their very construction seems to defy the nature of thaumaturgical law. In fact, they are impossible. Like most products of gnomish minds, they include a large number of bells and whistles, and very little substance. Those that work usually have a... |
37e5706e-1efe-4478-b0b4-0938b97e4998 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : New Meetup: Boulder CO
Discussion article for the meetup : New Meetup: Boulder CO
WHEN: 03 September 2013 07:03:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: Munzinger building of CU Boulder
Alright, so I've heard that the way these things get started is that someone wants to make a meetup and says I'm going to be sitting at this c... |
d41fdd0d-805f-48a1-a9aa-fb6beb58b888 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Finite Factored Sets: Orthogonality and Time
The main way we'll be using [factored sets](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/kxs3eeEti9ouwWFzr) is as a foundation for talking about concepts like orthogonality and time. Finite factored sets will play a role that's analogous to that of directed acyclic graphs in Pearlian causal... |
4993fae2-b722-4cdc-8342-0d545aebc1bc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Ad-hoc hack (alignment theory)
An "ad-hoc hack" is when you modify or [patch](https://arbital.com/p/48) the algorithm of the AI with regards to something that would ordinarily have simple, principled, or nailed-down structure, or where it seems like that part ought to have some simple answer instead. E.g., instead of... |
1526bca2-29a5-4e2e-beb0-86fb04e289ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationalist horror movies
I like horror movies with smart, agentic protagonists, while staying in horror genre rather than thriller or action. These are rather thin on the ground. In the spirit of Scott Garabant's Puzzle Game post, here is my list of favorites and an invitation to add yours.
My favorites:
* Oculus... |
3c48dc56-f7de-4410-b391-a68e2ed5b99a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Corrigibility thoughts III: manipulating versus deceiving
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
This is the first of three articles about limitations and challenges in the concept of corrigibility (see articles 1 and 2).
The desiderata for corrigibility are:
1. A corrigible agent tolerates, and preferabl... |
15664a81-9039-4b98-8c47-f063e1aa1475 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Three Major Singularity Schools
( [Originally appeared](https://intelligence.org/2007/09/30/three-major-singularity-schools/) on the Machine Intelligence Research Institute blog, September 2007.)
Singularity discussions seem to be splitting up into three major schools of thought: Accelerating Change, the Event Horiz... |
c86a0c2d-e0e5-4560-8ca8-525d4bd7c702 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Shutting Down the Lightcone Offices
[Lightcone](https://www.lightconeinfrastructure.com/) recently decided to close down a big project we'd been running for the last 1.5 years: An office space in Berkeley for people working on x-risk/EA/rationalist things that we opened August 2021.
We haven't written much about why,... |
eec8b051-2322-4dc5-af03-b47566001490 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Multiverse-wide Cooperation via Correlated Decision Making
Multiverse-wide Cooperation via Correlated Decision
Making
Caspar Oesterheld
Abstract
Some decision theorists argue that when playing a prisoner’s dilemma-type game
against a sufficiently similar opponent, we should cooperate to make it more likely that
our op... |
56755f6a-540b-429a-bf71-992e2c66149a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The Stack Overflow of Factored Cognition
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; flo... |
adfa167b-3225-42a0-ac1d-77adb772a46e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Decoherence is Simple
Today's post, Decoherence is Simple was originally published on 06 May 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> The idea that decoherence fails the test of Occam's Razor is wrong as probability theory.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
... |
4bf6c254-dd9a-41ff-b633-60ffe890dc5c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The recent NeurIPS call for papers requires authors to include a statement about the potential broader impact of their work
NeurIPS (formerly NIPS) is a top conference in machine learning and computational neuroscience. The recently published call for papers for NeurIPS 2020 includes the following (which did not appea... |
12159121-6e9b-41b4-b976-7f5c002c71e6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Towards an Intentional Research Agenda
*This post is motivated by research intuitions that better [formalisms in consciousness research](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/research/) contribute to agent foundations in more ways than just the value loading problem. Epistemic status: speculative.*
[David Marr's levels... |
b5ac87fa-f293-404d-8bcf-c881430dfc46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Summer Solstice
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Summer Solstice
WHEN: 21 December 2014 06:00:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: Model Yacht Pond, Centennial Park
Help us celebrate the end of a full year of rekindled Less Wrong Sydney! We will be holding a Summer Solstice event, Sat 21st in Centennial Pa... |
7b6baa5a-76d2-4774-8914-40801e2eaa26 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Georgism in Space
Georgism is cool and all, but it was invented in 1879, and I prefer my ideologies to be more futuristic. Unlike the Network State, Georgism doesn’t require blockchains, and unlike Scientology, it lacks aliens.
So lets make it more exciting by taking Georgism into space.
Its not a terrible idea, spa... |
0c1d79f7-f26e-4b82-b7d9-04465d0fd2dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Effective Altruism Melbourne [Edit With Your Details]
(The following are our suggestions for what kind of information is best to include in the welcome post of your group, feel free to replace them with whatever you think is best)
What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do?
H... |
9502cf06-f3d1-45fa-b870-102601ac9965 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - April 2017
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - April 2017
WHEN: 02 April 2017 04:00:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: 10 Shepherd Street, Chippendale
Join us from 4 - 6 to sharpen your planning, motivation and other rationality skills. Afterwards there'll be a social d... |
91b682a9-a0e4-4226-8a32-09baf72ae432 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability: Introduction
EDIT 19/7/24: This sequence is now two years old, and fairly out of date. I hope it's still useful for historical reasons, but I no longer recommend it as a reliable source of problems worth working on, eg it doesn't at all discuss Sparse Autoenc... |
47934db1-2031-4128-8aca-2132dd380cf2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | How effectively can we plan for future decades? (initial findings)
MIRI aims to do research now that increases humanity’s odds of successfully managing important AI-related events that are at least [a few decades away](http://intelligence.org/2013/05/15/when-will-ai-be-created/). Thus, we’d like to know: To what degre... |
50d3f4a9-40e4-49c9-96f5-9f6eb17488c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Knowledge value = knowledge quality × domain importance
Months ago, my roommate and I were discussing someone who had tried to replicate Seth Roberts' butter mind self-experiment. My roommate seemed to be making almost no inference from the person's self-reports, because they weren't part of a scientific study.
But k... |
e9dcb2a3-5db2-4576-9a38-1be9245110b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Adapting to Change: Overcoming Chronostasis in AI Language Models
Language is a living, ever-evolving phenomenon that mirrors the continuous shifts in culture, society, and human thinking. In the dynamic realm of artificial intelligence, large language models such as GPT-4 have showcased remarkable capabilities in und... |
944239c5-86a4-45b1-9ddc-b61e7b5b7266 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Construction of practical quantum computers radically simplified
|
863d8a22-d57e-4f02-a308-3615657a6c47 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | We don't understand what happened with culture enough
This is a quick response to[Evolution Provides No Evidence For the Sharp Left Turn](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hvz9qjWyv8cLX9JJR/evolution-provides-no-evidence-for-the-sharp-left-turn), due to it winning first prize in[The Open Philanthropy Worldviews contest]... |
8acecc8d-a802-480d-afa6-3f1333883713 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why do governments refer to existential risks primarily in terms of national security?
I learned from the public policy section from the Wikipedia article about the AI control problem that earlier this year the UK government published its ten-year National AI Strategy. For specifically the control problem and x-risks ... |
ba462a09-ac36-44de-877a-17e1d5ba8d80 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Pessimism about AI Safety
**TL;DR**
---------
* The alignment problem is less fundamental for AI safety than the problem of predicting actions of AI systems, especially if they are more intelligent than oneself. We dub this the prediction problem.
* The prediction problem may be insoluble.
* If the prediction problem... |
1e624045-e94b-4b3d-8dd4-1b084dccf292 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I tried my hardest to win in an AI box experiment, and I failed. Here are the logs.
Disclaimer: If this material is not suitable here I will delete it gladly, I don't want to get banned.
Session Start: Fri Jul 04 15:18:18 2014
Session Ident: #Aibox12
03[15:18] * Now talking in #Aibox12
01[15:18] <Island> Hello.
01[1... |
2f680955-69df-401e-a084-836ca20ca759 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Killswitch
Epistemic status: fiction. Speculative fiction. But that said, perhaps very near-term speculative fiction, and perhaps somewhere on the way to the borderline between "fiction" and "design document."
An AI killswitch bears almost no resemblance to most of its physical analogs. It has less in common with fus... |
01f5a2a6-9874-42b8-83dd-718845dc9847 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | How Do AI Timelines Affect Existential Risk?
*This report is my* [*MLSS*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CphfDP4ynz3QQ4AKY/introducing-the-ml-safety-scholars-program) *final project.*
*PDF version* [*here*](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2209.05459.pdf)*.*
Summary
=======
Superhuman artificial general intelligence could be... |
311d8aaa-f5fc-42e8-b876-ddb2d6c70fe3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How a chip is designed
Disclaimer: This is highly incomplete. I am not an expert in the field. There might be some unfamiliar terms. While I will try to explain things, explaining every single term would be beyond this post. You will usually be able to get a sufficient understanding by clicking the links or googling i... |
9ee1785d-b540-47e1-a48a-34b769d5fc6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2013 Census/Survey: call for changes and additions
I have finally gotten the survey to a point where I'm pretty happy with it. I have no big changes I want to make this year. But as is the tradition, please take a week to discuss what minor changes you want to the survey (within the limits of what Google Docs and fini... |
1c120747-4442-452b-8cc9-c7c78b42f055 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Take 8: Queer the inner/outer alignment dichotomy.
*As a writing exercise, I'm writing an AI Alignment Hot Take Advent Calendar - one new hot take, written every day for 25 days. Or until I run out of hot takes.*
I'm not saying to never say "inner alignment." But you had better be capable of not using that framing if... |
56e20782-beda-417e-80df-711dbf30f843 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why do we need an understanding of the real world to predict the next tokens in a body of text?
I want to start by saying that this is my first question on LessWrong, so I apologise if I am breaking some norms or not asking it properly.
The whole question is pretty much contained in the title. I see a lot of people, ... |
cff30cfb-2a23-4258-99cc-161803507c7d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hardware is already ready for the singularity. Algorithm knowledge is the only barrier.
How close are we to a singularity? Well, computers started being able to think faster than us in the 1990s, (neurons have a processing speed of 200 Hz), and are now many orders of magnitude faster.
"But wait!" you reasonably obje... |
89d5d9e6-6ad9-4410-8e4b-107a468d8492 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Strategic Goal Pursuit and Daily Schedules
In the post Humans Are Not Automatically Strategic, Anna Salamon writes:
> there are clearly also heuristics that would be useful to goal-achievement (or that would be part of what it means to “have goals” at all) that we do not automatically carry out. We do not automatical... |
277b382c-1912-46ec-8339-a4bf4cfae9f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I do not like math
I do not like math very much.
I do not find math completely boring. If I were stuck in a prison cell I'd happily do math until I expired from a ruptured spline. Insofar as I have escaped prison, I have attempted to escape math too.
Avoiding math was particularly difficult while I earned my bachelo... |
908f9107-5712-4f3b-87fc-2553110aff50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups: Austin, Ohio
This summary was posted to LW Main on September 7th. The most recent summary can be found here.
There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in:
* Brussels meetup: 15 September 2012 12:00PM
* Less Wrong Sydney: 17th September: MInd Games: 17 September 2012 06:30PM
Th... |
49848674-5b56-4eb6-92a9-74b6aa455fe0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What is causality to an evidential decision theorist?
(*Subsumed by: [Timeless Decision Theory](https://intelligence.org/files/TDT.pdf), [EDT=CDT](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/fgHSwxFitysGKHH56))*
People sometimes object to evidential decision theory by saying: “It seems like the distinction between correlation and c... |
d373afdf-4f8a-44e4-bbd9-374cd24061c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Milk, bread, insert catheter…
Making lists to guide medical procedures saves lives but is unethical, say Americans.
What if a way was found to rescue hundreds of thousands of the sickest people in the world’s hospitals, at the cost of a sheet of paper each? Michigan would take up the idea, Spain and a couple of US s... |
8b01d53d-89fb-4fa1-a406-875f8bb7a23c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Criteria for Rational Political Conversation
Query: by what objective criteria do we determine whether a political decision is rational?
I propose that the key elements -- necessary but not sufficient -- are (where "you" refers collectively to everyone involved in the decisionmaking process):
* you must use only do... |
ebb61997-0e4a-48f0-96fd-5023a0105129 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sledding Among Hazards
Some sledding hills are very open, with basically no hazards. As long as you start in a reasonable place there's nothing to run into.
Robbins Farm Park, Arlington MA
Other hills are not like this:
Powder House Park, Somerville MA
Since sleds go fast and collisions are bad, choosing o... |
d1e74017-cde6-4827-8ebe-56ede53ee4d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How I Run Solstice, Step by Step
This is a writeup of how I run Secular Solstices, in as much detail as I can muster. I think most of the existing guides to running Solstices are now somewhat outdated, and not as step-by-step "this is what you need to do when"; I hope this one is a helpful addition.
This post assume... |
00b3eba8-5619-4050-9da5-99cd814fd9b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Self-Correction vs. Self-Reflection: Is There a Fundamental Difference?
Introduction: The Rational Question
In AI research, the difference between self-correction and self-reflection is often assumed to be clear:
* Self-correction is when an AI revises outputs based on external feedback.
* Self-reflection would ... |
6bbcfcc0-b614-4f13-b077-e9ece6ac2c78 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shutting down AI is not enough. We need to destroy all technology.
A TIME article published recently calls for an “indefinite and worldwide” moratorium on new large AI training runs.
This moratorium would be better than no moratorium. I have respect for the author who wrote it. It’s an improvement on the margin.
I r... |
6b09d5f7-0806-41e9-884b-7c8c499deca6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Beat Procrastination (to some degree) (if you're identical to me)
So, you procrastinate. A lot. And it's a really big problem in your life, and so you really want to, y'know, stop procrastinating. But for some reason, it's just not that easy.
So, why do you procrastinate?
It's probably a really hard question ... |
3be15795-5cc9-40f8-9403-cd96e5552b35 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sequence exercises/ reruns coordination?
I'm not involved in either effort, but it would upvote any coordination between the two. |
afbd576a-07ba-4802-b79d-8c5d3bf85dff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The effects of religion (draft)
I've written this essay about the effects of religion. I plan to post it in the main section. However, in my year or so of lurking here I've noticed that most of the first main posts people create are either irrelevant or bad, and end up down voting the poster to oblivion. To this ai... |
5cb1bb26-dfe9-4025-bf74-70e693de33eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Did EcoHealth create SARS-CoV-2?
Science writer Nicholas Wade does a detailed write up here: https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/
I'd like to hear the LessWrong evaluation of these claims. |
bfd292e9-6b8e-43c1-bdbf-875fd6577ea3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Three misconceptions in Edge.org’s conversation on “The Myth of AI”
A recent Edge.org conversation — “[The Myth of AI](http://edge.org/conversation/the-myth-of-ai)” — is framed in part as a discussion of points raised in Bostrom’s *[Superintelligence](http://smile.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-B... |
24455f7a-d638-493b-aeb1-5500dd671f68 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Requesting advice] Problems with optimizing my life as a high school student
[deleted for containing personally identifiable information] |
cad7a693-f7a0-42ff-be65-167c28289503 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 'Complex Value Systems are Required to Realize Valuable Futures' (Yudkowsky, 2011)
Most of the papers from the AGI-11 conference are now available online, including Yudkowsky's new paper: 'Complex Value Systems are Required to Realize Valuable Futures.'
Enjoy. |
927aae92-9b23-42dd-9da8-c9a2531cc882 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | The characteristic of the logarithm
Consider the interpretation of logarithms as [the cost of communicating a message](https://arbital.com/p/45q). Every time the number of possible messages to send doubles, your communication costs increase by the price of a coin, or whatever cheaper [https://arbital.com/p/-storage_me... |
bcfb2919-8b5a-42ee-852e-5c4bdd3ea11d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC Social Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC Social Meetup
WHEN: 12 August 2012 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Washington DC, USA
This meetup is the first of a new schedule of meetup, which will alternate "serious", discussion oriented meetups, with "social", more activity based... |
5489ac98-1e12-4e0f-8d80-084a7de69c55 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Survey on cortical uniformity - an expert amplification exercise
In short: We designed a survey to gauge the opinion of expert neuroscientists about the degree of uniformity in the human cortex. The survey was sent to 135 experts, of which only 6 responded. Since we do not consider this a representative sample, we are... |
a5091f7e-c34a-4536-aac2-74a71c835c75 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Reminder: AI Worldviews Contest Closes May 31
**Update**: *The winners have been selected and notified and will be publicly announced no later than the end of September.*
This is a reminder that the deadline to enter the [Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/open-philanthropy-ai-w... |
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