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7a90cebc-54c5-43f3-80ca-598d016abc6a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | When discussing AI risks, talk about capabilities, not intelligence
[Public discussions](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=144uOfr4SYA) about catastrophic risks from general AI systems are often derailed by using the word “intelligence”. People often have different definitions of intelligence, or associate it with conce... |
5043ba45-2f7b-42bc-9a07-b37dd9e18882 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI alignment: Would a lazy self-preservation instinct be sufficient?
Let's assume that an AI is intelligent enough to understand that it's an AI, and that it's running on infrastructure created and maintained by humans, using electricity generated by humans, etc. And let's assume that it cares about its own self-prese... |
18b2fd24-5a94-4997-a655-26fd6dfec3c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Robert McIntyre’s Brain Preservation Talk at the Long Now Foundation
Update: I later ended up interviewing Robert.
This is cross-posted from my blog and is written more for a general audience rather than LessWrong people who will be more familiar with some of the relevant concepts.
These are my notes on Ro... |
ef71d296-7705-483c-9541-da1f2497de09 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Catastrophe Mitigation Using DRL (Appendices)
% operators that are separated from the operand by a space
% autosize deliminaters
% operators that require brackets
% operators that require parentheses
% Paper specific
These are Appendices B and C for the essay Catastrophe Mitigation Usi... |
c011b2fa-7be3-482b-b6cd-dc1359711f83 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | This week in fashion
TL;DR: A holiday obsession turns into a deep meditation on all things pretty. Albatrosses and reward *models* included. Also, check out www.fashionator.xyz (no malware, I promise).
Over the Christmas holiday, I became slightly obsessed with the Netflix show "Next in Fashion." It's (probably) only ... |
084b28f9-cf66-48c5-a7ff-a288eefc12e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Biodiversity for heretics
Epistemic status: Not very confident in my conclusions here. Could be missing big things. Information gained through many hours of reading about somewhat-related topics, and a small few hours of direct research.
Summary: Biodiversity research is popular, but interpretations of it are probabl... |
a0b06ec4-796f-4691-85b2-9da8d9d3cc7f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Do yourself a FAVAR: security mindset
(We're always in search of a concise and actionable way to communicate security mindset. Here's my attempt.)
Just as a sprocket you don't use never fails and code you don't write has no bugs, an input constraint you don't require is never violated.
Want a secure system? Then DO ... |
18ddabc1-2f99-42e5-ae2f-66eb775cce15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Leading The Parade
Background
Terminology: Counterfactual Impact vs “Leading The Parade”
Y’know how a parade or marching band has a person who walks in front waving a fancy-looking stick up and down? Like this guy:
The classic 80’s comedy Animal House features a great scene in which a prankster steals the stick, ... |
673f4fb1-a248-433a-90b1-ac61ae7fbea7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, April 1-15, 2012
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here. |
5dcab374-5448-4f99-b2c9-6fb71b6fcd18 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Eliciting Credit Hacking Behaviours in LLMs
I've run some experiments on trying to elicit RL credit hacking behaviours in LLMs recently. I'm not really much of a researcher, so it's all pretty amateurish, but it's been a fun experiment. The repo for reproduction is [on GitHub](https://github.com/Omegastick/credit-hack... |
b35c9c4d-520a-43f4-9f79-b2199cfc935b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | About Me
I want to write about (and work on) lofty topics in fields like artificial intelligence, machine learning, synthetic biology, math, and philosophy, however; I'm keenly aware that my credentials are... underwhelming: I barely graduated with a bachelors degree in electrical engineering in 2008 and have had a ro... |
02165f11-55a1-4259-b794-6c620ed2328e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Complexity of Value ≠ Complexity of Outcome
Complexity of value is the thesis that our preferences, the things we care about, don't compress down to one simple rule, or a few simple rules. To review why it's important (by quoting from the wiki):
* Caricatures of rationalists often have them moved by artificially sim... |
90416463-17fd-40c4-8592-3568090cb8ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is value drift net-positive, net-negative, or neither?
Crossposted from the EA forum
I've been asked variations of this question a few times recently, as I'm studying value drift for my undergraduate thesis, so I thought I would seek out others' thoughts on this.
I suppose part of this depends on how we define value... |
f17f4bd9-db37-42dc-9295-f938ecfb0985 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Keeping content out of LLM training datasets
This post collects methods to exclude internet resources from LLM training datasets.
I plan to at least try to keep this post up-to-date with respect to new things I learn on the topic. Please feel encouraged to suggest any additions or amendments.
This post is about how ... |
eb91a3b6-8762-4e12-b5d9-9e153e828d52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | John Nash's Ideal Money: The Motivations of Savings and Thrift
|
9db9230c-c4f6-4fb0-84b3-da9db98be454 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Humans can drive cars
There's been a lot of fuss lately about Google's gadgets. Computers can drive cars - pretty amazing, eh? I guess. But what amazed me as a child was that people can drive cars. I'd sit in the back seat while an adult controlled a machine taking us at insane speeds through a cluttered, seemingly qu... |
7a45619f-c525-4d06-866d-71774fcc7e1c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | And You Take Me the Way I Am
Mark Twain wrote that honesty means you don't have to remember anything. But it also means you don't have to worry about making mistakes.
If you said something terrible that made everyone decide that you're stupid and evil, there's no sense in futilely protesting that "that's not what you... |
743bc1c4-146d-45b0-8462-d665c7b9e848 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to get that Friendly Singularity: a minority view
Note: I know this is a rationality site, not a Singularity Studies site. But the Singularity issue is ever in the background here, and the local focus on decision theory fits right into the larger scheme - see below.
There is a worldview which I have put together ... |
3ef211f2-9f74-45af-aa5f-3d1eab604183 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ronny and Nate discuss what sorts of minds humanity is likely to find by Machine Learning
Context: somebody at some point floated the idea that Ronny might (a) understand the argument coming out of the Quintin/Nora camp, and (b) be able to translate them to Nate. Nate invited Ronny to chat. The chat logs follow, light... |
c06f5715-8c38-4eaa-941b-43aa8d07089c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forcing Anthropics: Boltzmann Brains
Followup to: Anthropic Reasoning in UDT by Wei Dai
Suppose that I flip a logical coin - e.g. look at some binary digit of pi unknown to either of us - and depending on the result, either create a billion of you in green rooms and one of you in a red room if the coin came up 1; or... |
cfe3727e-5f02-4784-bbf9-1a15afcc590e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?
Published: June 25, 2021 | by [Tom Davidson](/about/team/tom-davidson)
This report evaluates the likelihood of ‘explosive growth’, meaning > 30% annual growth of gross world product (GWP), occurring by 2100. Although frontier GDP/capita growth has been constant for 1... |
fe4a79c9-d540-4219-a273-5155edb1c8d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should we maximize the Geometric Expectation of Utility?
Consequentialists (including utilitarians) claim that the goodness of an action should be judged based on the goodness of its consequences. The word utility is often used to refer to the quantified goodness of a particular outcome. When the consequences of an a... |
e94be90e-e943-46a2-90a7-28f5d5775b97 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Yampolskiy on AI Risk Skepticism
Roman Yampolskiy posted a preprint for "AI Risk Skepticism". Here's the abstract:
> In this work, we survey skepticism regarding AI risk and show parallels with other types of scientific skepticism. We start by classifying different types of AI Risk skepticism and analyze their root ... |
fd7be8c9-c196-4a50-b14f-7f33f2433fc1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 9/30: People Respond to Incentives
Another week, more mandates, more numbers that look mostly how one would expect, more nonsensical policies. Not much unexpected to report this week.
Executive Summary
About what you’d expect. No key takeaways this week.
Let’s run the numbers.
The Numbers
Predictions
Pred... |
ded871a5-3642-4549-94f2-ff1ad61d317c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Number Choosing Game: Against the existence of perfect theoretical rationality
In order to ensure that this post delivers what it promises, I have added the following content warnings:
Content Notes:
Pure Hypothetical Situation: The claim that perfect theoretical rationality doesn't exist is restricted to a pure... |
9e64dd8b-a471-427f-b361-37e47b84ba69 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Answering questions honestly instead of predicting human answers: lots of problems and some solutions
*This post is the result of work I did with Paul Christiano on the ideas in his “[Teaching ML to answer questions honestly instead of predicting human answers](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/QqwZ7cwEA2cxFEAun/te... |
6dcf7344-dd83-480c-8714-3983542d0372 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Racionalidade SP [Edit With Your Details]
(The following are our suggestions for what kind of information is best to include in the welcome post of your group, feel free to replace them with whatever you think is best)
What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do?
How frequentl... |
dce60980-ff0c-41bd-8534-7835f4017e59 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | Why should someone who is religious worry about AI existential risk?
The problem of AI existential risk is not tied to any specific set of values. Rather, the problem is that we don’t know how to give a superintelligent AI *any* goal which we can trust it to fulfill without causing existential catastrophe. Both religi... |
87693c84-6dc9-4dae-8fe1-718a9942428b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Smallpox vaccines are widely available, for now
In response to the 2022 monkeypox outbreak, public health departments throughout the USA and Europe are offering free smallpox vaccines to the public. (The diseases are closely related and the same vaccine protects against both.) Demand for these vaccines was high when t... |
cbc51fa0-bf1e-4111-8f62-8e3145f36db4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We should try to automate AI safety work asap
This is a personal post and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of other members of Apollo Research. I think I could have written a better version of this post with more time. However, my main hope for this post is that people with more expertise use this post as a pr... |
60a3327b-b17e-4cdb-a619-1ab7393982fb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The Economist feature articles on LLMs
Lead article is quite a good visual representation and simple language explainer about how LLMs work.
<https://www.economist.com/interactive/science-and-technology/2023/04/22/large-creative-ai-models-will-transform-how-we-live-and-work>
Two other articles (paywalled) as well ... |
bdbbd672-ef0d-423a-be83-ef803f630b44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Alignment, Constraints, Control, Incentives or Partnership?
A quick search on AI benevolence did not really return much and I've not waded into the depths of the whole area. However I am wondering to what extent the current approach here is about constraining and controlling (call that bucket 1) versus that of ince... |
7cb95b7a-1d9c-4c35-84d8-82c7220a839d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Boxing
Labs should do "boxing," I hear. I'm confused about what kinds-of-systems this applies to and what labs should do to improve their "boxing."
Kinds-of-systems: my impression is that there's little direct threat from LMs simply undergoing gradient descent. But there's some risk from models deployed internally, e... |
8afe403b-b35b-4c90-a626-612628ad146d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | some thoughts about terminal alignment
some thoughts about terminal alignment
--------------------------------------
i think that, for solving [alignment](ai-doom.html), it's important to be able to delegate as much of the work as possible to processes that could do a better job than what we can come up with now.
... |
611da620-a4fb-4cd1-913f-f082e97a4da9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Brief Defense of Athleticism
Non-athletic thinkers are myopic. I see at least three very important reasons any rationalist must value exercise.
As someone who has trained extremely hard in distance running, sports in general and athletic conditioning in particular create an intuitive understanding of the fallaciou... |
fee02b5a-a312-4b2e-a7bc-f3384c2468e4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Decision-theoretic problems and Theories; An (Incomplete) comparative list
So, this is a work-in-progress, but the idea is to a) get an eventually exhaustive list of decision-theoretic problems, and b) detail the '''answers''' given by each major decision theory.
(Stretch goals would including listing other kinds of ... |
939dd106-2dc8-4c3c-a037-22448bfab976 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Jocko Podcast
I've recently been extracting extraordinary value from the Jocko Podcast.
Jocko Willink is a retired Navy SEAL commander, jiu-jitsu black belt, management consultant and, in my opinion, master rationalist. His podcast typically consists of detailed analysis of some book on military history or strategy f... |
5d10b5c8-27d1-43b4-9d8a-010da777a1a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Few Principles of Successful AI Design
Foreword: This post was originally submitted to Lab42 as part of an essay competition. The word count was limited to ~2,500 so there is a substantial amount of information that I have neglected to include. I did not win, so I decided to share it with you all today. Enjoy!
(Br... |
5a00fba8-6d88-448d-aacf-846f6e95f58d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Scientism vs. people
> *The Benefactor, the ancestor of Orwell's Big Brother, is the absolute ruler of OneState. ... He rules over a human society that is deemed to have achieved, with only negligible exceptions, absolute perfection. Men have finally become, if not actually machines, as machine-like as possible, utter... |
b0d2a341-b83a-42d9-84e0-5655f93aa4d8 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Edited for concreteness.
Exactly one year ago, LessWrong helped me change my mind about something important. Since then, my life has been changing very rapidly, as a direct result of the rationalist community. I got in touch with other rationalists in person, which made my social life vastly more interesting (not to s... |
3bbd26b3-fa4f-4278-82ef-089d12fb847c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Mo Gawdat - Scary Smart: A former Google exec's perspective on AI risk
[Music]
hey everyone and welcome back to the
tourist data science podcast now if you
were scrolling through your news feed in
september 2021 like i was and you
trained the social media algorithms to
show you content specifically related to
ai you m... |
019ee4f9-6cad-4322-b9e5-21950b469876 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | There are a lot of upcoming retreats/conferences between March and July (2025)
I have written this list up for ENAIS's Fieldbuilders Newsletter but I thought it would make sense to post this excerpt for increased visibility, as it is relevant for a larger audience, and I haven't seen such a summary elsewhere.
List of... |
993f8671-4225-495d-a663-835954b10215 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Books Review: "Sapiens", "Homo Deus" and "21 Lessons For The 21st Century", by Yuval Noah Harari
Introduction
In this review I will consider one of the most important literary and cultural phenomena of the last 20 years - the ambitious trilogy of the Israeli historian Yuval Noah Harari. In these three books Harari tak... |
f3bd3014-be0e-409c-9402-4ec2f87e535e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Timescales Matter
In an interview with John Baez, Eliezer responds:
> I’ll try to answer the question about timescales, but first let me explain in some detail why I don’t think the decision should be dominated by that question.
He was in part addressing the tradeoff between environmental work and work on technology... |
4be3ca03-7fb7-4b52-a998-91c7a57d59fd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Sample space
Motivation
===
If we are uncertain about some part of the world, then there are multiple different things that might happen there, as far as we know.
The sample space for a part of the world is the set of things that could possibly happen there. We can use a sample space to reason using [probability th... |
f2125cb7-46ff-4db9-9559-61ddc7100bde | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
This post is a transcript of a discussion between Paul Christiano, Ajeya Cotra, and Eliezer Yudkowsky on AGI forecasting, following up on Paul and Eliezer's ["Takeoff Speeds" discussion](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/n945eovrA3oDueqtq/p/vwLxd6hhFvPbvKmBH).
Color key:
... |
7ca28bba-5d3d-48f0-a82e-a205da0e1a69 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Adversarial NLI: A New Benchmark
for Natural Language Understanding
1 Introduction
---------------
Progress in AI has been driven by, among other things, the development of challenging large-scale benchmarks like ImageNet Russakovsky et al. ([2015](#bib.bib20 "Imagenet large scale visual recognition challenge")) i... |
46eff4f1-29d6-48f6-acf4-174dac872f11 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I'm getting married. We decided to take marriage vows very seriously, and write vows that we will be fully committed to uphold. These vows are going to be a commitment no weaker than any promise I ever made or any contract I ever signed. Therefore, it is very important to avoid serious errors in their content.
I'm int... |
e26e574f-f498-4875-8d8e-301a2584f69c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 3/25: Own Goals
AstraZeneca has made quite the mess of things. First they screwed up their initial studies in ways that kind of boggle the mind. Then, with the studies designed to repair trust, fix the problem and allow approval, they report incomplete results in order to make themselves look better, even though... |
09298ee3-e383-428c-b6f3-4a0c20e1a595 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Test meetup please ignore
Discussion article for the meetup : Test meetup please ignore
WHEN: 27 March 2017 11:18:40AM (-0700)
WHERE: antartica
sorry
Discussion article for the meetup : Test meetup please ignore |
2f57455b-7e3f-4f13-918d-8e0b709aa382 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Site Redesign Feedback Requested
For the past few months, the LessWrong team has been working on a redesign for the frontpage (which comes with some overall site redesigns).
We've currently got it up on our development branch on lessestwrong.com, and would appreciate some feedback before we roll it out. (This server ... |
0ae338be-6010-4e4d-a0bb-6a2d0cb71cae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GreaterWrong—several new features & enhancements
(I hope it’s acceptable to post this in the Meta section; if not, the mods can move it to my personal blog.)
GreaterWrong.com (which is an alternative way to browse the new LessWrong) has been adding some new features and enhancements—here’s some of the stuff we’ve got... |
c961bb97-3139-4de2-9e46-10dc8701b0bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : DC Meetup Learns Decision Theory
Discussion article for the meetup : DC Meetup Learns Decision Theory
WHEN: 07 August 2011 01:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Washington, DC
Meetup is at a private residence, contact Benquo for details.
Our very own Jeff has agreed to present on decision theory.
Discussion article... |
5de39c3c-3df4-41ff-a10d-6777fda34577 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AISN #25: White House Executive Order on AI, UK AI Safety Summit, and Progress on Voluntary Evaluations of AI Risks
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the [Center for AI Safety](https://www.safe.ai/). We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
Subscribe [here](https://newslette... |
21885318-2ae9-4a44-b830-286be17ad91f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | There is a line in the sand, just not where you think it is
There is a mistake in updating beliefs around norms that I have seen multiple times in different contexts made by different people. This is my attempt to classify this (fallacy? /mistake?), in order to give it a name and make it easier to refer to.
A friend ... |
7f8cec5b-ebde-4d67-b1dd-3c9e1e202cd4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why don't more people talk about ecological psychology?
An intermediate step in the abstraction staircase
I can't claim to have deep knowledge or understanding about the topic, but ecological dynamics seems like a really interesting and underrated approach, and nobody else has done it, so I'll do my best.
If you've n... |
882a4aec-5a95-4487-a112-793027ac11cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Singularity Institute Party Feb 22nd
"I, For One, Welcome Our New Computer Overlords"
Tuesday, February 22, 2011 - 7pm to 10pm
Mingle with our team and enjoy cocktails, appetizers and a screening of Watson's victory
If you would like to request an invitation, please email amywilley@gmail.com
This is an invite only ev... |
cc0ac2bd-b640-4f0f-83c8-8ab0f1dc1909 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How’s that Epistemic Spot Check Project Coming?
Quick context: Epistemic spot checks started as a process in which I did quick investigations a few of a book’s early claims to see if it was trustworthy before continuing to read it, in order to avoid wasting time on books that would teach me wrong things. Epistemic ... |
8df740e0-2810-45f0-b1e4-0f5964af184b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to tell apart science from pseudo-science in a field you don't know ?
First, a short personal note to make you understand why this is important to me. To make a long story short, the son of a friend has some atypical form of autism and language troubles. And that kid matters a lot to me, so I want to become strong... |
36eb3b66-4718-419d-b753-790f3e166c5a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI Governance Needs Technical Work
Summary and introduction
========================
People who want to improve the trajectory of AI sometimes think their options for object-level work are (i) technical safety work and (ii) non-technical governance work. But that list misses things; another group of arguably promisi... |
c3c51ecd-8be9-40c8-8430-e85ef4c8ab61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When Truth Isn't Enough
Continuation of: The Power of Positivist Thinking
Consider this statement:
> The ultra-rich, who control the majority of our planet's wealth, spend their time at cocktail parties and salons while millions of decent hard-working people starve.
A soft positivist would be quite happy with this ... |
cc36ed7c-8750-4658-a99b-ce885b1c7e2d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The Dilemma of Ultimate Technology
**1. The Dilemma of Ultimate Technology**
-----------------------------------------
Similar to the Prisoner's Dilemma in game theory, I will establish a thought model for the dilemma of ultimate technology.
**1)There are two individuals, A and B.**
**2)A and B each have two option... |
d5986470-aff5-4177-a0cd-b500bf7987d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Guide for Productivity
This is a cross-post from my personal blog.
What is this post about?
While there are tons of guides out there that promise to increase your productivity 10x overnight most of them seem full of empty promises and don't even define what it is they actually mean by productivity. Due to this abs... |
cede15d8-4723-4304-8960-7c8324afb638 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Vestigial reasoning in RL
TL;DR: I claim that many reasoning patterns that appear in chains-of-thought are not actually used by the model to come to its answer, and can be more accurately thought of as historical artifacts of training. This can be true even for CoTs that are apparently "faithful" to the true reasons f... |
ee2bd507-e08c-4bb3-81aa-60189f866187 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Ngo and Yudkowsky on AI capability gains
This is the second post in a series of transcribed conversations about AGI forecasting and alignment. See the [first post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/iGYTt3qvJFGppxJbk/ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty) for prefaces and more information about the format.
... |
4f03d5d0-9bfc-443d-b91b-278ceb59c673 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Security Mindset, S-Risk and Publishing Prosaic Alignment Research
Note: I no longer endorse this post as strongly as I did when publishing it. I now agree with Neel Nanda's criticism and endorse this position. I still think the analysis in the post could be useful, but I wanted to include this note at the beginni... |
3051af29-1703-486b-88ed-f74c0ba843d1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Markets are Universal for Logical Induction
Background
----------
[Logical Induction](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03543.pdf) is the best framework currently available for thinking about logical uncertainty - i.e. the “probability” that the [twin primes conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime#History) is t... |
f598b190-3a77-46d8-a244-e5e0a96b1cc6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | US Taxes: Adjust Withholding When Donating?
A friend recently asked:
> I am considering increasing my donation amount to a 2-digit percentage of income, and was wondering about the logistics of federal/state income tax withholdings.
>
> Do you have your employer reduce withholdings upfront? Was it simple to have the... |
1cc0a337-b0a8-4e5e-bb05-2e3e2c5a604a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Leverage
If you want to change the world then you need to act on scale. A single human being cannot act on scale directly. You need leverage. Leverage is mechanism by which you can cause an impact several orders of magnitude bigger than yourself.
Sam Altman gives five examples of leverage: delegation, capital, brand,... |
61959258-a692-44ef-9637-3d7fea53fc16 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
*Click lower right to download or find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc.*
I've argued that the development of advanced AI could make this the [most important century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) for humanity. A common reaction to this... |
71309f8d-c1bc-423e-938e-07769dd938e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | CAIDP Statement on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems
Summary:
Key Concerns with Lethal Autonomous Weapons
⚠️ ❗ Unpredictability and Lack of Control
⚠️ ❗ Exponential Lethality
⚠️ ❗ Ethical and Legal Implications
Recommendations
1️⃣ Immediate Moratorium: Enact a temporary ban on deploying LAWS until
comprehensive ... |
c5cad574-0796-4453-a0ab-1d6ae43fb54d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Interpretable and Pedagogical Examples.
1 Introduction
---------------
Human teachers give informative examples to help their students learn concepts faster and more accurately (Shafto et al., [2014](#bib.bib23); Shafto & Goodman, [2008](#bib.bib21); Buchsbaum et al., [2011](#bib.bib5)). For example, suppose a teac... |
0d9d9b7c-188f-44d9-a286-f76aaf1e717a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Irvine Meetup Tuesday June 21
There are some adjustments to the weekly meetups in Irvine:
The meetup for June 15th is cancelled because the regular attendees are on vacation that week.
The following week, the meetup will be Tuesday June 21, instead of Wednesday. We expect special guests Alicorn and Yvain to attend.
... |
93f68a6a-3638-4971-8773-aa407fc47a70 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Commutativity: Intuition
# Commutativity as an artifact of notation
Instead of thinking of a commutative function $f(x, y)$ as a function that takes an ordered pair of inputs, we can think of $f$ as a function that takes an unordered [bag](https://arbital.com/p/3jk) of inputs, and therefore _can't_ depend on their or... |
f0face0d-8261-453c-af80-9cc037818bed | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Disagreements about Alignment: Why, and how, we should try to solve them
Tldr
====
1. AI Alignment does not follow the standard scientific method.
2. Therefore, we might not agree on which research agendas have the potential to align AGI systems.
3. We should work intentionally to build consensus around the foundatio... |
6d8ccd2b-14e0-4e35-b494-05b7072d2c70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Parsing Chris Mingard on Neural Networks
This is independent research. To make further posts like this possible, please consider supporting me.
Epistemic status: This is my understanding of multiple years of technical work by several researchers in just a few days of reading.
----------------------------------------... |
7042fa3e-bf94-4997-bdab-861bfc17b4fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fudging Work and Rationalization
If you want to do extraordinary things, you will need to do your best.
In practical sciences, this can come as a form of precision, typical analytical chemistry is done to some degree by hand (!) and involves literally weighing out milligram-precise quantities of substances, and putti... |
248fdc70-7e5e-47de-99b3-1284e9884ef7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Padeborn Meetup May 8th
Discussion article for the meetup : Padeborn Meetup May 8th
WHEN: 08 May 2013 07:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Gownsmen's Pub, Uni Paderborn, Warburger Straße 100, Paderborn
We are meeting once again in Paderborn.
The topics of this evening will probably include some thinking on how to in... |
58dab255-854b-4bca-b022-091d708a2b3e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wrong Tomorrow
Wrong Tomorrow by Maciej Cegłowski is a very simple site for listing pundit predictions and tracking them [FAQ]. It doesn't come with prices and active betting... but a simple registry of this kind can scale much faster than a market, and right now we're in a situation where no one is bothering to trac... |
ca75a6be-2719-4561-bafd-d1fa5b4c77b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Maximally efficient agents will probably have an anti-daemon immune system
(the ideas in this post came out of a conversation with Scott, Critch, Ryan, and Tsvi, plus a separate conversation with Paul)
Consider the problem of optimization daemons. I argued previously that daemons shouldn't be a problem for idealized ... |
0b702093-1346-4c41-8004-c02381914f65 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] On Doing the Impossible
Today's post, On Doing the Impossible was originally published on 06 October 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> A lot of projects seem impossible, meaning that we don't immediately see a way to do them. But after working on them for a long time, they start to look merel... |
4483f2d2-1f6f-4609-b638-7dd23f89c9cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Consequentialism is in the Stars not Ourselves
Polished from my shortform.
Epistemic Status
Thinking out loud.
----------------------------------------
Introduction
I've argued that system wide/total optimisation for an objective function in the real world is so computationally intractable as to be prohibited b... |
e936fb6e-7c06-49df-9aff-e843c220e38a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Group rationality diary, 5/28/12
This is the public group instrumental rationality diary for the week of May 28th. It's a place to record and chat about it if you have done, or are actively doing, things like:
* Established a useful new habit
* Obtained new evidence that made you change your mind about some belief... |
f818899e-b174-4397-83ae-0d19613ef4f7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Reasons for my negative feelings towards the AI risk discussion
I have been a member of my local EA chapter since it was founded by a group of my friends. At the beginning, I participated semi-regularly at meetings and events, but have long since stopped all participation even though my friends have instead changed th... |
32aa4f25-cbd1-481d-b0e1-f1a5c85d2114 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How did academia ensure papers were correct in the early 20th Century?
In the post 'Four layers of Intellectual Conversation', Eliezer says that both the writer of an idea, and the person writing a critique of that idea, need to expect to have to publicly defend what they say at least one time. Otherwise they can writ... |
eaef9aa7-a421-4add-8a99-8d6a8900e54f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Board Games "Seattle"
Discussion article for the meetup : Board Games
WHEN: 11 August 2012 02:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: Redmond, WA, USA
Play board games. Have fun. Have fun while playing board games. The agenda is straightforward. Bring friends or games if you like. Here's the thread with more details includi... |
e91bba20-4171-43e5-8f5f-a56459549d9f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Oversimplification when generalizing from DNA?
I changed the old topic because it was misleading and did not convey the questioning intention of this post. Sorry about that.
The point of this post is to examine the proposition that people underestimate the complexity of living beings from examining them through the c... |
81d2a9c6-0efa-48b2-ad41-eda1baeb6058 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How's it going with the Universal Cultural Takeover? Part I
Warning: this is a long post, split over two parts. Part II is here.
David Reinstein points me at a 2016 exchange between Bryan Caplan and Scott Alexander over a fine point of nomenclature: is the culture that is taking over the world “Western” or “universal... |
b9288dec-50fa-466b-b20a-f04d449385bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Governance Needs Technical Work
Summary and Introduction
People who want to improve the trajectory of AI sometimes think their options for object-level work are (i) technical work on AI alignment or (ii) non-technical work on AI governance. But there is a whole other category of options: technical work in AI govern... |
111e3c51-a0df-426b-bc7e-02a54abcf7ab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anthropic is further accelerating the Arms Race?
Anthropic is raising even more funds and the pitch deck seems scary. A choice quote from the article:
> These models could begin to automate large portions of the economy,” the pitch deck reads. “We believe that companies that train the best 2025/26 models will be too ... |
d1eadda1-a0e1-460a-b62f-4e90b72acc17 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ray Kurzweil joins Google to work on AI (link)
I am very curious what will come out of this. Does Kurzweil really have some insightful ideas that will help advance AI? He used to be quite the technocrat, but I have the feeling that he is more a philosopher these days than a technical person. But maybe progress toward ... |
0fc05c02-3d81-4c2f-8f42-6b378f375a78 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] OpenAI's Interim CEO's views on AI x-risk
This is a linkpost for https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=6285&v=ICnFtfN-sUc and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cw_ckNH-tT8&t=2466s.
Overall, I found their views surprisingly nuanced, including e.g. compared to Sam Altman's. |
32c7b315-77ab-4f2d-9389-116280c74343 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Draft] Poker With Lennier
In J. Michael Straczynski's science fiction TV show Babylon 5, there's a character named Lennier. He's pretty Spock-like: he's a long-lived alien who avoids displaying emotion and feels superior to humans in intellect and wisdom. He's sworn to always speak the truth. In one episode, he and a... |
fbf3ab52-9b07-4c94-b0ed-5c8a9d4c2570 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Iason Gabriel on Foundational Philosophical Questions in AI Alignment
[Music]
[Music]
welcome to the ai
alignment podcast i'm lucas perry
today we have a conversation with yasen
gabriel
about a recent paper that he wrote
titled artificial intelligence
values and alignment this episode
primarily explores how
moral and ... |
3e11527f-08ed-477b-93b9-986f16ea6afa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Teachable Rationality Skills
Recent brainstorming sessions at SIAI (with participants including Anna, Carl, Jasen, Divia, Will, Amy Willey, and Andrew Critch) have started to produce lists of rationality skills that we could potentially try to teach (at Rationality Boot Camp, at Less Wrong meetups, or similar venues).... |
2198bb3e-6f75-4564-bfa8-3d4244db4a20 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Agent57: Outperforming the Atari Human Benchmark
1 Introduction
---------------
The Arcade Learning Environment (ALE; Bellemare et al., [2013](#bib.bib14 "The arcade learning environment: an evaluation platform for general agents")) was proposed as a platform for empirically assessing agents designed for general co... |
d38bd449-b4a2-40d1-8eec-2317c7368bae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Experiments in Evaluating Steering Vectors
By evaluating how well steering vectors perform using GPT-3, we can score a machine-generated set of steering vectors automatically. We also find that, by combining steering vectors that succeed in different ways, we can yield a better and more general steering vector than th... |
cb09f537-9275-4493-b4e8-fe8c7964b843 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Recreating logic in type theory
This is the second entry in my series on type theory. In this post, we will talk about how to recreate logic in type theory.
As you might know, in order to define ZFC set theory, you first define first-order (FO) logic separately, and then specify the ZFC axioms in the language of FO l... |
f4b1a1f4-3b4e-4cc8-bbd5-a0394f623836 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "The Journal of Real Effects"
Luke's recent post mentioned that The Lancet has a policy encouraging the advance registration of clinical trials, while mine examined an apparent case study of data-peeking and on-the-fly transformation of studies. But how much variation is there across journals on such dimensions? Are t... |
4c5913b2-38c5-4b19-beb7-d4c0e712950e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Explicitness
[Metadata: crossposted from https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2023/03/explicitness.html. First completed March 3, 2023.]
Explicitness is out-foldedness. An element of a mind is explicit when it is available to relate to other elements when suitable.
Thanks to Sam Eisenstat for related conversations.
Note: Th... |
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