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8dc2bdab-2eac-400f-ac6b-1ebe38e23573 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Imagine if there was a financial pundit who kept saying "Something really bad is brewing in the markets and we may be headed for a recession. But we can't know when recessions will come, nobody can predict them". And then every time there was a selloff in ... |
4278e2a4-7e80-4cff-a099-c03744b5af9a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | NTIA - AI Accountability Announcement
The Department of Commerce is announcing a new policy on AI Accountability today, with an event at 12pm EST, April 11th.
The linked page also includes a link to the new policy.
There is an opportunity to leave comments on the policy until June 10th. |
8b19934a-5fc1-42f7-bbe9-8f3b2c392206 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gratitude Thread :-)
Hi folks! Building up on the recent experiment and the #LessWrongMoreNice meme, this thread is devoted to any and all expressions of gratitude. Special rules for communication and voting apply here. Please play along!
A lot of research shows that expressing gratitude improves mental and physic... |
43b1ea8b-7aa5-475d-bc32-57469a0809fd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Space races: Settling the universe Fast
Space races: settling the universe fast
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute,
Oxford Martin School,
University of Oxford
January 24, 2018
Abstract
This report examines the issue of the resource demands and constraints
for very fast large-scale settlement by technological... |
8b5b1256-ab79-44e5-b7cb-00115541399c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Benefits of Two Religious Educations
It seems fitting that my first post here be an origin story, of sorts. Like any origin story, it is overly reductionistic and attributes a single cause to an overdetermined phenomenon. There's an old Spider-Man comic that claims that even if he hadn't been bitten by a radioac... |
55135d45-9051-4635-9e9d-b6b8487edbc7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Estimation Game: a monthly Fermi estimation web app
Announcing the first monthly Estimation Game:
* Answer 10 Fermi estimation questions, like “How many piano tuners are there in New York?”
* Train your estimation skills and get more comfortable putting numbers on things
* Team up with friends, or play solo
*... |
195d9bd4-c724-4372-9072-3b625e96c9b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What would an ultra-intelligent machine make of the great filter?
Imagine that an ultra-intelligent machine emerges from an intelligence explosion. The AI (a) finds no trace of extraterrestrial intelligence, (b) calculates that many star systems should have given birth to star faring civilizations so mankind hasn’... |
bc6423ae-e65b-444e-89e6-4cd430766aaf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Benchmarking Bowtie2 Threading
I've been using Bowtie2 to align reads to genomes, and one of it's many settings is the number of threads. While sometimes people advise using about as many threads as your machine has cores, but if I'm running on a big machine are there diminishing returns or a point at which more threa... |
f1104f7b-2e9b-4c00-9669-04c00e9880f1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Quantifying curation
---
Table of Contents* [Motivation (and why we need HITL to understand language models)](#motivation-and-why-we-need-hitl-to-understand-language-models)
* [Theory](#theory)
+ [Probability magnification](#probability-magnification)
+ [Bits of optimization](#bits-of-optimization)
+ [Optimization... |
c555d37c-deb8-46dd-a876-cecffd30e4f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A well-defined history in measurable factor spaces
PDF
This is a technical post researching infinite factor spaces
In a factor space F=⨉i∈IFi, for a measurable Z:F→Z(F), a Z-measurable index function J:F→{0,1}I is generating X:F→X(F), if X depends only on those arguments (xi), where J(x)i is 1, and Z. In this post, ... |
c9fbbf9e-deb7-4c57-a020-cbad0a009752 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ideas for tiny research projects related to rationality?
As part of a course I have to write a small research paper in about a month. I would greatly appreciate any inspiration for a rationality-adjacent research questions for this paper. By course requirements, I have to justify that the research question is at least... |
c78e02ec-a598-4bfb-a56d-6484ed5e5d98 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cached Procrastination
I have a paper to write. Where do I start? The first time I asked this question, it was easy: just sit down and start typing. I wrote a few hundred words, then got stuck; I needed to think some more, so I took a break and did something else. Over the next few days, my thoughts on the subject set... |
c93ce5fd-f12c-4636-97e1-76a01a2a3177 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Puzzle Games
I like puzzle games. I have aesthetic opinions about puzzle games. This post is meant to be a resource for people whose preferences about puzzle games have a lot in common with mine. It includes a list of game recommendations.
Rules about Spoilers
This post will be very spoiler-free. The only things inf... |
2a498731-3a16-4c38-8f22-87deecf8d5cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Job Opening: SWE to help build signature vetting system for AI-related petitions
Update: this role has been filled. Thanks for your attention and applications!
Full-Stack Software Engineer Position - AI Policy Petition Platform Development
Survival and Flourishing .Com (SFC) seeks a competent Full-Stack Software Eng... |
82cf4e48-cf1c-4719-abf4-8109e9a9a7b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Utrecht
Discussion article for the meetup : Utrecht
WHEN: 03 May 2014 05:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Utrecht, Catharijnensingel 49-A
A growing number of rationalists and effective altruists is joining us to share ideas and help each other to be rational, to improve themselves and to make the world a better plac... |
27d611a7-3a05-4d75-8793-7c59f06888fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Spherical cow
"Are you about to assume the lotus position?" asked Pat.
"I'm about to assume a spherical cow," retorted the Zen master.
"That's a physicist's term," Pat noted.
"I studied physics when I was younger," continued the master. "Physics will teach you how to send a rocket to the moon. It can't teach you ho... |
e0792963-71cc-4abd-88e5-70291811e6e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Logic "Really" Works: An Engineering Perspective
When you hear "logic," what comes to mind? Probably strict rules, truth tables, or the classic "if A, then B." It all seems clear—until you try to apply it to real life, where things rarely fit so neatly.
But what if logic isn't just about formulas? What if, at its... |
0bc829b7-b97b-48c1-907c-6f830539f0d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In Defence of Temporal Discounting in Longtermist Ethics
Introduction
My thoughts on temporal discounting in longtermist ethics.
Two Senses of Normative Ethics
There are two basic senses of a normative moral system:
1. Criterion of judgment: "what is right/good; wrong/evil?"
2. Decision procedure: "how should I a... |
4ab64900-d9af-4707-b533-228ddfa2ac0b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Skill Acquisition
Summary: Juggle! Draw an egg! Sing! Learn some sign language! The ideal rational agent should be capable of picking up new skills quickly and with a minimal amount of training. So practice practicing things!
Tags: Large, Repeatable
Purpose: To learn how to learn, studying how you acquire a new skil... |
bc5b026b-33f4-494d-b727-37c462048e23 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong |
Living Nomadically: My 80/20 Guide
I’ve been living nomadically for three years, and I’m often asked what my advice is for people trying it. Here’s the 80/20 of all my advice:
* Work out of restaurants and 5-star resorts. They’re gorgeous and if you pay for a meal, ~99.9% of restaurants and resorts are fine with yo... |
a106ecba-7ae6-48d9-8772-76e8b3c1f720 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Brain-computer interfaces and brain organoids in AI alignment?
From my understanding, AI alignment is difficult because AI models would struggle to understand human values.
Could progress in technology like [brain-computer interfaces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain%E2%80%93computer_interface) that [Neuralink](ht... |
694f25c1-b684-49cd-ba3b-65a8c1028703 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Russian x-risks newsletter winter 2020-2021: free vaccines for foreigners, bird flu outbreak, one more nuclear near-miss in the past and one now, new AGI institute.
I got my covid vaccination in December and it easily available in Moscow, especially in malls, where only an ID is required for a jab. Thus, foreigners ca... |
b4bf51ce-64eb-422f-b572-c4e1987795ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Superintelligence Is Not Omniscience
The Power of Intelligence
It is often implicitly assumed that the power of a superintelligence will be practically unbounded. There seems like there could be “ample headroom” above humans, i.e. that a superintelligence will be able to vastly outperform us across virtually all domai... |
d0f7d484-2884-4b2d-973c-0a98c3652efb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | To err is neural: select logs with ChatGPT
This post includes some portions of my logs with ChatGPT, where I asked it basic arithmetic questions and it made several mistakes. I have used bold for cases where it made incorrect statements, and italics for cases where it made correct statements that directly contradicted... |
e3bda5cf-6acb-4279-a774-37fb75dbad57 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Baltimore
Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore
WHEN: 02 April 2017 08:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Performing Arts and Humanities Building, 1000 Hilltop Cir, Baltimore, MD 21250, United States
We’ll be meeting to discuss ... anything. Suggested Reading: Guided By The Beauty Of Our Weapons from Slate Sta... |
9fa84cde-b7cc-40cf-a7b7-a12c94c628d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why isn't JS a popular language for deep learning?
I've just read this book, which introduces TensorFlow.js: https://www.manning.com/books/deep-learning-with-javascript
Now I'm wondering why JS is so unpopular for deep learning, especially compared to Python. For deep learning there all the usual benefits of using JS... |
a1c2334f-7f47-4b14-97f4-2daba49e25bc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Natural language alignment
I think a potentially promising and undertheorized approach to AI safety, especially in short timelines, is *natural language alignment* (NLA), a form of [AI-assisted alignment](https://www.alignmentforum.org/tag/ai-assisted-alignment-1) in which we leverage the model’s rich understanding of... |
334c38c3-86a0-452a-8f3a-b8103ff823aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Experience Restarting Contra
BIDA, the contra dance that I help organize, has now had two dances since resuming. These have been with masks, proof of vaccination, boosters if eligible, email addresses for contact tracing, and as much ventilation as possible, which isn't that much in our hall. There were a few surprise... |
5845cc39-09a3-4da3-818d-1bde679576ba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What are the differences between a singularity, an intelligence explosion, and a hard takeoff?
These are all terms for future processes that could rapidly result in superintelligence. They have been used by different people, at different times, with overlapping and sometimes changing meanings.
- A **(technological) s... |
f0b41cbf-cf8a-4be3-8a48-b438313ff349 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Current AI Models Seem Sufficient for Low-Risk, Beneficial AI
Note: Mostly opinion/speculation, hoping to encourage further discussion.
Summary: Current AI models have demonstrated amazing capabilities. It seems feasible to turn them into usable products without much additional scaling. These models are probably safe... |
697bc00c-b9d5-428d-ad67-d8a6345139b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Question about meetup location address format ..
(This is an admin question.)
I haven't seen any meetups proposed in Singapore thus far and thought of posting one. However, the "submit" on the page comes back and says "you must supply a location", even when I do have the field filled (I set it to "Starbucks at Univer... |
4b487136-bbcd-4a63-bf5e-26d9276fb5b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Measurement, Optimization, and Take-off Speed
Crossposted from my blog, Bounded Regret.
In machine learning, we are obsessed with datasets and metrics: progress in areas as diverse as natural language understanding, object recognition, and reinforcement learning is tracked by numerical scores on agreed-upon benchmark... |
cc88320f-d9f4-4423-a156-3579b1c106c9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | categories of knowledge representation
categories of knowledge representation
--------------------------------------
i broadly recognize six ways in which information systems (including persons) represent knowledge.
**type 1: monistic.** monism is the absence of categorization of... |
969223dd-e56a-410b-a854-397b29a97326 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A quick list of reward hacking interventions
This is a quick list of interventions that might help fix issues from reward hacking.
(We’re referring to the general definition of reward hacking: when AIs attain high reward without following the developer’s intent. So we’re counting things like sycophancy, not just algo... |
d59744d0-51c7-49a9-81e3-9289701afd5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's the best time-efficient alternative to the Sequences?
The sequences are pretty long, and even the Highlights of the Sequences and the CFAR Handbook are pretty long, even though they're the next best thing. Much too long for me to recommend to the busy people in my life so they can try out rationality for the fi... |
abab8c50-059b-4933-b05e-97bf8335a2c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Frequently Asked Questions for Central Banks Undershooting Their Inflation Target
If you are a central bank undershooting your inflation target, please read this first before posting a question about how to create more inflation.
----------------------------------------
Q. Help! I keep undershooting my 2% inflation ... |
56bec05e-a886-4adc-a599-57ad827be013 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I'm leaving AI alignment – you better stay
This diagram summarizes the requirements for independent AI alignment research and how they are connected.
In this post I'll outline my four-year-long attempt at becoming an AI alignment researcher. It's an ‘I did X [including what I did wrong], and here's how it went’ post ... |
ddd55622-adc8-4c61-a687-1aef40ef6aae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Safely controlling the AGI agent reward function
In this fifth post in the sequence, I show the construction a counterfactual planning agent with an input terminal that can be used to iteratively improve the agent's reward function while it runs.
The goal is to construct an agent which has has no direct incentive to ... |
99c1c556-0288-4bf0-83d6-aba0146eeb59 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Rice's Theorem: Intro (Math 1)
Rice's Theorem says that you can't in general figure out anything about what a computer program outputs just by looking at the program. Specifically, we think of programs as taking inputs, doing some kind of computation on the input, and possibly eventually stopping and giving an output.... |
250b9e3f-b995-4600-9068-552e10b04406 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking information relevant to deciding whether to try to become an AI researcher and, if so, how.
I was initially going to title this post, "try to become an AI researcher and, if so, how?" but see Hold Off On Proposing Solutions. So instead, I'm going to ask people to give me as much relevant information as possibl... |
30c0fb77-61d4-4d9f-ba94-9db3cdb9a7a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Selling real estate: should you overprice or underprice?
Warning: Written in a hurry, and I am very much not an expert. Very open to corrections.
Warning: I am mainly thinking of hot (rising prices, lots of would-be buyers) residential real estate markets within the USA; this post might or might not generalize beyond... |
85fc11bf-e7b7-4efe-8049-446caa7cc92e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | on the dollar-yen exchange rate
Recently, the yen-dollar exchange rate hit a 34-year low. Why is that?
----------------------------------------
6-month US Treasuries are paying around 5.3% interest. Japanese government bonds are paying about 0%. That being the case, you can borrow yen, trade it for dollars, buy US b... |
cfe1460e-5fdf-47a0-b9f0-246ad2ed7c63 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's Wrong with Evidential Decision Theory?
With all the exotic decision theories floating around here, it doesn't seem like anyone has tried to defend boring old evidential decision theory since AlexMennen last year. So I thought I'd take a crack at it. I might come off a bit more confident than I am, since I'm d... |
f9b19eda-9dd9-4694-a740-586b0c375dbe | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Modeling Friends and Foes
1 Introduction
---------------
How can agents detect friendly and adversarial behavior from raw data?
Discovering whether an environment (or a part within) is a friend or a foe
is a poorly understood yet desirable skill for safe and robust agents.
Possessing this skill is important for a n... |
81c27541-bccd-44a0-9d34-49b821bc041b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Asshole Filter
|
9e1c4d18-c9ef-4ed0-96ea-1ab5dc47fee4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC fun and games meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC fun and games meetup
WHEN: 15 September 2013 03:00:00AM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, Washington, DC 20001, USA
We'll be meeting to hang out and play games.
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC f... |
e5157782-0057-49c2-a897-36896d88497d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Early draft of naturalistic reflection paper
Update: See [Reflection in Probabilistic Logic](http://lesswrong.com/lw/h1k/reflection_in_probabilistic_logic/) for more details on how this result relates to MIRI’s research mission.
In a recent [blog post](http://intelligence.org/2013/03/07/upcoming-miri-research-worksh... |
ae07c465-53ea-4def-a931-79c5d7a8f9e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Old] Mapmaking Series
A few years ago I had a different blog than my current one and I wrote two series of posts there. I no longer think they are especially good, but thanks to my recent linking of the second series in comments on a discussion here on LW, I have gotten feedback that they were useful to a couple peop... |
411005b6-619d-4bea-bf1e-4b12672e5da7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Problems as dragons and papercuts
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/problems-as-dragons-and-papercuts/
When I started trying to become the kind of person that can give advice, I went looking for dragons.
I figured if I didn't know the answers that meant the answers were hard, they were big monsters with hidden we... |
c98bd475-2aad-46eb-82f7-8c4a9e02e807 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Recently at AI Impacts
*By Katja Grace, 24 November 2015*
We’ve been working on a few longer term projects lately, so here’s an update in the absence of regular page additions.
### New researchers
Stephanie Zolayvar and John Salvatier have recently joined us, to try out research here.
Stephanie recently moved ... |
bee4d971-b423-48a6-99d2-44f6b2037fab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GreaterWrong Arbital Viewer
You can now view Arbital through GreaterWrong: https://arbital.greaterwrong.com/
Some of Arbital's features are supported and some aren't; let me know in the comments if there's anything you're particularly missing.
Thanks to emmab for downloading the content. |
014a079b-221b-49ce-904a-5b8144f342aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alignment Newsletter #18
Highlights
Learning Dexterity (Many people at OpenAI): Most current experiments with robotics work on relatively small state spaces (think 7 degrees of freedom, each a real number) and are trained in simulation. If we could throw a lot of compute at the problem, could we do significantly bett... |
9e0ee56d-3782-4dfa-aea6-4a8a715214d1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Could Simulating an AGI Taking Over the World Actually Lead to a LLM Taking Over the World?
As you know, large language models can be understood as [simulators](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vJFdjigzmcXMhNTsx/simulators) or more simply as models predicting what token would plausibly appear next after a first sequen... |
0f440b83-0742-4e0a-88a1-8f783db95c8e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scaling Wargaming for Global Catastrophic Risks with AI
We’re developing an AI-enabled wargaming-tool, grim, to significantly scale up the number of catastrophic scenarios that concerned organizations can explore and to improve emergency response capabilities of, at least, Sentinel.
Table of Contents
1. How AI Impr... |
63ec574b-6e49-4675-9066-b95908cab4a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against strong bayesianism
Note that this post has been edited in response to feedback and comments. In particular, I've added the word "strong" into the title, and an explanation of it at the beginning of the post, to be clearer what position I'm critiquing. I've also edited the discussion of Blockhead.
In this post... |
61980529-9f4b-4356-b742-b4302a07e935 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Christiano and Yudkowsky on AI predictions and human intelligence
This is a transcript of a conversation between Paul Christiano and Eliezer Yudkowsky, with comments by Rohin Shah, Beth Barnes, Richard Ngo, and Holden Karnofsky, continuing the [Late 2021 MIRI Conversations](https://intelligence.org/late-2021-miri-conv... |
1d1bd8ce-1fe4-4d40-9d74-9a77a0b89479 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Columbia University Meetup
During Eliezer's whirlwind tour of New York City recently, I met several rationalists who were also students at Columbia University. It seemed like it might be a good idea to start a club. While there is a NYC Less Wrong Meetup group, many students I know feel that it's a hassle to go downto... |
fbbe3c09-f954-4c2a-8ceb-317c409a8a75 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deontological Evil
It surprised Doctor Susan Connor how quickly she had gotten used to her job. At first she had qualms working for an organization literally called "Effective Evil" (with two capital 'E's). But her job just gave her so much autonomy, complexity and reward. Also nemeses.
"I'll never talk," said the sp... |
1bd90bba-3adf-4a94-a711-432162444ca4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Instrumental convergence is what makes general intelligence possible
*TL;DR: General intelligence is possible because solving real-world problems requires solving common subtasks. Common subtasks are what give us instrumental convergence. Common subtasks are also what make AI useful; you* want *AIs to pursue instrumen... |
d281a79c-c919-4366-87d6-da43d59bf985 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Phil Zimbardo answering questions on Reddit
http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/untpp/i_am_a_published_psychologist_author_of_the/
Starts tomorrow (June 7) at 12PM ET (1600 GMT) (thanks to khafra for the correction). |
cb070f81-8951-4026-979c-f06926dcf0ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The "Adults in the Room"
Significant spoilers for mad investor chaos and the woman of asmodeus (planecrash Book 1).
Dath ilan has put significant effort into protecting what it has to protect. To that end, it's thought quite a bit about how to think effectively. Dath ilan knows how to train people to preempt reality,... |
c84d09f7-e650-4fe1-8202-3de80b5e4547 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Six Thoughts on AI Safety
[Crossposted from windowsontheory]
The following statements seem to be both important for AI safety and are not widely agreed upon. These are my opinions, not those of my employer or colleagues. As is true for anything involving AI, there is significant uncertainty about everything written b... |
ddc0782f-a383-4c42-835d-f979a6e2851b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Childhood Roundup #3
It’s time once again for a roundup of all the childhood-related stories I’ve noticed since the last such post that don’t fit in elsewhere.
In addition to the standard post, I have a personal note, which is that unfortunately our current nanny’s health does not allow her to continue, and thus we i... |
aa3e0f62-c2eb-4272-8b38-dced75c6d4e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dominus' Razor
You are probably familiar with Hanlon’s Razor, the adage that you should never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by stupidity. In Bayesian terms, stupidity is sufficiently abundant that even fairly strong evidence of harmful intent can’t overcome the base rate. However, there is somet... |
a725d89d-e56f-4f56-86bc-f04674a1fc6a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Total compute available to evolution
I’m looking for estimates of the total compute available to evolution:
Total number of cell divisions
Total number of times a DNA nucleotide was transcribed to RNA
Total number of times an RNA codon was translated to an amino acid
Total number of base pairs in all genomes
Tota... |
503a4a09-4308-4ad1-a240-37f0c05fc0d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are there good reasons to get into a PHD (i.e. in Philosophy)? And what to optimize for in such case?
There are pretty strong reasons to be wary of academic philosophy. And the question here is whether there are good things to optimize for which come alongside a PHD generally, and also in particular in philosophy. So... |
ea088810-87ea-449e-909f-7d1265dfb459 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Transparency Trichotomy
Introduction
============
In [Relaxed Adversarial Training for Inner Alignment](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/9Dy5YRaoCxH9zuJqa/relaxed-adversarial-training-for-inner-alignment#The_core_problem__transparency), Evan presents a trichotomy of ways to understand a model M:
1. **Transpare... |
71f3b208-8490-40ad-b1ef-8c11806c7423 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AMA on EA Forum: Ajeya Cotra, researcher at Open Phil
Hi all, I'm Ajeya, and I'll be doing an AMA on the EA Forum (this is a linkpost for my announcement there). I would love to get questions from LessWrong and Alignment Forum users as well -- please head on over if you have any questions for me!
I’ll plan to start a... |
52afdd34-8d18-4ad9-95c1-b24aaf2dd402 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Likelihood Ratios for Out-of-Distribution Detection
1 Introduction
---------------
For many machine learning systems, being able to detect data that is anomalous or significantly different from that used in training can be critical to maintaining safe and reliable predictions. This is particularly important for dee... |
bc7c3b7c-fe6c-4373-8475-b73b3daa2ece | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rethinking Education
Problems
Problems have bottlenecks. To solve problems, you need to overcome each bottleneck. If you fail to overcome just one bottleneck, the problem will go unsolved, and your effort will have been fruitless.
In reality, it’s a little bit more complicated than that. Some bottlenecks are tighter ... |
39cbc6b4-cac0-41c7-a6f9-4d2ce1606bb0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI risk: the five minute pitch
I did a talk at the 25th Oxford Geek night, in which I had five minutes to present the dangers of AI. The talk is now online. Though it doesn't contain anything people at Less Wrong would find new, I feel it does a reasonable job at pitching some of the arguments in a very brief format. |
8c273698-e24c-40ee-98af-892d967a05ea | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | GPT-4
GPT-4 Technical Report
OpenAI
Abstract
We report the development of GPT-4, a large-scale, multimodal model which can
accept image and text inputs and produce text outputs. While less capable than
humans in many real-world scenarios, GPT-4 exhibits human-level performance
on various professional and academic ben... |
f04ea662-c30c-4273-91b2-938a9b023b4b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sane Thinking about Mental Problems
|
be003cfb-3a75-4f54-b33d-e007efefe551 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Underspecification Presents Challenges for Credibility in Modern Machine Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
In many applications of machine learning (ML), a trained model is required to not only predict well in the training domain, but also encode some essential structure of the underlying system.
In some doma... |
c43fcc8c-51ae-4bf2-b54d-0561b4ee676e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Agent-aware state estimation for autonomous vehicles.
I Introduction
---------------
Autonomous systems often operate in environments where the behavior of agents is governed by both their *local state* and a *shared global state* which encapsulates important aspects of the environment. Reliable estimation of the g... |
e712fc24-f752-4913-b7f8-bbd240c02be2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Better Whistle Synth
A couple years ago I got really excited about the idea of controlling a synthesizer by whistling. I came back to this recently, figured out a much better algorithm, and it's much more musical now!
(Short version: go try my new program, in your browser!)
In my original version, I counted zero cro... |
21409505-75c7-4a8c-a06b-c7245da49121 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rereading Atlas Shrugged
This post will not attempt to avoid spoilers, and will be much more comprehensible if you've read the book or are familiar with its basics, but I also hope it'll be somewhat understandable if you haven't read the book at all; to aid with that I'll put summaries after all the names.
I first re... |
c19973a8-49b0-469c-b350-b54897b4d882 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Adding and removing complexity from models
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/adding-and-removing-complexity-from-models/
----------------------------------------
I had a really interesting conversation with a guy about modelling information. what I did when talking to him is in one case insist that his model be... |
37e05f21-f874-4a3c-8742-43a314bf9885 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Consciousness As Recursive Reflections
by Daniel Böttger.
This was posted on ACX a few months ago but came up in a podcast of the Bayesian Conspiracy, recently. |
5a04df57-636a-4b44-8e71-9901d8588c4e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #100]: What might go wrong if you learn a reward function while acting
**Newsletter #100 (!!)**
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular,... |
6afe04d5-1e25-435c-9d9d-4d7e4eecc21d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Less Wrong NH Inaugural Meet-up
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong NH Inaugural Meet-up
WHEN: 14 July 2015 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 269 Pearl St., Manchester, NH
(Posting this for a friend because she still can't comment)
The first NH meet-up is this Tuesday, 7/14, in Manchester, NH at 7 pm a... |
b1f73014-1c42-438f-9727-a1a3e7deb2a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Epiphany addiction"
LW doesn't seem to have a discussion of the article Epiphany Addiction, by Chris at succeedsocially. First paragraph:
> "Epiphany Addiction" is an informal little term I came up with to describe a process that I've observed happen to people who try to work on their personal issues. How it works i... |
b708e7d2-308e-4011-9a4d-34070747d73b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Plastination is maturing and needs funding, says Hanson
> Though cryonics has been practiced for forty years, its techniques have improved only slowly; its few customers can only induce a tiny research effort. The much larger brain research community, in contrast, has been rapidly improving their ways to do fast cheap... |
feec7a3d-64c2-4195-96ec-d27deb7efd66 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should Rationalists Tip at Restaurants?
Related to: Robin Hanson on Freakonomics
DISCLAIMER: This is an exploration of a theoretical economics problem. This is not advice. I have not made up my mind. Please do not cite this post as support for your plans to indulge in mayhem or selfishness.
Suppose you want to lea... |
3b2d7922-aff7-4b35-98a5-f1ca0f06bec0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Christiano and Yudkowsky on AI predictions and human intelligence
This is a transcript of a conversation between Paul Christiano and Eliezer Yudkowsky, with comments by Rohin Shah, Beth Barnes, Richard Ngo, and Holden Karnofsky, continuing the [Late 2021 MIRI Conversations](https://intelligence.org/late-2021-miri-conv... |
e91981a5-09e2-48ea-9bf9-8aa8880d098c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 11/3/22: Asking Forgiveness
It was a quiet week on the Covid front. That is a very good thing.
If anything, the theme of this week was looking backwards to how things were handled. The CDC is (at least half-heartedly) looking to fix things. There was an offer of ‘pandemic amnesty’ by someone who thinks they don... |
1ad040ac-9d17-4a1f-8a89-94b59da5ed03 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | a cognitively hazardous idea
a cognitively hazardous idea
----------------------------
**caution: this post is a cognitively hazardous idea which may cause you to change your behavior and regret having learned about said idea. please don't proceed without informed consent, and please don't tell people about cognitiv... |
c8fb1e76-f3d2-4a7e-b963-569f7bbed6a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
This is a thread for displaying your timeline until human-level AGI.
Every answer to this post should be a forecast. In this case, a forecast showing your AI timeline.
For example, here are Alex Irpan’s AGI timelines.
The green distribution is his prediction from 2015, and the orang... |
097a8f51-8d52-4825-985c-d13e0baff537 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Formal Methods for the Informal Engineer: Workshop Recommendations
Program Committee
-----------------
| | |
| --- | --- |
| Gopal Sarma | Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard |
| James Koppel | MIT CSAIL |
| Gregory Malecha | BedRock Systems |
| Patrick Schultz | Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard |
| Eric Drexl... |
a77c12ed-0561-4eb6-8b1f-a643ed2adcb1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Risk Intro 2: Solving The Problem
This marks the second half of our overview of the AI alignment problem. In the first half, we outlined the case for misaligned AI as a significant risk to humanity, first by looking at past progress in machine learning and extrapolating to what the future could bring, and second by... |
caf70081-59a4-4389-b7f7-44cc916133e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stupidity as a mental illness
It's great to make people more aware of bad mental habits and encourage better ones, as many people have done on LessWrong. The way we deal with weak thinking is, however, like how people dealt with depression before the development of effective anti-depressants:
* Clinical depression ... |
46c79212-84fb-4f89-8a6a-66c8cfe167f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | South Bay Meetup 12/9
At 3806 Williams Rd, San Jose, CA 95117, starting at 2:00. Let me know if you plan to come so we will know how many we are feeding. Details:http://www.daviddfriedman.com/SSC%20Meetups%20announcement.html |
17106503-8733-4fb0-ba36-6f739a499caf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | For those in the Stanford AI-class
I posted an obligatory FAI question for the Thrun/Norvig office hours. You can vote here https://www.ai-class.com/sforum/?modSeries=19a660&modTopic=45&modSubmission=5cabd7. Only top questions will be answered :)
ETA: it's now the top question in the category by a nice margin! |
040797c0-78ce-4834-94f6-66353701a13c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Blocking users
I noticed this recent Wiki edit:
http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/User:AllisonGibbons
which says:
This user is currently blocked. The latest block log entry is provided below for reference:
* 13:19, 8 February 2011 Vladimir Nesov (Talk | contribs) blocked AllisonGibbons (Talk | contribs) with an expi... |
174cc735-4787-4c4a-92f5-79f421a23cbc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Don't you think RLHF solves outer alignment?
I think the RLHF solves 80% of the problems of outer alignment, and I expect it to be part of the solution.
But :
- RLHF doesn't fully solve the difficult problems, which are beyond human supervision, i.e. the problems where even humans don't know what is the right way to ... |
8abac8ac-14c9-4660-9a94-f21dc75bcf6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Embedded Agents are Quines
lsusr
Is entropy objective or subjective?
DaemonicSigil
In one sense subjective, if you believe in subjective probabilities. i.e. if we use Shannon's entropy formula, −∑ipilogpi then the formula itself is objective, but Bayesians would have subjective probabilities pi, which might vary from... |
15df3124-0ac6-4586-a652-a31014ed20df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Futility of Status and Signalling
I
In The Futility of Emergence Eliezer names a current theory which is as flawed as the theories of flogiston and vitalism. Theories that give mysterious answers which just appears to explain the phenomena while not actually resolving the confusion.
I think I can name another one... |
25322eed-c240-46df-a6db-4f9676c35d4f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : London diaspora meetup: weird foods - 24/01/2016
Discussion article for the meetup : London diaspora meetup: weird foods - 24/01/2016
WHEN: 24 January 2016 02:00:00PM (+0000)
WHERE: Shakespeare's Head, 64-68 Kingsway, London WC2B 6AH
Last time, we had around 20 people show up, and had to split over two tab... |
ebaed5b1-389e-42e2-a501-ebd3f30c978b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Keylogger virus strikes American UAV control center
At Wired:
> “We keep wiping it off, and it keeps coming back,” says a source familiar with the network infection, one of three that told Danger Room about the virus. “We think it’s benign. But we just don’t know.”
>
> Military network security specialists aren’t su... |
132bc94f-c0eb-4a2f-b426-48f3627d13bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self awareness - why is it discussed as so profound?
Something I find rather odd - why is self-awareness usually discussed as something profoundly mysterious and advanced?
People would generally agree that a dog can be aware of food in the bowl, if the dog has seen or smelled it, or can be unaware of a food bowl othe... |
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