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72242a05-8758-46dc-b3c3-9ebdda967220 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In the presence of disinformation, collective epistemology requires local modeling
In Inadequacy and Modesty, Eliezer describes modest epistemology:
> How likely is it that an entire country—one of the world’s most advanced countries—would forego trillions of dollars of real economic growth because their monetary con... |
6bb991c1-93c8-4f2d-9679-3c62c80805a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | central planning is intractable (polynomial, but n is large)
Three Toed Sloth has a nice exposition on the difficulties of optimizing an economy, including the best explanation of convex optimization ever:
> If plan A calls for 10,000 diapers and 2,000 towels, and plan B calls for 2,000 diapers and 10,000 towels, we ... |
ab45464d-dbc4-4cdc-8bf7-241076233ccd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Creating The Simple Math of Everything
Eliezer once proposed an Idea for a book, The Simple Math of Everything. The basic idea is to compile articles on the basic mathematics of a wide variety of fields, but nothing too complicated.
> Not Jacobean matrices for frequency-dependent gene selection; just Haldane's calcu... |
1a7a3248-3496-4151-87b2-b0f6c942a801 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Boston MA: Optimal Philanthropy Meetup (July 6th)
Julia and I have done a lot of thinking and writing about how to do the most good in the world [1] [2] but we don't have things all figured out. We'd love to talk to other people interested in optimal philanthropy, so if you're in the Boston area on Friday July 6th we... |
5e434b4d-4d88-4cd3-836a-cba1bd600060 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Schizophrenia as a deficiency in long-range cortex-to-cortex communication
(Written in a hurry. I was almost going to title this “My poorly-researched pet theory of schizophrenia”. Hoping for feedback and pointers to relevant prior literature. I am very far from a schizophrenia expert. Really. I cannot emphasize this ... |
a5afb94d-176d-4c38-af3e-37ba63aad7dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Firming Up Not-Lying Around Its Edge-Cases Is Less Broadly Useful Than One Might Initially Think
Reply to: Meta-Honesty: Firming Up Honesty Around Its Edge-Cases
Eliezer Yudkowsky, listing advantages of a "wizard's oath" ethical code of "Don't say things that are literally false", writes—
> Repeatedly asking yoursel... |
397bbf0e-c179-4d2e-9413-676f10d118f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Preference Inversion
Sometimes the preferences people report or even try to demonstrate are better modeled as a political strategy and response to coercion, than as an honest report of intrinsic preferences. Modeling this correctly is important if you want to try to efficiently satisfy others' intrinsic preferences, o... |
28106ea1-2667-4d98-bfd2-305b4eeba0d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Economics of Bitcoin
I haven't read/listened to them, but I thought these might be interesting to the local bitcoin users:
Eli Dourado (GMU econ PhD candidate) on the economics of cryptocurrency.
Econtalk podcast - Russ Roberts (GMU econ prof) with Gavin Andresen, Principal of the BitCoin Virtual Currency Project on... |
2843c1f6-1108-41b9-b0d6-3a0a7cdc692b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The man and the tool
The man and the first tools
150,000 years ago there were Homo Sapiens very similar to us in Africa. However, they did not begin to dominate the world until about 70,000 years ago. Between 150,000 and 70,000 years ago, Homo Sapiens was just another animal that struggled to survive, a weak and clums... |
35624a6e-a63a-435b-94c0-a2814583b53f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Towards formalizing universality
(*[Cross-posted at ai-alignment.com](https://ai-alignment.com/towards-formalizing-universality-409ab893a456)*)
The scalability of [iterated amplification](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1810.08575.pdf) or [debate](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.00899) seems to depend on whether large enough teams ... |
bcb6fda8-384d-46cf-80ad-02caa17b4a61 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | SURF: Semi-supervised Reward Learning with Data Augmentation for Feedback-efficient Preference-based Reinforcement Learning.
1 Introduction
---------------
Reward function plays a crucial role in reinforcement learning (RL) to convey complex objectives to agents. For various applications, where we can design an inf... |
29cfb01e-4a0e-4bd7-806b-3b52059fbf9d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Safetywashing
In southern California there’s a two-acre butterfly preserve owned by the oil company Chevron. They spend little to maintain it, but many millions on television advertisements featuring it as evidence of their environmental stewardship.[[1]](#fn9m6ozmbv1h)
Environmentalists have a word for behavior like... |
e67bab06-8adb-4cd0-a103-2476df68ce25 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #96: o3 But Not Yet For Thee
The year in models certainly finished off with a bang.
In this penultimate week, we get o3, which purports to give us vastly more efficient performance than o1, and also to allow us to choose to spend vastly more compute if we want a superior answer.
o3 is a big deal, making big gains... |
9e933c20-7111-4f06-a685-7144154d2a18 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gearing Up for Long Timelines in a Hard World
Tl;dr: My current best plan for technical alignment is to work on: (1) Improving our gears-level understanding of the internals & their dynamics of advanced AI systems, and (2) work on pathways decorrelated with progress in the first direction - likely in the form of pivot... |
8cbe9d63-e7db-490c-ba61-d8e6bdd210e4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | EIS III: Broad Critiques of Interpretability Research
Part 3 of 12 in the [Engineer’s Interpretability Sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/a6ne2ve5uturEEQK7).
Right now, interpretability is a major subfield in the machine learning research community. As mentioned in EIS I, there is so much work in interpretabi... |
c10ed41d-f4e1-4552-a725-638da0293615 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Risks from AI persuasion
A case for why persuasive AI might pose risks somewhat distinct from the normal power-seeking alignment failure scenarios.
Where I'm currently at: I feel moderately confident that powerful persuasion is useful to think about for understanding AI x-risk, but unsure whether it's best regarded ... |
501062c6-aaa9-4841-9662-295f6ff775a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Blog Post Day (Unofficial)
TL;DR: You are invited to join us online on Saturday the 29th, to write that blog post you've been thinking about writing but never got around to. Comment if you accept this invitation, so I can gauge interest.
The Problem:
Like me, you are too scared and/or lazy to write up this idea you'... |
20d4d83d-0ca4-4077-bc8d-5c77ccc8d380 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Software Architecture for Next-Generation AI Planning Systems
1 Introduction
---------------
Artificial Intelligence (AI) planning computationally solves the problem of finding a course of action that achieve some user goal. The planning problem is usually based on a model that describes the world in a given domain... |
0bcde9c8-a73c-4724-9faf-2451beb8cf69 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AXRP Episode 38.5 - Adrià Garriga-Alonso on Detecting AI Scheming
YouTube link
Suppose we’re worried about AIs engaging in long-term plans that they don’t tell us about. If we were to peek inside their brains, what should we look for to check whether this was happening? In this episode Adrià Garriga-Alonso talks abou... |
90f76f09-6b53-45b7-92b7-9a1a2baced3b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Embracing complexity when developing and evaluating AI responsibly
Complex Intervention Development and Evaluation Framework: A Blueprint for Ethical and Responsible AI Development and Evaluation
The rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) presents significant opportunities, but it also raises serious conc... |
633b2189-cfad-4ec4-9e0e-f28114613ef1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My (Mis)Adventures With Algorithmic Machine Learning
Introduction
This was originally posted here.
I've been researching, for quite some time, the prospect of machine learning on a wider variety of data types than normally considered; things other than tables of numbers and categories. In particular, I want to do ML ... |
2768844f-f488-4a2a-a851-f0c1de9bf3db | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Performance guarantees in classical learning theory and infra-Bayesianism
Introduction
============
I wrote this post during my [SERI MATS](https://www.serimats.org/) scholarship, explaining the part of [infra-Bayesianism](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zB4f7QqKhBHa5b37a/introduction-to-the-infra-bayesianism-sequenc... |
f21ba697-4c34-4aad-a865-e344ac9c051b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Steampunk Aesthetic
Epistemic Status: Poetry. More confident about Linux than I have a right to be.
Last year, some friends wanted to buy a boat to live on, because the Bay Area is hella expensive. They acquired a tugboat, in Alaska. I was among a few people who helped them pilot it south.
I currently do not hav... |
1bae99bc-f607-4313-a9d9-aeae14c40a45 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, September 22-28, 2014
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page be... |
54c865ac-62fa-484d-9229-20d901c04a52 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | New report: “Non-omniscience, probabilistic inference, and metamathematics”
[](https://intelligence.org/files/Non-Omniscience.pdf)UC Berkeley student and MIRI research associate Paul Christiano has released a new report: “[Non-o... |
5885f147-b9cc-4416-a6cb-93e73fbe5496 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup report: London LW paranoid debating session
A photo from a (different) recent LW London meetup
Cross-posted from my blog.
I wasn't going to bother writing this up, but then I remembered it's important to publish negative results.
LessWrong London played a few rounds of paranoid debating at our meetup on 02/... |
5eeb9a7e-8d49-4f43-a06d-966848f6d8f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rational Humanist Music
Something that's bothered me a lot lately is a lack of good music that evokes the kind of emotion that spiritually-inspired music does, but whose subject matter is something I actually believe in. Most songs that attempt to do this suffer from "too literal syndrome," wordily talking about... |
91335557-31fa-4f1c-a57c-69e145495546 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Analyzing Punishment as Preventation
Continued from https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NvNmDWEpr8FSicgYN/reasons-for-punishment
In the previous post we listed a number of reasons given for punishing people. The first was as preventation.
> In some cases punishment can prevent the person being able to commit the crime i... |
2329a235-7470-457c-a6e5-983653365c91 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In memory of Leonard Nimoy, most famous for playing the (straw) rationalist Spock, what are your top 3 ST:TOS episodes with him?
Hopefully at least one or two would show a virtue of non-straw rationality.
Episode list
|
6a9bf994-bea9-4300-9ffc-f1bb9376b17d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | RFC: Philosophical Conservatism in AI Alignment Research
I've been operating under the influence of an idea I call philosophical conservatism when thinking about AI alignment. I am in the process of summarizing some of the specific stances I take and why I take them because I believe others would better serve the proj... |
2c17390f-168e-41af-951f-2edc170c05fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Knocking Down My AI Optimist Strawman
I recently posted my model of an optimistic view of AI, asserting that I disagree with every sentence of it. I thought I might as well also describe my objections to those sentences:
"The rapid progress spearheaded by OpenAI is clearly leading to artificial intelligence that wil... |
5e0e7753-f7c3-4a80-b385-724ae133a8d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | CollAction history and lessons learned
Hi all,
@Yoav Ravid mentioned that it might be interesting/useful to get a “retrospective” post on CollAction.org (an assurance-contract website or what we call a ‘crowdacting’ website) that me and a few friends started a while ago. I’ll share a little bit about the history and ... |
852618c0-d95a-4350-87a6-5a2a61e8bdb1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | New paper: “Risks from learned optimization”
[](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820)Evan Hubinger, Chris van Merwijk, Vladimir Mikulik, Joar Skalse, and Scott Garrabrant have a... |
3f63072e-bb49-4c63-a847-718133eeef80 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #40: A Vision from Vitalik
It has been brutal out there for someone on my beat. Everyone extremely hostile, even more than usual. Extreme positions taken, asserted as if obviously true. Not symmetrically, but from all sides nonetheless. Constant assertions of what happened in the last two weeks that are, as far as ... |
21e1acaf-b53e-47ae-9dad-d3aeebbd3410 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #117]: How neural nets would fare under the TEVV framework
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsl... |
7c5096a7-35a9-4e2f-8f1a-2c18db697b00 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Atlanta LessWrong: Games Night
Discussion article for the meetup : Atlanta LessWrong: Games Night
WHEN: 24 August 2013 06:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 2388 Lawrenceville Hwy. Apt L. Decatur, GA 30033
Come be social and enjoy the fun and games with your fellow rationalists!
If you've not yet attended, this is an... |
034d916c-de69-473b-b84e-c7d732bef700 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What strange and ancient things might we find beneath the ice?
> If I am not for myself, who will be for me?
> If I am only for myself, what am I?
> If not now, when?
> -Hillel
> Nature is not good, only proto-good.
> -Paolo Soleri
Epistemic status: literally a dream
I awaken.
I am in the desert, alone.
I see th... |
663e39fc-7661-4dbe-8f05-3cf8481fff0a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | How likely is it that governments will play a significant role? What role would be desirable, if any?
Currently, private AI labs are greatly ahead of any known governmental efforts in the production of advanced AI, so it looks unlikely that a government will be involved directly in the creation of the first AGI.
Neve... |
980c8c83-4e73-4516-8cf0-54b738455907 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Exploring the Evolution and Migration of Different Layer Embedding in LLMs
[Edit on 17th Mar] After conducting experiments on more data points (5000 texts) on the Pile dataset (more sample sources), we are confident that the experimental results described earlier are reliable. Therefore, we have opened the code.
Rece... |
f9b6a76d-0b4f-408a-b914-6d42c21cd44d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reason Poetry: f(me.0)
The following is a poem I wrote today. I've been considering poetry that I write of this nature to be of a Reason/Cyberpunk/Transhuman sort of genre. Feedback, including feedback on if there is a place for poetry on this site, would be appreciated.
I forever wish to change from who I am t... |
fba701c4-65d7-4a66-87de-877fc762aa2b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sam Altman: "Planning for AGI and beyond"
(OpenAI releases a blog post detailing their AGI roadmap. I'm copying the text below, though see the linked blog post for better formatted version)
----------------------------------------
Our mission is to ensure that artificial general intelligence—AI systems that are gene... |
d05cf768-65c6-4599-89d3-8f9dfaa220f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Peano arithmetic trying to kill us? Do we care?
When do we know that a model is safe? I want to get a better grip on the basics of inner alignment. And by "basics" I mean the most fundamental basics, the most obvious conditions of safety.
For example: how do we know that Peano arithmetic is safe?
Context
When w... |
8e849afe-5c94-4204-9cbe-c0f506cfef06 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Fundamentals of Global Priorities Research in Economics Syllabus
This is a **6-9 session syllabus on the fundamentals of global priorities research in economics.**
The purpose is to help **economics** **students and researchers interested in GPR get a big picture view of the field and come up with research ideas.**
... |
9da74c76-76db-4aa1-a5a0-87f3487500c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against Against Boredom
I'm trying to clarify some feelings I had after reading the post Utopic Nightmares. Specifically, this bit:
> But in a future world where advancing technology’s returns on the human condition stop compensating for a state less than perfect hedonism, we can imagine editing boredom out of our l... |
16613997-ac5d-47a9-8c2b-f09cb0fb92fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Uncontrollable: A Surprisingly Good Introduction to AI Risk
I recently read Darren McKee's book "Uncontrollable: The Threat of Artificial Superintelligence and the Race to Save the World".
I recommend this book as the best current introduction to AI risk for people with limited AI background.
It prompted me to updat... |
4c9bb60d-019c-4412-9ce5-4e7f6aa6f181 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Announcing AI Alignment Awards: $100k research contests about goal misgeneralization & corrigibility
*We’re grateful to our advisors Nate Soares, John Wentworth, Richard Ngo, Lauro Langosco, and Amy Labenz. We're also grateful to Ajeya Cotra and Thomas Larsen for their feedback on the contests.*
**TLDR:** [**AI Align... |
f0489993-6e10-4be9-aef9-0b5e608e7eaa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | SUDT: A toy decision theory for updateless anthropics
The best approach I know for thinking about anthropic problems is Wei Dai's [Updateless Decision Theory](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Updateless_decision_theory) (UDT). We aren't yet able to solve all problems that we'd like to—for example, when it comes to game ... |
e2030c6c-82be-4c7f-b321-9e1a4b53b820 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is the 10% Giving What We Can Pledge Core to EA's Reputation?
Introduction
> I don't think the 10% norm forms a major part of EA's public perception, so I don't believe tweaking it would make any difference. - RobertJones
>
> 10% effective donations has brand recognition and is a nice round number, as you point out. ... |
524cffcf-0603-4f50-8fb7-5b37bd9d3b9f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Less Wrong!, part 2?
Welcome to Less Wrong! has over 1300 comments, but the display only offers 500 newest or 500 oldest, which makes it difficult if anyone wants to look at the whole thing. At a minimum, I recommend a second Welcome! post, but it might also be good to break up the first one (Welcome 1a an... |
6e7195b9-0948-4422-8e7e-76d979e81dda | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Mechanism Design for AI Safety - Reading Group Curriculum
The Mechanism Design for AI Safety (MDAIS) reading group, announced [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/YmvBu7fuuYEr3hhnh/announcing-mechanism-design-for-ai-safety-reading-group), is currently in it's eighth of twelve weeks. I'm very excited by the... |
eff3f8b8-4bfa-40d9-b70f-0e60d470ccf2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Set image dimensions using markdown
When embedding an image using the markdown editor, is it possible to specify the image dimensions? It seems that both of these do not work:
Inline HTML:
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/25Magmb.png" width="123" height="123">
Some markdown variant I found on stackoverflow:
 for a canonical formulation of the AI Doom Argument. After some back and forth with EY, DC came up with a [suggestion](https://l.facebook.com/l... |
41079b89-7e6f-4770-aa3c-ccbeb1deca5c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Successful language model evals" by Jason Wei
> It’s easier to mess up an eval than to make a good one. Most of the non-successful evals make at least one mistake.
>
> 1. If an eval doesn’t have enough examples, it will be noisy and a bad UI for researchers. ... It’s good to have at least 1,000 examples for your ev... |
a5aa7350-be94-417b-9185-db320330f094 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Applications of Chaos: Saying No (with Hastings Greer)
Previously Alex Altair and I published a post on the applications of chaos theory, which found a few successes but mostly overhyped dead ends. Luckily the comments came through, providing me with an entirely different type of application: knowing you can’t, and ex... |
2829e5f9-c2c4-4dbf-9fd9-084643e57346 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why do you (not) use a pseudonym on LessWrong?
Especially as your main account
Edit: I edited the question so that people also feel free to answer the opposite question |
a30c2222-9b29-46c2-815c-bfc0cc5c07a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are we there yet?
> How good of an idea do the people on this website have in regards to predicting an AGI apocalypse?
I get the impression that a lot of people seem to be very certain that it will happen relatively soon and I think I've figured out a way to test it. The spreadsheet for the data would look someth... |
a29d9d45-7c88-41c4-ab5e-7c2d764c9d40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Redistributive Taxation Justifiable? Part 1: Do the Rich Deserve their Wealth?
The statement “taxation is theft” feels, in the literal sense, at least sort of true. If you do not pay your taxes, after a few strongly worded letters, the IRS (or equivalent government agency) will send armed men to take your money by ... |
29c7a129-be59-4c09-aadc-c951b4980769 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : First Meetup in Cologne (Köln)
Discussion article for the meetup : First Meetup in Cologne (Köln)
WHEN: 10 November 2013 03:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Starbucks Coffee, An der Hahnepooz 8 50674 Cologne
ETA: The meetup is going to take place on November, 10th, 15:00. I'll be there. In case you don't find the p... |
f2f0a640-d967-4e17-8f6d-321a53af3339 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | San Francisco Meetup every Tues 5/10, 7 pm
Tuesday, May 10th at 7:00 PMGreen Papaya825 Mission Street (4th and Mission)San Francisco, CA 94103
Welcome back to the next installment of the newest Bay Area Less Wrong meetup: San Francisco! By popular demand, the third meeting of the San Francisco group will be this co... |
5c75b19a-8c8a-4cc9-9da5-3584c6907896 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Opinion Article Against Measuring Impact
A strange opinion article in The Guardian today: it is not entirely clear whether the authors object to a concern with effectiveness, or just think that "assessing the short-term impacts of micro-projects" is somehow misguided (and if so, why that is). |
64caa75b-b059-47dd-86ff-c3940c22823e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The case for Doing Something Else (if Alignment is doomed)
(Related to What an Actually Pessimistic Containment Strategy Looks Like)
It seems to me like there are several approaches with an outside chance of preventing doom from AGI. Here are four:
1. Convince a significant chunk of the field to work on safety rath... |
774c0f3e-7343-4394-993f-4c3de31b4aef | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Direction of Fit
This concept has recently become a core part of my toolkit for thinking about the world, and I find it helps explain a lot of things that previously felt confusing to me. Here I explain how I understand “direction of fit,” and give some examples of where I find the concept can be useful.
Handshake R... |
17447553-83ac-4f1e-82ad-f62a839276f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Price of Integrity
Related Posts: Prices or Bindings?
On the evening of August 14th, 2006 a pair of Fox News journalists, Steve Centanni and Olaf Wiig were seized by Islamic militants while on assignment in Gaza City. Nothing was heard of them for nine days until a group calling themselves the Holy Jihad Brigade... |
e0987dd0-de61-4c82-becc-5600087460ca | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | FLI report: Policymaking in the Pause
> **this policy brief provides policymakers with concrete recommendations for how governments can manage AI risks.**
>
>
> **Policy recommendations:**
> 1. Mandate robust third-party auditing and certification.
> 2. Regulate access to computational power.
> 3. Establi... |
b669b3a4-5403-4539-b24a-acbd8421ba12 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | JFK was not assassinated: prior probability zero events
A lot of my work involves tweaking the utility or probability of an agent to make it believe - or act as if it believed - impossible or almost impossible events. But we have to be careful about this; an agent that believes the impossible may not be so different f... |
4eaa52e3-1bc1-4525-88ee-c6a89d84639a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The map of the risks of aliens
Stephen Hawking famously said that aliens are one of the main risks to human existence. In this map I will try to show all rational ways how aliens could result in human extinction. Paradoxically, even if aliens don’t exist, we may be even in bigger danger.
1.No aliens exist in our p... |
0143a51c-1d46-49bc-8512-441f67fe83bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Everything I ever needed to know, I learned from World of Warcraft: Incentives and rewards
This is the second in a series of posts about lessons from my experiences in World of Warcraft. I’ve been talking about this stuff for a long time—in forum comments, in IRC conversations, etc.—and this series is my attempt to ma... |
e45205f2-8602-44a1-a816-62def5cdcfe3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shared Cache is Going Away
Browsers historically have had a single HTTP Cache. This meant that if www.a.example and www.b.example both used cdn.example/jquery-1.2.1.js then JQuery would only be downloaded once. Since it's the same resource regardless of which site initiates the download, a single shared cache is more ... |
22bbe39c-e837-49f6-a94a-86b3a8608f5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Box Role Plays
This page is to centralize discussion for the AI Box Role Plays I will be doing as the AI.
Rules are as here. In accordance with "Regardless of the result, neither party shall ever reveal anything of what goes on within the AI-Box experiment except the outcome. Exceptions to this rule may occur on... |
d238e337-602c-4136-8fd2-82f722e62837 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What I've been doing instead of writing
I’ve been too busy with work to write much recently, but in lieu of that, here’s a batch of links to other stuff I’ve been doing elsewhere.
The thing I’m most excited about:
* Wave raises $200m from Sequoia, Stripe, Founders Fund and Ribbit at a $1.7b valuation. It’ll fund fa... |
2a9f6bf2-f35c-4e3b-b6bd-5ffb2583b925 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne Social Meetup: Boardgames In The Pub
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne Social Meetup: Boardgames In The Pub
WHEN: 15 August 2014 06:30:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: Alchemist's Refuge, 328 Little Lonsdale St, Melbourne VIC 3000
IMPORTANT: CHANGE OF VENUE IMPORTANT: Due to a date mixup the trivi... |
493ff984-52c6-451c-9ea9-49085acab969 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "From Robyn Dawes’s Rational Choice in an Uncertain World.1 Bolding added. Norman R. F. Maier noted that when a group faces a problem, the natural tendency of its members is to propose possible solutions as they begin to discuss the problem. Consequently, the group interaction focuses on the merits and problems of the ... |
89e5a5eb-f2b7-449f-85ab-cc29ad5cb70e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does it become easier, or harder, for the world to coordinate around not building AGI as time goes on?
(Or, is coordination easier in a long timeline?)
It seems like it would be good if the world could coordinate to not build AGI. That is, at some point in the future, when some number of teams will have the technical... |
8ea807e3-a10d-47df-8244-71c531e3d64b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [DISC] Are Values Robust?
Epistemic Status
----------------
[Discussion question](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zhhYwM7gk8LZsDzxj/dragongod-s-shortform?commentId=vYqEZxYZwEnsiSKJ6).
Related Posts
-------------
See also:
* [Complexity of Value](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/complexity-of-value)
* [Value is Fra... |
e3a1dc98-177a-4fce-b120-0080a82aa099 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Walking Dead
Information asymmetry is a funny thing.
A while ago I created a question asking "Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?". Currently the odds according to the Metaculus prediction are that there's an 80% chance Starship will land ... |
a3354da5-e7fa-4ad3-929a-949915903796 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Review] Edge of Tomorrow (2014)
This post contains spoilers for Edge of Tomorrow (2014) and All You Need is Kill (2004).
Spoiler-Free tl;dr
Watch Edge of Tomorrow up until the scene at the dam. Skip the rest of the film and read All You Need is Kill instead.
Spoilerific Review
Edge of tomorrow is Groundhog Day (1... |
8edeec28-b3e6-4f26-b218-2c48a96a3767 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Continuity in Uploading
I don't acknowledge an upload as "me" in any meaningful sense of the term; if I copied my brain to a computer and then my body was destroyed, I still think of that as death and would try to avoid it.
A thought struck me a few minutes ago that seems like it might get around that, though. Suppo... |
3a5bec56-5111-4fb0-9937-aff0e05dfecd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to turn money into AI safety?
Related: Suppose $1 billion is given to AI Safety. How should it be spent? , EA is vetting-constrained, What to do with people?
I
I have heard through the grapevine that we seem to be constrained - there's money that donors and organizations might be happy to spend on AI safety work... |
c4ad8e47-8fd8-4fe4-a8c5-0ebded310612 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Climate change and food security
A Guardian article on the impact of climate change on food security. This is worrying (albeit perhaps not a global catastrophic (or existential) risk). It has the potential to wipe out the gains made against extreme poverty in the last few decades.
Should we be so pessimistic? ... |
b7a66e45-ed6c-43b7-9275-a4299aaf49a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Risk and Opportunity: A Strategic Analysis
Suppose you buy the argument that humanity faces both the risk of AI-caused extinction and the opportunity to shape an AI-built utopia. What should we do about that? As Wei Dai asks, "In what direction should we nudge the future, to maximize the chances and impact of a pos... |
92220b9a-b8e2-465a-9360-91c8ffbef886 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Endo-, Dia-, Para-, and Ecto-systemic novelty
[Metadata: crossposted from https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2023/01/endo-dia-para-and-ecto-systemic-novelty.html. First completed January 10, 2023. This essay is more like research notes than exposition, so context may be missing, the use of terms may change across essays, and... |
b6e83a38-d5a0-473d-ae7d-cace2dd73666 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mental Context for Model Theory
I'm reviewing the books on the MIRI course list. After my first four book reviews I took a week off, followed up on some dangling questions, and upkept other side projects. Then I dove into Model Theory, by Chang and Keisler.
It has been three weeks. I have gained a decent foundation i... |
bece90c7-dc55-46ce-916a-01f43da06e59 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | After Alignment — Dialogue between RogerDearnaley and Seth Herd
RogerDearnaley
Hi Seth! So, what did you want to discuss?
Seth Herd
I'd like to primarily discuss your AI, Alignment and Ethics sequence. You made a number of points that I think LWers will be interested in. I'll try to primarily act as an interviewer, a... |
66424b93-a58c-411c-9dfa-5e91b9ea82c6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Untangling Braids with Multi-agent Q-Learning
I Introduction
---------------
Braids are mathematical objects from low-dimensional topology which can be successfully encoded with sequences of letters and, therefore, studied using algebra or, as we do in this study, using some computer-scientific approach. A braid on... |
d141544c-1864-4e81-a42b-45f84af2e81f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety 101 : Reward Misspecification
Overview
1. Reinforcement Learning: The chapter starts with a reminder of some reinforcement learning concepts. This includes a quick dive into the concept of rewards and reward functions. This section lays the groundwork for explaining why reward design is extremely important.... |
3b09e1eb-fee7-4e65-a074-e6d931b79081 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on August 26th. The following week's summary is here.
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Baltimore Area Weekly Meetup: 28 August 2016 08:00PM
* European Community Weekend: 02 September 2016 03:35PM
The remaining meetups take place i... |
9c7e2b71-45b4-4ada-a068-11f94ae45f6c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meta-Doomsday Argument: Uncertainty About the Validity of the Probabilistic Prediction of the End of the World
Abstract: Four main forms of Doomsday Argument (DA) exist—Gott’s DA, Carter’s DA, Grace’s DA and Universal DA. All four forms use different probabilistic logic to predict that the end of the human civilizatio... |
6bcaa2b6-e112-48a5-9df5-65f301aafd32 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | LLMs May Find It Hard to FOOM
*Epistemic status: some of the technological progress parts of this I've been thinking about for many years, other more LLM-specific parts I have been thinking about for months or days.*
LLM are trained as [simulators](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vJFdjigzmcXMhNTsx/simulators) for tok... |
93cd63e6-a15c-479e-8d0e-a4c7e7800c07 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Calling for Student Submissions: AI Safety Distillation Contest
At EA UC [Berkeley](https://eaberkeley.com/), we’re launching an ongoing series of contests called the Artificial Intelligence Misalignment Solutions (AIMS) series. This second contest, the [Distillation Contest](https://eaberkeley.com/aims-distillation),... |
4c9abb7b-0f35-4209-8128-5ec28ffc46e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | TSR #6: Strength and Weakness
**This is part of a series of posts where I call out some ideas from the latest edition of The Strategic Review (written by Sebastian Marshall), and give some prompts and questions that I think people might find useful to answer. I include a summary of the most recent edition, but it's no... |
f1998882-72bc-4f20-955a-7ba46768c3f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hypothesis about how social stuff works and arises
EDIT, 2022:
this post is still a reasonable starting point, but I need to post a revised version that emphasizes preventing dominance outside of play. All forms of dominance must be prevented, if society is to heal from our errors. These days I speak of human communic... |
bda133c1-272e-46fa-8d97-f7227b6d9c9c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Air Quality and Cognition
Overview
Air pollution and concerns about its effects continue to rise globally. However, policymakers and environmental regulators have neglected the effects of air pollution on cognitive functioning. A growing body of research points to the risk of exposure to high levels of pollution. It’s... |
af1ef55a-a072-4e81-8e77-e3d9b802d457 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Alignment Research Engineer Accelerator (ARENA): call for applicants
(Edited, to now include a section specifically for FAQs about the virtual program.)
TL;DR
Apply here for the third iteration of ARENA (Jan 8th - Feb 2nd)!
Introduction
We are excited to announce the third iteration of ARENA (Alignment R... |
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