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0cba9463-0c72-4571-86b4-ce979483d55d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quantum Bayesianism
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032cf5a6-c027-44a4-988d-1c0f66c7b75c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Additive and Multiplicative Subagents
This is the ninth post in the [Cartesian frames](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames) sequence. Here, we refine our notion of subagent into additive and multiplicative subagents. As usual, we will give many equivalent definitions.
T... |
0b5c7731-aace-4a86-a1be-a6a81a7b8c95 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bridging the Intention-Action Gap (aka Akrasia)
|
50a0e6fb-195f-4f08-a82f-8224084bcc43 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why small phenomenons are relevant to morality
Follow-up to this post
One thing that seems important to me is that optionality implies a sort of high-level game theory :
It is good that we are in a complex environment with many phenomenons even when it seems that those phenomenons aren't directly relevant (to pre... |
8fca5baa-7d22-4d46-a9e9-e1d14a8107c3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A Model-based Approach to AI Existential Risk
Introduction
============
Polarisation hampers cooperation and progress towards understanding whether future AI poses an existential risk to humanity and how to reduce the risks of catastrophic outcomes. It is exceptionally challenging to pin down what these risks are and... |
31842696-fa8e-4d3c-a135-7e7b7b58cbef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Successful Communication Across a Wide Inferential Distance
From Kwame Anthony Appiah's Cosmopolitanism: Ethics in a World of Strangers:
> There’s an oft-told anecdote about a medical missionary in a remote place, who watches, in horror, as people give untreated well water to their babies. The children regularly g... |
451fb2d1-67f4-4822-88cb-77885049aa48 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Quantifying Differences in Reward Functions
1 Introduction
---------------
Reinforcement learning (RL) has reached or surpassed human performance in many domains with clearly defined reward functions, such as games [[20](#bib.bib20); [15](#bib.bib15); [23](#bib.bib23)] and narrowly scoped robotic manipulation tasks... |
3480ce4a-3452-4944-8d3f-4ab62b8b671c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | An Intuitive Explanation of Solomonoff Induction
This is the completed article that Luke wrote the [first half of](/lw/8nr/intuitive_explanation_of_solomonoff_induction/). My thanks go to the following for reading, editing, and commenting; Luke Muehlhauser, Louie Helm, Benjamin Noble, and Francelle Wax.
![](http://r... |
3cfbbfb8-4f28-46e0-8d91-7fbd683ab851 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Incorporating Mechanism Design Into Decision Theory
In the previous post, we looked at one way of handling externalities: letting other agents pay you to shift your decision. And we also considered the technique of aggregating those offers into an auction. This technique of "implementing a mechanism to handle an incen... |
e7b985f6-3ce8-49f3-82f7-930cddacb8f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kidney Trade: A Dialectic
Related: GiveWell's Increasing the Supply of Organs for Transplantation in the U.S.
(Content warning: organs, organ trade, transplantation. Help me flesh this out! My intention is to present the arguments I've seen in a way that is, at a minimum, non-boring. In particular, moral intuitions c... |
cfb3ed0a-c300-4b46-a1bd-dae5e44c1cbe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The blind god's computer language
http://crisper.livejournal.com/316634.html#cutid1
> They have no compiler, only an accretor that gloms additional code onto the existing binary. I use the word binary loosely; it is not uncommon for them to "improve" fundamentally flawed data structures by moving to a larger base not... |
eaa5cd72-f1f2-4f36-8206-af41983964c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Theories of impact for Science of Deep Learning
I’d like to thank Jérémy Scheurer and Ethan Perez for discussions about the post.
I recently published a post on the Science of Deep Learning. There have been many people before me who had similar ideas and I don’t claim to have invented this agenda, I’m merely excited ... |
28398487-4e62-4aed-a19f-2205cc0bc9f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Idols of the Mind Pt. 1 (Novum Organum Book 1: 38–52)
This is the fourth post in the Novum Organum sequence. For context, see the sequence introduction.
We have used Francis Bacon's Novum Organum in the version presented at www.earlymoderntexts.com. Translated by and copyright to Jonathan Bennett. Prepared for LessWr... |
6c719027-2e20-475b-97f7-8eaae4a26566 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How often do series C startups fail to exit?
How often do series C startups really fail? By fail I mean never have an acquisition or IPO. Internet says 80% (see https://medium.com/journal-of-empirical-entrepreneurship/dissecting-startup-failure-by-stage-34bb70354a36) but this seems very high to me.
Most Series C comp... |
7d3a5a75-3844-4e63-9c47-7737d3ca6c61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Brussels - Hope & Self-improvement
Discussion article for the meetup : Brussels - Hope & Self-improvement
WHEN: 13 December 2014 01:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Rue des Alexiens 55 1000 Bruxelles
t's Christmas season, so I thought of doing something about rational giving, but we've already talked your ears off a... |
8ef630d2-809d-45a9-9c1c-df0d95deedfe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Communications in Hard Mode (My new job at MIRI)
Six months ago, I was a high school English teacher.
I wasn’t looking to change careers, even after nineteen sometimes-difficult years. I was good at it. I enjoyed it. After long experimentation, I had found ways to cut through the nonsense and provide real value to my... |
8cd7fc58-3021-4271-8409-362d8ebfd7c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Proposal for increasing instrumental rationality value of the LessWrong community
There were some concerns here (http://lesswrong.com/lw/2po/selfimprovement_or_shiny_distraction_why_less/) regarding value of LessWrong community from the perspective of instrumental rationality.
In the discussion on the relevant topic... |
74fb9b61-f5d5-4b88-a386-8909c7644423 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Problem of the Criterion is NOT an Open Problem
Not long ago, I added a tag to LessWrong for the problem of the criterion. Shortly after that its text received an edit claiming it is an open problem. However, I think the problem of the criterion is not really an open problem. Here's why.
Here on LessWrong we say ... |
b2505b11-fe29-476e-a53a-767294ad72fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Media Publication Governed by Prediction Markets
The post describes a tool that allows communities to own a decentralised media publication (a shared Twitter account in this case). In contrast to other shared media publications like subreddits, LessWrong or Hacker News, this tool sorts content using Prediction Markets... |
6f8be575-35fc-40e3-81f1-c0ea01544adc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hedonium's semantic problem
If this argument is a re-tread of something already existing in the philosophical literature, please let me know.
I don't like Searle's Chinese Room Argument. Not really because it's wrong. But mainly because it takes an interesting and valid philosophical insight/intuition and then twists... |
d54ea51f-d863-45fd-8d1f-bc1f0ea5ae01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ontological Crisis in Humans
Imagine a robot that was designed to find and collect spare change around its owner's house. It had a world model where macroscopic everyday objects are ontologically primitive and ruled by high-school-like physics and (for humans and their pets) rudimentary psychology and animal behavior.... |
0e076f20-d5a2-41aa-8229-ceec096e148c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Chris Olah on working at top AI labs without an undergrad degree
*This is a linkpost for* [*#108 - Chris Olah on working at top AI labs without an undergrad degree*](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/chris-olah-unconventional-career-path/)*. You can listen to the episode on that page, or by subscribing to the '*... |
f9efcf12-0467-4d78-a962-1a14a6fe602e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Uncountability: Intuitive Intro
[Collections ](https://arbital.com/p/3jz) which have less than or the same [number of items](https://arbital.com/p/4w5) than the collection of all [natural numbers](https://arbital.com/p/-45h) are called *countable*, while larger collections (like the set of all [real numbers](https://a... |
d37de2e3-2f11-46ec-9bfe-4612d88ce2af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Palantir's AI models
Palantir published marketing material for their offering of AI for defense purposes. There's a video of how a military commander could order a military strike on an enemy tank with the help of LLMs.
One of the features that Palantir advertises is:
> Agents
>
> Define LLM agents to pursue spec... |
f3c0ae14-2123-4f7b-a81d-fc4dbddd402a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Let Values Drift
I occasionally run across lines of reasoning that depend on or favor the position that value drift should be avoided.
I find odd the idea of value drift, let alone the idea that value drift is bad. My intuition is that value drift is good if anything since it represents an update of one's values base... |
7736e927-add5-41c5-8bc6-1b4d0211d5c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A non-mystical explanation of insight meditation and the three characteristics of existence: introduction and preamble
Introduction
Insight meditation, enlightenment, what’s that all about?
The sequence of posts starting from this one is my personal attempt at answering that question. It grew out of me being annoyed ... |
81b3ed63-0f2a-463c-8112-d7d9fa21eef9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What We Talk About When We Talk About Objective Functions
tl; dr: We can better understand common objective functions (reward, prediction, fitness, control) as all being related to a singular, overarching objective.
Reward? Prediction? Fitness?
In their 2021 paper Reward is enough, DeepMind researchers argue that "i... |
c65272db-ff56-421c-9b13-430564cd09ff | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Prime element of a ring
summary(Technical): Let $(R, +, \times)$ be a [ring](https://arbital.com/p/3gq) which is an [integral domain](https://arbital.com/p/5md). We say $p \in R$ is *prime* if, whenever $p \mid ab$, it is the case that either $p \mid a$ or $p \mid b$ (or both).
An element of an [https://arbital.com/p... |
8399c17f-7623-4d86-82d6-cadce8e7cd39 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open and Welcome Thread – August 2021
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are invi... |
0c071055-1155-436b-9d2b-35691b92a332 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Poem: There are no beautiful surfaces without a terrible depth.
The poem is from someone whose online pseudonym is atiguhya padma. I'll quote the first verse, the refrain, and the beginning of the second verse to give you enough flavor to decide if you want to follow the link. There are about 9 verses total.
... |
c89ceaee-0ffa-4192-876c-df77d0924072 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Short, Extreme, Forgotten Torture vs Death
Turns out Pascal's mugger is real, and as would be expected of someone who does Pascal's muggings, he's a jerk and likes forcing people to make impossible decisions. Also, his threats are discovered to be truthful and credible. He decides he's sick of mugging after collecting... |
9c89410b-beb1-4cd4-81c0-29d0e390f3ab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Short Note on UDT
In my last post, I stumbled across some ideas which I thought were original, but which were already contained in UDT. I suspect that was because these ideas haven’t been given much emphasis in any of the articles I’ve read about UDT, so I wanted to highlight them here.
We begin with some definitio... |
5ee736f8-43e9-4a46-a4d3-a1866b91fceb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | May 2018 Newsletter
#### Updates
* New research write-ups and discussions: [Resource-Limited Reflective Oracles](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=1793); [Computing An Exact Quantilal Policy](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=1794)
* New at AI Impacts: [Promising Research Projects](https://aiimpacts.org/promis... |
a5d7f9cf-b4b7-49a9-b208-fccb54855968 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Training for Faster Adversarial Robustness Verification via Inducing ReLU Stability
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have recently achieved widespread success in image classification [alexnet](#bib.bib18) , face and speech recognition ([deepface,](#bib.bib28) ; [speechrecognition,](#bib.bi... |
77009c4f-2bb2-4182-9c8f-ba25499dd5e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Madison: Reading Group, Seeing with Fresh Eyes
Discussion article for the meetup : Madison: Reading Group, Seeing with Fresh Eyes
WHEN: 16 September 2012 07:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 1053 Rutledge St #3, Madison, WI
At this meetup, we'll discuss the Seeing with Fresh Eyes sequence. Roughly speaking, this sequ... |
adc9be7c-6407-41f4-8fbe-763d8222fe5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In Strategic Time, Open-Source Games Are Loopy
For many situations we'd like to analyze, information flow is more important than chronological order. When game theorists say that two players choose their actions simultaneously, they mean that they each make their choice without knowing the action chosen by the other p... |
3f2be9e6-02f7-4db6-b47b-a549caa3322b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Optimizing Workouts for Intellectual Performance
So this year I've stopped working out, and my grades have improved drastically, but at the cost of losing muscle mass and gaining fat, and becoming physically slower and lazier just as I became faster and more active intellectually. One effect I especially noticed was t... |
178313af-fa50-45f9-a072-d174e35edc29 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Discussion: weighting inside view versus outside view on extinction events
Articles covering the ideas of inside view and outside view:
Beware the Inside View (by Robin Hanson)
Outside View LessWrong wiki article
Article discussing the weighting of inside view and outside view:
The World is Mad (by ozymandias)
... |
6e89e8e3-2c93-47b9-b4dd-70f604c39ee8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups: Berkeley, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Vancouver, Washington DC
There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in:
* Vancouver Politics Meetup: 12 May 2012 01:00PM
* Washington DC meetup: 12 May 2012 08:34PM
* Dallas - Fort Worth Less Wrong Meetup 5/13/12: 13 May 2012 01:00PM
* Pittsburgh: ... |
2326171f-3557-43c0-bd99-cdd572bd6978 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Question about Test-sets and Bayesian machine learning
What does “test-set performance” represent in Bayesian machine learning? In Bayesian ML:
* we have some data D={(y1,x1),…,(ym,xm)}
* we assume a model M (this includes any assumptions we make about the prior densities)
* and we compute the posterior predictiv... |
da88b29c-0782-45a8-8341-05197aeea24c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Human Values and AGI Risk | William James
This is a Copy-Paste of a paper I wrote for my school's philosophy conference. Please review this reframing of the alignment problem and consider including it in the larger discussion.
Classically understood AGI systems could pose an existential risk to humanity if they were... |
62c5058c-9ba6-49bb-8902-d31881c23e61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What kinds of algorithms do multi-human imitators learn?
epistemic status: Speculation. The actual proposals are idealized, not meant to be exactly right. We have thought about this for less than an hour.
----------------------------------------
In this earlier post I stated a speculative hypothesis about the algori... |
aed0fb2a-38b8-4c91-9d39-8a1d0cedc5f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What‘s in your list of unsolved problems in AI alignment?
Question for my fellow alignment researchers out there, do you have a list of unsolved problems in AI alignment? I'm thinking of creating an "alignment mosaic" of the questions we need to resolve and slowly filling it in with insights from papers/posts.
I have... |
751fe4b0-9ee3-4e7c-b74b-544e6542f6e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Secular interpretations of core perennialist claims
After the release of Ben Pace's extended interview with me about my views on religion, I felt inspired to publish more of my thinking about religion in a format that's more detailed, compact, and organized. This post is the second publication in my series of intended... |
a5d05f64-b4c5-4b00-8c9c-bf56ee5b7d07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Hacker Learns to Trust
This is a linkpost for some interesting discussions of info security norms in AI. I threw the post below together in 2 hours, just to have a bunch of quotes and links for people, and to have the context in one place for a discussion here on LW (makes it easier for common knowledge of what th... |
43c2ea22-0165-4842-bea6-961657220f0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Socialism in large organizations
I'm a programmer who's into startups. For my first startup, a site that provided student super in depth student reviews of colleges, I remember asking what people thought. I'd get all of these really encouraging responses. "Oh, that's so cool! I wish that existed when I was applying! T... |
553efd41-3fb5-4bf3-968e-2301e23fb2ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chess Analyst "solves" King's Gambit
Edit: it was unfortunately a prank. I definitely checked the date of the article (which is dated Apr. 2), before posting on it. Kind of mean to make an April Fool's prank after April Fool's. I didn't realize I'd have a chance to practice what I preach so soon.
I guess I need to ju... |
b10ddf09-53d8-49e2-a453-a8d98ebcfe09 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What we talk about when we talk about maximising utility
tl;dr: “Utility” is used on LW to mean what people want, but that’s not what's morally relevant. Utilitarians aren't trying to maximise this sort of utility, but rather "well-being".
Epistemic status: probably obvious to some, but this particular framing wasn't... |
d9a455d2-391c-49b3-9dc4-6ba63773d721 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some abstract, non-technical reasons to be non-maximally-pessimistic about AI alignment
I basically agree with Eliezer’s picture of things in the AGI interventions post.
But I’ve seen some readers rounding off Eliezer’s ‘the situation looks very dire’-ish statements to ‘the situation is hopeless’, and ‘solving alignm... |
f892d6e9-82ec-44f6-9fff-d851f1b3bd6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Less Wrong NH Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong NH Meetup
WHEN: 09 August 2016 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 269 Pearl St Manchester NH 03104
The Less Wrong NH meetup is Tuesday, 8/9, in Manchester, NH at 7 pm at a private residence. Light refreshments will be provided.
Have you read Ratio... |
0cd238fd-83ef-4e1b-8521-e3005ce5f0b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Define Your Learning Goal: Competence Or Broad Knowledge
> Summary: If you're trying to learn something, get clear on whether you're
>
> 1. Building competence: Getting very fast and reliable on tasks that are used for a well-defined project.
> 2. Building broad knowledge: Learning just enough about a huge number o... |
9ae39375-566f-4092-b152-1d246e6e3de0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | How Do AI Timelines Affect Giving Now vs. Later?
How do AI timelines affect the urgency of working on AI safety?
It seems plausible that, if artificial general intelligence (AGI) will arrive soon, then we need to spend quickly on AI safety research. And if AGI is still a way off, we can spend more slowly. Are these ... |
4ba0d907-2851-47d4-9544-d93974322f6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Danes wish to know more about the coronavirus
Denmark has the 4th highest per capita number of [confirmed] infections worldwide after Italy, Norway, South Korea. This is from a friend I originally made through LW Copenhagen:
"Thanks for the excellent coverage on MR.
I lead a small team of tech workers in Copenha... |
47630476-cab7-49dc-be53-74213ac07fc7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What do you imagine, when you imagine "taking over the world"?
... AI "taking over the world", some human or group of humans "taking over the world", whatever. |
af09b51a-705e-48a0-8556-bff092178688 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ethics of Jury nullification and TDT?
I've been sort of banging my head on this issue (I have jury duty next week (first time)).
The obvious possibility is what if I get put on a drug use case? The obvious injustices of the anti-drug laws are well known, and I know of the concept of nullification, but I'm bouncing... |
64d66abb-0d7b-4ad0-80c3-8e150ecc717e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflections on Less Online
Meta: This post turned out longer, slower, and less well-written than I hoped. I don’t see any similar posts in a quick search, though, so I'm posting it anyway. I’ve tried to front-load feedback that might be useful to the organizers, and put more personal stuff towards the end. For context... |
f2cd4156-36fd-46db-92d4-6004b7b6f065 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EA as offsetting
Scott made a good post about vegetarianism.
But the overall line of reasoning sounds to me like:
> “There’s a pretty good case that one is morally compelled to pay for people in the developing world to have shoes, because it looks pretty clear now that people in the developing world have feet that c... |
4d74317b-6ec4-4ce0-9341-4af093ce0362 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Cooperation, Avoidance, and Indifference: Alternate Futures for Misaligned AGI
Concerns about “super-intelligence” loom large. The worry is that artificial general intelligence (AGI), once developed, might quickly reach a point at which (1) it becomes aware of its own capabilities and (2) it deploys those capabilitie... |
1ebc0bc3-1c87-4639-a402-40f3d21a3637 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Trio Walks, Duo Talks
Epistemic Status: Exploration
Related: The Engineer and the Diplomat
Having a great conversation is hard, but valuable. The structure a conversation is built around determines how it will go. How should we engineer more valuable conversations?
At the retreat, it was suggested that we go on Tri... |
be14e919-4135-41b2-97c6-4a15a124e8b4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Accuracy of arguments that are seen as ridiculous and intuitively false but don't have good counter-arguments
I think one of the biggest reasons I am worried about AI doom is that there doesn't seem to be very good counter-arguments. Most of them are just bad, and the ones that aren't a bit vague (usually something al... |
7d53ddcb-d245-4c5f-bc10-facc41fd58fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review - Other Minds: The Octopus, the Sea, and the Deep Origins of Consciousness
In this post:
* A true-false test about octopuses
* What is it like to be an octopus?
* An exercise in updating on surprising facts
* Experiments related to animal suffering and consciousness
* The evolution of aging
* Should... |
57abbc61-9098-499e-9c4b-b886da0823db | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization
1 Introduction
---------------
Stochastic gradient-based optimization is of core practical importance in many fields of science and engineering. Many problems in these fields can be cast as the optimization of some scalar parameterized objective function requiring maximiza... |
324fcc14-0e2e-4a62-9cdf-2fe282062d45 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Questions for further investigation of AI diffusion
This post is one part of the sequence Understanding the diffusion of large language models. As context for this post, I strongly recommend reading at least the 5-minute summary of the sequence.
This post lists questions about AI diffusion that I think would be wort... |
d33bb26a-2517-48bb-88b4-e8e06d1cad08 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Towards Characterizing Divergence in Deep Q-Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep Q-Learning (DQL), a family of reinforcement learning algorithms that includes Deep Q-Network (DQN) (Mnih et al., [2013](#bib.bib27), [2015](#bib.bib28)) and its continuous-action variants (Lillicrap et al., [2016](#bib.bib24); ... |
6fe4e890-7acf-49e2-8e64-46a907997bc2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alex Tabarrok advocates for crowdfunding systems with *Refund Bonuses*. I think this might be a natural occurrence of a money pump against Causal Decision Theory pledgers
Essentially, his version of Kickstarter has Refund Bonuses. His rationale is that there's little benefit to investigate or promote a probably-failin... |
ee7b1baa-500f-44de-8783-0302e1f8f3e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paper in Science: Managing extreme AI risks amid rapid progress
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adn0117
Authors:
Yoshua Bengio, Geoffrey Hinton, Andrew Yao, Dawn Song, Pieter Abbeel, Yuval Noah Harari, Ya-Qin Zhang, Lan Xue, Shai Shalev-Shwartz, Gillian Hadfield, Jeff Clune, Tegan Maharaj, Frank Hutter, ... |
a9ce4337-85ee-4d0a-a053-3b215eb9fc08 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Wrong and The Ultraviolet
|
80f6c2a5-8a36-4918-aa3c-db8df486a6b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mechanisms too simple for humans to design
Cross-posted from Telescopic Turnip
Disclaimer: This article is about living organisms, and how they are sculpted by evolution. Any use of mathematics is metaphorical, not literal – it's only there to give a sense of scale. Apologies to all the people who got correctly offen... |
6b45074a-9b0a-480b-91eb-91c52db11376 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Towards Automated Circuit Discovery
for Mechanistic Interpretability
1 Introduction
---------------
Figure 1: Automatically discovering circuits with ACDC. Left: the computational graph of GPT-2 Small with a recovered circuit for the IOI task in red. Right: the rec... |
d0393481-f9cc-4f46-9c83-2ea8870472b2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are recent LLMs better at reasoning or better at memorizing?
TLDR; By carefully designing a reasoning benchmark that counteracts memorization skills in LLMs, LingOly-TOO (L2) Benchmark challenges frontier models with unseen questions and answers and makes the case that LLMs are not consistent reasoning machines yet.
... |
664abbca-b3d8-497b-a7fa-ec0765aa97e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress links and tweets, 2023-02-22
Announcements
* Introducing Speculative Technologies, a private DARPA-like research organization. See also coverage in Forbes and Ben Reinhardt’s AMA on the Progress Forum
* I’ll be speaking on how to write about progress at the Thesis Festival this weekend
* Day One policy mem... |
aa0d2697-2428-406a-ae3e-9856cbf4aea2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Markus Schmidt on Risks from Novel Biotechnologies
 [Dr. Markus Schmidt](http://www.markusschmidt.eu/) is founder and team leader of [Biofaction](http://www.biofaction.com/), a research and science communication company i... |
9d46efe7-5267-45f3-a2fa-47d275d9887c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Recent advances in Natural Language Processing—Some Woolly speculations (2019 essay on semantics and language models)
This essay was written back in 2019, not too long after GPT-2 came out. Although parts of it are dated- mostly the list of new achievements in Natural Language Processing- on the whole, it’s held up re... |
980d9f6f-855e-4b58-8b93-ea82feca4da0 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3487
Highlights Learning Complex Goals with Iterated Amplification (Paul Christiano et al) : This blog post and the accompanying paper introduces iterated amplification, focusing on how it can be used to define a training signal for tasks that humans cannot perform or evaluate, such as designing a transit syst... |
317e4126-5498-4ff8-9d58-65d043e02bce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Histograms are to CDFs as calibration plots are to...
As you know, histograms are decent visualizations for PDFs with lots of samples...
10k predictions, 20 bins
...but if there are only a few samples, the histogram-binning choices can matter a lot:
10 predictions, 4 binssame 10 predictions, 7 bins
The binning (a... |
814ded84-9ce3-43cc-b1e3-a67ae80c0653 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Question Of Perception
The below text is an excerpt of this article.
----------------------------------------
Once during an Indian coconut harvest, a farmer, tired from his day’s work of chopping down fruit, slumped down in the shade of a tree to enjoy a coconut, and upon splitting it open, found inside a messa... |
38836b72-de0d-4f73-a177-5ccef4b7298a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | An Attempt at Preference Uncertainty Using VNM
(This is a (possibly perpetual) draft of some work that we (I) did at the Vancouver meetup. Thanks to my meetup buddies for letting me use their brains as supplementary computational substrate. Sorry about how ugly the LaTeX is; is there a way to make this all look a bit ... |
a0d28d63-ea1a-4701-9d71-89dd4670b2af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI threatens to orchestrate sustainable social reform
This post originally asked for feedback on the linked paper before I would present it at an AAMAS workshop. The presentation went very well. Someone suggested I share it with the LessWrong community, so I'm still seeking your feedback (now with additional assurance... |
8c5fdb27-9808-4a0c-b38e-e9f011bcf7c9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The Existential Risk of Speciesist Bias in AI
**TL;DR:**Current AI systems often exhibit speciesism, a bias where intelligence is often used to justify harmful treatment of less intelligent species. As AI progresses and may surpass human intelligence by mid-century, there's a risk that such systems could treat us as w... |
3d8e6f47-3e8e-4959-90c7-58584ed67851 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | December 2016 Media Thread
This is the monthly thread for posting media of various types that you've found that you enjoy. Post what you're reading, listening to, watching, and your opinion of it. Post recommendations to blogs. Post whatever media you feel like discussing! To see previous recommendations, check out th... |
9d3949e3-46a0-4ecf-9d29-f53f32d1df35 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Problem Of Apostasy
So I have been checking laws around the world regarding Apostasy. And I have found extremely troubling data on the approach Muslims take to dealing with apostates. In most cases, publicly stating that you do not, in fact, love Big Brother (specifically, that you do not believe in God, the Proph... |
8495e4f5-84a0-40a4-839e-752ae3677ca9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Don't align agents to evaluations of plans
*Another stab at explaining* [*Don't design agents which exploit adversarial inputs*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jFCK9JRLwkoJX4aJA/don-t-design-agents-which-exploit-adversarial-inputs)*. This is not the follow-up post mentioned therein. That post will come next.*
### Mo... |
554d0674-3915-40b0-a05c-8772cf65a731 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | COVID-19: The Illusion of Stability
New infections have been declining at an almost adequate pace (10% per week?) in most parts of the US, and probably the rest of the developed world.
The overall reported new cases look more discouraging, for two reasons.
One reason is the increase in testing. I estimate that two m... |
630a2943-a5b0-4933-8ff2-d9f28dfac84f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Checking Kurzweil's track record
Predictions are cheap and easy; verification is hard, essential, and rare. For things like AI, we seem to be restricted to nothing but expert predictions - but expert predictions on AI are not very good, either in theory or in practice. If we are some experts who stand out, we would r... |
21c99c1d-aefd-4455-aece-51c4bb4224eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The proper response to mistakes that have harmed others?
I have a tendency to feel very guilty when I have harmed others, especially when the harm was quite large. And I do think I've been legitimately quite hurtful and harmful to a number of people over the course of my life.
Some of my guilt has persisted for years... |
e58c006f-837a-442c-a0fd-cb0ae3501fc6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reformative Hypocrisy, and Paying Close Enough Attention to Selectively Reward It.
People often attack frontier AI labs for "hypocrisy" when the labs admit publicly that AI is an extinction threat to humanity. Often these attacks ignore the difference between various kinds of hypocrisy, some of which are good, includ... |
acba7468-9377-4d86-a060-a557c6c0f5b6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The prototypical catastrophic AI action is getting root access to its datacenter
(I think Carl Shulman came up with the “hacking the SSH server” example, thanks to him for that. Thanks to Ryan Greenblatt, Jenny Nitishinskaya, and Ajeya Cotra for comments.)
EDIT: I recommend reading my discussion with Oli in the comme... |
0916a0cf-4a67-47e7-b5bc-69145e1dd3bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Silence
This is part 26 of 30 in the Hammertime Sequence. Click here for the intro.
> 满罐子水不响，半罐子水响叮当
> The full can is silent, but the half-empty can makes a loud noise.
> ~ Chinese proverb.
Take a bottle or soda can and fill it halfway with water. Shake the can – the water will slosh around loudly.
Now, fill t... |
57e9f710-9b50-4d99-b727-58cc24c7d6ce | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Focus on the places where you feel shocked everyone’s dropping the ball
Writing down something I’ve found myself repeating in different conversations:
If you’re looking for ways to help with the whole “[the world looks pretty doomed](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a-list-of-lethalities)” ... |
1feeca78-ecb6-4b7f-9c80-230102536de1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Karate Kid and Realistic Expectations for Disagreement Resolution
There’s an essay that periodically feels deeply relevant to a situation:
> Someday I want to write a self-help book titled “F*k The Karate Kid: Why Life is So Much Harder Than We Think”.
>
> Look at any movie with a training montage: The main characte... |
a53d2190-f00f-47da-954a-dc68011cb3ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the real "danger zone" for food?
In my post about keeping dry food warm in school lunches I wrote that "The general rule is that hot food shouldn't be below 140F (60C) for more than two hours, because substantial bacteria can grow, and the closer it is to 100F (37C)the worse it is." Someone said they had heard... |
75475e4a-4cc8-4a33-ae05-499365a79526 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A simple device for indoor air management
Note: I wrote this in much more of a hurry than I normally write things, because I have noticed that I get way too meticulous, so it takes forever and I eventually give up. I hope it is still readable/useful!
Like many of us living in the Bay Area and other parts of the Weste... |
3c3aa1b3-d6e0-4d22-92c9-6b1a9b8c5a18 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Genetic magic
23andMe are now willing to guess where one’s ancestors are from at the level of counties. For instance, as well as thinking I have 19% Swedish ancestry, they now guess that it is primarily from Västra Götaland County. Which is in fact where my current Swedish relatives cluster. Their guesses in Ireland c... |
3a871ff2-3a08-4583-8083-8942c2c68817 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Creating Flashcards with LLMs
Summary
* Current LLMs, in particular GPT-4, are sufficiently capable to produce good non-trivial flashcards covering the contents of a given text.
* It is then possible to automate the flashcard creation process, making it far less time consuming to use Spaced Repetition techniques to ... |
feb2c0c7-f289-4dd0-836e-6d722714d38b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | $100 for the best article on efficient charity -- Submit your articles
Several people have written articles on efficient charity -- throwawayaccount_1 has an excellent article hidden away in a comment, as does waitingforgodel. Multifoliaterose promises to write an article "at some point soon" ..., and louie has actual... |
69c31ac0-0882-44d8-8633-c2a9eea6b8eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Words and Implications
> Professor Quirrell didn't care what your expression looked like, he cared which states of mind made it likely.
- HPMOR, Ch. 26
Words should not always be taken at face value. Presumably you know this. You probably have some heuristics about specific situations or claims in which a person’s w... |
d75f7238-23c1-4f0d-abcb-ffa7296e5efc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Use Your Identity Carefully
In Keep Your Identity Small, Paul Graham argues against associating yourself with labels (i.e. “libertarian,” “feminist,” “gamer,” “American”) because labels constrain what you’ll let yourself believe. It’s a wonderful essay that’s led me to make concrete changes in my life. That said, i... |
7a9873f1-4a0f-430d-bfd9-edfc1398df4f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Split Brain Does Not Lead to Split Consciousness
|
613a04ea-ddab-47ae-a02b-534db1ea5025 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | GPT-3 and the future of knowledge work
The most recent episode of the [Futurati Podcast](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRSov16ZLE2UgekgBTgnrjw/videos) is a big one. [We had Jungwon Byun and Andreas Stuhlmüller on](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lef5q1xPTU0) to talk about their startup '[Ought](https://ought.org/)'... |
627eba4d-1d8d-4b12-b1b0-039732997a03 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Recent updates to gwern.net (2017–2019)
> Previously: 2011/2012–2013/2013–2014/2014–2015/2015–2016/2016–2017.
"Iram indeed is gone with all its Rose, / And Jamshyd's Seven-ring'd Cup where no one knows; / But still the Vine her Ancient Ruby yields / And still a Garden by the Water blows."
An index of my recent writi... |
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