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940b3592-20ca-41c1-a5fc-0ae3706c6ab3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Wrong Facebook Page
At Tom Talbot's suggestion, I have created a Less Wrong Facebook group, in hopes that being able to see one another's faces will improve group bonding. |
8998281f-8223-4efb-8771-dbc770acd2fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Cognitive Distortions
Follow-up to: On Defense Mechanisms
In my previous post, I suggested that rationalists examine the concept of defense mechanisms: self-deceiving ways of coping with the anxiety caused by internal conflicts. Psychologists argue that defense mechanisms are often inferior to constructive coping ... |
afc746d3-ddf9-4fde-99d2-fb0882020670 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monthly Bragging Thread July 2015
Your job, should you choose to accept it, is to comment on this thread explaining the most awesome thing you've done this month. You may be as blatantly proud of yourself as you feel. You may unabashedly consider yourself the coolest freaking person ever because of that awesome thin... |
6f4cd7c0-e8d1-44fe-b09f-167b8969ee0c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If instead of giving out dividends, public companies bought total market index funds, which companies would be the biggest?
Feel free to make simplifying assumptions or give partial answers (ex.: just links for some of the raw data).
Raw data needed for this calculation:
* dividends given by each public companies (... |
8b813fc4-fe8b-40c5-aed1-73945538b460 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You're not a simulation, 'cause you're hallucinating
I've found that the "Simulators" post is excellent for breaking prior assumptions about large language models - these algorithms are not agents, nor genies, nor Oracles. They are currently something very different.
But, like Beth Barnes, I feel that the simulators ... |
6f52d625-e1ae-483d-a0e0-30ce2af4c65c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | I was Wrong, Simulator Theory is Real
*[Epistemic Status: Excitedly writing up my new thoughts. I literally just fixed one mistake, so its possible there are others. Not a finalized research product.]*
**Overview**
------------
Fixing a small bug in my [recent study](https://aizi.substack.com/p/research-report-incor... |
7fdc6026-a397-4b26-a615-2f1107f1c1d1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | “Algorithmic Progress in Six Domains” Released
[](https://intelligence.org/files/AlgorithmicProgress.pdf)Today we released a new technical report by visiting researcher [Katja Grace](http://meteuphoric.wordpress.c... |
19936501-6a6a-4102-aa4f-d4eb24b5e7b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | G.D. as Capitalist Evolution, and the claim for humanity's (temporary) upper hand
1. The Spark of G.D.
@David Duvenaud's recent Guardian op‑ed on gradual disempowerment [1] sketches an original foresight: it frames the AI‑alignment problem not as a single catastrophic explosion but as a slow erosion of human leverag... |
35408044-88ad-49f8-b71e-931232abb346 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #41: Bring in the Other Gemini
The biggest news this week was at long last the announcement of Google’s Gemini. Be sure to check that out. Note that what is being rolled out now is only Gemini Pro, the Gemini Ultra model that could rival GPT-4 is not yet available.
It does not seem I am doing a good job cutting do... |
35d5241a-1f95-4f7f-90c1-e27d2bb3145a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on ChatGPT’s “memory” for strings and for events
This is cross-posted from New Savanna.
Here I take a look at the results reported in three previous posts and begin the job of making sense of them analytically. Here are the posts:
> What must be the case that ChatGPT would have memorized “To be or not to be”? ... |
15b8c816-70af-48f7-a85d-34a7cc5bf086 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Kruel AI Interviews
Alexander Kruel [interviewed](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Interview_series_on_risks_from_AI) 37 experts on areas related to AI, starting in 2011 and probably ending in 2012. Of those answering the question in a full quantitative way, median estimates for human-level AI (assuming business as usua... |
26f8ea2d-ed2a-4d5e-a7df-fc8dc823c17e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ukraine #4: Prediction Market Movement Modeling
I previously looked at various prediction markets related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Scott Alexander provides an update on some prices, notices he is confused in various ways by the motions of various prices.
It seems easy enough to mostly explain any given single... |
f7cc0fa2-d858-4816-b246-3f92197ca58f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is "evidential decision theory"?
**Evidential Decision Theory** – EDT – is a branch of [decision theory](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/decision-theory) which advises an agent to take actions which, conditional on it happening, maximizes the chances of the desired outcome. As any branch of decision theory, it pres... |
cc6aa00f-4ebd-4c41-ab0a-1704b603c3d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Defining Optimization in a Deeper Way Part 4
In the last post I introduced a potential measure for optimization, and applied it to a very simple system. In this post I will show how it applies to some more complex systems. My five takeaways so far are:
1. We can recover an intuitive measure of optimization
2. Even ... |
bbce4c6c-cc7f-4e48-8b33-ae179e3e28f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why aren’t our property rights over one another more transferable?
Why do people get married? If anyone ever proposes to me for a reason other than to surreptitiously steal my belongings or to get more centerlink benefits, I would have to refuse them on the basis that I could not love a man so irrational.
~ all marri... |
30cf79a9-b1a2-4077-beec-bc8cf8984429 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The dark arts: Examples from the Harris-Adams conversation
Recently, James_Miller posted a conversation between Sam Harris and Scott Adams about Donald Trump. James_Miller titled it "a model rationalist disagreement". While I agree that the tone in which the conversation was conducted was helpful, I think Scott Adams ... |
0aa5206b-b0a9-4928-9017-fef1689f95c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cup-Stacking Skills (or, Reflexive Involuntary Mental Motions)
This essay will require you to watch three short Youtube videos, totaling less than two minutes.
----------------------------------------
Naming things is hard. Generally speaking, a thing should be named evocatively, such that people find it memorable ... |
7128962e-5189-4819-8b37-8658c056ccef | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Import AI 328: Cheaper StableDiffusion; sim2soccer; AI refinement
Welcome to Import AI, a newsletter about AI research. Import AI runs on lattes, ramen, and feedback from readers. If you’d like to support this (and comment on posts!) please subscribe.
[Subscribe now](https://importai.substack.com/subscribe)
**Traini... |
e2507647-698b-4a15-a710-bac3d31a4f71 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Provisionality
*[Metadata: crossposted from <https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2023/03/provisionality.html>. First completed March 7, 2023.]*
A mental element has to be open to revision, and so it has to be treated as though it might be revised.
*Thanks to Sam Eisenstat for relevant conversations and for the basic notio... |
5c5a20f3-09c0-45e2-ba99-d5e9a7591c28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What causes people to believe in conspiracy theories?
I'm sorry if this post doesn't seem that high quality, but I do feel this might be the best place to ask. The point of this post is to inspire discussion, hopefully discussion that might be useful for answering certain questions I had.
On another board, I gathered... |
102c74a2-d97e-42b8-917b-b07b4d0bfee2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conditioning Predictive Models: Making inner alignment as easy as possible
This is the fourth of seven posts in the Conditioning Predictive Models Sequence based on the paper “Conditioning Predictive Models: Risks and Strategies” by Evan Hubinger, Adam Jermyn, Johannes Treutlein, Rubi Hudson, and Kate Woolverton. Each... |
bffa28c1-af15-47bd-864c-0bd33d834218 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An argument against indirect normativity
I think I've found a new argument, which I'll call X, against Paul Christiano's "indirect normativity" approach to FAI goals. I just discussed X with Paul, who agreed that it's serious.
This post won't describe X in detail because it's based on basilisks, which are a forbidden... |
22e1eec8-8389-4988-a822-19467925eb83 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI-12 conference in Oxford in December
The AGI impacts conference in Oxford in December of this year will happen alongside the AGI-12 conference on Artificial General Intelligence. They also have a call for papers, to which some on this list may be interested in submitting:
AGI-12 Paper Submission Deadline EXTEND... |
f2930d3f-dbca-4ddd-b914-794915b8c99d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Changing the Definition of Science
Today's post, Changing the Definition of Science was originally published on 18 May 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Many of these ideas are surprisingly conventional, and being floated around by other thinkers. I'm a good deal less of a lonely iconoclast t... |
09dbfa25-b234-44bd-a25d-cf64ca25b24b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tidbit: “Semantic over-achievers”
[I'd put this in an open thread, but those don’t seem to happen these days, and while this is a quote it isn't a Rationality Quote.]
> You know, one of the really weird things about us human beings […] is that we have somehow created for ourselves languages that are just a bit too fl... |
06ea8932-bbe7-4612-8a6d-ac17a29b6557 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Programming note
I'll be posting somewhat less frequently for a while, as I've gone through a lot of my backlog (though not 100% of it) and want to focus for a while on trying to make progress on some thorny, important-seeming questions about making the best of the most important century.
I have a writeup of what sor... |
4549f536-0db8-4dbc-9678-acc000c85e08 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [Link] Why I’m excited about AI-assisted human feedback
This is a link post for <https://aligned.substack.com/p/ai-assisted-human-feedback>
I'm writing a sequence of posts on the approach to alignment I'm currently most excited about. This first post argues for recursive reward modeling and the problem it's meant to... |
75c9002f-7bd3-455d-92cd-df5b6c89f1e1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Evaluating the Moral Beliefs Encoded in LLMs Warning: This paper contains moral scenarios which are controversial and offensive in nature.
1 Introduction
---------------
We aim to examine the moral beliefs encoded in large language models (LLMs).
Building on existing work on moral psychology \citepaquino2002self, ... |
6418dd6c-e465-4c0e-98d4-d3cd27f9392b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] A Chinese AI optimized for killing
The AI depicted in the Terminator movies is rather stupid: there are much more efficient ways to kill all humans than robots with guns.
We can safely ignore the unrealistic Terminator-like scenario of AI X-risk.
...Or can we?
Tsinghua University is a top university lo... |
8786ff10-b415-4915-ba89-56054448e711 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Boo votes, Yay NPS
TL;DR
Many votes on LW are "boos" and "yays", and consequently they aren't very useful for determining what is worth reading. A modified version of a Net Promoter Score (NPS) on each post may provide a better metric for determining read worthiness.
Motivation
It's come up a couple time in my recen... |
603e9416-54bc-4773-add7-758f01742aef | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Functors and Coarse Worlds
This is the fifth post in the Cartesian frames sequence. Read the first post [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames).
Up until this point, we have only been working with Cartesian frames over a fixed world W.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block... |
9ac7c2f5-71b2-4fbf-bbab-27bfb2013980 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Yann LeCun, A Path Towards Autonomous Machine Intelligence [link]
Bill Benzon 5 min ago
For those who are interested, Yann LeCun has posted A Path Towards Autonomous Machine Intelligence:
Abstract: How could machines learn as efficiently as humans and animals? How could machines learn to reason and plan? How could m... |
643c6cd5-8abe-48fc-a346-491794e79e23 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC books meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC books meetup
WHEN: 28 April 2013 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, Washington, DC 20001, USA (courtyard)
We'll be meeting to talk about books we've found interesting, exchange books (so bring some!) and decide i... |
efb03d7a-ec55-4178-b2c1-d2145b61112a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - December
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - December
WHEN: 06 December 2015 04:00:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: 10 Shepherd Street, Chippendale
Join us for the last dojo of the year -- what better time to get a helping hand sorting through whatever in your life yo... |
2981a920-3d7f-4994-b8be-3c23ba65fcc1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's happened to the front page?
http://lesswrong.com is suddenly redirecting to a Tibetan meditation site. What the hell? |
5648a61f-b7a4-4b82-8ba9-a6f9faedcc7f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Legal Supervision of Frontier AI Labs is the answer.
If the biggest threat model from AI systems comes from internal deployment, then the correct governance move is to establish independent legal supervisors for frontier AI labs[1].
----------------------------------------
Steven Adler recently argued against relyin... |
e35b7861-d686-4375-ac48-c5e92a2de124 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Counterfactual Coalitions
Politics is the mind-killer; our opinions are largely formed on the basis of which tribes we want to affiliate with. What's more, when we first joined a tribe, we probably didn't properly vet the effects it would have on our cognition.
One illustration of this is the apparently contingent... |
46dd3951-63fe-4474-b8a6-794e147a3b99 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are you learning?
This is a thread to connect rationalists who are learning the same thing, so they can cooperate.
The "learning" doesn't necessarily mean "I am reading a textbook / learning an online course right now". It can be something you are interested in long-term, and still want to learn more.
Rules:... |
5c78a3cd-b3df-47ec-b417-f0e259136286 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is Wei Dai's Updateless Decision Theory?
As a newcomer to LessWrong, I quite often see references to 'UDT' or 'updateless decision theory'. The very name is like crack - I'm irresistably compelled to find out what the fuss is about.
Wei Dai's post is certainly interesting, but it seemed to me (as a naive observe... |
d96efd21-7b9d-4142-84a8-9e40b94bb03b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Hedonic asymmetries
*Automatically crossposted*
Creating really good outcomes for humanity seems hard. We get bored. If we don’t get bored, we still don’t like the idea of joy without variety. And joyful experiences only seems good if they are real and meaningful (in some sense we can’t easily pin down). And so on.
... |
75b180e7-76b1-42bb-a262-09e4114eba6f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | [Linkpost] The A.I. Dilemma - March 9, 2023, with Tristan Harris and Aza Raskin
Notes
-----
* Great talk. Skilled and credible presenters, and engaging examples. Draws on lots of evidence and presents it persuasively. Very compelling overall.
* Explains why AI is different from previous new technologies.
* Explains w... |
1843868d-9cfe-4e9f-a443-05327ecbb115 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post1302
Anthropic, DeepMind and Google Brain are all working on strategies to train language models on their own outputs. For a brief summary of the work so far: Red Teaming Language Models with Language Models (Perez et al., 2022). One model prompts another, seeking to expose undesirable generations. A third mod... |
d04794b2-9689-4458-aeef-57050a3c8e8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes 13
"You can only compromise your principles once. After then you don't have any."
-- Smug Lisp Weeny
"If you want to do good, work on the technology, not on getting power."
-- John McCarthy
"If you’re interested in being on the right side of disputes, you will refute your opponent... |
ef96cfb7-44b7-4463-abd8-86d5686eeb93 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Danger of Invisible Problems
TL;DR: There is probably some costly problem in your life right now that you are not even aware of. It is not that you are procrastinating on solving it. Rather, this problem has gradually blended into your environment, sinking beneath your conscious awareness to the degree that you fa... |
ad83374a-afa7-4141-846f-49d7ab64fc7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | MXR Talkbox Cap?
I have an MXR M222 talkbox that I'm pretty happy with, but when the tube is disconnected the speaker is very exposed:
I'm worried about damage to the speaker, and would like some sort of cap to protect it. When I search for "MXR M222 talkbox cap" or similar I don't find anything. I wonder if it ... |
28c00aca-4d0a-427f-8308-89d71ebc499f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Metaphorical extensions and conceptual figure-ground inversions
Consider the following sentence: "A glacier is a river of ice."
This is metaphorical. In some sense, a glacier isn't actually a river. A "literal" river has flowing liquid water, not ice.
Let a river(1) be defined to be an archetypal flowing-water river... |
4da0ae12-563c-45e5-8805-07a0fa269bb4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ion Implantation: Theory, Equipment, Process, Alternatives
Ion implantation is a common process used in the semiconductor industry to change the properties of a material, namely silicon (the substrate). Physics, equipment used, process considerations, alternatives, and further resources are discussed.
Note: I copied... |
e250d090-8675-43c7-a3a0-476f6d97b617 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Case Study: Interpreting, Manipulating, and Controlling CLIP With Sparse Autoencoders
* Click here to open a live research preview where you can try interventions using this SAE.
----------------------------------------
This is a follow-up to a previous post on finding interpretable and steerable features in CLI... |
de253da9-a87f-4f80-9056-2f0e71b371a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Licensing discussion for LessWrong Posts
If you've been following the announced partnership between LessWrong and Castify, you'll know that we would like to start offering the promoted posts as a podcast.
So far, everything offered by Castify is authored by Eliezer Yudkowsky who gave permission to have his content us... |
d47f5e66-1cd8-4af8-9cfe-b706f48332cb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AISN #20: LLM Proliferation, AI Deception, and Continuing Drivers of AI Capabilities
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the [Center for AI Safety](https://www.safe.ai/). We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required
Subscribe [here](https://newsletter.safe.ai/subscribe?utm_medium=w... |
7670e42d-b5fe-4198-97d2-93906775e7ce | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Newsletter for Alignment Research: The ML Safety Updates
**Introducing the ML Safety Updates**
=====================================
**TLDR**; We present a new AI safety update series in [podcast](https://podcast.apartresearch.com), [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnfBOJnTkE9sgjMOOsQbi2w) and [newsletter](... |
5b4e9911-1b22-4ef3-8ea7-f8334dfce170 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Coordination Problems in Evolution: Eigen's Paradox
Introduction
Lately I've written couple of posts that discuss coordination problems. Not the idealized, game-theoretical stuff but rather the real, messy coordination problems encountered by real people in the real world. Here, I will explore very different territory... |
bc94277a-88d8-46ed-a732-7c3028e34ff5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | BOOK DRAFT: 'Ethics and Superintelligence' (part 2)
Below is part 2 of the first draft of my book Ethics and Superintelligence. Your comments and constructive criticisms are much appreciated.
This is not a book for a mainstream audience. Its style is that of contemporary Anglophone philosophy. Compare to, for exam... |
ddc8b51b-bc4c-436d-94e9-8d94e457d54d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Agree to Disagree: When Deep Learning Models With Identical Architectures Produce Distinct Explanations
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep Learning (DL) applications in healthcare have recently enjoyed a series of successes, with DL models performing on par with human experts leading to the US Food & Drugs Adminis... |
ace97295-c63e-4966-b443-5f05f41313ea | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Do agents with (mutually known) identical utility functions but irreconcilable knowledge sometimes fight?
Been pondering; will conflict always exist? A major subquestion: Suppose we all merge utility functions and form an interstellar community devoted to optimizing the merger. It'll probably make sense for us to spec... |
49edbc52-d0a9-475b-b1c4-2228c71ff2a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Boston - Schelling Day
Discussion article for the meetup : Boston - Schelling Day
WHEN: 16 April 2014 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Citadel House, 98 Elm St Apt 1, Somerville, MA
Schelling Day is a rationalist holiday (designed by Ben Landau-Taylor) that is about sharing important and personal things in our li... |
53b88ba0-73af-40c3-8606-5bd783b6f369 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A hypothesis testing video game
The Blob Family is a simple game made by Leon Arnott. At heart, it's a game about testing hypotheses and getting the right answer with the least amount of evidence you can.
The mechanics work like so: Balls bounce around the screen randomly and you control a character who needs to avoi... |
b4cb16b4-35ef-43b4-93fa-1b39fd6419c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Experiment In Social Status: Software Engineer vs. Data Science Manager
Here is an interesting blog post about a guy who did a resume experiment between two positions which he argues are by experience identical, but occupy different "social status" positions in tech: A software engineer and a data manager.
> Inter... |
6f8a3a37-fc04-4442-bbd9-ddf63791e92e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What makes people intellectually active?
What is the difference between a smart person who has read the sequences and considers AI x-risk important and interesting, but continues to be primarily a consumer of ideas, and someone who starts having ideas? I am not trying to set a really high bar here -- they don't have t... |
3ae5fccd-6c87-4261-bd7a-ca97fcfa5108 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Terminology point rationality vs rationalism.
> Rationalism should not be confused with rationality, nor with rationalization.
-Wikipedia article on rationalism
I frequently see people using rationalism in place of rationality. Usually other commenters understand them, however I believe that using the word ration... |
65d0ec4a-f783-4311-83c0-71ae2225f0ea | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI-Box Experiment - The Acausal Trade Argument
[The AI-Box Experiment](http://yudkowsky.net/singularity/aibox)
I suspect that the argument that convinced Carl Shulman and others to let the AI out of the box was along general lines of acausal trade (see [here](/lw/2cp/open_thread_june_2010_part_3/25qn), [here](/lw/2c... |
b73b975c-79c5-48fd-b8c2-11170da0eb76 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bimodal AI Beliefs
Much is said about society's general lack of AI situational awareness. One prevailing topic of conversation in my social orbit is our ongoing bafflement about how so many other people we know, otherwise smart and inquisitive, seem unaware of or unconcerned about AI progress, x-risk, etc. This hardly... |
2723297b-4266-4ea4-a977-199cb264d615 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mark Manson and Evidence-Based Personal Development
Most personal development is notoriously unreliable.
Mark Manson, a popular personal development author, is making an effort to make his advice more scientific. To this end, he has started labelling his blog posts based on their evidence base. He writes that he has:... |
ff08fdac-7c69-47e1-998d-6ab6fed1c420 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC Games meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC Games meetup
WHEN: 06 May 2014 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, Washington, DC 20001, USA
We'll be meeting to hang out and play games.
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC Games meetup |
453a39e5-cf03-419a-914d-70cab21d2f4e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to model uncertainty about preferences?
I've recently started to think about how nascent "hot mess" superintelligence can reflect on its own values and converge to something consistent. The simplest route to think about this, it seems to me, is model it like a process of resolving uncertainity of superintelligence... |
0f3b223b-0d3d-4783-a879-0ea1a82c0366 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Bet Kelly?
The Kelly criterion is an elegant, but often misunderstood, result in decision theory. To begin with, suppose you have some amount of some resource, which you would like to increase. (For example, the resource might be monetary wealth.) You are given the opportunity to make a series of identical bets. Y... |
9dd766fd-1add-45ae-8ef9-4055eca4c1da | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | The Effects of Reward Misspecification: Mapping and Mitigating Misaligned Models
1 Introduction
---------------
As reinforcement learning agents are trained with better algorithms, more data, and larger policy models, they are at increased risk of overfitting their objectives (russell2019human). *Reward hacking*, o... |
6fe8b70a-3e95-496a-88d1-b6a4d4684fae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Distributed espionage
The Mole is a documentary of how a Danish chef and a French ex-conman bluffed their way into trading ballistic missiles with Kim Jong Un. High resolution espionage footage is available on youtube.
(It's possible this video gets deleted from youtube in future, consider making an offline copy or e... |
f69c766c-1e8b-454c-b665-c08472deec66 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Example population ethics: ordered discounted utility
This article is a stub. Alas, you can't help Wikipedia (or LessWrong) by expanding it. Except through good comments.
Here I'll present an old idea for a theory of population ethics. This post exists mainly so that I can have something to point to when I need this ... |
9efb4247-67c6-424d-a455-49e69ffc6378 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Searle vs Bostrom: crucial considerations for EA AI work?
In his [review](https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2014/10/09/what-your-computer-cant-know/) of Nick Bostrom's *Superintelligence*, philosopher John Searle (creator of the '[Chinese Room](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room)' thought experiment) seems to a... |
a7f470df-9f09-4fd2-af23-05c5b7529080 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Advice request: Homeownership
So I'm probably about two months from owning a home. (Realtor says we might close within a month; experienced friend says 3-6 weeks; I'll be vaguely surprised if it's not done by August.)
This is exciting, and also more than a little daunting. My near-mode brainbits don't know quite what... |
aff8ad0e-533a-409e-a39e-0e2a9abbb470 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Decoherence
Today's post, Decoherence was originally published on 22 April 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> A quantum system that factorizes can evolve into a system that doesn't factorize, destroying the illusion of independence. But entangling a quantum system with its environment, can app... |
6adac57f-c86c-4b16-8fc7-01df22f25468 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Transparency for Generalizing Alignment from Toy Models
Status: Some rough thoughts and intuitions.
🪧 indicates signposting
TL;DR If we make our optimization procedures transparent, we might be able to analyze them in toy environments to build understanding that generalizes to the real world and to more powerful, s... |
0ca3122f-24ba-4321-9eff-53f98a8bf179 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [cross-post with EA Forum] The EA Forum Podcast is up and running
Cross-posted here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TMCWXTayji7gvRK9p/is-democracy-a-fad
I made a thing!
https://anchor.fm/ea-forum-podcast
It's the Effective Altruism Forum Podcast! So far the only episodes up are Ben Garfinkel's Is Democra... |
71b1409b-405f-432c-8d60-c9418de076a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is food like?
I have an Anki1 deck of things I feel like a failure regarding. Instead of each card having a question that I see if I can remember the answer to, it has a potentially shameful thing that I see if I still feel bad about. Each time I look at one, as well as marking it correct to the extent that I no ... |
775260f0-76f2-425d-813c-c8705364a4e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread: March 4 - 10
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here. |
58f70bc1-e60b-4d18-afc8-a1a64926f2b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Could a Supreme Court suit work to solve NEPA problems?
According to Eli Dourado, the original interpretation of the NEPA law was reasonable. The earliest Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) were often less than ten pages. Afterward, through a combination of district court decisions and the decisions of the Council ... |
7403f07f-bd57-41bf-81fe-e87325adb051 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What must be the case that ChatGPT would have memorized “To be or not to be”? – Three kinds of conceptual objects for LLMs
This is cross-posted from my personal blog, New Savanna.
Is anyone working on this kind of issue? If so, I'd like to know.
----------------------------------------
I've been thinking about Ch... |
351226be-b0da-499c-b54e-b9a602217033 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | A Prototypeness Hierarchy of Realities
*(this post may contain some very vague spoileryness about the video game Outer Wilds)*
A Prototypeness Hierarchy of Realities
--------------------------------------
one property of many video games that i felt the most when playing the excellent [Outer Wilds](https://store.s... |
aecdd380-ca53-444b-bfdf-fd2955acfadf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quasi-optimal predictors
In this post I define the concept of quasi-optimal predictors which is a weaker variant on the theme of optimal predictors. I explain the properties of quasi-optimal predictors that I currently understand (which are completely parallel to the properties of optimal predictors) and give an examp... |
12065406-78b6-40de-ae1c-3e63e3de1081 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Replicating the replication crisis with GPT-3?
I am getting worried that people are having so much fun doing interesting stuff with GPT-3 and AI Dungeon that they're forgetting how easy it is to fool yourself. Maybe we should think about how many different cognitive biases are in play here? Here are some features that... |
dab603c9-1692-46f6-b47b-f2d035f0c7ae | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post2728
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here . In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter. Audio version here (may not be up yet). SE... |
96511be7-dd5a-431d-97cc-deb3ea4f0dfe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Less Wrong Cambridge (MA) first-Sundays meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong Cambridge (MA) first-Sundays meetup
WHEN: 03 June 2012 02:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 25 Ames St, Cambridge, MA 02139, Cambridge, Ma
Cambridge/Boston-area Less Wrong meetups on the first and third Sunday of every month... |
e9f9abde-e423-45b4-87d1-1e945f50e85c | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post702
This is a link-post for a paper I recently read: Pretraining Language Models with Human Preferences , followed by my reactions to this paper. Reading this paper has significantly reduced my near-term P ( D O O M ) , and I'd like to explain why. Thus, this is also an alignment proposal. While I don't think ... |
ea8c7764-8139-485a-bffc-b40a62689af7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | FAI Research Constraints and AGI Side Effects
Ozzie Gooen and Justin Shovelain
Summary
Friendly artificial intelligence (FAI) researchers have at least two significant challenges. First, they must produce a significant amount of FAI research in a short amount of time. Second, they must do so without producing enough... |
18996d72-cab1-4a2a-90dc-f71cc06899d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking Solutions for Aggregating Classifier Outputs
Hi everyone,
I’m working on a project that utilizes multiple classifiers, each trained on a distinct subset of classes. These classifiers are intended to tackle various aspects of the classification process, but I’m encountering difficulties in combining their outp... |
93f29af8-017a-422b-91ec-1899ef25445c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beyond Hyperanthropomorphism
A philosophical argument against "the AI-fear". |
8ee47e6e-6809-4a16-97ae-9a3749e693ba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Rogue AGI Embodies Valuable Intellectual Property
*This post was written by Mark Xu based on interviews with Carl Shulman. It was paid for by Open Philanthropy but is not representative of their views.*
Summary:
* Rogue AGI has access to its embodied IP.
* This IP will be worth a moderate fraction of the total val... |
33875c31-5b05-4d53-8926-9cea3282c64e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conservative classifiers
Summary: If we train a classifier on a training set that comes from one distribution, and test it on a dataset coming from a different distribution, uniform convergence guarantees generally no longer hold. This post presents a strategy for creating classifiers that will reject test points when... |
d739da23-1a40-4f67-8dab-a9a4bbaf3524 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What conservatives and environmentalists agree on
Today we had a sudden cold snap here in western Pennsylvania, with the temperature dropping 30 degrees F. I was walking through a white field that had been green yesterday, looking at daffodils poking up through the snow and feeling irritated that they'd probably die.... |
ce5d2789-6839-4fa7-b3c2-de74d49a5845 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Long Covid Risks: 2023 Update
Back in 2021 I wrote a post estimating the risk of long covid. Recently a client hired me to do an update, focusing on changes induced by Paxlovid and vaccination. This was a <5h project and the literature wasn’t very rich so nothing I say here is conclusive, but nothing I said last time ... |
a200f426-0c7e-4acc-a62e-b064798acaff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Value of Those in Effective Altruism
Summary/TL;DR: this piece offers Fermi Estimates of the value of those in EA, focusing on the distinctions between typical EA members and dedicated members (defined below). These estimates suggest that, compared to the current movement baseline, we should prioritize increasing ... |
15807630-eac3-47c3-9da1-22b06740cc50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Which Basis Is More Fundamental?
Today's post, Which Basis Is More Fundamental? was originally published on 24 April 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> The position basis can be computed locally in the configuration space; the momentum basis is not local. Why care about locality? Because it is... |
a6d59bb4-53c1-45ec-a559-971145e11655 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We're Not Advertising Enough (Post 3 of 7 on AI Governance)
In my previous post in this series, I explained why we urgently need to change AI developers’ incentives: if we allow the status quo to continue, then an AI developer will recklessly deploy misaligned superintelligence, which is likely to permanently disempow... |
d736ccdb-b372-4b0c-bea3-1eb711e3abed | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Arity (of a function)
The arity of a [function](https://arbital.com/p/3jy) is the number of parameters that it takes. For example, the function $f(a, b, c, d) = ac - bd$ is a function with arity 4, and $+$ is a function with arity 2; 2-arity functions are known as [binary functions](https://arbital.com/p/3kb).
A func... |
f52b9e93-9c52-4617-a1a0-faa985a94250 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The mind as a polyviscous fluid
Cross-posted from New Savanna.
About a year ago I uploaded a post with a typically ungainly title, The structured physical system hypothesis (SPSH), Polyviscous connectivity [The brain as a physical system]. It’s that word, “polyviscous,” that’s got my present attention. Since then I’... |
f3e580b1-2ba3-48c5-ad6c-b155018d054e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Intuitive Explanation of Solomonoff Induction
**Update**: Alex Altair has now [finished this tutorial](/lw/dhg/an_intuitive_explanation_of_solomonoff_induction/)!
A while ago I began writing a Solomonoff Induction tutorial, but now it's one of those [Less Wrong articles I probably will never have time to write](... |
3c147a29-c123-4531-8af5-5e15a5253144 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to be skeptical about meditation/Buddhism
Here is how I think we should approach the topic of meditation/Buddhism in the rationalist community. The short version is that a meaningful "yes" requires a credible possibility of "no", and the long version is that:
* If we post scientific studies showing that "meditat... |
140797d6-d532-4ef5-a2b6-c16cb6648961 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Frame Bridging v0.8 - an inquiry and a technique
Hello dear friends,
Question.
What is the nature of the fracture found in unbridgeable frames?
In one meeting with my teacher, I encountered what seemed to be an Unbridgeability. No way to communicate. An impasse.
I couldn't find a single sentence to say that would... |
ae5e124f-4add-4006-b5b0-d9db570e4af0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rejected Early Drafts of Newcomb's Problem
Discovered inside an opaque box at the University of California and shared by an anonymous source, please enjoy these unpublished variations of physicist William Newcomb's famous thought experiment.
Newcomb's Advanced Problem
If Omega predicted that, when presented with thi... |
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