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e563bc9f-1386-42f1-9b10-1637c0f0fd10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Teachers: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
[Epistemic status: This is really complicated, this is not my field, people who have spent their entire lives studying this subject have different opinions, and I don’t claim to have done more than a very superficial survey. I welcome corrections on the many inevitable error... |
2814cca0-5441-40d2-8309-2a1cb5142bcc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What did governments get right? Gotta list them all!
When predicting future threats, we also need to predict future policy responses. If mass pandemics are inevitable, it matters whether governments and international organisations can rise to the challenge or not. But its very hard to get a valid intuitive picture of ... |
2b44377a-4d13-4c9c-8943-6aaacbeda50f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: Weapons of Math Destruction
Epistemic Status: Minus One Million Points
Shortness Status: Long (this is a proposed new norm I want to try out, in the sense of ‘apologies for writing a long letter, I did not have enough time to write a shorter one.’ By contrast, Against Facebook was longer in words, but wo... |
bbaec69a-646c-423e-b32c-fa2a84b90731 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Zero-sum conversion: a cute trick for decision problems
A while ago, we were presented with an interesting puzzle, usually just called "Psy-kosh's non-anthropic problem." This problem is not, as is made clear, an anthropic problem, but it generates a similar sort of confusion by having you cooperate with people who t... |
23e14735-a73b-4760-a918-9c8bbb05a5b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Most Functions Have Undesirable Global Extrema
(Crossposted from my blog Centerless Set)
It’s hard to come up with a workably short function that includes human civilization in its global maximum/minimum.
This is a problem because we specify our goals to AI using functions. For any practical function we might use, t... |
78020707-9d99-4d07-96a2-5c5f8125935c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Black Box Biology
Suppose you want to decrease your risk of heart disease. The conventional advice goes something like this:
* Eat a healthier diet with less LDL-cholesterol raising foods
* Exercise more
* Keep your blood sugar under control
* Don’t smoke, don’t sit too much and don't take 400mg of methamphetamin... |
53c110c9-b049-4b0e-9146-3589415d21d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Strategy Nonconvexity Induced by a Choice of Potential Oracles
One notable aspect of the extant cooperative oracle results is that they are in a different setting from the usual reflective oracle results.
The usual reflective oracle results show a fixed point in the space of potential oracles,[0,1]M×[0,1]∪Q×[0,1]M. T... |
50baf671-bdd3-4583-a8c8-aa4be470c3a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Logical Counterfactuals and Proposition graphs, Part 3
,
Notation note, [ ] are for lists, ( ) are for functions.
Note that many of the words and symbols I am using are made up. When this maths is better understood, someone should reinvent the notation. My notation isn't that great, but its hard to make good notation... |
b3382709-b255-403c-9713-bb1086d3b175 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Build Heaven: A Constrained Boltzmann Brain Generator
Abstract
This article offers a blueprint for how humanity could construct a realistic version of heaven once artificial superintelligence is achieved. This introduces an architectural framework for a "heaven generator," a realistic construction of a system d... |
4295096a-356a-4c18-84d6-f40060c0040a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI self-improvement is possible
#### document purpose
This document mainly argues that human mental development implies that AI self-improvement from sub-human capabilities is possible.
#### document structure
For unambiguous referencing, sections are prefixed D: for description, L: for lemma, H: for hypothesis,... |
b9a114b8-69b5-4b25-9fac-547ca52d6eb4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The National Defense Authorization Act Contains AI Provisions
A bunch of laws about AI were recently passed by Congress in the US.
The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) is the law which funds and organizes the Department of Defense of the United States. A new version of the law is passed periodically. For rea... |
82e088e9-7d4e-4ac8-ae47-39f87b81da08 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SL4 in more legible format
Does anyone have a copy of the SL4 archives in a format that's easier to read - e.g. a single file?
If not, I'd be happy to pay someone to put this together; let me know if interested. |
f7bfc02d-056b-4b28-b3d0-0af4215b658d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You can now apply to EA Funds anytime! (LTFF & EAIF only)
The Long-Term Future Fund (LTFF) and the EA Infrastructure Fund (EAIF) are looking for grant applications:
* You can now apply for a grant anytime. We have removed the previous round-based system, and now aim to evaluate most grants within 21 days of submissi... |
e38913e0-845f-4c0a-bfae-1df0f63bc69e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Embarrassing Problem of Premature Exploitation
tl;dr: summarising some handy concepts from Algorithms to Live By, as they relate to optionality and tinkering.
----------------------------------------
Babies love putting things in their mouths: dirt, insects, bits of grass, their own poo. They have no sense of fe... |
37483144-c863-4891-8dba-7178cd49fcba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Rationalist Guide to OkCupid
There's a lot of data and research on what makes people successful at online dating, but I don't know anyone who actually tried to wholeheartedly apply this to themselves. I decided to be that person: I implemented lessons from data, economics, game theory and of course rationality in my... |
d57e2b1e-cbb2-4473-8d2c-6cc67828e3f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In physical eschatology, is Aestivation a sound strategy?
In this paper, Anders Sandberg, Stuart Armstrong and Milan M. Cirkovic argue that
> If a civilization wants to maximize computation it appears rational to aestivate until the far future in order to exploit the low temperature environment: this can produce a 10... |
fb18f832-b0d1-4432-ac2f-d3d9eddaa86c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Critical Thinking in Global Challenges - free Coursera class
"develop and enhance your ability to think critically, assess information and develop reasoned arguments in the context of the global challenges facing society today."
starts 28 January 2013
cf https://www.coursera.org/course/criticalthinking
see also ht... |
f59f8580-536b-4160-84bb-a80118634bee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] The Logical Fallacy of Generalizing from Fictional Evidence
Today's post, The Logical Fallacy of Generalization from Fictional Evidence was originally published on 16 October 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> The Logical Fallacy of Generalization from Fictional Evidence consists in drawing th... |
3cbdafc4-8219-47d2-9f58-5ea8696bfab9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | human intelligence may be alignment-limited
Previously, I [argued that](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rSycgquipFkozDHzF/ai-self-improvement-is-possible) human mental development implies that AI self-improvement from sub-human capabilities is possible, and that human intelligence comes at the cost of a longer childho... |
9496337f-4371-4b86-8a2d-44984bd9d002 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | EU AI Act passed vote, and x-risk was a main topic
Mainly discussed in the linked article - keeping the post brief.
The EU AI Act was originally proposed in 2020 as a very "EU regulates stuff first" kind of legislation, trying to make sure EU values are upheld (fairness, transparency, democracy, etc). Several revis... |
63532b24-e92a-413c-93a2-83ec634feff8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | goal-program bricks
*(this post has been written for the first [Refine](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D7epkkJb3CqDTYgX9/refine-an-incubator-for-conceptual-alignment-research-bets) blog post day, at the end of the week of readings, discussions, and exercises about epistemology for doing good conceptual research)*
g... |
20aa5d91-3c82-4005-b0f2-62b967515a6b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is this rule of thumb useful for gauging low probabilities?
Does something like this seem to you to be a reasonable rule of thumb, for helping handle scope insensitivity to low probabilities?
There's a roughly 30 to 35 out of a million chance that you will die on any given day; and so if I'm dealing with a probabilit... |
41b046c5-b99f-4a20-81bf-6ff62868908d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Owain Evans on Situational Awareness and Out-of-Context Reasoning in LLMs
Owain Evans is an AI Alignment researcher, research associate at the Center of Human Compatible AI at UC Berkeley, and now leading a new AI safety research group.
In this episode we discuss two of his recent papers, “Me, Myself, and AI: The Sit... |
159de16b-ba9a-4ee0-a90d-7c8d9c43d8b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Burden of Worldbuilding
When I was studying special relativity one of the things which caught my attention was how, because the speed of light c was a constant, you could just set it to c=1. Setting c equal to 1 caused space and time to have the same units. One nanosecond is slightly less than to one foot. The Lor... |
11cd9c18-ef44-4566-8084-a6a10cba2b72 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Equations Mean Things
I asserted that this forum could do with more 101-level and/or mathematical and/or falsifiable posts, and people agreed with me, so here is one. People confident in highschool math mostly won’t get much out of most of this, but students browsing this site between lectures might.
The Sine Rule
S... |
7e1d4ab9-7c41-4fae-b5fb-31ad0ef00a6f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Mr. Meeseeks as an AI capability tripwire
The shutdown problem is hard because self-preservation is a convergent drive. Not being shutdown is useful for accomplishing all sorts of goals, whatever the content of those goals may be.
The Scylla and Charybdis of this problem is that it's hard to write a utility function... |
f40aa7e1-ac4a-4eee-a39a-a2fe5fcd346b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Adversarial Attacks and Defences Competition
1 Introduction
---------------
Recent advances in machine learning and deep neural networks enabled researchers to solve multiple
important practical problems like image, video, text classification and others.
However most existing machine learning classifiers are hi... |
6ec5b036-0267-43fa-a20c-0eb6686a79ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Let's build a fire alarm for AGI
Epistemic status: This uses as a premise the post "There is no fire alarm for AGI" by Eliezer Yudkowsky. It will make little sense to you if you are unfamiliar with that essay or if you disagree with it.
Fear of embarrassment has been empirically shown to stop people from reacting to ... |
6179684c-d08e-4307-a7d8-f79a11e92335 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Revealed New Years Resolutions
Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Revealed New Years Resolutions
WHEN: 04 January 2016 06:15:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 1597 Howard St. San Francisco, CA
We'll be meeting to derive our revealed new years resolutions from last year, based... |
d1aad7a3-71d0-458a-a0d2-7c8ff3448a49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Won't vs. Can't: Sandbagging-like Behavior from Claude Models
In a recent Anthropic Alignment Science blog post, we discuss a particular instance of sandbagging we sometimes observe in the wild: models sometimes claim that they can't perform a task, even when they can, to avoid performing tasks they perceive as harmfu... |
46483b1f-445d-42a9-a331-344d5cb21ed8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Use resilience, instead of imprecision, to communicate uncertainty
Gregory Lewis (Thrasymachus here on LW) posted a great summary of a bunch of arguments I've referenced many times, about how it's better to communicate resilience instead of imprecision to communicate if you are uncertain about something.
> Suppose y... |
32de1566-ab16-41fa-8bbf-1e6937d54c97 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Alex Lawsen On Forecasting AI Progress
Alex Lawsen is an [advisor](https://80000hours.org/speak-with-us/) at [80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) who has released an [Introduction to Forecasting](https://youtu.be/e6Q7Ez3PkOw). We discuss pitfalls that happen when forecasting AI progress, why you cannot just [update ... |
428dc12a-eda0-431d-a52e-631c610d593b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You get one story detail
So, as you know, you have about five words. That is, if you want to convey an idea to a bunch of people, you can only reliably communicate ideas simply enough to fit in five words.
I have a related theory.
If you want a lot of people to remember a story, you have to keep it tiny. How tiny? I... |
47755ed9-5e65-40fb-b9c5-3c4d09cd6be9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conditions for Superrationality-motivated Cooperation in a one-shot Prisoner's Dilemma
Summary
It has been argued that, if two very similar agents follow decision theories allowing for superrationality (e.g., EDT and FDT), they would cooperate in a prisoner’s dilemma (PD) (see e.g., Oesterheld 2017). But how similar d... |
cefd7222-4a58-4a89-8e25-553c55816fdc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | “Necessary Claims”: A technique to structure complex decisions
Life often turns out to be too complicated to fit into a human brain. If you’ve ever tried to choose from fifty flavors of ice cream, or to decide whether to buy a house, you know what I mean.
Humans tend to make complex decisions based on simplified mode... |
6bc96439-1128-45be-b4ca-100a00cb3de1 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "...Do not all charms fly At the mere touch of cold philosophy? There was an awful rainbow once in heaven: We know her woof, her texture; she is given In the dull catalogue of common things. —John Keats, Lamia
"Nothing is 'mere'." —Richard Feynman You've got to admire that phrase, "dull catalogue of common things". Wha... |
d6d3ad31-f94a-45be-9d50-930d74a106d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fluent, Cruxy Predictions
The latest in the Feedback Loop Rationality series.
Periodically, people (including me) try to operationalize predictions, or bets, and... it doesn't seem to help much.
I think I recently "got good" at making "actually useful predictions." I currently feel on-the-cusp of unlocking a host... |
998335cc-3f7b-4bab-8071-4432db9c59be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI coordination needs clear wins
Thanks to Kate Woolverton and Richard Ngo for useful conversations, comments, and feedback.
EA and AI safety have invested a lot of resources into building our ability to get coordination and cooperation between big AI labs. So far, however, despite that investment, it doesn’t seem to... |
d5f723f3-9d78-437f-b963-eedea19b2ee6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Collaborating with Humans without Human Data
1 Introduction
---------------
Generating agents which collaborate with novel partners is a longstanding challenge for Artificial Intelligence (AI) [Bard et al., [2020](#bib.bib4 "The Hanabi challenge: a new frontier for AI research"), Dafoe et al., [2020](#bib.bib17 "Op... |
ed5b6474-7ac1-4336-9721-5f0f9002f42d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Self-pretending" is not as useful as we think
A few weeks ago I made a draft of a post that was originally intended to be about the same issue addressed in MBlume’s post regarding beneficial false beliefs. Coincidentally, my draft included the same exact hypothetical about entering a club believing you’re the most at... |
16499270-e23d-48b2-9cad-d4a50f114f69 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Twitter thread on politics of AI safety
Some thoughts about the politics of AI safety, copied over (with slight modifications) from my recent twitter thread:
Risks that seem speculative today will become common sense as AI advances. The pros and cons of different safety strategies will also become much clearer over t... |
681932d9-339d-4d0a-a73a-045cb0d7d632 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Link: xkcd 1450: AI-Box Experiment
Today's (21 November 2014) comic, especially the alt-text, strongly suggests that Randall Munroe has been on this website recently. |
16a2ebc8-a755-4f3c-b222-b848425c4ea9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Review of Alignment Plan Critiques- December AI-Plans Critique-a-Thon Results
These are the Critiques from the AI-Plans.com December Critique-a-Thon of 2023.
Prizes will be awarded to contestants based on collective judge feedback.
Critiques were anonymized when reviewed by the judges.
Judges:
- @So8res
- @Rama... |
b582cbb2-856c-499a-8a37-2aabb86ae21e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 9/10: Vitamin D
Last week: Covid 9/3: Meet the New CDC
Imagine there is a simple, cheap, safe and effective solution for Covid-19.
The solution is something known to be safe. It is widely available for reasonable prices. Any patents have long expired. It is something that people need and benefit from anyway. ... |
be3c7c00-d401-413c-bb39-1d055e5ccec0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Failures of an embodied AIXI
Building a safe and powerful artificial general intelligence seems a difficult task. Working on that task *today* is particularly difficult, as there is no clear path to AGI yet. Is there work that can be done now that makes it more likely that humanity will be able to build a safe, powerf... |
759e72d0-ac6b-4e20-ac32-c2de7a8b36c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Making nothing out of a big deal
I recently asked my boyfriend how he heats water, given that he apparently doesn’t use a kettle. He said you can in fact heat water in a pot on the stove. Heating water in a pot sounds arduous to me, which is a bit strange because it’s not obviously more complicated than heating water ... |
10033a64-d117-4c7d-b63c-2839d7fd1123 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality anecdotes for the homepage?
In the comments for The Cognitive Science of Rationality, Spurlock said
> The beginning of this post (the list of concrete, powerful, real/realistic, and avoidable cases of irrationality in action), is probably the best introduction to x-rationality I've read yet. I can easily ... |
df4582af-c3db-4065-9a37-a67751fac824 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Results of a One-Year Longitudinal Study of CFAR Alumni
By Dan from CFAR
Introduction
When someone comes to a CFAR workshop, and then goes back home, what is different for them one year later? What changes are there to their life, to how they think, to how they act?
CFAR would like to have an answer to this questio... |
78fd2999-bec2-4fc1-bbc1-c0a38f601cfc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Heuristics for Deciding What to Work On
If you're like me, you have way more ideas for things to do than time, energy, and willpower to do them with. (And if you're not like me, you might very well become like me if you just kept track of all the times you or someone else said "Hey, that might be a worthwhile project... |
3de62248-9ab5-4c01-8631-fc2be62398c8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Thoughts on the Singularity Institute (SI)
*This post presents thoughts on the Singularity Institute from Holden Karnofsky, Co-Executive Director of [GiveWell](http://www.givewell.org). Note: Luke Muehlhauser, the Executive Director of the Singularity Institute, reviewed a draft of this post, and commented: "I do gene... |
9c26ea78-cef4-4bf1-b1a4-2e880f0eec38 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Estimation is the best we have
This argument seems common to many debates:
> ‘Proposal P arrogantly assumes that it is possible to measure X, when really X is hard to measure and perhaps even changes depending on other factors. Therefore we shouldn’t do P’.
This could make sense if X wasn’t especially integral to th... |
321de6a6-495f-4d03-83e0-77b33f1a02c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Theoretically, could we balance the budget painlessly?
Economically, all government spending takes the form of forgone private consumption. This implies that all deficit spending is in fact a sort of tax.
Suppose we were to raise taxes to make this implicit tax explicit. For the purpose of this hypothetical, let... |
2bda4161-9ac2-467b-9231-1b34461d14c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Better difference-making views
Summary
1. I make three arguments against standard difference-making risk aversion that I find compelling as a consequentialist, despite my substantial sympathy for something like difference-making risk aversion:
1. It privileges a default option, literally as or like an act-omissio... |
7f372a99-cd59-4067-a61d-f27093384855 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Would it be useful to collect the contexts, where various LLMs think the same?
My initial idea was *Let's see where the small, interpretable, model makes the same inference as the huge, ¯dangerous, model and focus on those cases in the small model to help explain the bigger one*. Quite likely I am wrong, but with a ti... |
e867f4bd-cfa6-473a-9371-dc8a98891f6b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Measurement tampering detection as a special case of weak-to-strong generalization
Burns et al at OpenAI released a paper studying various techniques for fine-tuning strong models on downstream tasks using labels produced by weak models. They call this problem “weak-to-strong generalization”, abbreviated W2SG.
Earlie... |
67432863-89e7-481a-bedb-6becd8ff8538 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cache invalidation test
Cache should be cleared |
f58883a7-7d7e-4e10-9712-e169c53506a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some heuristics I use for deciding how much I trust scientific results
I've done nothing to test these heuristics and have no empirical evidence for how well they work for forecasting replications or anything else. I’m going to write them anyway. The heuristics I’m listing are roughly in order of how important I think... |
ee731743-fb9f-44dc-9ef5-c4c8e67946d7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Comments on CAIS
Over the last few months I’ve talked with Eric Drexler a number of times about his Comprehensive AI Services (CAIS) model of AI development, and read most of [his technical report](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Reframing_Superintelligence_FHI-TR-2019-1.1-1.pdf) on the topic. I think thes... |
accc7e92-d685-4ca2-a570-bb33cbed020b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Military AI as a Convergent Goal of Self-Improving AI
|
71fbccef-4f24-4674-90c1-d6d7862dc17b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Poker example: (not) deducing someone's preferences
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
I've shown that it is, theoretically, impossible to deduce the preferences and rationality of an agent by looking at their actions or policy.
That argument is valid, but feels somewhat abstract, talking about "fully anti-rational" agents, and oth... |
ea379e79-adb0-4fe8-939d-02b363c31c7a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Qualitative Strategies of Friendliness
Today's post, Qualitative Strategies of Friendliness was originally published on 30 August 2008 . A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Qualitative strategies to achieve friendliness tend to run into difficulty.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments... |
33b15b9b-8a98-4346-aaf9-7299ae44d33d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AISN #31: A New AI Policy Bill in California
Plus, Precedents for AI Governance and The EU AI Office
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
Subscribe here to receive future versions.
Listen to the AI Safety Newsl... |
b52ba5aa-20bd-4ef8-a7be-9be470e1c67c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Satisfying preferences by creating them
Sarkology points out that the intuition against it being a good thing to create new lives may be this:
> …You are supposed to help people by satisfying their (already fixed and existent) preferences. Not by modifying those preferences to meet reality. Or God forbid, invent thos... |
1f790a8e-c9e1-4b20-b4ff-d9ac4c340379 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Imagine that I, in full view of live television cameras, raised my hands and chanted abracadabra and caused a brilliant light to be born, flaring in empty space beyond my outstretched hands. Imagine that I committed this act of blatant, unmistakeable sorcery under the full supervision of James Randi and all skeptical ... |
ba1b50f2-d9b2-49c0-b1ca-fb541dff3783 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Contra Yudkowsky on AI Doom
Eliezer Yudkowsky predicts doom from AI: that humanity faces likely extinction in the near future (years or decades) from a rogue unaligned superintelligent AI system. Moreover he predicts that this is the default outcome, and AI alignment is so incredibly difficult that even he failed to s... |
161c5be5-0343-4996-9823-baec79641ecf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The boat
> A short science fiction story about our ancestors and the ethical responsibility we have towards them.
Old Ana's legs fought against her now, but still she led her granddaughter up the mountain path. The girl's torch made shadows dance on the rocks. The river sang in the distance – the same river that h... |
d5d2d061-7818-486e-90ed-de58e2651c6e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Long-Term and Short-Term Challenges to Ensuring the Safety of AI Systems
#### Introduction
There has been much recent discussion about AI risk, meaning specifically the potential pitfalls (both short-term and long-term) that AI with improved capabilities could create for society. Discussants include AI researchers s... |
aef6e5c1-4e2f-4437-87ca-e046868a34bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 8/11/22: The End Is Never The End
On Tuesday morning as I was grabbing croissants, the man in front of me turned around and told me to back away. ‘Because of the pandemic.’ He was the only one in the bakery wearing a mask, yet in every way he gave off the clear vibe that I, not he, was the one being unreasonable... |
851d8c7b-1a73-4f9e-b2eb-98dd8ecacd28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Orange County Atheist Meetup Thursday September 8
Discussion article for the meetup : Orange County Atheist Meetup Thursday September 8
WHEN: 08 September 2011 07:30:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 18542 MacArthur Blvd Irvine, CA 92612
Once again we are going adjust the weekly Irvine meetup to join the Orange County A... |
5e154ff2-5c58-49c1-9d95-9cf026b74bc3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A FLI postdoctoral grant application: AI alignment via causal analysis and design of agents
TL;DR: This is a proposal I wrote for the Future of Life postdoctoral grants, on the topic of AI Safety. The topic of this proposal is being able to model human preferences in a causal model. This is somewhat similar to the age... |
0bc15d5e-c90c-4153-8b07-b850d45792a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | April links
None |
b42a730f-6036-48f6-997c-41a625dcc59c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why agents are powerful
[Written for Blog Post Day. Not super happy with it, it’s too rambly and long, but I’m glad it exists.]
Here are some questions I think this theory of agency can answer:
* What are agents?
* Why should we expect AI agents to be useful for various important tasks?
* Why should we think agen... |
1047faed-a35a-4289-9631-d5c598ce661e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Layman's Explanation of "Safely Interruptible Agents"
|
e9c28482-6ef0-45a1-9f7e-5a44cfe9b69e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Safety-First Agents/Architectures Are a Promising Path to Safe AGI
Summary
Language model agents (LMAs) like AutoGPT have promising safety characteristics compared to traditional conceptions of AGI. The LLMs they are composed of plan, think, and act in highly transparent and correctable ways, although not maximally so... |
56360560-c46b-4bb3-9073-430a6929c155 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AMA or discuss my 80K podcast episode: Ben Garfinkel, FHI researcher
[[THIRD EDIT: Thanks so much for all of the questions and comments! There are still a few more I'd like to respond to, so I may circle back to them a bit later, but, due to time constraints, I'm otherwise finished up for now. Any further comments or ... |
791765fd-4ef9-43d8-abba-8e4b94a49ecc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We Should Introduce Ourselves Differently
I told an intelligent, well-educated friend about Less Wrong, so she googled, and got "Less Wrong is an online community for people who want to apply the discovery of biases like the conjunction fallacy, the affect heuristic, and scope insensitivity in order to fix their own t... |
ea7c8059-3196-4c10-b71e-74d22f37b24d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Economist Irene Ng on Market design, entrepreneurship, and innovation.
At the Futurati Podcast we recently recorded an interview with Irene Ng on market design, modularity and legibility in systems of behavior, innovation, game theory, privacy, the blockchain, and a few other subjects.
Though it's far removed from th... |
20021448-1a48-477c-b8e2-78d10d65ef68 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can you control the past?
(Cross-posted from Hands and Cities. Lots of stuff familiar to LessWrong folks interested in decision theory.)
I think that you can “control” events you have no causal interaction with, including events in the past, and that this is a wild and disorienting fact, with uncertain but possibly s... |
fe52b147-4a58-4535-9b2d-65d44443d57c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shrödinger’s lottery or: Why you are going to live forever
[I wrote this for my work lunch group after listening to David Wallace on the many-worlds theory of quantum mechanics and its implications. It seemed like a good first post here after a long time lurking.]
Shrödinger’s cat is the famous thought experiment tha... |
940ed9f1-1ce6-459c-a27d-07e7ac919cc0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sleeping on Stage
When I think of the ideal place for sleeping it's something like, peaceful, dark, and quiet. The chaotic bright loud stage of a contra dance is pretty far from this, and yet generations of kids have curled up behind their parents and fallen asleep:
It's a good idea to make them a nest they can ... |
c481890c-796f-4a85-9f98-a14a24bedf90 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Import AI 326:Chinese AI regulations; Stability's new LMs If AI is fashionable in 2023, then what will be fashionable in 2024?
Welcome to Import AI, a newsletter about AI research. Import AI runs on lattes, ramen, and feedback from readers. If you’d like to support this (and comment on posts!) please subscribe.
[Subs... |
7a3e1ea0-0c20-4f69-a14c-3b4c94f15850 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Video: The Phenomenology of Intentions
We all know intuitively what it feels like to "intend" a certain outcome or action. However, knowing what a thing is intuitively is different from having a deep introspective take on how the thing actually plays out in your own brain. In this Mental Model Monday, I go deep into t... |
0ad40bcd-095d-484d-bdaa-4b57ab090ba6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Measuring Nonlinear Feature Interactions in Sparse Crosscoders [Project Proposal]
TL;DR
* Problem: Sparse crosscoders are powerful tools for compressing neural network representations into interpretable features. However, we don’t understand how features interact.
* Perspective: We need systematic procedures to mea... |
378a7ccb-e48d-4ee2-8653-33671beb1c48 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | How to ‘troll for good’: Leveraging IP for AI governance
A new *Science* paper proposes using existing intellectual property law to create and enforce AI regulation, an approach much faster than traditional legislation.
“Leveraging IP for AI governance” by Cason Schmit, Meg Doerr and Jennifer K. Wagner:
>
> Our ... |
0d2fe400-1e46-4e93-966c-853e2845ea31 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Graphical Representations of Paul Christiano's Doom Model
Paul gives some numbers on AI doom (text below). Here they are in graphical forms, which I find easier to understand. Please correct me if wrong.
Michael Trazzi's Probability Flow Diagram
=========================================
I really like this one. I can... |
b440c3bc-1e85-45a0-8e16-1a91491df921 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The two-layer model of human values, and problems with synthesizing preferences
I have been thinking about Stuart Armstrong's [preference synthesis research agenda](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CSEdLLEkap2pubjof/research-agenda-v0-9-synthesising-a-human-s-preferences-into), and have long had the feeling that there'... |
7a04d5a6-c254-41be-b810-a77fc5392dd1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Finding Neurons in a Haystack: Case Studies with Sparse Probing
Abstract
> Despite rapid adoption and deployment of large language models (LLMs), the internal computations of these models remain opaque and poorly understood. In this work, we seek to understand how high-level human-interpretable features are represente... |
6fb1ebaa-5593-4f09-b960-7db4f1fc0913 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Activation Pattern SVD: A proposal for SAE Interpretability
Epistemic status: This is a rough-draft write-up about a thought experiment I did. Reasonably confident about the broad arguments being made here. That said, I haven't spent a lot of time rigorously polishing or reviewing my writing, so minor inaccuracies may... |
bc7c5d09-d523-4d00-b0d7-fc8d43115e08 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Timeline of book-length works in machine ethics
Timeline:
* Danielson, Artificial Morality: Virtuous Robots for Virtual Games (1992)
* Marsh, Formalizing Trust as a Computational Concept (1994)
* Yudkowsky, Creating Friendly AI (2001)
* Hall, Beyond AI: Creating the Conscience of a Machine (2007)
* Wallach & All... |
edd5d4fc-97a8-43aa-89f1-6df6708c4bc2 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post338
Machine learning systems are typically trained to maximize average-case performance. However, this method of training can fail to meaningfully control the probability of tail events that might cause significant harm. For instance, while an artificial intelligence (AI) assistant may be generally safe, it wo... |
2131a79b-5c64-4d99-95f6-56c58e35c9c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ignorance of non-existent preferences
I often hear it said that since you can’t know what non existent people or creatures want, you can’t count bringing them into existence as a benefit to them even if you guess they will probably like it. For instance Adam Ozimek makes this argument here.
Does this absolute agnosti... |
2112b559-30e7-4c34-a90d-a189cabc80e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New LW Meetup: Boise ID, Bay City MI
This summary was posted to LW Main on July 8th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* Bay City Meetup: 19 August 2016 01:25PM
* Boise, ID Meetup: 24 July 2016 02:30PM
* Dallas Meetup: 09 July 2016 0... |
ca0d68a2-b1c5-4e43-beda-3fab1e310aa0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review Review (end of the bounty program)
This post calls an official end to the LessWrong Sep/Oct 2021 Book Review Bounty Program!! A huge thank you to everyone who submitted! You've produced some superb content.
I launched the program with the goals of getting more great content on the site, encouraging people... |
9c4449a8-249d-4e68-b0da-23b5e48296d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Iterated Distillation-Amplification, Gato, and Proto-AGI [Re-Explained]
Note: This is a joint distillation of both Iterated Distillation and Amplification by Ajeya Cotra (summarizing Paul Christiano) and A Generalist Agent by DeepMind.
Audience: New to alignment. Mostly non-technical, but a basic ML understanding hel... |
6ee3c0cc-ee2a-4866-8c26-8509f44f4149 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A map of Bay Area memespace
The main reason we picked the Bay Area as a home for the Center for Applied Rationality was simply because that's where our initial fiscal sponsor, MIRI, was located. Yet as I’ve gotten to know this region better in the year and a half since then, I’ve been struck by how good the fit has tu... |
e65e7fad-89e0-4834-8f0c-474c69e67300 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Newcomb's Lottery Problem
*Inspired by and variant of* [*The Ultimate Newcomb's Problem*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RAh4fekdiRhZxb2Kw/the-ultimate-newcomb-s-problem)*.*
In front of you are two boxes, box A and box B. You can either take only box B (one-boxing) or both (two-boxing). Box A visibly contains $1,000... |
93b62fb8-83fb-4f05-bc2e-85b25a60e956 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | DeepMind x UCL | Deep Learning Lectures | 3/12 | Convolutional Neural Networks for Image Recognition
so convolutional neural network works
for image recognition so this is the
plan for this lecture I'm gonna give you
a little bit of background about
convolutional neural networks or as I'll
be referring to them hencefo... |
14d3bbc9-4ed6-4125-944b-5d13b8c97bed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self-Blinded L-Theanine RCT
Value tracked Effect size d (λ, p, σ change) Effect size d (λ, p, σ change) 200 mg Caffeine (n=1, m=50) 500 mg L-theanine (n=1, m=50) Log-score substance prediction[1] -0.6 -0.7 Absorption 0.61 (λ=13.3, p=0.00017, -0.072) 0.04 (λ=1.38, p=0.77, -0.07) Mindfulness 0.58 (λ=11.8, p=0.0007, 0.02... |
6e46acf8-4b4c-4ac3-be59-7edf6337bcd6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Church vs. Taskforce
Today's post, Church vs. Taskforce was originally published on 28 March 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Churches serve a role of providing community - but they aren't explicitly optimized for this, because their nominal role is different. If we desire community without ... |
9660100c-bf05-4aa8-8afd-13b29c229000 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Holden Karnofsky's Singularity Institute Objection 2
The sheer length of GiveWell co-founder and co-executive director Holden Karnofsky's excellent critique of the Singularity Institute means that it's hard to keep track of the resulting discussion. I propose to break out each of his objections into a separate Discus... |
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