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e3829e32-897f-452e-bca0-0e28752ee09d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Vaccine Rollout as Wheeled-Luggage Problem
According to FiercePharma, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, and Novavax plan to produce a combined ~9 billion doses this year. They are collaborating with other companies to scale up production, and have facilities all over the world. They're licensing their p... |
dde6cac3-363b-4305-ae7d-66394136a6f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Removing interrupted histories doesn't debias
Safe interruptibility is essentially the problem of getting the agent not to learn from human interruptions - to continue on, as if it was expecting never to be interrupted again.
In an episodic task, one naive idea would be to simply delete histories which include interr... |
7f4d0419-6aac-46c4-94fe-c994de5e136e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reality comprehensibility: are there illogical things in reality?
Introduction
For all thought that an actor in the cosmos (such as yourself) does, the ability to comprehend reality and the nature of reality as being comprehensible is foundational to understand. With ourselves as entities which make sense of reality v... |
c281f999-9ed6-4b72-88dc-4add49d10fa8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Other prespective on resolving the Prisoner's dilemma
Sometimes I see new ideas that, without offering any new information, offers a new perspective on old information, and a new way of thinking about an old problem. So it is with this lecture and the prisoner's dilemma.
Now, I worked a lot with the prisoners dilemma... |
0799c879-c8f3-463f-8ec8-3d4f0dfa22e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Topics from "Procedural Knowledge Gaps"
About a year ago, we had a major discussion about procedural knowledge gaps. Here's what was covered....
How to tell whether food is fresh
pjeby claims that eating raw chicken is safe because the gag reflex identifies it fast
How to buy investments
Memorizing the alphabet an... |
a3834932-7791-44d5-9bda-d239f3d9d4b2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Alignment versus AI Alignment
*Financial status: This work is supported by individual donors and a grant from LTFF.*
*Epistemic status: This post contains many inside-view stories about the difficulty of alignment.*
*Thanks to Adam Shimi, John Wentworth, and Rob Miles for comments on this essay.*
---
What ex... |
ce9da296-6584-41a6-ab91-ccf0dfa42ef3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Defining Freedom
I’ve always found the concept of Freedom confusing.
There’s a level on which it makes sense. When William Wallace is talking about being free from the yoke of Edward Longshanks, it’s obvious what he means – the English king and his goons regularly come to town, order people around, take their stuff a... |
c2f4638b-5c31-49b5-9b0d-8f61fd8b9116 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is autonomy? Why boundaries are necessary.
Here I define autonomy as not having your insides controlled by your outsides.
Complete autonomy is impossible, of course. This is the lim→∞.
For example, imagine a bacterium.
It has insides: its guts.
It has outsides: its environment.
And in between, it has a m... |
3ed2a902-2f45-452c-9751-daa92319a02e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Utility of Human Atoms for the Paperclip Maximizer
TL;DR: use of humans’ atoms will increase AI’s expected utility by 0.00000000000000002 of total U.
The iconic example of the existential risk of superintelligence is the so-called paperclip maximizer, that is, a system which maximizes some random goal not aligned... |
e6c67c36-1147-46d2-adb1-9204e1d5b87e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is the Star Trek Federation really incapable of building AI?
In the Star Trek universe, we are told that it’s really hard to make genuine artificial intelligence, and that Data is so special because he’s a rare example of someone having managed to create one.
But this doesn’t seem to be the best hypothesis for explai... |
ce419e23-9f5f-4b4c-b6a4-e1848f90c3af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to annoy misanthropes and bleeding-hearts
Related to Not for the Sake of Selfishness Alone, Crime and Punishment, and Separate morality from free will.
Here is a simple method for resolving some arguments about free will. Not for resolving the question, mind you. Just the arguments.
One group of people does... |
6b30b489-6c72-4608-8162-da9a6dcdb34f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reinforcement Learning: A Non-Standard Introduction (Part 1)
Imagine that the world is divided into two parts: one we shall call the agent and the rest - its environment. Imagine you could describe in full detail the state of both the agent and the environment. The state of the agent is denoted M: it could be a Mind i... |
de10c332-2517-4024-9cc3-320b852642a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Adjectives from the Future: The Dangers of Result-based Descriptions
Less Skeptical
Suppose your friend tells you he's on a weight-loss program. What do you think will happen in three months if he keeps on the weight-loss program? Will he lose weight?
If you're like me, you're thinking, "Of course. He is on a weight-... |
114fd65c-1999-4916-b1e7-afc3a39e5e16 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEE NEW EDITS] No, *You* Need to Write Clearer
This post is aimed solely at people in AI alignment/safety.
EDIT 3 October 2023: This post did not even mention, let alone account for, how somebody should post half-baked/imperfect/hard-to-describe/fragile alignment ideas. Oops.
LessWrong as a whole is generally seen ... |
09cdc337-aca5-4941-9084-0ab5e1b6b23a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on Retrieving Knowledge from Neural Networks
Disclaimer: this post is a collection of preliminary thoughts around a specific question for MSFP'19 blogpost writing day. I do not intend to present novel results or define a research agenda.
1. Motivation
The capital of Mozambique is Maputo. This is a fact abou... |
67a4d96f-9b1b-4541-abfb-f9415f66c03b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Cyborg Periods: There will be multiple AI transitions
It can be useful to zoom out and talk about very compressed concepts like *‘AI progress’* or *‘AI transition’* or *‘AGI timelines’.* But from the perspective of most AI strategy questions, it’s useful to be more specific.
Looking at all of human history, it might ... |
6c36366a-b39c-49bc-988b-60e2cb90f17b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Good News: the Containment Measures are Working
After weeks and months of rather drastic measures we can see the glimpse of how the lockdowns are making a difference. Here are the snapshots from worldometer:
New cases dropping
New cases leveling off
New Cases switching from exponential to linear
Japan: no World... |
d4c7566b-146e-4733-ae45-3d3809f16171 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How does the world look like 10 years after we have deployed an aligned AGI?
Let's say that someone develops an aligned AGI in ~10 years. Instead of using its mental powers to wipe out all humans, it tries to produce science, art, and other things that we value. What are some of the changes that we would expect to se... |
a845cfc7-6c93-4c2b-a85f-46a1428837f8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Anyone want to debate publicly about FDT?
I have a [blog](https://benthams.substack.com/) and a YouTube channel. I recently expressed the view that FDT is crazy. IF anyone wants to have either a written or verbal debate about that, hit me up. Credit to Scott Alexander for this suggestion. |
d5a72e3b-b14d-4d28-b450-bde4b9f1a221 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anthropomorphic AI and Sandboxed Virtual Universes
Intro
The problem of Friendly AI is usually approached from a decision theoretic background that starts with the assumptions that the AI is an agent that has awareness of AI-self and goals, awareness of humans as potential collaborators and or obstacles, and general ... |
8748d30f-daf2-48af-8ce1-330fe8b6b65d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Genesis
Cross-posted from Putanumonit.
There a sense in which all posts I write are for myself, and not for my readers. In this sense, this post is more for myself than most.
Resolving reality in your mind feels no different than creating it
As The Book correctly points out, at first there is only chaos and formles... |
ca918739-1451-4451-b18e-23670d97c57e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Efficiently Combining Human Demonstrations and Interventions for Safe Training of Autonomous Systems in Real-Time
Introduction
------------
The primary goal of learning methodologies is to imbue intelligent agents with the capability to autonomously and successfully perform complex tasks, when *a priori* design of ... |
127ac21c-0d2a-4ab2-94df-2e08d7c9f071 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Boltzmann brain decision theory
Suppose I told you that you had many Boltzmann brain copies of you. Is it then your duty to be as happy as possible, so that these copies were also happy?
(Now some people might argue that you can't really make yourself happy through mental effort; but you can certainly make yourself s... |
136178d1-abdf-41ee-9693-5461533a6a54 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to make errands fun
Despite being a believer in outsourcing all tasks that cost less than my aspirational hourly rate, I regularly have to do such tasks when they're impractical to outsource. This is almost always, as the most outsourceable tasks are those that repeat often, but cannot be automated. Doing legwork ... |
bc9f363a-ee77-47a5-adc5-99fda5269ca4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Spoiler-Free Review: Orwell
Orwell is another game in the discrete-choices-over-time genre. In this case, you are an investigator, and choose which ‘datachunks’ to upload into the system. From there, others will take action.
Like other games in the genre, if you are going to play, play it blind.
I’d rank the game as... |
c3bc6913-ffd1-4d5e-92cf-1504bf095e17 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Press the happiness button!
tldr: some free ways to benefit others
Epistemic status: Some things I noticed, made up or let ChatGPT generate
Idea
What if you had a button that you could press to make other people happy? Pushing the button doesn’t cost you anything besides the negligible effort. How often would you p... |
50b0e478-ad0c-431e-8d88-b9724816d214 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Motivation gaps: Why so much EA criticism is hostile and lazy
Disclaimer: While I criticize several EA critics in this article, I am myself on the EA-skeptical side of things (especially on AI risk).
Introduction
I am a proud critic of effective altruism, and in particular a critic of AI existential risk, but I hav... |
daa07ca7-42c2-4605-816f-1e6f6b2e9fea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #5: Level One Bard
This was quite the week.
OpenAI announced that GPT-4 was now offering plug-ins, including Wolfram Alpha and one that hooks up to all of your accounts including your email. GPT-4 had been out for over a full week, so this was a clear, safe, deliberate pace.
Microsoft Research published a paper c... |
f3db429d-8447-4b28-b56c-7fefea2d8abb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Grokking “Forecasting TAI with biological anchors”
*Notes:*
* *I give a visual explanation of Ajeya Cotra’s draft report,* [*Forecasting TAI with biological anchors (Cotra, 2020)*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines)*, summarising the key assumptions, intuitions, and c... |
71bddb08-18da-4064-8519-a39a003a0f16 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Active Inference as a formalisation of instrumental convergence
The goal of this post is mainly to increase the exposure of the AI alignment community to Active Inference theory, which seems to be highly relevant to the problem but is seldom mentioned on the forum.
This post links to a freely available book about Act... |
f35388c2-18fe-4550-927e-503d89390ef6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What should a non-genius do in the face of rapid progress in GAI to ensure a decent life?
How can I maximise my chances of having a decent life, given the very high likelihood that GAI will make all our intellectual labour useless in the next few years?
For example, I graduated from a good university a few years ago ... |
640d53e4-6000-438c-a3bc-0befe6c00a73 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reductionism reading list
* Yudkowsky, Reductionism sequence (2008)
* Ladyman et al., Every Thing Must Go: Metaphysics Naturalized (2007)
* Bickle, Philosophy and Neuroscience: A Ruthlessly Reductive Account (2003)
* Bickle, 'Real Reduction in Real Neuroscience' (2008)
* Glimcher, Foundations of Neuroeconomic ... |
99dbd97e-2d19-463b-ae3c-4b69e602f469 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to un-kill your mind - maybe.
It has been the case since I had opinions on these things that I have struggled to identify my “favourite writer of all time”. I've thought perhaps it was Shakespeare, as everyone does – who composed over thirty plays in his lifetime, from any of which a single line would be so far... |
867052c1-898b-4edb-a8a5-70ac7f310009 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Nearest unblocked strategy
# Introduction
'Nearest unblocked strategy' seems like it should be a [foreseeable](https://arbital.com/p/6r) problem of trying to get rid of undesirable AI behaviors by adding specific penalty terms to them, or otherwise trying to exclude one class of observed or foreseen bad behaviors. N... |
d654f570-6b32-4b42-91a8-ae354a212587 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Solstice Album Crowdfunding
For several years, people have been singing songs at Solstice, and some of those songs have been recorded, but always as a live performance which means the quality isn't as good and the musicians are recording-in-one-take-that-includes-all-mistakes.
So, I'm finally putting together a profe... |
df03e3dc-15be-4ccf-8538-f62954194897 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Shortform" vs "Scratchpad" or other names
Within the next day or two, we'll be launching some features that give the "shortform" concept real infrastructural support. Shortform comments will appear on the All Posts page, on the new /shortform page, and it'll be easier to automatically generate a post to write shortfo... |
7ca8d67b-7097-4b3e-ab79-38fc75a6aee7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intuitive examples of reward function learning?
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Can you help find the most intuitive example of reward function learning?
In reward function learning, there is a set of possible non-negative reward functions, R, and a learning process ρ which takes in a history of actions and observations... |
e82e9c9a-ebfc-473d-929b-399cde7a6785 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Optimizing Agent Behavior over Long Time Scales by Transporting Value
The Reconstructive Memory Agent
-------------------------------
We solve this task with a vision and memory-based agent, which we name the *Reconstructive Memory Agent* (RMA) (Figure 1c), which is based on a previously published agent model[[20](... |
564e8a97-7cc2-44f2-a1b6-6e9963924f4a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Shahar Avin On How To Regulate Advanced AI Systems
[Shahar Avin](https://www.shaharavin.com/) is a senior researcher at the [Center for the Study of Existential Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/) in Cambridge. In his past life, he was a Google Engineer, though right now he spends most of his time thinking about how to pre... |
aa3ce52d-753b-4e89-99d3-257d6f4e422a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Share your requests for ChatGPT
Curious to see what are the most interesting questions you've asked ChatGPT to do, especially interested in red-teaming it or other requests that awed your expectations.
Few questions I asked ChatGPT that I was impressed by its responses were:
1) Write a story where humanity ... |
38bf0ba0-74d4-415c-afc3-cc5ab46df30c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?
Crossposted to EA Forum
While there have been many previous surveys asking about the chance of existential catastrophe from AI and/or AI timelines, none as far as I'm aware have asked about how the level of AI risk varies based on timelines. But this... |
d78021d7-3301-4c4f-9478-ab43c7fb24fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Adaptation-Executors, not Fitness Maximizers
Today's post, Adaptation-Executers, not Fitness-Maximizers was originally published on 11 November 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> A central principle of evolutionary biology in general, and evolutionary psychology in particular. If we regarded h... |
13ccc447-f97b-4720-a562-2b44f6c78913 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | It matters when the first sharp left turn happens
*Thanks to Evan Hubinger for comments on these ideas.*
Introduction
============
A “sharp left turn” is a point where [capabilities generalize beyond alignment](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/GNhMPAWcfBCASy8e6/a-central-ai-alignment-problem-capabilities-general... |
88210d63-ae83-4ad2-b724-66ed75d6c5f4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Rethinking and Recomputing the Value of ML Models
1 Introduction
---------------
A few position papers have recently begun to challenge the assumptions that have driven the notion of quality in Machine Learning (ML) Sayin et al. ([2021](#bib.bib53 "The science of rejection: a research area for human computation"));... |
e8d17f8a-714a-4111-bb2b-1882e471237e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bug Hunt - Lesserwrong/Lesswrong.com Browser Compatibility
As we get ready for the final move of lesserwrong.com to lesswrong.com, we're addressing various browser compatibility issues.
We've recently updated some compatibility tools that fixed several of the older bugs. If you've run into compatibility bugs in the ... |
9eea35ed-dc64-4340-b3b3-4cdc756cea74 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Risk Microdynamics Survey
If you are interested in AI Risk, could you kindly consider filling out a short (10 min) survey on Risk Microdynamics? The hope is that I will be able to use your responses to inform an economic model of that risk in the near future, which I think would fill an important gap in our underst... |
0d045924-dc8f-47a7-94d0-c532d35e000c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In favor of tabooing the word “values” and using only “priorities” instead
I don’t know if this is trivial/obvious or absurd or anything in between, so maybe you guys would like to help me judge?
The idea is simple. I’m confused by the term “values” in the moral and ethical sense. The way I often see it used, it make... |
5c8c82d1-39ee-4771-a17e-3c1c604d357c | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "(Sorry for the coy title--I want to give the reader a chance to guess what the addition is.) One day I opened up the front page of reddit. I was not signed in and I was using my browser's incognito mode.The following list composed about 25% of what I saw as I scrolled. See if you notice any themes. (As hinted by the t... |
21407d33-0313-4f21-a5a3-6bf66a36d868 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Convoy
This would have been in yesterday’s weekly post but I ran out of time, so I only got to it today. It seemed substantial enough to post on its own rather than wait a full six days, so here it is.
Reports are in from Canada. Looks like we got us a convoy. [NOTE: This post has been extensively edited to reflect t... |
45ac4450-ea2c-461b-9922-9e18f3a7e50b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Forecasting transformative AI: the "biological anchors" method in a nutshell
*Audio also available by searching Stitcher, Spotify, Google Podcasts, etc. for "Cold Takes Audio"*
[Today’s world
Transformative AI
Digital people
World of
Misaligned AI
World run by
Something else
or
or
Stable, galax... |
9ce01d5f-128a-43f6-93c1-f8d2d5b97381 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "What is true of one apple may not be true of another apple; thus more can be said about a single apple than about all the apples in the world.—“The Twelve Virtues of Rationality”Within their own professions, people grasp the importance of narrowness; a car mechanic knows the difference between a carburetor and a radia... |
8e773476-09fc-4d36-8b83-32f4e8995cda | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the FLI Open Letter
The Future of Life Institute (FLI) recently put out an open letter, calling on all AI labs to immediately pause for at least 6 months the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4.
There was a great flurry of responses, across the spectrum. Many were for it. Many others were against it. S... |
8729300d-fd18-4d16-a6e3-d014635b94a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI as a powerful meme, via CGP Grey
In episode 158 of the Cortex podcast, CGP Grey gives their high-level reason why they are worried about AI.
My one line summary: AI should not be compared to nuclear weapons but instead to biological weapons or memes, which evolve under the implicit evolutionary pressures that exis... |
d244673b-9c87-4f76-8757-6edb92b50538 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decision Auctions aka "How to fairly assign chores, or decide who gets the last cookie"
After moving in with my new roomies (Danny and Bethany of Beeminder), I discovered they have a fair and useful way of auctioning off joint decisions. It helps you figure out how much you value certain chores or activities, and it g... |
7f8efe81-9a04-4d64-b029-519fd0a3b04a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Join the interpretability research hackathon
TLDR; Participate online or in-person in London, Aarhus, and Tallinn on the weekend 11th to 13th November in a fun and intense AI safety research hackathon focused on interpretability research. We invite mid-career professionals to join but it is open for everyone (also no-... |
1ef8a299-32ce-4e46-be61-f36e93de0eb1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Straw-Steelmanning
I've noticed that when people are asked to "Steelman" a position, they sometimes instead do what I would call "Straw-Steelmanning". Someone can also straw-steelman without having been asked to steelman or having said that they would do so.
What is straw-steelmanning? Assume someone makes an argume... |
5a850690-d8b1-4853-b688-2edc2a01d84a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Perspective Based Reasoning Could Absolve CDT
I have been advocating perspective-based reasoning (PBR) as the solution to anthropic paradoxes for the past few years. Here I would like to explore its implication on the decision theory side, most notably how it could absolve the shortcomings of CDT.
The concept of PBR ... |
4860230b-2abf-4b5b-9662-07e0e766da32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna
Discussion article for the meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna
WHEN: 14 May 2016 03:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Kaisermühlenstraße 24, Wien
FB Event: https://www.facebook.com/events/272339816432545/ (join the Rationality Vienna Group to see it)
Discussion article for the meetup : Rati... |
79ff1e3c-0f60-4393-a5f2-83e9da5b6f79 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quantum Darwinism, social constructs, and the scientific method
[Cross-posted from my blog https://www.pchvykov.com/blog]
TL;DR: All three of these are centered around the idea of consensus reality – that reproducibility, or redundancy of consistent records, is what makes something "objectively true." Slight deviatio... |
640a5c6e-7f89-4a82-b1c4-1db92cc424fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Logical Inductors that trust their limits
Here is another open question related to Logical Inductors. I have not thought about it very long, so it might be easy.
Does there exist a logical inductor {Pn} over PA such that for all ϕ:
1. PA proves that P∞(ϕ) exists and is in [0,1], and
2. En(P∞(ϕ))≂nPn(ϕ)?
--------... |
4a3af4a2-a6d2-48fe-9cc1-c696d778c7e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a LessWrong-adjacent place to hire freelancers/seek freelance work?
I've posted a similar question before: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YyEiPQH8snk4h8BfK/who-is-available-for-contract-work-a-la-the-hacker-news-who
I'm wondering if there's a place that has a decently high volume (10+ a month) of posting... |
d37e8cf2-770b-4f23-a67f-135188b85895 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Positive values seem more robust and lasting than prohibitions
*Originally* [*a shortform comment*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dqSwccGTWyBgxrR58/turntrout-s-shortform-feed?commentId=cMs3hAyfsdLr7YRv3)*.*
Imagine we train an AI on realistic situations where it can kill people, and penalize it when it does so. Sup... |
7184c28a-d920-4c2f-9790-c7a9d7f28e4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You are invited to apply to the Guild of the ROSE
The Guild of the R.O.S.E. is an organization dedicated to improving the world, created by rationalists, for rationalists. We provide a support structure of a small Cohort for you to join, and a wider Guild to learn from.
As a member you will attend weekly classes usin... |
26be5d72-0864-4f79-a15a-c50fc6b1154e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Communicating Clearly
Communicating Clearly
---------------------
it is important to avoid, as i've noticed notably conspiracy theorists often do, attribute special importance or personal/alternate meanings to commonly used words. the goal of language is in general to communicate with the recipients.
i've taken, i... |
dc579511-925e-4b6e-8ccf-e0ff4b5174a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) transfer across base and finetuned language models?
This is a project submission post for the AI Safety Fundamentals course from BlueDot Impact. Therefore, some of its sections are intended to be beginner-friendly and overly verbose for familiar readers (mainly the Introduction section) a... |
05faae48-f492-4301-84f4-431eae046c91 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Israel Less Wrong Meetup: Brains and Biology
Discussion article for the meetup : Israel Less Wrong Meetup: Brains and Biology
WHEN: 23 October 2014 07:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Google Tel-Aviv
We're going to have a meetup on Thursday, October 23rd at Google Israel's offices, Electra Tower, 98 Yigal Alon st., ... |
98ab2ce1-7496-4bea-b172-2e1e5a2c8208 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Being at peace with Doom
You can be at peace even when thinking the world is doomed. And while at peace you can still work against that Doom, even while being aware that nothing you do will make a difference. I believe there are states of mind like this that can be inhabited by humans.
Here I am not going to argue fo... |
b870af30-35ff-4723-b669-b65d03e60500 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | POLL: Reductionism
Since there is no handy toll to create polls on LW, please post comments on your position.
As which of the following would you identify yourself? (I am not good at rationalist taboo, thus please excuse me for ambiguous terms.)
Strong ontological reductionst
See defintion on Wikipedia. Someone who... |
23f567b3-bdad-4dc4-b938-b92ae84d818b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Extraction of human preferences 👨→🤖
**Introduction**
================
Developing safe and beneficial reinforcement learning (RL) agents requires making them aligned with human preferences. An RL agent trained to fulfil any objective in the real world will probably have to learn human preferences in order to do wel... |
d17f0a06-b0c6-4aac-9c54-87c52b2043d9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | Why would intelligence lead to power?
One might say that “Intelligence is no match for a gun, or for someone with lots of money,” but both guns and money were produced by intelligence. If not for our intelligence, humans would still be foraging the savannah for food.
Intelligence is what caused humans to dominate the... |
0d4abee5-fcb9-4b14-af71-863d9f086f3c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (A -> B) -> A
This post is about following type signature, which I call the type of agency: (A→B)→A. You can also think of it as consequentialism or doing things on purpose. This post will be a rant with a bunch of random thoughts related to this type signature, and it will likely not make sense. It will also be slopp... |
75d2a518-c10e-4901-85d3-9981796d5e2e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Good news about the Big Bang
(Disclaimer: very poor knowledge of physics here, just interpreting the article)
http://www.physorg.com/print209708826.html
- looks like there are many of them, as non-creationists would expect
The really good news is
> In the past, Penrose has investigated cyclic cosmology models beca... |
aeed5e4c-636e-4302-943e-26adb5a756b0 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Many adults maintain their intelligence through a dedication to study or hard work. I suspect this is related to sub-optimal levels of careful introspection among intellectuals.
If someone asks you what you want for yourself in life, do you have the answer ready at hand? How about what you want for others? Human value... |
bfcf0191-b530-4e5b-8aaa-8a15c7b90f0b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bi-Weekly Rational Feed
===Highly Recommended Articles:
Superintelligence Risk Project Update II by Jeff Kaufman - Jeff's thoughts and the sources he found most useful. Project is wrapping up in a few day. Topics: Technical Distance to AI. Most plausible scenarios of Superintelligence risk. OpenPhil's notes on how pr... |
82fe1c38-8020-4e89-9ee6-13d4f2969c2f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fireplace and Candle Smoke
We celebrated New Year's Eve at my dad's, including a fire in the fireplace. I was curious how much the wood smoke went up the chimney vs collecting in the room, and decided to take some measurements. I used the M2000 that I got when investigating whether a ceiling fan could be repurposed as... |
1479e37b-d7b9-48b5-ae46-263f3e4fa627 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Stop Button Solution? - Computerphile
a while back we were talking about
uh the stop button problem right you
have this you have this
uh it's kind of a toy problem in ai
safety you have an artificial general
intelligence in a robot it wants
something you know it wants to make you
a cup of tea or whatever you put a big... |
4669c6f6-7317-436c-a8ec-32b9f4179b99 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI Twitter accounts to follow?
Hello,
I've been lurking on the forum for a while, but am trying to get more involved.
Just curious, is there a list of "must follow" twitter accounts in the AI world? People talk about "Science Twitter" or "AI Twitter" as if there is some canonical cluster of accounts where everythi... |
6e1196da-6ae0-46c7-b0eb-d3fe602ff45d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Trace: Goals and Principles
In terms of research, I decided to devote the month of February mainly to foundations and tools. One project was to come up with a notation/language/framework which matches the way I’ve been thinking about computation - i.e. [DAGs with symmetry](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mZy6AMgCw9CPj... |
026a29f5-7147-4190-ba17-ad28ff3619c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Low hanging fruits (LWCW 2020)
During Less Wrong Community Week-end (Europe), in one event people share low-hanging fruit they used. I chaired it this year and defined low-hanging fruit as something that can be easily bought or done that improved the life. Here is the list of fruits shared in 2020. All typos are mine.... |
6c04798f-374f-45b9-8d7c-bf24911314b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] The Two-Party Swindle
Today's post, The Two-Party Swindle was originally published on 01 January 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Voters for either political party usually have more in common with each other than they do for the politicians they vote for. And yet, they support their own "tea... |
ffb3d806-f354-4388-a408-327e44c42018 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stop arbitrarily limiting yourself
Crossposted from my blog
My roommate types with one finger; he literally only uses his right index finger. I made him do a typing test and his WPM turned out to be around 30-40, which is honestly higher than I thought it’d be.
When I first noticed this, I immediately thought: he’s ... |
161aaf0e-727e-4042-9e4b-44efbee9a466 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the best way to talk about probabilities you expect to change with evidence/experiments?
I was thinking about my p(doom) in the next 10 years and came up with something around 6%[1]. However that involves lots of current unknowns to me, like the nature of current human knowledge production (and the bottle neck... |
c2bea778-deb2-47ef-a4d6-fe8395f58b64 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing: Missing Link of the Dutch Book Arguments
Assumed background: Acyclic preferences, Dutch Book theorems
There are fairly elementary arguments that, in the absence of uncertainty, any preferences not described by a utility function are problematic - this is the circular preferen... |
8c3819f6-7d9d-48f2-b24d-11da43da17ac | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models
1 Introduction
---------------
Language provides a natural domain for the study of artificial intelligence, as the vast majority of reasoning tasks can be efficiently expressed and evaluated in language, and the world’s text provides a wealth of data for unsupervised learning... |
38bac20e-0ba2-48e2-b5c8-f640de5968ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Meetup : San Antonio Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Meetup : San Antonio Meetup
WHEN: 30 August 2015 12:30:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Yumi Berry, 12651 Vance Jackson Rd Suite #118 San Antonio Tx, 78230
Bubble tea, frozen yogurt, and discussion at Yumi Berry! All are welcome!
New Meetup to discuss ra... |
62b9185e-9f50-4401-8d49-69fec542a041 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The January 2013 CFAR workshop: one-year retrospective
About a year ago, I attended my first CFAR workshop and wrote a post about it here. I mentioned in that post that it was too soon for me to tell if the workshop would have a large positive impact on my life. In the comments to that post, I was asked to follow up o... |
26d8d1a3-833d-4a2c-9205-3aed478c0ecb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | June 2020 Newsletter
MIRI researcher Evan Hubinger reviews “[11 different proposals for building safe advanced AI under the current machine learning paradigm](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/fRsjBseRuvRhMPPE5/an-overview-of-11-proposals-for-building-safe-advanced-ai)”, comparing them on outer alignment, inner ali... |
9f199ab8-3938-4336-9ff1-da0a2c8bb755 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Abstractions as morphisms between (co)algebras
In a previous post, I suggested we should think of abstractions/ontologies as maps that make a certain commutative diagram commute:
The downward arrows are the abstraction, which throws away some information about the world state while keeping other parts. The horizontal... |
cd2074ec-31c5-4da7-9ad2-11091d7624ba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Practical AI risk I: Watching large compute
This post is going to lay out a practical and simple strategy to diminish risk of AI catastrophe.
I have voiced my uncertainty (but certainly not dismissal) about AI risk several times in the community, which I will briefly summarize:
(1) Technology has likely physical lim... |
32675dec-9fa3-49d3-bf57-58c46a96338b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quantopian contest, but for food intake and weight
Twelve years ago, I lost 100 lbs. in a fairly boring manner by eating 1200 calories a day. Brutally unpleasant and catabolic, but mostly successful. It's creeping back. There are no low-hanging fruits like sugarwater, fast food, eating out. The core problem is my sati... |
18c138ab-df83-4abe-86d8-c51d879f33ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Houston Hackerspace Meetup: Sunday May 22, 5:00PM
Sunday May 22, 5:00PM
TX/RX Hackerspace
2010 Commerce St
Houston, TX 77002
Goals:
In general, to become more awesome. In specific, to learn about cognitive biases as a group, figure out how to become less wrong, and have fun while doing it. We also may experime... |
8caf6c7a-479e-41ff-ab1a-fc8bdbecb7da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SSRIs: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
The claim that “SSRIs don’t work” or “SSRIs are mostly just placebo” is most commonly associated with Irving Kirsch, a man with the awesome job title of “Associate Director Of The Program For Placebo Studies at Harvard”.
(fun fact: there’s actually no such thing as “Placebo St... |
5c393d4e-a096-4f45-90fb-cf8fe66fdb28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A widely shared AI productivity paper was retracted, is possibly fraudulent
Confidence notes: I am a physicist working on computational material science, so I have some familiarity with the field, but don't know much about R&D firms or economics. Some of the links in this article were gathered from a post at pivot-to-... |
a6ae5850-56a8-4bdc-ac5b-38cd5d061983 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scientific Notation Options
When working with numbers that span many orders of magnitude it's very helpful to use some form of scientific notation. At its core, scientific notation expresses a number by breaking it down into a decimal ≥1 and <10 (the "significand" or "mantissa") and an integer representing the order o... |
1d70497c-2a59-41db-a6ed-31f31d3201b0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Papers for 2017
I had three new papers either published or accepted into publication last year; all of them are now available online:
* **How Feasible is the Rapid Development of Artificial Superintelligence?** *Physica Scripta 92* (11), 113001.
+ *Abstract:* What kinds of fundamental limits are there in how capabl... |
1494ddb9-3922-44cd-b8a5-1b41310c6573 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Berkeley: The Motivation Hacker by Nick Winter
Discussion article for the meetup : Berkeley: The Motivation Hacker by Nick Winter
WHEN: 29 May 2013 07:30:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: Berkeley, CA
Dear all, this week Swimmer963 will give a presentation on Nick Winter's new book The Motivation Hacker:
http://www.nic... |
b13390c3-eaad-4fb9-b3f2-74c1fafc5a8f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Visualizing and Understanding Convolutional Networks
Visualizing and Understanding
Convolutional Networks
Matthew D. Zeiler and Rob Fergus
Dept. of Computer Science,
New York University, USA
{zeiler,fergus }@cs.nyu.edu
Abstract. Large Convolutional Network models have recently demon-
strated impressive classification p... |
80620441-0ab9-4038-9c50-6e7eae53a461 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : [Cambridge] How To Do Everything
Discussion article for the meetup : [Cambridge] How To Do Everything
WHEN: 05 May 2013 02:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 21 Ames St, Cambridge, MA
This meetup will focus on practical skills for organizing and motivating yourself to accomplish short-term goals. We’ll have a handful ... |
e2efd7c4-efee-4b7b-842b-05f3679d0b9f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | dm_control: Software and Tasks for Continuous Control
#### Overview
A public colab notebook with a tutorial for dm\_control software is available [here](https://colab.sandbox.google.com/github/deepmind/dm_control/blob/master/tutorial.ipynb).
##### Infrastructure
* An autogenerated MuJoCo Python wrapper provides ful... |
91999e4e-364c-4107-b6e1-c8fab2d73482 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 'oy, girls on lw, want to get together some time?'
2:45:24 PM Katja Grace: The main thing that puts me off in online dating profiles is lack of ambition to save the world
2:45:35 PM Katja Grace: Or do anything much
2:48:03 PM Michael Blume: *nods*
2:48:07 PM Michael Blume: this is indeed a problem
2:57:55 PM Katja Gra... |
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