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6b718cf9-81a2-4b69-9672-120ca97cb9cd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AIã®ã¿ã€ã ã©ã€ã³ â ææ¡ãããŠããè«èšŒãšãå°é家ãã®ç«ã¡äœçœ®
*This is a Japanese translation of â*[***AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Stand***](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7JxsXYDuqnKMqa6Eq/ai-timelines-where-the-arguments-and-the-experts-stand)*â*
by [Holden Karnofsky](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/use... |
c6e8eef7-4245-497e-8e3e-83e1601c1a90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Future of Science
(Talk given at an event on Sunday 19th of July_. Richard Ngo is responsible for the talk, Jacob Lagerros and David Lambert edited the transcript. _
If you're a curated author and interested in giving a 5-min talk, which will then be transcribed and edited, sign up here_.)Â _
Richard Ngo: I'll be... |
cc6853d6-2fc2-4849-8001-1175f9a47af0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Moral Mazes and Short Termism
Previously: [Short Termism](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/03/04/short-termism/) and [Quotes from Moral Mazes](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/05/30/quotes-from-moral-mazes/)
Epistemic Status: Long term
My list of [quotes from moral mazes](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/05/30/... |
edfd6fa4-d146-4f01-960c-86d9e880831e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Links and short notes, 2025-01-20
Much of this content originated on social media. To follow news and announcements in a more timely fashion, follow me on Twitter, Threads, Bluesky, or Farcaster.
Contents
* My writing (ICYMI)
* Jobs and fellowships
* Announcements
* News
* Events
* Other opportunities
* We ar... |
369f9e65-777a-4ed2-803e-adfd20851d98 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Getting Nearer
Reply to:Â A Tale Of Two Tradeoffs
I'm not comfortable with compliments of the direct, personal sort, the "Oh, you're such a nice person!" type stuff that nice people are able to say with a straight face. Even if it would make people like me more - even if it's socially expected - I have trouble bring... |
62c67a0b-edcc-44ef-a461-317c176b95ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should I take an IQ test, why or why not?
I've seen discussion of IQ tests around LW. People imply there's a benefit to taking the test. I assume it is related to belief in belief or something. Can anyone flesh out this argument? |
53d7a5d7-e949-4b59-b9e0-dbbfaceb4dc4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Asymmetric Weapons Aren't Always on Your Side
Some time ago, Scott Alexander wrote about asymmetric weapons, and now he writes again about them. During these posts, Scott repeatedly characterizes asymmetric weapons as inherently stronger for the "good guys" than they are for the "bad guys". Here is a quote from his fi... |
27d83e4d-90c1-40a3-ac32-8b4688a9accd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LINK: Ben Goertzel; Does Humanity Need an "AI-Nanny"?
Link: Ben Goertzel dismisses Yudkowsky's FAI and proposes his own solution: Nanny-AI
Â
Some relevant quotes:
> Itâs fun to muse about designing a âFriendly AIâ a la Yudkowsky, that is guaranteed (or near-guaranteed) to maintain a friendly ethical system as it se... |
1e3e49fc-d10e-4bcd-89a8-7c2e646a7438 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Premature Word on AI
Followup to:Â A.I. Old-Timers, Do Scientists Already Know This Stuff?
In response to Robin Hanson's post on the disillusionment of old-time AI researchers such as Roger Schank, I thought I'd post a few premature words on AI, even though I'm not really ready to do so:
Anyway:
I never expected ... |
35729ccc-89e1-424e-8578-0aff8aac96db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Vancouver, Canada
Discussion article for the meetup : Vancouver, Canada
WHEN: 31 July 2011 03:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: Commune Cafe, 1002 Seymour Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada
We're holding the first Vancouver meetup on Sunday, July 31st starting at 3pm at the Commune Cafe on Seymour Street. We'll definitely... |
724ada9b-fd3b-4d65-91ee-5db600cbb8db | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Reading books vs. engaging with them
Letâs say youâre interested in a 500-page serious nonfiction book, and youâre trying to decide whether to read it. I think most people imagine their choice something like this:
| | | |
| --- | --- | --- |
| **Option** | **Time cost** | **% that I understand and retain** |
... |
702d1f26-d1f1-43ba-8c41-d88eba9af097 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking book about baseline life planning and expectations
In an attempt to find useful "base rate expectations" for the rest of my life (and how actions I might take now could set me up to be much better off 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70 years from now) I'm looking for a book that describes the nuts and bolts of hum... |
cbb3e106-0f63-46a9-948c-ca1105ce3a6f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What organizations other than Conjecture have (esp. public) info-hazard policies?
I believe Anthropic has said they won't publish capabilities research?
OpenAI seems to be sort of doing the same (although no policy AFAIK).
I heard FHI was developing one way back when...
I think MIRI sort of does as well (default... |
81a19415-7cf3-455e-afcb-13aca084ad0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Information Theory vs Harry Potter [LINK]
http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/mackay/itila/Potter.html
Somebody hasn't heard of HPMOR... |
90009446-0b9c-40a3-ae9d-be76761ae4c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Brain Emulation and Hard Takeoff
Today's post, Brain Emulation and Hard Takeoff was originally published on November 22, 2008. A summary:
Â
> A project of bots could start an intelligence explosion once it got fast enough to start making bots of the engineers working on it, that would be able to operate ... |
6f7a21b5-6584-4629-a1f7-cd9190de21bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Long Review: Economic Hierarchies
Naked and Afraid from the Discovery Channel didnât live up to its potential. To be fair, a handful of scraggly naked people trying to make it in Kenyaâs wilderness made for interesting television, as they scratched themselves, got infections, and looked pretty uncomfortable. But the i... |
2ec6f2db-6e54-49bd-b12f-d3b0be76e352 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Training a GPT model on EA texts: what data?
I plan to finetune GPT-J, a large language model similar to GPT-3 creative by EleutherAI, on effective altruism texts. GPT-J is known to be better at mathematical, logical, and analytic reasoning than GPT-3 due to a large training on academic texts.
The goals are:
1. **Ac... |
e05f525a-0ec2-4cc3-9930-3d6c576ceb87 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [POLL] LessWrong group on YourMorals.org
Here's the news article on this: http://www.yourmorals.org/blog/2011/11/how-to-use-groups-at-yourmorals-org/
And here's the group that the LW community just created:Â http://www.yourmorals.org/setgraphgroup.php?grp=623d5410f705f6a1f92c83565a3cfffc
I think it will be very inter... |
13c7b17d-b4d0-4b3d-8d7c-825e0895d8e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How We Picture Bayesian Agents
I think that when most people picture a Bayesian agent, they imagine a system which:
* Enumerates every possible state/trajectory of âthe worldâ, and assigns a probability to each.
* When new observations come in, loops over every state/trajectory, checks the probability of the observ... |
80cb512e-8510-41cc-97f1-683a00dc877b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My weekly review habit
Every Saturday morning, I take 3-4 hours to think about how my week went and how Iâll make the next one better.
The format has changed over time, but for example, hereâs some of what I reflected on last week:
* I noticed Iâd fallen far short of my goal for written output. I decided to allocat... |
3a5789ec-c67b-456f-b420-b2379dd3c09a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Ethics of ACI
ACI is a universal intelligence model based on the idea "behaves the same way as experiences". It may seem counterintuitive that ACI agents have no ultimate goals, nor do they have to maximize any utility functions. People may argue that ACI has no ethics, thus it canât be a general intelligence mode... |
a698c9df-2620-435f-8581-49854b8ae23d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Pragmatic Epistemology
For the past three thousand years epistemology has been about the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Philosophers and scientists have continuously attempted to pinpoint the nature of truth, to find general logico-syntactic criteria for generating justified inferences, and to di... |
6a82a0bf-5bf2-4642-a2b5-b9a798799d44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [CORE] Concepts for Understanding the World
Background:
I'm recently doing a big project to increase my scholarship and modeling power for both rationality and traditional "serious" topics. One thing I found very useful is taking notes with a clear structure.
The structure I'm using currently is as follows:
- write... |
cee1e271-d926-4c50-b3fe-62e5d28d368a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The simple picture on AI safety
At every company I've ever worked at, I've had to distill whatever problem I'm working on to something incredibly simple. Only then have I been able to make real progress. In my current role, at an autonomous driving company, I'm working in the context of a rapidly growing group that is... |
3500d842-0664-4e54-8d83-4059107a930c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [Preprint] Pretraining Language Models with Human Preferences
Surprised no one posted about this from Anthropic, NYU and Uni of Sussex yet:
* Instead of fine-tuning on human-preferences, they directly incorporate human feedback in the pre-training phase, conditioning the model on <good> or <bad> feedback tokens place... |
6e9641b7-559c-4d17-81f0-6eb604d4e820 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK]Real time mapping of neural activity in a larval zebra fish
https://plus.google.com/109794669788083578017/posts/gLgSnkCtgrR
> Brain function relies on communication between large populations of neurons across multiple brain areas, a full understanding of which would require knowledge of the time-varying activit... |
5a366e19-92c0-443d-b613-4f62cdd26518 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Complex Systems for AI Safety [Pragmatic AI Safety #3]
*This is the third post in* [*a sequence of posts*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/bffA9WC9nEJhtagQi/introduction-to-pragmatic-ai-safety-pragmatic-ai-safety-1) *that describe our models for Pragmatic AI Safety.*
It is critical to steer the AI research field... |
705f6e73-6112-44b9-ab3e-a8dfc9cf0caa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Advertise while honoring the dead
Roadside suggestions not to kill yourself driving seem to be getting more humorous around here, which suggests that someone is trying to improve them. The best advertisements for careful driving Iâve seen are the little white stick crosses tied to trees and telegraph poles with wither... |
7db1583a-490e-4eaa-815d-8dedf3f738c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A case for donating to AI risk reduction (including if you work in AI)
I work on Open Philanthropyâs AI Governance and Policy team, but Iâm writing this in my personal capacity â several senior employees at Open Phil have argued with me about this!
This is a brief-ish post addressed to people who are interested in ma... |
d4d2d0a5-f98e-4882-ad4c-eb6453fad8c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is anyone else frustrated with 'un-informative' post titles?
The latest post that finally impelled me to ask this question:
* A problem and three ideas - LessWrong
This isn't specific to that post and, having noticed that it is a cross-post, I can appreciate that this is (at least somewhat) tricky to improve, but a... |
165d1b33-59c9-4f7b-b2bb-52c60c8e4e7e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bias in capital project decision making
This is a story about an odd fact about capital project decision making in engineering I noticed and how it might be related to cognitive biases
Background
Although I don't work in the field, I was trained as a chemical engineer. A chemical engineer's job is a little differe... |
4a5979e3-3f79-4f6c-8f6a-356547e0b3a3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Distance Functions are Hard
*[Epistemic status: Describes a failed research approach I had a while ago, and my only purpose here is to warn people off from that way of thinking. Every now and then I see someone working on an AIS subproblem say "if only we had a distance function for things in domain X", and my intuiti... |
7e9a31ad-597c-49b8-9de6-96322765b962 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can you prove that 0 = 1?
Of course, 0 is not equal to 1. But certain interpretations of quantum mechanics imply that a thing can be one way and be the opposite way at the same time. Any mathematical proof rests on axioms. What I'm looking for is a proof that 0 = 1 which rests on axioms that are being actively debated... |
4693e1ef-2a52-4fdc-9160-eba8aeb5b0ec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are some things you would do (more) if you were less averse to being/looking weird?
I had forgotten I had asked this question already, and I asked it again here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mengYutEGfzyeA6Xi/what-would-you-do-differently-if-you-were-less-concerned |
42a65be6-93ac-4aec-87a6-1d9af8ad7da3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Early Thoughts on Ontology/Grounding Problems
These all seem to be pointing to different aspects of the same problem.
* Cross-ontology goal translation: given a utility function over a latent variable in one model, find an equivalent utility function over latent variables in another model with a different ontology. O... |
21cdedf3-827e-46a3-bc46-eb730809ab06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | PredictIt, a prediction market out of New Zealand, now in beta.
From their website:
> PredictIt is an exciting new, real money site that tests your knowledge of political and financial events by letting you make and trade predictions on the future.
>
> Taking part in PredictIt is simple and easy. Pick an event you k... |
18d3d3ad-87d3-4f78-b3f9-3803868b167a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | OpenAI: Leaks Confirm the Story
Previously: OpenAI: Altman Returns, OpenAI: The Battle of the Board, OpenAI: Facts from a Weekend, additional coverage in AI#41.
We have new stories from The New York Times, from Time, from the Washington Post and from Business Insider.
All paint a picture consistent with the central ... |
ff079cf1-1deb-4b74-a522-6125446dad31 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Brain Preservation Foundation's Small Mammalian Brain Prize won
The Brain Preservation Foundationâs Small Mammalian Brain Prize has been won with fantastic preservation of a whole rabbit brain using a new fixative+slow-vitrification process.
* BPF announcement (21CMâs announcement)
* evaluation
* The process w... |
68e167f4-f112-4249-872a-935104ac6cf4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We have some evidence that masks work
by Gavin Leech and Charlie Rogers-Smith
Our work on masks vs COVID at the population level was recently reproduced with a bunch of additional experiments. These seem to cast doubt on our results, but we think that each of them is misguided. Since the post got some traction on LW ... |
7b4f5dbc-568f-4b31-ad78-3adb01ecddd5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
WHEN: 19 July 2015 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery
We'll be meeting to play games and/or not and just hang out and talk, whichever seems more fun (notice fun comes before games in the title).... |
575c2fa8-8e18-4500-bef8-65537ec87184 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Junk Fees, Bunding and Unbundling
Joe Biden harped on junk fees during the State of the Union. While I do not think it is the problem of our time, I take things in the reference class of resort fees, or fees to have adjacent seats on an airplane, and other such unbundling (and bundling) surprisingly seriously. I am pu... |
2a6470dd-fcd5-49d7-8ea5-1996ff49f8ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna
Discussion article for the meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna
WHEN: 15 August 2015 03:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: KaisermÃŒhlenstraÃe 24/2, Wien
FB event: https://www.facebook.com/events/670741589694482/ (join the "Rationality Vienna" group to see it!)
Location http://web.student.tuwie... |
c44744da-8e10-4e2d-a69c-785b8db2d17d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is it the case that when humans approximate backward induction they violate the markov property?
Backward induction is the process of reasoning backwards in time, from the end of a problem or situation, to determine a sequence of optimal actions.
Backward induction is used to solve Bellman equations in dynamic progr... |
a5450eb8-9c57-4415-a869-c07b27b2f44e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Improving Code Generation by Training with Natural Language Feedback
1 Introduction
---------------
An important task for the field of software engineering is program synthesis, the automatic generation of computer programs from an input specification (*e.g.* a natural language task description or a set of input-ou... |
a23c78a3-2943-43e6-9505-b0e7ff35cbab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Has there been a "memetic collapse"?
I want to know if there has actually been a "memetic collapse" along the lines described here and here.
Does anyone have evidence or arguments in either direction? Or even ideas for how we would be able to tell? |
c796e02d-d06d-4b9e-a42b-1885c33b5299 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to the Washington, DC Slate Star Codex Meetup
What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do?
We meet 1-2 times per month to eat snacks and talk about SSC and other rationality-adjacent topics. Sometimes we have dinner or game nights. Join the Google Group if you would like monthly u... |
f235df6e-c17f-423d-85f0-a759c92ac00e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes April 2014
Another month has passed and here is a new rationality quotes thread. The usual rules are:
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post th... |
56227391-125c-44db-b36e-b93673442fdf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Looking for information on scoring calibration
There are lots of scoring rules for probability assessments. Log scoring is popular here, and squared error also works.
But if I understand these correctly, they are combined measurements of both domain-ability and calibration. For example, if several people took a test ... |
96095f4e-8281-47a9-962d-f02e986b769d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Addendum to applicable advice
Original post:Â http://bearlamp.com.au/addendum-to-applicable-advice/
(part 1:Â http://bearlamp.com.au/applicable-advice/)
----------------------------------------
If you see advice in the wild and think somethings along the lines of "that can't work for me", that's a cached thought. Â It ... |
1f4bb8ad-ca83-4fdf-af7e-491a015bd08a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think
Today's post, We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think was originally published on 03 October 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
Â
> We all change our minds occasionally, but we don't constantly, honestly reevaluate every decision and course of acti... |
adb4a5df-645b-4bce-976b-457046fdb234 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Revelation and mathematics
The mind of the enlightenment era mathematician might have been the ultimate tool ever devised for creating pointless and convoluted connections between pi and everything else.
i - Secret based religion
There are certain Buddhist traditions, e.g. Dzogchen, in which "enlightenment" or some ... |
c50b3a49-7a83-4740-a9eb-a3571166a9d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mathematical Mindset
I agree that optimization amplifies things. I also agree that a mathematical mindset is important for AI alignment. I don't, however, think that a "mathematical mindset" is the same as a "proof mindset". Rather, I think that the latter is closer to being a "programming mindset" -- or, indeed, a "... |
94d21533-a7a3-4bfd-83cc-9d98abf2753b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Big Community Solstice
In 2011, Ray started a tradition in the broader rationalist community of having a gathering around the winter solstice. As the person who started the thing, if he says we should do it differently I'm going to pay attention. But on the other hand I disagree with this pretty strongly:
> "Big Sols... |
22ea2dac-49a4-4a69-ad69-7e88fd26926f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Using the Karma system to call for a show of hands - profitable?
Not saying its a efficient use of time for the Karma hoarder, but I do wonder if it generally is a reliable way to gain karma. We sometimes see a call for a show of hands here where a comment is up voted by those that agree and a later comment is down vo... |
8846afe2-7617-4751-b330-88ec19547767 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: On Intelligence by Jeff Hawkins (and Sandra Blakeslee)
On Intelligence is a book I've read as part of my quest to understand neuroscience. It attempts to develop a unified theory of the neocortex meant to serve as a blueprint for Artificial Intelligence. I think of the book as being structured into three ... |
e8c6e634-192c-4b16-b12d-6fc649d7300b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self-experiment: A supraphysiological dosage of testosterone.
Unfortunately, I haven't found a good way to conduct a long-term self-experiment in which I observe the effect a supraphysiological weekly dosage of testosterone has on me. However, I think I found a decent alternative.
Firstly, some stats:
21y/o male, su... |
20d483d7-2053-4a1f-92e2-a54d613d6086 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | [Fiction] Improved Governance on the Critical Path to AI Alignment by 2045.
Summary: This post showcases [my finalist entry in the Future of Life Institute's AI worldbuilding contest](https://worldbuild.ai/W-0000000088/). Â It imagines:
1. How we might make big improvements to decisionmaking via mechanisms like [futar... |
20645e5b-0a0f-4534-84ee-e1f4427cc44c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Torture vs. Dust Specks
"What's the worst that can happen?" goes the optimistic saying. It's probably a bad question to ask anyone with a creative imagination. Let's consider the problem on an individual level: it's not really the worst that can happen, but would nonetheless be fairly bad, if you were horribly tortu... |
d8976eb0-b368-43fb-b28a-c7bbb86bc833 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thank you for triggering me
This essay is the first in a series on why turning towards what activates us is the path to setting ourselves free. The rest of the series will feature modalities & tools for working with our triggers and welcoming suppressed emotions.
Turning inward â taking our shadows, insecurities, and... |
6a8907d1-2b34-41e8-838c-84eaf4bd9272 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Am I secretly excited for AI getting weird?
This post is arguably darker than my other one. I don't make any persuasive arguments about AI forecasting here; if you don't feel like looking at doominess, feel free to skip this.
I've noticed a few instances of what look like people assuming that those who are visibly co... |
f4697608-033b-4e57-b366-e9390d5d2029 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monthly Shorts 4/2022
Conflict
Elon Musk was once asked about the regulatory situation of providing satellite internet without the local countryâs permission. His response was uniquely Muskian:
Elon Musk @elonmusk
@thesheetztweetz They can shake their fist at the sky
September 1st 2021
1,290 Retweets11,916 Likes
Now... |
9ffc1389-c69a-4cf4-89f9-e44af2657a6c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We Agree: Speeches All Around!
In the Catalan autobiography of James I Llibre dels Fets, King James often describes the advice given to him by different nobles and princes of the Church (read bishops). Oftentimes they disagree; sometimes he turns out right, and sometimes they turn out the wiser counsellors. Scholars ... |
5e69b62b-18e6-4d70-b238-c1cc79e31b4b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Sep. 28 - Oct. 4, 2015
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately ... |
f6e54966-bd9d-4d51-952b-dcff629e9b13 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Iâm confused about innate smell neuroanatomy
(This post is probably only of interest to neuroscientists. Iâm mostly writing it in the hopes that someone more knowledgeable will chime in and help me out. Thereâs a comments section at the bottom, or email me.)
(See updates at the very bottomâI might have an answer now.... |
25ecb46b-0c63-4893-b436-1a1c09fd4e26 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | 220. June Ku on MetaEthical.AI
hello and welcome to session 220
in the aict.com reading group tonight we
have
june coo with us presenting her work on
mythical
ai she is she described herself as the
um as a computational meter ethicist and
as far as i can google she's the only
person in the world
with that title so jun... |
c0b790bb-3b02-490b-b13f-5b52d569d6f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is The Blood Thicker Near The Tropics? Trade-Offs Of Living In The Cold
A few centuries ago it was believed that the reason why people near the tropics didn't achieve the level of affluence of their northern conspecifics was that the heat made the blood grow thicker, and that slowed down their movements, and thoughts ... |
51742598-4d48-46d4-90a1-eeab643ee009 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Ramblings of an Old Man Succumbing to Dementia
My grandfather died several years ago, before I began to seriously consider cryonics. He deteriorated markedly as he approached death. Nevertheless, he was smart enough to want to be part of the new technologies "the kids were putting out these days." At age 90, with ... |
133a392d-c14e-4480-a363-5c6647f9dfc0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] You Only Live Twice
Today's post, You Only Live Twice was originally published on 12 December 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
Â
> Yudkowsky's addition to Hanson's endorsement of cryonics.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
This post is part of the Rerun... |
c3cb7f5a-7392-4e8d-83c2-cf40cf7971c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Against Devil's Advocacy
Today's post, Against Devil's Advocacy was originally published on 09 June 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
Â
> Playing Devil's Advocate is occasionally helpful, but much less so than it appears. Ultimately, you should only be able to create plausible arguments for thing... |
1c68d9e9-28d8-4e83-b56b-42ccf3509b44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My simple AGI investment & insurance strategy
TL;DR:
* Options traders think it's extremely unlikely that the stock market will appreciate more than 30 or 40 percent over the next two to three years, as it did over the last year. So they will sell you the option to buy current indexes for 30 or 40% above their curre... |
1be38da9-3dac-4a76-8b18-cbd8a39b4732 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mental Model Theory - Illusion of Possibility Example
(I have written an overview of the mental model theory which is in main and the link is here. You should read this overview before you read this post. You should only read this post if you want more explicit details on the first example which demonstrates the illus... |
a3b0b1a5-35c4-4fb8-b3dc-a2bbcb45cac8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LLMs are likely not conscious
I think the sparse autoencoder line of interpretability work is somewhat convincing evidence that LLMs are not conscious.
In order for me to consciously take in some information (e.g. the house is yellow), I need to store not only the contents of the statement but also some aspect of my ... |
1deca55a-cabb-4a08-b32a-4b70a0fa0db5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Saying "Everyone Is Biased" May Create Bias
It looks like telling people "everyone is biased" might make people not want to change their behavior to overcome their biases:
> In initial experiments, participants were simply asked to rate a particular group, such as women, on a series of stereotypical characteristics, ... |
3153a513-6814-41c1-9461-5e1f9b34a857 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Canberra: Technology to help achieve goals
Discussion article for the meetup : Canberra: Technology to help achieve goals
WHEN: 27 February 2015 06:00:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: 108 North Road, Acton, ACT
Often we come across various pieces of technology - such as a neat app or website - that help us accomplish g... |
9bb44d00-fcbf-47e1-be8d-7fe673768f7d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thirty random thoughts about AI alignment
Why does this post exist?
In order to learn more about my own opinion about AI safety, I tried to write a thought every day before going to bed. Of course, I failed doing this every day, and this is the reason why I have only thirty arguments since January. However, as I am st... |
09648d8f-5b0f-44d4-b0ee-5c684d10670e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Safety First: safety before full alignment. The deontic sufficiency hypothesis.
It could be the case that these two goals are separable and independent:
* âAI safetyâ: avoiding existential risk, s-risk, actively negative outcomes
* âAI getting-everything-we-wantâ (CEV)
Â
This is what Davidad calls this the Deonti... |
489efafd-76ed-42f8-b1c0-3ed92ba8a3ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Child Contracting
The kids came to me with a contract dispute: they disagreed about what the deal had been. After some talking, and hearing what they each thought they'd agreed to, it turned out that the contract wasn't just metaphorical:
"Anna rents the living room from Lily in exchange for Lily's use of bedroom. ... |
5b88ff38-1747-4e8a-8467-706d8efccaec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is "Strong Coherence" Anti-Natural?
Related:
* Contra "Strong Coherence"
* why assume AGIs will optimize for fixed goals
* Why The Focus on Expected Utility Maximisers?
----------------------------------------
Background and Core Concepts
I operationalised "strong coherence" as:
> Informally: a system has immu... |
b86a90a9-7333-4270-88ea-649cbf08005e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do you notice when you are ignorant of necessary alternative hypotheses?
So I just wound up in a debate with someone over on Reddit about the value of conventional academic philosophy. He linked me to a book review, in which both the review and the book are absolutely godawful. That is, the author (and the revie... |
368fbf61-d9ea-488c-ad51-ca9df13e00c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Looking for humanness in the world wide social
Social networks have shaped me since a young age. Growing up at the beginning of the millennium, I used to spend my time in phpBB and vBulletin forums. There, I befriended internet strangers, started my way into graphic design, and learned about torrents. Forums were my f... |
e81d3b9d-d7f2-4730-aefa-8c5b2ecfcc64 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Boston meetup Nov 15 (and others)
So far, only one of the less-wrong meet-ups that were discussed has been scheduled. The Boston meet-up was scheduled for:
Carberry's at 74 Prospect St Cambridge, MA
(1.5 blocks northeast from the Central Square T station)
Sunday November 15th at 2pm
though it may move after an hour... |
449e9612-4919-41a1-82d3-9c772949333e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The AI Countdown Clock
I made [this clock](https://aicountdown.com), counting down the time left until we build AGI:
, have strong relationships to the United States Treasury (UST) market.
Considering the recent moves in that market, I wan... |
a1104705-2632-4cfc-9a79-d598a6e1e74c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The role of Bayesian ML in AI safety - an overview
I want to thank Sebastian Farquhar, Laurence Midgley and Johan van den Heuvel, for feedback and discussion on this post.Â
Some time ago I asked the question âWhat is the role of Bayesian ML in AI safety/alignment?â. The response of the EA and Bayesian ML community wa... |
95a5c388-c137-440e-ba25-d711c7e8b9b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #138]:Â Why AI governance should find problems rather than just solving them
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever ... |
08111cf9-eac7-46cc-a068-dbc917d14e2b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Hessian rank bounds the learning coefficient
TL;DR: In a neural network with d parameters, the (local) learning coefficient λ can be upper and lower bounded by the rank of the network's Hessian d1:
d12â€Î»â€d12+dâd14.
The lower bound is a known result. The upper bound is a claim by me, and this post contains the pr... |
8c43e964-a848-41dd-a269-5976df720d46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | UK Foundation Model Task Force - Expression of Interest
Ian Hogarth has just been announced as the Chair of the UK's AI Foundation Model Taskforce. He's the author of the FT article "We must slow down the race to God-like AGI", and seems to take X-risks from AI seriously.
To quote his twitter thread:
> And to that e... |
d9777b9d-b02f-4f8a-a6f0-bf905e8320ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I am not a Quaker (even though it often seems as though I should be)
In the past year, I have noticed that the Society of Friends (also known as the Quakers) has come to the right answer long before I or most people did, on a surprising number of things, in a surprising range of domains. And yet, I do not feel inc... |
8013e78f-b23c-48c5-8401-00762fc4afe8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Exploratory survey on psychology of AI risk perception
[Share your hot takes](https://forms.gle/LdA5gwLgwHFqpZgw7) on what leads people to see AI risk as important! I will test the most promising hypotheses in a future poll.
The time you take to think about them is up to you, but it will probably take 8-15 minutes. |
55fa035d-bdcc-466a-9432-ad3274e7d181 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (4 min read) An intuitive explanation of the AI influence situation
This is a 4-minute read, inspired by the optimized writing in Eukaryote's Spaghetti Towers post.
My thinking is that generative AI has potential for severe manipulation, but that the 2010s AI used in social media news feeds and other automated system... |
e207b118-843f-46ff-9607-dc7e6c51ed24 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Personal information management
Several weeks ago, I began using personal wiki software Zim Wiki (free and cross-platform for Linux & Windows; I recommend nvALT on Mac OS X) to record all of my notes-to-self. I've found it to be a nice software tool for implementing some of the effectiveness advice I've read on Less ... |
e4cc285f-7788-49a1-a27a-2f66bc60f218 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : London diaspora meetup, 10/01/2016
Discussion article for the meetup : London diaspora meetup, 10/01/2016
WHEN: 10 January 2016 02:00:00PM (+0000)
WHERE: Shakespeare's Head, 64-68 Kingsway, London WC2B 6AH
Parts of LessWrong London have been feeling like the association with LW no longer really captures wh... |
1cfd5b77-f278-43ae-8e38-76057ba785fa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Some disjunctive reasons for urgency on AI risk
(This has been sitting in my drafts folder since August 2017. Robin Hanson's recent [How Lumpy AI Services?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/02/how-lumpy-ai-services.html) made me think of it again. I'm not sure why I didn't post it back then. I may have wanted to ad... |
35484cba-bd09-4c3f-b43e-b6d6bdd46014 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Existing work on creating terminology & names?
I'm in the process of coming up with terminology for various theories, similar to lots of other work on LessWrong and The EA Forum.
Naming things is a bit of a unilateralist action. While community members don't have to accept a specific naming proposal, they are likely ... |
7e0681ba-f3c3-4b3c-add6-6ba7997c6cc5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | W2WNet: a two-module probabilistic Convolutional Neural Network with embedded data cleansing functionality
1 Introduction
---------------
Since the milestone study by Alex Krizhevsky and colleagues in 2012Â [alexnet], Deep Learning (DL), with particular emphasis on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), is the state-... |
cecba6ef-675c-46c7-88c9-fa55f5cde7b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Individual Rationality Is a Matter of Life and Death
On at least two occasions - one only a year past - my life was at serious risk because I was not thinking clearly. Both times, I was lucky (and once, the car even survived!). As a gambler I don't like counting on luck, and I'd much rather be rational enough to avo... |
de87df51-e6fa-4d7d-8c5c-a080a89cb571 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should you announce your bets publicly?
Over time, I've noticed many examples of people making bets that don't make much sense from a subjective profit-maximizing point of view. Without naming the people involved, here are some examples:
1. A lends B some amount of USD to be paid back in seven years, with an effecti... |
f809c9bd-163d-497f-8c21-f6304eba9c86 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Robin Hansonâs âSocial Proof, but of What?â
Response Post to (Overcoming Bias): Social Proof, But of What?
Epistemic Status: It seemed worth writing a long post but not a short one, so I saved time and wrote a long one. Feel free to skip this if it does not seem interesting to you.
It seems worthwhile to closely ... |
b873bb78-74e6-49a2-8bb1-ae4cc1f8a4fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Agenty AGI â How Tempting?
[Epistemic status: mostly writing to clarify my intuitions, with just a few weak attempts to convince others. It's no substitute for reading Drexler's writings.]
I've been struggling to write more posts relating to Drexler's vision for AI (hopefully to be published soon), and in the process... |
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