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40ab85ac-a6ca-4be6-83b0-782c51e29669 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | A new MIRI FAQ, and other announcements
MIRI is at [Effective Altruism Global](http://www.ea-global.org)! A number of the talks can be watched online at the [EA Global Livestream](http://www.eaglobal.org/livestream).
We have a new MIRI **[Frequently Asked Questions page](http://intelligence.org/faq)**, which we’ll b... |
4ea2d5a7-ceca-467c-b1b8-f76e65b38166 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Do You Want Your Autonomous Car to Drive Like You?.
1 Introduction
---------------
In the age of autonomous driving, researchers and companies are getting ever-so-close to enabling cars to generate driving behavior that includes reaching the destination while satisfying safety constraints, like not colliding with o... |
2ece07bb-2b19-4935-9f8f-764112cce717 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Five Minute Beans
At the EA dinner last night more people showed up than had RSVP'd, and we ran out of vegan protein. Julia was still running the intro Q&A, so I made more beans. Someone asked for the recipe, which in this case is optimized for being fast while still being pretty tasty:
* 1 can black beans (15.5oz)... |
be0395d1-7b4d-4a0b-9b9b-0001cc92cfb8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What would a world of widespread statistical numeracy look like?
I was just reading the thread comparing covid and tobacco, and it made me start wondering about the effect of statistical numeracy in general.
Personally, I have a lot of room for improvement when it comes to these skills (but at least I am aware of thi... |
6e13f591-2e07-4520-a9a0-1565a191457c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Logical Pinpointing
Followup to: Causal Reference, Proofs, Implications and Models
The fact that one apple added to one apple invariably gives two apples helps in the teaching of arithmetic, but has no bearing on the truth of the proposition that 1 + 1 = 2.
-- James R. Newman, The World of Mathematics
Previous medi... |
5422001a-2260-4d19-8be7-63fc63d39b62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mitigating the damage from unaligned ASI by cooperating with aliens that don't exist yet
Epistemic status: Pretty sure the idea is sound, but its feasibility is unfortunately a bit questionable.
Basic idea
Humanity must as soon as possible send a message to civilizations beyond Earth containing the following:
1. E... |
69be66de-38dd-4f81-8abd-59df2bcaddb6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Are Non-Zero-Sum Games?—A Primer
Originally published at https://nonzerosum.games. Come visit for the full experience.
From the genetic lottery we’re thrown into at birth, to the educational opportunities we navigate, the jobs we compete for, and the relationships we cultivate — every stage in life is marked b... |
96948f31-b9a6-409a-aaa1-f4c86a89ea29 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On expected utility, part 4: Dutch books, Cox, and Complete Class
(Cross-posted from Hands and Cities)
Previously in sequence: Skyscrapers and madmen; Why it can be OK to predictably lose; VNM, separability, and more
This is the final essay in a four-part series on expected utility maximization (EUM). This part focu... |
9854e286-a9e0-42d9-8e25-65b0821cc6bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Econ/Game theory question
This puzzled me. I'm pretty sure it's one of those unsolvable questions, but I'd want to know if it's not.
Two members of the species Homo Economus, A and B, live next to each other. A wants to buy an easement (a right to cross B's property, without which he cannot bring anything onto his lo... |
7ec2ffa7-fb7f-4aa8-bb34-ca78ae3f4a65 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A toy model of the treacherous turn
Jaan Tallinn has suggested creating a toy model of the various common AI arguments, so that they can be analysed without loaded concepts like "autonomy", "consciousness", or "intentionality". Here a simple attempt for the "[treacherous turn](/lw/l9u/superintelligence_11_the_treacher... |
0eeeedb0-67cc-462d-b394-2c0ee2984d61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interpreting Deep Neural Networks using Cognitive Psychology (DeepMind)
|
409ab0b4-a6e8-4418-83dc-8570f4829754 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to LessWrong Darmstadt
What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do? How frequently does your group organize events or meet?
Monthly online-meetups, listening to/discussing/working with some prepared input (e.g. how to make bets, Fermi modelling, book review of Thinking, Fast and S... |
1cec91c7-5f52-4573-be19-9bcb776d5404 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Exercises for Overcoming Akrasia and Procrastination
In order to enter the "Rationality Exercises" competition, I've decided to create this cliffnotes version of my upcoming sequence on overcoming akrasia and procrastination.
Please enter any meta comments, or comments not pertaining to a particular exercise here.
T... |
9b7e9f91-91bd-49df-97e7-977213beea55 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Safe training procedures for human-imitators
How do we train a reinforcement learning system to imitate a human producing complex outputs such as strings? Existing approaches are not entirely satisfactory.
Concretely, suppose there is some set of questions. A human can answer each question with a string. We have ... |
4016fa21-bb17-4ec6-b1a9-0b877b4c9a95 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing Neuronpedia: Platform for accelerating research into Sparse Autoencoders
This posts assumes basic familiarity with Sparse Autoencoders. For those unfamiliar with this technique, we highly recommend the introductory sections of these papers.
TL;DR
Neuronpedia is a platform for mechanistic interpretability ... |
3e46b281-c57e-4185-a01d-0a32d2321926 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne Social Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne Social Meetup
WHEN: 19 July 2013 06:30:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 5 / 52 Leicester St, Carlton 3053
Melbourne's regular monthly Social Meetup will be running as normal on Friday evening this week. All welcome from 6:30pm, feel free to arrive la... |
07fcf084-6a36-4e62-848b-f5ce4f844897 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Algorithmic Improvement Is Probably Faster Than Scaling Now
The Story as of ~4 Years Ago
Back in 2020, a group at OpenAI ran a conceptually simple test to quantify how much AI progress was attributable to algorithmic improvements. They took ImageNet models which were state-of-the-art at various times between 2012 and ... |
64137d43-167a-4611-af0c-d96c402881cf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | John Fox on AI safety
[John Fox](http://www.cossac.org/people/johnfox) is an interdisciplinary scientist with theoretical interests in AI and computer science, and an applied focus in medicine and medical software engineering. After training in experimental psychology at Durham and Cambridge Universities and post-doct... |
6d46239d-bca1-4106-afdc-812723c89dad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | X risk update, Gliese 710 will pass thru Oort in 1.35 my
I was tracking these runaway stars for a SF story i had in mind, but this is the closest one i have heard of yet, and the ArXiv paper describes one that also passed thru 2.5 mya.
Gliese 710 will pass the Sun even closer
Close approach parameters recalcula... |
99e2384c-68dd-4228-b12f-fe97a8f52d88 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Durham/RTLW HPMoR discussion, ch. 61-63
Discussion article for the meetup : Durham/RTLW HPMoR discussion, ch. 61-63
WHEN: 04 May 2013 12:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 726 Rigsbee Avenue, Durham NC 27701
Meet up at Fullsteam to discuss HPMoR chapters 61-63! (Warning: this is only 3 chapters, but 63 is pretty subst... |
f2f04b2d-81be-457a-a160-010173b835e3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Machines and the Theory of Intelligence
Abstract
--------
This article is based on a series of special lectures delivered at University College, London, in November 1972.
[Access through your institution](https://wayf.springernature.com?redirect\_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2F241507a0)
[Buy or ... |
5e91b40d-fc31-4504-b20a-bc22918c5158 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Non-poisonous cake: anthropic updates are normal
I am on a quest to show that [anthropics probability are normal](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BYy62ib5tAkn9rsKn/sia-is-basically-just-bayesian-updating-on-existence), at least in the absence of exact duplicates.
So consider this simple example: a coin is tossed. Th... |
d4d20c18-74c4-439d-b30b-010878bdc7c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes 26
"Poets, philosophers, acidheads, salesmen: everybody wants to know, 'What is Reality?' Some say it's a vast Unknowable so astounding and raw and naked that it grips the human mind and shakes it like a puppy shakes a rag doll. A lot of good that does us."
-- The Book of the SubGenius
"W... |
44ef1026-50ba-42d4-b60d-474ef7211923 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interpreting Preference Models w/ Sparse Autoencoders
This is the real reward output for an OS preference model. The bottom "jailbreak" completion was manually created by looking at reward-relevant SAE features.
Preference Models (PMs) are trained to imitate human preferences and are used when training with RLHF (rei... |
effe84f2-203b-4604-b1fa-b7bee0a1564e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Estimate Effect Sizes
I think the following recommendation might reduce a particular negative reaction to blog posts and claims by 10%-50%, and generally improve the precision of discussion by a slight amount.
There are many phenomena that we observe that we aren't certain how to explain, and discussing potential exp... |
bb3daa98-78b9-47b2-9286-c096b3179365 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Making the chaff invisible, and getting the wheat ($200 prize too)
The title is the best name I could come up for a problem I have had for years, and have been waiting for someone else to come up with a solution.
There is a lot of awesome content on the web. Some of it is about events you could be at, right now, tha... |
196a9b26-7017-480d-8cab-c7801c5045cb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | $500 bounty for alignment contest ideas
**\*Up to $500 for alignment contest ideas\***
Olivia Jimenez and I are composing questions for an AI alignment talent search contest. We want to use (or come up with) a frame of the alignment problem that is accessible to smart high schoolers/college students and people wi... |
0aef2e96-95c6-40bf-bc13-29cb5efa1ea4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SAEs are highly dataset dependent: a case study on the refusal direction
This is an interim report sharing preliminary results. We hope this update will be useful to related research occurring in parallel.
Executive Summary
* Problem: Qwen1.5 0.5B Chat SAEs trained on the pile (webtext) fail to find sparse, interpr... |
8fe10326-7427-4d1d-8c25-345444205346 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Eight Definitions of Observability
This is the eleventh post in the [Cartesian frames](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames) sequence. Here, we compare eight equivalent definitions of observables, which emphasize different philosophical interpretations.
Throughout this po... |
49033391-c926-42b5-8b3d-d75e8ffbd0ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Oren's Field Guide of Bad AGI Outcomes
This field guide is my attempt to collect my observations and conceptual ideas regarding artificial general intelligence (AGI), it’s place in our current moment of AI history and designs for AGI that might just get us out of our current exposure to existential risk from technolog... |
8ca4cdf0-69df-48e9-8152-e4c8a6991ff7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beyond Blame Minimization: Thoughts from the comments
There were a lot of fantastic comments on this post. I want to break down some common themes and offer my thoughts.
Incentives
Unsurprisingly, there was a lot of focus on the role that incentives—or a lack thereof—play in a bureaucracy.
Dumbledore's Army:
> I’v... |
6e7d2643-7222-4bf7-9522-9b828e648c57 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (Link) I'm Missing a Chunk of My Brain
I'm blown away by this story. This perfectly normal woman is missing a big chunk of the left hemisphere, where the functions associated with language are typically placed. I guess that the main takeaway could be:
> "It seems that networks in the brain arrange in a particular way... |
6457e649-058a-4873-a40a-2377a02d3ec0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How much is death a limit on knowledge accumulation?
The older I get, the more it feels like death is a major bottleneck to the accumulation of certain kinds of knowledge and insights.
It's not much of a blocker to shallow things that are easy to explain precisely. For example:
* math
* physics
* accounting of mo... |
1d825458-64b2-40bf-91f3-56665fe81556 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why care about AI personhood?
In this new paper, I discuss what it would mean for AI systems to be persons — entities with properties like agency, theory-of-mind, and self-awareness — and why this is important for alignment. In this post, I say a little more about why you should care.
The existential safety literatu... |
426c7065-c2ae-4be6-a0aa-8a53f85a8636 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How curing aging could help progress
How would society change if we cured aging, and people could have as many healthy years of life as they wanted?
A common concern is that this would ossify our institutions. The old guard would never die off, and so would never be replaced by young bloods. This could threaten progr... |
42ec6eda-f05c-4516-8d36-a03e0a2fcaa7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 76: Interlude with the Confessor: Sunk Costs
Rianne Felthorne descended the stairs of roughened stone and crude mortar, keeping a Lumos lit through the distances between fire-sconces, holding aloft her wand through the gaps from light to light.
She came to the empty rock cavern pierced by many dark openings, ... |
d5325ac8-4a74-44d7-af03-2629ecedc2b5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Perfect Predictors
What's even the point of making decision theories for dealing with perfect predictors (newcomb's paradox) when we know that according to one of our most accepted theories these days (quantum mechanics) the inherent randomness of our universe does not allow perfect prediction even with unlimited curr... |
a2bff76e-8c2e-451b-a726-398cf00f0d1b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Some Summaries of Agent Foundations Work
This is a bunch of not-very-technical summaries of agent foundations work from LessWrong and the Alignment Forum.
I was hoping to turn it into a comprehensive literature review, categorising things in an enlightening way and listing open problems. It turns out that's pretty ha... |
8f7643e9-df8b-4b2a-bd2c-82916731b403 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A short introduction to machine learning
Despite the current popularity of machine learning, I haven’t found any short introductions to it which quite match the way I prefer to introduce people to the field. So here’s my own. Compared with other introductions, I’ve focused less on explaining each concept in detail, an... |
439cfb85-8822-4884-8837-194545e73838 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ARC-AGI is a genuine AGI test but o3 cheated :(
The developer of ARC-AGI says o3 is not AGI, and admits his test isn't really an AGI test.[1] But I think it is an AGI test.
From first principles, AGI tests should be easy to make, because the only reason current AI isn't AGI, is that it fails at a lot of things human ... |
492c4f4d-fa9f-47e8-8df2-5e4067f98350 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Upcoming MIRI Research Workshops
From November 11-18, 2012, we held (what we now call) the **1st MIRI Workshop on Logic, Probability, and Reflection**. This workshop had four participants:
* [Eliezer Yudkowsky](http://yudkowsky.net/) (MIRI)
* [Paul Christiano](http://rationalaltruist.com/) (UC Berkeley)
* Marcello H... |
8f9d199e-9ee1-4586-8436-30fcf52c1de1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My summary of “Pragmatic AI Safety”
Crossposted from the EA Forum: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XxWsAw7DefKipzRLc/my-summary-of-pragmatic-ai-safety
This post is my summary of “Pragmatic AI Safety” on complex systems and capabilities externalities.
To examine AI safety as a complex system means to... |
2fc6176c-fc6f-4a70-8dc6-1a6883269acc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tiles: Report on Programmatic Code Generation
Writing programs that generate programs is hard. The programmer has to think at two levels of abstraction at once. She has to follow the logic of the generator. At the same time she can't lose the focus on the logic of the generated code. And the two don't even have to be ... |
2f97f336-ef80-4bcb-9b10-9c8d3cfd7e1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Agentized LLMs will change the alignment landscape
Epistemic status: head spinning, suddenly unsure of everything in alignment. And unsure of these predictions.
I'm following the suggestions in 10 reasons why lists of 10 reasons might be a winning strategy in order to get this out quickly (reason 10 will blow your mi... |
5957c523-dfa1-43fc-ac72-c86eb2dc21da | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | How promising are legal avenues to restrict AI training data?
Hello - I'm EA-adjacent and have a cursory understanding of AI alignment issues. Thought I'd toss out a naive question!
AI systems rely on huge amounts of training data. Many people seem reluctant to share their data with these systems. How promising a... |
687f7621-0114-4b97-b02a-5275d16ad99a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hammertime Day 10: Murphyjitsu
This is part 10 of 30 in the Hammertime Sequence. Click here for the intro.
> Like, so pessimistic that reality actually comes out better than you expected around as often and as much as it comes out worse. It’s actually really hard to be so pessimistic that you stand a decent chance of... |
089e61b3-d20e-4e2b-8228-2f2f27226165 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will research in AI risk jinx it?
Consequences of training AI on AI risk arguments
A new paper from Anthropic (https://www.anthropic.com/model-written-evals.pdf) suggests that current RLHF AI already say that they do not want to be shutdown due to the standard instrumental goal argument. See this dialogue from table... |
2aa59d2c-8c76-49e6-b1b8-eb0ff1f9cb4f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intelligence Amplification Interview
Ryan Carey and I discussed intelligence amplification as an altruistic endeavor with Gwern Branwen. Here (docx) (pdf) is a summary of Gwern’s views. Also more permanently locatable on my website.
|
03f4b016-8f23-4b53-819f-cf2c8e21b88e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Gemini Incident
[Original title; Gemini Has a Problem]
Google’s Gemini 1.5 is impressive and I am excited by its huge context window. I continue to default to Gemini Advanced as my default AI for everyday use when the large context window is not relevant.
However, while it does not much interfere with what I wan... |
6adae9d6-926a-45f8-b081-3bdb55bb1771 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Worldwork for Ethics
Abstract: An alternative to the now-predominating models of alignment, corrigibility and "CEV", following a critique of these. The critique to show, in substance: CEV and corrigibility have the exact same problems - in effect, they're isomorphs of one another, and each equally unobtainable. This b... |
7173c676-e242-4fb4-937b-80d9ea600f3c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Apply to the 2025 PIBBSS Summer Research Fellowship
TLDR: We're hosting a 3-month, fully-funded fellowship to do AI safety research drawing on inspiration from fields like evolutionary biology, neuroscience, dynamical systems theory, and more. Past fellows have been mentored by John Wentworth, Davidad, Abram Demski, J... |
71914c36-0ece-487b-986b-47a23cc5b447 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Intellectual Property Evaluation Utilizing Machine Learning
1
Intellectual Property Evaluation Utilizing Machine
Learning
#Jinxin Ding
Department of Economics and Finance
City University of Hong Kong
Hong Kong
jinxiding3 -c@my.cityu.edu.hk
#Xueyao W ang
School of Data Science
City University of ... |
b68f4606-3de2-4055-af05-d9cbe3cd148b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intelligence-disadvantage
While LessWrong contains a large amount of high-quality material, most of the rationality advice isn't actually targeted at our core audience. The focus seems to be more on irrational things that people do, rather than irrational things that smart people do. (Sidenote: If we wanted to create ... |
c49bce70-bf85-4dfd-8498-f5b4fd13fdee | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | On Handling Self-masking and Other Hard Missing Data Problems.
On Handling Self-masking and Other Hard Missing Data Problems
Karthika Mohan
Computer Science Department
University of California, Berkeley
karthika@berkeley.edu
Abstract
This paper tackles hard incomplete (missing) data problems
such as those in which mis... |
18e799d2-9f46-4883-8d2d-3fbc10b1dc70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne social meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne social meetup
WHEN: 16 November 2012 07:00:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: see mailing list, Carlton VIC 3053 Australia
Melbourne's next social meetup is on Friday 16 November, 6:30 for 7pm, at my house. If you have any trouble working out the locat... |
355ec078-149d-4a75-8a2d-5d0fb9e3f9ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Model History is Being Lost
I fear that we may lose – and are already losing – the modern history of AI, particularly with regard to the ability to use models that are/were only available in hosted capacities. As AI models are retired and become inaccessible, we’re losing crucial historical context about AI develop... |
d05bdd81-d156-48b5-9aab-fb33fe508af2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Idea: Monthly Community Thread
The FrontPage Posting Guidelines currently discourage community focused discussion and suggest including the community tag once a tagging system has been implemented. This system hasn't been implemented yet, but I believe it is still important to be able to have some level of community d... |
5a6e2016-b304-44e3-ac6d-7266bbcbe7a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New censorship: against hypothetical violence against identifiable people
New proposed censorship policy:
Any post or comment which advocates or 'asks about' violence against sufficiently identifiable real people or groups (as opposed to aliens or hypothetical people on trolley tracks) may be deleted, along with repl... |
e3a87eea-e989-48b7-ad55-177aecd942a8 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post690
Thanks to Phillip Christoffersen, Adam Gleave, Anjali Gopal, Soroush Pour, and Fabien Roger for useful discussions and feedback. TL;DR This post overviews a research agenda for avoiding unwanted latent capabilities in LLMs. It argues that "deep" forgetting and unlearning may be important, tractable, and ne... |
0ac9b05a-d5d2-460c-878e-e51590146307 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Towards understanding-based safety evaluations
Thanks to Kate Woolverton, Ethan Perez, Beth Barnes, Holden Karnofsky, and Ansh Radhakrishnan for useful conversations, comments, and feedback.
Recently, I have noticed a lot of momentum within AI safety specifically, the broader AI field, and our society more generally,... |
ec2450a0-bb4b-46fe-be2b-5e2aac53c0c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Romance, misunderstanding, social stances, and the human LLM
1. Cross-sex friendships
I saw a tweet recently that was talking about one of the possible conditions where (heterosexual) men and women have an easy time being “just friends”:
> if the “lovers” symbol energy is already bound up in something else, and/or if... |
e279ae7a-1dad-48b6-9c93-134573201f76 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ought: why it matters and ways to help
I think that Ought is one of the most promising projects working on AI alignment. There are several ways that LW readers can potentially help:
* They are recruiting a senior full-stack web developer.
* They are recruiting participants for "factored evaluation" experiments.
* ... |
3454b776-ddf8-48f7-bd5a-a1555316a9c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Review: Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way by Will Kurt
The main conference hall enveloped me in its gentle, air-conditioned embrace. Outside, in typical New York City fashion, the sun burned and the heavy, humid air threatened to suffocate everyone indiscriminately.
After registering and picking up my badge, I found my... |
4c7241d9-8440-4652-b7c3-7e926b653809 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Humans as a truth channel
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
Defining truth and accuracy is tricky, so when I've proposed designs for things like Oracles, I've either used a very specific and formal question, or and indirect criteria for truth.
Here I'll try and get a more direct system so that an AI wi... |
c82e2195-6bd8-490a-9446-a5653d5e09be | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Is SGD a Bayesian sampler? Well, almost
1 Introduction
---------------
While deep neural networks (DNNs) have revolutionised modern machine learning (LeCun et al., [2015](#bib.bib41 "Deep learning"); Schmidhuber, [2015](#bib.bib214 "Deep learning in neural networks: an overview")), a solid theoretical understanding... |
3f0d0f0f-622f-4cc2-a960-937eb695d9a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Current Trends in Economics and their Shortcoming
In economics, as in other sciences, we need universal theories, and we need to understand how they apply in specific contexts. This is quite distinct from the ideas of theoretical and empirical work or basic and applied science.
When we talk about theories of human be... |
7da3c38a-63a1-4731-ac1d-e460c9fddbd2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bragging Thread, August 2014
Your job, should you choose to accept it, is to comment on this thread explaining the most awesome thing you've done this since July 1st. You may be as blatantly proud of yourself as you feel. You may unabashedly consider yourself the coolest freaking person ever because of that awesome... |
0ee3725d-a202-4d2f-8302-89a54d09dfa0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Falling Drill
Summary: The Falling Drill is intended to practice being wrong in a comfortable practice environment, intended to help us handle being wrong out in the world easier and with less stress.
Tags: Small, repeatable
Purpose: The first thing you learn in martial arts is the ability to fall. The corresp... |
85fae474-4db9-44c6-9a3b-de5d70962908 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Technical Appendix: First safeguard?This sequence is written to be broadly accessible, although perhaps its focus on capable AI systems assumes familiarity with basic arguments for the importance of AI alignment. The technical appendices are an exception, targeting the technically inclined.Why do I claim that an im... |
56551fd2-4ae0-4c93-aabf-2061de9c01c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What videos should Rational Animations make?
I want to know what you would be excited to see covered on the channel.
I'd especially like to know what videos you think would be optimal to make according to an optimization target you specify. It's more effortful, but more useful, to answer that question instead of just... |
a1357af2-a7ca-45e7-b1ea-30ebfef16a2a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A conversation about growing through the history of the rationality movement and some of it's history
Daniel and Myself have been talking psychotechnologies and rationality and our journey through the community for 33 episodes now. This one is specific to the rationality community and it's history and how we saw it h... |
e2836bc4-9ee8-4eb1-981d-a0b2d7c52266 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Best in Class Life Improvement
Im gonna retract this one. Recommends some suboptimally dangerous stuff. Also gives people the wrong idea. I have at least tried anything I recced. But I don't personally use all these things. I only ever recommended them to solve problems you actually had. But given how crazy things hav... |
ad1259e7-b01c-4422-8ec1-98f51e993923 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Building Ethics into Artificial Intelligence
1 Introduction
---------------
As artificial intelligence (AI) technologies enter many areas of our daily life [[Cai et al.2014](#bib.bibx11), [Shi et al.2016](#bib.bibx42), [Pan et al.2017](#bib.bibx37), [Zheng et al.2018](#bib.bibx59)], the problem of ethical decision-... |
687268b8-8fac-48af-8a1a-64c2a6ad1c98 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Visual Grounding in Video for Unsupervised Word Translation
#### Translating Words Through Unpaired Narrated Videos
The most common approach for machine translation relies on supervision through paired or parallel corpus where each sentence in the source language is paired with its translation in the target language.... |
e228cfc2-25b9-4820-bc62-55dee6927a0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Opinion merging for AI control
Thanks to Justis for proofreading and feedback.
This is a simplified followup to my post on "mimics". I think the basic idea there is valuable and still does not appear to be widely appreciated, so I'm trying to explain it again.
Introduction: the misjudgment problem
Suppose I try to ... |
ab13e810-4425-4759-a2b5-4ebf49b67038 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Crossposted from world spirit sock puppet.
When I think of humans being so smart due to ‘cultural accumulation’, I think of lots of tiny innovations in thought and technology being made by different people, and added to the interpersonal currents of culture that wash into each person’s brain, leaving a twenty year old... |
5b9ca716-14ef-4441-a9e9-7b5f67d7074f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI safety field building projects I’d like to see
This list of field building ideas is inspired by Akash Wasil’s and Ryan Kidd’s similar lists. And just as the projects on those lists, these projects rely on people with specific skills and field knowledge to be executed well.
None of these ideas are developed by me ... |
e7c7b462-1781-49c2-be41-806929e8c7e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Knowledge's practicability
Knowledge can be useless. Much of what we learned isn't used.
The most famous example of useless knowledge must be schools.
But before discussing why school isn't practical, let's first talk about when knowledge is practical. I use this simple formula to decide if something has high applic... |
f29a4436-ce9e-464e-8535-6d546f48b5c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | MA E-ZPass Without a Car?
I recently drove to DC and back playing dances in a rental. I paid cash tolls when available, but that often wasn't an option, so I ended up paying $40 in PlatePass charges in addition to the $63 in tolls. Time to get an E-ZPass!
What makes this tricky is that I don't own a car. Well, I have... |
465dbbdf-a144-447f-882d-39344534b6fb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Realism and Rationality
*Format warning: This post has somehow ended up consisting primarily of substantive endnotes. It should be fine to read just the (short) main body without looking at any of the endnotes, though. The endnotes elaborate on various claims and distinctions and also include a much longer discussion ... |
cccf939f-a183-4c42-9ead-8784c004f81b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I wrote this because of watermelon
We say to the watermelon
"We accept your offering of sugar. We will share our riches with you in return, that you may have the safety and plenty to grow even sweeter."
And we say to the watermelon
"You make these seeds to carry on your line, in the only way you know how. But we are c... |
bed23543-e95d-4e0a-9f8e-13bb64451709 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 1 of How to Win Friends and Influence People
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is worthwhile because:
1. It became so popular in 1936 and afterwards that much of elite Western culture is downstream of it.
1. So if you try using it adversarially (even accidentally e.g. you notice and... |
258a598e-ab82-4a0a-8201-fcfbbb41b374 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Uncertainty about the future does not imply that AGI will go well
Subtitle: A partial defense of high-confidence AGI doom predictions.
Introduction
============
Consider these two kinds of accident scenarios:
1. In a **default-success** scenario, accidents are rare. For example, modern aviation is very safe thanks ... |
4eef192e-38c2-41b5-a3e2-803a5354d8e8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | "The Universe of Minds" - call for reviewers (Seeds of Science)
### Abstract
The paper attempts to describe the space of possible mind designs by first equating all minds to software. Next it proves some interesting properties of the mind design space such as infinitude of minds, size and representation complexity of... |
1a9f1feb-7e79-4ea1-84f3-68b4b78fdad4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learning (meta-)preferences
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
There are various methods, such as Cooperative Inverse Reinforcement Learning (CIRL), that aim to have an AI deduce human preferences in some fashion.
The problem is that humans are not rational - citation certainly not needed. But, worse th... |
89303e62-2103-4a36-a82e-5e7b8b6db02c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW Update 2018-07-18 – AlignmentForum Bug Fixes
Git commit: 882df0fe53f3c2bb04fac76d5b631f32cab28b1b
AlignmentForum
* If a non-AlignmentForum member's post gets moved to AlignmentForum, they can now comment on that post.
* Fixed the bug on LessWrong where canceling a vote on a non-AF post briefly showed a flicker ... |
aa7a6652-6a29-4b31-8c92-96ef2031f277 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will the growing deer prion epidemic spread to humans? Why not?
Helpful background reading: What’s the deal with prions?
A novel lethal infectious neurological disease emerged in American deer a few decades ago. Since then, it’s spread rapidly across the continent. In areas where the disease is found, it can be very ... |
60e27d7a-f808-402a-99c8-b9c6e71c93dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The social value of high school extracurricular time
Ambitious high school students are typically heavily constrained in the sense that maximizing their college admissions prospects comes at the cost of spending a lot of time on coursework. See for example our page on College statements on the importance of grades and... |
b69eec75-17db-4c2a-ab91-ab9ef04dd29b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A simple model of the Löbstacle
The idea of the Löbstacle is that basic trust in yourself and your successors is necessary but tricky: necessary, because naively modeling your successor's decisions cannot rule out them making a bad decision, unless they are in some sense less intelligent than you; tricky, because the ... |
ccb9451a-33d9-4824-9833-debb8584e2ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Representation Tuning
Summary
First, I identify activation vectors related to honesty in an RLHF’d LLM (Llama-2-13b-chat). Next, I demonstrate that model output can be made more or less honest by adding positive or negative multiples of these vectors to residual stream activations during generation. Then, I show that ... |
a53c33fe-93e7-4ff1-a6fc-5de8427ae5ac | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Are we confident that superintelligent artificial intelligence disempowering humans would be bad?
I think it is almost always assumed that superintelligent [artificial intelligence](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/artificial-intelligence) (SAI) disempowering humans would be bad, but are we confident about t... |
43119360-aacc-404a-aa90-ccce306c2a4f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Specific Arguments against open source LLMs?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/github-urges-the-european-union-to-reconsider-its-ai-act/ar-AA1ey0nQ
https://github.blog/2023-07-26-how-to-get-ai-regulation-right-for-open-source/
"In a joint effort, GitHub, Hugging Face, Creative Commons, and other tech compan... |
0d627fd9-8d27-426b-8f41-83701681a410 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If Wentworth is right about natural abstractions, it would be bad for alignment
This post was written as part of the AI safety Mentors and Mentees program. My Mentor is Jacques Thibodeau.
In this post, I will distinguish between two hypotheses that are often conflated. To disambiguate, I first suggest two different n... |
7ca14ff5-f386-455f-8396-b7bf44a40825 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Science advances one funeral at a time
Major scientific institutions talk a big game about innovation, but the reality is that many of the mechanisms designed to ensure quality—peer review, funding decisions, the academic hierarchy—explicitly incentivize incremental rather than revolutionary progress; are far more ori... |
32d15f1d-6197-419f-ba82-e524270d6c6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | $100/$50 rewards for good references
With thanks to Rohin Shah.
Dear LessWrongers, this is an opportunity to make money and help with AI alignment.
We're looking for specific AI capabilities; has anyone published on the following subject:
* Generating multiple reward functions or policies from the same set of chal... |
200a025f-019b-44e9-bdb2-e3b2d06efe45 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Two working memories, one on each side of the brain [link]
Not a working memory of four, it's really two plus two.
Tl, dr: It's easier to remember four things if you've got two on one side of your visual field and two on the other. Three or four on one side can cause overload errors.
Working memory for other senses ... |
5e0ec370-9716-47c9-89a0-5bc4ba6cba20 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link] Biostasis / Cryopreservation Survey 2020
https://biostasis-survey.paperform.co/ |
ce0dea03-b858-45e9-93b9-c15ab1a7a961 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Russian native speakers wanted as editors (translating "Smarter Than Us")
Thanks to the efforts of volunteer translators, Smarter Than Us: The Rise of Machine Intelligence was translated into Russian.
Many thanks to the volunteers who translated it, and to Stuart Armstrong who wrote it in the first place!
But now, w... |
fbb6d086-e148-49c3-a4aa-908d4561c5df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LessWrong Is Not about Forum Software, LessWrong Is about Posts (Or: How to Immanentize the LW 2.0 Eschaton in 2.5 Easy Steps!)
[epistemic status: I was going to do a lot of research for this post, but I decided not to as there are no sources on the internet so I'd have to interview people directly and I'd rather have... |
d592427e-2a1c-4a0c-8de6-64e9bf3d4002 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is this voting system strategy proof?
My voting system works like this. Each voter expresses their preferences for all candidates on a real numbered utility scale.
Then a Maximal lottery takes place over all lotteries over candidates. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximal_lotteries
Lets describe this in more detail... |
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