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d41a37dc-7b00-492d-be07-30cbe8dba3b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI risk hub in Singapore?
I tentatively guess that if Singapore were to become a thriving hub for AI risk reduction, this would reduce AI risk by 16%. Moreover I think making this happen is fairly tractable and extremely neglected. In this post I sketch my reasons. I'm interested to hear what the community thinks.
My... |
c75e9686-0bdf-4fde-96e9-e8bab3587015 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Sparse Autoencoders: Future Work
*Mostly my own writing, except for the 'Better Training Methods' section which was written by* [*@Aidan Ewart*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/aidan-ewart?mention=user)*.*
We made a lot [of progress](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E8imxQo96WgDCMxkA/replication-conjecture-s-spars... |
05fed861-db78-4ffb-938c-684c07917fd8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Call for submissions: Choice of Futures survey questions
**TL;DR: independent researcher** **(M.A. Philosophy) crowdsourcing questions for an upcoming survey:** **submit** [**here**](https://airtable.com/shrV2dCDwEW6jo6Jz) **some** **controversial societal goals and fears** **you think we should get cross-comparison p... |
71a54ce5-fe35-49e0-9edc-e8fc55b57dbf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anthropic Reasoning by CDT in Newcomb's Problem
By orthonormal's suggestion, I take this out of comments.
Consider a CDT agent making a decision in a Newcomb's problem, in which Omega is known to make predictions by perfectly simulating the players. Assume further that the agent is capable of anthropic reasoning a... |
e244d03d-92d9-4e34-842d-88f8730a2ac3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alignment First, Intelligence Later
Now that Softmax—my favorite new AI company—is public, I can finally share this. They’ve funded my research and I’m very excited about what they’re doing!
----------------------------------------
Almost all frontier AI labs are building powerful systems from the ground up, hoping ... |
994167eb-a8d1-4997-9b3d-58205bf918b0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The Windfall Clause has a remedies problem
*Thanks to Holly Scott, Aryan Yadav, Jide Alaga, Will Greenman, Cullen O’Keefe, Haydn Bellfield and Peter Wills for all your feedback and suggestions on this post.*
---
This post is a supplement to the (forthcoming) TaWWWC - England & Wales, a discussion of the viability ... |
8003affe-9509-40e8-9326-7ee4ba38ae92 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can Current LLMs be Trusted To Produce Paperclips Safely?
There's a browser-based game about paperclip maximization: Universal Paperclips, where you control an AI tasked with running a paperclip factory.
Initially, you buy raw material, adjust the price per clip, and invest in "AutoClippers" to increase production. T... |
24ecb310-07cd-4df4-9f35-b44a3bad0597 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You're a Space Wizard, Luke
"My father didn't fight in the wars. He was a navigator on a spice freighter," said Luke.
"That's what your uncle told you. Basic security protocol. You don't tell a young child sensitive information about your participation in an ongoing civil war. Which reminds me. I have here something ... |
ca339e38-2708-4916-b9bf-7e9075cde264 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Fake Utility Functions
Every now and then, you run across someone who has discovered the
One Great Moral Principle, of which all other values are a mere
derivative consequence.
I run across more of these people than you do. Only in my case, it's people who know *the amazingly simple utility function that is all you... |
a824794f-7ed9-4440-b0da-1de999599bfe | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
*Or: Big Timelines Crux Operationalized*
========================================
What fun things could one build with +12 orders of magnitude of compute? By ‘fun’ I mean ‘powerful.’ This hypothetical is highly relevant to AI timelines, for reasons I’ll explain later.
*Summary (Spoilers)... |
5af90283-cc33-4c38-abd2-56ad4944d56c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dance Differentiation
Let's imagine you have a community where there's enough interest for something like a dance every week. What's better: a single dance with a weekly schedule ("every Friday") or multiple dances dividing up the month ("1st Fridays", "2nd Fridays", etc)? While there are advantages to both, I think t... |
cd2690b1-cee3-4ea3-9b21-f4abe8b46b2e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hufflepuff Leadership and Fighting Entropy
(In which my mild annoyance at a particular garbage bin outputs an essay that I think is pretty generalizable and important, but maybe is just a rant. *shrug*)
Previously:
* Project Hufflepuff [note: sort of deprecated in favor of Archipelago]
* Melting Gold
There's an i... |
0d8c5ab2-2cb7-4092-b628-fc72303ef41d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Berkeley meetup: board game night
Discussion article for the meetup : Berkeley meetup: board game night
WHEN: 05 September 2012 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: Berkeley, CA
Nisan is out of town, so I will be hosting Wednesday's meetup at Zendo. We will be having a board game night. Zendo's game library has Robo ... |
6c920f03-123f-460b-95bf-194f826b2855 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | An Update On The Campaign For AI Safety Dot Org
I am cross posting the below content from [the latest newsletter](https://www.campaignforaisafety.org/email/ccb102db-c74a-4bbf-8677-ef52c567e074/?ref=campaign-for-ai-safety-newsletter) from the campaignforaisafety.org
I did not write this content but as an advocate for... |
ce0e551d-8bdb-4cc4-b012-abf921afc1ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes May 2013
Here's another installment of rationality quotes. The usual rules apply:
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
* Do n... |
1b964292-85fc-4546-8a72-b2ae8c13c17b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | More Hyphenation
> “MAN EATING PIRANHA MISTAKENLY SOLD AS PET FISH” — example news headline from Steven Pinker’s The Sense of Style
The rule is that you use hyphens for compound modifiers like the ones in natural-language processing, high-impact opportunities, cost-effectiveness measures, high-status employers, and s... |
08decc28-f49c-4b1b-9ce2-e6b8d4c1586a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the relative speeds of AI capabilities and AI safety?
If you want to solve AI safety before AI capabilities become too great, then it seems that AI safety must have some of the following:
* More researchers
* Better researchers
* Less necessary insights
* Easier necessary insights
* Ability to steal ins... |
2011bbc7-7ed6-46c3-b340-623c9f31b720 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some thoughts on double crux.
[Epistemic status: quite speculative. I've attended a CFAR workshop including a lesson on double crux, and found it wore counterintuitive than I expected. I ran my own 3-day event going through the CFAR courses with friends, including double crux, but I don't think anyone started doing do... |
b0411a8c-a577-4f79-9916-56cb513068ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI, Animals, & Digital Minds 2025: apply to speak by Wednesday!
AI, Animals, & Digital Minds (AIADM) 2025 is a one-day conference and two-day unconference exploring the intersection of AI and sentient nonhumans, both biological (i.e. animals) and potentially artificial.
Learn more and apply here
Taking place in Londo... |
08091fb7-8902-4164-9039-d7d20ce3c6f8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | ML Safety Newsletter #4
Welcome to the 4th issue of the ML Safety Newsletter. In this edition, we cover:
* How “model-based optimization” environments can be used to research proxy gaming
* How models can express their uncertainty through natural language
* A new plug-and-play state-of-the-art OOD detection technique... |
e2576df8-eeee-460a-907f-19bef8920da0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | April 2019 Newsletter
#### Updates
* New research posts: [Simplified Preferences Needed, Simplified Preferences Sufficient](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/sEqu6jMgnHG2fvaoQ/partial-preferences-needed-partial-preferences-sufficient); [Smoothmin and Personal Identity](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/MxLK2fv... |
ab76f5fd-195e-481c-8453-f1fe06a25c9a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Burdensome Details
> Merely corroborative detail, intended to give artistic verisimilitude to an otherwise bald and unconvincing narrative . . .
>
> —Pooh-Bah, in Gilbert and Sullivan’s The Mikado
The conjunction fallacy is when humans assign a higher probability to a proposition of the form “A and B” than to one of... |
1ce7aafd-a5da-48dc-9e91-3f0c047e7f3f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When you already know the answer - Using your Inner Simulator
I first encountered the idea of Inner Simulators at a CFAR workshop. Credit to them, and read the relevant chapter of their Handbook to see their take. If you’re already familiar with the idea, or find this post slow, I expect you’ll still enjoy the list of... |
370c8cf4-ecc8-43c0-886b-1202951f02ba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Summer MIRI Updates
In our last major updates—our 2017 [strategic update](https://intelligence.org/2017/04/30/2017-updates-and-strategy/) and [fundraiser](https://intelligence.org/2017/12/01/miris-2017-fundraiser/) posts—we said that our current focus is on technical research and executing our biggest-ever [hiring](ht... |
df6a93b8-6b34-49c3-9064-4967220f2837 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] More Bathtubs
An interesting article today on the correlation heuristic/fallacy w.r.t. finance. It describes how anchoring and availability bias contribute to difficulty understanding the difference between stocks and flows. |
7ffa77e1-0ebe-4218-8de5-e585aa83a6a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kurzban et al. on opportunity cost models of mental fatigue and resource-based models of willpower
An opportunity cost model of subjective effort and task performance (h/t lukeprog) is a very interesting paper on why we accumulate mental fatigue: Kurzban et al. suggest an opportunity cost model, where intense focus on... |
34bbc8e3-a509-4766-8abb-44baafb8c20b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Psychological Disorders and Problems
There are two types of psychological issues: disorders and problems.
Disorders are so massive, so life-altering that we can’t miss them: schizophrenia, crippling social anxiety, destructive addiction… They scream “danger” in neon red blinking letters. We know and fear them because... |
9ac7e1bb-9b38-490b-b6dc-dadd9ea6498a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Study of Scarlet: The Conscious Mental Graph
Sequel to: Seeing Red: Dissolving Mary's Room and Qualia
Seriously, you should read first: Dissolving the Question, How an Algorithm Feels From Inside
In the previous post, we introduced the concept of qualia and the thought experiment of Mary's Room, set out to dissolv... |
c3bfe3df-d453-4ad5-9adb-db53d886626e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Conversation with Holden Karnofsky about Future-Oriented Philanthropy
Recently, Eliezer and I had an email conversation with Holden Karnofsky to discuss future-oriented philanthropy, including MIRI. The participants were:
* [Eliezer Yudkowsky](http://yudkowsky.net/) (research fellow at MIRI)
* [Luke Muehlhauser](htt... |
8bb38982-06f2-484f-857f-e441f8c91b6e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AISC Project: Benchmarks for Stable Reflectivity
[*Apply*](https://aisafety.camp/#Projects) *to work on this project with me at AI Safety Camp 2024 before 1st December 2023.*
Summary
======... |
25eafa91-7b62-488d-baee-0d54e8ded07e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Redwood Research’s current project
Here’s a description of the project Redwood Research is working on at the moment. First I’ll say roughly what we’re doing, and then I’ll try to explain why I think this is a reasonable applied alignment project, and then I’ll talk a bit about the takeaways I’ve had from the project s... |
56db5af6-9b59-4cf4-8559-d334da8315e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Simultaneous Footbass and Footdrums
For the past year or so I've had two options for my feet with my rhythm stage setup. I can play bass:
Or I can play drums:
But when I play mandolin I want both!
I tried a system where I play bass but whichever drum pedal I tap triggers a kick as well, which sort of works but ... |
0a6b5fe2-23f3-49af-af1b-a1020d1e934b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | An Architectural Risk Analysis of Machine Learning Systems: Toward More Secure Machine Learning
AN ARCHITECTURAL RISK ANALYSIS OF
MACHINE LEARNING SYSTEMS:
Toward More Secure Machine Learning
Gary McGraw, Ph.D.
Harold Figueroa, Ph.D.
Victor Shepardson
Richie Bonett
Berryville Institute of Machine Learning (BIML)... |
e4e9bb44-4ce3-4f88-b320-1976d394d243 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | It's Time To Stop Dancing
At this point it is likely that the coronavirus will spread widely, and the majority of people will get it. Still, it matters enormously whether we all get it at once, or over a longer period. This is a disease where a lot of people need hospitalization for respiratory problems, and if it spr... |
bf79520e-0afd-4a37-87e0-8959c52cb6d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Relevant pre-AGI possibilities
Epistemic status: I started this as an AI Impacts research project, but given that it’s fundamentally a fun speculative brainstorm, it worked better as a blog post.
The default, when reasoning about advanced artificial general intelligence (AGI), is to imagine it appearing in a world th... |
f772c25a-bdfa-4316-9fb1-8eddbed314d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Subagents, trauma and rationality
[Content note: discussion of trauma, child and sexual abuse, sexual violence, lack of self-worth, dissociation, PTSD, flashbacks, DID, personality disorders; some mildly graphic examples of abuse and trauma mentioned in text form]
> I have spent over two years doing emotional support... |
be75cd7f-798e-465b-9a27-657cbaf04814 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 62: The Stanford Prison Experiment, Final
Minerva gazed up at the clock, the golden hands and silver numerals, the jerking motion. Muggles had invented that, and until they had, wizards had not bothered keeping time. Bells, timed by a sanded hourglass, had served Hogwarts for its classes when it was built. It ... |
02280d68-0a47-4c06-b793-b9c2be4b92fb | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I was somewhat disappointed to find a lack of Magic: the Gathering players on LessWrong when I asked about it in the off-topic thread. You see, competitive Magic is one of the best, most demanding rationality battlefields that I know about. Furthermore, Magic is discussed extensively on the Internet, and many articles... |
e42e1745-2b5e-4ab8-866b-2aa01fe71ff8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pollsters Should Publish Question Translations
Pew recently commissioned Gallup to run a poll in Israel on attitudes to social media censorship. They found high support for banning various kinds of speech:
The fourth question, especially, is disturbing: 59% want to ban publicly expressing sympathy for civilians ... |
0edb6b91-f3f1-4233-b77e-12defbeee86d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Exploring the Platonic Representation Hypothesis Beyond In-Distribution Data
The Platonic Representation Hypothesis (PRH) suggests that models trained with different objectives and on various modalities can converge to a shared statistical understanding of reality. While this is an intriguing idea, initial experiments... |
714a5efe-0266-464d-a2f6-5f753fb7a169 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Antonio Meetup: CFAR Techniques
Discussion article for the meetup : San Antonio Meetup: CFAR Techniques
WHEN: 27 December 2015 02:00:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 12651 Vance Jackson Rd #118, San Antonio, TX 78230
Bubble tea, frozen yogurt, and discussion at Yumi Berry! All are welcome!
New Meetup to discuss ra... |
76f1c21e-783c-414e-8568-a951e2e74013 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Roads are at maximum efficiency always
On a theoretical road, the number of cars traveling is proportional to the speed of each car, so that the total number of motorists is constant regardless of speeds.
Assuming all cars are traveling at a speed that gives 3 seconds of time between cars, any change to speed limit ... |
0e7b6635-f570-4936-a03a-ddf22a11570c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Judgments often smuggle in implicit standards
Our brains often use sleight-of-hand to hide fear-based motivation behind a guise of objectivity. This is particularly linked to the word “good”, which does a lot of work in a lot of people’s psychologies. For example, people often think that they, or their work, is “not g... |
f90d21b2-ebdf-467b-baee-54adc6a60123 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ambient control of the arithmetical hierarchy?
Responding to this: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/8ys/a_way_of_specifying_utility_functions_for_udt/
I had a similar idea a few months ago that highlights different aspects of the problem which I find confusing. In my version the UDT agent controls bits of Chaitin... |
7d11cec7-2bfe-41bf-91c9-51fa2068abc3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Systematic Lucky Breaks
Many people can point to significant events that improved their lives in a positive way. They often refer to these as "lucky breaks", and take it for granted that such events are rare. But most of the time "lucky breaks" don't need to be uncommon-you can often reverse engineer the reasons behin... |
30d8a57c-edc1-4a5b-80eb-9f0ba534a6c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI-Feynman as a benchmark for what we should be aiming for
Very recently, I was made aware of a quite remarkable addition to the world of hobbyist AI in the form of Silviu-Marian Udrescu and Max Tegmarks new AI, 'AI-Feynman'. For those already familiar with the software Eureqa, and its potential to help humanity as a ... |
ad74b835-41ae-4550-9cf9-21f7bb8ed504 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post644
It could be the case that these two goals are separable and independent: “AI safety”: avoiding existential risk, s-risk, actively negative outcomes “AI getting-everything-we-want ” ( CEV ) This is what Davidad calls this the Deontic Sufficiency Hypothesis . If the hypothesis is true, it should be possible ... |
681d0387-3b97-4712-afaf-25c181cabbeb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Non-Adversarial Goodhart and AI Risks
In a recent paper by Scott Garrabrant and myself, we formalized and extended the categories Scott proposed for Goodhart-like phenomena. (If you haven't read either his post or the new paper, it's important background for most of this post.)
Here, I lay out my further intuitions a... |
b3607335-6706-4d67-9a64-70822a83a5c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The lessons of Xanadu
One of my all-time favorite articles is “The Curse of Xanadu,” by Gary Wolf, which ran in WIRED Magazine in 1995. On the surface, it’s a piece of tech history, a story of a dramatic failure. But look closer, and you can find deep philosophical insight.
Xanadu was a grand vision of a hypertext sy... |
6ebd4a35-b0ff-48c7-b5aa-f2430ff2968a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Second-Time Free
Many contra dances have tried a "first-time free" policy, but I think "second-time free" is usually a better choice. Most first-timers show up expecting to pay something, so you might as well take their money. Many first-timers don't end up coming back, so better to reserve your incentive for the ones... |
dcba5f05-766e-4b78-93df-3f691bb41995 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Resurrecting all humans ever lived as a technical problem
Note: the newest version of this essay and its translations to various languages are available at this link.
----------------------------------------
One day, we might be able to bring back to life every human ever lived, by the means of science and technol... |
9fa2675f-78bf-4b2f-a388-a9e6232d5426 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Finite Factored Sets: Introduction and Factorizations
This is a longer, more mathematically dense introduction to "Finite Factored Sets." For a shorter introduction, see my Topos talk/transcript.
----------------------------------------
Abstract: We propose a new approach to temporal inference, inspired by the Pearl... |
062d5bdb-c0be-4960-9433-79281c37c171 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Review and Comparison: Onto-Cartography & Promise Theory
Introduction
This is my first post here, although I've lurked for five or six years. I came up with this idea when I noticed similarities in these two books and reread them - both tackle some flavor of practical ontology, but from different angles. The first is ... |
6132db5c-7855-414b-b47c-cbd926bc2fa5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on open source AI
Epistemic status: I only ~50% endorse this, which is below my typical bar for posting something. I’m more bullish on “these are arguments which should be in the water supply and discussed” than “these arguments are actually correct.” I’m not an expert in this, I’ve only thought about it for ... |
a9256bee-4ff0-4d5a-9d48-e818dd6282a1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | My Advice for Incoming SERI MATS Scholars
I have participated in SERI MATS 2.0 in John's stream. Here is some advice based on my experience.
Be Nice
=======
The AI alignment community is pretty small. If you are an ass, everybody will know that you are an ass. The same holds to a lesser extent for being nice. When I... |
8733268c-a504-4485-af19-5656709588f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You Can Do Futarchy Yourself
Long ago, in the year 2000, Robin Hanson raised the question of whether we should vote on values and bet on beliefs. He proposes a form of government called futarchy, in which people vote on values and bet on beliefs.
Under futarchy, values experts propose measures of global welfare, poli... |
72d0b501-f660-417f-b301-27fad1e71ff0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
From the abstract, emphasis mine:
> The agent, which we refer to as Gato, works as a multi-modal, multi-task, multi-embodiment generalist policy. The same network with the same weights can play Atari, caption images, chat, stackblocks with a real robot arm and much more, deciding bas... |
e3a1d2ba-1dff-410a-b506-72b17b811ed9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Dependent messages can be encoded cheaply
Say you want to transmit a [2-message](https://arbital.com/p/3v9), a 4-message, and a 256-message to somebody. For example, you might want to tell them which way a coin came up, a cardinal direction, and a letter (encoded as one byte of [ASCII](https://arbital.com/p/https://en... |
104267e9-101f-4940-960c-ff2e64ec2a14 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anchoring focalism and the Identifiable victim effect: Bias in Evaluating AGI X-Risks
Anchoring focalism
The tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor", on one trait or piece of information when making decisions – usually the first piece of information that we acquire on that subject.
Examples:
* Judging the conte... |
76c9af02-5ae8-40bb-950b-c90fb669ed39 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Neural uncertainty estimation review article (for alignment)
EDIT 1/27: This post neglects the entire sub-field of estimating uncertainty of learned representations, as in https://openreview.net/pdf?id=e9n4JjkmXZ. I might give that a separate follow-up post.
Introduction
Suppose you've built some AI model of huma... |
2838892f-d2cc-4410-b552-445b09954f4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The (Unofficial) Rationality: A-Z Anki Deck
I'm a huge fan of Anki. I love being able to remember what I read for however long I want to. However, most Anki decks I've found about rationality are nonexistent, unhelpful, out of date, or poorly formatted.
Recently, I found this post from 2023 that used GPT-4 to make a ... |
ec25ab43-8d62-49c4-b7b2-5679ac7ec938 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Taming the Fire of Intelligence
A recent article by Max Hellriegel Holderbaum and me raised the worry that AI alignment might be impossible in principle. The article has not gotten the attention it deserves and I suspect there are three main reasons for this. First, it is quite long. Secondly, a huge chunk of it devel... |
0bc8ff24-698a-4e29-93ef-cdd723143b03 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | To use computers well, learn their rules
To use computers effectively, you don't need to learn a lot about particular programs and features. Learn the near-universal rules of computing and common interface designs. The details are readily inferred.
The rules also apply to things beyond what you might think of as "com... |
862bc02f-c5cd-4aa1-b547-4e710f8250d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self-supervised learning & manipulative predictions
Abstract: I wrote recently about Self-Supervised Learning and AGI Safety in general. This post discusses one potential failure mode in more detail. Take a self-supervised learning system, designed to output accurate predictions for masked parts of a data-file. Now pu... |
e03cc813-d741-4ff8-a00d-3eee5c0abb33 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Case for Overconfidence is Overstated
(Written with Matthew Mandelkern.)
TLDR: When asked to make interval estimates, people appear radically overconfident—far more so than when their estimates are elicited in other ways. But an accuracy-informativity tradeoff can explain this: asking for intervals incentivizes p... |
9281aee8-1d9b-4b91-822e-4813b33d4d2e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Transcript of a Twitter Discussion on EA from June 2022
Recently on Twitter, in response to seeing a contest announcement asking for criticism of EA, I offered some criticism of that contest’s announcement.
That sparked a bunch of discussion about central concepts in Effective Altruism. Those discussions ended up i... |
53bdcbcd-74e3-4534-8b03-b2c93433432e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My script for organizing OBNYC meetups
(I wrote this about a year ago, so parts of it might be out of date; I'm not much involved with OBNYC anymore.)
Context
Overcoming Bias NYC, the rationalist meetup in New York City, has for the last several years had a system of rotating month captains, who each volunteer to ... |
9dc56038-9fbd-48b6-a384-58b329a32b11 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Extortionate" strategy beats tit-for-tat in iterated Prisoner's Dilemma
Less Wrong had a Prisoner's Dilemma contest some time back, whose results I've forgotten. Perhaps it should be rerun with William H. Press & Freeman Dyson's proposed extortionate strategies.
I hope Pinker gives a response at Edge.org, since P.D ... |
21655769-e5d4-4b47-ac1b-649ac20776c8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Daisy-chaining epsilon-step verifiers
Question regarding an alignment problem: one of the key difficulties in alignment is (said by Eliezer Yudkowsky to be) that if "the verifier is broken" (i.e. the human verifier measuring alignment can be fooled by the [alien actress](https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/16288379... |
952d305c-f58c-445e-ac09-4cf1dc495d5c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Edinburgh LW meetup, Saturday May 28, 2pm
Location: Delhi Cafe, 67 Nicolson Street
Map: http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?ie=UTF8&t=h&cid=1874860554950886070
I will be there with the Oxford Book of Aphorisms (let me know if you object to this)
Apologies for the fact that there was no meetup last week, some coordinati... |
8dcec0ea-f4c1-4f43-8cad-277be8a6e727 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Forgiveness
This post examines the virtues of forgiveness, mercy, clemency, and epieikeia. I mostly explore what other people have learned about these virtues, rather express my own opinions about them, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. I ... |
0107f8f6-3d53-4a12-82f7-a7abb2d07203 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Capability amplification
(Note: In the past I have referred to this process as ‘bootstrapping’ or ‘policy amplification,’ but those terms are too broad — there are other dimensions along which policies can be amplified, and ‘bootstrapping’ is used all over the place.)
Defining the “intended behavior” of a powerful AI... |
101dd6c2-6403-4e2f-b3ab-0f8b587b916d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Preprint is out! 100,000 lumens to treat seasonal affective disorder
Let’s give people with winter depression (seasonal affective disorder, SAD) LOTS OF LIGHT and see what happens!
Our preprint is out now for our paper “100,000 lumens to treat seasonal affective disorder: A proof of concept RCT of bright, whole-room,... |
4adfe0ac-96aa-4cb8-bf29-f14c35824a42 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stupid Questions June 2017
This thread is for asking any questions that might seem obvious, tangential, silly or what-have-you. Don't be shy, everyone has holes in their knowledge, though the fewer and the smaller we can make them, the better.
Please be respectful of other people's admitting ignorance and don't mock ... |
623ef0c8-37eb-4018-90c1-d13eb4492b70 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Miles Brundage Limitations and Risks of Machine Ethics FHI Winter Intelligence
so my talk is on limitations and risks
of machine ethics and by that i mean
reasons why it's difficult to ensure
that machines behave in a reliably
ethical fashion
the term machine ethics has
traditionally been used to refer to
near-term a... |
89678ca7-051f-4c9b-88ee-d86d390fd566 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Durham NC/Triangle Area: Value of Information/Curiosity
Discussion article for the meetup : Durham NC/Triangle Area: Value of Information/Curiosity
WHEN: 01 August 2013 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 420 WEST Geer St., Durham NC 27701
Meet at Cocoa Cinnamon for discussion and activities on Value of Information ... |
66fcaf38-e77f-431f-80b0-83986ae46f32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Worst Problem You've Ever Encountered and Solved. And the One You Didn't, Yet!
EDIT: No one was doing what the post suggests, so I accepted an idea from one of the comments, and embedded my response in a comment, not the post itself
I'd like to ask this question to you, and I'll respond it myself as well.
Wha... |
2cf4b7af-f948-44b8-8475-7dfad56b3744 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Tools for Existential Security
Rapid AI progress is the greatest driver of existential risk in the world today. But — if handled correctly — it could also empower humanity to face these challenges.
Executive summary
1. Some AI applications will be powerful tools for navigating existential risks
Three clusters of... |
b3882565-ec9c-4ef8-af1c-f8287e4da451 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayesianism and use of Evidence in Social Deduction Games
You look around the table at four friends -- people who share your hatred for the evil empire, or so you thought. At this table, where the resistance meet to plan their missions, fully two of five the operatives are spies, infiltrating the rebels to sabotage th... |
0e804408-d524-4581-935e-dbf4e026ef41 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Representational Tethers: Tying AI Latents To Human Ones
*This post is part of my* [*hypothesis subspace*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/H3xEgE7bPGKvucfQk) *sequence, a living collection of proposals I'm exploring at* [*Refine.*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5uiQkyKdejX3aEHLM/how-to-diversify-conceptual-alignment-the... |
ba3dd326-dbc2-48fb-9f66-413bf8402108 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
WHEN: 06 November 2016 04:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture
We will be meeting in the courtyard to hang out, play games, and engage in fun conversation.
(Reminder... |
28167079-74e1-4fa6-b567-987fee3c5ec0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Everything's normal until it's not
*Note: This is a quick write-up of some thoughts I've had recently about communicating AI risk.*
There are two claims I wish to argue for concerning understanding and communicating AI risk. Neither of them is entirely original, but I thought it is worth articulating them clearly... |
d4de5545-40e2-412e-858b-2dab49edf544 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/distill | Distill Scientific Journal | A Discussion of 'Adversarial Examples Are Not Bugs, They Are Features': Learning from Incorrectly Labeled Data
#rebuttal,
.comment-info {
background-color: hsl(54, 78%, 96%);
border-left: solid hsl(54, 33%, 67%) 1px;
padding: 1em;
color: hsla(0, 0%, 0%, 0.67);
}
#header-info {
margin-top: 0;
margin-bottom: 1... |
3bc87e1a-1117-4536-a894-83faee15b96d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Absolute denial for atheists
This article is a deliberate meta-troll. To be successful I need your trolling cooperation. Now hear me out.
In The Strangest Thing An AI Could Tell You Eliezer talks about asognostics, who have one of their arm paralyzed, and what's most interesting are in absolute denial of this - in sp... |
0f51d12c-af00-43f0-bacc-67e37b62eab4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Long-Term Future Fund Ask Us Anything (September 2023)
The Long-Term Future Fund has an AMA up on the Effective Altruism Forum.
There’s no real deadline for questions, but let’s say we have a soft commitment to focus on questions asked on or before September 8th.
I'd prefer centralizing the questions to one place. I... |
9a288713-b294-4c7f-ae75-ccd491f5a8e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In praise of emotive communication
|
5a30ba7c-9079-4478-aab1-848e09a07f8a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Google's Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt: apparently a transhumanist
It makes a lot of sense for the Google people to be transhumanist, with Sergey Brin and Larry Page working with the Singularity University, but still I was surprised to hear this on the new Colbert Report (of the 23rd of April):
> Colbert: Can I liv... |
8f8b0a49-55fb-458c-bcaf-384aaf7d9061 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Private Manned Moonbase in the 1990s, Yet Another Planning Fallacy
Back in the 1990s I came across a site describing a plan for returning to the moon via privately funded enterprise. They presented a Reference Mission, a timeline (raise some money now, design the hardware, build the hardware, hire a launch vehicle, ge... |
f89a45ee-d9ad-4fa6-806a-0ac46997c86f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Reading Group: Part H: Against Doublethink
This is part of a semi-monthly reading group on Eliezer Yudkowsky's ebook, Rationality: From AI to Zombies. For more information about the group, see the announcement post.
----------------------------------------
Welcome to the Rationality reading group. This f... |
af93afbc-dd9e-4a48-a18a-b920071292d7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dating Roundup #6
Previously: #1, #2, #3, #4, #5
Dating Roundup #4 covered dating apps. Roundup #5 covered opening without them.
Dating Roundup #6 covers everything else.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. You’re Single Because You Can’t Handle Basic Logistics.
2. You’re Single Because You Don’t Ask Questions.
3. You’re S... |
1a0270ae-eb68-4380-b43a-dec6bedff106 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Reflectively consistent degree of freedom
A "reflectively consistent degree of freedom" is when a self-modifying AI can have multiple possible properties $X_i \in X$ such that an AI with property $X_1$ wants to go on being an AI with property $X_1,$ and an AI with $X_2$ will ceteris paribus only choose to self-modify ... |
fda55b06-122c-418c-a407-6a1c71ba1070 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Communication: A Simple Multi-Stage Model
[Communication is a lot like a game of telephone. Information needs to flow from your head to the the medium to the other person to the other person's head. As a result, there are lots of places where miscommunication can happen. Some actionable suggestions are given for how t... |
db341733-14d0-4b6b-af9b-732daaf3c409 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fun math facts about 2023
2023=7×172
Maybe that's not fun enough? Try this:
2023=211−52
Or better yet:
20233=31176029+245568392384321573
We can scientifically quantify how fun a math fact is, so we can rest assured that this is the funnest fact about 2023 ever discovered.
But if it's not to your liking:
2023=21... |
3d55e745-bfbe-49d5-96c9-2cd1fa1a01f6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Student competition for drafting a treaty on moratorium of large-scale AI capabilities R&D
[**Campaign for AI safety**](https://www.campaignforaisafety.org/)has announced a competition for the drafting of an international treaty on moratorium of large-scale AI capabilities research and development.
The competition is... |
cf045f98-8f99-4730-8a74-69ee0db6c6a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Decentralized Autonomous Education" - Call for Reviewers (Seeds of Science)
Abstract
We propose a novel model for teaching and learning called Decentralized Autonomous Education (DAE for short). DAE exploits the dual principles of freedom and responsibility, meritocracy and inclusivity, privacy and transparency in th... |
ed470a3d-df4b-4bd3-8043-b5b35ff4141a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Will Values and Competition Decouple?
There are a great many forces shaping the evolution of the universe. Among them, the values of agents -- systems which attempt to optimize, or steer the future towards certain configurations over others -- seem likely to have a dominant influence on the long-term future. The value... |
689b6245-6db7-4c1d-bc59-bd790845b5aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Public Opinion on AI Safety: AIMS 2023 and 2021 Summary
Here we briefly summarize the results so far from our U.S. nationally representative survey on Artificial Intelligence, Morality, and Sentience (AIMS), conducted in 2021 and 2023. The full reports are available on Sentience Institute’s website for the AIMS 2023 S... |
152d7083-6f16-4bac-8004-ec3a50568989 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3099
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here . In particular, you can sign up , or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter. I'm always happy to hear feedback; you can send it to me by replying to this email. Audio version here (may not be up yet). Highlights AI... |
dd661ac8-783f-457e-a0ea-7a54ea07e452 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Handshakes, Hi, and What's New: What's Going On With Small Talk?
This is an attempt to explicitly model what's going on in some small talk conversations. My hope is that at least one of these things will happen:
* There is a substantial flaw or missing element to my model that someone will point out.
* Many readers... |
59a57389-c760-4819-9031-845ed77c5267 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A poem about applied rationality by ChatGPT
In a world of chaos and confusion,
Where emotions often rule the day,
It can be hard to see the truth,
And make decisions in a clear and wise way.
But there is a path to clarity,
A way to think that's reasoned and refined,
It's called applied rationality,
And it can help us... |
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