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43545505-35e4-4c93-afaa-895a58a43bbf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Logical counterfactuals and differential privacy
Edit: This article has major flaws. See my comment below.
This idea was informed by discussions with Abram Demski, Scott Garrabrant, and the MIRIchi discussion group.
Summary
For a logical inductor P, define logical counterfactuals by
Pn(ϕ|ψ):=∑yPk(ϕ|ψ∧Y=y)Pn(Y=y)
... |
42d3e6bd-59a6-4f75-80e7-2a3672063a42 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Open Problems with Myopia
Thanks to Noa Nabeshima for helpful discussion and comments.
Introduction
============
Certain types of myopic agents represent a possible way to construct safe AGI. We call agents with a time discount rate of zero *time-limited myopic*, a particular instance of the broader class of myopi... |
ca3ea54e-990b-48f9-87be-e1a631f9f540 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Melbourne Meetup: Friday 6th May, 6pm
When: Friday 6th May, 18:00
Where: TrikeApps office, lvl 2, 55 Walsh St, West Melbourne 3003 (http://trikeapps.com/contact)
Directions:
Enter the somewhat unfriendly building, climb the stairs to the top (2 floors), and turn left.
No wheelchair access (sorry - if you need help th... |
13976cd7-2ec8-4eef-bd61-afa0b7d50828 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | RL with KL penalties is better seen as Bayesian inference
This blog post is largely based on an EMNLP paper with Ethan Perez and Chris Buckley. It also benefited from discussions with and comments from Hady Elsahar, Germán Kruszewski, Marc Dymetman and Jérémy Scheurer.
TLDR: KL-regularised RL, widely used as part of ... |
99a601d1-2ca6-4b5a-8ce3-8f92412966bd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Zero-Shot Text-to-Image Generation
1 Introduction
---------------
Modern machine learning approaches to text to image synthesis started with the work of Mansimov et al. ([2015](#bib.bib38 "Generating images from captions with attention")), who showed that the DRAW Gregor et al. ([2015](#bib.bib39 "Draw: a recurrent... |
9d9ae378-4242-4974-afe5-e5c7a2c839f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Frida van Lisa, a short story about adversarial AI attacks on humans
Lights
Aurelio is stuck looking at the back of his car. Seems there is a note for him in Hebrew, written by finger on the dusty window. There is only one person that speaks it in his inner circle, his best friend Chloe, who he hasn’t seen for a while... |
7a8d5dd8-cfdc-4630-83e7-82ca0dbab1d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Recursive Self-Modeling as a Plausible Mechanism for Real-time Introspection in Current Language Models
(and as a completely speculative hypothesis for the minimum requirements for sentience in both organic and synthetic systems)
Factual and Highly Plausible
* Model latent space self-organizes during training. We k... |
e2c87961-567a-4a47-be1c-96d616264da0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What role should LW play in AI Safety?
Many people on LW consider AI Safety either the most, or one of the most, important issues that humanity has to deal with. Surprisingly, I've seen very little discussion about how the LW community slots in here. I'm sure that the Lightcone team has discussed this extensively, but... |
91f39773-e411-44ce-95e4-156b5d8f963f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Pittsburgh Meetup: Big Gaming Fun 5!
Discussion article for the meetup : Pittsburgh Meetup: Big Gaming Fun 5!
WHEN: 29 April 2012 12:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 1324 Wightman St., Pittsburgh, PA 15217
You can see my game collection here; please bring anything else you'd like to play. We can order food and go as... |
2d2571a5-850a-4ad5-bd10-ad55e3ac1a00 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Some thought experiments on digital consciousness
These are some hypothetical scenarios involving emulating a (human) mind on a digital computer. They seem to present counterintuitive implications for the question of whether an emulated mind would actually be conscious or not. This relates to the question of whether c... |
739d4068-7566-4bd6-b264-25deb3e166bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 19 as a Fermi Paradox Zoo Hypothesis Subset (Laboratory Hypothesis) Nudge Point
One quite well known solution to the Fermi Paradox is John Ball's 1973 Zoo Hypothesis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoo_hypothesis), i.e., the hypothesis that alien life intentionally avoids communication with Earth, with one of its... |
b84d0e61-5232-4676-b4b2-e377c6142a54 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I'm starting a game company and looking for a co-founder.
Summary: I am looking for co-founder(s) to start a game company with me. If you, or anyone you know, is interested, please contact me. (Alternatively, if you want to invest or provide funding, that would be very nice in its own right.)
It recently occurred t... |
05a06268-2181-4cae-b80d-f683a6e775a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Urging an International AI Treaty: An Open Letter
> We call on governments worldwide to actively respond to the potentially catastrophic risks posed by advanced artificial intelligence (AI) systems to humanity, encompassing threats from misuse, systemic risks, and loss of control. We advocate for the development and r... |
d8314765-76dc-47ea-b156-83b3a7b76963 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup - Reasoning About Politics
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup - Reasoning About Politics
WHEN: 10 October 2012 01:06:09PM (-0700)
WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064
When: 7:00pm Wednesday, October 10th.
Where: The Westside Tavern in the upstairs Wine Bar (all... |
81634e15-4676-4bf2-97fc-f1b9d5ccac63 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Becoming Clueless
It is said that every year the IQ needed to destroy the world drops by one point.
Well, yes, but let me add a different spin on the problem:
Every year, the IQ needed to make sense of the world raises by one point.
If your IQ is 100 and you want to see yourself in 2039 just ask somebody with IQ... |
08f1b2f5-8325-46f1-8484-49a9401f09ec | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Time for AI to cross the human performance range in Go
*Posted 15 Oct 2020; updated 19 Oct 2020*
Progress in computer Go performance took:
* 0-19 years to go from the first attempt to playing at human beginner level (<1987)
* >30 years to go from human beginner level to superhuman level (<1987-2017)
* 3 years to g... |
72e93c7b-3c7c-49ac-bc56-04bb3f7e65b7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Confusions re: Higher-Level Game Theory
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; floa... |
881dc7f3-ddcf-441a-834f-e7613731cf32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Complexity Penalties in Statistical Learning
I am currently taking a course on statistical learning at the Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute Summer School. One idea that has appeared many times in the course is that a more complicated model is likely to have many short comings. This is because complicated mod... |
a73ce761-91e7-48a2-96b8-0ac424744ec1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | CCS on compound sentences
Finding internal knowledge representation(s) inside transformer models without supervision is certainly a challenging task which is important for scalable oversight and to mitigate the deception risk factor. I’m testing Contrast-Consistent Search (CCS[1]) on TruthfulQA[2] dataset for compound... |
b05d3608-966f-4518-a9ab-6a55051d3000 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Active Reward Learning from Multiple Teachers.
Active Reward Learning from Multiple Teachers
Peter Barnett1,*, Rachel Freedman1, Justin Svegliato1and Stuart Russell1
1Center for Human-Compatible AI, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Abstract
Reward learning algorithms utilize human feedback to infer a ... |
ea07edd2-5076-4cf6-9335-56961eb4f368 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | [linkpost] When does technical work to reduce AGI conflict make a difference?: Introduction
This sequence discusses circumstances under which AGIs may engage in conflict, directions for intervention to reduce risks of AGI conflict, and the implications of intent alignment success or failure for the usefulness of confl... |
e6dfa4b8-f690-4c1f-8647-e0e658315d25 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Understanding Agent Incentives using Causal Influence Diagrams. Part I: Single Action Settings
|
5bcf4c08-ef18-460a-969a-2b47ffc117d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deconfusing Direct vs Amortised Optimization
This post is part of the work done at Conjecture.
An earlier version of this post was posted here.
Many thanks go to Eric Winsor, Daniel Braun, Chris Scammell, and Sid Black who offered feedback on this post.
TLDR: We present a distinction from the Bayesian/variational i... |
21b812bf-8e7f-403c-a835-01f1ce174b3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | RFC WWIII
> You should ignore the news unless it's of historic import. Russia's invasion of Ukraine constitutes an event of historic import.
>
> — Russia has Invaded Ukraine
One could argue for an even stronger position: you should ignore the news unless it 1) affects you and 2) there is something that you could do ... |
6e1833bb-6083-4c15-b759-e83d9c3ed983 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Brain Efficiency: Much More than You Wanted to Know
What if the brain is *highly efficient*? To be more specific, there are several interconnected key measures of efficiency for physical learning machines:
* energy efficiency in ops/J
* spatial efficiency in ops/mm^2 or ops/mm^3
* speed efficiency in time/delay for ... |
6865174a-a4ed-4433-9eaa-fb1015a872c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationalist Lord of the Rings fanfiction, newly translated from Russian
This may be old news to some people, especially the Russian speakers, but I didn't see an article about it here.
In 1999, Kirill Yeskov, a Russian paleontologist, wrote The Last Ringbearer, a 270-page take on Lord of the Rings from the point of v... |
e94468af-bbdf-4117-927f-8ac3118ec6ab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Run evals on base models too!
(Creating more visibility for a comment thread with Rohin Shah.)
Currently, DeepMind's capabilities evals are run on the post-RL*F (RLHF/RLAIF) models and not on the base models. This worries me because RL*F will train a base model to stop displaying capabilities, but this isn't a guaran... |
037f1cba-393a-4a06-9723-c92a27796592 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Full Transcript: Eliezer Yudkowsky on the Bankless podcast
[*This podcast*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gA1sNLL6yg4) *has gotten a lot of traction, so we're posting a full transcript of it, lightly edited with ads removed, for those who prefer reading over audio.*
[Intro](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gA1sN... |
66594a43-3d4f-4aca-96db-92924a6ad415 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The universality of computation and mind design space
A Turing machine is a universal computer: it can compute anything that any other computer can compute. A human being can specify a Turing machine and the data it's acting on and carry out the steps that the machine would execute. Human beings have also constructed ... |
223ecf4d-bf62-4641-8e2a-b00ae1796ec8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Optimal Policies Tend to Seek Power
1 Introduction
---------------
Instrumental convergence is the idea that some actions are optimal for a wide range of goals: for example, to travel as quickly as possible to a randomly selected coordinate on Earth, one likely begins by driving to the nearest airport. Driving to t... |
f275c4e4-8e2b-4301-b18e-3bf4ec4f981e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Corrigibility doesn't always have a good action to take
In a previous critique of [corrigibility](https://intelligence.org/files/Corrigibility.pdf), I brought up the example of a corrigible AI-butler that was in a situation where it was [forced to determine the human's values](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T5ZyNq3fz... |
e1fa06e2-6c3e-4fe1-9be0-6f7a3e9a0292 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We’ve Been Thinking About Measurement All Wrong
Doug Hubbard’s How to Measure Anything offers social sector professionals a step-by-step guide to counting what counts.
Photo by Annie Spratt on Unsplash
Measurement is not a simple act of observation disconnected from any larger plan. Instead, it’s an optimization stra... |
fe6a3d4a-a847-4828-8f3c-cca27bafe286 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking advice on a moral dilemma
I just found 120 Euro (about $172) on the floor in the hallway in a hostel in Berlin. What should I do, and why?
* It's not inconceivable that the hostel might just take the money if I turn it in.
* I'll be at this hostel for about two more days.
|
417d0712-be38-4603-805b-664b4938e37c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What cognitive biases feel like from the inside
Building on the recent SSC post Why Doctors Think They’re The Best...
What it feels like for meHow I see others who feel the sameThere is controversy on the subject but there shouldn't be because the side I am on is obviously right.They have taken one side in a debate t... |
5bf51f14-22c6-45d6-a253-6d81fb6eb06e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Time Binders
My continued exploration of Korzybski and the history of rationality. |
b7c94038-b177-40cf-9a3d-147ee924d39f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Social Influence as Intrinsic Motivation for Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Intrinsic Motivation for Reinforcement Learning (RL) refers to reward functions that allow agents to learn useful behavior across a variety of tasks and environments, sometimes in the absence of envir... |
b33e8ad2-d927-42c8-a7aa-aba1be2fa5cf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Moral Spillover in Human-AI Interaction
*This is a linkpost for https://www.sentienceinstitute.org/blog/moral-spillover-in-human-ai-interaction*
*Written by Katerina Manoli and Janet Pauketat. Edited by Jacy Reese Anthis. Many thanks to Michael Dello-Iacovo, Merel Keijsers, Ali Ladak, and Brad Saad for their thoughtf... |
137a6376-cee3-4cc1-a3c2-476900d60ae7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Moloch's Toolbox (2/2)
Follow-up to: Moloch's Toolbox (1/2)
----------------------------------------
vii. Sticky traditions in belief-dependent Nash equilibria without common knowledge
cecie: I could talk next about a tax system that makes it cheaper for corporations to pay for care instead of patients, and how... |
844e2cbc-c3df-4ab2-8146-508fdbe36cd3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some alternative AI safety research projects
These are some "alternative" (in the sense of non-mainstream) research projects or questions related to AI safety that seem both relevant and underexplored. If instead you think they aren't, let me know in the comments, and feel free to use the ideas as you want if you find... |
39f6f215-bc9f-4f8f-a0fe-f2d786e8f9c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Number of Members on LessWrong
I wanted to know how many people have joined LessWrong but I couldn't find anything stating the number of members on LessWrong anywhere on the site or the internet, so I decided to MacGyver it out of Google:
site:lesswrong.com/user -"submitted by" -"comments by"
(Translation provided ... |
5c132032-888a-43ec-8963-668564380036 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's the big deal about Bayes' Theorem?
I guess that this kind of question gets asked (and answered) a lot. But I've tried to read a few posts here about Bayes' Theorem and they seem to talk about slightly different things than the question that is bothering me. Maybe I should've read a few more, but since I'm also ... |
b76cd3a9-1b29-47fe-ae2e-5e16e20d7c61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cooperative Oracles: Introduction
This is the first in a series of posts introducing a new tool called a Cooperative Oracle. All of these posts are joint work Sam Eisenstat, Tsvi Benson-Tilsen, and Nisan Stiennon.
Here is my plan for posts in this sequence. I will update this as I go.
1. Introduction
2. Nonexploit... |
5c464e32-0c42-4658-a544-202bd6bbd8e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do you follow AI (safety) news?
A lot is happening. How do you keep on top of things?
For example:
1. What's your process for finding out about important developments?
2. What information sources do you find most useful?
3. What are some problems with your current process?
I'll share my answers in a comment ... |
090496d5-fd62-4b77-a137-f309d4abfcb7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | ChatGPT is capable of cognitive empathy!
ChatGPT is capable of cognitive empathy! is a substack post by Robert Wright in which he explains how ChatGPT seems to have spontaneously develop theory of mind (cognitive empathy). A classic kind of theory of mind test --known as the false belief test-- is: "You say to a perso... |
cc3be5c8-45af-4bba-a6af-b573fb3ab144 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Arbitrary Math Questions
Purpose: This post is so I can record math-ish questions I have, which I want answers to, but don't merit their own post or pestering the community about directly. My expectation is they will mostly yield to a little research. If you have the answer or a relevant source, please feel free to me... |
b54f3984-4852-45db-9fe0-8b013c29861a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Will GPT-5 be able to self-improve?
I want to try to go over some of the objections imagine people are having. I don't think I fully understand the opposing viewpoint here, so hopefully it will be clarified for me in the comments.
1. LLMs are not truly generating novel ideas, they are just interpolating between ex... |
a0b3fa04-4a64-4367-bab0-9fa28a74446b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Google's Imagen uses larger text encoder
https://imagen.research.google/
Scaling the text encoder gives Imagen the ability to spell, count, and assign colors and properties to distinct objects in the image that DALL-E2 was not so great at. It looks visually about as photorealistic as DALL-E2 from the small set of sam... |
16df1d36-2e49-4fb7-9193-2835f10bc222 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Happiness Is a Chore
None |
29c43e1c-3c7b-41ae-957e-8f2e9d6882a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Accelerating personal growth: a mashup of models
I wrote this in 2018, as part of a rationalist co-housing project with lofty goals (some of you might remember the Accelerator). It's been sitting on Arbital since then, but I've recently been reducing the amount of websites that have my name on it, so I'm republishing ... |
4c9e45a6-b3d5-4391-8e33-c5f32132c405 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What recent academic areas of study have a sample size that is 'too small'?
In an article in Nature magazine, Scott Marek et al. [1] asserts that current studies that link behaviour to brain imaging have datasets which are too small to be reliable. In taking a larger dataset and reproducing previously established res... |
ff2a9cbe-a6dc-4a68-b602-7091351badd1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are you working on? October 2013
This is the supposedly-bimonthly-but-we-keep-skipping 'What are you working On?' thread. Previous threads are here. So here's the question:
What are you working on?
Here are some guidelines:
* Focus on projects that you have recently made progress on, not projects that you're... |
f746b42f-f5e3-4c0a-a8bf-b48b5c05322e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Alignment Open Thread August 2019
This is an experiment in having an Open Thread dedicated to AI Alignment discussion, hopefully enabling researchers and upcoming researchers to ask small questions they are confused about, share very early stage ideas and have lower-key discussions. |
6b510aa3-3893-4030-9cb3-6c99fa18b51a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to title your blog post or whatever
So you’ve made a thing. I’ll pretend it’s a blog post, though it doesn’t really matter. If people read your thing, some would like it, and some wouldn’t.
You should try to make a good thing, that many people would like. That presents certain challenges. But our subject today is... |
178cef86-0586-4278-9f8b-2ee5577798eb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | 258. How might we align transformative AI if it's developed very soon? 1/3
foreign
258 in the AI safety.com reading group
tonight we will be discussing how might
we align transformative AI if it's
developed very soon by Halton kanovsky
Halton kanovsky is the current co-ceo of
open philanthropy and the co-founder o... |
4545f03d-b636-40ae-8ea2-078c81fed075 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Relevance of Advanced Vocabulary to Rationality
Edit: I realise that I foolishly over-complicated and worded my question in a way that obscured what I actually meant. In essence, my question was: if we didn't have specialised vocabulary for things - say, in the area of rationality - would our rationality be hamper... |
e9c08617-4ffa-4049-8d4a-757c19c63489 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Can't Unbirth a Child
Today's post, Can't Unbirth a Child was originally published on 28 December 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> As a piece of meta advice for how to act when you have more power than you probably should, avoid doing things that cannot be undone. Creating a new sentient bei... |
fa749ef4-2519-4451-aae5-15a081f07300 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Predicting Human Similarity Judgments Using Large Language Models..
Predicting Human Similarity Judgments Using Large Language Models
Raja Marjieh1,*, Ilia Sucholutsky2,*, Theodore R. Sumers2,
Nori Jacoby3, Thomas L. Griffiths1,2
1Department of Psychology, Princeton University
2Department of Computer Science, Princeton... |
f633544b-63c4-4f10-957c-8770b687f285 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a better way to define groups for COVID-19 impact?
I think everyone who has posted a table of stats for COVID-19 infection or deaths seems to do a 10 year grouping. For example here. (Used only because I was looking at that post when it occurred to me.)
However, my understanding is that physiological changes... |
fcd9c938-8f40-4de3-af66-d5ff8a05ad40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Chesterton's Fence
TLDR; Chesterton’s Fences are important, and very hard to identify/evaluate. With finite time, bountiful stupidity and inflated egos, it is too easy to not look deeply enough at existing ways of doing things and understand why they are the way they are before attempting to “fix” them. Reading Sec... |
1dfe0a45-3643-4c99-b02c-d44c4df1d634 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] A Review and Summary of John Harris's Case for Chemical Enhancement
http://philosophicaldisquisitions.blogspot.com/2011/10/john-harris-on-chemical-enhancement.html |
9068f8e3-56a8-4193-90e8-ae877dd88d52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong |
Zero to One: A Minimum Viable Review
This is Peter Thiel’s matrix:
In his book, Zero To One, and in this talk at SXSW, Thiel essentially explains that where we are as a society on this matrix defines how we act and what we do. Every quadrant is a religion, and each religion has a doctrine:
1. Indefinite pessimism:... |
23b90658-c40a-4a86-91d2-48735c1d0b9c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ineffective entrepreneurship: post-mortem of Hippo, the happiness app that never quite was
" I spent two and half years trying to start a startup I thought might do lots of good. It failed. I explain what happened, how it went wrong and try to set out some relevant lessons for others. Main lesson: be prepared for the ... |
fb0213b4-d2f3-456f-b392-504b868a71ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Francisco / App Academy meetup [LOCATION CHANGE]
Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco / App Academy meetup [LOCATION CHANGE]
WHEN: 07 December 2013 07:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: Olivos Restaurant 1017 Larkin Street San Francisco, CA 94109
I've recently arrived in San Francisco for App Academy,... |
10e4c3d1-f59b-4766-b1b8-32d055f4ac31 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Reasoning about Counterfactuals and Explanations: Problems, Results and Directions
|
8ddbafab-7da6-4531-8939-68fda4f3b42d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Without fundamental advances, misalignment and catastrophe are the default outcomes of training powerful AI
A pdf version of this report is available here.
Summary
In this report we argue that AI systems capable of large scale scientific research will likely pursue unwanted goals and this will lead to catastrophic o... |
9bb093e9-678c-4214-ab66-b2209e242700 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | An AI Realist Manifesto: Neither Doomer nor Foomer, but a third more reasonable thing
Cross-posted from [substack](https://pashanomics.substack.com/p/an-ai-realist-manifesto-neither-doomer)
AI has been a hot topic in recent Twitter discourse, with two opposing camps dominating the conversation: the Doomers and the AI... |
1c62ff10-3e62-4877-a9b4-786755da95be | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | AI Foom Debate
# The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate {style="text-align:center"}
## Robin Hanson and Eliezer Yudkowsky {.sigil\_not\_in\_toc style="text-align:center"}
> ::: {.center}
> Robin Hanson is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity I... |
bcdf63a4-8e54-4882-8abd-01ca43d17381 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Algebraic structure
Roughly speaking, an algebraic structure is a set $X$, known as the [underlying set](https://arbital.com/p/3gz), paired with a collection of [operations](https://arbital.com/p/3h7) that obey a given set of laws. For example, a [group](https://arbital.com/p/3gd) is a set paired with a single binary ... |
b66423fb-c8da-4d23-a5fb-53b5c4db83fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Students asked to defend AGI danger update in favor of AGI riskiness
From Geoff Anders of Leverage Research:
> In the Spring semester of 2011, I decided to see how effectively I could communicate the idea of a threat from AGI to my undergraduate classes. I spent three sessions on this for each of my two classes. My g... |
feb1a717-3a5a-4294-91ba-c0dafd6af46b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Climbing the Horseshoe
EXPOSITION (PLUS AN EXAMPLE EXCULPATING EXPORTS)
Trump won the election, and people are blaming polarization. WSJ – Trump benefited from polarization, Global Research – polarization made Trump unavoidable, Reason – Trump won because of the PC culture war, Guardian – Did fake news and polarized ... |
6151b6ce-22bb-489a-919c-e56c40812a21 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes 12
"Even if I had an objective proof that you don't find it unpleasant when you stick your hand in a fire, I still think you’d pull your hand out at the first opportunity."
-- John K Clark
"So often when one level of delusion goes away, another one more subtle comes in its place."
-... |
624613cb-5842-4d72-a6f4-d359210f1538 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Affective Death Spirals
Many, many, many are the flaws in human reasoning which lead us to overestimate how well our beloved theory explains the facts. The phlogiston theory of chemistry could explain just about anything, so long as it didn’t have to predict it in advance. And the more phenomena you use your favored t... |
5bee4f1d-c11b-44f2-930a-1ed86484ff50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Secure homes for digital people
Being a “digital person” could be scary—if I don’t have control over the hardware I’m running on, then someone else could get my code and run tons of copies in horrible conditions. (See also: qntm’s Lena.)
It would be great to guarantee digital people some control over their situation:... |
850e4cd4-353a-4a2c-a40a-f075fed58b68 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against sacrificing AI transparency for generality gains
One of the cornerstone issue of AI alignment is the black box problem. Our machine learning models are inscrutable tables of floating point numbers and we don't know how to decpher them to understand what is actually going on inside. This is bad. Everyone seem t... |
94c5cf2e-6d88-406c-b248-18e90c1722de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quixey is hiring a writer
We've posted about jobs at Quixey before:
Quixey - startup applying LW-style rationality - hiring engineers
Since then we've hired LessWrong user cata. And it occurred to us that the LessWrong community is not only full of software engineers, it's also full of unusually strong writers.
... |
345e32ee-b817-4323-b40f-db846926c8d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SHIFT relies on token-level features to de-bias Bias in Bios probes
In Sparse Feature Circuits (Marks et al. 2024), the authors introduced Spurious Human-Interpretable Feature Trimming (SHIFT), a technique designed to eliminate unwanted features from a model's computational process. They validate SHIFT on the Bias in ... |
21925612-744c-42e0-b55e-2f1ba1871fae | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | QuantifyML: How Good is my Machine Learning Model?
1 Introduction
---------------
Recent years have seen a surge in the use of machine learning algorithms in a variety of applications to analyze and learn from large amounts of data. For instance, decision-trees are a popular class of supervised learning that can le... |
374abfee-57d8-4cb0-9b3b-4cc488e2bbd8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Clarifying inner alignment terminology
I have seen a lot of confusion recently surrounding exactly how outer and inner alignment should be defined and I want to try and provide my attempt at a clarification.
Here's my diagram of how I think the various concepts should fit together:
The idea of this diagram is that... |
5dc792ee-39eb-40c8-9d12-29d46b08f020 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Have you changed your mind recently?
Our beliefs aren't just cargo that we carry around. They become part of our personal identity, so much so that we feel hurt if we see someone attacking our beliefs, even if the attacker isn't speaking to us individually. These "beliefs" are not necessarily grand things like moral f... |
d1635cbc-5fb4-4de8-93d1-1f2765c059c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Fall of Rome: Why It's Relevant, And Why We're Mistaken
The standard view of the fall of the Roman Empire is horrifying and deeply troubling. A long time ago, there was a prosperous empire. They created advanced technology and complex philosophy. After existing for many centuries, violent barbarians invaded, endin... |
9ea9e263-ebce-480b-9d36-2d6adb229642 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Think it Faster" worksheet
None |
90020b36-5b86-449b-957e-479546a40d6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is Intelligence?
As far as Artificial Intelligence is concerned, what is "intelligence"? The definition I see on various sites like Wikipedia:
> Intelligence has been defined in many different ways including as one's capacity for logic, understanding, self-awareness, learning, emotional knowledge, planning, crea... |
69982f5b-ab10-4a1b-9b85-a17efddda888 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "In classical logic, the operational definition of identity is that whenever 'A=B' is a theorem, you can substitute 'A' for 'B' in any theorem where B appears. For example, if (2 + 2) = 4 is a theorem, and ((2 + 2) + 3) = 7 is a theorem, then (4 + 3) = 7 is a theorem.
This leads to a problem which is usually phrased in... |
2f7bedd4-6a4d-4da0-b670-c0cba111aef1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | How an alien theory of mind might be unlearnable
**EDIT**: *This is a post about an alien mind being unlearnable in practice. As a reminder, theory of mind is unlearnable in theory, as stated [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.05812) - there is more information in "preferences + (ir)rationality" than there is in "behav... |
0ca296df-9c54-4a03-99b4-ac648a841947 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reseach questions
This thread originally contained a list of research questions grouped by topic that were of personal interest to me. Thanks to the comments, I recognise that this kind of post is a poor fit for the community. Feel free to use this space to discuss research question generation. |
a5d830d1-3287-49b0-9eab-28678cac7e7c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Maxent and Abstractions: Current Best Arguments
*This post is not-very-distilled and doesn’t contain much background; it’s intended for people who already have the context of*[*at least*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dNzhdiFE398KcGDc9/testing-the-natural-abstraction-hypothesis-project-update)[*these*](https://www.l... |
10e98fc2-7355-4781-9c1b-d2d35b804485 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Urbana-Champaign: Stoicism, anthropics
Discussion article for the meetup : Urbana-Champaign: Stoicism, anthropics
WHEN: 19 October 2014 02:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 206 S Cedar St, Urbana IL
If you want to read up on Stoicism, check out the encyclopedia of philosophy entry.
For anthropics, see a recent discu... |
75724764-ca94-4fe0-a217-10888395d2fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against neutrality about creating happy lives
(Cross-posted from Hands and Cities)
(Warning: spoilers for the movie American Beauty.)
> “Once for each, just once. Once and no more.
> And for us too, once. Never again. And yet
> it seems that this—to have once existed,
> even if only once, to have been a part
> of th... |
638a2d21-09d6-4889-ac0a-ae914783f543 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why the Kaldor-Hicks criterion can be non-transitive
The following post aims to explain why the diagram below is a proof without words that the Kaldor-Hicks criterion for an improvement in the economy can be non-transitive. This is in response to a request for help from a student of mine who made the request on the Fa... |
26663e40-ec33-4366-88a3-aca615e64dc4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should you refrain from having children because of the risk posed by artificial intelligence?
Eli Lifland discusses AI risk probabilities here.
Scott Alexander talks about how everything will change completely in this post, and then says "There's some chance I'm wrong about a singularity, there's some chance we make ... |
deec8706-c1c1-4517-837f-487fadf7cc14 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [New LW Feature] "Debates"
Following the success of the [2021 MIRI Conversations](http://www.lesswrong.com/sequences/n945eovrA3oDueqtq) in drawing out various people's views on key questions in AI and digging into their disagreements, the LessWrong team was inspired to build a more dedicated feature for hosting deba... |
875a7c58-a010-4217-9590-2737f311e3bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Best Intro to LW article for transhumanists
Summary: if you could show a page of LW to a random student who was interested in science, but couldn't otherwise communicate with them, which page would you choose?
The Oxford University Transhumanist Society is a student society who arrange speakers on transhumanist to... |
fc96d1bc-ef85-4a16-84bd-ceda1fa25e03 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Standard agent properties
### Boundedly rational agents
- Have probabilistic models of the world.
- Update those models in response to sensory information.
- The ideal algorithm for updating is Bayesian inference, but this requires too much computing power and a bounded agent must use some bounded alternative.
- ... |
dc6be24f-0b89-4e12-b102-e0ab50fe9d7a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Open Letter On Love
This post originated as an open letter to my own family this past June, later republished on a political community blog. It was born out of a dissatisfaction with how Love is popularly conceived of, as a vague positive force one pays lip service to, rather than a concrete and potent phenomenon. ... |
d5eabc99-2134-4d6d-be93-e3be93ba53f5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Careers at MIRI
We’ve published a new [Careers](http://intelligence.org/careers/) page, which advertises current job openings at MIRI.
As always, we’re seeking **math researchers** to make progress on Friendly AI theory. If you’re interested, the next step is not to apply for the position directly, but to [apply to ... |
e2473498-881a-4778-9af2-4ae93bb83853 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI as a computing platform: what to expect
Let's just assume for the sake of argument advances in AI continue to stack up.
Then at some point, AI will become our default computing platform.
The way of interacting with digital information. Our main interface with the world.
Does this change everything about our live... |
ba0b3930-4549-4654-9c3d-92dd14c34fcb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | "Wide" vs "Tall" superintelligence
There are 2 distinctive but compatible modes of superintelligence.
First one (arguably what we see right now with latest NNs) - super resource access, but not necessary super skills. Operates not better, maybe even significantly worse, than the person who's able to read entire lib... |
7800fb7a-e83d-481b-a1da-b27a88f2abe0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LLM Applications I Want To See
Midjourney, “artificial intelligence large language model neural network”
I’m convinced that people who are interested in large language models (LLMs) are overwhelmingly focused on general-purpose “performance” at the expense of exploring useful (or fun) applications.
As I’m working on... |
6604ac8d-3198-4c1e-a36e-195358b388dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paper: Superintelligence as a Cause or Cure for Risks of Astronomical Suffering
|
d84b856d-06a2-4225-b2fc-5086abc5cc57 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Salt Lake City: The Really Getting Bayes Game
Discussion article for the meetup : Salt Lake City: The Really Getting Bayes Game
WHEN: 08 July 2012 03:00:53PM (-0600)
WHERE: 1558 Palo Verde Way #12, Cottonwood Heights, Utah 84121
This meetup will be 3pm Sunday, July 8th at Kip's house: 1558 Palo Verde Way, ... |
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