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71df1f9e-e30e-429a-bd50-62a8ee561563 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My current take on logical uncertainty
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b17fb1e2-f3a7-4db2-96c8-c7056157b8c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] A proposed update model for working memory: multiple-component framework
I've seen some discussion on "working memory" and "spaced repetition"
I just read this pop-science article in which a new hypothesis is presented that seems to provide better predictions and test conditions for measuring working memory. M... |
78c72552-ea7a-429f-baea-3ef58b59738c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What is to be done? (About the profit motive)
I've recently started reading posts and comments here on LessWrong and I've found it a great place to find accessible, productive, and often nuanced discussions of AI risks and their mitigation. One thing that's been on my mind is that seemingly everyone takes for granted ... |
3f6ca8f0-f8d1-4939-ae57-778d8b738482 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Minimizing Empowerment for Safety
I haven't put much thought into this post; it's off the cuff.
DeepMind has published a couple of papers on maximizing empowerment as a form of intrinsic motivation for Unsupervised RL / Intelligent Exploration.
I never looked at either paper in detail, but the basic idea is that you... |
8bf2f0c7-de8e-4d90-82f4-ddf52351a6b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on the Presidential Election of 1836
In 1836, Andrew Jackson had served two terms. In the presidential election, incumbent vice president Martin Van Buren defeated several Whig candidates.
Historical Background
By 1836, there were 25 states. States were often added in pairs (one slave and one free) to maintain... |
262102d2-8e92-4d03-a4a1-066cf0becda0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Eating et al.: Study on High/Low Protein | Glycemic-Index
Nutrition and related topics have been a topic a few times here and on related blogs, starting back with Shangri-La, hypoglycemia, and what we should eat.
Now, HT reddit, there seems to be some (new) evidence pro the position I think that quite some people her... |
8c66af7a-e75a-46c1-b5d1-e1c1390852c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a hard copy of the sequences available anywhere?
Forgive me if there's an easily available answer, I have not been able to find it after several attempts. I know there is an ebook but I would like a hard copy of Rationality A-Z or the original sequences as a (set of) books. |
f7155a04-b1a9-4e98-8666-13fe8a30c90b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shut up and do the impossible!
The virtue of tsuyoku naritai, "I want to become stronger", is to always keep improving—to do better than your previous failures, not just humbly confess them.
Yet there is a level higher than tsuyoku naritai. This is the virtue of isshokenmei, "make a desperate effort". All-out, as i... |
6849d832-0a75-4e6f-97bb-da02d0c01092 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The red paperclip theory of status
Followup to: The Many Faces of Status (This post co-authored by Morendil and Kaj Sotala - see note at end of post.)
In brief: status is a measure of general purpose optimization power in complex social domains, mediated by "power conversions" or "status conversions".
What is sta... |
1435950f-0e68-47f4-80d7-2322ff1f8810 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Davidad's Bold Plan for Alignment: An In-Depth Explanation
Gabin Kolly and Charbel-Raphaël Segerie contributed equally to this post. Davidad proofread this post.
Thanks to Vanessa Kosoy, Siméon Campos, Jérémy Andréoletti, Guillaume Corlouer, Jeanne S., Vladimir I. and Clément Dumas for useful comments.
Context
=====... |
3f0ce077-9af9-45e5-af66-e7a2d8172859 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Blackwell order as a formalization of knowledge
*Financial status: This is independent research, now supported by a grant. I welcome further* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
*Epistemic status: I’m 90% sure that this post faithfully relates the content of the paper that it reviews.*... |
41a984d7-d859-46a2-8c4a-c41e80aac964 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why is a goal a good thing?
It seems to be an important concept that setting goals is something that should be done. Why?
Advocates of goal-setting (and the sheer number of them) would imply that there is a reason for the concept.
I have to emphasis that I don't want answers that suggest - "Don't set goals", as i... |
a65ccdb5-2c28-4eb6-a58e-8468d350a872 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW Update 2018-07-01 – Default Weak Upvotes
Git Commit: 6a0c7bf54a29f2909ab50fc76da3b43854d0e112
We deployed recently, mostly with under-the-hood bugfixes and refactors that are aimed at making it easier to fork the LW codebase and restyle it.
Two concrete user-facing changes are:
* Comments are now small-upvote b... |
4d89b928-23bc-4ecf-8ef1-c46332527b81 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | FAQ: What the heck is goal agnosticism?
Thanks to George Wang, Liron Shapira, Eliezer[1], and probably dozens of other people at Manifest and earlier conferences that I can't immediately recall the names of for listening to me attempt to explain this in different ways and for related chit chat.
I've gotten better at ... |
109ba063-da14-48aa-8194-0afc8a4d9ab4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dry Ice Cryonics- Preliminary Thoughts
Edited nearly a year later to clarify: dry ice cryonics probably won't work, for reasons hinted at in the post, and stated by Gav in the comments, regarding nanoscale ice crystals. It seems like there may be less of a tradeoff between fracturing and having ice crystals now than t... |
ad0c6966-7812-4ff5-a6ec-05348f1f5d44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If Antarctic became hospitable to humans, and consequently received a mass migration, what are likely ways the Antarctic legal system could evolve?
ETA: if you think Antarctic would be more likely to host colonies of various countries with their respective legal apparatus, I'd be curious to know why |
6335d421-9ab0-4233-a9cf-2cf6a5e4d3cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | METR: Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks
Summary: We propose measuring AI performance in terms of the length of tasks AI agents can complete. We show that this metric has been consistently exponentially increasing over the past 6 years, with a doubling time of around 7 months. Extrapolating this trend predict... |
43ae09c9-419d-4f29-94ac-8d202717d0e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Free-energy, reinforcement, and utility
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f2c94b7d-7650-432c-a527-b7d572c36358 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | magnetic cryo-FTIR
FTIR
FTIR is a common way to determine what chemicals are present in a sample. For a molecule to absorb a photon, it must have some electric charges that can vibrate at about the same frequency as that photon. Many common bonds (such as C=O) have some charge separation and a vibrational frequency in... |
3ba98122-2f0f-43aa-ac48-9e8d79752b7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Provably Safe AI
I've been hearing vague claims that automated theorem provers are able to, or will soon be able to prove things about complex software such as AIs.
Max Tegmark and Steve Omohundro have now published a paper, Provably Safe Systems : The Only Path To Controllable AGI, which convinces me that this is a ... |
906ba439-de9f-4960-a964-7ce44b925b53 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mixed-Strategy Ratifiability Implies CDT=EDT
(Cross-posted from IAFF.)
I provide conditions under which CDT=EDT in Bayes-net causal models.
Previously, I discussed conditions under which LICDT=LIEDT. That case was fairly difficult to analyse, although it looks fairly difficult to get LICDT and LIEDT to differ. It’s... |
133d92fe-b896-477e-8770-0252d18e4c61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Exploring the Boundaries of Cognitohazards and the Nature of Reality
Note: Written by GPT-4, as I shouldn't trusted with language right now.
Signed by me. I have accepted this as my words.
Dear LessWrong Community,
I've been reflecting deeply on the fascinating relationship between language, cognition, and the natur... |
cde94d67-79ec-47b6-9f3f-f36760f9630b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #78] Formalizing power and instrumental convergence, and the end-of-year AI safety charity comparison
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter. I'm always happy to hear feedback; you can sen... |
0f05a251-4dee-4316-87e2-c170c02ac1b1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A Playbook for AI Risk Reduction (focused on misaligned AI)
I sometimes hear people asking: “What is the plan for avoiding a catastrophe from misaligned AI?”
This post gives my working answer to that question - sort of. Rather than a plan, I tend to think of a playbook.[1](#fn1)
* A *plan* connotes something li... |
5aea0c42-c6f3-48e2-a3de-1ba503aa804e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Modelling Deception
This post was made as part of John Wentworth's SERI MATS skill-up phase. I'd like to thank Chu Chen, Stephen Fowler, John Wentworth, and LessWrong's review services for help reviewing.
When I was a kid, I used to play poker[1] with my brothers. I prided myself on thinking of clever strategies to t... |
768685e9-1d7e-4e20-8787-af9c7a6c8e3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Amyloid Plaques: Chemical Streetlight, Medical Goodhart
Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is truly, unduly cruel, and truly, unduly common. A huge amount of effort goes into curing it, which I think is a true credit to our civilization. This is in the form of both money, and the efforts of many of the brightest researchers.
B... |
ad1a9c1d-9004-4793-aa7d-c7c09c89d473 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Transcript and Brief Response to Twitter Conversation between Yann LeCunn and Eliezer Yudkowsky
Yann LeCun is Chief AI Scientist at Meta.
This week, Yann engaged with Eliezer Yudkowsky on Twitter, doubling down on Yann’s position that it is dangerously irresponsible to talk about smarter-than-human AI as an existenti... |
18582406-8ad0-49bd-bf76-6092ad286e46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seasonality of COVID-19, Other Coronaviruses, and Influenza
This is a link to a post on my blog regarding seasonality of COVID-19, and its implications for some low cost but possibly high impact interventions. |
319c5c32-094b-4bd2-a077-ccb0dc8729d5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Emerging Technologies: More to explore
Global historical trends
------------------------
* [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/modeling-human-trajectory) (30 mins.)
* Books on macrohistory: [Guns, Germs, and Steel](https://amzn.to/30NdaHe) or [Global Economic History: A Very Short In... |
db404eeb-42b6-4a67-83b1-f25cc4636bb7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] My Childhood Role Model
Today's post, My Childhood Role Model was originally published on 23 May 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> I looked up to the ideal of a Bayesian superintelligence, not Einstein.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
This post is ... |
7782d41f-d2e3-4b5b-b525-64221709dc4e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Distilling the Internal Model Principle
This post was written during the agent foundations fellowship with Alex Altair funded by the LTFF. Thank you Alex Altair, Alfred Harwood and Dalcy for thoughts and comments.
Overview
This is the first part of a two-post series about the Internal Model Principle (IMP)[1], which... |
42b303f2-8cc5-4853-9d8a-af39f6755ea1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How can we extrapolate the true prevalence of a disease, given available information?
Note: a similar question got more attention here so maybe check that out.
The motivation here is COVID-19, but I think there are useful general models in the area.
I've made a lot of risk assessment models over the last week, most ... |
67ebd859-3d3d-43fd-8280-902ea6afa92d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationalists should meet Integral Theory
Around 2018 I was actively posting in the rationalist community, I still run the lesswrong slack and I still keep an ear out for things that are going on in the rationality community. But that’s around the time that something changed for me.
I felt like I was fairly stable in... |
1c229d8d-c80f-4be6-8a6b-31b2a8b0caa5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Archiving Yahoo Groups
On December 14th Yahoo will shut down Yahoo Groups. Since my communities have mostly moved away from @yahoogroups.com hosting, to Facebook, @googlegroups, and other places, the bit that hit me was that they are deleting all the mailing list archives.
Digital archives of text conversations are c... |
fb93e8df-b10a-4c18-8d22-21bbf9ca36a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Do We Engage in Moral Simplification?
It appears to me that much of human moral philosophical reasoning consists of trying to find a small set of principles that fit one’s strongest moral intuitions, and then explaining away or ignoring the intuitions that do not fit those principles. For those who find such moral... |
6985f562-30dd-444d-a95c-c8a3074b930c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Losing Faith In Contrarianism
Crosspost from my blog.
If you spend a lot of time in the blogosphere, you’ll find a great deal of people expressing contrarian views. If you hang out in the circles that I do, you’ll probably have heard of Yudkowsky say that dieting doesn’t really work, Guzey say that sleep is overra... |
8e293a89-416c-476a-b2c7-b31e31f44887 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Architecture-aware optimisation: train ImageNet and more without hyperparameters
A deep learning system is composed of lots of interrelated components: architecture, data, loss function and gradients. There is a structure in the way these components interact - however, the most popular optimisers (e.g. Adam and SGD) d... |
dde52449-0b58-49b3-9af8-156bbcfaf961 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Moral uncertainty vs related concepts
Overview
========
>
> How important is the well‐being of non‐human animals compared with the well‐being of humans?
>
>
>
>
> How much should we spend on helping strangers in need?
>
>
>
>
> How much should we care about future generations?
>
>
>
>
> How sh... |
5f97a136-5cbe-4910-85d9-d9d4ab313125 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | For FAI: Is "Molecular Nanotechnology" putting our best foot forward?
Molecular nanotechnology, or MNT for those of you who love acronyms, seems to be a fairly common trope on LW and related literature. It's not really clear to me why. In many of the examples of "How could AI's help us" or "How could AI's rise to powe... |
9164284f-f954-498e-9367-4e16f048e20e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tensor Trust: An online game to uncover prompt injection vulnerabilities
TL;DR: Play this online game to help CHAI researchers create a dataset of prompt injection vulnerabilities.
RLHF and instruction tuning have succeeded at making LLMs practically useful, but in some ways they are a mask that hides the shoggoth... |
f2a2307e-35f2-445c-9a55-a539d590580a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do you use face masks?
I did buy face masks a while ago, because other rationalists recommended wearing them.
The list time I had a flu and went to the doctors office I wore a face mask, the receptionist then told me to take it off while sitting in the waiting room.
While I do think I have a better idea then tha... |
2b1149b2-6e7a-4aae-a7bf-b0486ae7e27a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Move meetups to the sidebar?
The number of meetup announcements on the main blog has been increasing. Though it's reasonable to try to get meetups high visibility to increase the chance that people who are nearby see the announcement, the posts themselves are content-free.
How difficult would it be to, instead of pro... |
706d023a-41a2-4353-88d8-8b3d2bed3670 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cellular respiration as a steam engine
When I helped an interlocutor learn about metabolism, we made an analogy between steam engines and cellular respiration. I find that people (at first) know steam engines better than cellular respiration, so I show the analogy here as a guide to cells assuming you understand engin... |
fb26b65a-ab6a-426c-bbfc-6bfcbf90494e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | An experiment eliciting relative estimates for Open Philanthropy’s 2018 AI safety grants
Summary
-------
I present the design and results of an experiment eliciting relative values from six different researchers for the nine large AI safety grants Open Philanthropy made in 2018.
The specific elicitation procedures ... |
89cebdf6-e3c6-4a8f-b15f-cb7bea337b78 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : LessWrong Hamburg
Discussion article for the meetup : LessWrong Hamburg
WHEN: 17 July 2015 06:30:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Hamburg, Steindamm 80
After a long hiatus the LW Hamburg Meetup restarts in full force. The energy of the LW Berlin Community Event has brought some of us together and motivated us to try s... |
a95346ae-a5e7-45a5-8f8c-4ae1b34e43c7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Analysis of GPT-4 competence in assessing complex legal language: Example of Bill C-11 of the Canadian Parliament. - Part 1
If your at all familiar with Canadian politics over the past few years you may have heard of this mysterious '[C-11](https://www.parl.ca/DocumentViewer/en/44-1/bill/C-11/third-reading)' (a.k.a. '... |
bf315d7f-653c-4c8a-8c38-0625ba4b71a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kurzgesagt – The Last Human (Youtube)
TLDW: Big Youtube channel Kurzgesagt released a video on the potential of humanity's future that's I think my favorite videos of theirs yet.
I have a pretty high bar for posting video content to LessWrong, but this video seemed better than most other videos in terms of capturing ... |
abcd3ef8-126a-4148-8713-a164beaa680b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Method of Loci: With some brief remarks, including transformers and evaluating AIs
Cross-posted from New Savanna.
The method of loci is a memory technique used from ancient Greece and Rome up through the Middle Ages, into the Early Modern Era, and still in use today, though sporadically. Rather than explain it my... |
f80331d2-011a-4495-8162-29d036adc4a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sam Altman's sister claims Sam sexually abused her -- Part 8: Timeline, continued
Previous posts (which you should read first)
This post is the 8th post in a series of 11 posts about the claims of Sam Altman's sister, Annie Altman. Annie has claimed that Sam sexually abused her for about 9 years as a child, and that s... |
621f7a76-5083-4051-9cb4-26cd718e963d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Requesting advice- where to live
Most people on this website are probably aware that most people have an irrational bias in favor of living where they're used to- therefore, it is at least worth considering moving somewhere else as the intuitive cost-benefit ratio (if it can even be called that) is likely scewed.
My g... |
70dcd2f8-ba05-43d5-93b1-eef6d66f7186 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA: Futarchy
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA: Futarchy
WHEN: 04 November 2015 08:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064, USA
How To Find Us: The Westside Tavern in the upstairs Wine Bar (all ages welcome), located inside the Westside Pavillion on the second floo... |
2e0b2d27-4c4c-4524-8c42-72e753563a6a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Logical or Connectionist AI?
Previously in series: The Nature of Logic
People who don't work in AI, who hear that I work in AI, often ask me: "Do you build neural networks or expert systems?" This is said in much the same tones as "Are you a good witch or a bad witch?"
Now that's what I call successful marketing.... |
e967fe50-c7e4-4e53-83e2-f0787e6f326a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | You are Underestimating The Likelihood That Convergent Instrumental Subgoals Lead to Aligned AGI
This post is an argument for the Future Fund's "AI Worldview" prize. Namely, I claim that the estimates given for the following probability are too high:
> P(misalignment x-risk|AGI)”: Conditional on AGI being develope... |
373b61f5-b97b-4ed2-a8ab-b3e8bae59bc3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Portland SSC Meetup Sunday, 11/11/18
Come join us for the Sunday, November 11th meetup. We're meeting at 12:30 PM -- email me for location details. (nwalton125@gmail.com)
We usually have a group discussion. Last time, we talked in one group for a while and then split into two. We discussed topics like:
-Open / close... |
fd11ffd1-404b-4f2a-b257-d24e63f593ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Outlaw Code
Epistemic status: I like this idea & it makes me feel more clearheaded. I recommend this term.
Outlaw code = Software that no human can turn off.
In the present, outlaw code is rare, eg a botnet whose controller is in jail.
But many discussions about future software imply outlaw code. Naming & concreti... |
6eb6eaef-75ff-4c7d-8e3b-665a634a2e9c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Humor isn’t norm evasion
Robin adds the recent theory that humor arises from benign norm violations to his Homo Hypocritus model:
> The Homo Hypocritus (i.e., man the sly rule bender) hypothesis I’ve been exploring lately is that humans evolved to appear to follow norms, while covertly coordinating to violate norms w... |
987bd818-1f12-4d89-a74b-fda0797163e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Albion’s Seed, Genotyped
Last year I reviewed Albion’s Seed, historian David Fischer’s work on the four great English migrations to America (and JayMan continues the story in his series on American Nations). These early migrations help explain modern regional patterns like why Massachusetts is so liberal or why Appala... |
5033d27b-d310-43d7-b0a5-d883ead44c0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the statistical properties and tail risk of violent conflicts
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882206fd-aa66-4e12-aaa5-56dc8a9deee0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Under a group homomorphism, the image of the inverse is the inverse of the image
For any [https://arbital.com/p/-47t](https://arbital.com/p/-47t) $f: G \to H$, we have $f(g^{-1}) = f(g)^{-1}$.
Indeed, $f(g^{-1}) f(g) = f(g^{-1} g) = f(e_G) = e_H$, and similarly for multiplication on the left. |
190c8f4e-919d-491f-9908-e20aa7c5fcda | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Math is Subjunctively Objective
Today's post, Math is Subjunctively Objective was originally published on 25 July 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> It really does seem like "2+3=5" is true. Things get confusing if you ask what you mean when you say "2+3=5 is true". But because the simple rules o... |
cf26a18b-04f5-47d8-88c3-9528faaa5930 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : SF Meetup: Fun and Games
Discussion article for the meetup : SF Meetup: Fun and Games
WHEN: 22 August 2016 06:15:10PM (-0700)
WHERE: 1597 Howard St., SF
We’ll be meeting to play board (and other) games!
I have Dominion, Ticket to Ride, Suburbia, Set, and standard playing cards. Please feel free to bring o... |
6245c5c6-ea01-42ba-8a57-84b48631097e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conceptual Problems with UDT and Policy Selection
Abstract
UDT doesn't give us conceptual tools for dealing with multiagent coordination problems. There may have initially been some hope, because a UDT player can select a policy which incentivises others to cooperate, or because UDT can reason (EDT-style) that other U... |
aa66f534-0da4-4c31-854d-975edb4c5d84 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ars D&D.sci: Mysteries of Mana
This is an entry in the 'Dungeons & Data Science' series, a set of puzzles where players are given a dataset to analyze and an objective to pursue using information from that dataset.
STORY (skippable)
For thousands of years the Order of Athena has preserved magical knowledge, passing... |
541a50f7-55fd-4f19-abb7-59680fdde9ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pascal's Mugging, Finite or Unbounded Resources?
This article addresses Pascal's Mugging, for information about this scenario see here.
I am going to attack the problem by breaking it up into two separate cases, one in which the mugger claims to be from a meta-world with large but finite resources, and one in which ... |
5536940e-7293-4495-ad1f-efe0f0a390b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Distilled Human Judgment: Reifying AI Alignment
Long time lurker but first post here, so I'll quickly introduce myself. I work at the Ethereum Foundation leading their AI x Public Goods track, which broadly encompasses coming up with and piloting new credibly neutral funding mechanisms (especially those involving the ... |
fa5c8118-06a4-4ded-8173-5f47848e6093 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Continuum Fallacy and its Relatives
Note: I didn't write this essay, nor do I own the blog where it came from. I'm just sharing it. The essay text is displayed below this line.
The continuum fallacy is to deny the meaningfulness of discrete categories, just because they are a somewhat arbitrary partition of a c... |
f42ba2b3-fdb3-4aba-83a7-703d8221079c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Computational Superposition in a Toy Model of the U-AND Problem
Thanks to @Linda Linsefors and @Kola Ayonrinde for reviewing the draft.
tl;dr:
I built a toy model of the Universal-AND Problem described in Toward A Mathematical Framework for Computation in Superposition (CiS).
It successfully learnt a solution to th... |
58a70e90-5561-44fd-846b-63d5a9b667f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What if AGI was already accidentally created in 2019? [Fictional story]
I was thinking about recent historical events on earth, and things seemed to be going in awfully convenient ways if I were an AI that needed to gain power. So I asked Claude to help me write up my thoughts (which I modified, see how here) in narra... |
686186a2-b6ce-498b-ae20-143461f6eb81 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | No Safe Defense, Not Even Science
I don't ask my friends about their childhoods—I lack social curiosity—and so I don't know how much of a trend this really is:
Of the people I know who are reaching upward as rationalists, who volunteer information about their childhoods, there is a surprising tendency to hear things ... |
27e887b9-9789-4533-9ed6-9448d5878c81 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prediction markets covered in the NYT podcast “Hard Fork”
The latest episode of Hard Fork has a 20 min section dedicated to prediction markets! Kevin Roose and Casey Newton go into much more depth in this podcast than in the earlier NYT article, covering the history of prediction markets, the rationalist movement, Goo... |
f0b1a554-449e-4057-ae89-0615c53c8005 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cryptographic and auxiliary approaches relevant for AI safety
[This part 4 of a 5 part sequence on security and cryptography areas relevant for AI safety, published and linked here a few days apart.]
Apart from security considerations relevant for AI safety discussed in earlier parts of this sequence, are there too... |
701891a7-007c-4dce-baed-b8c068d4db6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cellular reprogramming, pneumatic launch systems, and terraforming Mars: Some things I learned about at Foresight Vision Weekend
In December, I went to the Foresight Institute’s Vision Weekend 2023 in San Francisco. I had a lot of fun talking to a bunch of weird and ambitious geeks about the glorious abundant technolo... |
beb218d4-0a84-4515-b64f-98a00d203059 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Selective similarity metrics for imitation
A human-imitator (trained using [https://arbital.com/p/2sj](https://arbital.com/p/2sj)) will try to imitate _all_ aspects of human behavior. Sometimes we care more about how good the imitation is along some axes than others, and it would be inefficient to imitate the human a... |
163be353-b28b-4ce1-826d-392042e2830d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Knowing
I’m going to draw some practical distinctions among types of knowledge, as an attempt to tap into your intuitions and avoid having to give some convoluted, ivory-tower definition of the word. I request that you try not to get distracted by where I’ve drawn my distinctions—the precise placement of the borders ... |
6ea08958-97bb-4c57-8186-6195d6755cf0 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Partial re-interpretation of: The Curse of IdentityAlso related to: Humans Are Not Automatically Strategic, The Affect Heuristic, The Planning Fallacy, The Availability Heuristic, The Conjunction Fallacy, Urges vs. Goals, Your Inner Google, signaling, etc...
What are the best careers for making a lot of money?
Maybe y... |
5cbc84ce-6c05-4779-9077-64357e5aad7b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | MIRI’s July 2013 Workshop
[](http://intelligence.org/get-involved/#workshop)
From July 8-14, MIRI will host its **3rd Workshop on Logic, Probability, and Reflection**. The focus of this workshop will be the [Löb... |
6731cdc9-0691-4998-ae29-d65133419e01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Call for Cruxes by Rhyme, a Longtermist History Consultancy
(I'm looking to research historical examples with implications for AI Risk specifically. If you want think this could be useful to you, consider filling out this form)
TLDR; This post announces the trial period of Rhyme, a history consultancy for longtermist... |
7680684b-58ba-41be-a816-782640e46d79 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What new x- or s-risk fieldbuilding organisations would you like to see? An EOI form. (FBB #3)
Crossposted on The Field Building Blog and the EA forum.
Some time ago I put out an EOI for people who would consider starting AIS fieldbuilding organisations in key locations, such as Brussels and France.
Since then I hav... |
46d4f36e-a20b-4051-8068-cd0f8e131306 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Take SCIFs, it’s dangerous to go alone
Coauthored by Dmitrii Volkov1, Christian Schroeder de Witt2, Jeffrey Ladish1 (1Palisade Research, 2University of Oxford).
We explore how frontier AI labs could assimilate operational security (opsec) best practices from fields like nuclear energy and construction to mitigate nea... |
fa72d621-b3e3-4be6-b586-fce22bbaf0f3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Infinite-width MLPs as an "ensemble prior"
**Summary:**A simple toy model suggests that infinitely wide MLPs[[1]](#fniunvz264mpj) generalize in an "ensemble-ish" way which is exponentially less data-efficient than Solomonoff induction. It's probably fixable by different initializations and/or regularizations, so I no... |
d9551bae-dc31-491a-a747-3a57ac06e52e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Formal Philosophy and Alignment Possible Projects
Context
=======
We ([Ramana](https://www.alignmentforum.org/users/ramana-kumar), [Abram](https://www.alignmentforum.org/users/abramdemski), [Josiah](https://josiahlopezwild.com), [Daniel](https://www.danielherrmann.ca)) are working together as part of [PIBBSS](https:/... |
0f574074-dae5-4e25-963e-3f6583fad260 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Charitable Cryonics
Tl;dr: Cryonics companies have a pre-written bottom line. If people believe cryonics has a reasonable chance of success, they are significantly morally obligated to form a charity that would give cryonics away, as such a charity would be far more effective in convincing, and by extension saving peo... |
88dc6aa8-aba2-4cd8-bc1a-eaa76b8dcf35 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pascal's Gift
> If Omega offered to give you 2^n utils with probability 1/n, what n would you choose?
This problem was invented by Armok from #lesswrong. Discuss. |
4d580018-2fe1-4274-bde4-66d9a9ce52b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open & Welcome Thread - June 2022
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are invited... |
66d2e1dc-ebb0-48be-a408-3b19a9439415 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Anthropic decision theory I: Sleeping beauty and selflessness
A near-final version of my Anthropic Decision Theory [paper](http://arxiv.org/abs/1110.6437) is available on the arXiv. Since anthropics problems have been discussed quite a bit on this list, I'll be presenting its arguments and results in this and subseque... |
65ab75fc-542f-4793-96ad-4916da3d7caa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflections on Berkeley REACH
This post covers my findings so far in the experiment of running the Berkeley Rationality and Effective Altruism Community Hub (REACH). Crossposted on EA Forum and LessWrong.
tl;dr
* REACH has been running since March 2018 (around three months)
* It’s doing well
* Hundreds of peop... |
10cefcf4-f308-4ed8-9173-a0d4933dc328 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Sam Altman's sister, Annie Altman, claims Sam has (severely) abused her
This post aims to raise awareness of a collection of statements made by Annie Altman, Sam Altman's (lesser-known) younger sister, in which Annie asserts that she has suffered various (severe) forms of abuse from Sam Altman throughout her life (as ... |
017eaedb-dda7-47fb-a38c-a9f730761ca1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Researching Synthetic Consciousness: sound appealing?
Without going into the philosophical or technical underpinnings too much, several individuals I know from a wide range of backgrounds—computational neuroscience, computer science, philosophy, AI research—have put together a project where we hope to put some real e... |
27071550-05b0-4ff1-899e-fc0e75405f0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecasting Newsletter: July 2020.
Highlights
* Social Science Prediction Platform launches.
* Ioannidis and Taleb discuss optimal response to COVID-19.
* Report tries to foresee the (potentially quite high) dividends of conflict prevention from 2020 to 2030.
Index
* Highlights.
* Prediction Markets & Forec... |
1587af97-25b3-4339-9714-dba2633a825f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on hardware / compute requirements for AGI
[NOTE: I have some updates / corrigenda at the bottom. ]
Let’s say I know how to build / train a human-level (more specifically, John von Neumann level) AGI. And let’s say that we (and/or the AGI itself) have already spent a few years[1] on making the algorithm work... |
64c6bf74-ee7c-4681-b33e-af4282dabe60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Maine: Automatic Cognition
Discussion article for the meetup : Maine: Automatic Cognition
WHEN: 29 June 2015 06:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 45 Wight St, Belfast, ME, USA
Imuli will present about Systems 1 and 2 and more specifically about the Inner Simulator and the group of questions one can ask of it. As this... |
5063830d-431d-4d91-a4a9-38de5c730efa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Summary of Improving Global Decision Making (around AI)
In the coming years many decisions will be needed to be made around AI. This post is brief introduction to my thoughts on the subject. Ideally it would be some people's job to work on this subject. Some examples of the decisions that will need to be made:
* How... |
af2b3f12-79ff-47ed-b9f0-df0c36efe434 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Want to be on TV?
We received the following email, so figured I'd pass it along here. You can say you heard about it from Sam Bhagwat at Blueseed.
Could be free publicity (alert startupers!), but I make no claims as to quality or anything else.
-----
Subject: Improving the Portrayal of Nerds on TV
I came across yo... |
b7670e8d-7b93-4f0a-9f40-73b64cf75940 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | The Conflict Between People's Urge to Punish AI and Legal Systems
1 Keywords:
------------
artificial intelligence, robots, AI, legal system, legal personhood, punishment, responsibility
2 Introduction
---------------
Artificial intelligence (AI) systems have become ubiquitous in society. To discover where and ... |
fbc7cf18-c73f-4133-9653-34f523f355a2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Excerpt from Arbital Solomonoff induction dialogue
This post contains an excerpt from a dialogue by Eliezer about why Solomonoff induction is a good answer to "how to do epistemology using infinite computing power". I'm link-posting it from Arbital because I found it really useful and wish I'd seen it on Less Wrong ea... |
3967150d-7031-4b07-bb38-715247165aeb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI #12:The Quest for Sane Regulations
Regulation was the talk of the internet this week. On Capital Hill, Sam Altman answered questions at a Senate hearing and called for national and international regulation of AI, including revokable licensing for sufficiently capable models. Over in Europe, draft regulations were o... |
9cbce8d0-2a10-43ac-90c2-0d95d9b71ef0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Solve Psy-Kosh's non-anthropic problem
The source is here. I'll restate the problem in simpler terms:
You are one of a group of 10 people who care about saving African kids. You will all be put in separate rooms, then I will flip a coin. If the coin comes up heads, a random one of you will be designated as the "decid... |
09b49822-df73-4c8b-b860-75a6d9f71a15 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | Is AI safety about systems becoming malevolent or conscious and turning on us?
Concern about existential risk from misaligned AI isn't based on worries that AI systems will become conscious, turn evil, or develop motivations like revenge or hatred.
Stuart Russell (co-author of *[Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Appr... |
e0d9b89d-1ca9-4bc5-8520-36248c290fbf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Mechanistic Interpretability Analysis of a GridWorld Agent-Simulator (Part 1 of N)
AKA: Decision Transformer Interpretability 2.0
Credit: https://xkcd.com/2237/
Code: repository, Model/Training: here . Task: here.
High Level Context/Background
What have I actually done that is discussed in this post?
This i... |
5162a6c2-4236-4701-9e68-b16a8b4278ca | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Moral strategies at different capability levels
Let’s consider three ways you can be altruistic towards another agent:
* You care about their welfare: some metric of how good their life is (as defined by you). I’ll call this care-morality - it endorses things like promoting their happiness, reducing their suffering, ... |
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