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95bc5736-1d59-47fa-a1e7-352ccb39aa7d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | US scientists find potentially habitable planet near Earth
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1741330 |
1950a9b8-49ce-481c-baee-cd60b273da5c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Chaining Retroactive Funders to Borrow Against Unlikely Utopias
Summary
-------
There is no qualitative distinction between investors and retroactive funders on an impact market. Rather they will *de facto* fall along a spectrum of how altruistic they are. That is because investors will (1) expect investments into we... |
fd94a930-6d9b-4151-8e36-22f99b59407c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | High-stakes alignment via adversarial training [Redwood Research report]
(Update: We think the tone of this post was overly positive considering our somewhat weak results. You can read our latest post with more takeaways and followup results here.)
This post motivates and summarizes this paper from Redwood Research, ... |
28823560-23a3-49c5-bea5-0d3df51c66de | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Towards A Virtual Assistant That Can Be Taught New Tasks In Any Domain By Its End-Users
1 Introduction
---------------
Popular virtual assistants (VAs), such as
Siri111[www.apple.com/ios/siri/](http://www.apple.com/ios/siri/),
Cortana222[windows.microsoft.com/en-us/windows-10/](http://windows.microsoft.com/en-us/wi... |
307a4380-20d6-4e21-979b-868efcda4fcb | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "(Original post on the polyphasic sleep experiment here.)Welp, this got a little messy. The main culprit was Burning Man, though there were some other complications with data collection as well. Here are the basics of what went down. Fourteen people participated in the main experiment. Most of them were from Leverage. ... |
32d30a6a-184a-482d-95ff-bdb09a126210 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cooking Air Quality
Our stove doesn't have a hood that vents to the outside, so when we're cooking something smoky we put a box fan in the window blowing out. I happened to have left my air quality meter running, and got a neat picture of how well this is working when cooking something very smoky:
Here's the flo... |
23c56532-2e8a-4f55-820f-c2eab2aafe57 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Open Phil releases RFPs on LLM Benchmarks and Forecasting
As linked at the top of [Ajeya's "do our RFPs accelerate LLM capabilities" post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7qGxm2mgafEbtYHBf/survey-on-the-acceleration-risks-of-our-new-rfps-to-study), Open Philanthropy (OP) recently released two requests for proposals (R... |
79ed4618-dd9a-4517-a4da-c152c0bdb162 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Text Posts from the Kids Group: 2018
Another round of liberating kid posts from Facebook. For reference, in 2018 Lily turned 4 and Anna turned 3.
(Some of these were from me; some were from Julia. Ones saying "me" could mean either of us. Ones from others are labeled.)
2018-01-12
Since Lily started listening to "H... |
ee5798d1-4283-431f-bf0e-f55c990fc850 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Parable Of The Fallen Pendulum - Part 2
Previously: Some physics 101 students calculate that a certain pendulum will have a period of approximately 3.6 seconds. Instead, when they run the experiment, the stand holding the pendulum tips over and the whole thing falls on the floor.
The students, being diligent Baye... |
4c8d5e68-c119-4e25-900a-c3ff6695a3e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Crossing the History-Lessons Threshold
(1)
Around 2009, I embarked on being a serious amateur historian. I wouldn't have called it that at the time, but since then, I've basically nonstop studied various histories.
The payoffs of history come slow at first, and then fast. History is often written as a series of isol... |
10974d4b-a45f-4a62-b253-a42063a24fc8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [April Fools] User GPT2 is Banned
For the past day or so, user GPT2 has been our most prolific commenter, replying to (almost) every LessWrong comment without any outside assistance. Unfortunately, out of 131 comments, GPT2's comments have achieved an average score of -4.4, and have not improved since it received a mo... |
f81b1c74-b75c-4825-89fb-246ef947e38e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Iron deficiencies are very bad and you should treat them
In brief
Recently I became interested in what kind of costs were inflicted by iron deficiency, so I looked up studies until I got tired. This was not an exhaustive search, but the results are so striking that even with wide error bars I found them compelling. S... |
0cd69cb1-8ddb-4f69-b005-d3131b92ac94 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AI Alignment Research Overview (by Jacob Steinhardt)
*I'm really excited to see someone outline all the work they think needs solving in AI alignment - to describe what the problem looks like, what a solution looks like, and what work has been done so far. Especially from Jacob, who is a coauthor of the Concrete Probl... |
fd9fb150-1b34-4750-8d48-b6ab9af1333e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Lessons from Convergent Evolution for AI Alignment
Prelude: sharks, aliens, and AI
===============================
If you go back far enough, the ancestors of sharks and dolphins look really different:
![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/sam4ehxHgnJEGCKed/byj52j6... |
b8e50ff1-7450-44b8-b0c5-c597e2ab2fd4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Murphy’s Quest Ch 4: Noticing Confusion
Two muscle heads stand in the doorway, clubs out. Let’s call them Crabbe and Goyle. Were those really their names? Might as well have been.
“Hand ‘em over,” Crabbe smacks his Wood Club against his other hand like a police baton.
Now it came to me: these two had been missing fr... |
b4f4e758-c017-4a08-8226-635b72bcdc34 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Help Update TryContra
For the past decade I've been maintaining a directory of contra dances at trycontra.com. Mostly it just sits there being a place you can enter your zip code and see nearby dances, and when it gets out of date people email me.
With the pandemic, however, there were several big changes:
* Lots... |
698fb31b-71da-42df-8e74-11a6b7ab2448 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Using books to prime behavior
My purpose for reading has shifted from "I want to learn this" to "I want to use this to prime my behavior".
After years of consuming psychology, business management and generally "how-to" books(as opposed to "what" books), I've learnt that I will only have gotten something tangible out ... |
9ca58a7d-d263-4b2f-b6b5-91c3ae3fa921 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Economic Definition of Intelligence?
Followup to: Efficient Cross-Domain Optimization
Shane Legg once produced a catalogue of 71 definitions of intelligence. Looking it over, you'll find that the 18 definitions in dictionaries and the 35 definitions of psychologists are mere black boxes containing human parts.
How... |
ed68bcd3-1763-4da9-a68d-b28e5fbd079b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Average probabilities, not log odds
Let's say you want to assign a probability to some proposition X. Maybe you think about what odds you'd accept bets at, and decide you'd bet on X at 1:99 odds against X, and you'd bet against X at 1:9 odds against X. This implies you think the probability of X is somewhere between 1... |
2727f35a-a6ce-46c8-8d80-8e73ff6ff1f2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Problematic Problems for TDT
A key goal of Less Wrong's "advanced" [decision theories](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Decision_theory "decision theories") (like [TDT](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Timeless_decision_theory "TDT"), [UDT](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Updateless_decision_theory "UDT") and [ADT](http://... |
e19fb8f7-85c5-4570-91b8-2101985edd9b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tips, tricks, lessons and thoughts on hosting hackathons
Epistemic status: Based on one relatively new AIS group's experience, so take everything with a grain of salt!
(Crossposted on the EA Forum.)
We hosted a couple of hackathons with Alignment Jams so far and found it a great way to engage people who have previou... |
cc92fdac-c177-45d9-8d3f-42b1eec94a5d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Tech talk: Privacy in AI safety
everyone my name is mark world I'm and
with me is Christian and we're going to
talk to you today about previously AI
safety it's going to be a Tech Talk I'm
going to keep it heavy on intuition
examples as well brief agenda so
introduction to speakers we've kind of
covered that we're goi... |
e1ec3295-2306-4ac6-8fdb-3b77a1bb9e47 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Applying Bayesian Analysis to History (post idea)
I am an aspiring historian and I'm very interested in ways to apply Bayesian reasoning to history. When I say "history" I mean the study of history -- as a historian, allowing my map of what has happened in the past to match the territory, and being able to represent m... |
85261b57-5830-4014-bac3-286e9e306fe7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Upcoming unambiguously good tech possibilities? (Like eg indoor plumbing)
I recently asked about the glorious AI future but I meant to ask something more actionable. Near-term (say, next 5 years) stuff that ambitious people can aim for.
Lots of recent tech is a mixed bag in terms of societal outcomes and whatnot. I h... |
b385de61-6594-4935-8a39-e829299d786e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | One Way to Think About ML Transparency
What makes a neural network interpretable?
One response is that a neural network is interpretable if it is human simulatable. That is, it is interpretable if and only if a human could step through the procedure that the neural network went through when given an input, and arrive... |
27ab6d1f-d0d5-40dd-92cb-28d1935c5b5c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Confessions of a Slacker
Crossposting the entire thing from Putanumonit in honor of the Slack sequence.
----------------------------------------
Go read Slack, it’s short and important.
If you’re not a slacker, that post might change your life and explain why you feel like you have no control over your own life des... |
fcea5336-cb3c-4b3d-93b1-b43f894738df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Societal Growth Requires Rehabilitation
Disclaimer: My intent is not to criticize growth mindset as initially intended, but to criticize the version of straw growth mindset that has become a rationalist meme, particularly by pointing out its relation to some of the problems we have on the community level.
"Growth min... |
543ce0f2-dc36-4595-9774-32127ff08482 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | DeepMind x UCL | Deep Learning Lectures | 11/12 | Modern Latent Variable Models
hello and welcome to
series on topics in
deploring my name is Andrea Nick and I'm
a research scientist at deep mind I work
on generative modeling variational
inference and representation learning
this lecture will cover modal latent
variab... |
1c16b510-1481-4e57-ad46-8e432a2b83a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Be a new homunculus
Here's a mental technique that I find useful for addressing many dour feelings, guilt among them:
When you're feeling guilty, it is sometimes helpful to close your eyes for a moment, re-open them, and pretend that you're a new homunculus.
A "homunculus" is a tiny representation of a human, and on... |
527d096d-ff41-4a01-b78f-996e2980fb5b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Explicit Expectations when Teaching
Epistemic Status: Casual thoughts on small ways to improve teaching flows.
In the lectures for my current classes, things don't always make sense. Sometimes the not making sense comes from a feeling of incompleteness. The definition seems incomplete. I notice that I don't have enou... |
c5d5df3a-4fde-4891-a5be-f4ce66f33429 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Demanding and Designing Aligned Cognitive Architectures
This post is to announce my new paper [Demanding and Designing Aligned
Cognitive Architectures](https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.10190), which I
recently presented in the [PERLS](https://perls-workshop.github.io/)
workshop (Political Economy of Reinforcement Learning)]... |
ed277994-ea37-4f77-8f2c-2e4cacb9e3a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can this model grade a test without knowing the answers?
In the 2012 paper "How To Grade a Test Without Knowing the Answers — A Bayesian Graphical Model for Adaptive Crowdsourcing and Aptitude Testing" (PDF), Bachrach et al describe a mathematical model for starting with
* a set of questions without answers
* a set... |
0025ee49-9a9f-4a6e-83e6-10b392e9e32b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (12th Dec - 18th Dec 22')
Supported by Rethink Priorities
This is part of a weekly series summarizing the top posts on the EA and LW forums - you can see the full collection here. The first post includes some details on purpose and methodology. Feedback, thoughts, and corrections are wel... |
914213c5-1f61-495b-ae68-23a70d1729a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Review: LessWrong Best of 2018 – Epistemology
Cross-posted from Putanumonit. Some of this post is relevant mostly to readers of my blog who aren't LessWrongers, but you may still be interested in my general thoughts about the essays, the book as an artifact, and the state of the community.
---------------------------... |
7edb221a-5834-4627-ac7f-3876cbe60f11 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Reading Group: Part P: Reductionism 101
This is part of a semi-monthly reading group on Eliezer Yudkowsky's ebook, Rationality: From AI to Zombies. For more information about the group, see the announcement post.
----------------------------------------
Welcome to the Rationality reading group. This fort... |
ab397cab-7823-4e35-ba0a-3ce3d2e373b2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducing the Longevity Research Institute
I’ve just founded a nonprofit, the Longevity Research Institute — you can check it out here.
The basic premise is: we know there are more than 50 compounds that have been reported to extend healthy lifespan in mammals, but most of these have never been tested independently... |
d4932252-8226-40b4-9b8b-8f50bd56a207 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dreaming of Political Bayescraft
|
a979d0ac-627c-4827-a81a-9a8955a6308d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | NVIDIA and Microsoft releases 530B parameter transformer model, Megatron-Turing NLG
> In addition to reporting aggregate metrics on benchmark tasks, we also qualitatively analyzed model outputs and have intriguing findings (Figure 4). We observed that the model can infer basic mathematical operations from context (sam... |
d14f9a9b-3b97-406a-ba28-c0f3a29f4b61 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Logarithms invert exponentials
The function [$\log_b](https://arbital.com/p/3nd) inverts the function $b^{(\cdot)}.$ In other words, $\log_b(n) = x$ implies that $b^x = n,$ so $\log_b(b^x)=x$ and $b^{\log_b(n)}=n.$ (For example, $\log_2(2^3) = 3$ and $2^{\log_2(8)} = 8.$) Thus, logarithms give us tools for analyzing a... |
da2f0a0e-b6ad-48be-947c-74a4ccc9d3ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some Arguments Against Strong Scaling
There are many people who believe that we will be able to get to AGI by basically just scaling up the techniques used in recent large language models, combined with some relatively minor additions and/or architectural changes. As a result, there are people in the AI safety communi... |
a4677c78-403c-4de7-8ce1-73f3a63bc424 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The path of the rationalist
This is the last of four short essays that say explicitly some things that I would tell an intrigued proto-rationalist before pointing them towards Rationality: AI to Zombies (and, by extension, most of LessWrong). For most people here, these essays will be very old news, as they talk about... |
0d547405-8fff-4dfe-b4a7-fc9e059e9951 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Freaky Fairness
Consider this game:
where the last payoff pair is very close to (3,2). I choose a row and you choose a column simultaneously, then I receive the first payoff in a pair and you receive the second. The game has no Nash equilibria in pure strategies, but that's beside the point right now because we dro... |
c6ba6169-7138-4fe4-8b7f-3249e3377388 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Inconvenient Truth
What are your politics?
What frameworks have you acquired for structuring your interaction with the world?
What facts support them?
What possibilities would undermine them? What significant counterexamples could exist, and which of them could prove to be fact?
--------------------------------... |
4fc2f59e-91d0-40d8-8630-06ba758f0663 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Language for Goal Misgeneralization: Some Formalisms from my MSc Thesis
The following is an edited excerpt from the Preliminaries and Background sections of my now completed MSc thesis in Artificial Intelligence from the University of Amsterdam.
In the thesis, we set out to tackle the issue of Goal Misgeneralization ... |
5ba4470f-34d0-4303-9482-ff498631ef26 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | NIPS 2015
There is a fairly large contingent of safety research oriented people at NIPS this year. I'm unfortunately not among them, but if you're there and interested in connecting with others on AI safety topics or other LW issues - general rationality, EA, etc. I welcome you to make this thread a Schelling point to... |
0d8b7a33-8d23-4aad-aab6-7a0331703f4f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Case for Cooperation: Dependence in the Prisoner's Dilemma
> "The man who is cheerful and merry has always a good reason for being so,—the fact, namely, that he is so." The Wisdom of Life, Schopenhauer (1851)
TL;DR
Descriptions of the Prisoner's Dilemma typically suggest that the optimal policy for each prisoner i... |
188e60c8-842c-46b0-bee4-1640e5f17cee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Impact stories for model internals: an exercise for interpretability researchers
Inspired by Neel's longlist; thanks to @Nicholas Goldowsky-Dill and @Sam Marks for feedback and discussion, and thanks to AWAIR attendees for participating in the associated activity.
As part of the Alignment Workshop for AI Researchers ... |
acd38961-f127-4208-a71d-5562ba9e7df6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can Bayes theorem represent infinite confusion?
Edit: the title was misleading, i didn't ask about a rational agent, but about what comes out of certain inputs in Bayes theorem, so now it's been changed to reflect that.
Eliezer and others talked about how a Bayesian with a 100% prior cannot change their confidence le... |
7c4a92a0-09bc-453e-833f-821dd120a260 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | NYT: Google will “recalibrate” the risk of releasing AI due to competition with OpenAI
Cross-posted from the EA Forum
The New York Times: Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet and Google, is trying to speed up the release of AI technology by taking on more risk.
> Mr. Pichai has tried to accelerate product approval reviews... |
e9bf38b6-c046-42df-92a5-809bbdeb3db1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monthly Roundup #16: March 2024
AI developments have picked up the pace. That does not mean that everything else stopped to get out of the way. The world continues.
Do I have the power?
> Emmett Shear speaking truth: Wielding power is of course potentially dangerous and it should be done with due care, but there is ... |
fe6d7186-813a-4e07-a5d7-4a5719c98275 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The Prospect of an AI Winter
Summary
-------
* William Eden [forecasts](https://twitter.com/WilliamAEden/status/1630690003830599680) an AI winter. He argues that AI systems (1) are too unreliable and too inscrutable, (2) won't get that much better (mostly due to hardware limitations) and/or (3) won't be that profita... |
bb7667d0-4f01-436f-aa51-6e51eeff9dd2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Research Discussed by Mainstream Media
|
4431e4a0-59d7-4751-9a74-ada3b94fc5de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Montreal LessWrong - The Future is Awesome
Discussion article for the meetup : Montreal LessWrong - The Future is Awesome
WHEN: 28 January 2013 06:30:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 655 Avenue du Président Kennedy, Montréal, QC
Bringing in articles and discussing the progress of technology that remains hidden from our... |
e4588faf-4bb3-456f-8ab7-c0a66c8f4ca7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Multiple conditions must be met to gain causal effect
Is there a name for and research about the heuristic / fallacy that there is exactly one cause for things? How come we do not look for the conditions that cause but for a cause?
I see this almost as often as the correlation = causation fallacy. When it comes in th... |
dc289094-79d4-4666-b1dd-fcce4d0413cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | $295 bounty for new Singularity Institute logo design (crowd-sourced competition)
If you have graphic design experience, check out the on-going logo design competition at 99designs for the Singularity Institute. There are still 6 days left to enter and be eligible to win the $295 prize if your design is selected. Tell... |
bb2e4be0-5e26-4fa3-94ad-8aa800dd879f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Call for volunteers: clean up the LW issue tracker
I'm looking for a volunteer (or volunteers).
We've let the Lesswrong issue tracker get out of hand - there are 99 open issues on it, and I think that many of them are resolved by changes since they were opened, are less than awesome ideas, or, for the remainder, are ... |
400dfa6b-caa8-48e9-a060-e40892b3e163 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Wrong Book Club and Study Group
Do you want to become stronger in the way of Bayes? This post is intended for people whose understanding of Bayesian probability theory is currently somewhat tentative (between levels 0 and 1 to use a previous post's terms), and who are interested in developing deeper knowledge thr... |
20e6c970-0392-485e-bb95-96da19968df0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Shanghai Less Wrong Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Shanghai Less Wrong Meetup
WHEN: 15 April 2012 10:36:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: Shanghai
WHEN: 15 April 2012 01:00:00PM
WHERE: This is at a private residence, please private message 'Teddy' if you're joining. (This is China, it's got to be this way) ... |
1b9f63e7-66ea-416b-b622-3b9ae28530f1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 18: Dominance Hierarchies
Any sufficiently advanced J. K. Rowling is indistinguishable from magic.
----------------------------------------
"That does sound like the sort of thing I would do, doesn't it?"
----------------------------------------
It was breakfast time on Friday morning. Harry took another h... |
9aff0fe2-7262-48ed-821b-19a74bc35a4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Links and short notes, 2025-01-26: Atlas Shrugged and the irreplaceable founder, pumping stations and civic pride, and thoughts on the eve of AGI
Much of this content originated on social media. To follow news and announcements in a more timely fashion, follow me on Twitter, Threads, Bluesky, or Farcaster.
Contents
... |
99ee5155-9fa2-4f19-862d-6de840fb9a22 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Design 3: Intentionality
This is part 24 of 30 in the Hammertime Sequence. Click here for the intro.
Intentions are momentary, but problems last forever.
A human being’s attention flits around like the Roman God Mercury, root of the word “mercurial” – subject to sudden or unpredictable changes of mood or mind. The b... |
3c01eb57-0dd0-4a1b-98b0-e5a31216dd59 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Miracles and why not to believe them
Wonders and signs
For a while I've wanted to explain to people why the testimony of the apostles isn't sufficient for me to believe them. I intuitively find that the gospels aren't enough for be to believe them. Even if they're better preserved than any other ancient text etc. I us... |
291eff1a-bad9-4d8a-a522-9c7e6c1abf4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Russian parliamentarian: let's ban personal computers and the Internet
Anatoly Kubanov, a senior member of the parliament of a Russian oblast (state), and a member of one of the four major political parties allowed in Russia, proposed to ban personal computers and the public access to the Internet.
Below is a partial... |
e21d6a2d-db7c-4d0e-b5e1-f51132871c66 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Related to: Parapsychology: the control group for science, Dealing with the high quantity of scientific error in medicine
Some of you may remember past Less Wrong discussion of the Daryl Bem study, which claimed to show precognition, and was published with much controversy in a top psychology journal, JPSP. The editor... |
2b5cd54f-f6d3-44f8-b93d-54f4fbbca1ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link] Pei Wang: Motivation Management in AGI Systems
Related post: Muehlhauser-Wang Dialogue.
Motivation Management in AGI Systems, a paper to be published at AGI-12.
> Abstract. AGI systems should be able to manage its motivations or goals that are persistent, spontaneous, mutually restricting, and changing over t... |
ab3b432f-0675-4584-9bef-67776c76acf7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Clippy, the friendly paperclipper
Edit: it's critical that this agent isn't directly a maximizer. Just like all current RL agents. See "[Contra Strong Coherence"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AdGo5BRCzzsdDGM6H/contra-strong-coherence). The question is whether it becomes a maximizer once it gets the ability to edit ... |
b45bf00b-e137-4177-b783-3ffb87100427 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What plausible beliefs do you think could likely get someone diagnosed with a mental illness by a psychiatrist?
None |
ecafb242-9939-485c-af99-04708df1d662 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Empirical claims, preference claims, and attitude claims
What do the following statements have in common?
* "Atlas Shrugged is the best book ever written."
* "You break it, you buy it."
* "Earth is the most interesting planet in the solar system."
My answer: None of them are falsifiable claims about the nature of... |
dccac70c-04a5-4436-992d-c2cee276fac9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Me & My Clone
An advanced alien species clones me on the atomic level, lines me up exactly across myself, in a perfect mirrored room:
Diagram of the room, as seen from above.
I stare at myself for a second. Then, as a soft "hi" escapes my mouth, I notice that my clone does exactly the same. Every motion, everything, ... |
6c8de054-8534-4d6f-87e2-ffd7eab47ee7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Alignment Problem: Machine Learning and Human Values
The Alignment Problem: Machine Learning and Human Values, by Brian Christian, was just released. This is an extended summary + opinion, a version without the quotes from the book will go out in the next Alignment Newsletter.
Summary:
This book starts off with ... |
e7b3a0d7-55b8-4efa-9c31-f1459a527197 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - Urge Propagation
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - Urge Propagation
WHEN: 05 October 2014 03:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: Humanist House, 10 Shepherd St Chippendale
We'll be examining how to connect your desire for goals or outcomes to specific emotional urge... |
ee51c323-78b2-4883-84b2-384619b91805 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Munich Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Munich Meetup
WHEN: 06 April 2014 01:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Theresienstraße 41, 80333 München
Since our last meetup's format seemed to work pretty well, April's meetup is going to be not too different. We have one or two short talks planned, one of them wil... |
d31cdda3-9668-4b3f-854d-818e26b67e33 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Truth: It's Not That Great
> Rationality is pretty great. Just not quite as great as everyone here seems to think it is.
>
> -Yvain, "Extreme Rationality: It's Not That Great"
> The folks most vocal about loving "truth" are usually selling something. For preachers, demagogues, and salesmen of all sorts, the wilder t... |
85f251d5-2946-4707-8688-eb0f68a9e6f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ACX Meetups Everywhere List
Here's the Astral Codex Ten worldwide meetups list, crossposted at LW's request in case people here are interested in attending. Some cities have an ACX but not an LW meetup group, or vice versa; others combine their groups. You can find the list below, in the following order:
1. Africa &... |
f17f8950-a9b3-40f4-9021-d2744fa41824 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Early 2022 Paper Round-up
My students and collaborators have been doing some particularly awesome work over the past several months, and to highlight that I wanted to summarize their papers here, and explain why I’m excited about them. There’s six papers in three categories.
**Human-Aligned AI**
* [The Effects of ... |
11178fef-dcde-4723-a6df-eb1db56bc417 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Confusion about Newcomb is confusion about counterfactuals
(This is the first, and most newcomer-accessible, post in a planned [sequence](/lw/16f/decision_theory_an_outline_of_some_upcoming_posts/).)
Newcomb's Problem:
*Joe walks out onto the square. As he walks, a majestic being flies by Joe's head with a box la... |
f27d37b7-f177-4ac8-8673-b3a325f6b297 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Four Components of Audacity
For a long time I've wondered how to measure nonconformity. To measure nonconformity I needed to define "nonconformity". But no matter how I defined "nonconformity" my definitions felt so subjective they could apply to anybody, from a certain point of view. If everybody is nonconformist th... |
fcb00214-da6e-4e7e-bd93-9fab89754eab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What If Galaxies Are Alive and Atoms Have Minds? A Thought Experiment on Life Across Scales
Introduction:
Epistemic status: Speculative and exploratory. This is a thought experiment inspired by complexity theory, emergence, and scale-invariant patterns. I don’t assert these ideas as literal truths, but as lenses to t... |
128cc6ed-b842-4a17-9850-baccbc426c87 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Supervised Program for Alignment Research (SPAR) at UC Berkeley: Spring 2023 summary
In Spring 2023, the [Berkeley AI Safety Initiative for Students](https://berkeleyaisafety.com/) (BASIS) organized an alignment research program for students, drawing inspiration from similar programs by [Stanford AI Alignment](https:/... |
00ced2c7-8087-48be-9ac1-1ddd187aa43e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What do you make of AGI:unaligned::spaceships:not enough food?
In Buck's transcript for his talk on Cruxes for working on AI safety there's an example of a bad argument for why we should be worried about people building spaceships too small.
> Imagine if I said to you: “One day humans are going to try and take humans... |
22ac5c62-1e51-41ca-b3bf-407c752558b6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Gillian Hadfield "Incomplete Contracts and AI Alignment" (Disc: Paul Milgrom)
[Music]
okay all right well I'm really glad to
be at this conference at Toronto I'm
really happy to be joining the set of
colleagues and for any graduate students
in the room there's lots and lots to be
done from a theoretical point of view
... |
89b0db4c-cd6d-404f-8ef8-14b810965991 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Magic Articles I’ve Written
Update 4/23/2017: I now write for Channel-Fireball. This is a link to my author page.
Posts in the Amonkhet and Kaladesh eras through 4/23/2017:
Decks:
Mardu Planeswalkers
Red Drake
Empty Hand of the Gods
Set Preview:
Amonkhet’s Overlooked Cyclers
Analysis:
Mardu vs. Copycat
Advoc... |
1aeeccee-7521-486d-abeb-cac69ddfdadc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sequences/Eliezer essays beyond those in AI to Zombies?
After years of lurking in this community I finally broke down and Read the Sequences™. Specifically, I read the 2015 edition of Rationality: From AI to Zombies, cover to cover.
Over the course of reading it, I became aware that it wasn't comprehensive. There wou... |
3fc100aa-d25b-4f94-8564-41b451d6a913 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Scaling Up Knowledge Graph Creation to Large and Heterogeneous Data Sources
1 Introduction
---------------
Knowledge graphs (KGs) are data structures able to converge data and metadata collected from various data sources [[34](#bib.bib34)]. Data sources can be heterogeneous and comprise structured, semi-structured,... |
26b86941-1cb7-481e-a02d-440aa522c6a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Crash scenario 1: Rapidly mobilise for a 2025 AI crash
Large movement organising takes time. It takes listening deeply to many communities' concerns, finding consensus around a campaign, ramping up training of organisers, etc.
But what if the AI crash is about to happen? What if US tariffs[1] triggered a recession th... |
fc1a19c1-33ac-4121-b3e7-b333ad4df98d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Planning with Goal-Conditioned Policies
1 Introduction
---------------
Reinforcement learning can acquire complex skills by learning through direct interaction with the environment, sidestepping the need for accurate modeling and manual engineering.
However, complex and temporally extended sequential decision makin... |
9c268954-5507-4870-84ac-14ca99dea61c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Durham NC/Triangle Area: Cognitive Biases, Continued
Discussion article for the meetup : Durham NC/Triangle Area: Cognitive Biases, Continued
WHEN: 12 September 2013 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 420 West Geer St., Durham NC 27701
Follow up discussion to the prior meetup's cognitive biases survey! We will focu... |
177c15fb-865a-468f-bc1b-081b1b6c5cec | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Pointing to a Flower
Imagine I have a highly detailed low-level simulation (e.g. molecular dynamics) of a garden. The initial conditions include a flower, and I would like to write some code to “point” to that particular flower. At any given time, I should be able to use this code to do things like:
* compute a bound... |
521412a2-c193-4a7d-ae20-053a4660fa7e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Giving What We Can at LessWrong Tel Aviv
Discussion article for the meetup : Giving What We Can at LessWrong Tel Aviv
WHEN: 05 July 2016 05:06:58PM (+0300)
WHERE: Cluster - Disruptive Technologies hub, Yigal Alon 118 Tel Aviv
This Tueday, LessWrong Tel Aviv is proud to host a talk by Erwan Atcheson from Gi... |
b2683318-feca-43ab-b134-623a9820e525 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Using game theory to elect a centrist in the 2024 US Presidential Election
Crossposted from the EA Forum
TL;DR
A nonpartisan group like No Labels could privately offer US congresspeople this deal: If enough congresspeople pledge to the deal, they all agree to switch their Presidential endorsement to a compromise can... |
17ecb6fa-8b31-4314-9d75-81fae76130c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | March 22nd & 23rd: Coronavirus Link Updates
Update: We just launched a new version of our link database. We now have over 350 links categorized in total, and the database is now properly integrated into LessWrong and even works on mobile!
You can find the full database here: https://www.lesswrong.com/coronavirus-lin... |
d90281b6-b7ac-4d32-82ba-88bc8f4f59ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Tel Aviv, Israel
Discussion article for the meetup : Tel Aviv, Israel
WHEN: 21 April 2012 07:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Cafe Aroma, London Ministore, Sderot Sha'ul HaMelech, Tel Aviv, Israel
Let's have a LW meetup in Tel Aviv. There are currently no ongoing meetings here - if this one goes well, we can repeat i... |
0c6abd24-93a1-413f-9f12-f481020606a0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Normativity
Now that I've written [Learning Normativity](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2JGu9yxiJkoGdQR4s/learning-normativity-a-research-agenda), I have some more clarity around the concept of "normativity" I was trying to get at, and want to write about it more directly. Whereas that post was more oriented toward t... |
d7e6cd5c-4114-4168-a67b-b64a0441cf21 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why does METR score o3 as effective for such a long time duration despite overall poor scores?
Epistemic status: Question, probably missing something.
Context
See the preliminary evaluation of o3 and o4-mini here: https://metr.github.io/autonomy-evals-guide/openai-o3-report/#methodology-overview
This follows up imp... |
51fa1393-acee-46eb-8455-039656e01733 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Insulin signaling and autism
I ran across this article that I think is interesting. It suggests that type 2 diabetes and the increase in autism may have a common cause.
http://www.frontiersin.org/Cellular_Endocrinology/10.3389/fendo.2011.00054/full |
400432a3-39ab-4669-a035-34a3ba1f1386 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes from the book ‘First Three Minutes’ by Steven Weinberg
This is a cross-post from my blog.
It’s mind-blowing that we humans are able to talk about what happened in the first 3 minutes of The Big Bang. This book was written in 1976 which was quite a while back but it’s interesting to note that while there have be... |
f667bd7b-1ced-45bd-943b-354bb3dd1832 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | One path to coherence: conditionalization
*[Thanks to guy-whose-name-I-forgot working on paths to coherence for the conversation at Newspeak House after EAG London that prompted this thought, and Jozdien and eschatropic for some related chit-chat.]*
Many agents start with some level of incoherence in their preferenc... |
3fcd92df-b87f-42e7-9da7-d40f7dae32bc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | John Horgan interviews Eliezer Yudkowsky
 *Scientific American* writer John Horgan [recently interviewed](http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/ai-visionary-eliezer-yudkowsky-on-the-singularity-bayesian-bra... |
1bb6fbd5-7582-4cd7-a4d1-729056aa2ec2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup schedule
Our SSC meetup is every Sunday, 12:30pm, at Panera Bread for lunch/coffee. 10606 Shawnee Mission Pkwy
We also have a monthly game at Pawn and Pint (a board game pub, anyone younger than 21 must be accompanied by a legal guardian. Cover fee is waived if you say you're with the Kansas City Rationalists)... |
a25ee571-d430-4342-9388-d8d95b1997a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What technical-ish books do you recommend that are readable on Kindle?
I am looking for nonfiction non-historical books that aren’t too dumbed-down/light (essentially, a book that needs careful reading, not something skimmable), but still readable on an e-reader such as Kindle (so equations should be very scarce, and ... |
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