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4e5fc600-52e8-416d-8261-c06e81aee385 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC fun and games meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC fun and games meetup
WHEN: 16 February 2014 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: national portrait gallaey
We'll be meeting to hang out and play games.
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC fun and games meetup |
d2602fd8-c825-4b4d-a6fd-2328428661ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Risk US Presidential Candidate
With AI risk getting significant media attention lately (FLI open letter, Eliezer's letter), I think it's plausible that the Overton window has expanded enough where a presidential candidate talking about it won't get immediately laughed off stage.
In addition, there seems to be incr... |
02bd3c3e-6753-446e-a6b6-d27bfc666cea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Best Of Rationality Blogs RSS Feed
[Note: There's already a gather-it-all feed by deluks917, and the lw summary recently had a "most recommended" section, so it covers some of what I'm doing here.]
This is an RSS feed that aggregates the most valuable posts (according to me) from around 40 or 50 rationality blogs. It... |
c2025a8a-f2ff-4585-b07e-4d5b2033fe90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The topic is not the content
Disclaimer: I’ve never held a job for more than a year [1] or been paid more than $15 an hour. Take everything I say with a grain of salt.
Many of my peers seem to make career plans like by asking things like
1. What am I interested in, or what do I like doing? and
2. How can I do some... |
8bdb5839-1fb4-43a8-9ae7-bceff32a4946 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Toronto: Meet Malo from MIRI
Discussion article for the meetup : Toronto: Meet Malo from MIRI
WHEN: 12 June 2014 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 591 Yonge St, Toronto
I don't usually do this, but since this meetup is a special occasion, I'm buying everyone dinner! (Up to 10 people, first come first served. Beyon... |
9c7d240b-e9c9-42b4-8942-a87c626b858e | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | ""What do you mean 'bureaucratically impossible'?" said Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres.
"It just is," said Mad-Eye Moody.
"Nothing 'just is'," Harry said, "Everything happens for a material reason. What precisely is preventing you from acquiring the permits?"
"I suspect an unfriendly nation-state is employing bureaucr... |
72be7a3a-3f77-4318-81ae-c6974313aa1b | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post183
This is a linkpost accompanying a new paper by UK AISI and Redwood Research. Please see the full paper for more details. An illustration of the control evaluation that provides the core evidence used in our control safety case sketch. During the control evaluation, a red team constructs adversarial substit... |
c64aac71-a6ea-487f-bb4f-f9999e42a574 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A review of Steven Pinker's new book on rationality
Steven Pinker's new book on rationality came out today. I figured someone on LessWrong would write a review for it, so I might as well be the one to do it.
Unlike Pinker's prior books, such as The Blank Slate and The Better Angels of Our Nature, this book lacks a st... |
989b290e-bb2e-4d83-9961-58f90622e2b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Truth + Reason = The True Religion?
William Wollaston’s The Religion of Nature Delineated (1722) helped to launch “The Age of Reason.” It anticipated Kant’s Categorical Imperative, described and defended what we would now call the libertarian non-aggression principle, and provided the authors of the Declaration of Ind... |
9a96ed2c-9412-4de0-a1d5-30da796d347d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Becoming Black Boxish
Through my arduous and repetitive drilling of various practice tasks - mental rotation, typing, beat saber, osu - I've noticed, as my skills improve, that I process less and less detail regarding their execution. There is a clear process to it; at first, an insight into some difficulty or complex... |
6f5600a8-ee37-4373-af7d-8ad1bbcf2f7a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #91: Deep Thinking
Did DeepSeek effectively release an o1-preview clone within nine weeks?
The benchmarks largely say yes. Certainly it is an actual attempt at a similar style of product, and is if anything more capable of solving AIME questions, and the way it shows its Chain of Thought is super cool. Beyond that... |
e2d12682-0213-4c1b-baf5-74552d04791a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci April 2021 Evaluation and Ruleset
This is a followup to the D&D.Sci post I made last week; if you haven’t already read it, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
Here is the web interactive I built to let you evaluate your solution; below is an explanation of the rules used to generate the dataset. Yo... |
6d2b3fe8-b61e-4e78-b6b1-89a521a5b078 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ICONN 2012 nanotechnology conference in Perth
I won a prize and get to travel to Perth, Australia to attend the 2012 ICONN nanotechnology conference.
Is anyone else from LessWrong going to be there?
I don't actually know much about nanotechnology. Does anyone have any particular recommendations for some a good intro... |
cc7805fd-f30f-46a8-b76c-bb531087979f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, Jul. 13 - Jul. 19, 2015
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately... |
1538ad39-f20c-486b-8f1f-ee12b8b00693 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Value Uncertainty and the Singleton Scenario
In January of last year, Nick Bostrom wrote a post on Overcoming Bias about his and Toby Ord’s proposed method of handling moral uncertainty. To abstract away a bit from their specific proposal, the general approach was to convert a problem involving moral uncertainty into ... |
dbd4a008-c419-49a0-9c65-473e8fb92990 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | World-Model Interpretability Is All We Need
Summary, by sections:
1. Perfect world-model interpretability seems both sufficient for robust alignment (via a decent variety of approaches) and realistically attainable (compared to "perfect interpretability" in general, i. e. insight into AIs' heuristics, goals, and tho... |
04cdf3fd-050c-4246-baa3-e3dc81775404 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gandalf or Saruman? A Soldier in Scout's Clothing
Sometimes, Scout Mindset can feel a lot like Soldier Mindset, and vice versa.[1]
When you've considered an issue with some care, formed an opinion, and somebody responds with raised voice about how awful that opinion is, it's hard not to get defensive or take it perso... |
83222efb-edaf-4013-beba-9046749dc4f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Repeated thought
Eliezer Yudkowsky of OB suggests thinking and doing entirely new things for a day:
> Don’t read any book you’ve read before. Don’t read any author you’ve read before. Don’t visit any website you’ve visited before. Don’t play any game you’ve played before. Don’t listen to familiar music that you... |
d01754e3-7e31-4bbc-ab9e-cc695b7660b7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Reviews of "Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?"
(Edited 10/14/2022 to include Lifland review. Edited 7/10/23 to include Levinstein review.)
Open Philanthropy solicited reviews of my draft report [“Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1smaI1lagHHcrhoi6ohdq3TYIZv0eNWWZMPEy... |
144ec61f-c583-4675-8f33-17bfa221d9f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes 20
"For every stock you buy, there is someone selling you that stock. What is it that you know that they don't? What is it that they know, that you don't? Who has the edge? If it's not you, chances are you are going to lose money on the deal."
-- Mark Cuban
"If you have two choices, cho... |
e628b164-13a4-418e-8311-4e8fc2281070 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When Did EA Start?
How old is the effective altruism movement? It depends when you count from, and it's hard to pick any specific day or event because it coalesced out of a lot of different strands. Plus, since this is a movement and not just an idea, it matters when it started gathering people which is naturally very... |
eab53130-9092-407b-9700-35ff53cc67a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Replacing guilt
In my experience, many people are motivated primarily by either guilt, shame, or some combination of the two. Some are people who binge-watch television, feel deeply guilty about it, and convert that guilt into a burning need to Actually Do Something on the following day. Others are people who feel gui... |
475d663e-69a4-49a4-8c49-30dac66b6ba8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Taxonomy of Bias: The Cognitive Miser
This is the second part in a mini-sequence presenting content from Keith E. Stanovich's excellent book What Intelligence Tests Miss: The psychology of rational thought. It will culminate in a review of the book itself.
Noting that there are many different kinds of bias, Keith S... |
9d63805d-b169-4c71-aa2a-a9967c86afa7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes 7
"People don't buy three-eighths-inch drill bits. People buy three-eighths-inch holes."
-- Michael Porter
"I feel more like I do now than I did a while ago."
-- Arifel
"Know thyself, because in the end there's no one else."
-- Living Colour, Solace of You
"Student motivat... |
bc071c0e-2f6d-439f-97f6-b6f1c33426e9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Subagents of Cartesian Frames
Here, we introduce and discuss the concept of a subagent in the [Cartesian Frames](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames) paradigm.
Note that in this post, as in much of the sequence, we are generally working up to [biextensional equivalence](... |
8a471cab-3ecd-45a7-991c-7e31d064f425 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup Tip: Nametags
Summary
Nametags are nice to have at meetups. When I was planning my second big meetup, I typed “nametag” into Amazon and got these. They’ve worked great but whatever your local stationary store or online shopping service suggests is probably just as good. The summary of this post is that if you r... |
43e77fd4-f7cf-46c2-82d4-79c41452a5c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Jobs and internships available at the Centre for Effective Altruism: new 'EA outreach' roles added
I recently posted on LessWrong main about the jobs and internships currently available at the Centre for Effective Altruism. (As I mentioned, effective altruism in general and CEA in particular have been discussed many t... |
1adac3f5-211e-440d-b055-4c2eaf61308c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Edinburgh Grand Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Edinburgh Grand Meetup
WHEN: 25 June 2011 02:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: 67 Delhi Cafe, Nicolson Street, Edinburgh
Our once in a month big-meetup! See you there! Map: http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?ie=UTF8&t=h&cid=1874860554950886070
Discussion article... |
a0444387-2d32-4407-9bdb-4d387b19f03e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ann Altman has filed a lawsuit in US federal court alleging that she was sexually abused by Sam Altman
On January 6, 2025, Ann Altman filed a lawsuit in the Eastern District of Missouri alleging that Sam Altman carried out multiple acts of sexual abuse against her over "a period of approximately eight or nine years" s... |
ef18be36-2a62-4fb5-9c2e-c67f3c75d495 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Multitasking: Efficient Optimal Planning for Bandit Superprocesses
Multitasking: Efficient Optimal Planning for Bandit Superprocesses
Dylan Hadfield-Menell and Stuart Russell
Abstract
A bandit superprocess is a decision problem
composed from multiple independent Markov
decision processes (MDPs), coupled only by the
const... |
d7826ec5-31d0-4c1f-b7c6-3ba4ee15a8c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup - Book Discussion: "Thinking, Fast and Slow"
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup - Book Discussion: "Thinking, Fast and Slow"
WHEN: 20 June 2012 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064
When: 7:00pm - 9:00pm Wednesday, June 20th.
Where: The Westsi... |
a2a307a0-1aca-44ef-85f2-401eb7afab9a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shallow investigation into cause prioritization
Cross-posted at 80,000 Hours Blog
I recently conducted a ‘shallow investigation*’ into cause prioritization, with help from Nick Beckstead. You can read it and various related interview notes here. It covers the importance of cause prioritization; who is doing it, fundi... |
3c3f9463-dc9c-4a21-bd64-58db6a9408f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Computer Science and Programming: Links and Resources
Updated Version @ LW Wiki: wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Programming_resources
Contents
* How Computers Work
* An Overview of Computer Programming
* Computer Science and Computation
* Supplementary Resources: Mathematics and Algorithms
* Practice
* Python
* Hask... |
26ed3bf8-73b9-442d-95c6-4691088fe0b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI as a Civilizational Risk Part 4/6: Bioweapons and Philosophy of Modification
Bio-Chemical Weapons made by AI
One of the core risks involved with both narrow AIs and general AIs is the creation of biological and chemical weapons. While the probability of creating stronger and stronger behavior modification in AIs ... |
4efc92be-5510-4d48-9d96-464af24c0628 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Money creation and debt
I'm confused about fiat money creation and debt in the US. My mental model is that the Fed lends money into existence (either to banks or to the treasury), which creates a loan (that eventually has to be paid back with interest, though I think they can choose not to collect on loans to the trea... |
3c75812e-083e-42b1-9cdc-f5638c1edc05 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Anthropic Effects in Estimating Evolution Difficulty
*Thanks to Linchuan Zhang, Mauricio Baker, Jack Ryan and Carl Shulman for helpful comments and suggestions. Remaining mistakes are my own.*
Epistemic status: “There is something fascinating about [anthropics]. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of s... |
c5ddcb01-6f2f-41dc-88db-c07e11908bf8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking geeks interested in bioinformatics
I work at a small but feisty research team whose focus is biomedical informatics, i.e. mining biomedical data. Especially anonymized hospital records pooled over multiple healthcare networks. My personal interest is ultimately life-extension, and my colleagues are warming up ... |
f69f20d2-c27a-41b7-94a0-97c34db76538 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Catchy Fallacy Name Fallacy (and Supporting Disagreement)
Related: The Pascal's Wager Fallacy Fallacy, The Fallacy Fallacy
Inspired by:
> We need a catchy name for the fallacy of being over-eager to accuse people of fallacies that you have catchy names for.
When you read an argument you don't like, but don't kno... |
1e4aa37d-3935-4a87-9ca7-6bf59e65eba4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lotteries & MWI
I haven't been able to find the source of the idea, but I've recently been reminded of:
> Lotteries are a way to funnel some money from many of you to a few of you.
This is, of course, based on the Multiple Worlds Interpretation: if the lottery has one-in-a-million odds, then for every million timeli... |
d02982b9-450f-4b10-8bf4-5a9e8ae0a45e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Where do selfish values come from?
Human values seem to be at least partly selfish. While it would probably be a bad idea to build AIs that are selfish, ideas from AI design can perhaps shed some light on the nature of selfishness, which we need to understand if we are to understand human values. (How does selfishness... |
33e1ccd5-3a81-454f-b8e4-473b8740bc0c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducing the AI Alignment Forum (FAQ)
After a few months of open beta, the AI Alignment Forum is ready to launch. It is a new website built by the team behind LessWrong 2.0, to help create a new hub for technical AI Alignment research and discussion. This is an in-progress FAQ about the new Forum.
What are the fi... |
adaf72a7-c47a-4544-a47d-66b53001e196 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Houston Meetup - Saturday, October 1
Discussion article for the meetup : Houston Meetup - Saturday, October 1
WHEN: 01 October 2011 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 2010 Commerce St, Houston, Tx. 77002
There will be another meeting at the hackerspace this Saturday. I'll be giving a presentation on a theoretical n... |
3980d2c6-a73a-4dce-890a-0025d072a61f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the typical course of COVID-19? What are the variants?
I've heard a lot about the death rate, hospitalization rate, doubling time, etc, but I don't feel like I know *what happens* when you catch SARS-CoV-2. My questions include, but are not limited to:
* How long from infection to symptoms?
* How do symptom... |
0eafd5f2-4497-46c1-862c-6a320f599755 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "It is said that parents do all the things they tell their children not to do, which is how they know not to do them. Long ago, in the unthinkably distant past, I was a devoted Traditional Rationalist, conceiving myself skilled according to that kind, yet I knew not the Way of Bayes. When the young Eliezer was confront... |
b6b84c1f-1c04-4040-b6e7-e458f70210de | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | January 2018 Newsletter
Our 2017 fundraiser was a [huge success](https://intelligence.org/2018/01/10/fundraising-success/), with 341 donors contributing a total of $2.5 million!
Some of the largest donations came from Ethereum inventor Vitalik Buterin, bitcoin investors Christian Calderon and Marius van Voorden, poker... |
c3f28033-cea5-482f-9d93-002a2616819e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Don't accelerate problems you're trying to solve
If one believes that unaligned AGI is a significant problem (>10% chance of leading to catastrophe), speeding up public progress towards AGI is obviously bad.
Though it is obviously bad, there may be circumstances which require it. However, accelerating AGI should requ... |
08e10216-9a8f-4097-ad14-868f884e24c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Where Philosophy Meets Science
Today's post, Where Philosophy Meets Science was originally published on 12 April 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> In retrospect, supposing that quantum physics had anything to do with consciousness was a big mistake. Could philosophers have told the physicists... |
7cbda07b-5c16-4897-baf2-4c669d99c1b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Relationship Orientations
Jacob Falkovich has written a good post on Entertaining vs Building orientations, which made me realize I should probably cross-post my own articles on these sorts of things.
(Note: these articles refer largely to normative modern western culture. When I say “most people” or “most relationsh... |
f7d4e3e8-4eaf-4235-80d1-ec5375613e49 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Graham's number
Graham's number is a... rather large number. Letting $f(x) = 3\uparrow^n 3$ (in [https://arbital.com/p/+knuth_up_arrow_notation](https://arbital.com/p/+knuth_up_arrow_notation)) and $f^n(x) = \underbrace{f(f(f(\cdots f(f(x)) \cdots ))}_{n\text{ applications of }f}$, Graham's number is defined to be $f^... |
dc500884-7cd5-406d-97b2-b02dc90aab80 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sex, Lies, and Dexamethasone
CW: Here are some terms that appear in this post and give you some flavor of what it's about: clitoroplasty, childhood sexual abuse, autogynephilia, transvestite, institutional review board.
This is a review of Alice Dreger's Galileo's Middle Finger, a memoir about science and activism: w... |
c4114263-9e6f-4649-8654-08225682c301 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | This might be the last AI Safety Camp
Update Dec 4: Funds still needed for next month's stipends, plus salaries to run the 11th edition. Also, Zvi listed AISC at the top of his recommendations for talent funnel orgs.
----------------------------------------
We are organising the 9th edition without funds. We have ... |
a626597d-a824-4388-bf59-e4fbaf2563cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decisions are not about changing the world, they are about learning what world you live in
Cross-posted from my blog.
Epistemic status: Probably discussed to death in multiple places, but people still make this mistake all the time. I am not well versed in UDT, but it seems along the same lines. Or maybe I am reinven... |
ee12855e-c2d2-4637-9856-2f60d2d8c68e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cambridge Prediction Game
In order to improve our prediction and calibration skills, the Cambridge, MA rationalist community has been community has been running a prediction game (and keeping score) at a succession of rationalist group houses since 2013.
Below are the rules:
General
The game consists of a series of... |
43adb87c-394e-475e-88e0-62c90e44578d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflection in Probabilistic Logic
Paul Christiano has devised a new fundamental approach to the "Löb Problem" wherein Löb's Theorem seems to pose an obstacle to AIs building successor AIs, or adopting successor versions of their own code, that trust the same amount of mathematics as the original. (I am currently writ... |
7ea8e553-a083-4099-99d2-ad6f57649fa8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Go flash blinking lights at printed text right now
1. Install a strobe light app on your phone (I used "strobe light tachometer" on ios.)
2. Get some printed text like a nutrition label or a paper book
3. Try to read the text with the light blinking at 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 13 hz
4. Report results. Was re... |
681740a3-f98b-4a60-b16a-0558649e9d07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | new study finds performance enhancing drugs for chess
|
b223f803-9e75-4350-ae4c-efad8ce38ec3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | WorldviewNaturalism.com: A "landing page" for scientific naturalism
I've just launched WorldviewNaturalism.com, which is intended as a simple "landing page" to be used for introducing your friends to scientific naturalism. Many of the recommended readings linked there are written by LWers. Enjoy.
(This is a very old ... |
6eb1becf-fd1b-4b9a-858b-df87e2d37d91 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Antimemes
Antimemes are self-keeping secrets. You can only perceive an antimeme if you already know it's there. Antimemes don't need a conspiracy to stay hidden because you can't comprehend an antimeme just by being told it exists. You can shout them to the heavens and nobody will listen. I'll try to explain with a fi... |
6d009e0a-ab9c-41eb-803f-9a4fbda60aac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What would you do with an Evil AI?
One plot-thread in my pet SF setting, 'New Attica', has ended up with Our Heroes in possession of the data, software, and suchlike which comprise a non-sapient, but conversation-capable, AI. There are bunches of those floating around the solar system, programmed for various tasks; wh... |
012345a1-4364-4e60-b7ac-d3ca75af8257 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Interview with 84py7
Interview with 84py7, on 3/18/22
================================
\*\*0:00:00.0 Vael:\*\* Here we are. Perfect. So my first question is, can you tell me about what area of AI you work on in a few sentences?
\*\*0:00:09.0 Interviewee:\*\* Yeah. I\'m transferring my research from essentially pure ... |
e1df2db7-ae06-4488-ad7f-b404fe56c354 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are quantum indeterminacy and normal uncertainty meaningfully distinct?
Let's say I've got an electron, either spin-up or spin-down. Let's make it easy and say its state is just |↑⟩+|↓⟩. I do an observation and then my Everett branch gets split in two: there's a version of me with exactly half the measure/amplitude/re... |
174b0090-a61e-41fc-9ed1-8a7ca9cb8a83 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are "the really good ideas" that Peter Thiel says are too dangerous to mention?
TYLER COWEN: Peter, tell me something that’s true that everyone agrees with you on.
PETER THIEL: Well there are lots of things that are true that everyone agrees with me on. I think for example even this idea that the university s... |
8ea35e98-b713-471c-8d43-96e74711c79b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Neural Cleanse: Identifying and Mitigating Backdoor Attacks in Neural Networks
Neural Cleanse: Identifying and Mitigating
Backdoor Attacks in Neural Networks
Bolun Wang∗†, Yuanshun Yao†, Shawn Shan†, Huiying Li†, Bimal Viswanath‡, Haitao Zheng†, Ben Y . Zhao†
∗UC Santa Barbara,†University of Chicago,‡Virginia Tech
∗bo... |
2d5d46fa-7ef5-444c-97f7-88a34bbf75a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Above-Average AI Scientists
Followup to: The Level Above Mine, Competent Elites
(Those who didn't like the last two posts should definitely skip this one.)
I recall one fellow, who seemed like a nice person, and who was quite eager to get started on Friendly AI work, to whom I had trouble explaining that he didn't ... |
043c8b6d-b2a0-456c-a735-5ad577bf6277 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Review of studies says you can decrease motivated cognition through self-affirmation
I read this article today and thought LW might find it interesting. The key finding is that in a number of different experiments, simple "self-affirmations" (such as writing about relationships with your friends or something else that... |
76156ed1-3dc0-4345-a443-d989df3bc474 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against Sam Harris's personal claim of attentional agency
TL;DR: Sam Harris has an obviously terrible information diet, and it is correct to criticize him for this in the context of his meditation teachings. He should treat his engagement with news headlines and twitter as unfortunate addictions, not good intellectual... |
58170af6-0452-4052-8f69-8b302afd6b46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How dangerous is Long COVID for kids?
All adults in my family are already vaccinated. But I also have two kids, age 6 and 3, who are not. The older one needs to wait a few months until the child vaccine is approved. The younger one will probably have to wait more than a year, because as far as I know the child COVID v... |
9fda8504-0934-4ca8-beaf-fda997226fc0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #101]: Why we should rigorously measure and forecast AI progress
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the... |
e2f06e40-0b0c-447a-bf7b-dfaa346be9ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne, practical rationality
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne, practical rationality
WHEN: 04 May 2012 06:30:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 197 Little Lonsdale St, Melbourne VIC 3000
Practical rationality, as distinct from the social and rationality outreach meetups. Look for a social meetup on the 3... |
78657e58-18e6-42de-979a-9370b02a172d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Constructing Lower Probabilities
Constructin g Lower Probabilities 515
Constructing Lower Probabilities
Carl Wagner
Mathematics Department
University of Tennessee
Knoxville, TN 37996-1300
Abstract
An elaboration of Dempster's method of con
structing belief functions suggests a broadly
applicable strategy for ... |
69ff9659-d5ce-4876-b6bd-236016ae774e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why did no LessWrong discourse on gain of function research develop in 2013/2014?
While I wasn't at 80% of a lab leak when Eliezer asseted it a month ago, I'm now at 90%. It will take a while till it filters through society but I feel like we can already look at what we ourselves got wrong.
In 2014, in the LessWron... |
fda0f85c-ed3d-4613-ac83-e5ce8be579c4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AlphaGo Zero and the Foom Debate
AlphaGo Zero uses 4 TPUs, is built entirely out of neural nets with no handcrafted features, doesn't pretrain against expert games or anything else human, reaches a superhuman level after 3 days of self-play, and is the strongest version of AlphaGo yet.
The architecture has been simpl... |
835fb76d-1eed-4cc5-b67c-443cea79bb55 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Our values are underdefined, changeable, and manipulable
Crossposted at Intelligent Agent Forum.
When asked whether "communist" journalists could report freely from the USA, only 36% of 1950 Americans agreed. A follow up question about Amerian journalists reporting freely from the USSR got 66% agreement. When the ord... |
2f05e8bb-446b-41bc-912a-7a399cd84a1a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [Crosspost] Organizing a debate with experts and MPs to raise AI xrisk awareness: a possible blueprint
*Thanks to* [*@Leon Lang*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/leon-lang?mention=user) *from University of Amsterdam for proposing this post and reviewing the draft. Any views expressed in this post are not necessarily h... |
f7887b69-18e0-467f-a3cb-fb5e2587b1b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | It's okay to be (at least a little) irrational
Caused by: Purchase Fuzzies and Utilons Separately
As most readers will know by now, if you're donating to a charity, it doesn't make sense to spread your donations across several charities (assuming you're primarily trying to maximize the amount of good done). You'll wa... |
f686cc04-7f53-4a1a-8f2a-df0dab9aa8e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can each event in the world be attributed conditions under which it occurs?
Can each event in the world be
* attributed conditions under which it occurs (actually under coditions there's possibility of occuring)
* and
* attributed this possibility/probability that this event will happen under those conditions?
... |
21d064f5-46d2-4f74-bbfc-01dee1eb288a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | NIST AI Risk Management Framework request for information (RFI)
(Cross-post from the EA Forum)
The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) previously put out a request for information (RFI) to help shape the AI Risk Management Framework that it is working on. NIST is an important organization in esta... |
fd1152e8-3a5e-4719-8aab-426b2318fc7e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Artificial General Horsiness
A lot of attention has been paid to the question of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Will artificial intelligence ever reach the level at which it can accomplish every intellectual task a human can do, and if so, how soon will that happen?
I think that this is the wrong question.
C... |
9e72d1b0-33b6-49e4-92dd-1adbabf78b80 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forum Proposal: Karma Transfers
On LessWrong, we can weak- and strong-upvote posts, which adds to the other user's karma without impacting our own. As we gain karma, we are able to award more karma. I have nearly 10,000 LessWrong Karma, and my strong upvote awards 8 karma at no cost to me.
Many users offer monetary b... |
68a5c6b1-0164-47ef-abcd-34a63d6c26ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Remap your caps lock key
When was the last time you (intentionally) used your caps lock key?
No, seriously.
Here is a typical US-layout qwerty (mac) keyboard. Notice:
1. Caps lock is conveniently located only one key away from A, which is where your left pinky should rest on the home row by default.
2. Caps l... |
54b1d0ee-9537-4265-a296-978c7044221b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Model-free decisions
Much concern about AI comes down to the scariness of goal-oriented behavior. A common response to such concerns is "why would we give an AI goals anyway?" I think there are good reasons to expect goal-oriented behavior, and I've been on that side of a lot of arguments. But I don't think the issue ... |
c6b8196f-8ac8-4795-b7a6-7984aefc3976 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Which LessWrong content would you like recorded into audio/podcast form?
For the last few months, LessWrong has been working with Solenoid_Entity to record each curated post into audio form. Recordings to date can be found here and on all major Podcast apps when you search "LessWrong".
More recently, we added some UI... |
188185d1-1173-4902-a839-4bbbde497784 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mini PAPR Review
A standard respirator, like a disposable N95 or an elastomeric P100, uses the power of the wearer's lungs to move air through a filter. An unpowered device has a lot of advantages in simplicity and reliability, but it can also be tiring, limits filtering capacity to what the wearer can tolerate, and r... |
6b750d34-9d39-4c96-bb82-8e15555595cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Truth Tables
Summary: There's a short program that can run all possible programs, OMG
Alternative Summary: Just about any universe that can exist must contain ours, OMG.
I was thinking about diagonalization arguments. Does this make any sense? Can anyone debug it for me?
Self Evident Truths
The universe is compu... |
3c193eed-834d-4133-945a-e6bc779ddbbd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Durham/RTLW HPMoR discussion, ch. 56-60
Discussion article for the meetup : Durham/RTLW HPMoR discussion, ch. 56-60
WHEN: 20 April 2013 12:30:30PM (-0400)
WHERE: 726 Rigsbee Avenue, Durham NC 27701
Meet at Fullsteam about 12:30 for discussion of HPMoR chapters 56-60!
Feel free to bring food and or coffee ... |
e5c88f3b-05ac-4002-b2f2-18035124c197 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Not Subagents?
Alternative title for economists: Complete Markets Have Complete Preferences
> The justification for modeling real-world systems as “agents” - i.e. choosing actions to maximize some utility function - usually rests on various coherence theorems. They say things like “either the system’s behavior ma... |
8f423a8f-5b8f-4028-a14c-71d1815eab29 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Corrigibility could make things worse
Summary: A Corrigibility method that works for a Pivotal Act AI (PAAI) but fails for a CEV style AI could make things worse. Any implemented Corrigibility method will necessarily be built on top of a set of unexamined implicit assumptions. One of those assumptions could be true fo... |
b408157b-1aea-454e-83df-e7ade430fbe1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AMC's animated series "Pantheon" is relevant to our interests
Sorry for the vague title. I'm avoiding spoilers for those who care a lot about that sort of thing.
SPOILERS FOLLOW
----------------------------------------
The series illustrates a fast take-off scenario. It tells the story of a fast-take-off scenario o... |
f0c2fccb-3058-45d9-93cc-0d171d23b26d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | World, mind, and learnability: A note on the metaphysical structure of the cosmos [& LLMs]
Cross-posted from New Savanna.
There is no a priori reason to believe that world has to be learnable. But if it were not, then we wouldn’t exist, nor would (most?) animals. The existing world, thus, is learnable. The human sen... |
00833a19-d10e-42f9-b262-c9fc4f94b893 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the VIX?
Original Post Here
The VIX is a unit of information within the financial market system that investment professionals use to make investment decisions. There are derivatives (options and futures) of that unit of information that investment professionals (and regular people) can use as tools to trade a... |
923a8aec-ebbb-44fd-8040-86168e72d9de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there an academic consensus around Rent Control?
Rent control is a type of policy where a maximum cap is put on what a landlord may charge tenants.
I've seen two sources that suggest that there is an (edit: academic economists) consensus against rent control:
1. A 2009 review.
2. 81% of economists agree against... |
85da7109-82fd-4701-a7aa-f5ccbc005854 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Text Watermarking a lost cause?
Summary:
A text watermark is some edit to a piece of text that makes its creator easy to identify. The main use for this would be to watermark Large Language Model outputs. This post explores how effective any text watermark could be in general. It does this by analyzing the smallest... |
2ef66efc-80b2-4356-9cd9-c6c2d2340115 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Frames in context
In my previous post, I introduced meta-rationality and frames, and described some examples of frames and some of their properties. In this post I’ll outline some of the limitations of existing ways of thinking about cognition, and some of the dynamics that they can’t describe which meta-rationality c... |
5d2611ad-ee34-463f-b8f1-04d3edef8683 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Camaraderie at scale: in search of shared identity
Originally published on substack: https://eliqian.substack.com/camaraderie
This tweet is an exaggeration, but only barely:
https://twitter.com/DrifterShoots/status/1515095665831026689?s=20
You yourself probably remember waking up during that time and just feeling di... |
6cb9d421-eff9-4b8e-93a5-35e3eef248eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Ilya Sutskever's "A Theory of Unsupervised Learning"
I highly recommend watching Sutskever's entire lecture instead of reading the AI-generated transcript[1], as he presents his ideas exceptionally well. I believe Sutskever's effort to formalize or demistify unsupervised learning is a solution to the control probl... |
026e90c4-8bc3-495f-af50-c78ba1223f76 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mistakes I’ve made, part 2: Father Christmas
I believed in Father Christmas for longer than I believed in God. This is mostly surprising because it is unusual. There was both more evidence for Father Christmas, and more motivation to propel cognition.
I stopped ‘believing’ in Father Christmas in grade seven, when my ... |
0177a1f9-9996-4988-b15b-76c50393fe6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Perceptron Controversy
Connectionism died in the 60s from technical limits to scaling, then resurrected in the 80s after backprop allowed scaling. The Minsky–Papert anti-scaling hypothesis explained, psychoanalyzed, and buried.
I wrote it as if it's a companion post to Gwern's The Scaling Hypothesis. |
92690b1e-92f2-424b-8735-bd8844109cd6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's up with AI's vision
This week I've read 2 pieces of interesting information:
* Apparently current models (in particular o3) are really good at GeoGuessr (Testing AI's GeoGuessr Genius),
* Apparently they have very had time understanding what they see on screenshots from Pokemon Red, even when stuff is clear... |
e7baf5cb-8266-4c41-9f6e-d4b70ce53403 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecasting AI Progress: A Research Agenda
AI forecasting is an important research area but lacking in a general direction. To address this issue we present a research agenda for AI forecasting that has been generated using the Delphi technique to elicit opinion from 15 leading researchers on the topic (the majority o... |
9b07e879-ee4a-43a6-8d03-e7847c544172 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Externally Oriented, Love, Sensational. Which Rationality will LW be about?
Short Version: Less Wrong has been trying to address rationality in all domains. This may prove too wide a scope. As it has been suggested, effectiveness changes should come soon. Those who just read the sequences need more a focused walkth... |
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