id stringlengths 36 36 | source stringclasses 15
values | formatted_source stringclasses 13
values | text stringlengths 2 7.55M |
|---|---|---|---|
3576215a-a4ab-467d-baa2-d4d8b3ab24ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Penny Whistle in E?
Lily has been trying to raise money for her class by busking, but it's cold enough that I don't want to play violin. I've been playing penny whistle, warm inside my pennywhistle mitten (thanks Julia!) but a lot of the fiddle tunes Lily plays are hard to play on a D whistle. A D whistle is good for ... |
b5e80a50-da92-47d0-be4b-779dd645d93e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Clippy, the friendly paperclipper
Edit: it's critical that this agent isn't directly a maximizer. Just like all current RL agents. See "Contra Strong Coherence". The question is whether it becomes a maximizer once it gets the ability to edit its value function.
On a sunny day in late August of 2031, the Acme papercli... |
aa839662-968f-402e-837c-3ed55342fbf5 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I've begun to notice a pattern with experiments in behavioral economics. An experiment produces a result that's counter-intuitive and surprising, and demonstrates that people don't behave as rationally as expected. Then, as time passes, other researchers contrive different versions of the experiment that show the expe... |
eba81161-190f-432e-8043-a9917bc89b42 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Le Tempistiche delle IA: il dibattito e il punto di vista degli “esperti”
*This is an Italian translation of* [***AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Stand***](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7JxsXYDuqnKMqa6Eq/ai-timelines-where-the-arguments-and-the-experts-stand)
*Versione audio disponib... |
d0b8963b-4cc5-410e-9dd6-816fcc2a0dac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow meetup: guest talk on why LW community is lazy and cowardly; double crux game
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow meetup: guest talk on why LW community is lazy and cowardly; double crux game
WHEN: 10 January 2016 02:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Москва, ул. Большая Дорогомиловская, д.5к2
Meta: most... |
7d7c8d65-5b2c-4173-9495-ecc9b25c86b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Restricted Antinatalism on Subagents
Introduction
Antinatalism is the position, or class of positions, which finds existence is not preferable to nonexistence and which tries to minimize the creation of new people who will then suffer. I found it through David Benatar's book Better Never to Have Been, although I've en... |
6d3e5917-9a3b-4c12-8c54-14128eab8039 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Preview button
Surely I can't be the first person to have thought of it, but Uncle Google suggests this hasn't been discussed before. Would it be difficult to make a preview button available when posting comments? Was it lacking from the software being used or is it just disabled? This blog uses different ways of text... |
17964f98-5add-4d25-8bea-77f24a53bcf0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Survey: Risks from AI
Related to: lesswrong.com/lw/fk/survey_results/
I am currently emailing experts in order to raise and estimate the academic awareness and perception of risks from AI and ask them for permission to publish and discuss their responses. User:Thomas suggested to also ask you, everyone who is reading... |
893d66ee-aef3-4243-80c7-ffa1ac65440d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Sorcerer's Apprentice" from Fantasia as an analogy for alignment
The story is simple: Mickey is an apprentice to a powerful sorcerer whose magic comes from his hat. Mickey is tasked with carrying buckets of water up a long flight of stairs and dumping them into a basin–hard work for a mouse! When the sorcerer steps o... |
2708eabd-9347-437c-90a3-bc6d79cb3903 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | A Framework for Understanding AI-Induced Field Change: How AI Technologies are Legitimized and Institutionalized
A Framework for Understanding AI -Induced Field Change: How
AI Technologies are Legitimized and Institutionalized
Benjamin Cedric Larsen
Department of Economics
Government & Business ... |
ee9349d8-4296-4268-92e1-d438fc84172a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Papers framing anthropic questions as decision problems?
A few weeks ago at a Seattle LW meetup, we were discussing the Sleeping Beauty problem and the Doomsday argument. We talked about how framing Sleeping Beauty problem as a decision problem basically solves it and then got the idea of using same heuristic on the D... |
67c0d21f-5955-4dad-bafa-f9ab5281c11b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2011 Summer Matching Challenge Success!
The $125,000, 2011 Summer Matching Challenge was a success! We met our goal 2 days early, raising $250,000 total for Singularity Institute operations. Here is the blog post announcement. |
6b175469-bf5d-4c30-a126-485cc3a66a91 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | ChatGPT: Tantalizing afterthoughts in search of story trajectories [induction heads]
Several times during my undergraduate years I would finish a paper, turn it in, the then ***Wham!*** it hit me. ***That*** should have been my theme. That is to say, I would get an idea and explore it in a paper, but it was only afte... |
e0ccd159-3a6c-4c99-bb04-b4043d284282 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Training AI to do alignment research we don’t already know how to do
This post heavily overlaps with “how might we safely pass the buck to AI?” but is written to address a central counter argument raised in the comments, namely “AI will produce sloppy AI alignment research that we don’t know how to evaluate.” I wrote ... |
98b0a789-d84f-4f86-96db-38f3566bdaad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Instantiating an agent with GPT-4 and text-davinci-003
[Meta-note: This post is extremely long, because I've included raw transcripts of LLM output interspersed throughout. These are enclosed in code blocks for ease of reading. I've tried to summarize and narrate what's happening outside of the code blocks, so you don... |
553d7aa3-f28f-41c6-8ed7-9595249e2ae1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Grounding Value Alignment with Ethical Principles
1 Introduction
---------------
Artificial intelligence (AI) is an attempt to imitate human intelligence. Indeed, Alan Turing’s idea of the Turing Test was originated from “the Imitation Game”—a game in which a man imitates a woman’s behavior to deceive the interroga... |
70b89703-f21d-4a5d-b28c-5a64cbf4730a | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post1160
Summary: The post describes a method that allows us to use an untrustworthy optimizer to find satisficing outputs. Acknowledgements: Thanks to Benjamin Kolb ( @benjaminko ), Jobst Heitzig ( @Jobst Heitzig ) and Thomas Kehrenberg ( @Thomas Kehrenberg ) for many helpful comments. Introduction Imagine you h... |
d49b01bd-b444-44aa-ba8b-a1dd870842c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quantum Neural Net and You
Been thinking about this theory for awhile and just wanted some feedback and thoughts regarding it.
Theory:
We are indeed living in a simulation, however, we are self learning AI constructs within this simulation. Simulation of this magnitude would require massive computing power and resou... |
1a78ddad-429e-4437-9b5e-5f52942260f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gemini 2.5 is the New SoTA
Gemini 2.5 Pro Experimental is America’s next top large language model.
That doesn’t mean it is the best model for everything. In particular, it’s still Gemini, so it still is a proud member of the Fun Police, in terms of censorship and also just not being friendly or engaging, or willing t... |
ec6e0816-1209-474a-a87c-320d06744785 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Exploring Beyond-Demonstrator via Meta Learning-Based Reward Extrapolation
I Introduction
---------------
Imitation learning (IL) aims to recover an expert policy from demonstrations of a specific task. IL is very effective for solving complex tasks with minimal expert knowledge when it is simpler for an expert to ... |
aa96e360-64ef-467b-8f87-c92f4db74874 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Meta?] Using the LessWrong codebase for a blog
I enjoy the experience of using less-wrong. I believe it's one of the best-designed websites I've ever had the pleasure of stumbling upon.
I also have a personal blog, and I've been considering revamping it. While I do enjoy coding from scratch, I've been considering us... |
e121a776-dc8c-45e1-82b1-d5577a5306ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Disentangling Representations through Multi-task Learning
Authors: Pantelis Vafidis, Aman Bhargava, Antonio Rangel.
Abstract:
> Intelligent perception and interaction with the world hinges on internal representations that capture its underlying structure ("disentangled" or "abstract" representations). Disentangled r... |
e557caa9-22d8-45de-bb51-ea428e03db74 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Competitive, Cooperative, and Cohabitive
Summary: I think there's a third genre of games, which I dub Cohabitive games, where your victory isn't tied to other players winning or losing.
(I’ve been writing this in bits and pieces for a while, and Peacewager was the impetus I needed to finally stitch it together and po... |
4cb8a172-c49f-4d5d-ac23-2d41af2dfcb4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evidential Correlations are Subjective, and it might be a problem
I explain (in layman's terms) a realization that might make acausal trade hard or impossible in practice.
Summary: We know that if players believe different Evidential Correlations, they might miscoordinate. But clearly they will eventually learn to ha... |
dc0ebdea-da28-41ec-baff-509b2051cda3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does AI care about reality or just its own perception?
Does a paperclip-maximizing AI care about the actual number of paperclips being made, or does it just care about its perception of paperclips?
If the latter, I feel like this contradicts some of the AI doom stories: each AI shouldn’t care about what future AIs do... |
a72017b8-960a-4bf3-9341-1a907b8d54eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (Maybe) A Bag of Heuristics is All There Is & A Bag of Heuristics is All You Need
Epistemic status: Theorizing on topics I’m not qualified for. Trying my best to be truth-seeking instead of hyping up my idea. Not much here is original, but hopefully the combination is useful. This hypothesis deserves more time and co... |
0d2a45f8-f089-46ed-bb59-05bdbd794ad1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Which subreddits should we create on Less Wrong?
Less Wrong is based on reddit code, which means we can create subreddits with relative ease.
Right now we have two subreddits, Main and Discussion. These are distinguished not by subject matter, but by whether a post is the type of thing that might be promoted to the f... |
b6a06f39-0980-4a22-8cc2-c94b0541ff6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My current framework for thinking about AGI timelines
At the beginning of 2017, someone I deeply trusted said they thought AGI would come in 10 years, with 50% probability.
I didn't take their opinion at face value, especially since so many experts seemed confident that AGI was decades away. But the possibility of im... |
356b3a4f-dc5c-4e78-8c81-8e687ced2f40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Caring about excellence
> “Anything worth doing, is worth doing right.”
― Hunter S Thompson
> “Be not professional in what you do, rather be excellent. Excellence has life in it — it has colors in it — it has sweetness in it — whereas professionalism is a dead corpse exuding the disgusting smell of obedience. Exc... |
f720edff-ad93-4b4b-83b8-bdaa0ef49568 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will we ever run out of new jobs?
A lot of the debate on long-term, structural technological unemployment can be summarized in three short statements:
* Concerns about the speed or scope of labor substitution have often been premature or exaggerated in the past.
* Labor substitution has been very positive for human... |
5517afd1-1774-40af-b99f-785f87443e38 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Precursor checking for deceptive alignment
This post is primarily an excerpt from “[Acceptability Verification: a Research Agenda](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/GeabLEXYP7oBMivmF/acceptability-verification-a-research-agenda)” that I think is useful enough on its own such that I’ve spun it off into its own post.... |
4970bf84-1653-4940-b17d-2ea970c43f0f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On R0
Epistemic Status: As with all of my Coronavirus posts, I am not any kind of expert. I am a person thinking out loud, who will doubtless make many mistakes. Treat accordingly. However, the concrete policy proposal contained herein seems right and I endorse it strongly.
Partly a response to (Overcoming Bias): Bew... |
4013df1b-63bd-4bba-8f46-1ebce9bced44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Trends in Training Dataset Sizes
Summary: We collected a database of notable ML models and their training dataset sizes. We use this database to find historical growth trends in dataset size for different domains, particularly language and vision.
Key takeaways
* We collected over 200 notable ML models and esti... |
c3360f20-c0d7-4c99-9d75-9624e71874f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Three more classes coming from Stanford of interest here
http://www.pgm-class.org/ - Probabilistic Graphical Models
http://www.nlp-class.org/ - Natural Language Processing
http://www.game-theory-class.org/ - Self explainatory
ETA:
http://infotheory-class.org/ |
d4d87efb-a4fd-4928-b026-bcbeb0565e80 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | François Chollet on the limitations of LLMs in reasoning
François Chollet, the creator of the Keras deep learning library, recently shared his thoughts on the limitations of LLMs in reasoning. I find his argument quite convincing and am interested to hear if anyone has a different take.
> The question of whether LLMs... |
67d6931d-6a21-4900-8cbe-1f1dfaad85bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dropout can create a privileged basis in the ReLU output model.
Abstract
This post summarises some interesting results on dropout in the ReLU output model. The ReLU output model, introduced here is a minimal toy model of a neural network which can exhibit features being in 'superposition', rather than a single 'neuron... |
9babc4c1-d092-427c-ae94-381dd671052f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dark Skies Book Review
Book review: Dark Skies: Space Expansionism, Planetary Geopolitics, and the Ends of Humanity, by Daniel Deudney.
Dark Skies is an unusually good and bad book.
Good in the sense that 95% of the book consists of uncontroversial, scholarly, mundane claims that accurately describe the views that D... |
4054a4e1-5c2f-4a63-9d6c-438f671ef2df | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | CHAI Newsletter 2017
5/4/22, 2:38 PM CHAI Newsletter - Q3 2017
https://mailchi.mp/03333358c1 12/chai-newsletter -q3-2017 1/5
This is the inaugural issue of the Center for Human-Compatible AI’s quarterly newsletter. CHAI’s mission
is to develop the conceptual and technical foundations required to build provably benefici... |
f16a0157-5ac8-4e62-aede-3f8295387e84 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, January 1-15, 2013
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, even in Discussion, it goes here. |
64b767ee-bc3a-4ba1-b7e5-aa2fb54182c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We should probably buy ADA?
Edit 2022: It seems like better systems have come along, and a crypto winter has set in, and Taleb argues that BTC will eventually go to zero and I'm inclined to agree, platforms will keep improving, it may be a long time before any of them are good enough to stick as a standard, applicatio... |
fec115e4-ddef-4473-a843-12f7a043eed7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Why I'm Blooking
Today's post, Why I'm Blooking was originally published on 15 September 2007. A summary:
> Now that Eliezer had posted over 100 blog posts, he created this post to lay out why exactly he was writing this series of posts. Understanding what he was trying to do can assist in understandin... |
0fdfcf86-bc45-4c75-bd1a-77c476475339 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Strategies to Prevent AI Annihilation
Tl;DR: A strong tactic against annihilation by an ASI, and for maximizing the chance of a post-scarcity utopia, is to take advantage of an ASI's likely bias towards minimizing risk
With practical, easily accessible language models releasing at an exponential rate, and realistic ... |
621bf45d-6566-4093-b23a-4b9c753c6238 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a good way to read deep into LW comment histories on mobile?
I sometimes like going through and reading a user’s comments, for those who make particularly good ones. But my mobile browser (Safari) loves refreshing pages when I haven’t been to the page for an hour. When this happens, I have to re-scroll down, ... |
92a1b479-5b98-4810-935c-156f0c0d7276 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Two problems with causal-counterfactual utility indifference
These are problems both for utility indifference and the causal version of factoring out variables. Thanks to Eliezer for pointing out the second problem.
Suppose there are two utility functions, Ua and Ub. There is some button; let B be the event that a bu... |
4bace5bc-402f-475e-981c-eb11b445c088 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In Defense Of Making Money
2 years ago habryka4 mentioned he'd love to see a comment I made developed into an article, and I agreed and said I was planning on doing it next Monday... anyway, 2 years later on <some> Monday I finally found the time.
Money is abundant and meaningless.
There are good founders with few r... |
a7d3cb76-8afc-46bf-bff2-604c19e821ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Art and Rationality
What are your thoughts on the role of Art in rationality (personal or otherwise) and in the singularity?
If one wants to help in the efforts of SIAI (or other organizations) does it make sense to focus on an art form as more than a hobby?
Is it rational to pursue an art form that encourages peopl... |
4f4c3b61-6489-4d3f-aa4f-427c1714751a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Power Buys You Distance From The Crime
Introduction
Taxes are typically meant to be proportional to money (or negative externalities, but that's not what I'm focusing on). But one thing money buys you is flexibility, which can be used to avoid taxes. Because of this, taxes aimed at the wealthy tend to end up hitting t... |
5efb912f-fd5d-4861-bcfb-28048a257f30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Air Conditioning
Growing up, I thought of air conditioning as extravagant. And AC for a large house, especially if it's poorly insulated or you only use a small part of the house, can get costly. On the other hand, AC for a single room is just pennies per hour, and if it lets you sleep well on a hot night or makes you... |
f937ae17-c2ab-4d3c-a626-f16b936ba304 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Playing Minecraft with a Superintelligence
TLDR: Through concrete scenic descriptions illustrate how I expect naive goal specifications to fail, for getting diamonds in Minecraft.
Not much beyond the concrete examples is original. Also checkout the excellent Specification Gaming video by Rational Animations.
The Se... |
254ecfd1-524e-4707-83dc-935d43f27470 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What are the different versions of decision theory?
The three main classes of [decision theory](https://www.alignmentforum.org/tag/decision-theory) are [causal decision theory](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/causal-decision-theory), [evidential decision theory](https://www.alignmentforum.org/tag/evidential-decision-the... |
625bc0cb-3efd-4aa4-ad77-a2f110e10e9b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The strategy-stealing assumption
Suppose that 1% of the world’s resources are controlled by unaligned AI, and 99% of the world’s resources are controlled by humans. We might hope that at least 99% of the universe’s resources end up being used for stuff-humans-like (in expectation).
Jessica Taylor argued for this conc... |
9148ae97-175f-48b8-b761-12d5ae577826 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Ray Kurzweil: Future of Intelligence | MIT 6.S099: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
welcome to MIT course 6 s 0 9 9
artificial general intelligence today we
have Ray Kurzweil he is one of the
world's leading inventors thinkers and
futurists with a 30-year track record of
accurate predictions called the Restless
g... |
02c14b47-7572-442f-8a04-0ea159a30aca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Letter in Time Magazine
FLI put out an open letter, calling for a 6 month pause in training models more powerful than GPT-4, followed by additional precautionary steps.
Then Eliezer Yudkowsky put out a post in Time, which made it clear he did not think that letter went far enough. Eliezer instead ... |
f445fca6-bd98-42c2-a0c1-49937b2b4319 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Strategies for differential divulgation of key ideas in AI capability
Openness makes the AI race worse
I will start with a short discussion of this article on the implications of openness in AI research. If you are very familiar with this argument, feel free to skip this section.
While the paper makes a lot of effort... |
b479caac-fbb4-4088-bbb9-fe2f759dc3f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learning Abstract Math from First Principles?
I find that I am usually quite good at applied math, and enjoy it. I am taking a course currently that is split into two parts, Vector Calculus and Complex Analysis. The vector calculus makes sense to me and I can see how and why it works, and I find it interesting and en... |
a550b1ab-5a2d-431f-8cfa-2d25a502d4f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Web Browser is Not Your Client (But You Don't Need To Know That)
(Part of a sequence on discussion technology and NNTP. As last time, I should probably emphasize that I am a crank on this subject and do not actually expect anything I recommend to be implemented. Add whatever salt you feel is necessary)1
---------... |
2d0d152a-8d56-4957-8074-df4bea0e6439 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Advice needed: Less Wrong Meetup Lesson plan on Communication
Hi Everyone,
I host a fortnightly Less Wrong Meetup self improvement logic teaching thing with some close friends of mine, and next session I want to look at Communication.
I was wondering what you guys thought would be some good resources for this, not o... |
797353a7-da12-4fe9-9dc4-48383c03aaaa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] New prize on causality in statistics education
"[Judea] Pearl is setting up a contest to help advance the teaching of causal inference in introductory statistics courses" (link). |
840782c4-e59d-4181-9ae1-3323dff53b16 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun and Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun and Games
WHEN: 09 August 2015 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery
Crossposted from the mailing list. As usual, congregation in the courtyard from 3:00 to 3:30 p.m., meeting proper 3:30 to closing.
We... |
dc8b32c8-4cc0-41c4-ac1c-cb5f4d0aeaf1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | First Three Episodes of The Filan Cabinet
I have a new podcast called “The Filan Cabinet”. It will be similar to AXRP, except instead of interviewing researchers about their work to study and reduce AI existential risk, I interview whoever I want to talk to about whatever I want to talk about. There are already three ... |
f205d658-4e33-4012-be3c-68207e85f24c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | FLF Fellowship on AI for Human Reasoning: $25-50k, 12 weeks
The Future of Life Foundation is launching a fellowship on AI for Human Reasoning, which we think could be decisive in averting existential risk.
> Fellowship on AI for Human Reasoning
> Apply by June 9th | $25k–$50k stipend | 12 weeks, from July 14 - Octob... |
7be40d84-222d-4b63-947a-92f844f96e3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Superintelligence chapter 6
Discussion article for the meetup : Superintelligence chapter 6
WHEN: 26 May 2017 05:45:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Lindstedtsvägen 3, room 1537, SE-114 28 Stockholm, Sverige
1. Cognitive superpowers
Functionalities and superpowers
An AI takeover scenario
Power over nature and agent... |
b4fc0155-9593-41bd-a6e5-b58742586e31 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Breaking Oracles: superrationality and acausal trade
I've always known this was the case in the back of my mind[[1]](#fn-Ms9wNTNomF499bRn8-1), but it's worth making explicit: [superrationality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superrationality) (ie a functional UDT) and/or acausal trade will break [counterfactual and low... |
ac904a30-b82e-4c39-b7ef-2353719f12c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #129]: Explaining double descent by measuring bias and variance
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the ... |
b320adec-2e7d-40cd-bb4a-fe5f956f1c64 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Fort Collins Meetup Saturday 17th
Discussion article for the meetup : Fort Collins Meetup Saturday 17th
WHEN: 17 March 2012 05:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 144 North College Avenue, Fort Collins, CO 80524
As requested, we're trying a weekend night to shake things up.
Meet down town for coffee, then back to my h... |
91c6af23-2d15-4ae5-943c-690bdc1283c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Superintelligence 14: Motivation selection methods
This is part of a weekly reading group on Nick Bostrom's book, Superintelligence. For more information about the group, and an index of posts so far see the announcement post. For the schedule of future topics, see MIRI's reading guide.
------------------------------... |
9507bcbc-28db-4375-992d-dceca1ffa66a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate
> Saar Wilf is an ex-Israeli entrepreneur. Since 2016, he’s been developing a new form of reasoning, meant to transcend normal human bias.
>
> His method - called Rootclaim - uses Bayesian reasoning, a branch of math that explains the right way ... |
12d7e9d0-72b2-4351-9191-85dfaff213ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Coordination Surveys: why we should survey to organize responsibilities, not just predictions
Summary: I think it’s important for surveys about the future of technology or society to check how people's predictions of the future depend on their beliefs about what actions or responsibilities they and others will take on... |
4d211f31-6cc2-4f6e-9bcc-a9c00e96ab33 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The Low-Hanging Fruit Prior and sloped valleys in the loss landscape
*You can find code for the referenced experiments in* [*this GitHub repository*](https://github.com/nrimsky/mlexperiments)
Many have postulated that training large neural networks will enforce a simplicity, or[Solomonoff prior](https://www.lesswrong... |
b22cb504-924b-4d53-b00c-fe61442ba212 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda
I’ve gone through a lot of introductions to this post but maybe this is the most honest one:
I am scared. Quite scared, actually. My chances of catching COVID-19 are actually quite low, and my chances of surviving it if I do are quite high, and I’m still scared. What if I get into a car a... |
a5dd4aa0-3e5c-41fe-8c04-44ebcf2e7d5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A concrete bet offer to those with short AGI timelines
[Update 4 (12/23/2023): Tamay has now conceded.]
[Update 3 (3/16/2023): Matthew has now conceded.]
[Update 2 (11/4/2022): Matthew Barnett now thinks he will probably lose this bet. You can read a post about how he's updated his views here.]
[Update 1: we have t... |
49389b24-73c5-4485-8d72-ba4aabd7d0a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why no major LLMs with memory?
One thing that I'm slightly puzzled by is that an obvious improvement to LLMs would be adding some kind of long-term memory that would allow them to retain more information than fits their context window. Naively, I would imagine that even just throwing some recurrent neural net layers ... |
58b6dfd4-dba9-46e5-8590-816fa0a20539 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Brief Introduction to ACI, 2: An Event-Centric View
In the previous chapter , we have introduced the basic principle of ACI:
Intelligent Agents should behave the same way as past behaviors which are doing the right thing.
But where are those examples of doing the right thing? This chapter will answer this questio... |
c71e5ba2-dd8c-45c5-a32f-27a1223a11ac | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | ThriftyDAgger: Budget-Aware Novelty and Risk Gating for Interactive Imitation Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Imitation learning (IL) [[1](#bib.bib1), [2](#bib.bib2), [3](#bib.bib3)] has seen success in a variety of robotic tasks ranging from autonomous driving [[4](#bib.bib4), [5](#bib.bib5), [6](#bib.bib6... |
cb74a725-0bcc-46ef-bd7c-d8b5e3045b25 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Transformative AI and Compute [Summary]
*Cross-posted [here on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3eRJPFhwhGZZzfifF/transformative-ai-and-compute-summary)*.
This is the summary of the series *Transformative AI and Compute - A holistic approach*. You can find [the sequence here](https://www.lessw... |
6daafc6c-be51-4ad6-8b76-1642ce53a8b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Future of Structured Self Improvement
Two years ago, we founded the Guild of the ROSE to provide structure and community for people interested in self improvement. Since then, we've grown from a three-month Alpha project to a year-round workshop host.
If you've been in our Discord server, you've probably seen reg... |
c039f11f-7f2f-4606-aa89-03353ab3e8d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to better understand and participate on LW
Update! New URL:
!!!
http://lesswrong.com/lw/2un/references_resources_for_lesswrong/
!!!
Out-of-date:
A list capturing all background knowledge you might ever need for LW.
Updated: 2010-10-10
* F = Free
* E = Easy (adequate for a low educational background)
... |
58d5e5ee-f711-48dc-9e1d-b5d79bf9936d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sleeping Beauty as a decision problem (solved)
EDIT: User:Misha solved it
----------------------------------------
First, here's the Sleeping Beauty problem, from Wikipedia:
> The paradox imagines that Sleeping Beauty volunteers to undergo the following experiment. On Sunday she is given a drug that sends her to... |
f7b862ad-6ebd-462d-bd71-780e30841807 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Infra-Bayesianism Applicable to Value Learning?
My impression, as someone just starting to learn Infra-Bayesianism, is that it's about caution, lower bounds on utility (which is exactly the way anything trying to overcome the Optimizer's Curse should be reasoning, especially in an environment already heavily optimi... |
0a9a14c2-67e3-4326-828e-141eb34419f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mistakes #4: breaking Chesterton’s fence in the presence of bull
(Mistakes #1, #2, #3)
Lots of prominent activities don’t immediately make pragmatic sense. I mean, they make sense in the sense that you want to do them, but not in the sense that you can give an explicit account of why you want to do them.
For instanc... |
0c46c09d-f1dd-42e1-a7ea-d001bc56a64a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LLMs are really good at k-order thinking (where k is even)
I've noticed something about how humans and language models work together. There's a pattern that emerges whenever we collaborate effectively.
It goes like this: Someone has an initial idea (step 1). An LLM can then generate variations and connections around... |
a7335d95-9669-4c06-9b24-de5097de31e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Benevolence
This post examines the virtue of benevolence. I wrote this not as an expert, but as someone who wants to learn more. I hope it helps people who want to know more about this virtue and how to nurture it.
What is benevolence?
Benevolence (sometimes “goodness” or “goodwill”) is the belief that some... |
87a16655-c9db-4829-b823-cda572115728 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Social Necessity of Drinking
It's been over a year since I graduated from college, but only recently have I felt like I'm officially entering the "adult world." Navigating the social arenas of the adult world requires the same basic skillsets as the college world, but a lot of the rules are different and I'm strugglin... |
c345b640-f227-46e5-a956-66be8e76b988 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Liars for Jesus
This should be of interest to a few members of this forum: Chris Rodda has made her book, Liars for Jesus, available for free online (pdf). The book is a debunking of modern revisionist histories written by authors like David Barton and Gary DeMar. Topics range from the obvious (no, Jefferson was not a... |
eeb96d12-db2f-4f54-b84d-12e75673f740 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We Are Conjecture, A New Alignment Research Startup
Conjecture is a new alignment startup founded by Connor Leahy, Sid Black and Gabriel Alfour, which aims to scale alignment research. We have VC backing from, among others, Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross, Patrick and John Collison, Arthur Breitman, Andrej Karpathy, and Sa... |
d4b3a1cf-f776-4883-8679-1023e1f8db5a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open & Welcome Thread — February 2023
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are invi... |
c354a138-138a-4ab9-a698-26ce8b1a30b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (Anti)Aging 101
A quest to solve aging must start with careful consideration of what it is.
Aging is a constant in nature, from archaea to elephants. Where life finds death as counterpart, aging is unopposed, yet frames our understanding of both.
To solve aging is to prevent death and avoid decay.
Death is a rather... |
47e89ab9-f1c6-4a65-be71-95595457c56e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | OpenAI wants to raise 5-7 trillion
This 5-7 trillion is to enhance GPU production and he also sees revenue doubling from current $2 billion to $4 billion next year.
I’m taking a guess GPT-5 training is going well? |
32b95145-9583-47df-8f4e-fb5b69161a4b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Bayes' rule: Proportional form
If $H_i$ and $H_j$ are hypotheses and $e$ is a piece of evidence, [Bayes' rule](https://arbital.com/p/1lz) states:
$$\dfrac{\mathbb P(H_i)}{\mathbb P(H_j)} \times \dfrac{\mathbb P(e\mid H_i)}{\mathbb P(e\mid H_j)} = \dfrac{\mathbb P(H_i\mid e)}{\mathbb P(H_j\mid e)}$$
%%if-after([http... |
2343564a-54b7-4c20-9793-1cedb2481387 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LessWrong FAQ
This is a new FAQ written LessWrong 2.0. This is the first version and I apologize if it is a little rough. Please comment or message with further questions, typos, things that are unclear, etc.
The old FAQ on the LessWrong Wiki still contains much excellent information, however it has not been kept up ... |
7e5d7135-0b69-4ec3-9e2e-abb512daa2ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Denver Area LW March Meetup (CHANGED TO MONDAY 3/6!)
Discussion article for the meetup : Denver Area LW March Meetup (CHANGED TO MONDAY 3/6!)
WHEN: 06 March 2017 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 4955 S Ulster St #103, Denver, CO 80237
Meetup has been pushed forward a day on account of all of Darcy's being totally... |
1e5f29c9-7faa-4700-a6e8-4c26e5dd8578 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Role playing game based on HPMOR in Moscow
Discussion article for the meetup : Role playing game based on HPMOR in Moscow
WHEN: 17 September 2016 03:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Большая Дорогомиловская, 5к2
Welcome to our custom made role playing game "Hogwarts and methods of rationality", inspired by HPMOR stor... |
c73d6493-895b-4401-96ea-59e8307e491d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Magnitude of His Own Folly
In the years before I met that would-be creator of Artificial General Intelligence (with a funded project) who happened to be a creationist, I would still try to argue with individual AGI wannabes.
In those days, I sort-of-succeeded in convincing one such fellow that, yes, you had to ta... |
f8d22145-993e-4edf-b993-bb35d7b77d15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | PM system is not working
enough people have reported this that i wanted to make it publicly known. on my phone so will let others provide more detail |
653481ec-4298-45e2-aa9e-43b7be07d638 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Protagonist Problem
Followup to: Neural Correlates of Conscious Access; Related to: How an Algorithm Feels From the Inside, Dissolving the Question
Global Workspace Theory and its associated Theater Metaphor are empirically plausible, but why should it result in consciousness? Why should globally available inform... |
0a27cad6-10ee-4ed9-9f9a-0d8daf3f5810 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | AISC2: Research Summaries
The second AI Safety Camp took place this October in Prague. Our teams have worked on exciting projects which are summarized below:
#### AI Governance and the Policymaking Process: Key Considerations for Reducing AI Risk:
Team: Policymaking for AI Strategy – Brandon Perry, Risto Uuk
... |
2e619097-4edd-45b7-a644-e64837aecb43 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | How I failed to form views on AI safety
*This post describes my personal experience. It was written to clear my mind but edited to help interested people understand others in similar situations.*
2016. At a role playing convention, my character is staring at the terminal window on a computer screen. The terminal has ... |
bded2c49-0bac-40c0-a8e4-73aa56c34a12 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI companies’ unmonitored internal AI use poses serious risks
AI companies’ unmonitored internal AI use poses serious risks
AI companies use their own models to secure the very systems the AI runs on. They should be monitoring those interactions for signs of deception and misbehavior.
AI companies use powerful unrele... |
d16d1938-58e7-4617-8a23-914835ff255b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Human Capital Contracts
Cross-posted on my blog here. Partially inspired by some slatestarcodex discussion here.
Summary: Human Capital Contracts would allow people sell a certain % of their future income in return for upfront cash, as opposed to taking out a loan. This would be less risky for them, would give them v... |
b0e8234f-1878-4c30-972b-d92b63f8ace5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Context And People
TL;DR: Contrasting views of the research landscape, a prototype for automating scientific debate, and determining the importance of authorship. Also an analysis of the moral aspects of wearing socks.
Disclaimer: This is coming from a rather neuroscience-centric perspective. I'd be curious if the... |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.