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8ccdd035-9a3c-4e27-bace-0588fbb13efe | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AI Risk for Epistemic Minimalists
*Financial status: This is independent research, now supported by a grant. I welcome further* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
*Epistemic status: This is an attempt to use only very robust arguments.*
---
Outline
-------
* I outline a case for c... |
14352025-0e1d-48c1-b2e2-07ec7b0e8572 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can Large Language Models effectively identify cybersecurity risks?
TL;DR
I was interested in the ability of LLMs to discriminate input scenarios/stories that carry high vs low cyber risk, and found that it is one of the “hidden features” present in most later layers of Mistral7B.
I developed and analyzed “linear ... |
c088fe38-a963-4a71-90f7-00790612fd5a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Retrospective: PIBBSS Fellowship 2023
Between June and September 2023, we (Nora and Dusan) ran the second iteration of the PIBBSS Summer Fellowship. In this post, we share some of our main reflections about how the program went, and what we learnt about running it.
We first provide some background information about... |
f8e73403-89e2-4f04-9dbe-29eecb598a2d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EA Forum Creative Writing Contest: $10,000 in prizes for good stories
We just launched a creative writing contest on the Effective Altruism Forum. Stories like HPMOR and The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant have been massively impactful, and we'd like to see more work in that vein — please consider submitting something!
No... |
7da91d1b-4a4e-4d1b-8510-d7fc503635b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What does it mean to "believe" a thing to be true?
None |
4644311e-3902-46d9-9e1c-f5514c9e1de1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety Newsletter #40: California AI Legislation
Plus, NVIDIA Delays Chip Production, and Do AI Safety Benchmarks Actually Measure Safety?
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
Listen to the AI Safety Newslett... |
3af8549e-ebb5-40de-95c7-fcf10beb0680 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Reinforcement Learning 1: Introduction to Reinforcement Learning
welcome this is going to be the first
lecture in the reinforcement learning
tract of this course now as story will
have explained there are more or less
two separate tracks in this course or
overlap between the deep learning side
and the reinforcement in... |
b22f2dd3-e82f-475c-97e3-b6b2c9bebdca | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Fast Minds and Slow Computers
The long term future [may be absurd](/lw/j6/why_is_the_future_so_absurd/) and difficult to predict in particulars, but much can happen in the short term.
Engineering itself is the practice of focused short term prediction; optimizing some small subset of future pattern-space for fun and... |
9c6badb6-266f-40f6-be55-e33c2733545e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How has lesswrong changed your life?
I've been wondering what effect joining lesswrong and reading the sequences has on people.
How has lesswrong changed your life?
What have you done differently?
What have you done? |
2dcb5dc2-8bc3-4f4e-8ef0-220b136fa8e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Motivators: Altruistic Actions for Non-Altruistic Reasons
Introduction
Jane is an effective altruist: she researches, donates, and volunteers in the highest impact ways she can find. Jane has been intending to write an effective altruism book for over a year, but hasn't managed to overcome the akrasia. Jane then meets... |
ca9d6ca3-335b-44ef-8b34-b8b54933b1b6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | And the AI would have got away with it too, if...
Paul Christiano presented some low-key [AI catastrophe scenarios](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/HBxe6wdjxK239zajf/more-realistic-tales-of-doom); in response, Robin Hanson [argued](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/04/agency-failure-ai-apocalypse.html) that Paul... |
566b6752-3f43-4d34-b61b-f0bc98b8ac11 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | A Spectrum of Applications of Automated Reasoning
1 Background and Perspective
-----------------------------
In this article, we make a strong case for the use in diverse applications of an automated reasoning program by mathematicians and logicians.
The basis consists of brief discussions (in Section 3) of success... |
ade3f3e0-7ccc-4c95-a462-0c0ea3932cb6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cognitive Risks of Adolescent Binge Drinking
The takeaway
Our goal was to quantify the cognitive risks of heavy but not abusive alcohol consumption. This is an inhernetly difficult task: the world is noisy, humans are highly variable, and institutional review boards won’t let us do challenge trials of known poisons. T... |
353e26e8-0696-4f96-9b7a-021e553852d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On May 1, 2033, humanity discovered that AI was fairly easy to align.
Not most AI models on the market, to be clear, but a specific type of AI that was already well-studied could act as a seed: the LLM. Really, all that was needed to achieve alignment was simple: Take a sufficiently large Large Language Model, and tra... |
3aef1cba-6182-4bbf-aabe-fb5fe0a9c172 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Aristotelian Optimization: The Economics of Cameralism
When we learn about Mercantilism in History of Economic Thought classes, we generally tend to associate this intellectual movement with policy makers like Thomas Mun and Jean Colbert and with ideas like the monetary balance of payments and trade protectionism. How... |
8f6224b9-4c1b-46bb-99eb-b88295a0ab02 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beware using words off the probability distribution that generated them.
Suppose Alice is thinking about some feature of the real world. To make the graphs easier to draw, this example is a continuous 1d variable. Alice has a probability distribution that looks like this.
A 2 humped probability distribution.
In order... |
5fb95102-33d6-446a-af2c-861a28d32dbf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | GPT-2: Why Didn't They Release It? - Computerphile
So, I think it's worth talking a little bit because like I'm usually talking to you about
safety
About the decision that opening I made to not release the fully trained
Model the big one
So because this has not been released we know that it works like a transformer le... |
ac39a468-a492-4a7c-8d5d-23e6de643d8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Probabilities Small Enough To Ignore: An attack on Pascal's Mugging
Summary: the problem with Pascal's Mugging arguments is that, intuitively, some probabilities are just too small to care about. There might be a principled reason for ignoring some probabilities, namely that they violate an implicit assumption behind ... |
ddab7596-cb8e-4451-9425-1d9dcca58979 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deradicalizing Islamist Extremists (DC, March 13)
I've never been to a Rumi Forum event, but the topic (how individuals or groups abandon extremist groups and ideologies) and the key question (whether to try to change behavior or beliefs) are relevent to LessWrong.
Rumi Forum presents: "Deradicalizing Islamist Extrem... |
1bf0c3a3-3c13-47be-ad92-b478caeff654 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Sorting Pebbles Into Correct Heaps
Once upon a time there was a strange little species—that might have been biological, or might have been synthetic, and perhaps were only a dream—whose passion was sorting pebbles into correct heaps.
They couldn't tell you *why* some heaps were correct, and some incorrect. But all ... |
5193314b-9e4a-4584-8db5-9e90971c5713 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Shortest Path Between Scylla and Charybdis
tl;dr: There's two diametrically opposed failure modes an alignment researcher can fall into: engaging in excessively concrete research whose findings won't timely generalize to AGI, and engaging in excessively abstract research whose findings won't timely connect to the ... |
644bc1e0-1892-47a9-bb2f-84ea40595e91 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Social Desirability Bias vs. Intelligence Research
From EconLog by Bryan Caplan.
> When lies sound better than truth, people tend to lie. That's Social Desirability Bias for you. Take the truth, "Half the population is below the 50th percentile of intelligence." It's unequivocally true - and sounds awful. ... |
b5edefb1-4009-4346-9a73-5684d2b9d6fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Any taxonomies of conscious experience?
I have some expertise in machine learning and AI. I broadly believe that human minds are similar to modern AI algorithms such as deep learning and reinforcement learning. I also believe that it is likely that consciousness is present wherever algorithms are executing (a form of ... |
c2687aac-3b86-4c39-a3af-907c6074b85b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | (tentatively) Found 600+ Monosemantic Features in a Small LM Using Sparse Autoencoders
Using a sparse autoencoder, I present evidence that the resulting decoder (aka "dictionary") learned 600+ features for Pythia-70M layer\_2's mid-MLP (after the GeLU), although I expect around 8k-16k features to be learnable.
Dictio... |
40c95de9-331d-408c-bb75-c8c3a84260a5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing TAIS 2024
AI Safety Tokyo is hosting TAIS 2024, a Technical AI Safety Conference. The conference will take place in Tokyo, Japan on April 5th, 2024. Details about the event can be found here.
The goal of this conference is to bring together specialists in the field of AI and technical safety to share their... |
556a6d86-1100-43b6-8640-07550e376685 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Poem Is All You Need: Jailbreaking ChatGPT, Meta & More
> This project report was created in September 2024 as part of the BlueDot AI Safety Fundamentals Course, with the guidance of my facilitator, Alexandra Abbas. Work on this project originated as part of an ideation at a Apart Research hackathon.
This report... |
75e68359-6fc1-48e1-83f8-5c0464a15105 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Resist the Happy Death Spiral
Today's post, Resist the Happy Death Spiral was originally published on 04 December 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> You can avoid a Happy Death Spiral by (1) splitting the Great Idea into parts (2) treating every additional detail as burdensome (3) thinking abo... |
3a753f7d-cf19-4447-9ba5-0751bf94444e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Madison
Discussion article for the meetup : Madison
WHEN: 27 September 2011 06:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 2100 Winnebago St, Madison WI
Another Madison meetup! This time, we'll do some probability calibration exercises. (These gave me some fairly surprising results; perhaps you'll learn something too!)
Barrin... |
dcd0ca99-c3c5-40ba-b70a-3cead2e1453f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | concat (function)
The string concatenation function `concat` puts two [strings](https://arbital.com/p/3jr) together, i.e., `concat("one","two")="onetwo"`. |
a90c2638-6ca3-4128-a9db-9330770fe0fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If you've learned from the best, you're doing it wrong
i - Working out
Say you've read up on the studies about exercise and you've decided to dedicate 30 to 90 minute of every day purely to improve your body. You like the CV benefits, but also, you agree that strength, stability, postural awareness and whatnot play an... |
591f899e-d4ca-4513-a758-4ae325b8130a | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Continuation of: The Power of Positivist Thinking
Consider this statement: The ultra-rich, who control the majority of our planet's wealth, spend their time at cocktail parties and salons while millions of decent hard-working people starve. A soft positivist would be quite happy with this proposition. If we define "th... |
96347e72-6a30-473a-8760-f0beb3769a98 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Aligned monetization of modern dating
In a sentence: Bid/donate/pay what you want upfront, held in escrow upon a successful outcome confirmed by all involved individuals. At payment time, you can change your bid/donation/payment based on your more-fully-informed evaluation of the dating app’s value.
I don’t have the ... |
f1b6958a-3da3-4738-ad57-4eff48161f1d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link] "Paper strips" memory technique
I was skimming reddit and someone named Yakari posted in response to “what are your best studying techniques?” They described a studying method where they overlay strips of paper vertically on top of their notes as they study them, periodically adding more strips to obscure more ... |
9a9a0a95-4d11-42d5-81cb-08cf89023503 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Consequentialism is for making decisions
(Thought I'd try posting here some various rationality "quick thoughts" that I feel like I haven't seen expressed overtly enough -- sometimes I've already written about these elsewhere, but thought would be good to get them down here. Adapted from this old blog post of mine but... |
8a16af52-b3e8-4087-ae7b-fb3e0fa583b8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The application of the secretary problem to real life dating
The following problem is best when not described by me:
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_problem>
Although there are many variations, the basic problem can be stated as follows:
There is a single secretarial position to fill.
There ... |
50f477d0-abc9-4f7d-90e1-8dc527d165f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Ottawa Weekly Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Ottawa Weekly Meetup
WHEN: 12 September 2011 07:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Pub Italia: 434 Preston St, Ottawa, ON
Type: Discussion & Skill training
Date: Monday September 12, 7:30pm until at least 9:00pm.
Venue: Pub Italia
(likely in a booth in the abb... |
4519bdef-ef1b-4017-9d87-7b2845f8db30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Selective social policing
Suppose you really want to punish people who were born on a Tuesday, because you have an irrational loathing of them. Happily you rule the country. But sadly, you only rule it because the voting populace thinks you are kind and just and not at all vindictive and arbitrary. What do you do? One... |
b09b5bd1-1f1e-492b-9fd5-a50986768c48 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Survival in the immoral maze of college
My composition teacher in college told me that in some pottery schools, the teacher holds up your pot, examines it, comments on it, and then smashes it on the floor. They do this for your first 100 pots.
In that spirit, this post's epistemic status is SMASH THIS POT.
As an old... |
da2b6087-0c29-4326-b0bd-ce4576500e32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Choosing battles (on the Internet)
A couple years ago, I noticed that I'd been holding onto a mindset that was counterproductive, and I've often seen this same mindset in some of the online communities I visit. I like talking with people who believe in the truth-seeking power of good-faith disagreements, but some of t... |
2f13aee1-2b28-4359-8c0c-070b0cdbe997 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why did the Ming treasure voyages end in 1433?
When I read sources like Wikipedia on the Ming treasure voyages there doesn't seem to be a clear conclusion about why they ended. Did anybody on LessWrong do deeper research and came to a conclusion? |
b36ecb45-f35a-47d7-a07e-a947f0cbda5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lifelong investments
I love living in Boston, and find the benefits go up each year. The longer I've been here, the more people I know, and the more integrated I am into my local communities. Friends move here because they like the community we've built and want to be closer. The house I've slowly been renovating gets... |
a6e7922d-935a-46a9-9417-9c487e00c1b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unikernels: No Longer an Academic Exercise
Introduction
I've been following the unikernel area for years and I really liked the idea, but I was unconvinced about the possibility of the wide-scale adoption of the technology.
The cost was just too high. It required you to forget everything you knew, to drop all the exi... |
3d30ffb0-fbf0-4d3d-ad56-5222e767e1a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Deadly Will Roughly-Human-Level AGI Be?
> Which is not to say that recursive self-improvement happens before the end of the world; if the first AGI's mind is sufficiently complex and kludgy, it’s entirely possible that the cognitions it implements are able to (e.g.) crack nanotech well enough to kill all humans, b... |
bc965ef8-3f08-44f0-bd12-e0b3d3049b2c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A breakdown of priors and posteriors - an example from medicine
This post is lifted (with edits) from my comment on a thread on Reddit that talked about a blood test that detected amyloid plaque, a potential precursor to Alzheimers. A top-level commenter felt that the fact that the test couldn't tell for certain wheth... |
b382b3a5-99d6-49b4-ba3b-4ad5a4f42d60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI safety should be made more accessible using non text-based media
I've been doing some thinking on AI safety's awareness problem, after a quick search I found that this post summarizes my thoughts pretty well. In short, AI safety has an awareness problem in a way that other major crises do not (I'll draw parallels s... |
55dca4b2-74c9-48ee-b4f4-443cf55bdc85 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Slightly against aligning with neo-luddites
To summarize,
* When considering whether to delay AI, the choice before us is not merely whether to accelerate or decelerate the technology. We can choose what *type* of regulations are adopted, and some options are much better than others.
* Neo-luddites do not fundamental... |
aebf244a-ebd1-4568-9652-c90623093d7c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Third London Rationalist Meeting
The Third London Rationalist Meeting will take place on Sunday, 2009-06-07, 14:00, at the usual location - cafe on top of Waterstones bookstore near Piccadilly Circus Tube Station.
Here's map how to get to the venue.
There were some suggestions of trying alternative venue, but as nob... |
df214927-27e0-4925-8b8b-782cd79e7aae | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Disjoint union of sets
summary(Technical): The phrase "disjoint union" is used to mean one of two slightly different operations on [sets](https://arbital.com/p/3jz). It indicates either "just take the [union](https://arbital.com/p/5s8), but also notice that we've been careful to ensure that the sets have empty [inters... |
2278037a-35cf-4caa-916a-bb246cefde3e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | To what extent is GPT-3 capable of reasoning?
ETA 8/19/20: This interview was conducted with AIDungeon's Dragon model in Custom mode. At the time of writing, this mode's first reply was sampled from GPT-2.
Interview #1
Here are excerpts from a recent "interview", which I conducted to replicate earlier maybe-reasoni... |
7035118b-73cc-4bbf-924f-91001034d17f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What is the EU AI Act and why should you care about it?
On April 21 the European Commission announced their [proposal for European regulation of AI](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52021PC0206)
The proposal strives to be for AI what GDPR has been for data protection.
Over the coming ... |
bf4beabd-1ff0-41e9-af80-447f8fef25e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When Hindsight Isn't 20/20: Incentive Design With Imperfect Credit Allocation
A crew of pirates all keep their gold in one very secure chest, with labelled sections for each pirate. Unfortunately, one day a storm hits the ship, tossing everything about. After the storm clears, the gold in the chest is all mixed up. Th... |
78cc57ed-4ebf-4aaa-93d0-494d6303ca7a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Unpacking "Shard Theory" as Hunch, Question, Theory, and Insight
I read several [shard theory posts](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/nyEFg3AuJpdAozmoX) and found the details interesting, but I couldn't quite see the big picture. I'm used to hearing "theory" refer to [*a falsifiable generalization of data*](https://en.wiki... |
81485865-1869-4854-a07c-4e28cea8ea03 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | List of AI safety courses and resources
*By: Daniel del Castillo, Chris Leong, and Kat Woods*
We [made a spreadsheet of resources for learning about AI safety](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QSEWjXZuqmG6ORkig84V4sFCldIntyuQj7yq3gkDo0U/edit#gid=0). It was for internal purposes here at [Nonlinear](http://nonli... |
7fa03b63-7c42-4156-ac5a-2d5a81157309 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Your memory eventually drives confidence in each hypothesis to 1 or 0
Our memory tends to contain less and less information. We forget certain things, and our memory about others become simplified, and a complex article boils down to “X is bad, Y is good, try to do better".
One unexpected consequence of this is how i... |
e61b611e-9084-48ac-90de-99f4d199340b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci September 2022 Evaluation and Ruleset
This is a followup to the D&D.Sci post I made ten days ago; if you haven’t already read it, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
Here is the web interactive I built to let you evaluate your solution; below is an explanation of the rules used to generate the data... |
742d9208-23e8-4b90-98ff-e6c5b11584aa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #59] How arguments for AI risk have changed over time
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMbN... |
5adc5276-162c-4915-8d77-ab962d61ae62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality quotes: March 2010
This is our monthly thread for collecting these little gems and pearls of wisdom, rationality-related quotes you've seen recently, or had stored in your quotesfile for ages, and which might be handy to link to in one of our discussions.
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they... |
3e77de77-28e0-4d55-9aa3-59177e4ceee8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI will know: Humans are not Rational
I have been hesitant to post this here for some time now, but I think in light of current developments surrounding ChatGPT and other recent advances I felt compelled to finally go ahead and find out what the venerable crowd at LessWrong has to say about it.
Very briefly, what I ... |
49ef0de4-940e-4db0-a5e2-49b01e995a4e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Will AGI cause mass technological unemployment?
I believe that currently existing narrow AI systems are unlikely to cause technological unemployment. [This paper](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~tom/pubs/AEA2018-WhatCanMachinesLearn.pdf) finds that narrow AI can automate individual tasks but not entire jobs; however, it speci... |
5e062949-13e4-4424-9e87-f4f98faa1d5a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Contra Hanson on AI Risk
Robin Hanson wrote a new post [recapping his position on AI risk](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/ai-risk-again) ([LW discussion](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AL6DRuE8s4yLn3yBo/robin-hanson-s-latest-ai-risk-position-statement)). I've been in the Eliezer AI-risk camp for a while, and while ... |
4b87d027-0546-4644-8011-58dde78c22c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Personal (Interim) COVID-19 Postmortem
I think it's important to clearly and publicly admit when we were wrong. It's even better to diagnose why, and take steps to prevent doing so again. COVID-19 is far from over, but given my early stance on a number of questions regarding COVID-19, this is my attempt at a public ... |
ed143067-99aa-47dc-8651-197df24044e0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | If Contractualism, Then AMF
This post is a part of Rethink Priorities’ Worldview Investigations Team’s [CURVE Sequence](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/WdL3LE5LHvTwWmyqj): “Causes and Uncer... |
338a1915-f088-46b2-ad7d-00ee13e9bc50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking Interns/RAs for Mechanistic Interpretability Projects
UPDATE: The deadline for applying for this is 11:59pm PT Sat 27 Aug. I'll be selecting candidates following a 2 week (paid) work trial, 10hr/week starting Sept 12 where participants pick a concrete research idea and try to make progress on it.
------------... |
6c9cf032-5ade-4b8f-bd24-9e58f8c0cb71 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Number bias
The New York Times ran an editorial about an interesting type of cognitive bias: according to the article, the fact that our system of timekeeping is based on factors of 24, 7, etc. and the fact that we have 10 fingers profoundly influences our way of thinking. As the article explains, this bias is distinc... |
5232db30-7e6c-4151-a80b-fc11a8d4657c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Preface to CLR's Research Agenda on Cooperation, Conflict, and TAI
The [Center on Long-Term Risk (CLR)](https://longtermrisk.org/) is focused on [reducing risks of astronomical suffering](https://foundational-research.org/cause-prioritization-downside-focused-value-systems/), or *s-risks*, from transformative artifici... |
f53354e6-f4f6-489c-bc36-3041260bdd51 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Feedback is important. It's true in Machine Learning, and it's true in writing. So when you write a cool new post on LW, you generally hope for feedback. Positive feedback, fingers crossed, but good negative feedback is also very nice for improving your writing chops and your ideas. Yet getting meaningful feedback can... |
5fb15456-6a97-407a-9fd2-14df66f8a725 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup - Dark Arts
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup - Dark Arts
WHEN: 19 December 2012 07:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064
When: 7:00pm Wednesday, December 19th.
Where: The Westside Tavern in the upstairs Wine Bar (all ages welcome), located insi... |
0ce006d1-b0fc-4cb0-922e-a66203950310 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EFF stops accepting Bitcoins
The EFF has stopped accepting Bitcoins primarily out of concern with the possible legal issues. I presume that the EFF has a better understanding of any possible legal risks than organizations like the SIAI. It seems that the SIAI should probably at least for now put a hold on accepting bi... |
168776aa-3b98-4f4e-8c2b-75267fc58e60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anthropics made easy?
,
tl;dr: many effective altruists and rationalists seem to have key misunderstandings of anthropic reasoning; but anthropic probability is actually easier than it seems.
True or false:
* The fact we survived the cold war is evidence that the cold war was less dangerous.
I'd recommend trying t... |
dd286f46-e778-41b0-b763-fc4a04f6b695 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What Would I Do? Self-prediction in Simple Algorithms
*(This talk was given at* [*a public online event on Sunday July 12th*](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-event-transcripts)*. Scott Garrabrant is responsible for the talk, Jacob Lagerros and Justis Mills edited the transcript.*
*If you're a curated author a... |
c35e5c63-a3e3-4453-a935-398ef598055b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can I take ducks home from the park?
Language models, whatever. Maybe they can write code or summarize text or regurgitate copyrighted stuff. But… can you take ducks home from the park? If you ask models how to do that, they often refuse to tell you. So I asked six different models in 16 different ways.
Baseline que... |
5d064638-8db3-4151-a661-cf936a98a72c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | AI Safety at EAGlobal2017 Conference
this weekend I went to Imperial College
London to attend the effective altruism
global conference the conference isn't
actually about AI it's about charity the
idea is like if you want to save human
lives and you've got a hundred pounds to
spend on that you have to make a
decision ... |
3a9490d7-e13d-4720-96c5-fdce6a538497 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to think about wearing masks / distancing within the household?
Folks who live with or have a pod that extends beyond your romantic partner: how do you think about wearing masks and distancing with other folks indoors? My understanding is that most people with a pod that goes beyond a romantic partner hang out wit... |
20440ced-0558-4cc4-9f51-2203efdf4a19 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Getting More Utilons Your True Acceptance??
Meta: Inspired by The Least Convenient Possible World I asked the person who most criticized my previous posts help on writing a new one, since that seemed very inconvenient, specially because the whole thing was already written. He agreed and suggested I begin by posting... |
36ae1752-1099-4347-9cc2-de9e797cb957 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Restraining Factors in AI Alignment Systems
I've been thinking about how the specification problem and reward hacking seem deeply intertwined, yet we often treat them as separate challenges.
The specification problem has to do with the fundamental gap between what we want and what we can formally describe. We strugg... |
df5491db-74e0-4de8-8186-405c5c0cd780 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Spatial attention as a “tell” for empathetic simulation?
(UPDATE Sept 2024: (1) I still think “local spatial attention” is a thing as described below. But I no longer think that it functions as a ‘tell’ for empathetic simulation, as in the headline claim. I have an alternate theory I like much better. Details coming i... |
6a36c66f-68ff-4ab9-8cb4-44d54b6b0fdc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | How likely is deceptive alignment?
*The following is an edited transcript of a talk I gave. I have given this talk at multiple places, including first at Anthropic and then for ELK winners and at Redwood Research, though the version that this document is based on is the version I gave to SERI MATS fellows. Thanks to J... |
75b7bf60-bdad-4ad7-8242-45ea17b38603 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Little Depth Goes a Long Way: the Expressive Power of Log-Depth Transformers
Authors: Anonymous (I'm not one of them).
Abstract:
> Most analysis of transformer expressivity treats the depth (number of layers) of a model as a fixed constant, and analyzes the kinds of problems such models can solve across inputs of ... |
56b870a3-2f97-4172-a629-9be10adaefbe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Amplification Discussion Notes
Paul Christiano, Wei Dai, Andreas Stuhlmüller and I had an online chat discussion recently, the transcript of the discussion is available here. (Disclaimer that it’s a nonstandard format and we weren't optimizing for ease of understanding the transcript). This discussion was primarily fo... |
8b552c29-560d-499c-897e-c12a5f609174 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Is Functional Decision Theory still an active area of research?
Looks like discussion of the issue died down in recent years, bit it strikes me as really important to have a good decision theory. So:
1. Are folks still actively working on this, and do you see it as a promising area?
2. It seems like the academic com... |
e507ad35-09ec-4d65-8a36-ae6c4f5ced87 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Adversarial Active Exploration for Inverse Dynamics Model Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Over the past decade, imitation learning (IL) has been successfully applied to a wide range of domains, including robot learning Englert et al. ([2013](#bib.bib9)); Schulman et al. ([2013](#bib.bib22)), autonomous navi... |
858ba95d-2105-43e1-b33f-88b6adc5b346 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introduction to Reducing Goodhart
(This work was supported by CEEALAR and LTFF. Thanks to James Flaville, Jason Green-Lowe, Michele Campolo, Justis Mills, Peter Barnett, and Steve Byrnes for conversations.)
I - Prologue
A few months ago, I wanted to write about AI designs that evade Goodhart's law. But as I wrote th... |
5484ddc1-c3d6-42fb-a6f7-5e797623e592 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Video lectures on the learning-theoretic agenda
This is a YouTube playlist of recorded lectures on the learning-theoretic AI alignment agenda (LTA) I gave for my MATS scholars of the Winter 2024 cohort, edited by my beloved spouse @Marcus Ogren. H/t William Brewer for helping with the recording, and the rest of the MA... |
d0126a5b-98a8-408d-846f-7d53e4575850 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Moderators, please wake up and start protecting this community!
We have a person systematically abusing the voting mechanisms of this website. Old users are annoyed. New users are driven away. There are whole threads created by people complaining about this abuse, but without moderator powers, there is nothing we can ... |
8e75bffc-5262-4234-bc7b-5ea72955dd11 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Values determined by "stopping" properties
,,,,,,,,,,
The lotus-eaters are examples of humans who have followed hedonism all the way through to its logical conclusion. In contrast, the "mindless outsourcers" are a possible consequence of the urge to efficiency: competitive pressures making uploads choose to destroy th... |
d45f86dd-a1fa-47ee-80c7-8b1755cc94d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rebuttals for ~all criticisms of AIXI
Written as part of the AIXI agent foundations sequence, underlying research supported by the LTFF.
Epistemic status: In order to construct a centralized defense of AIXI I have given some criticisms less consideration here than they merit. Many arguments will be (or already are) e... |
f76de753-11c4-4a55-b875-3078e469ae5b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | The underwriter and the models-solo dances or pas-de-deux? What policy data can tell us about how underwriters use models
msamlin.comThe underwriter and the models
- solo dances or pas-de-deux?
What policy data can tell us about
how underwriters use models
Stuart Armstrong, Mario Weick, Anders Sandberg,
Andrew Sn... |
8166c431-00a4-40ad-a34a-7d1a67dc1157 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does playing hard to get work? AB testing for romance
Motivation
I have long wondered if I would be more romantically successful if I played hard to get. In a majority of my relationships I pretend to be less interested in my (female) to increase their interest in me. Because I am unusually affectionate, excitable and... |
f8265c04-0ad7-4f8e-8722-197982494754 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Medium Is The Bandage
A man sets himself the task of portraying the world. Through the years he peoples a space with images of provinces, kingdoms, mountains, bays, ships, islands, fishes, rooms, instruments, stars, horses, and people. Shortly before his death, he discovers that that patient labyrinth of lines tra... |
7c311277-95dc-4025-849b-9d62583953b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When writing triggers memory reconsolidation
Last night I read the post Working With Monsters. My response? "Holy shit. This post is amazing and I needed to hear it."
The idea in the post is that you have to be able to work with people who you find morally abhorent. You can't just start a war every time someone belie... |
0f3da3bb-a356-44b5-8d40-c7485f5dfa9c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LLM chatbots have ~half of the kinds of "consciousness" that humans believe in. Humans should avoid going crazy about that.
Preceded by: "Consciousness as a conflationary alliance term for intrinsically valued internal experiences"
tl;dr: Chatbots are probably "conscious" in a variety of important ways. We humans sho... |
a8748140-a0dd-4f42-8d67-66c83b4e9ebf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "The Solomonoff Prior is Malign" is a special case of a simpler argument
[Warning: This post is probably only worth reading if you already have opinions on the Solomonoff induction being malign, or at least heard of the concept and want to understand it better.]
Introduction
I recently reread the classic argument fr... |
77e7388b-dd70-4176-8d48-a38b17cb2877 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Optimization
> "However many ways there may be of being alive, it is certain that there are vastly more ways of being dead."
> -- Richard Dawkins
In the coming days, I expect to be asked: "Ah, but what do you mean by 'intelligence'?" By way of untangling some of my dependency network for future posts, I her... |
f457c1de-6ba1-4daa-860a-3fc678fda254 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A concise sum-up of the basic argument for AI doom
1 - An artificial super-optimizer is likely to be developed soon.
2 - There is no known way of programming goals into an advanced optimizer, only outwardly observable behaviors of which we have no idea why they are being carried out or what motivates them.
3 - Most ... |
ce29e2e4-61d3-4167-9456-b9531ffdc19b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Security Mindset - Fire Alarms and Trigger Signatures
Series Overview and Goals
=========================
This is the second in a [series of articles](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ke2ogqSEhL2KCJCNx/security-mindset-lessons-from-20-years-of-software-security) about applying traditional security mindset to the probl... |
0fadb5ec-c393-4a6c-a1ea-a55280543afc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC measurement meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC measurement meetup
WHEN: 13 January 2013 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Washington DC
Instead of the courtyard, we will be meeting at someone's house: please PM me, maia or PhilipL, and we'll send you the address. If you're subsc... |
5b57accb-ef74-4ea7-a08f-dbbf3125293f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mentorship in AGI Safety (MAGIS) call for mentors
Tldr: If you are working on AI Safety and are willing to help someone to start their career in AI Safety by sharing your experience at 1:1 meetings consider applying as a mentor
In the last year, we’ve seen a surge of interest in AI safety. Many young professionals a... |
95b5b7f0-0e73-4e27-b7d7-fe6bd41ab097 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong |
Agency Volume of "A Map That Reflects the Territory" Set - My Personal Commentary
previously, in this series
Noticing the taste of Lotus
This has really lovely prose.
Friend said he resented the premise that life is more than just a series of lotuses to eat. the writing made it sound so easy not to fall into them,... |
a43ac6c1-7327-4e63-9e9d-11fc13796f46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: "Should" Considered Harmful
Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: "Should" Considered Harmful
WHEN: 22 June 2015 06:15:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 1061 Market St #4, San Francisco, CA 94103
We'll be meeting to discuss Nate Soares's recent blog posts:
"Should considered ha... |
a498d172-2cdb-411f-81e1-c03797837231 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Adverse Selection by Life-Saving Charities
GiveWell, and the EA community at large, often emphasize the "cost of saving a life" as a key metric, $5,000 being the most commonly cited approximation. At first glance, GiveWell might seem to be in the business of finding the cheapest lives that can be saved, and then savi... |
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