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such as described by Keynes when there is an increase in uncertainty.) If the central bank was targeting nominal income, they would respond by increasing the money supply to offset the fall in velocity such that nominal income remains at |
the target level. Sumner, however, likes to view this phenomenon through the lens of nominal income and expectations rather than through a monetary equilibrium framework (or at least that is my impression). Thus, in his mind, the nominal income target |
signals to economic agents that the Federal Reserve will do everything that it can to make sure that nominal income does not fall. If the Fed is credible on this point, then nominal income will not fall because people expect |
the Fed to follow through on this promise. I actually think that my view of monetary equilibrium is consistent with this view, but that Sumner simply has a different way of describing the policy. In any event, Sumner has recently |
expressed his concern with the productivity norm view because (as I understand it) he is concerned with nominal wage rigidity. Thus, the falling prices implied by the productivity norm might actually produce malign effects. He would prefer a broader idea |
of a nominal income target. He might be correct, but I do not share this concern about wage rigidity. The reason is because wage rigidity should only be a concern when prices are falling due to adverse aggregate demand shocks. |
Falling prices due to productivity advances should have no effect on the nominal wage. In fact, rising productivity should be consistent with higher real wages (in this case due to falling prices). In any event, one need not worry about |
this problem under the current circumstances because the decline in nominal income is the result of a severe adverse aggregate demand shock. I am inclined to think that nominal income targeting is certainly more desirable than the current regime. However, |
the ultimate question is whether or not the current situation could have been avoided under a nominal income targeting regime. Scott Sumner believes that we could have avoided the recession and simply experienced a burst of the housing bubble had |
we followed a nominal income target. I actually think that we might not have even had a housing bubble if we had a nominal income target (that allows for falling prices). In any event, the current situation has raised interesting |
questions about the state of monetary policy and monetary stability. Hopefully, we will also stumble upon some of the answers. * “Money is here called a medium and not, as customary, a unit of account because, clearly, money itself is |
The Farmers Alliance The populist movement first came into being in small communities far from any cities or centers of political or cultural activity. During the summer of 1890 farm families in the agrarian South and West gathered in their respective areas to discuss their problems. At these gatherings, agrarian famil... |
Alliance grew at an astounding speed. During the late 1800’s discontent among the agrarian population was becoming a worldwide issue. With the advent of advanced forms of transportation and communication the farmers were suddenly hurled into a far larger market that they no longer were in control of. Due to the increas... |
phenomenon affected other products as well and, although farmers were making less profit quantitatively, their actual purchasing power (or qualitative profit) was increasing. Farmers expressed grievances about the cost of shipping their goods, however during this period the price of shipping actually decreased. All of ... |
the services of the railroad to ship crops, and they had not been in need of as many manufactured goods to support their farms. All of this can be deceiving. While general economic trends were more positive than anything else, the situation of farming communities varied widely from location to location. In fact, no nat... |
a more pressing issue that lead to the ascension of the populist movement: Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, farmers were having the distinct feeling that their situation was becoming worse. It is said that reality is perception, and this is certainly true in any social science because people do not react ... |
farmers perceived doomsday. In the 1870’s and 80’s there was a growing social trend favoring cities and industry. Farmers’ children were leaving their homes and family businesses to make it big in the city. Literature was published during this time describing the drab and meaningless existence of farm life. During this... |
major organizations emerged, both calling themselves the Farmers’ Alliance: The Northwestern Alliance in Mississippi and the West, and the Southern Alliance (however, the geographical coverage of these two organizations is not highly clear-cut). The Southern Alliance was started in Texas in 1875 and began absorbing oth... |
South. The sharecropping system, crop-liens, and overworked land ranked at the top of their lists. The Northwestern Alliance was similar to the Southern alliance, but differed on policies of the Southern alliance such as secrecy, and segregated organizations for Blacks. In 1889 the Southern alliance took on the “Nation... |
formed its own political party due to a disapproval of both the Republican and Democratic parties. The first Peoples’ Party was formed in 1890. The party’s demands were for a federal farmers reserve (the sub-treasury) that would allow crops to be temporarily sold to the government, which would then hold them until the ... |
to the farmers. They also demanded, and much more within reason, the free coinage of both gold and silver, an abolition on tariffs, a federal income tax, the direct election of senators, and railroad regulation. During the elections of 1890 the fledgling people’s party gained thirty-eight supporters in congress. The su... |
be a bad market for their products. It would allow farmers to store their crops in government warehouses and then take out a government loan for up to 80% of the market price of said goods. The loan would come to term upon the sale of the crops, which could be held until ideal market conditions presented themselves. Th... |
that it is basically asking for government aid for farmers and therefore it was slightly harder to gain acceptance at the national level than it was to convince their neighbors that it was a good idea. The Federal Income Tax Why would a farmer who is struggling to keep their home ask for a new tax? Well, boys and girls... |
does the government make money? Collecting taxes. How did the government make their money at this time? Property taxes. Who had the most money? Factory owners and businessmen did. Who had the most land? Farmers. Who paid the most money? Farmers. Is this fair?. The Election of 1892 After the 1890 elections the populists... |
new People’s party was also known as the Populist Party. Up until this time the Populists had been participating with the Democratic Party to avoid splitting the white vote by forming a new party, and thus neutering the White’s Supremacy. The new party was formed because the Populists were not content with the false su... |
played off of the popularity of the populist movement, but rarely followed through on their campaign promises. The new Populist Party gained over one million votes in the election of 1892 and gained 22 electoral votes. Populist governors were installed in Kansas and North Dakota, and ten congressmen, five senators, and... |
successful election, but the Democrats, through coercion, fraud, and manipulation, suppressed the populists’ following during the election of 1892. Push for Equality There was one unintended side effect of the populist movement. In the South, where racism was most rampant, there were certain populist politicians who sa... |
Blacks and Whites served together on populist election committees, spoke from the same platforms, and even served on the same juries. It was unheard of for a black to be called for jury duty at this time. In 1892 a black populist was threatened with a lynching. Two thousand white populist farmers gathered in the area a... |
all night to get there. The populist sheared across race lines in many ways. Then there was The Panic of 1893. Primary Source: "America Past and Present" by Divine, and Lecture from Mr. Gruver's American History Class. |
A means of controlling a horse mostly used in western riding. For most of history, horses were controlled using the two reins independently to indicate which direction you wanted the horse to go. Of course, in the old west , this caused a problem becuase you might need a hand |
for say, shooting or roping . And you know, training your horse to repsond to leg pressure is just too much work I guess. Insert neck reining. So basically what you do is train the horse to respond to the pressure of the reins on the neck. The reigns are |
tied in a knot so it kinda forms a loop. To move the horse right, you move the reins to the right so that the left rein falls against his neck. When the horse feels the rein on the left side of his neck, he is trained to move away |
from it, hence he goes in the direction you want. And there you go, one handed control with very little pressure on the mouth being invovled. And now you know. |
On 26 June 2012 it is the International Day Against Drug Abuse and Illicit Trafficking. This important day was created by the United Nations General Assembly to help create a society free of illegal drugs and drug abuse. The date raises awareness of two important world issues -World Drug Day and theBlue Heart Campaign ... |
day is now in its 25th year and its pro-health campaign is stronger than ever. Each year the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) selects a theme for the day and this year it is Health. Events will be held all over the world, from Australia to Vietnam, to look at the effects of drugs in local communities |
and how we can stop them. From the dangerous effects of cannabis to the prevention of HIV/AIDS and needle sharing, there will be lots of information available to get educated and join the fight against drug abuse. |
Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, already keen interest in prayer has increased as part of the frenzied upsurge in religion in general. Topping The New York Times' bestseller list is a small book called The Prayer of Jabez, with "its message that lives can be profoundly changed by the power of prayer." Image... |
of masses of humanity kneeling in supplication, praying to some all-powerful deity. These images only increase the perception that prayer is a potent force in dealing with the world's problems that is endorsed by almost all of humanity. Many religious people want to cling to the ancient belief in the supernatural, incl... |
of modern science. They can't have it both ways. To study the natural world, scientists must have an implicit assumption that it operates only by natural, predictable processes, which cannot be affected arbitrarily by an all-powerful deity. One of the major ways that scientists provide proof of theories is through well... |
randomized, prospective, controlled, double-blind type. If such a study could be influenced by a personal god who responded to prayers to change the results, science would be in shambles. There would be no way ever to do a valid experiment since investigators couldn't be sure that someone, somewhere, hadn't uttered a s... |
In short, science by its very nature, rejects any influence of prayer on the physical world. Even though prayer is an irrational concept, could it nevertheless be tested scientifically? Francis Galton, the brilliant and eccentric cousin of Charles Darwin, thought so and gave the idea scientific legitimacy. Galton was t... |
of modern statistical analysis. He argued that regardless of how the prayers "may be supposed to operate," the efficacy of prayer . . . is a perfectly appropriate and legitimate subject of scientific inquiry" because it can be tested statistically. He then proceeded to set up such studies. In one statistical study, Gal... |
that clergy should be the longest lived of all since they were the most "prayerful class" of all and among the most prayed for. When Galton compared the longevity of eminent clergy with eminent doctors and lawyers, the clergy were the shortest lived of the three groups. In this study of the clergy, he cited a previous ... |
(Galton wasn't the first to think of analyzing prayer statistically but usually gets the credit) where Guy found prayer did not protect royalty, who were much prayed for, when compared to other members of the aristocracy. In analyzing the data on royalty, Galton concluded: "Sovereigns are literally the shortest lived o... |
for other statistical data. He examined the insurance rates for ships. He reasoned that ships carrying missionaries and pilgrims should have lower rates since frequent praying by the occupants should decrease the number of accidents. He found that the rates were the same; ships carrying missionaries and pilgrims sank j... |
studies on prayer, Rupert Sheldrake, a Cambridge-trained plant biologist, did one of his own, examining the effects of prayer in India. Most people there prefer having a son, and a tremendous amount of praying goes into the effort to produce one. Sheldrake examined statistics of live male births in India and used data ... |
preference for sons was less strong. He found that in both England and India there were 106 males to 100 females, just as in every other country. He stated, "if this enormous amount of psychic effort and praying of holy men were working, you would expect on average the percentage of live male births to be higher." Alth... |
studies from the nineteenth century strongly suggest that prayer is not effective, they do not meet the "gold standard" of a completely valid scientific study. The media regularly mention a large number of contemporary studies that supposedly scientifically validate the beneficial effects of prayer on human health. So ... |
that meet the "gold standard." Happily, the fact that there are only three studies considerably reduces the amount of information freethinkers need to acquire to refute frequent and erroneous claims. When we say that a finding in a scientific study is statistically significant, "significant" has a specific statistical ... |
which means the probability that it could be due to chance is 5 in 100. The main point to appreciate is that this figure, although reasonable, is strictly arbitrary. Therefore, the figure of (.05) is borderline significant, .04 (a probability of 4 in a 100 of being due to chance) is considered significant, and .06 (6 i... |
not significant. The figure (.05) is the one accepted for "ordinary" scientific studies. But what criterion should be applied in proving a supernatural finding? After all, as the old saw goes, extraordinary claims should require extraordinary proof, and this requirement should especially apply to claims of the supernat... |
dollars to anyone who can demonstrate any supernatural event under carefully controlled scientific conditions. The foundation has never had a single person who even got past the preliminary testing. Its members think that a study that would prove a claim of the supernatural should eliminate the possibility that the res... |
10,000,000, a far cry from 5 in 100. Robert Park, in his excellent book, Voodoo Science, observes that a characteristic of voodoo science is that there are always very small differences in studies, just barely detectable, and that can't be amplified in further investigations. These barely detectable positive results us... |
Let's examine in some detail the three studies on intercessory prayer that were large, prospective, randomized, double-blind ones--the only three that pass muster as valid scientific investigations of the effects of prayer on human health. Intercessory prayer (prayer at a distance) was chosen so that the placebo effect... |
on coronary care unit (CCU) patients. The first study was entitled "Positive Therapeutic Effects of Intercessory Prayer in a Coronary Care Unit Population" by Randolph Byrd, M.D., published in the Southern Medical Journal, July 1988. Dr. Byrd stated: "My study concerning prayer and patients in a general hospital corona... |
prayer to the Judeo-Christian God have any effect on the patient's medical condition and recovery while in the hospital? (2) How are these effects characterized, if present?" Over ten months, 393 patients admitted to the CCU at San Francisco General Hospital were randomized to an intercessory prayer group (192 patients... |
patient in the prayer group was assigned to three to seven intercessors, who were all "born-again Christians (according to the Gospel of John 3:3)" of various denominations. Dr. Byrd wrote: "The patients' first name, diagnosis, and general condition, along with pertinent updates on their condition, were given to the in... |
the patient was discharged from the hospital. Under the direction of a coordinator, each intercessor was asked to pray daily for a rapid recovery and for prevention of complications and death, in addition to other areas of prayer they believed to be beneficial to the patient." The results were summarized in "Table 2" o... |
intercessory Prayer." There was no statistically significant difference between the prayer and control group in these measurements: days in CCU after entry; days in hospital after entry; number of discharge medications. Only when a list of 26 "New Problems, Diagnoses, and Therapeutic Events After Entry" was compiled wa... |
congestive heart failure (.03); diuretics (.05); cardiopulmonary arrest (.02); pneumonia (.03); antibiotics (.005); intubation/ ventilation (.002). When Dr. Byrd subjected these items to multivariate analysis (a statistical method of analyzing the overall significance when multiple factors are positive), he found the p... |
Scoring the Postentry Hospital Course," he constructed three categories, "Good, Intermediate, and Bad," using a self-designed and previously not scientifically validated method. The prayer group bettered the control group at a level of (.01). Although this study appears to meet the "gold standard" of a large, prospecti... |
was not "blinded' in two respects: 1) Janet Greene, the coordinator of the study, on whom Dr. Byrd depended for the collection of data, knew exactly who was being prayed for, and interacted regularly with the patients in the study. 2) "Table 3" was formulated by Dr. Byrd at the request of editors who initially evaluate... |
"blinding" had been removed. There was no difference in clear-cut end points such as days in the CCU, days in the hospital, or mortality between the two groups. Only when complicated statistical analyses were done on a long list of items do any data emerge that favor the prayed-for group--hardly evidence of an all-powe... |
effect, an overall improvement would be expected. Of the six items where the prayer group did better, four were of borderline statistical significance and only two were clearly significant. Are we to conclude that the deity is only concerned with reducing antibiotic use and ventilating patients in the CCU? This study p... |
study. This information could be important since certain physicians use antibiotics and intubate patients much more readily than others. The method that Dr. Byrd used in his scoring in "Table 3" had not been validated by any previous studies. When Irwin Tessman, Ph.D., professor of biological sciences at Purdue Univers... |
review the raw data that went into the study, he was refused. Since Dr. Byrd's claim is one of the supernatural, it would seem appropriate that all aspects of the study be reviewed by independent investigators. The degree of obvious religiosity communicated by Dr. Byrd raises doubts that he could be completely objectiv... |
that he deeply believes is effective. Under "Acknowledgments" at the end of the paper, he writes: "I thank God for responding to the many prayers made on behalf of the patients." The second study that appears to meet the "gold standard" for scientific studies is "A Randomized, Controlled Trial of the Effects of Remote,... |
Admitted to the Coronary Care Unit" published in the October 25, 1999 edition of the Archives of Internal Medicine. The investigators were William S. Harris, Ph.D., plus eight others of the Mid America Heart Institute. The study was conducted at Saint Luke's Hospital, Kansas City, Missouri, a private, university-associ... |
replicate Byrd's findings by testing the hypothesis that patients who are unknowingly and remotely prayed for by blinded intercessors will experience fewer complications and have a shorter hospital stay than patients not receiving such prayer," admitted the investigators. The intercessors (five to pray for each patient... |
recovery with no complications" plus "anything else that seemed appropriate to them." 1013 patients were randomized, 484 to the prayer group and 529 to the usual care group. After removal of those patients who spent less than 24 hours in the CCU (prayer was not started until 24 hours after admission), 524 remained in t... |
in the prayer group (a high drop-out rate). A list of events after entry into the study was compiled, much like the one in the Byrd study, but with 34 events instead of the 26 in the Byrd Study. Again, a scheme was devised to evaluate the overall hospital course, a totally new and untested system, but different from th... |
also new and untested one devised by Byrd. The Harris study scheme was called the Mid America Heart Institute Cardiac Care Unit (MAHI-CCU) Scoring System, and its criteria are presented in "Table 1" of his paper. The only finding in the Harris study that indicated the prayer group outperformed the control group was in ... |
then only at a probability level of (.04), a figure very close to the cut-off level of (.05). The Harris study is a much better study than the Byrd study because the number of patients is larger, it appears to be completely blinded, and the degree of religiosity of the investigators appears to be lower (although Dr. Ha... |
the idea of "intelligent design"). Nevertheless, scientific investigators have noted flaws: 1) As already noted, the MAHI-CCU Scoring System has never been previously scientifically validated. Without such validation, any result produced by it is subject to question. 2) The much higher dropout rate in the first 24 hour... |
The statistical probability that this finding would appear by chance is (.001), or 1 chance in a 1000, a statistically very significant finding. This higher dropout rate, since the mortality rate in the two groups was the same, suggests that the prayer group, for unknown reasons, was not quite as ill as the control gro... |
day often turn out not to have serious problems. If they were a little less ill at the start, we would expect them to have a more favorable course. 3) The conclusions stated in this investigation, as I'll describe shortly, are not justified by the data. Positive findings in a scientific study are not considered valid u... |
investigators. So did the Harris study replicate the positive findings of the Byrd study? The answer is a resounding no! Of the 6 items in the list of 26 items previously described in the Byrd study where the prayed-for group did better, not one was statistically significant in the Harris study. When the Harris study s... |
same scheme that Byrd had used in his evaluation of the hospital course of the patients (Table 3 in the Byrd study), the Harris study found the difference between the two groups of (.29) was not even close to being statistically significant. The Harris study did replicate the negative findings from the Byrd Study. Ther... |
days in the CCU, days in the hospital, or mortality. In remarks at the end of the Harris study, the investigators stated: "Our findings support Byrd's conclusions despite the fact that we could not document an effect of prayer using his scoring system." This statement is erroneous. Not only do these findings not suppor... |
The most recent study and, I believe, the best designed one, was published in the Mayo Clinic Proceedings in December 2001, entitled "Intercessory Prayer and Cardiovascular Disease Progression in a Coronary Care Unit Population: A Randomized Controlled Trial." This third "gold standard" study should settle the matter o... |
six others. This trial was done on patients immediately after discharge from the Coronary Care Unit, a time when the intensity of extraneous intercessory praying by family and friends would generally be waning. Here is their summary of the findings: "Patients and Methods: In this randomized, controlled trial conducted ... |
patients were randomized at hospital discharge to the intercessory prayer group or to the control group. . . . The primary end point after 26 weeks was any of the following: death, cardiac arrest, rehospitalization for cardiovascular disease, coronary revascularization, or an emergency department visit for cardiovascul... |
of 5 risk factors (age > or = 70 years, diabetes mellitus, prior myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease, or peripheral vascular disease) or a low-risk group (absence of risk factors) for subsequent primary events." The investigators summarized their findings as follows: "Conclusions: As delivered in this study,... |
care unit." Not even one difference showed up between the control group and the prayed-for group. The statistical studies from the nineteenth century, and the three CCU studies on prayer are quite consistent with the fact that humanity is wasting a huge amount of time on a procedure that simply doesn't work. Nonetheles... |
deeply rooted, you can be sure believers will continue to devise future studies in a desperate effort to confirm their beliefs. Now that you have the scientific information, don't let the statement that the efficacy of prayer has been proven by scientific studies go unchallenged. It's simply untrue. James W. Williamson... |
Many people are confused about the concepts in DBus. This page gives an analogy to the web which should help to explain things. - unique bus name - well-known bus name - object path - method name - in parameters - out parameters Web Server Analogy - unique bus name is like an IP address. In particular it is dynamic. - ... |
is like a hostname. It can be held by different programs at different times, but they should all implement the same API - object path is like the path on the server - interface/method name is like GET or POST - in parameters are like like GET/POST variables - out parameters are like the page which is returned. Object-O... |
path refers to an object, such as a java.lang.Object - an interface is exactly like a Java interface - in parameters are method arguments - out parameters are method return values - unique bus name identifies the running process or application uniquely (these bus names are never re-used by a different process) - well-k... |
Most Americans believe that the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress on July 4, 1776 began American independence. While this date announced the formal break between the American colonists and the “mother country,” it did not guarantee independence. Not all Americans favored independence and most hist... |
number of Loyalist, or Tory, Americans near one-third of the population. Winning independence required an eight-year war that began in April, 1775 and ended with a peace treaty finalized on September 3, 1783. Unfortunately the infant nation found itself born in a world dominated by a superpower struggle between England |
and France. The more powerful European nations viewed the vulnerable United States, correctly, as weak and ripe for exploitation. Tragically, few Americans know of this period of crisis in our nation’s history because of the irresponsible neglect of the American education system. American independence marked the end of... |
in American history and the beginning of another. As with all historical events this declaration continued the endless cycle of action and reaction, because nothing occurs in a vacuum. Tragically, most Americans’ historical perspective begins with their birth, rendering everything that previously occurred irrelevant. F... |
subjects and do not place them in the proper historical context. Since most Americans only remember the United States as a superpower they do not know of our previous struggles. Unfortunately our agenda driven education system also ignores this period and often portrays America in the most negative light. Without |
delving too deeply into the deteriorating relations between the American colonists and their “mother country,” declaring independence came slowly. None of the thirteen colonies trusted the other colonies and rarely acted in concert, even during times of crisis. Regional and cultural differences between New England, mid... |
deeply divided the colonists. Even in these early days of America slavery proved a dividing issue, although few believed in racial equality. The “umbilical cord” with England provided the only unifying constant that bound them together culturally and politically. The colonies further possessed different forms of govern... |
they steadfastly expressed their liberties and “rights as Englishmen.” Some colonies existed as royal colonies, where the English monarch selected the governor. Proprietary colonies formed when merchant companies or individuals, called proprietors, received a royal grant and appointed the governor. Charter colonies rec... |
individuals or merchants receiving royal charters and shareholders selected the governor. Each colony elected its own legislature and local communities made their laws mostly based on English common law. Any form of national, or “continental,” unity remained an illusion largely in the minds of the delegates of the Firs... |
Congress. The Second Continental Congress convened on May 10, 1775 because England ignored the grievances submitted by the First Continental Congress. Furthermore, open warfare erupted in Massachusetts between British troops and the colonial militia at Lexington and Concord on April 19, 1775. Known today as Patriot’s D... |
of Massachusetts celebrate it, or even know of it. Setting forth their reasons for taking up arms against England, they established the Continental Army on June 14, 1775. For attempting a united front, they appointed George Washington, a Virginian, as commander-in-chief. On July 10, 1775, the Congress sent Parliament o... |
last appeal for resolving their differences, which proved futile. While Congress determined the political future of the colonies fighting continued around Boston, beginning with the bloody battle on Breed’s Hill on June 17, 1775. Known as the Battle of Bunker Hill in our history the British victory cost over 1,000 |
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