Source stringclasses 1
value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
|---|---|---|---|
fomc | 1,980 | Well, it's a pretty fine judgment when you get down to 1/2 percentage point differences. But I would suggest to both sides that under my interpretation of this the degree of resistance to either end of the range is somewhat affected by what does happen to interest rates, which I don't think we know. That is where the c... | 126 |
fomc | 1,980 | Chairman Volcker Yes President Balles Yes President Black Yes Governor Coldwell Yes President Kimbrel Yes President Mayo Yes Governor Partee Yes Governor Rice Yes Governor Schultz Yes Governor Teeters Yes First Vice President Timlen Yes Governor Wallich Yes Unanimous, Mr. Chairman. | 56 |
fomc | 1,980 | There were a couple of other things I wanted to mention, which I'm not sure I remember now. | 20 |
fomc | 1,980 | Don't mess it up! | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | No, not on [the policy decision]. I just want to remind you again that both the discount window procedures and lagged reserve accounting are relevant to what we are doing, and if we are really going to stay on this technique, they urgently need examination. We are not talking about any easy change in either of those, i... | 231 |
fomc | 1,980 | They have been read and reviewed by the staff and the international parts have been reviewed also by staff at the New York Bank. The Treasury has been consulted on it as well, all in accordance with past procedures. | 42 |
fomc | 1,980 | Do we need a vote on this? | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,980 | I would like to say that it has been checked out very carefully. My own feeling, if I were one of the foreign central banks, is that I'd rather not have that much reported about what my representative said at particular meetings. But it has all been correctly checked out, as in the past, and there seems to be no uneasi... | 70 |
fomc | 1,980 | The one thing proposed for deletion is the Bank of England's attitude toward support for the institutions operating in London. I would have assumed that would be public knowledge by now. | 34 |
fomc | 1,980 | You would rather have even more--? | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | I'm really asking another question, Henry. There is something in a memo of yours, apparently, that is going to be deleted. | 26 |
fomc | 1,980 | As a matter of procedure, these are checked with the foreign central banks, aren't they? | 18 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,980 | And they requested that this be deleted? | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | We volunteered to delete it in this case. | 9 |
fomc | 1,980 | And they are happier. | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | To answer Chuck's question: When this lender of last resort issue was being discussed 5 years ago there were some items, especially with regard to consortia banks, that were left fuzzy. Governor Wallich's notes are more explicit on the fuzzy part but because of the fuzziness there may be some disagreement. [It conveys ... | 111 |
fomc | 1,980 | My only question, Ted, was that I thought it was He happened to be representing the Bank. But if it is more explicit than even current public understandings, then there is a basis for excluding it, yes. | 44 |
fomc | 1,980 | We need a motion on this. | 7 |
fomc | 1,980 | So move it. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | Seconded. | 3 |
fomc | 1,980 | Without objection, that shall be released. The next meeting is February 5. I would assume that the discussion on the long-range targets, having had [this preliminary] discussion today, can go reasonably expeditiously. And on that basis I assume we can do it all in the morning. We do have the lagged reserve accounting q... | 139 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, in view of yesterday afternoon's discussion, the basic GNP forecast would probably assume an M-1A growth rate of something under 6 percent. The staff in its wisdom will have to decide on somewhere around 5 to 5-1/2 percent to be consistent with that discussion. In any event, we would have some alternative... | 75 |
fomc | 1,980 | We have a problem. You remind me. I don't know whether it's particularly useful right now, but a precedent was created. Perhaps it's a precedent; we could make it a precedent anyway. The last time--was it earlier in the year or at the midyear meeting--? | 56 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mid-July. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | At the July 1979 meeting a forecast was given by the Board of Governors in the testimony. It was the Board of Governors [forecast] of GNP for 1979 and 1980, too. | 43 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, if you read the Humphrey-Hawkins Act, that's what it seems to require. | 20 |
fomc | 1,980 | I don't think it technically requires that. | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | It says the Board's view of the relationship to or the consistency of the Open Market's Committee decision with the outlook for the economy. | 27 |
fomc | 1,980 | Consistency with the outlook of the Administration? Is that it? | 12 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,980 | I know it's going to be hard to back up on it because it was very well received by the Committees. Very little attention was paid to it, though. | 33 |
fomc | 1,980 | It raises a bit of a question in my mind on whether it is worthwhile polling the Committee on what their economic outlook is. We went through that exercise once or twice with Mr. Miller. Do people want to be polled on what their economic look is? Is it a useful exercise? | 58 |
fomc | 1,980 | The law requires that the Board-- | 7 |
fomc | 1,980 | I know. That particular [requirement] is for the Board, but I have no strong feeling one way or another on that. | 27 |
fomc | 1,980 | We'll be working off the staff projection at that time and I think an indication of agreement or disagreement or points of agreement or disagreement might be helpful. | 29 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, I might ask you for that next time, but I don't know. | 16 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, did I understand that if we have staff papers on one or more of these studies that you anticipate those being discussed in the morning meeting rather than at an afternoon meeting? | 37 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, we also have a request from a member of the Committee. Willis Winn sent me a letter raising all sorts of interesting questions on the international scene--I don't know whether that letter was distributed other than to the Board members--and suggested that it might be a good idea to have a general discussion of th... | 166 |
fomc | 1,980 | I think it would be a good idea. | 9 |
fomc | 1,980 | There's no great resistance to coming in the day before, if I read you right. | 17 |
fomc | 1,980 | Could we start earlier in the day--everybody was here [yesterday] by noon--and end earlier? | 23 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, I'm not sure that we will do it, but let me keep that option open if we have some of these other [issues] to discuss. I don't think it would have to be a meeting, for what difference that makes, but it might be worthwhile having an early afternoon discussion session. So, let me review that. | 67 |
fomc | 1,980 | In spite of remaining flexible, the earlier we can get notification the more helpful it would be. Getting travel reservations is a real problem. | 27 |
fomc | 1,980 | Okay, thank you. I think we are finished. | 12 |
fomc | 1,980 | I will call the non-meeting to order. We are not in a meeting at this point anyway; we may be in a meeting later. I would just remind all of you that I sent out a memorandum on the idea of possibly changing the [FOMC] meeting dates. It probably would amount to having fewer meetings on the theory that with the current o... | 331 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, there is some magic in it. I looked at your [proposed] schedule and I thought that we probably should meet at the very end of the quarter to plan for the next quarter. Then I realized that we have constraints on two [meeting dates]. One is because of the budget and the [President's] economic report [and] the Hump... | 147 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, I had nothing invested in any of the particular dates or when we would change, if we change. But I do have the feeling that every four weeks is a little frequent if we are operating in this particular mode. I wouldn't feel that way if we were operating more on money market oriented criteria. | 61 |
fomc | 1,980 | Could [we meet] on the original dates in those months instead of moving--? | 17 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, it's a little hard. But look at the dates carefully. As I say, I had nothing invested in the particular dates that were put on that proposal, particularly when we get near [the usual] dates, if there are problems in changing them. For instance, for that proposed April 1, which looks logical except for April Fool'... | 136 |
fomc | 1,980 | Is there supposed to be a response? | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | No, you can wait until later; it can wait until after the meeting tomorrow. I just wanted to remind you to have it in mind so that if you have any strong feelings they could be adequately verbalized tomorrow. The first thing on our agenda today is lagged reserve accounting. Mr. Axilrod. | 63 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, lagged reserve accounting, as the Presidents and Board Members know, has been a subject of considerable contention in the System since it was adopted in 1968. | 36 |
fomc | 1,980 | We're going to get an issue pretty soon for which we just can't pull out the old memoranda. | 20 |
fomc | 1,980 | That's what I was getting to. There has been considerable contention since 1968 when it was adopted. And I must say from an internal perspective there was contention between 1966 and 1968, when it was being studied for adoption under a rather different institutional environment and different operating procedures than w... | 487 |
fomc | 1,980 | From Mr. Who's research? | 7 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Lindsey, on my right. So I would say that while doing away with lagged reserve requirements is not going to solve all our problems in hitting the aggregates, it at least looks like a step in the right direction. In view of this cogent staff analysis, one might be curious as to the reason no action has been taken to... | 265 |
fomc | 1,980 | When was that? | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | That was in 1976. | 7 |
fomc | 1,980 | That was before the good days! | 7 |
fomc | 1,980 | That sort of follows the pattern for most everything, doesn't it? | 13 |
fomc | 1,980 | The staff has no other way of assessing lagged reserve requirements as a membership benefit. One's instinct would be that it is minor relative to the real burden, which is the reserve requirement itself. In sum, Mr. Chairman, the staff does believe that it is probably appropriate now to move toward contemporaneous rese... | 291 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, you have not left a lot of doubt as to where you stand, Mr. Axilrod. Is there any dissenting opinion among the staff on the importance of this matter? | 38 |
fomc | 1,980 | I might say that, if anything, my views are more extreme than Steve's. | 17 |
fomc | 1,980 | In the articles and academic papers and so forth that have been written on this subject, do they bring anything to light or make any argument that you have not made? | 33 |
fomc | 1,980 | No, in preparing these memoranda for the Board, we thoroughly reviewed the literature starting from the early '70s on. My own view, which isn't particularly humble, is that the quality of the analysis presented here is much superior to the academic work. | 51 |
fomc | 1,980 | We would expect that! Well, it's just that the conclusion comes through a little more strongly than I read it in that memorandum itself. I had a feeling that you saw some disadvantages in the degree of certainty with which the Desk was operating. Maybe Mr. Sternlight would like to comment. | 58 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes, I'd like to add a word or two. I feel much less convinced than Mr. Axilrod that there would be significant benefits from a switch to contemporaneous accounting. I can see the theoretical case that he makes. I'd be among those who feel that in the longer run even that theoretical case makes very little, if any, dif... | 232 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Holmes, you were there before and after. Do you have any comments? | 17 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes, Mr. Chairman. I can recall back in the great debate over whether we should have lagged reserve accounting, all sorts of claims were made that it was going to help the Desk tremendously and that the Wednesday [settlement date] would be a stable day in the funds market. We at the Desk never believed that. But, if it... | 171 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, we're not going to make a decision this afternoon, but anybody who would like to comment on this subject should comment. | 25 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, I have long felt that if we're going to have a reserve operating base, sooner or later we are going to have to move to contemporaneous reserves. As one example, let's say that later on this year we get into a period where the money supply is not growing or is contracting. That would mean that in order to ... | 309 |
fomc | 1,980 | How big a job is this for us internally as opposed to for a bank? | 16 |
fomc | 1,980 | Depending on the alternative--the memo had three alternatives--some of our people said four to six months for programming. | 23 |
fomc | 1,980 | I am assuming going all the way to what is called contemporaneous reserves, which isn't quite contemporaneous; it's a one-day lag. | 27 |
fomc | 1,980 | I was told it would take us 90 days to implement it. | 14 |
fomc | 1,980 | Boy! | 2 |
fomc | 1,980 | I'd strongly support what Frank has said. On the substance of the argument, I certainly join Steve; that's exactly where I come out. Like Frank, I would also stress that it would be very risky in my opinion even to raise this outside the Fed until we get a membership bill passed because there will be some adverse membe... | 150 |
fomc | 1,980 | You say it will take a long time because they will-- | 12 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, both for the banks and for us for the reason that Frank said. Our data processing people within the Reserve Banks have been knocked flat by the tremendous number of changes in the current reporting series, by the cranking up of IBA, and by the marginal reserve requirements. We have the possibility of a membership... | 201 |
fomc | 1,980 | I appreciate your caution about raising [this issue], but I did this morning. | 16 |
fomc | 1,980 | Oh, you did? Now he tells me! | 10 |
fomc | 1,980 | I think your caution is well taken and I did it with some hesitancy. Mr. Mayo. | 21 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, most of my speech has already been given. But I would say of the three alternatives Steve presented, I certainly would agree with the staff, or the reserve requirements policy group, that a return to contemporaneous reserve accounting would be the preferred solution. I think it is better than lagged reserves. But... | 457 |
fomc | 1,980 | Have you looked at those, Mr. Axilrod? | 12 |
fomc | 1,980 | We have in the past looked at those and several other gimmicks that have been advanced. | 18 |
fomc | 1,980 | And he will now deliver an unbiased opinion! | 9 |
fomc | 1,980 | We'll be glad to consider them further. | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | There are good gimmicks and bad gimmicks. We deal only in good gimmicks. | 18 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Baughman. | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, like Bob, my speech has been pretty well given. I'll start with a conclusion: I think it would be a mistake to make a change right now. There are several reasons. In addition to the ones that have been given, I think the magnitude of the problem has not been demonstrated to be great enough to justify the ... | 517 |
fomc | 1,980 | We have studies of that also, President Baughman. We will be glad to-- | 18 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, I don't know whether [those in] the profession-- | 13 |
fomc | 1,980 | These are professional gimmicks! | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | On the willingness to let that [academic] feud quiet down: Was it a matter of your persuading them or simply that they felt we turned off our hearing aids? | 34 |
fomc | 1,980 | As far as Professor Friedman is concerned, I think it was the latter. He was the chief proponent of it. | 24 |
fomc | 1,980 | It seems to me that we should anticipate that that will likely surface again. So, my view, Mr. Chairman, is that we should not change at the present time. I agree with the conclusion that our present mode of operation would work a little better if we were on a concurrent basis. But I think the cost of going there would... | 72 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Roos. | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | Just to set the record straight, I have a change of position since the advent of the age of enlightenment in St. Louis. We're strongly in support of contemporaneous reserve accounting. I would subscribe to John Balles' concern about moving before the operational changes have been considered and made and [so forth]. In ... | 111 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.