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value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
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fomc | 1,980 | Yes, in June of 1976. | 9 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Black. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, in deciding whether lagged reserves are good or bad for policy, I think we have to decide whether the likely errors in hitting the money supply stem from a lack of responsiveness to changes in the volume of reserves or whether they stem from unexpected changes in the appetite of the market for money of th... | 1,278 |
fomc | 1,980 | Governor Wallich. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, those were very thoughtful observations by Bob Black. I just would like to make two points on those before I briefly say what I meant to. I am not sure that we'll satisfy the monetarists by this change. I think their reasoning is that they want to minimize Desk operations. They believe that with contemporaneous a... | 817 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Winn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, I have the feeling that the honeymoon of our experiment is about over. Consequently, I get a little more itchy to fiddle with the machinery rather than to let it stand. I am convinced that the acceptance of the Federal Reserve making this [procedure] work is going to be more important than for membership and a wh... | 353 |
fomc | 1,980 | We have often expected that when the System tightens, there will be an increase in managed liabilities that holds down demand deposits. For example, there would be an increase in issuance of CDs and RPs and all that. That didn't turn out to be true in the fourth quarter when there seemed to be a sharp reduction in bank... | 117 |
fomc | 1,980 | Why do you think we are running out of honeymoon time or however you expressed it, Willis? | 19 |
fomc | 1,980 | Paul, I hear more doubts being raised in more areas than I ever thought possible. Their suspicion is that we are [not] on a money target [unintelligible] very much a funds target. | 42 |
fomc | 1,980 | We don't see it in the money supply figures. | 10 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, we are confusing it by all these different money supply figures we are surfacing. | 18 |
fomc | 1,980 | We haven't done that yet. | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | And they don't know-- | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | People are looking, Paul, at the reserve base until we get-- | 14 |
fomc | 1,980 | I don't know how far the ingenuity of our staff goes, but we will get off bounds on one definition. We changed the definition in the seasonal adjustment factor--fixed it up perfectly, I would say. | 41 |
fomc | 1,980 | If we shift from lagged reserve accounting to contemporaneous and confuse that issue-- | 16 |
fomc | 1,980 | Governor Partee. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, I speak somewhat tentatively on this subject which I have observed raging around here for many years. It is somewhat religious in character. By the way, St Louis, I think has always been on the side of the angels, Larry! They might have had a little falling off or-- | 59 |
fomc | 1,980 | Steve tells me we were the only people-- | 9 |
fomc | 1,980 | I would say you were always in favor of contemporaneous accounting and I would say that Bob Black has always been against it because he saw the public relations cost or the bank relations cost. The latter was a major factor involved, I thought, in the Board's accepting the lagged way in the first place. I am impressed ... | 559 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Timlen. | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, I have heard at least six economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York opine on the matter of reverting to contemporaneous reserves. Not one of them thinks there is any major advantage in such a change, so I will be disposed to follow that professional judgment in my Bank. I must say that John Balle... | 248 |
fomc | 1,980 | Governor Rice. | 3 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, I also tread tentatively in an area like this. In general, I am persuaded by Mr. Axilrod's theoretical arguments that contemporaneous reserve accounting has advantages in the short run when applied to a reserve targeting approach to monetary control. Mostly though, I am impressed by what Mr. Sternlight an... | 192 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, Governor Rice, Irv has a much more complicated mind, I think, than I do. Also, the evidence with regard to bank response has been developed over a number of years when the System has been running a different kind of policy that is very accommodative to bank needs. If at today's interest rates the bank needed rese... | 395 |
fomc | 1,980 | It depends in considerable part upon what we do with the discount window issue. | 15 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes. I am sure, even if we leave the window open and don't close it, total reserves leaves you the possibility of chasing it. You may not ever catch it, but it leaves you the possibility of chasing it. | 45 |
fomc | 1,980 | Governor Coldwell. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | I have only two comments, Mr. Chairman. First, I would agree with the Account Manager that this is likely to have [only] minor advantages. But secondly, I would caution the Committee that this is another interruption in the overall picture of [the policy] the Committee is trying to follow. If we add that on top of our ... | 114 |
fomc | 1,980 | I can't contemplate that possibility. President Willes. | 10 |
fomc | 1,980 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I found Henry's comments and Chuck's comments particularly useful. So I would like to [be recorded as agreeing with] whatever you wrote down for them. I would add one thought, which goes back to the comment that Bob Mayo made. I am not much for gimmicks, either. But if there's a bank relations ... | 276 |
fomc | 1,980 | I guess everybody has talked who wants to talk. Is there anybody else who urgently wants to talk? Mr. Kimbrel. When I put the adverb in front of it, you're in trouble! | 41 |
fomc | 1,980 | I have a personal bias toward contemporaneous reserves. And if we were operating so that we could accomplish it, I would certainly opt for that. But I suppose our real thrust [should be] Desk efficiency in discharging our directives, and those at the Desk don't seem to be too enthusiastic about contemporaneous reserves... | 115 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, those cautions seem to be rather unanimously felt. I must say the other side of it is--I don't know how important it is substantively--that when we work with a two-week lag in the context of what we're trying to do now, one has a great sense of artificiality. We are working to affect a reserve figure that we alwa... | 140 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, we can. It depends how promptly the Board would want to take this up. But Mr. Lindsey has already done considerable work in that area, so we would be in a position to develop something. | 42 |
fomc | 1,980 | You are in a position to talk pretty quickly about that. I don't know where we'll come out, but-- | 22 |
fomc | 1,980 | Paul, if we are going to be doing additional studies on this, I have always been very taken by the notion of doing away with Saturday and Sunday, which is another gimmick. | 37 |
fomc | 1,980 | That's coming up anyway, isn't it? | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | You mean for Federal Reserve purposes only? | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes, excuse me, for Federal Reserve purposes only, because of all the inefficiency of flows back and forth. | 23 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, the relevance of that comment is that one thing leads to another. And there is this question of whether to make a whole bunch of changes at one time or to keep making changes, as I think we have been doing, that upset people. | 50 |
fomc | 1,980 | A memo on that very subject, on the effect of a move from 7 to 5 days, has been prepared for the Board. We didn't want to send it forward right at this time because of the confusion with the memo prepared for this meeting, but we do have a staff recommendation on that. | 61 |
fomc | 1,980 | At the very least, obviously, there are a lot of arguments to delay for a while. I think we ought to get all these things on the table; maybe we won't want to delay them all. We can look at the membership issue in a month or two and see where that stands, but we ought to have at least a preliminary feeling of how we wo... | 149 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, I would just like to add one footnote to this. From my perspective, it is not merely theoretical desirability and practical difficulty but, as you commented, the artificiality of playing with these numbers. That is driven home to me almost every week, so I feel some practical impact of that. | 64 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, we're going to have a presentation on the international scene. I think a variety of questions have arisen on this which may or may not be of any immediate relevance to what we [do]. MESSRS. TRUMAN, SHAFER, and HENRY. [Statements--see Appendix.] | 62 |
fomc | 1,980 | Let's proceed to a formal meeting and hear from Mr. Pardee about the international [scene] in the last month now that we've heard about it for the next two years. | 35 |
fomc | 1,980 | Every time somebody mentions the international value of the dollar, I don't know where I am. I feel like the zoo keeper who is worrying about lions and tigers and bears and is told that the animal kingdom is improving or not improving during the course of the day. I am working in a different world than the one we've ju... | 88 |
fomc | 1,980 | Any questions for the zoo keeper? | 7 |
fomc | 1,980 | I move slowly now so I didn't really capture what you said in that very last statement. If the Bundesbank sells dollars and takes in marks presumably, you say we may share in those marks. What are you telling us? | 45 |
fomc | 1,980 | We have a bit of a dilemma. It would be rather nice to see the dollar rise at this stage, after all the pressures that the dollar has been under for these many months. And on that basis, it's awkward for us to see the Bundesbank go into the exchange market and sell dollars and thereby keep the dollar from rising as it ... | 186 |
fomc | 1,980 | Are you telling us that the procedure has a possibility of lightening our mark debt? | 17 |
fomc | 1,980 | When the Germans sell dollars and buy marks, they give some of them to us sometimes. | 18 |
fomc | 1,980 | That's right. | 3 |
fomc | 1,980 | They give them to us? | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | They sell them to us. | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | For dollars? How do they get an advantage out of that? | 13 |
fomc | 1,980 | Because we're repaying the swap. | 7 |
fomc | 1,980 | Are you projecting a reduction in our mark debt? | 10 |
fomc | 1,980 | I am if the dollar remains where it is [or] continues to rise. There is still a rather substantial calendar of mark-denominated issues coming into the international markets, which will be converted at the Bundesbank. And this rediversification--there's no term for it and the politics only goes one way--this flow of fun... | 143 |
fomc | 1,980 | Our decision as to whether to use any marks we acquire for the purpose of repaying debt will hinge not on the fact that we've got some marks but rather on what is happening in the exchange rates? | 40 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, there is a certain urgency as far as our repayment of debt is concerned. And whenever the dollar is strong enough to take it, we open doors and windows. We have not gone into the exchange market as an open buyer of marks. That's one point I was making in my [report]. But to the extent that someone comes along and... | 85 |
fomc | 1,980 | Why is there a certain urgency of repayment? Are those bonds coming due? | 15 |
fomc | 1,980 | We've had swap drawings outstanding since last June and we're going into the second renewal on a number of these. | 21 |
fomc | 1,980 | You have a recommendation to make in that connection? | 10 |
fomc | 1,980 | I don't have the numbers, but between now and the end of February we have a rather substantial list of swap drawings, totalling about $1.8 billion, coming up for second renewal. | 39 |
fomc | 1,980 | We have to ratify the transactions since the last meeting. Do we have a motion to that effect? Without objection they are so ratified. And you are asking for permission to renew $1.8 billion of swap debt maturing between now and the next meeting? | 54 |
fomc | 1,980 | By the end of February. | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | When are we going to meet next--March? | 10 |
fomc | 1,980 | Not until March 28th. | 7 |
fomc | 1,980 | The drawing has been outstanding for six months, Scott? | 11 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,980 | This goes beyond any feasible next meeting date I am sure. Do I have a motion? I do and I have an enthusiastic second. Have we any objections? If not, are there any other questions or comments on this? | 45 |
fomc | 1,980 | Your pressure for urgency of repayment is merely the annual date coming up? | 14 |
fomc | 1,980 | It's not merely the annual date; I think I have a responsibility to the Committee to keep these things short term. | 23 |
fomc | 1,980 | He always feels under pressure. I don't know-- | 10 |
fomc | 1,980 | I understand that, but I thought you were conveying a sense of real urgency and that maybe we ought to take further steps than what we're now taking. | 30 |
fomc | 1,980 | Oh, no, I am not trying to go in that direction, as far as the policy is concerned. But in terms of my own responsibilities I feel that I have an urgency to clear this up. Now, there is a tradeoff--we have to choose--because we're covering this debt at a rather substantial loss to the Federal Reserve. And if we waited ... | 150 |
fomc | 1,980 | I was just testing the degree of urgency you're putting on this. | 13 |
fomc | 1,980 | Only his normal pressure. | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | Nothing as drastic as going into the market and buying some D-marks. | 15 |
fomc | 1,980 | And nothing as drastic as the Bundesbank telling you that we have to get out [of debt]. | 20 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, we're having daily conversations with them on their pace of selling. | 14 |
fomc | 1,980 | I forgot to ask for approval of the minutes of the last meeting. Without objection, they are approved. How long is your presentation, Mr. Kichline? | 33 |
fomc | 1,980 | Probably about 20 minutes. | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | But then the questions will take it beyond that. | 10 |
fomc | 1,980 | We don't have time for questions. There is no ground swell for wanting to hear that presentation tonight. In that case, maybe we'll dispose of Mr. Sternlight. He's always very [brief]. | 39 |
fomc | 1,980 | I don't think I'll take that long, Mr. Chairman. Shall I go ahead? | 17 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,980 | [Statement--see Appendix.] | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | Before I forget, maybe we can go ahead and ratify your transactions. Without objection they are ratified. I think we'll do no more than hear whatever comments or questions you have to Mr. Sternlight. | 42 |
fomc | 1,980 | Could you expand a little on what you perceive as market expectations about future inflation? I see that Treasury bill futures, for instance, have changed by a very substantial amount, something close to 100 basis points over a month or so. | 47 |
fomc | 1,980 | I hadn't focused on a particular quantity, Governor Wallich. It's just that "expectations of inflation" seems to be the most commonly cited factor for this very marked rise in the longer end of the market, with the longer bonds up about 100 basis points over the past month. And there is the budget message; even though ... | 117 |
fomc | 1,980 | You mentioned that some people thought the new money supply figures would look higher. Why should they have that idea? | 22 |
fomc | 1,980 | I suppose just fear of the unknown, really. We're coming out with something new, and it's partly that. It's partly perhaps a misconception that since these new series are likely to include some elements that have been growing rapidly the aggregates will tend to show more rapid growth. That's the feeling. If there is so... | 73 |
fomc | 1,980 | The reason I asked is that they don't have any sense of this revised seasonal. | 16 |
fomc | 1,980 | No, but they have expressed skepticism about the recent seasonal. Certainly I have heard the comment that the slow growth in the past few months may have partly reflected an inadequate seasonal adjustment for that period. | 39 |
fomc | 1,980 | Peter along those same lines, all the new definitions in January would show greater growth rates than we had for those same measures in September to December whereas all the old ones show less in January. What is the market going to say to that? This is very closely related to what you were saying. | 59 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, I think they might feel that some of their skepticism was well placed. | 16 |
fomc | 1,980 | That's what I am afraid of, really. | 9 |
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