Source stringclasses 1
value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
|---|---|---|---|
fomc | 1,980 | We have a press conference scheduled for Thursday, I think, to attempt to explain these new figures, and that question is sure to arise. I don't look forward with a great sense of anticipation to trying to explain either the substantial actual complications or the fact that the numbers look higher. | 56 |
fomc | 1,980 | We do have the revised seasonal, Paul. That's an annual event to revise the seasonal. | 18 |
fomc | 1,980 | But it doesn't have to go higher. | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, it happens to have done what the market expected it to do. That is, it raised the seasonal factors for the winter quarters and dropped them for the summer. | 34 |
fomc | 1,980 | We have lots of problems. This M2 number is more like the old M3 number, but since it's called M2 and is higher than the [old] M2, we've got a problem. Any other questions or comments? | 47 |
fomc | 1,980 | Stress the long run. Go back to the [previous] six months and it will look a little better as you explain it. | 26 |
fomc | 1,980 | We will adjourn until tomorrow at 9 a.m. | 12 |
fomc | 1,980 | We got through our agenda down to item 4 anyway, yesterday. I suggest that we begin with the staff report on the economic situation and then perhaps take a little more time, if we want to, on the discussion of the economic situation and implications for the longer-term ranges in the light of the fact that this is the m... | 230 |
fomc | 1,980 | I think it's 1986 [for the unemployment objective] and 1988 [for the price objective]. | 22 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes, it was 3 years and 5 years. It is the first time that particular prerogative has been exercised, and maybe it will make everyone feel more relaxed regarding how one reconciles what we do with the dictates of that Act. I mentioned last time that it might be useful--I will not insist upon this--to quantify your feel... | 281 |
fomc | 1,980 | I'm a little confused by this last chart. This shows a rising rate of inflation through most of the first half of 1981, or the first quarter anyway. I thought your projection earlier showed a declining rate of price increase over that period. | 49 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, this is the GNP implicit deflator; on a fixed weight basis it goes down. As you know, the GNP implicit deflator subtracts out the energy prices coming from abroad and, in fact, gives us a lower number than is being experienced domestically. So the implicit deflator at this time would be an understatement of the i... | 92 |
fomc | 1,980 | How do you reach those confidence ratios? I don't really understand the process by which you get a 70 percent confidence interval. | 25 |
fomc | 1,980 | We use the errors from the quarterly model in the equations, which are determined from past history. We run a large number of simulations; in fact this is based upon 400 experiments with the model. And when looking at that, we determine it with a 70 percent confidence interval. | 57 |
fomc | 1,980 | How many were above? | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | How many of those were above and how many below? In effect, using this very large number of simulations, the model would say that 70 percent from the past fall within that bound. | 38 |
fomc | 1,980 | I'd like to comment--I'm probably the only simple-minded person on the Committee--that I found your presentation to be the best I've seen. It was presented in a form that I found very easy to understand and I liked it. | 46 |
fomc | 1,980 | Thank you. | 3 |
fomc | 1,980 | Could I ask a question, Mr. Chairman? The Chairman [of the Congressional Committee] has asked us to talk about possibilities regarding real GNP, the CPI, and unemployment. As I understand your presentation, your real GNP forecast for 1980 would be down 2.2 percent. | 60 |
fomc | 1,980 | Now, wait a minute. That's for the year as a whole, isn't it? | 17 |
fomc | 1,980 | That's fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter. | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | Isn't that what you're asking? | 7 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes it is. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | And you have the unemployment rate at 7-3/4 percent at the end of the year. | 21 |
fomc | 1,980 | That's right. | 3 |
fomc | 1,980 | What's your CPI? That is what he asked. | 10 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, you'd want to add a line on that table for the staff forecast for 1980, QIV to QIV. The staff has a forecast of 11.4 percent for the increase in the CPI. And for 1981 the staff forecast for the CPI is 8.6 percent. Just for comparison-- | 66 |
fomc | 1,980 | For the fourth quarter of 1980 you have what? | 12 |
fomc | 1,980 | No, for the percentage change from the fourth quarter of 1979 to the fourth quarter of 1980 we have 11.4 percent. | 30 |
fomc | 1,980 | What is the rate of consumer price increase in the fourth quarter of 1980? | 17 |
fomc | 1,980 | 9.2 percent. | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | But the change over the year is 11.4 percent? | 13 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, we have a forecast of around 15-1/2 percent in the first quarter of this year with a combination of energy [prices] and high mortgage rates driving it up. It drops to 11-3/4 percent [in the second quarter] and then to 9-1/4 percent in the second half of this year, which measured fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter g... | 91 |
fomc | 1,980 | I don't understand. What was it in the fourth quarter of last year? | 15 |
fomc | 1,980 | 13.0 percent. | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | And it's going to be 9.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 1980, according to this projection? | 24 |
fomc | 1,980 | That's right. | 3 |
fomc | 1,980 | Give or take a percentage point. | 7 |
fomc | 1,980 | What is this change of 11 percent that you're talking about? | 13 |
fomc | 1,980 | Fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter. | 7 |
fomc | 1,980 | You take the level of the index in the fourth quarter of 1979 and calculate the percentage change in the level to the fourth quarter 1980. Early in 1980 we have very rapid increases in the CPI and they slow later on. | 50 |
fomc | 1,980 | Why don't you give us the quarterly figures. It may help us. | 14 |
fomc | 1,980 | And year-over-year is different from fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter. | 14 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, if you want to look at some of these numbers: The fourth quarter of 1979 is 13.0 percent; the first quarter of 1980 is 15.6; the second quarter is 11.7; the third quarter is 9.2; and the fourth quarter is 9.2. Measured fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter, that is an increase of 11.4 percent. | 88 |
fomc | 1,980 | What do you have year-over-year, for 1980 over 1979? | 17 |
fomc | 1,980 | I think we have that on a different table. If not, someone may have a calculator and we can--. It's 12.8 percent. | 30 |
fomc | 1,980 | I just have to decide what figure I want here. I think I want the fourth quarter rate of change, your 9.2 percent figure. | 30 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes, I think that's right. The rate of inflation as measured by the CPI is reduced by the end of the year to 9-1/4 percent. The Administration has more than that, doesn't it? | 43 |
fomc | 1,980 | I have a December-to-December calculation for the Administration. They didn't calculate it quarterly; I have the details, [so I can] calculate it. It's roughly comparable. For fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter it's 10.4 percent in 1980, which compares to our 11.4 percent. And for 1981 we're both at the same level, 8.6 p... | 89 |
fomc | 1,980 | The figures we are looking for, then, are the [counterparts] of your minus 2.2 percent--that's the fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter change in real GNP--the level of unemployment in the fourth quarter, and the rate of change in the consumer price index during the fourth quarter. | 62 |
fomc | 1,980 | You want the CPI in our [forecasts] rather than the implicit deflator? | 17 |
fomc | 1,980 | It happens to be the same; it's 9.2 percent for the fixed weight price index, too. | 22 |
fomc | 1,980 | It does happen to be the same. | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | Can you tell me what the consensus is of private forecasts at this point? | 15 |
fomc | 1,980 | The consensus of price forecasts or what? | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | For everything. | 3 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, for these three items or some approximations thereof. | 12 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, I don't have a consensus. I can give you some numbers based on a couple of the econometric model forecasts. I might just say that a great deal of difficulty is associated with this sort of exercise in that both the monetary and fiscal assumptions differ. And in many cases one doesn't know what the energy price as... | 328 |
fomc | 1,980 | Do you have the interest rate assumptions in the Administration's forecast? | 13 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes, I do. Do you want a fourth-quarter level or--? | 15 |
fomc | 1,980 | Fourth-quarter level. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | The level in the fourth quarter of 1980 is 9.6 percent on the 3-month bill rate; in the fourth quarter of 1981, it's 8.8 percent. The staff forecast has a bill rate of 11 percent in Q4 1980 and 11-1/2 percent in Q4 1981. There is no explicit money assumption that goes with the Administration's forecast. | 86 |
fomc | 1,980 | But if you calculated it, what would it be? They must have some [implicit assumption]. Is it higher than yours? | 25 |
fomc | 1,980 | It would have to be higher. | 7 |
fomc | 1,980 | It has to be higher than yours. | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | We are very pleased that they have not put that in. | 12 |
fomc | 1,980 | Me, too, Steve. | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | They may be using a different equation. | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | Let sleeping dogs lie, I guess. | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | Eggert is very cheap. Why don't you go ahead and buy it so you can have it? | 20 |
fomc | 1,980 | We do buy it; I don't look at it. Well, I can't say I don't look at it. It's a rundown of 30 or 35 forecasts. Unfortunately, they come out with different time periods and no listing of the policy assumptions, so it's very difficult to compare one to another. It's helpful if one just wants to scan what private forecaste... | 114 |
fomc | 1,980 | Let me add one more item on the list that I asked you to comment on and that is the fiscal policy [unintelligible]. Mr. Roos. | 33 |
fomc | 1,980 | Jim, maybe you've answered this. I am a little lost. On the GNP implicit price deflator, where your projections show an increase into 1981, did you put any weight on monetary policy? In order words if, as we have announced, we are going to reduce gradually the rate of money growth, do you still anticipate this upward m... | 85 |
fomc | 1,980 | No, that plays a very important role. But we have inflation coming down in 1981; it's not going up. | 25 |
fomc | 1,980 | But you show it going up [initially]; it's sort of a roller coaster. | 17 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, as I say, in part the deflator is a statistical artifact when import prices are rising very rapidly. I do believe that there's little that can be done to change the course of price developments within the next three or four months. In fact, already just about half of the first quarter is over, so in our view we'r... | 82 |
fomc | 1,980 | Do you see that prevailing through the second quarter of 1981? In other words, you don't see any relief even though we're doing what we are doing here in gradually reducing the rate of [monetary growth]? | 44 |
fomc | 1,980 | As I say, part of that is attributable to the performance of import prices in influencing this calculation. It is our view that prices do improve. If you take a look at an alternative measure of prices, in the section that Jerry Zeisel was referring to--go back one section [in the handout] right before the yellow sheet... | 129 |
fomc | 1,980 | But if we hang in there, which we are determined to do, and keep firm control over and gradually reduce the growth rate of whatever Ms we are controlling, don't all these other things fall into line? Or do you still have to run 400 equations to see what--? | 56 |
fomc | 1,980 | What falls into line? I only wanted to tell you that while we give you point forecasts, we're quite aware that there's a wide range of error associated with any forecast. We tried to look at past history to suggest how big that range is, and it's sizable. We have no difficulty with your point that monetary policy over ... | 88 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Willes. | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Like Governor Schultz, I found this a particularly interesting presentation, but I think for a slightly different reason. | 28 |
fomc | 1,980 | You mean you're not simple-minded? | 7 |
fomc | 1,980 | Without touching that line with a 10-foot pole, I want simply to refer to the very last chart! I think the staff has done us a great service in presenting that because with all the conversation about whether the increase in the CPI is going to be 9.2 percent or whatever, if you look at that band [depicting the range of... | 295 |
fomc | 1,980 | It depends on the speed of the projector. | 9 |
fomc | 1,980 | You're exactly right. It depends on the speed of the projector and the speed with which the wheel is moving. Now, let's suppose that decisions are made in continuous time and you take econometric snapshots on a monthly or quarterly basis. It could be a matter of pot luck that the speed of the decisionmaking framework a... | 210 |
fomc | 1,980 | You have expressed yourself eloquently on the wide band of uncertainty. Would you care to express a view on the central tendency as you see it? Or are you so uncertain that you have no view on this policy? | 43 |
fomc | 1,980 | If you press me to the wall, I will. I don't think I can say anything with any credibility, but I'll give you numbers anyway. And if the numbers turn out to be-- | 38 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, I think it is not unimportant that you say there's a great degree of uncertainty and I would like to get that-- | 26 |
fomc | 1,980 | With that great big long caveat that I just gave you, the numbers that we have in terms of real GNP for 1980 are more positive than the staff's. We think on balance that there's going to be some very modest positive real growth during 1980 and we tie that in with what we see happening with fiscal policy and slightly st... | 131 |
fomc | 1,980 | Even though you have positive output growth, you would agree with that unemployment number? | 16 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,980 | Do you have any particular feeling about fiscal policy? | 10 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes, the deficit is understated. | 7 |
fomc | 1,980 | By the staff or--? | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | That is, without a discretionary tax decrease it is understated. | 12 |
fomc | 1,980 | But by how much, I-- | 7 |
fomc | 1,980 | Do you wish to say whether you think a tax cut is a good idea or not? | 18 |
fomc | 1,980 | I think a tax cut would be a disaster. | 10 |
fomc | 1,980 | Okay, that's a clear view! Mr. Timlen. | 12 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.