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2016-08-26 | 2016-04-22 | [] | binary | [["2016-04-23", 0.25], ["2016-04-23", 0.375], ["2016-04-23", 0.62], ["2016-04-23", 0.7], ["2016-04-23", 0.745], ["2016-04-23", 0.76], ["2016-04-23", 0.724], ["2016-04-23", 0.705], ["2016-04-23", 0.743], ["2016-04-23", 0.75], ["2016-04-24", 0.751], ["2016-04-24", 0.731], ["2016-04-24", 0.733], ["2016-04-24", 0.718], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/220/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | The Zika Virus has emerged as a major health threat in recent months.
Spread primarily by the Aedes Mosquito, Zika can also be spread from mother to child, through sexual contact, and through blood transfusion.
Zika is currently being trasmitted person-to-person in 44 countries and territories, but as of writing not in... | true | 2016-07-01 | Zapping Zika #2: active transmission in the U.S. by August 2016? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-01-01 | 2016-04-22 | [] | binary | [["2016-04-29", 0.29], ["2016-04-29", 0.474], ["2016-04-30", 0.516], ["2016-04-30", 0.513], ["2016-05-01", 0.507], ["2016-05-02", 0.507], ["2016-05-02", 0.494], ["2016-05-03", 0.493], ["2016-05-03", 0.508], ["2016-05-05", 0.494], ["2016-05-05", 0.476], ["2016-05-07", 0.477], ["2016-05-12", 0.477], ["2016-05-15", 0.478]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/221/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | In an effort to combat mosquito-borne Zika Virus, Oxitec, a UK-based synthetic biology company specializing in infectious vector control, developed a type of "self-limiting" GMO Aedes aegypti mosquito.
This organism has passed regulatory approval in several countries in central and South America, and has since shown si... | true | 2016-10-01 | Zapping Zika #4: GMO Mosquitos in Puerto Rico? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-04 | 2016-04-22 | [] | binary | [["2016-04-26", 0.09], ["2016-04-26", 0.517], ["2016-04-26", 0.514], ["2016-04-26", 0.512], ["2016-04-26", 0.502], ["2016-04-26", 0.486], ["2016-04-26", 0.489], ["2016-04-26", 0.464], ["2016-04-27", 0.479], ["2016-04-27", 0.501], ["2016-04-27", 0.487], ["2016-04-29", 0.481], ["2016-04-30", 0.486], ["2016-05-01", 0.482]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/222/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | The Zika Virus has emerged as a major global health threat in recent months.
Since the recognition in April 2015 of the initial outbreak in Brazil, Zika has quickly spread, with active transission in many countries in South and Central America as well as several in Southeast Asia
The habitat of its primary vector, the ... | true | 2016-12-01 | Zapping Zika #3: 1 million infections in US and its territories by 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-02-08 | 2016-04-27 | [] | binary | [["2016-04-27", 0.15], ["2016-05-01", 0.355], ["2016-05-06", 0.372], ["2016-05-10", 0.389], ["2016-05-14", 0.391], ["2016-05-17", 0.394], ["2016-05-22", 0.407], ["2016-05-28", 0.407], ["2016-06-01", 0.409], ["2016-06-06", 0.401], ["2016-06-11", 0.393], ["2016-06-13", 0.387], ["2016-06-18", 0.381], ["2016-06-21", 0.386]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/224/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | SpaceX has declared an intention to launch a "Red Dragon" spacecraft for a soft landing on Mars "as soon as 2018," per the initial announcement on twitter.
Per the more detailed article, this will be a joint effort with NASA, with NASA providing technical support in exchange for data taken by SpaceX's craft. The missio... | true | 2017-06-16 | Will SpaceX launch for Mars in the 2018 window? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-09-16 | 2016-05-02 | [] | binary | [["2016-05-04", 0.69], ["2016-05-04", 0.795], ["2016-05-04", 0.81], ["2016-05-04", 0.815], ["2016-05-04", 0.77], ["2016-05-04", 0.807], ["2016-05-04", 0.806], ["2016-05-04", 0.778], ["2016-05-04", 0.789], ["2016-05-04", 0.777], ["2016-05-05", 0.777], ["2016-05-05", 0.769], ["2016-05-05", 0.762], ["2016-05-05", 0.778], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/225/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | A key observable (and important effect) of global climate change is the extent of the Arctic ice sheet, which varies seasonally but also has a significant downward secular trend, presumably tied to global temperature increase.
The total extent of the sheet as a function of time is tracked in detail via a combination of... | true | 2016-07-01 | Will 2016 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-11-09 | 2016-05-03 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-12", 0.4], ["2016-06-13", 0.706], ["2016-06-13", 0.733], ["2016-06-15", 0.743], ["2016-06-16", 0.679], ["2016-06-16", 0.689], ["2016-06-17", 0.707], ["2016-06-19", 0.704], ["2016-06-20", 0.711], ["2016-06-22", 0.718], ["2016-06-22", 0.72], ["2016-06-24", 0.728], ["2016-06-26", 0.73], ["2016-06-28", 0.697], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/226/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The Adult use of Marijuana Act is an initiative for the legalization of marijuana legalization that is being proposed for the November, 2016 California ballot.
Per the summary here it would allow adults of age 21 or over to possess, use, and grow small quantities of marijuana.
According to this summary the act currentl... | true | 2016-11-01 | Will marijuana be voted legal in California in 2016? | metaculus | 1 |
2016-11-09 | 2016-05-05 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-02", 0.31], ["2016-06-03", 0.171], ["2016-06-03", 0.155], ["2016-06-04", 0.147], ["2016-06-04", 0.141], ["2016-06-06", 0.135], ["2016-06-06", 0.133], ["2016-06-07", 0.141], ["2016-06-07", 0.143], ["2016-06-09", 0.14], ["2016-06-09", 0.136], ["2016-06-11", 0.134], ["2016-06-20", 0.137], ["2016-06-21", 0.136],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/227/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The 2016 Republican presidential primary election, and in particular the (presumed) appointment of controversial candidate Donald Trump as the party nominee has led to signs of apparent division within the Republican party. For example, some leading party members, including former presidential candidate Mitt Romney, an... | true | 2016-10-08 | Will an independent conservative candidate gain a significant number of votes in the 2016 US Presidential election? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-05-01 | 2016-05-12 | [] | binary | [["2016-05-13", 0.99], ["2016-05-13", 0.527], ["2016-05-13", 0.543], ["2016-05-14", 0.518], ["2016-05-14", 0.517], ["2016-05-15", 0.517], ["2016-05-15", 0.511], ["2016-05-16", 0.542], ["2016-05-16", 0.542], ["2016-05-16", 0.557], ["2016-05-16", 0.552], ["2016-05-17", 0.561], ["2016-05-17", 0.563], ["2016-05-18", 0.563]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/230/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | We live in a 3+1 dimensional world, meaning that to specify the location of some point in space-time requires four coordinates. But why? Fundamental laws of physics such as Quantum Field Theory and General Relativity can be consistently posed in any number of spatial dimensions (though more than one time dimension is g... | true | 2016-12-01 | Progress in why the universe is 3+1 dimensional? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-03 | 2016-05-13 | [] | binary | [["2016-05-13", 0.84], ["2016-05-17", 0.594], ["2016-05-20", 0.565], ["2016-05-25", 0.58], ["2016-06-03", 0.585], ["2016-06-07", 0.588], ["2016-06-20", 0.589], ["2016-06-20", 0.592], ["2016-06-29", 0.591], ["2016-07-11", 0.597], ["2016-07-23", 0.605], ["2016-07-30", 0.599], ["2016-08-04", 0.635], ["2016-08-11", 0.62], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/231/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Apple has been significantly increasing its R&D spending of late, with no announcement or outside consensus as to what it has in development.
One possibility is an Apple Car, but another speculation is that Apple is looking to develop a major new Augmented Reality or Virtual Reality system. Is a good part of the R&D go... | true | 2018-06-02 | Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-09 | 2016-05-17 | [] | binary | [["2016-05-18", 0.08], ["2016-05-19", 0.22], ["2016-05-19", 0.291], ["2016-05-19", 0.301], ["2016-05-20", 0.316], ["2016-05-20", 0.316], ["2016-05-20", 0.317], ["2016-05-22", 0.317], ["2016-05-22", 0.336], ["2016-05-22", 0.336], ["2016-05-24", 0.335], ["2016-05-24", 0.354], ["2016-05-25", 0.348], ["2016-05-28", 0.355],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/232/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has been inside the Ecuadorian embassy in London since June 2012, fearing arrest and extradition to Sweden should he leave.
Recently a UN working group found he had been arbitrarily detained, suggesting that the UN or other bodies pressure for him to be allowed out.
This question asks w... | true | 2016-09-30 | Will Julian Assange still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the start of 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-01-01 | 2016-05-17 | [] | binary | [["2016-05-19", 0.58], ["2016-05-19", 0.57], ["2016-05-20", 0.71], ["2016-05-20", 0.636], ["2016-05-20", 0.54], ["2016-05-20", 0.586], ["2016-05-20", 0.577], ["2016-05-20", 0.561], ["2016-05-20", 0.553], ["2016-05-21", 0.567], ["2016-05-22", 0.543], ["2016-05-22", 0.517], ["2016-05-22", 0.496], ["2016-05-22", 0.496], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/233/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The National Ignition Facility (NIF), residing in Livermore, CA, is the largest laser and inertial confinement fusion (ICF) device in the world. It's mission is to provide high energy gain from the fusion of a hydrogen fuel pellet, ignited using an impressive array of 192 lasers (see how it works).
Development of the N... | true | 2016-09-01 | Will the National Ignition Facility announce a shot at break-even fusion by start of 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-07-01 | 2016-05-23 | [] | binary | [["2016-05-25", 0.29], ["2016-05-25", 0.32], ["2016-05-25", 0.347], ["2016-05-25", 0.368], ["2016-05-25", 0.372], ["2016-05-25", 0.377], ["2016-05-25", 0.464], ["2016-05-26", 0.431], ["2016-05-26", 0.43], ["2016-05-26", 0.406], ["2016-05-26", 0.407], ["2016-05-26", 0.408], ["2016-05-26", 0.463], ["2016-05-26", 0.443], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/234/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | eLISA (Evolved Laser Interferometer Space Antenna) is one of the leading projects in the newly born field of gravitational wave astronomy. Two key landmark successes came together in 2016 that have sparked great enthusiasm for the potential of the eLISA proposal; first, LIGO published in February the first detection of... | true | 2016-12-15 | Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-01-20 | 2016-05-27 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-02", 0.4], ["2016-06-03", 0.242], ["2016-06-04", 0.263], ["2016-06-06", 0.272], ["2016-06-07", 0.269], ["2016-06-07", 0.275], ["2016-06-09", 0.281], ["2016-06-10", 0.279], ["2016-06-11", 0.279], ["2016-06-13", 0.277], ["2016-06-19", 0.28], ["2016-06-20", 0.276], ["2016-06-28", 0.276], ["2016-06-28", 0.286], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/237/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The 115th United States Congress is set to convene on January 6, 2017. When it convenes, will the House of Representatives elect a speaker from the Democratic Party? | true | 2016-11-01 | Will the Democratic Party control the U.S. House of Representatives in 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-01-20 | 2016-05-27 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-02", 0.4], ["2016-06-04", 0.42], ["2016-06-04", 0.425], ["2016-06-06", 0.428], ["2016-06-07", 0.427], ["2016-06-09", 0.425], ["2016-06-11", 0.424], ["2016-06-20", 0.418], ["2016-06-20", 0.431], ["2016-06-24", 0.43], ["2016-06-29", 0.432], ["2016-06-30", 0.433], ["2016-07-02", 0.432], ["2016-07-09", 0.43], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/238/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The 115th United States Congress is set to convene on January 6, 2017. When it convenes, will the Senate elect a majority leader from the Democratic Party? | true | 2016-11-03 | Will the Democratic Party control the U.S. Senate in 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-06-19 | 2016-05-27 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-15", 0.58], ["2016-06-16", 0.479], ["2016-06-18", 0.404], ["2016-06-19", 0.389], ["2016-06-21", 0.403], ["2016-06-23", 0.399], ["2016-06-28", 0.393], ["2016-06-30", 0.376], ["2016-07-07", 0.367], ["2016-07-23", 0.35], ["2016-07-26", 0.343], ["2016-07-28", 0.339], ["2016-07-31", 0.345], ["2016-08-03", 0.376],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/239/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | It would be pleasant to believe that worldwide epidemics, such as the 1346-53 black death or the 1918-19 Spanish Influenza, are a thing of the past. There is, however, no good reason to believe this is the case. While medical countermeasures and sanitation are dramatically improved, global interconnectivity and human (... | true | 2018-06-15 | Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-09 | 2016-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-02", 0.1], ["2016-06-03", 0.258], ["2016-06-04", 0.245], ["2016-06-06", 0.262], ["2016-06-06", 0.262], ["2016-06-07", 0.246], ["2016-06-09", 0.24], ["2016-06-10", 0.233], ["2016-06-11", 0.236], ["2016-06-12", 0.23], ["2016-06-16", 0.23], ["2016-06-19", 0.225], ["2016-06-20", 0.212], ["2016-06-22", 0.21], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/241/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Transplantation of tissue — including organs — from one human (or nonhuman) to another is an amazing advance in medicine that has now saved many lives. Complex organs including the heart and liver are now routinely transplanted, and in many cases even quite complex severed nerves can be reattached.
Much more audacious ... | true | 2016-12-01 | First human head transplant in 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-03 | 2016-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-05", 0.2], ["2019-01-06", 0.139], ["2019-01-07", 0.138], ["2019-01-08", 0.144], ["2019-01-09", 0.145], ["2019-01-11", 0.145], ["2019-01-13", 0.142], ["2019-01-16", 0.14], ["2019-01-21", 0.137], ["2019-01-25", 0.135], ["2019-01-26", 0.135], ["2019-01-29", 0.134], ["2019-01-30", 0.13], ["2019-02-12", 0.128], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1694/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Transplantation of tissue — including organs — from one human (or nonhuman) to another is an amazing advance in medicine that has now saved many lives. Complex organs including the heart and liver are now routinely transplanted, and in many cases even quite complex severed nerves can be reattached.
Much more audacious ... | true | 2019-12-01 | First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-03-25 | 2016-06-05 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-15", 0.58], ["2016-06-15", 0.785], ["2016-06-15", 0.657], ["2016-06-15", 0.5], ["2016-06-15", 0.498], ["2016-06-15", 0.457], ["2016-06-15", 0.427], ["2016-06-16", 0.43], ["2016-06-16", 0.421], ["2016-06-16", 0.389], ["2016-06-16", 0.368], ["2016-06-17", 0.358], ["2016-06-20", 0.36], ["2016-06-21", 0.389], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/243/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Airborne pathogens pose a high pandemic threat because they can so easily spread from person to person, making effective quarantine very difficult. A number of such pathogens in both viral (e.g. Flu, Smallpox, and of course the Common Cold) and bacterial (e.g. Tuberculosis, Whooping Cough) form are well known, and new ... | true | 2017-06-15 | Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2016-06-06 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-15", 0.53], ["2016-06-15", 0.76], ["2016-06-15", 0.64], ["2016-06-15", 0.507], ["2016-06-15", 0.504], ["2016-06-15", 0.487], ["2016-06-15", 0.453], ["2016-06-16", 0.456], ["2016-06-16", 0.452], ["2016-06-16", 0.412], ["2016-06-16", 0.397], ["2016-06-17", 0.39], ["2016-06-20", 0.424], ["2016-06-20", 0.417], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/244/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Among their many irritating qualities, mosquitos act as highly efficient carriers of disease. Malaria, caused by the plasmodium protozoa, is the prime and widespread example, with approx. 200M cases in 2014 leading to approx. 440K fatalities in 2015, according to the WHO. Mosquito-borne viral illnesses include Yellow F... | true | 2017-06-15 | Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-06-01 | 2016-06-06 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-07", 0.4], ["2016-06-09", 0.492], ["2016-06-09", 0.479], ["2016-06-11", 0.486], ["2016-06-16", 0.487], ["2016-06-20", 0.472], ["2016-06-21", 0.499], ["2016-06-28", 0.524], ["2016-06-30", 0.517], ["2016-07-06", 0.505], ["2016-07-19", 0.497], ["2016-07-23", 0.507], ["2016-07-26", 0.504], ["2016-07-27", 0.495],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/245/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Although the majority of funding on development of nuclear fusion is governmental, a number of significant private efforts have been launched in recent years as well. General Fusion, based in British Columbia, is a privately funded company pursuing magnetized target fusion (MTF), backed by venture capital funds as well... | true | 2018-06-01 | Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-03 | 2016-06-07 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-15", 0.39], ["2016-06-15", 0.69], ["2016-06-15", 0.613], ["2016-06-15", 0.475], ["2016-06-15", 0.478], ["2016-06-15", 0.465], ["2016-06-15", 0.42], ["2016-06-16", 0.425], ["2016-06-16", 0.423], ["2016-06-16", 0.401], ["2016-06-16", 0.383], ["2016-06-17", 0.377], ["2016-06-19", 0.367], ["2016-06-20", 0.384], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/246/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Some of the least pleasant diseases humans have dealt with are those transmitted by direct person-to-person contact via blood, saliva, or other bodily fluids. Hepatitis, HIV/AIDs, and hemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola and Marburg are key examples.
While this transmission method is much less efficient than an airborne mo... | true | 2017-06-15 | Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-30 | 2016-06-08 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-15", 0.37], ["2016-06-15", 0.431], ["2016-06-16", 0.404], ["2016-06-16", 0.376], ["2016-06-17", 0.387], ["2016-06-20", 0.392], ["2016-06-21", 0.433], ["2016-06-21", 0.417], ["2016-06-23", 0.41], ["2016-06-24", 0.394], ["2016-06-30", 0.383], ["2016-06-30", 0.386], ["2016-07-11", 0.386], ["2016-07-23", 0.38], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/248/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The potential for the deliberate release of a human pathogens for purposes of war or terrorism is well known. Here we look at one of the precursors to such a release.
In the US, medical research on potentially human-harmful viral and bacterial pathogen and other "select agents" generally takes place in Biosafety level ... | true | 2018-01-01 | Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-11 | 2016-06-09 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-15", 0.68], ["2016-06-15", 0.532], ["2016-06-15", 0.543], ["2016-06-16", 0.511], ["2016-06-16", 0.51], ["2016-06-16", 0.474], ["2016-06-16", 0.463], ["2016-06-17", 0.443], ["2016-06-20", 0.448], ["2016-06-20", 0.441], ["2016-06-21", 0.459], ["2016-06-21", 0.448], ["2016-06-23", 0.436], ["2016-06-24", 0.422],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/250/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Like nuclear terrorism, bioterror presents possibility of an attack orders of magnitude larger than those using conventional means (or even unconventional but direct physical attacks such as the 9/11 attacks.)
We've rather luckily avoided bioterror attacks in the past, which have primarily been attempted using anthrax,... | true | 2017-06-15 | Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-27 | 2016-06-09 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-15", 0.4], ["2016-06-17", 0.376], ["2016-06-20", 0.384], ["2016-06-23", 0.397], ["2016-06-27", 0.385], ["2016-06-30", 0.372], ["2016-07-07", 0.372], ["2016-07-13", 0.365], ["2016-07-23", 0.355], ["2016-07-26", 0.36], ["2016-07-28", 0.34], ["2016-07-30", 0.339], ["2016-08-03", 0.371], ["2016-08-06", 0.366], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/251/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Although the intended target of biological weapons of war or terror is generally human, there is a history of development of bioweapons against agricultural crops or livestock going back up to a century. See This comprehensive article. As a particularly scary example, part of the Soviet Union's extensive bioweapons pro... | true | 2018-06-15 | Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-09 | 2016-06-09 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-09", 0.18], ["2016-06-09", 0.336], ["2016-06-09", 0.289], ["2016-06-09", 0.27], ["2016-06-10", 0.273], ["2016-06-10", 0.264], ["2016-06-11", 0.271], ["2016-06-11", 0.263], ["2016-06-13", 0.249], ["2016-06-16", 0.254], ["2016-06-17", 0.245], ["2016-06-19", 0.237], ["2016-06-19", 0.237], ["2016-06-20", 0.239],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/252/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In Janurary 2016 Physical Review Letters published a paper by a Hungarian research group reporting anomalous results in the decays of excited beryllium-8 atoms. A careful analysis posted in an April paper suggests that this anomaly is consistent with the existence of a hitherto unknown light (17 MeV) vector boson.
Sinc... | true | 2016-10-01 | Will possible evidence for a new light particle be independently confirmed? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-01-04 | 2016-06-10 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-15", 0.91], ["2016-06-15", 0.95], ["2016-06-15", 0.793], ["2016-06-15", 0.607], ["2016-06-15", 0.584], ["2016-06-15", 0.553], ["2016-06-15", 0.51], ["2016-06-16", 0.507], ["2016-06-16", 0.496], ["2016-06-16", 0.476], ["2016-06-16", 0.455], ["2016-06-17", 0.446], ["2016-06-19", 0.435], ["2016-06-20", 0.424], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/253/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Given the dramatic advances in our ability to understand and modify the genome of organisms, the idea of a pathogen that has been genetically engineered (rather than artificially selected) to increase its virulence, transmissibility, or scope of effect is a rapidly growing concern.
As discussed in this question, resear... | true | 2017-06-15 | Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-05-16 | 2016-06-11 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-15", 0.34], ["2016-06-15", 0.665], ["2016-06-15", 0.703], ["2016-06-15", 0.65], ["2016-06-15", 0.638], ["2016-06-15", 0.632], ["2016-06-15", 0.613], ["2016-06-16", 0.604], ["2016-06-16", 0.592], ["2016-06-16", 0.593], ["2016-06-16", 0.584], ["2016-06-17", 0.577], ["2016-06-20", 0.553], ["2016-06-21", 0.599],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/256/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In an effort to better understand the pathways by which H5N1 (and other flue), MERS, SARS, etc., may become more dangerous, several research groups have begun to deliberately engineer viruses to increase their virulence, transmissibility, or other qualities.
This "gain of function" (GoF) research may help prepare use f... | true | 2017-03-01 | Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-01-14 | 2016-06-13 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-15", 0.68], ["2016-06-15", 0.835], ["2016-06-15", 0.71], ["2016-06-15", 0.695], ["2016-06-15", 0.654], ["2016-06-15", 0.645], ["2016-06-15", 0.624], ["2016-06-16", 0.614], ["2016-06-16", 0.612], ["2016-06-16", 0.616], ["2016-06-16", 0.605], ["2016-06-17", 0.588], ["2016-06-19", 0.576], ["2016-06-20", 0.577],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/257/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | Published research on pathogens is overwhelmingly aimed at preventing the creation and spreading of disease. (Bioweapons programs, if they exist despite international treaty, are secret and/or classified.)
Nonetheless, some research and research publication have encountered criticism for potentially increasing the risk... | true | 2017-06-15 | Pandemic series: pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-09-20 | 2016-06-13 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-12", 0.16], ["2019-01-12", 0.28], ["2019-01-12", 0.302], ["2019-01-12", 0.262], ["2019-01-12", 0.262], ["2019-01-12", 0.277], ["2019-01-12", 0.284], ["2019-01-12", 0.329], ["2019-01-13", 0.364], ["2019-01-13", 0.364], ["2019-01-14", 0.368], ["2019-01-14", 0.353], ["2019-01-14", 0.342], ["2019-01-16", 0.335],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1687/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Published research on pathogens is overwhelmingly aimed at preventing the creation and spreading of disease. (Bioweapons programs, if they exist despite international treaty, are secret and/or classified.)
Nonetheless, some research and research publication have encountered criticism for potentially increasing the risk... | true | 2019-12-01 | Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-06-24 | 2016-06-16 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-19", 0.33], ["2016-06-19", 0.335], ["2016-06-19", 0.357], ["2016-06-19", 0.33], ["2016-06-19", 0.342], ["2016-06-19", 0.335], ["2016-06-20", 0.289], ["2016-06-20", 0.346], ["2016-06-20", 0.341], ["2016-06-20", 0.274], ["2016-06-20", 0.274], ["2016-06-20", 0.294], ["2016-06-20", 0.294], ["2016-06-20", 0.299],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/258/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | After getting some interesting results from our first "Metaknowledge" experiment, we're running another, this time on Brexit.
As briefly summarized by the by the BBC here, on June 23 there will be a referendum in the UK as to whether the UK will remain part of the EU.
The referendum will be decided by a straight majori... | true | 2016-06-23 | Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will the UK vote for Brexit? | metaculus | 1 |
2016-07-23 | 2016-06-17 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-17", 0.53], ["2016-06-17", 0.6], ["2016-06-17", 0.49], ["2016-06-17", 0.443], ["2016-06-17", 0.408], ["2016-06-17", 0.376], ["2016-06-17", 0.355], ["2016-06-17", 0.326], ["2016-06-17", 0.316], ["2016-06-18", 0.324], ["2016-06-18", 0.313], ["2016-06-18", 0.31], ["2016-06-18", 0.317], ["2016-06-19", 0.308], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/259/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Hillary Clinton's prospective VP nominee list has leaked. The most fun possibilities are probably Elizabeth Warren and Bernie, but he does not appear to be on the list according to Vox. So:
Will Elizabeth Warren be Hillary Clinton's choice for VP?
(This question will retroactively close when the news of Hillary's VP br... | true | 2016-07-06 | Will Clinton pick Elizabeth Warren as VP? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-08-04 | 2016-06-25 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-25", 0.27], ["2016-06-25", 0.205], ["2016-06-25", 0.22], ["2016-06-25", 0.235], ["2016-06-25", 0.258], ["2016-06-25", 0.257], ["2016-06-25", 0.277], ["2016-06-25", 0.272], ["2016-06-25", 0.247], ["2016-06-26", 0.321], ["2016-06-26", 0.324], ["2016-06-26", 0.37], ["2016-06-26", 0.365], ["2016-06-26", 0.379], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/262/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The UK's decision to leave the European Union caught Metaculus modestly by surprise. Consensus on "leave" was that there was a 32% chance. The Brexit, however, really caught the global financial markets by surprise. In the days prior to the vote, stock prices across the world were generally on the increase, with the S&... | true | 2016-07-15 | Is market volatility set to strongly increase? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-05-01 | 2016-06-26 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-26", 0.2], ["2016-06-27", 0.171], ["2016-06-27", 0.196], ["2016-06-28", 0.2], ["2016-06-28", 0.196], ["2016-06-29", 0.208], ["2016-06-30", 0.225], ["2016-06-30", 0.234], ["2016-07-02", 0.231], ["2016-07-02", 0.229], ["2016-07-05", 0.226], ["2016-07-06", 0.23], ["2016-07-11", 0.226], ["2016-07-11", 0.222], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/263/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | The 2015-2016 rainfall season brought some relief to California, following several years of well-below-average rain and snowfall. The northern half of the state received more-or-less average rain and snowfall, but the much-vaunted El Niño Southern Oscillation did not live up to expectations for the southern half of the... | true | 2017-02-01 | Will the California Drought end in 2017? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-01-04 | 2016-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-27", 0.55], ["2016-07-05", 0.226], ["2016-07-15", 0.201], ["2016-07-23", 0.204], ["2016-08-05", 0.228], ["2016-08-12", 0.221], ["2016-08-22", 0.216], ["2016-09-04", 0.193], ["2016-09-10", 0.191], ["2016-09-24", 0.186], ["2016-10-04", 0.185], ["2016-10-16", 0.184], ["2016-11-01", 0.187], ["2016-11-12", 0.186]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/264/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The prospects for "contact" with an extraerrestrial civilization have been the subject of endless speculation. It is generally agreed that no evidence of such civilizations exists. Indeed, the apparent lack of aliens, in conjunction with the known profusion of stars and planets, forms the basis for the so-called Fermi ... | true | 2019-12-31 | Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-12-30 | 2016-06-29 | [] | binary | [["2016-07-01", 0.62], ["2016-07-01", 0.71], ["2016-07-01", 0.803], ["2016-07-01", 0.81], ["2016-07-01", 0.798], ["2016-07-02", 0.783], ["2016-07-02", 0.806], ["2016-07-02", 0.794], ["2016-07-02", 0.766], ["2016-07-03", 0.769], ["2016-07-03", 0.797], ["2016-07-03", 0.797], ["2016-07-03", 0.806], ["2016-07-03", 0.772], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/267/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Participants may be vaguely aware that a referendum in the UK occasionally known as "brexit," calling for the UK to leave the European union, has passed by a simple majority.
This is, however, not quite the end of the story. The referendum was, technically, non-binding, and many things must happen in order to actually ... | true | 2016-07-30 | Will the UK submit article 50 notification to the European Union this year? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2016-06-29 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-30", 0.43], ["2016-07-01", 0.372], ["2016-07-04", 0.372], ["2016-07-04", 0.356], ["2016-07-09", 0.347], ["2016-07-09", 0.331], ["2016-07-10", 0.335], ["2016-07-12", 0.339], ["2016-07-15", 0.329], ["2016-07-15", 0.332], ["2016-07-23", 0.352], ["2016-07-24", 0.347], ["2016-07-26", 0.336], ["2016-07-27", 0.335]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/268/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | For decades, the essential architecture of personal and other computers has been largely the same, with very fast-access random-access memory supplemented by a much slower-access permanent memory storage system (whether punch card, tape, magnetic hard drive or SSD). Data analysis tasks employing very large (i.e. exceed... | true | 2017-05-15 | Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-10-21 | 2016-07-01 | [] | binary | [["2016-07-01", 0.5], ["2016-07-01", 0.35], ["2016-07-02", 0.563], ["2016-07-02", 0.237], ["2016-07-02", 0.205], ["2016-07-02", 0.168], ["2016-07-02", 0.162], ["2016-07-02", 0.137], ["2016-07-02", 0.164], ["2016-07-02", 0.134], ["2016-07-02", 0.145], ["2016-07-02", 0.173], ["2016-07-02", 0.162], ["2016-07-02", 0.154], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/272/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | One hope of Metaculus is not just to allow users to accrue a track record, but to assess, given the large set of statistics assembled, which predictors are doing much better than chance, i.e. are far enough out into the possible probability distribution that their predictions could not have been just luck.
Otherwise, i... | true | 2016-08-24 | A posteriori statistics and five for seven or better on stock dips? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-02-04 | 2016-07-04 | [] | binary | [["2016-07-04", 0.25], ["2016-07-04", 0.29], ["2016-07-04", 0.332], ["2016-07-04", 0.32], ["2016-07-04", 0.432], ["2016-07-04", 0.427], ["2016-07-05", 0.414], ["2016-07-05", 0.378], ["2016-07-05", 0.38], ["2016-07-05", 0.404], ["2016-07-05", 0.418], ["2016-07-06", 0.418], ["2016-07-06", 0.43], ["2016-07-06", 0.415], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/274/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | At a conference on exoplanets this morning (July 4th, 2016), it was announced that the planet HD 219134 c can be observed to transit the disk of its parent star. With this discovery, HD 219134 c ranks as the closest known transiting exoplanet.
This announcement seems unlikely to be met with much fanfare in the news med... | true | 2017-07-01 | Transiting exoplanet within 5 parsecs by 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-01-01 | 2016-07-07 | [] | binary | [["2016-07-08", 0.77], ["2016-07-08", 0.655], ["2016-07-08", 0.61], ["2016-07-08", 0.61], ["2016-07-08", 0.68], ["2016-07-08", 0.654], ["2016-07-08", 0.638], ["2016-07-08", 0.65], ["2016-07-09", 0.631], ["2016-07-09", 0.639], ["2016-07-09", 0.631], ["2016-07-09", 0.619], ["2016-07-10", 0.626], ["2016-07-10", 0.616], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/276/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Fatal shootings of civilians by police were thrust into the national spotlight following the August 2014 shooting death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Mo. The incident sparked a debate about the use of force in police encounters, as well as the lack of comprehensive reporting of such incidents.
Currently, the Bureau of ... | true | 2016-09-01 | Will police officers in the United States shoot and kill more than 1000 people in 2016? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-03 | 2016-07-08 | [] | binary | [["2016-07-09", 0.41], ["2016-07-09", 0.496], ["2016-07-10", 0.45], ["2016-07-10", 0.436], ["2016-07-10", 0.406], ["2016-07-11", 0.324], ["2016-07-11", 0.295], ["2016-07-11", 0.339], ["2016-07-12", 0.343], ["2016-07-12", 0.339], ["2016-07-13", 0.34], ["2016-07-14", 0.327], ["2016-07-15", 0.319], ["2016-07-15", 0.32], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/277/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The pound has fall 11.74% since the Brexit referndum: the exchange rate has gone from 1.49 to 1.3150 dollars per pound.
If the pound were to fall an additional 23.7 % it would reach market parity with the dollar.
Will this happen?
Question resolves as positive if at any time prior to Dec. 30, 2017 the exchange rate as ... | true | 2016-10-15 | Will the Pound be equal to or less than the Dollar by Dec. 30, 2017. | metaculus | 0 |
2016-07-18 | 2016-07-11 | [] | binary | [["2016-07-11", 0.7], ["2016-07-11", 0.7], ["2016-07-11", 0.69], ["2016-07-11", 0.7], ["2016-07-11", 0.665], ["2016-07-11", 0.657], ["2016-07-11", 0.71], ["2016-07-11", 0.778], ["2016-07-11", 0.778], ["2016-07-11", 0.798], ["2016-07-11", 0.798], ["2016-07-11", 0.818], ["2016-07-11", 0.784], ["2016-07-11", 0.818], ["201... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/279/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Elon Musk has teased the release of a second "Top Secret Master Plan." The first installment was in 2006.
Will Tesla publish this plan "this week" meaning (generously) prior to midnight pacific time on Sunday July 16?
For fun, let's dedicate comments on this question to speculating as to exactly what the masterplan wil... | true | 2016-07-14 | New Tesla "Top Secret Master Plan" revealed this week? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-07-26 | 2016-07-12 | [] | binary | [["2016-07-12", 0.81], ["2016-07-12", 0.755], ["2016-07-12", 0.637], ["2016-07-12", 0.665], ["2016-07-12", 0.71], ["2016-07-13", 0.678], ["2016-07-13", 0.702], ["2016-07-13", 0.75], ["2016-07-13", 0.746], ["2016-07-13", 0.776], ["2016-07-13", 0.782], ["2016-07-13", 0.762], ["2016-07-13", 0.757], ["2016-07-13", 0.743], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/282/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Resolves as positive if a tweet (including retweet) on Snowden's feed refers directly to Pokemon Go. | true | 2016-07-25 | Will Edward Snowden tweet about Pokemon Go by July 26? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-02-16 | 2016-07-14 | [] | binary | [["2016-07-16", 0.58], ["2016-07-16", 0.735], ["2016-07-16", 0.667], ["2016-07-16", 0.748], ["2016-07-16", 0.756], ["2016-07-16", 0.76], ["2016-07-17", 0.677], ["2016-07-17", 0.664], ["2016-07-17", 0.673], ["2016-07-18", 0.691], ["2016-07-18", 0.69], ["2016-07-20", 0.685], ["2016-07-22", 0.678], ["2016-07-22", 0.684], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/284/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In 2012, CRISPR/Cas9 burst onto the genetic scene with the limitless promise of gene editing, the ability to remove or replace genetic material in living cells. The landmark discovery has since become tangled in a bitter patent dispute, however, that could shape how the technology can be developed going forward.
CRISPR... | true | 2016-11-15 | Major contentious CRISPR patent to be overturned? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-12-30 | 2016-07-19 | [] | binary | [["2016-07-21", 0.3], ["2016-07-21", 0.545], ["2016-07-21", 0.587], ["2016-07-21", 0.59], ["2016-07-21", 0.622], ["2016-07-21", 0.635], ["2016-07-21", 0.686], ["2016-07-21", 0.678], ["2016-07-21", 0.676], ["2016-07-21", 0.668], ["2016-07-22", 0.662], ["2016-07-22", 0.636], ["2016-07-22", 0.646], ["2016-07-22", 0.657], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/287/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Before artificial skyglow from industrialization, early humans used the stars as navigation during migration, to plant crops for survival, and even created impressively accurate calendars by studying the occurrences of celestial events. Unfortunately, human activities are causing an increasing amount of light pollution... | true | 2016-09-15 | The Galaxy has disappeared from view for a third of humanity; will there be a growing movement to bring it back? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2016-07-19 | [] | binary | [["2016-07-22", 0.66], ["2016-07-23", 0.641], ["2016-07-23", 0.683], ["2016-07-26", 0.688], ["2016-07-26", 0.679], ["2016-07-27", 0.67], ["2016-07-27", 0.67], ["2016-07-28", 0.67], ["2016-07-29", 0.68], ["2016-07-29", 0.68], ["2016-07-29", 0.666], ["2016-07-30", 0.674], ["2016-07-30", 0.68], ["2016-07-31", 0.678], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/288/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Since the 1990s, the Tropical Race 4 strain of Panama disease has been destroying banana crops around the world. The fungus (Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense) operates as a soil pathogen, infecting the banana plant through its root system. It is easily spread through the transportation of contaminated dirt, and there ... | true | 2017-06-15 | Will the banana plague reach Latin America? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-11 | 2016-07-21 | [] | binary | [["2016-07-23", 0.63], ["2016-07-24", 0.618], ["2016-07-26", 0.623], ["2016-07-27", 0.612], ["2016-07-27", 0.618], ["2016-07-29", 0.618], ["2016-07-29", 0.608], ["2016-07-30", 0.61], ["2016-07-31", 0.608], ["2016-07-31", 0.597], ["2016-08-03", 0.586], ["2016-08-04", 0.578], ["2016-08-06", 0.589], ["2016-08-10", 0.604],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/289/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | The NIH-funded Vitamin D and Omega-3 Trial (VITAL) tracks 25,874 men and women across the U.S. over five years, investigating whether taking daily dietary supplements of vitamin D3 (2000 IU) or omega-3 fatty acids (Omacor® fish oil, 1 gram) reduces the risk for developing cancer, heart disease, and stroke in people who... | true | 2017-10-30 | Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-26 | 2016-07-23 | [] | binary | [["2016-07-25", 0.78], ["2016-07-25", 0.735], ["2016-07-25", 0.6], ["2016-07-25", 0.503], ["2016-07-25", 0.503], ["2016-07-25", 0.6], ["2016-07-26", 0.555], ["2016-07-26", 0.657], ["2016-07-26", 0.688], ["2016-07-26", 0.661], ["2016-07-26", 0.642], ["2016-07-26", 0.638], ["2016-07-26", 0.612], ["2016-07-26", 0.603], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/290/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | A team of independent researchers led by Dr. Matthew Lewin at Ophirex, Inc. is working to develop a universal antidote to snakebite.
Snakes bite around 5 million people each year, resulting in about 100,000 deaths worldwide. Bites are traditionally treated with antivenoms, which are snake-specific, expensive, temperatu... | true | 2017-05-15 | Clinical trials of a "universal" snakebite antidote? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-10-21 | 2016-07-23 | [] | binary | [["2016-07-25", 0.69], ["2016-07-26", 0.792], ["2016-07-27", 0.812], ["2016-07-28", 0.817], ["2016-07-29", 0.817], ["2016-07-31", 0.8], ["2016-07-31", 0.795], ["2016-08-02", 0.79], ["2016-08-04", 0.79], ["2016-08-05", 0.788], ["2016-08-06", 0.759], ["2016-08-07", 0.764], ["2016-08-08", 0.727], ["2016-08-11", 0.716], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/291/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Advancing age brings with it a host of health risks, and while modern medicine works to treat many of the conditions associated with aging, no therapy is yet approved to treat aging as an underlying condition.
Slow aging, some researchers say, and you can extend a person's "healthspan," or years of relative health. Del... | true | 2017-07-15 | Funding for a study of anti-aging properties of the diabetes drug Metformin? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-09-03 | 2016-07-23 | [] | binary | [["2016-07-25", 0.83], ["2016-07-25", 0.82], ["2016-07-25", 0.877], ["2016-07-25", 0.89], ["2016-07-25", 0.91], ["2016-07-26", 0.842], ["2016-07-26", 0.912], ["2016-07-26", 0.933], ["2016-07-26", 0.891], ["2016-07-26", 0.854], ["2016-07-26", 0.842], ["2016-07-26", 0.849], ["2016-07-26", 0.828], ["2016-07-26", 0.837], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/292/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | As the Zika virus continues to pose a global health threat, research is underway to develop potential vaccines and treatments. In June 2016, a research team at the University of Massachusetts Medical School published findings that interferon-inducible transmembrane proteins (IFITMs), small proteins found in the human b... | true | 2017-01-01 | Zapping Zika #5: Clinical trials of IFITM3-based therapies? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-01-01 | 2016-07-30 | [] | binary | [["2016-08-01", 0.64], ["2016-08-01", 0.455], ["2016-08-01", 0.47], ["2016-08-01", 0.355], ["2016-08-01", 0.374], ["2016-08-01", 0.395], ["2016-08-01", 0.48], ["2016-08-02", 0.454], ["2016-08-02", 0.481], ["2016-08-02", 0.48], ["2016-08-02", 0.482], ["2016-08-02", 0.484], ["2016-08-02", 0.504], ["2016-08-03", 0.501], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/302/ | Author, inventor, and computer scientist Ray Kurzweil is known as a public advocate for the Singularity, predicting that within decades, artificial intelligence will surpass that of human beings. In 2012, Kurzweil was hired as Google’s Director of Engineering, with a focus on projects involving machine learning and nat... | Science & Tech | Will Kurzweil’s Google team release Danielle or another chatbot by the end of 2016?
For a positive resolution there must be by Dec. 31, 2016 a publicly accessible chatbot (potentially with signup or even fees but open in principle to anyone) released by Google or another child company of Alphabet, Inc. Release notes or... | true | 2016-09-15 | Will Google release a chatbot in 2016? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-11-09 | 2016-08-03 | [] | binary | [["2016-08-05", 0.37], ["2016-08-05", 0.145], ["2016-08-06", 0.4], ["2016-08-06", 0.443], ["2016-08-07", 0.398], ["2016-08-07", 0.421], ["2016-08-08", 0.421], ["2016-08-08", 0.421], ["2016-08-09", 0.409], ["2016-08-09", 0.425], ["2016-08-10", 0.423], ["2016-08-10", 0.426], ["2016-08-10", 0.421], ["2016-08-11", 0.438], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/304/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The fivethirtyeight.com team, lead by Nate Silver, was able to predict exactly the 2012 state-by-state electoral map for the presidential election. In 2008 their prediction missed on only a single state, Indiana, which Obama won by a 0.1% margin.
See for example this writeup on Mashable.
Will the 538 model repeat its 2... | true | 2016-11-08 | Will 538 ace the 2016 US presidential electoral map? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-09-28 | 2016-08-05 | [] | binary | [["2016-08-05", 0.32], ["2016-08-06", 0.445], ["2016-08-06", 0.42], ["2016-08-06", 0.443], ["2016-08-06", 0.443], ["2016-08-06", 0.439], ["2016-08-06", 0.53], ["2016-08-07", 0.493], ["2016-08-08", 0.487], ["2016-08-08", 0.494], ["2016-08-08", 0.484], ["2016-08-09", 0.462], ["2016-08-09", 0.454], ["2016-08-10", 0.446], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/308/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Going to the moon is like a stroll to the corner grocery store compared to going to Mars. One-way travel to Mars can take several months, compared to three days when going to the moon, and the launch window comes around only once every two years. Astronauts traveling to Mars are exposed to high radiation levels, crampe... | true | 2016-09-25 | SpaceX's blueprint to Mars presented in late September? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-07-17 | 2016-08-07 | [] | binary | [["2016-08-08", 0.67], ["2016-08-08", 0.635], ["2016-08-09", 0.56], ["2016-08-09", 0.55], ["2016-08-09", 0.542], ["2016-08-09", 0.535], ["2016-08-09", 0.469], ["2016-08-09", 0.459], ["2016-08-09", 0.463], ["2016-08-09", 0.426], ["2016-08-09", 0.438], ["2016-08-09", 0.418], ["2016-08-10", 0.413], ["2016-08-11", 0.419], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/309/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The Turing machine is an abstract model of computation used for proofs in theoretical computer science. It is very simple in its formulation - a finite set of internal states, an infinitely long tape on which characters can be written, and a finite set of transition rules dictating how a current state and current chara... | true | 2016-12-01 | Will a small Turing machine (< 100 states) be found with behavior that cannot be characterized by mathematical proof? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-18 | 2016-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2016-08-13", 0.85], ["2016-08-16", 0.634], ["2016-08-17", 0.619], ["2016-08-20", 0.616], ["2016-08-24", 0.612], ["2016-08-28", 0.617], ["2016-08-29", 0.618], ["2016-08-31", 0.594], ["2016-09-02", 0.575], ["2016-09-04", 0.59], ["2016-09-11", 0.586], ["2016-09-14", 0.607], ["2016-09-17", 0.637], ["2016-09-18", 0.667],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/314/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Seems like it might be a good time to go into the air conditioner repair business.
In 2015, the average global temperature, according to the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) data analysis, was the warmest on record, handily besting the previous mark which was set way back in 2014.
There is unambiguous e... | true | 2017-07-31 | Will 2017 be the warmest year on record? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-03-30 | 2016-08-14 | [] | binary | [["2016-08-17", 0.38], ["2016-08-17", 0.32], ["2016-08-17", 0.503], ["2016-08-18", 0.494], ["2016-08-18", 0.494], ["2016-08-18", 0.491], ["2016-08-19", 0.467], ["2016-08-19", 0.464], ["2016-08-19", 0.455], ["2016-08-20", 0.455], ["2016-08-20", 0.444], ["2016-08-23", 0.442], ["2016-08-24", 0.442], ["2016-08-31", 0.423],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/315/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The global agricultural sector has been rapidly consolidating, as a three-year decline in crop prices has prompted agribusiness companies both to cut costs and to build in scale. The past year has seen two significant mergers: between Dow Chemical and DuPont in December 2015, and between Syngenta and China National Che... | true | 2016-11-15 | A merger of Bayer and Monsanto by Q1 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-09-01 | 2016-08-18 | [] | binary | [["2016-08-18", 0.5], ["2016-08-18", 0.78], ["2016-08-18", 0.815], ["2016-08-18", 0.797], ["2016-08-18", 0.797], ["2016-08-18", 0.786], ["2016-08-18", 0.818], ["2016-08-18", 0.775], ["2016-08-18", 0.747], ["2016-08-19", 0.754], ["2016-08-19", 0.732], ["2016-08-19", 0.696], ["2016-08-19", 0.714], ["2016-08-19", 0.704], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/316/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Sometimes, events in real life appear to have been cribbed from the scripts of Hollywood thrillers.
On August 16th, the New York Times, along with a number of other news outlets, reported on the release, by an entity referring to itself as the Shadow Brokers, of a 256 Mb compressed archive containing roughly 4,000 file... | true | 2016-08-31 | Will Wikileaks release a significant augmentation to the Equation Group cyberespionage archive? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-01-23 | 2016-08-18 | [] | binary | [["2016-08-31", 0.68], ["2016-08-31", 0.47], ["2016-09-01", 0.537], ["2016-09-01", 0.585], ["2016-09-01", 0.582], ["2016-09-01", 0.568], ["2016-09-01", 0.573], ["2016-09-01", 0.582], ["2016-09-01", 0.57], ["2016-09-01", 0.562], ["2016-09-01", 0.578], ["2016-09-01", 0.611], ["2016-09-01", 0.619], ["2016-09-02", 0.643], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/317/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In April 2016, three nonprofits—the Alliance for Justice, the National Consumer Law Center, and the National Veterans Services Program—filed a class-action lawsuit against the government, alleging that the Administrative Office of the US Courts (AO) has been violating the E-Government Act of 2002 by charging excessive ... | true | 2017-01-30 | Will the DC federal court grant class certification for an ongoing lawsuit against the government for “charging excessive fees to access court records through PACER”? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-03-15 | 2016-09-02 | [] | binary | [["2016-09-04", 0.37], ["2016-09-05", 0.496], ["2016-09-05", 0.48], ["2016-09-05", 0.482], ["2016-09-05", 0.496], ["2016-09-05", 0.5], ["2016-09-06", 0.504], ["2016-09-07", 0.536], ["2016-09-10", 0.559], ["2016-09-12", 0.559], ["2016-09-13", 0.571], ["2016-09-13", 0.556], ["2016-09-14", 0.574], ["2016-09-14", 0.611], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/321/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | America's shift toward renewable energy leans heavily on solar power, a technology that can be installed on homes and relies on a source of energy that is clean and essentially unlimited.
Solar power utilizes photovoltaic technology to convert light energy into electricity. Once the solar panels are manufactured, they ... | true | 2017-06-15 | 1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-08-08 | 2016-09-02 | [] | binary | [["2016-09-04", 0.25], ["2016-09-04", 0.365], ["2016-09-05", 0.353], ["2016-09-05", 0.328], ["2016-09-05", 0.363], ["2016-09-06", 0.369], ["2016-09-07", 0.417], ["2016-09-10", 0.448], ["2016-09-13", 0.431], ["2016-09-14", 0.416], ["2016-09-14", 0.441], ["2016-09-15", 0.456], ["2016-09-16", 0.471], ["2016-09-16", 0.477]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/322/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Social Sciences | Linguists estimate that humans use around 7,000 languages. Only a few are considered global or widespread languages. The others, although spoken by small regional groups, are often key to the identity and heritage of their respective cultures.
Only 102 languages are considered "International" or "National" and are spok... | true | 2018-01-01 | 20 more languages extinct by 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-03 | 2016-09-07 | [] | binary | [["2016-09-11", 0.5], ["2016-09-12", 0.549], ["2016-09-12", 0.535], ["2016-09-13", 0.512], ["2016-09-13", 0.508], ["2016-09-14", 0.49], ["2016-09-14", 0.47], ["2016-09-14", 0.474], ["2016-09-15", 0.475], ["2016-09-16", 0.468], ["2016-09-16", 0.473], ["2016-09-17", 0.485], ["2016-09-19", 0.503], ["2016-09-19", 0.486], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/324/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | The September 2016 issue of National Geographic features a story titled "Why There’s New Hope About Ending Blindness". 39 million people worldwide are affected by total blindness, while hundreds of millions more experience some degree of vision loss.
While not every form of blindness is treatable or preventable, the ar... | true | 2017-09-15 | All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-10-20 | 2016-09-14 | [] | binary | [["2016-09-14", 0.92], ["2016-09-14", 0.72], ["2016-09-14", 0.54], ["2016-09-14", 0.497], ["2016-09-14", 0.498], ["2016-09-14", 0.505], ["2016-09-14", 0.527], ["2016-09-14", 0.524], ["2016-09-14", 0.552], ["2016-09-14", 0.579], ["2016-09-14", 0.575], ["2016-09-14", 0.635], ["2016-09-14", 0.656], ["2016-09-14", 0.707], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/325/ | Dramatic recent progress in narrow (and arguably general) purpose AI has led to a myriad of practical but nascent technologies including autonomous vehicles, automated call-answering systems, highly automated factories, medical and legal expert systems, and so on.
While the automation of repetitive physical labor is an... | Politics & Governance | Will the total time devoted to questions (and answers) directly referring to AI and/or robotic automation of labor in the presidential debates be less than 5 minutes?
The presidential debate schedule currently calls for three debates of around 90 minutes apiece. Resolution is positive if less than 5 minutes of this ~27... | true | 2016-10-03 | Will AI automation of jobs be essentially ignored in the US presidential race? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-06-22 | 2016-09-20 | [] | binary | [["2016-09-22", 0.99], ["2016-09-23", 0.87], ["2016-09-23", 0.667], ["2016-09-23", 0.635], ["2016-09-23", 0.552], ["2016-09-23", 0.513], ["2016-09-23", 0.51], ["2016-09-23", 0.514], ["2016-09-23", 0.518], ["2016-09-23", 0.511], ["2016-09-23", 0.539], ["2016-09-23", 0.536], ["2016-09-23", 0.533], ["2016-09-23", 0.531], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/337/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Social Sciences | In most developed countries the birth rate is below the natural replacement rate of about 2.1 births per female. The past few decades have seen a pattern where developing countries undergo a demographic transition as they develop, giving lower birth rates and longer lifespans at the same time as economic developments.
... | true | 2017-01-01 | World population forecast to peak before 2100? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-11-10 | 2016-09-20 | [] | binary | [["2016-09-21", 0.28], ["2016-09-22", 0.298], ["2016-09-22", 0.3], ["2016-09-22", 0.34], ["2016-09-22", 0.321], ["2016-09-22", 0.33], ["2016-09-22", 0.32], ["2016-09-22", 0.328], ["2016-09-22", 0.328], ["2016-09-22", 0.322], ["2016-09-22", 0.308], ["2016-09-22", 0.315], ["2016-09-23", 0.327], ["2016-09-23", 0.335], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/338/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The next US presidential election will be held Tuesday Nov. 8 2016, and the results very likely known that evening.
We can model stock prices on the morning of Nov. 8 as a probability-weighted average of the stock values conditioned on Clinton's being elected and on Trump's being elected. After the probabilities collap... | true | 2016-11-01 | 2.5% S&P 500 change on November 9? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-11-10 | 2016-09-21 | [] | binary | [["2016-09-21", 0.66], ["2016-09-22", 0.666], ["2016-09-22", 0.664], ["2016-09-22", 0.682], ["2016-09-22", 0.675], ["2016-09-22", 0.677], ["2016-09-22", 0.706], ["2016-09-22", 0.711], ["2016-09-22", 0.714], ["2016-09-22", 0.723], ["2016-09-22", 0.725], ["2016-09-22", 0.712], ["2016-09-22", 0.705], ["2016-09-22", 0.694]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/339/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The US presidential election takes place Nov. 8, 2016. Either Clinton or Trump will presumably be declared winner that evening.
The stock market has currently (and will up to the 8th) 'priced in' the probability of a Clinton or Trump victory. But is the stock value conditioned on a Clinton victory higher or lower than ... | true | 2016-11-01 | Stock market rise correlated with Clinton victory? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-06-25 | 2016-09-29 | [] | binary | [["2016-10-05", 0.295], ["2016-10-05", 0.26], ["2016-10-05", 0.277], ["2016-10-05", 0.252], ["2016-10-05", 0.204], ["2016-10-05", 0.253], ["2016-10-05", 0.335], ["2016-10-05", 0.359], ["2016-10-05", 0.359], ["2016-10-05", 0.323], ["2016-10-05", 0.302], ["2016-10-05", 0.294], ["2016-10-05", 0.294], ["2016-10-05", 0.276]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/340/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Twitter is apparently looking to sell itself off, due to poor revenue growth. Disney, Google, Salesforce, and Microsoft are all potential buyers.
Will Disney successfully buy Twitter by the end of Q2 2017?
This question resolves if and when Twitter is purchased and owned by Disney. On the off chance that a company othe... | true | 2017-01-01 | Will Disney own Twitter by the end of Q2 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-10-15 | 2016-09-30 | [] | binary | [["2016-09-30", 0.875], ["2016-09-30", 0.82], ["2016-09-30", 0.837], ["2016-10-01", 0.862], ["2016-10-01", 0.874], ["2016-10-01", 0.874], ["2016-10-01", 0.856], ["2016-10-01", 0.843], ["2016-10-01", 0.83], ["2016-10-01", 0.83], ["2016-10-01", 0.829], ["2016-10-01", 0.829], ["2016-10-01", 0.836], ["2016-10-02", 0.823], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/341/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Currently discussions between users and administrators of Metaculus are conducted in the comment sections of questions. Sometimes this makes sense, for example as relates to the resolution of that particular question. But there is no forum for meta discussion of features like the new scoring algorithm or new site featu... | true | 2017-01-01 | Will Metaculus add a meta discussion feature? | metaculus | 1 |
2016-10-10 | 2016-10-02 | [] | binary | [["2016-10-02", 0.4], ["2016-10-02", 0.4], ["2016-10-02", 0.423], ["2016-10-02", 0.41], ["2016-10-02", 0.41], ["2016-10-02", 0.463], ["2016-10-02", 0.426], ["2016-10-02", 0.409], ["2016-10-02", 0.416], ["2016-10-02", 0.416], ["2016-10-03", 0.433], ["2016-10-03", 0.402], ["2016-10-03", 0.412], ["2016-10-03", 0.411], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/342/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | During the first Clinton-Trump presidential debate on September 26, 2016, the S&P 500 E-mini stock index futures, which trade nearly around the clock five days per week, increased in value by ~0.7% during the course of the 90-minute debate. A move of this magnitude, which represented a ~$175 billion dollar increase in ... | true | 2016-10-10 | Will the second Clinton-Trump debate move the market in real time? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-01-09 | 2016-10-03 | [] | binary | [["2016-10-03", 0.22], ["2016-10-03", 0.22], ["2016-10-03", 0.337], ["2016-10-03", 0.5], ["2016-10-03", 0.5], ["2016-10-03", 0.408], ["2016-10-03", 0.395], ["2016-10-03", 0.395], ["2016-10-03", 0.381], ["2016-10-03", 0.356], ["2016-10-04", 0.362], ["2016-10-04", 0.377], ["2016-10-04", 0.387], ["2016-10-04", 0.387], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/343/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Deutsche Bank, one of the world's major financial institutions, is experiencing problems that threaten to undermine the confidence of its clients and investors. The U.S. Department of Justice has proposed a $14 billion fine associated with actions that the bank undertook in connection with the 2008 financial crisis. De... | true | 2017-01-01 | Will the German Government bail out Deutsche Bank? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-09-22 | 2016-10-05 | [] | binary | [["2016-10-06", 0.46], ["2016-10-06", 0.235], ["2016-10-06", 0.283], ["2016-10-06", 0.29], ["2016-10-06", 0.29], ["2016-10-06", 0.358], ["2016-10-07", 0.284], ["2016-10-07", 0.291], ["2016-10-07", 0.291], ["2016-10-07", 0.305], ["2016-10-07", 0.327], ["2016-10-07", 0.327], ["2016-10-07", 0.374], ["2016-10-07", 0.374], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/344/ | Angry Birds is a game requiring prediction of the physics-based effects of different-property flying-impaired projectiles on various porcine-sourced structures. This includes aiming the birds, using their varied properties, and using explosions and other effects.
Video games comprise an interesting arena for the traini... | Science & Tech | Will the top AI score in the 2017 Angry Birds Man vs Machine Challenge outscore the top human?
Result concerns only the official challenge (not a followup held as in 2015), and is contingent on such a challenge being held (i.e. the question resolves as ambiguous if there is no competition.) | true | 2017-06-01 | Will AI defeat human in the 2017 Angry Birds challenge? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-02-26 | 2016-10-07 | [] | binary | [["2016-10-09", 0.01], ["2016-10-09", 0.377], ["2016-10-09", 0.236], ["2016-10-09", 0.236], ["2016-10-10", 0.205], ["2016-10-10", 0.25], ["2016-10-10", 0.238], ["2016-10-10", 0.321], ["2016-10-10", 0.329], ["2016-10-10", 0.319], ["2016-10-11", 0.308], ["2016-10-12", 0.365], ["2016-10-12", 0.395], ["2016-10-13", 0.388],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/345/ | Human beings are no longer the best players of the games of Chess or Go, but humans are still fighting the good fight on the poker table. Simple variants of poker have been conquered by the bots, but more complex versions are still being defended.
Texas HoldEm is the most popular form of poker, and its simplest variant... | Science & Tech | This question will resolve positively if by the end of 2018 there is an publicly-announced online poker challenge that pits multiple expert human players (at least 5) against a single poker bot for a cash-game match of a pre-declared number of hands that exceeds 10,000, and the bot comes out ahead of all human players.... | true | 2017-05-16 | Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-03 | 2016-10-10 | [] | binary | [["2016-10-12", 0.69], ["2016-10-12", 0.72], ["2016-10-13", 0.72], ["2016-10-13", 0.582], ["2016-10-13", 0.576], ["2016-10-13", 0.576], ["2016-10-13", 0.645], ["2016-10-13", 0.634], ["2016-10-13", 0.634], ["2016-10-14", 0.673], ["2016-10-15", 0.669], ["2016-10-15", 0.688], ["2016-10-16", 0.662], ["2016-10-18", 0.656], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/346/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Diabetes affects more than 29 million Americans. It's a disease of the pancreas, an organ that, among other functions, monitors the body's blood sugar levels and releases the hormone insulin as needed to keep blood sugar under control.
Diabetes results from a malfunction in the pancreas, requiring people with the disea... | true | 2017-06-15 | Artificial pancreas goes mainstream in 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-03 | 2016-10-10 | [] | binary | [["2016-10-12", 0.54], ["2016-10-13", 0.553], ["2016-10-13", 0.553], ["2016-10-13", 0.633], ["2016-10-13", 0.626], ["2016-10-13", 0.649], ["2016-10-13", 0.649], ["2016-10-14", 0.711], ["2016-10-14", 0.701], ["2016-10-15", 0.701], ["2016-10-15", 0.689], ["2016-10-15", 0.685], ["2016-10-15", 0.719], ["2016-10-15", 0.717]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/347/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | One of the prominent environmental storylines of the 1980s and 1990s was the hole in the ozone layer. After a sweeping ban on ozone-depleting chemicals in 1987, the degradation of the ozone layer appears to have slowed, and is now poised for recovery.
Ozone is a molecule composed of three oxygen atoms. A layer of ozone... | true | 2017-06-15 | Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-01-18 | 2016-10-11 | ["https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jan/17/worlds-oldest-known-person-french-nun-lucile-randon-sister-andree-dies-at-118", "https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11646193/Worlds-oldest-person-French-nun-Sister-Andre-dies-118-retirement-home.html"] | binary | [["2016-10-13", 0.67], ["2016-10-24", 0.586], ["2016-11-03", 0.593], ["2016-11-10", 0.568], ["2016-11-23", 0.58], ["2016-12-06", 0.58], ["2016-12-14", 0.584], ["2016-12-26", 0.587], ["2017-01-13", 0.587], ["2017-01-24", 0.591], ["2017-02-06", 0.593], ["2017-02-21", 0.595], ["2017-02-26", 0.58], ["2017-04-11", 0.582], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/348/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | We are all aware that, unfortunately, that there is a fairly strict upper limit on the lifespace of humans. In particular this article reports research suggesting a "the maximum human lifespan at an average of 115 years, with an absolute limit of 125 years." The research suggests that "the probability in a given year o... | true | 2019-11-28 | Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-06-02 | 2016-10-14 | [] | binary | [["2016-10-17", 0.72], ["2016-10-17", 0.607], ["2016-10-17", 0.55], ["2016-10-17", 0.54], ["2016-10-17", 0.533], ["2016-10-17", 0.486], ["2016-10-18", 0.466], ["2016-10-18", 0.466], ["2016-10-18", 0.467], ["2016-10-18", 0.468], ["2016-10-18", 0.474], ["2016-10-18", 0.478], ["2016-10-20", 0.479], ["2016-10-20", 0.481], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/350/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Striving to create solutions for world problems through incentive based competitions, the non-profit foundation XPRIZE announced back in December of 2015 a three year global competition with a prize purse totaling in $7M USD for the sake of pursuing deeper understanding of our oceans. Named The Shell Ocean Discovery XP... | true | 2017-09-01 | How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-11-09 | 2016-10-17 | [] | binary | [["2016-10-17", 0.57], ["2016-10-17", 0.707], ["2016-10-18", 0.707], ["2016-10-18", 0.698], ["2016-10-18", 0.676], ["2016-10-18", 0.676], ["2016-10-18", 0.724], ["2016-10-18", 0.724], ["2016-10-18", 0.738], ["2016-10-18", 0.738], ["2016-10-18", 0.759], ["2016-10-18", 0.759], ["2016-10-19", 0.749], ["2016-10-19", 0.744]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/352/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The US election will be held Tuesday November 8. Early results generally allow the major news organizations to "call" the election on Tuesday evening, and the loser to concede to the victor – a notable exception being Bush v. Gore 2000, which led to weeks of controversy and was ultimately settled by the Supreme Court.
... | true | 2016-11-07 | Will the US election be decided by Nov. 11? | metaculus | 1 |
2016-12-20 | 2016-10-21 | [] | binary | [["2016-10-23", 0.49], ["2016-10-23", 0.37], ["2016-10-23", 0.33], ["2016-10-23", 0.33], ["2016-10-23", 0.308], ["2016-10-23", 0.308], ["2016-10-23", 0.375], ["2016-10-23", 0.354], ["2016-10-23", 0.397], ["2016-10-23", 0.397], ["2016-10-23", 0.445], ["2016-10-24", 0.423], ["2016-10-24", 0.423], ["2016-10-24", 0.423], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/355/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | An often unstated assumption behind predictions of the U.S. Presidential race is that the electors chosen to vote in the Electoral College will vote for the popular vote winner in their state (except for some electors from Nebraska and Maine, who vote based on the popular vote winner in their congressional district).
T... | true | 2016-11-01 | Will there be any faithless electors in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-01-27 | 2016-10-22 | [] | binary | [["2016-10-23", 0.48], ["2016-10-23", 0.262], ["2016-10-23", 0.262], ["2016-10-23", 0.293], ["2016-10-23", 0.26], ["2016-10-23", 0.316], ["2016-10-23", 0.314], ["2016-10-23", 0.309], ["2016-10-23", 0.311], ["2016-10-23", 0.296], ["2016-10-23", 0.319], ["2016-10-23", 0.319], ["2016-10-23", 0.3], ["2016-10-23", 0.302], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/357/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Few science stories rise to the occasion of occasioning push notifications from both the New York Times and NPR. Planet Nine was among a handful of recent examples.
In mid-January of 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- kicked the news media into high gear by predicting the existence of ... | true | 2017-01-20 | Will Planet Nine Emerge from Hiding Soon? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-03 | 2016-11-03 | [] | binary | [["2016-11-20", 0.24], ["2016-11-20", 0.24], ["2016-11-20", 0.25], ["2016-11-21", 0.262], ["2016-11-21", 0.262], ["2016-11-21", 0.243], ["2016-11-21", 0.243], ["2016-11-21", 0.277], ["2016-11-21", 0.292], ["2016-11-21", 0.292], ["2016-11-22", 0.291], ["2016-11-22", 0.291], ["2016-11-22", 0.267], ["2016-11-22", 0.3], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/366/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Recently there have been several warnings on the volume of corporate debt in China (by the IMF, Financial Times, etc.), which is likely to affect the country's financial sector because State Owned Enterprises under stress are being "bailed out" by State Owned Banks e.g. through debt restructuring or loan-for-equity swa... | true | 2016-12-31 | Will there be a financial crisis in China in 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-12-30 | 2016-11-05 | [] | binary | [["2016-11-06", 0.6], ["2016-11-06", 0.45], ["2016-11-06", 0.45], ["2016-11-06", 0.45], ["2016-11-06", 0.42], ["2016-11-07", 0.42], ["2016-11-07", 0.34], ["2016-11-07", 0.355], ["2016-11-07", 0.34], ["2016-11-07", 0.363], ["2016-11-07", 0.354], ["2016-11-07", 0.37], ["2016-11-07", 0.412], ["2016-11-07", 0.412], ["2016-... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/368/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | A hypothetical object called a time crystal was first proposed by Frank Wilczek in 2012. Once just a mathematical curiosity, its existence may have been experimentally confirmed by a team of physicists who observed predicted time crystal behavior in an interacting spin chain of trapped atomic ions. The work is reported... | true | 2016-11-30 | How important are "time crystals"? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-14 | 2016-11-05 | [] | binary | [["2016-11-06", 0.61], ["2016-11-06", 0.765], ["2016-11-06", 0.765], ["2016-11-06", 0.765], ["2016-11-07", 0.66], ["2016-11-07", 0.56], ["2016-11-07", 0.56], ["2016-11-07", 0.598], ["2016-11-07", 0.598], ["2016-11-07", 0.584], ["2016-11-08", 0.643], ["2016-11-08", 0.632], ["2016-11-08", 0.629], ["2016-11-08", 0.622], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/369/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Millions of people worldwide are afflicted with Alzheimer's disease, a neurological disease that breaks down brain functions, eventually leading to death. Alzheimer's is most prevalent in older people, with the risk of developing the disease doubling every five years after age 65.
The main culprits identified by scient... | true | 2017-05-01 | New ultrasound Alzheimer's treatment to clinical trial in humans by end of 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-05-01 | 2016-11-05 | [] | binary | [["2016-11-05", 0.75], ["2016-11-05", 0.51], ["2016-11-05", 0.485], ["2016-11-05", 0.485], ["2016-11-05", 0.572], ["2016-11-05", 0.572], ["2016-11-06", 0.511], ["2016-11-06", 0.511], ["2016-11-06", 0.517], ["2016-11-07", 0.517], ["2016-11-07", 0.535], ["2016-11-07", 0.559], ["2016-11-07", 0.55], ["2016-11-08", 0.55], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/370/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | For many years, solid metallic hydrogen has been a theoretical substance. It appears that it has been created in the lab for the first time, as reported in this paper.
From the arXiv entry, It is unclear whether this paper is under referee for publication, or where.
Will this paper on solid metallic hydrogen have high ... | true | 2017-01-15 | Solid metallic hydrogen: how much impact? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-04 | 2016-11-05 | [] | binary | [["2016-11-05", 0.275], ["2016-11-05", 0.207], ["2016-11-05", 0.14], ["2016-11-05", 0.165], ["2016-11-06", 0.154], ["2016-11-06", 0.172], ["2016-11-06", 0.198], ["2016-11-06", 0.208], ["2016-11-06", 0.25], ["2016-11-06", 0.281], ["2016-11-06", 0.265], ["2016-11-06", 0.259], ["2016-11-06", 0.269], ["2016-11-07", 0.269],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/371/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Solid metallic hydrogen has apparently been recently created in the lab. If verified, this could be a big deal (see accompanying question on citations), as the substance has been theorized for decades and may have very interesting properties.
Among these, there has been speculation that it may superconduct, and that th... | true | 2017-04-15 | Solid metallic hydrogen: will it superconduct at room temperature? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-12-05 | 2016-11-12 | [] | binary | [["2016-11-14", 0.46], ["2016-11-14", 0.393], ["2016-11-14", 0.393], ["2016-11-14", 0.358], ["2016-11-14", 0.36], ["2016-11-14", 0.4], ["2016-11-14", 0.4], ["2016-11-14", 0.4], ["2016-11-14", 0.369], ["2016-11-14", 0.369], ["2016-11-14", 0.377], ["2016-11-14", 0.365], ["2016-11-14", 0.365], ["2016-11-14", 0.335], ["201... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/374/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On 4 December, Italy will hold a referendum on constitutional reform. Italians are asked to approve the amending of the Italian Constitution to reform the appointment and powers of the Parliament of Italy, as well as the partition of powers of State, Regions, and administrative entities.
Opposition parties, and part of... | true | 2016-12-03 | Will the Italian constitutional referendum pass? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-12-04 | 2016-11-14 | [] | binary | [["2016-11-16", 0.5], ["2016-11-16", 0.567], ["2016-11-16", 0.567], ["2016-11-17", 0.542], ["2016-11-17", 0.542], ["2016-11-17", 0.543], ["2016-11-17", 0.517], ["2016-11-17", 0.532], ["2016-11-17", 0.525], ["2016-11-17", 0.533], ["2016-11-17", 0.559], ["2016-11-19", 0.559], ["2016-11-20", 0.558], ["2016-11-20", 0.555],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/376/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Presidential elections were held in Austria on 24 April 2016, with a second round run-off on 22 May 2016. However, the results of the second round were annulled and a re-vote is due to take place on 4 December 2016.
In the first round of the election, Norbert Hofer of the Freedom Party of Austria received the most vote... | true | 2016-12-04 | Hofer for president in Austria on 4 December? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-09 | 2016-11-14 | [] | binary | [["2016-11-14", 0.82], ["2016-11-15", 0.837], ["2016-11-16", 0.835], ["2016-11-17", 0.801], ["2016-11-17", 0.789], ["2016-11-19", 0.796], ["2016-11-20", 0.796], ["2016-11-20", 0.798], ["2016-11-21", 0.801], ["2016-11-22", 0.795], ["2016-11-23", 0.801], ["2016-11-24", 0.776], ["2016-11-26", 0.781], ["2016-11-27", 0.761]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/377/ | Donald J. Trump is the President-Elect of the U.S., making it extremely likely that he will assume the Presidential office in January 2017.
In addition to the usual mortal risks that might prevent a president from serving the second year of his term, the likelihood of either resignation or impeachment seem somewhat hig... | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve true if Donald J. Trump is the President of the United States on January 1, 2018 | true | 2017-04-01 | Will Donald Trump be the President of the United States on January 1, 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-01-09 | 2016-11-14 | [] | binary | [["2016-11-15", 0.62], ["2016-11-15", 0.62], ["2016-11-16", 0.58], ["2016-11-16", 0.58], ["2016-11-16", 0.538], ["2016-11-16", 0.538], ["2016-11-16", 0.53], ["2016-11-16", 0.537], ["2016-11-16", 0.533], ["2016-11-16", 0.533], ["2016-11-16", 0.529], ["2016-11-16", 0.544], ["2016-11-16", 0.544], ["2016-11-18", 0.552], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/378/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In January 2016, a paper was published in Phys. Rev. Lett. by a group physicists at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, reporting findings from their research on the possible existence of dark photons – a hypothetical elementary particle first proposed in 2008 as a force carrier particle for dark matter.
Not much attent... | true | 2016-12-15 | More attention to potential evidence for a fifth fundamental force? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-03-09 | 2016-11-18 | [] | binary | [["2016-11-20", 0.25], ["2016-11-20", 0.31], ["2016-11-20", 0.343], ["2016-11-20", 0.375], ["2016-11-20", 0.375], ["2016-11-20", 0.375], ["2016-11-20", 0.333], ["2016-11-20", 0.329], ["2016-11-20", 0.329], ["2016-11-21", 0.338], ["2016-11-21", 0.373], ["2016-11-21", 0.38], ["2016-11-21", 0.381], ["2016-11-21", 0.381], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/380/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Founded as an advocacy and educational outreach organization, The Life You Can Save help raise donations where a majority of their received funds goes to some of the world’s best charities for fighting global poverty.
Based on public standard, the organization suggests a minimum donation to charity, which is ~ 1% of on... | true | 2016-12-31 | More "Live(s) you can save" in 2016? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2016-11-22 | [] | binary | [["2016-11-27", 0.2], ["2016-11-27", 0.175], ["2016-11-27", 0.12], ["2016-11-27", 0.097], ["2016-11-27", 0.097], ["2016-11-27", 0.252], ["2016-11-28", 0.258], ["2016-11-28", 0.25], ["2016-11-28", 0.25], ["2016-11-28", 0.247], ["2016-11-28", 0.255], ["2016-11-28", 0.255], ["2016-11-28", 0.242], ["2016-11-28", 0.242], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/383/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | To advance laser physics, European scientists are constructing the Extreme Light Infrastructure (ELI) project, to eventually include four sites and some of the most powerful lasers in the world. Three of the facilities are currently under construction in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Romania, while the fourth site i... | true | 2017-11-15 | Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-12-24 | 2016-11-26 | [] | binary | [["2016-11-26", 0.52], ["2016-11-27", 0.335], ["2016-11-27", 0.315], ["2016-11-27", 0.28], ["2016-11-27", 0.28], ["2016-11-27", 0.22], ["2016-11-27", 0.178], ["2016-11-27", 0.19], ["2016-11-27", 0.194], ["2016-11-27", 0.194], ["2016-11-27", 0.249], ["2016-11-27", 0.256], ["2016-11-27", 0.256], ["2016-11-28", 0.268], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/385/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Launched on Kickstarter, Project Blue is a crowdfunding campaign consists of scientists and experts from various nonprofit organizations and is led by a former NASA astrophysics director and the CEO of the BoldlyGo Institute. The campaign is currently seeking a $1M pledge by Dec 20, 2016, to help build a new space-base... | true | 2016-12-15 | Will the "Project Blue" campaign to kick-start a planet-imaging camera of Alpha Centauri reach its goal on Kickstarter? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-12-14 | 2016-11-28 | [] | binary | [["2016-11-29", 0.25], ["2016-11-29", 0.275], ["2016-11-29", 0.187], ["2016-11-30", 0.308], ["2016-11-30", 0.308], ["2016-11-30", 0.296], ["2016-11-30", 0.19], ["2016-11-30", 0.167], ["2016-11-30", 0.2], ["2016-11-30", 0.2], ["2016-11-30", 0.216], ["2016-11-30", 0.239], ["2016-11-30", 0.245], ["2016-11-30", 0.241], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/386/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | After a contentious U.S. election resulted in the unexpected victory of Donald Trump, various groups have called for a recount of votes in the decisive states. Green party candidate Jill Stein has been joined by Democrat Hillary Clinton in this. It seems a recount in Wisconsin is certain and recounts of Michigan and Pe... | true | 2016-12-06 | Will recounts appreciably change US presidential vote count? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-09-19 | 2016-11-30 | [] | binary | [["2016-12-01", 0.61], ["2016-12-01", 0.497], ["2016-12-01", 0.498], ["2016-12-01", 0.49], ["2016-12-02", 0.49], ["2016-12-03", 0.524], ["2016-12-03", 0.539], ["2016-12-03", 0.558], ["2016-12-04", 0.558], ["2016-12-05", 0.515], ["2016-12-06", 0.515], ["2016-12-06", 0.495], ["2016-12-06", 0.526], ["2016-12-09", 0.526], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/388/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | A key observable (and important effect) of global climate change is the extent of the Arctic ice sheet, which varies seasonally but also has a significant downward secular trend, presumably tied to global temperature increase.
The total extent of the sheet as a function of time is tracked in detail via a combination of... | true | 2017-06-01 | Will 2017 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-12-21 | 2016-11-30 | [] | binary | [["2016-12-01", 0.21], ["2016-12-01", 0.205], ["2016-12-01", 0.24], ["2016-12-01", 0.24], ["2016-12-01", 0.284], ["2016-12-01", 0.263], ["2016-12-01", 0.23], ["2016-12-01", 0.221], ["2016-12-03", 0.221], ["2016-12-03", 0.221], ["2016-12-05", 0.234], ["2016-12-05", 0.222], ["2016-12-06", 0.222], ["2016-12-06", 0.215], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/389/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Ted Koppel, of ABC News and Nightline fame, has been sounding the alarm about the vulnerability of the electrical grids in the U.S. to intentional sabotage.
In his book Lights Out, Koppel argues that the U.S. grid(s) are both so interconnected and so fragile that a well-crafted attack could knock out power for a multi-... | true | 2017-06-01 | Will there be an attack on the electrical grid for a major U.S. city in 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-04-04 | 2016-11-30 | [] | binary | [["2016-12-01", 0.145], ["2016-12-01", 0.181], ["2016-12-02", 0.167], ["2016-12-03", 0.192], ["2016-12-03", 0.237], ["2016-12-05", 0.237], ["2016-12-05", 0.261], ["2016-12-06", 0.262], ["2016-12-07", 0.262], ["2016-12-07", 0.28], ["2016-12-08", 0.27], ["2016-12-12", 0.263], ["2016-12-13", 0.285], ["2016-12-18", 0.28], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/391/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | A major recent advance in genetic engineering has occurred in the past several years with the discovery of CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats), a bacterial DNA sequence that codes for a protein (Cas9) and RNA combination that can locate a specific DNA sequence and splice the DNA strand at... | true | 2017-09-01 | Will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem by April 1, 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-01-03 | 2016-11-30 | [] | binary | [["2018-11-17", 0.1], ["2018-11-17", 0.075], ["2018-11-17", 0.067], ["2018-11-17", 0.163], ["2018-11-17", 0.199], ["2018-11-18", 0.199], ["2018-11-18", 0.222], ["2018-11-19", 0.245], ["2018-11-19", 0.25], ["2018-11-21", 0.293], ["2018-11-21", 0.294], ["2018-11-22", 0.29], ["2018-11-22", 0.296], ["2018-11-23", 0.296], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1567/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | A key observable metric and important effect of global climate change is the extent of the Arctic ice sheet, which varies seasonally but also has a significant downward secular trend, presumably tied to global temperature increase.
The total extent of the sheet as a function of time is tracked in detail via a combinati... | true | 2019-02-13 | Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-03 | 2016-12-02 | [] | binary | [["2016-12-02", 0.33], ["2016-12-02", 0.33], ["2016-12-02", 0.203], ["2016-12-02", 0.203], ["2016-12-02", 0.208], ["2016-12-02", 0.208], ["2016-12-03", 0.202], ["2016-12-03", 0.182], ["2016-12-03", 0.189], ["2016-12-03", 0.269], ["2016-12-03", 0.281], ["2016-12-03", 0.266], ["2016-12-03", 0.266], ["2016-12-03", 0.268],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/392/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In a new preprint, Jahed Abedi, Hannah Dykaar, and Niayesh Afshordi adduce tantalizing evidence for departures from a standard general relativity model of black hole merger dynamics (motivated by the "firewall" and "fuzzball" pictures) in the recent LIGO detection of three events. From their abstract:
It was recently p... | true | 2017-04-15 | Evidence for deviations from canonical black holes from LIGO? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-01-01 | 2016-12-02 | [] | binary | [["2016-12-02", 0.55], ["2016-12-03", 0.483], ["2016-12-03", 0.5], ["2016-12-03", 0.5], ["2016-12-03", 0.43], ["2016-12-03", 0.407], ["2016-12-05", 0.416], ["2016-12-06", 0.42], ["2016-12-06", 0.42], ["2016-12-06", 0.418], ["2016-12-07", 0.472], ["2016-12-07", 0.481], ["2016-12-07", 0.481], ["2016-12-07", 0.486], ["201... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/393/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Before the Apple Watch came the Pebble. The Kickstarter-funded smartwatch communicates with either iOS or Android phones, employs an LCD e-ink screen to minimize power consumption, and retails for a fraction of the cost of Apple's smartwatch. According to one fan, Pebble makes a watch "so good it puts Apple to shame."
... | true | 2016-12-20 | A complete buyout of Pebble by Fitbit by end of year? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-02-04 | 2016-12-02 | [] | binary | [["2016-12-02", 0.4], ["2016-12-02", 0.347], ["2016-12-02", 0.347], ["2016-12-02", 0.4], ["2016-12-03", 0.438], ["2016-12-03", 0.43], ["2016-12-03", 0.44], ["2016-12-05", 0.445], ["2016-12-06", 0.445], ["2016-12-06", 0.421], ["2016-12-06", 0.421], ["2016-12-06", 0.421], ["2016-12-07", 0.395], ["2016-12-12", 0.395], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/394/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Flu vaccines can protect against one of the two villains of cold and flu season, but the diversity of viruses that cause common colds makes a vaccine for the ailment elusive.
Three major groups of viruses cause most common cold cases: Rhinoviruses, Coronaviruses, and respiratory syncytial virus, often called RSV. The I... | true | 2017-05-15 | At last? Clinical trials of a vaccine for the common cold? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-19 | 2016-12-09 | [] | binary | [["2017-01-05", 0.38], ["2017-01-13", 0.492], ["2017-01-21", 0.494], ["2017-01-25", 0.494], ["2017-02-01", 0.505], ["2017-02-09", 0.542], ["2017-02-15", 0.536], ["2017-02-18", 0.526], ["2017-03-01", 0.527], ["2017-03-09", 0.536], ["2017-03-15", 0.554], ["2017-03-21", 0.556], ["2017-04-01", 0.556], ["2017-04-01", 0.559]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/395/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The possibility of cultured meat, in which tissue is grown outside of a live animal in order to provide the flavor and nutrition of meat without animal suffering, has been heating up recently.
Cultured meat is certainly possible, and production costs have fallen since the first demonstration in 2013, from $330,000/poun... | true | 2019-01-01 | A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-03-09 | 2016-12-13 | [] | binary | [["2016-12-14", 0.05], ["2016-12-14", 0.2], ["2016-12-15", 0.2], ["2016-12-15", 0.277], ["2016-12-16", 0.295], ["2016-12-16", 0.268], ["2016-12-18", 0.267], ["2016-12-18", 0.267], ["2016-12-18", 0.253], ["2016-12-19", 0.262], ["2016-12-19", 0.242], ["2016-12-20", 0.259], ["2016-12-20", 0.259], ["2016-12-21", 0.259], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/398/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Scheduled for release in March 2017, it was indicated from patents filed by Nintendo that the Nintendo Switch will have "standard" gaming features like the touchscreen, compass, GPS, motion tracking, image recognition, and image projection.
In the series of patents filed, most of the patents' functionality have been de... | true | 2017-02-01 | Image projection patent implemented in the new Nintendo Switch? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-03 | 2016-12-13 | [] | binary | [["2016-12-13", 0.25], ["2016-12-13", 0.097], ["2016-12-14", 0.098], ["2016-12-14", 0.092], ["2016-12-14", 0.117], ["2016-12-14", 0.117], ["2016-12-15", 0.125], ["2016-12-15", 0.125], ["2016-12-15", 0.147], ["2016-12-15", 0.175], ["2016-12-16", 0.164], ["2016-12-16", 0.164], ["2016-12-18", 0.158], ["2016-12-19", 0.194]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/399/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | We've had a number of questions concerning self-driving cars. But many of the tricky part of self-driving cars are eliminated if you can do away with the roads, lights, pedestrians, other cars, etc. – That is: fly!
To fight against city congestion, Airbus Group and A3 teamed up to develop project Vahana. Officially sta... | true | 2017-07-15 | Prototype self-flying taxi in 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
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