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2019-02-01 | 2018-01-23 | [] | binary | [["2018-01-27", 0.3], ["2018-01-27", 0.2], ["2018-01-27", 0.2], ["2018-01-27", 0.198], ["2018-01-27", 0.198], ["2018-01-27", 0.198], ["2018-01-27", 0.229], ["2018-01-28", 0.254], ["2018-01-28", 0.287], ["2018-01-28", 0.301], ["2018-01-29", 0.301], ["2018-01-29", 0.312], ["2018-01-29", 0.325], ["2018-01-29", 0.337], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/620/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | During 2017, various political developments surrounding the U.S. Executive Branch generated a fair number of weird and frankly jaw-dropping news stories. The drumbeat of news that would have seemed outrageous just a year or so ago may have had a hand in lowering the bar for outre items in the venerable Gray Lady.
In De... | true | 2018-03-01 | Another NYT News Story about U.F.O.s this Year? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-02-03 | 2018-01-24 | [] | binary | [["2018-01-26", 0.4], ["2018-01-29", 0.471], ["2018-02-01", 0.485], ["2018-02-03", 0.483], ["2018-02-07", 0.502], ["2018-02-08", 0.502], ["2018-02-11", 0.509], ["2018-02-12", 0.508], ["2018-02-15", 0.513], ["2018-02-18", 0.51], ["2018-03-08", 0.51], ["2018-03-12", 0.509], ["2018-04-03", 0.504], ["2018-04-05", 0.506], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/621/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Astronomers sometimes write scientific papers that draw on extraterrestrial intelligence as an agent of explanation for celestial phenomena that are either novel or not immediately understandable. Moreover, when such hypotheses are invoked, they often gain considerable media focus. In contrast, similarly effective peer... | true | 2018-12-31 | A NYT article this year that discusses aliens as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-02-06 | 2018-01-26 | [] | binary | [["2018-01-27", 0.37], ["2018-01-27", 0.435], ["2018-01-27", 0.53], ["2018-01-27", 0.562], ["2018-01-27", 0.562], ["2018-01-27", 0.572], ["2018-01-27", 0.594], ["2018-01-27", 0.573], ["2018-01-27", 0.576], ["2018-01-27", 0.576], ["2018-01-28", 0.582], ["2018-01-28", 0.582], ["2018-01-28", 0.616], ["2018-01-29", 0.606],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/632/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | SpaceX is preparing for the first test launch of their new large rocket, the Falcon 9 Heavy. The launch attempt may take place as early as February 6, 2018. The intended payload is a Tesla roadster, being launched on a trajectory towards Mars.
Will the launch succeed?
To be counted a success, the payload must be launch... | true | 2018-02-06 | Will the first SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy launch succeed? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-07-05 | 2018-01-28 | [] | binary | [["2018-01-31", 0.4], ["2018-01-31", 0.365], ["2018-01-31", 0.372], ["2018-01-31", 0.372], ["2018-01-31", 0.23], ["2018-01-31", 0.23], ["2018-01-31", 0.264], ["2018-02-01", 0.264], ["2018-02-01", 0.249], ["2018-02-01", 0.237], ["2018-02-01", 0.289], ["2018-02-01", 0.296], ["2018-02-01", 0.308], ["2018-02-01", 0.308], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/633/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | As Mueller's investigation into Russia's role in the 2016 election continues, discussion has begun as to whether Trump himself will testify under oath.
President Donald Trump declared on Wednesday 1/24/2018 that he’s “looking forward” to being questioned — under oath — in the special counsel’s probe of Russian election... | true | 2018-04-04 | Will Donald Trump submit to questioning as part of Mueller's investigation? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-08-21 | 2018-02-01 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-04", 0.1], ["2018-02-06", 0.183], ["2018-02-08", 0.164], ["2018-02-11", 0.164], ["2018-02-13", 0.187], ["2018-02-15", 0.186], ["2018-02-19", 0.184], ["2018-02-25", 0.181], ["2018-02-27", 0.181], ["2018-03-02", 0.179], ["2018-03-03", 0.175], ["2018-03-05", 0.176], ["2018-03-07", 0.173], ["2018-03-10", 0.173],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/634/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | It was reported early in 2018 that Oprah Winfrey was the bookmakers second favourite to win the presidency in 2020, and polling suggests that she could have an advantage against Trump in a hypothetical match-up
However, Oprah has stated that she does not intend to run for the presidency. This question asks:
Will she ch... | true | 2018-09-30 | Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-03-02 | 2018-02-01 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-05", 0.7], ["2018-02-05", 0.7], ["2018-02-05", 0.65], ["2018-02-05", 0.565], ["2018-02-05", 0.565], ["2018-02-05", 0.595], ["2018-02-05", 0.595], ["2018-02-05", 0.595], ["2018-02-05", 0.622], ["2018-02-06", 0.627], ["2018-02-06", 0.634], ["2018-02-06", 0.645], ["2018-02-06", 0.657], ["2018-02-06", 0.657], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/635/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | As reported by the New York Times, this flu season has been especially brutal and is “now on track to equal or surpass that of the 2014-2015 flu season.” which itself saw 34 million sickened and 710,000 hospitalized.
The main culprit this year has been the H3N2 virus—the deadliest of the seasonal strains—but it’s been ... | true | 2018-03-04 | Will this flu season be worse than the 2014 - 2015 season? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-12-31 | 2018-02-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-05", 0.39], ["2018-02-05", 0.21], ["2018-02-05", 0.243], ["2018-02-05", 0.233], ["2018-02-05", 0.233], ["2018-02-05", 0.198], ["2018-02-05", 0.198], ["2018-02-05", 0.168], ["2018-02-05", 0.148], ["2018-02-05", 0.149], ["2018-02-05", 0.149], ["2018-02-05", 0.186], ["2018-02-06", 0.168], ["2018-02-06", 0.168],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/636/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Cryptocurrency initial coin offerings (ICOs) have become increasingly popular in 2016 and 2017, growing by a factor of 100 during 2017 with about $3B raised in total in 2017's 4th quarter. This is still relatively small compared to ~$20B in 3rd quarter venture capital raises in 2017, but the proportion is rapidly risin... | true | 2018-03-15 | Will there be a Metaculus ICO this year? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-04-02 | 2018-02-04 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-06", 0.67], ["2018-02-06", 0.67], ["2018-02-06", 0.625], ["2018-02-06", 0.615], ["2018-02-06", 0.682], ["2018-02-06", 0.682], ["2018-02-06", 0.693], ["2018-02-06", 0.735], ["2018-02-07", 0.735], ["2018-02-07", 0.733], ["2018-02-07", 0.74], ["2018-02-07", 0.74], ["2018-02-07", 0.755], ["2018-02-07", 0.755], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/638/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In the ongoing investigation by Mueller at the FBI regarding Russia's role in the 2016 presidential election, Rod Rosenstein is a key figure. Given Jeff Session's recusal in the case, Rosenstein as acting AG is formally legally the highest official in the investigation, and the only individual currently with direct leg... | true | 2018-03-01 | Will Rosenstein still be the top official in charge of the Trump/Russia/Mueller investigation on April 1, 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-01-03 | 2018-02-07 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-10", 0.175], ["2018-02-10", 0.175], ["2018-02-10", 0.22], ["2018-02-10", 0.22], ["2018-02-10", 0.225], ["2018-02-10", 0.264], ["2018-02-10", 0.264], ["2018-02-10", 0.266], ["2018-02-10", 0.266], ["2018-02-11", 0.264], ["2018-02-11", 0.261], ["2018-02-11", 0.297], ["2018-02-11", 0.319], ["2018-02-11", 0.343],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/642/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | US recessions matter for investors because the dips in the market caused by recessions can cause years of flat profits. Pulling out right before a recession and jumping in at the bottom of a recession can result in significant gains.
Various indices exist to attempt to predict when a recession will hit the US.
One exam... | true | 2018-04-01 | Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-29 | 2018-02-09 | [] | binary | [["2018-11-26", 0.66], ["2018-11-26", 0.645], ["2018-11-27", 0.562], ["2018-11-27", 0.556], ["2018-11-27", 0.492], ["2018-11-28", 0.493], ["2018-11-28", 0.479], ["2018-11-29", 0.472], ["2018-11-29", 0.48], ["2018-11-30", 0.465], ["2018-12-01", 0.465], ["2018-12-01", 0.465], ["2018-12-02", 0.47], ["2018-12-04", 0.47], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1597/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the "fear gauge". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&P 500 stock index option prices.
To rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corre... | true | 2019-08-01 | Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2018-02-13 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Vulcan_launches"] | binary | [["2018-02-17", 0.05], ["2018-02-20", 0.221], ["2018-02-22", 0.221], ["2018-02-24", 0.225], ["2018-02-27", 0.224], ["2018-03-02", 0.221], ["2018-03-12", 0.221], ["2018-03-12", 0.227], ["2018-03-17", 0.224], ["2018-03-22", 0.224], ["2018-03-25", 0.205], ["2018-03-27", 0.206], ["2018-04-01", 0.199], ["2018-04-05", 0.195]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/645/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with on twitter, upon the suggestion that United Launch Alliance (ULA)'s upcoming "Vulcan" rocket would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:
Maybe that plan works... | true | 2019-05-01 | Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?) | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2018-02-13 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-17", 0.02], ["2018-02-18", 0.306], ["2018-02-19", 0.252], ["2018-02-20", 0.25], ["2018-02-21", 0.232], ["2018-02-22", 0.228], ["2018-02-23", 0.221], ["2018-03-02", 0.219], ["2018-03-03", 0.226], ["2018-03-05", 0.226], ["2018-03-06", 0.226], ["2018-03-07", 0.232], ["2018-03-10", 0.232], ["2018-03-12", 0.276],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/646/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | With the launching of Falcon Heavy, SpaceX passed a major milestone; yet an even bigger milestone would be bringing a human into space, something SpaceX is yet to do.
The Dragon V2, SpaceX's first crewed spacecraft, is still in development and an uncrewed test-flight is scheduled for August 2018; the first manned fligh... | true | 2018-07-21 | Attempted crewed SpaceX flight in 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-08-02 | 2018-02-14 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-17", 0.03], ["2018-02-22", 0.096], ["2018-02-27", 0.094], ["2018-03-06", 0.094], ["2018-03-12", 0.084], ["2018-03-17", 0.092], ["2018-03-20", 0.088], ["2018-03-26", 0.084], ["2018-03-28", 0.082], ["2018-04-01", 0.087], ["2018-04-05", 0.108], ["2018-04-09", 0.109], ["2018-04-14", 0.108], ["2018-04-20", 0.107]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/647/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | It was previously asked whether or not SpaceX's first crewed flight would take place in 2018, yet a more interesting question in the scheme of things would be whether or not that first flight goes terribly wrong.
Even if SpaceX's first crewed flight is delayed by one or two years, that will probably not have all to gre... | true | 2019-07-21 | Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-08-02 | 2018-02-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-19", 0.4], ["2018-02-19", 0.47], ["2018-02-19", 0.513], ["2018-02-19", 0.498], ["2018-02-19", 0.448], ["2018-02-20", 0.473], ["2018-02-20", 0.491], ["2018-02-20", 0.493], ["2018-02-21", 0.493], ["2018-02-21", 0.475], ["2018-02-22", 0.465], ["2018-02-22", 0.503], ["2018-02-22", 0.48], ["2018-02-22", 0.503], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/651/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | We are getting close to having a single company be worth more that 1 trillion dollars. Apple's market cap has already closed over $900 billion before, and the company is the most likely candidate to be the world's first trillion-dollar company.
It is simply asked:
Will, within the year 2018, a company that is part of t... | true | 2018-04-01 | A Trillion Dollar company by the end of 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-12-31 | 2018-02-17 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-19", 0.66], ["2018-02-19", 0.587], ["2018-02-19", 0.67], ["2018-02-19", 0.671], ["2018-02-19", 0.66], ["2018-02-19", 0.651], ["2018-02-20", 0.651], ["2018-02-20", 0.636], ["2018-02-20", 0.639], ["2018-02-20", 0.648], ["2018-02-20", 0.652], ["2018-02-20", 0.652], ["2018-02-21", 0.646], ["2018-02-21", 0.648], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/652/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Over the last year the popularity of Bitcoin, and various other cryptocurrencies, rose dramatically. One factor that is sometimes overlooked, though, is the huge energy consumption that bitcoin mining - according to its current algorithmic structure - necessarily entails.
Digiconomist has done a good job tracking the a... | true | 2018-04-01 | Will Bitcoin's energy consumption double again? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-10-06 | 2018-02-19 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-22", 0.5], ["2018-02-22", 0.425], ["2018-02-22", 0.533], ["2018-02-22", 0.51], ["2018-02-22", 0.458], ["2018-02-22", 0.458], ["2018-02-22", 0.465], ["2018-02-23", 0.454], ["2018-02-23", 0.422], ["2018-02-23", 0.413], ["2018-02-23", 0.417], ["2018-02-24", 0.417], ["2018-02-24", 0.402], ["2018-02-25", 0.402], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/654/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Cryptocurrency initial coin offerings (ICOs) have become increasingly popular in 2016 and 2017, growing by a factor of 100 during 2017 with about $3B raised in total in 2017's 4th quarter. This is still relatively small compared to ~$20B in 3rd quarter venture capital raises in 2017, but the proportion is rapidly risin... | true | 2018-07-01 | Will the SEC release new rules governing ICOs by October 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-08-03 | 2018-02-21 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-24", 0.825], ["2018-02-25", 0.802], ["2018-02-25", 0.806], ["2018-02-25", 0.772], ["2018-02-25", 0.773], ["2018-02-25", 0.785], ["2018-02-26", 0.785], ["2018-02-26", 0.79], ["2018-02-27", 0.791], ["2018-02-27", 0.764], ["2018-02-27", 0.758], ["2018-02-27", 0.755], ["2018-02-28", 0.758], ["2018-02-28", 0.76],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/657/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | While most attention regard "budget" spaceflight has been focused on Elon Musk and other commercial spacecraft enterprises, with their re-use technologies, there is another player in the "low"-cost space race: India.
By keeping their engineering teams and supply chain local to India and taking advantage of inexpensive ... | true | 2018-03-30 | Will India land on the Moon by August 1, 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-03 | 2018-02-23 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-26", 0.2], ["2018-02-27", 0.144], ["2018-02-28", 0.241], ["2018-02-28", 0.237], ["2018-03-02", 0.209], ["2018-03-02", 0.19], ["2018-03-03", 0.203], ["2018-03-04", 0.203], ["2018-03-05", 0.209], ["2018-03-12", 0.209], ["2018-03-12", 0.211], ["2018-03-15", 0.211], ["2018-03-16", 0.223], ["2018-03-22", 0.215], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/659/ | A 2014 paper by Shawn Bayern suggested the possibility that an algorithm, rather than a person, could apparently legally manage a US LLC. From that paper:
As a result, autonomous systems may end up being able, at least, to emulate many of the private-law rights of legal persons. This essay demonstrates a technique by w... | Economics & Business | By 2021 will there be a case filed in a US court addressing a US LLC and alleging that the LLC is not managed by a human?
For positive resolution it must be possible to access the case docket on some major legal database, and it should be arguable that the judgement in the case could impact the legality of having a non... | true | 2018-10-01 | By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-22 | 2018-02-24 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-27", 0.35], ["2018-03-01", 0.202], ["2018-03-03", 0.118], ["2018-03-05", 0.099], ["2018-03-06", 0.101], ["2018-03-07", 0.101], ["2018-03-09", 0.098], ["2018-03-11", 0.1], ["2018-03-13", 0.098], ["2018-03-15", 0.098], ["2018-03-18", 0.087], ["2018-03-20", 0.086], ["2018-03-21", 0.083], ["2018-03-23", 0.076], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/660/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Despite the unbelievable level of evidence available, and the fact that anyone with a well and a stick can prove that the Earth is round, belief in various forms of Flat-Eartherism is on the rise. Newsweek reported in November 2017 that “Starting in mid-2017, a string of news stories propelled the flat-Earth movement’s... | true | 2018-11-06 | By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-04 | 2018-02-24 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-27", 0.32], ["2018-02-28", 0.313], ["2018-03-02", 0.305], ["2018-03-02", 0.383], ["2018-03-03", 0.383], ["2018-03-04", 0.383], ["2018-03-06", 0.387], ["2018-03-12", 0.379], ["2018-03-16", 0.379], ["2018-03-18", 0.369], ["2018-03-21", 0.371], ["2018-03-22", 0.371], ["2018-03-23", 0.371], ["2018-03-25", 0.391]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/661/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Beginning in the early 1980’s, following government advice, Americans began to eat more carbohydrate and cut back on fatty foods.
This massive change correlated with an explosion of twin epidemics of obesity and type 2 diabetes.
Critics of these guidelines, such as journalists Gary Taubes and Nina Teicholz, have argued... | true | 2019-01-01 | Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-03 | 2018-02-24 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-27", 0.45], ["2018-02-27", 0.45], ["2018-02-28", 0.45], ["2018-02-28", 0.522], ["2018-02-28", 0.522], ["2018-02-28", 0.526], ["2018-02-28", 0.526], ["2018-03-01", 0.531], ["2018-03-01", 0.537], ["2018-03-02", 0.553], ["2018-03-02", 0.552], ["2018-03-02", 0.552], ["2018-03-02", 0.528], ["2018-03-02", 0.544], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/662/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | NASA plans to launch its Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) in the middle of the next decade. Per the agency, the purpose is “to settle essential questions in the areas of dark energy, exoplanets, and infrared astrophysics.” Among other things, the observatory will “have a field of view that is 100 times gre... | true | 2018-05-01 | Will NASA’s WFIRST still be funded as of the 2018 mid-term elections? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-12-05 | 2018-02-24 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-27", 0.83], ["2018-02-27", 0.83], ["2018-02-27", 0.434], ["2018-02-28", 0.405], ["2018-02-28", 0.416], ["2018-02-28", 0.372], ["2018-02-28", 0.386], ["2018-02-28", 0.368], ["2018-03-01", 0.347], ["2018-03-02", 0.334], ["2018-03-02", 0.366], ["2018-03-02", 0.369], ["2018-03-02", 0.366], ["2018-03-03", 0.37], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/663/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | For decades, tech enthusiasts have hoped that breakthroughs in quantum computing would allow us to do wonderful things, such as:
“[disrupt the] financial, pharmaceutical, and security industries”
“transform our machine learning and artificial intelligence capabilities”
(“hugely reduce the time and cost of… calculations... | true | 2018-06-01 | Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-05-23 | 2018-02-24 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-27", 0.8], ["2018-03-02", 0.704], ["2018-03-06", 0.657], ["2018-03-08", 0.65], ["2018-03-12", 0.68], ["2018-03-16", 0.68], ["2018-03-19", 0.672], ["2018-03-22", 0.683], ["2018-03-26", 0.685], ["2018-03-29", 0.685], ["2018-04-01", 0.696], ["2018-04-05", 0.696], ["2018-04-08", 0.697], ["2018-04-14", 0.7], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/664/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In November 2016, SpaceX filed an application with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for a license to use portions of telecommunications frequencies to communicate with a network of satellites that would bring internet coverage to every point on the planet, no matter how remote. Named Starlink (thankfull... | true | 2019-06-01 | Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-04-17 | 2018-02-25 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-02", 0.32], ["2018-03-02", 0.655], ["2018-03-02", 0.51], ["2018-03-02", 0.468], ["2018-03-03", 0.468], ["2018-03-03", 0.47], ["2018-03-03", 0.474], ["2018-03-03", 0.474], ["2018-03-04", 0.48], ["2018-03-04", 0.48], ["2018-03-04", 0.48], ["2018-03-04", 0.48], ["2018-03-04", 0.47], ["2018-03-05", 0.473], ["201... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/666/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Other | Disclaimer: This question is a bit experimental, but might be quite interesting.
One of the most interesting things you notice when predicting on Metaculus is that any arbitrary event a priori is less likely to happen than not and less likely to happen than most people think (this is why the Metaculus prediction tends ... | true | 2018-04-15 | Will a question of unknown nature resolve positive? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-10-07 | 2018-02-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-02", 0.01], ["2018-03-02", 0.01], ["2018-03-02", 0.1], ["2018-03-03", 0.234], ["2018-03-03", 0.252], ["2018-03-04", 0.245], ["2018-03-04", 0.245], ["2018-03-04", 0.259], ["2018-03-04", 0.291], ["2018-03-06", 0.291], ["2018-03-07", 0.295], ["2018-03-07", 0.288], ["2018-03-07", 0.263], ["2018-03-08", 0.252], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/667/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | (note: experimental question)
Cryptocurrency initial coin offerings (ICOs) have become increasingly popular in 2016 and 2017, growing by a factor of 100 during 2017 with about $3B raised in total in 2017's 4th quarter. This is still relatively small compared to ~$20B in 3rd quarter venture capital raises in 2017, but t... | true | 2018-05-15 | Will the ICO industry still be growing in May 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-11-28 | 2018-03-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-05", 0.48], ["2018-03-08", 0.642], ["2018-03-09", 0.641], ["2018-03-11", 0.647], ["2018-03-13", 0.646], ["2018-03-16", 0.663], ["2018-03-17", 0.658], ["2018-03-19", 0.658], ["2018-03-22", 0.658], ["2018-03-23", 0.664], ["2018-03-25", 0.658], ["2018-03-26", 0.653], ["2018-03-27", 0.651], ["2018-03-29", 0.653]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/670/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | 27 year old chess prodigy, Magnus Carlsen, has dominated top level tournament chess over the past several years. Notably, he's also racked up amazing results in blitz, defeating American Hikaru Nakamura in Chess.com's 2017-2018 blitz tournament as well as in February's FischerRandom test.
In November 2018, though, Magn... | true | 2018-10-31 | Will Magnus Carlsen retain his title of world chess champion this November? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-19 | 2018-03-03 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-06", 0.33], ["2018-03-10", 0.286], ["2018-03-14", 0.325], ["2018-03-16", 0.331], ["2018-03-22", 0.316], ["2018-03-25", 0.315], ["2018-03-30", 0.315], ["2018-04-05", 0.32], ["2018-04-08", 0.326], ["2018-04-20", 0.322], ["2018-04-21", 0.321], ["2018-04-26", 0.316], ["2018-04-28", 0.314], ["2018-05-01", 0.328],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/671/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Materials scientists do some astonishing work. Behold titanium foam, aerogel, a.k.a. "frozen smoke", and multiferroics.
But no material is cooler than tantalum hafnium carbide. To be more precise, no other material currently engineered can stay "cool" (that is, solid) at temperatures approaching 4200 K. For reference, ... | true | 2019-09-15 | Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-11-08 | 2018-03-05 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-22", 0.575], ["2018-04-24", 0.671], ["2018-04-26", 0.684], ["2018-04-27", 0.669], ["2018-04-28", 0.672], ["2018-04-30", 0.667], ["2018-05-01", 0.658], ["2018-05-03", 0.657], ["2018-05-04", 0.663], ["2018-05-05", 0.668], ["2018-05-07", 0.671], ["2018-05-08", 0.676], ["2018-05-09", 0.676], ["2018-05-11", 0.676... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/672/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In 2016, Republicans controlled the house of representatives with 241 seats versus democrat's 194. No third party candidates won any seats. Republicans have controlled the house since 2010, under the Obama administration. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the... | true | 2018-11-05 | Will Democrats win control of the US House of Representatives in 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-06-12 | 2018-03-09 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-09", 0.21], ["2018-03-10", 0.581], ["2018-03-10", 0.697], ["2018-03-11", 0.645], ["2018-03-11", 0.646], ["2018-03-12", 0.644], ["2018-03-12", 0.619], ["2018-03-13", 0.608], ["2018-03-14", 0.607], ["2018-03-14", 0.599], ["2018-03-15", 0.609], ["2018-03-15", 0.609], ["2018-03-16", 0.629], ["2018-03-16", 0.644]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/677/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | It was recently announced that Jong Un offered, and Trump accepted the offer, to meet in person.
Will it happen by end of 2018?
Resolution is positive if prior to Jan 1, 2019, Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un come to occupy the same physical space so that they can see and hear each other through direct un-intermediated exc... | true | 2018-05-01 | Will Trump and Kim Jong Un actually meet? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-01-02 | 2018-03-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-20", 0.4], ["2018-03-20", 0.35], ["2018-03-20", 0.38], ["2018-03-21", 0.38], ["2018-03-21", 0.384], ["2018-03-21", 0.398], ["2018-03-21", 0.391], ["2018-03-23", 0.399], ["2018-03-24", 0.399], ["2018-03-25", 0.399], ["2018-03-26", 0.35], ["2018-03-27", 0.35], ["2018-03-27", 0.362], ["2018-03-27", 0.362], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/687/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | One of the most important projects of the Michel Temer's presidency of Brazil is approving a Social Security Reform.
The reform is unpopular, and according to Forbes "there have been doubts on whether it will be implemented".
It has to be taken in consideration that, in the context of the current federal intervention, ... | true | 2018-05-01 | Will Temer's Social Security Reform be approved? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-09-01 | 2018-03-19 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-30", 0.2], ["2018-03-31", 0.118], ["2018-04-01", 0.134], ["2018-04-02", 0.134], ["2018-04-03", 0.141], ["2018-04-04", 0.135], ["2018-04-05", 0.146], ["2018-04-06", 0.138], ["2018-04-07", 0.138], ["2018-04-08", 0.141], ["2018-04-09", 0.14], ["2018-04-10", 0.134], ["2018-04-12", 0.131], ["2018-04-13", 0.135], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/705/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
A “significant leadership disruption” includes confirmed reports that the leader: has resigned; has formally left office; has been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days; has fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more con... | true | 2018-08-31 | Will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan experience a significant leadership disruption by 31 August 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-09-09 | 2018-03-19 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-31", 0.12], ["2018-04-01", 0.149], ["2018-04-02", 0.169], ["2018-04-02", 0.159], ["2018-04-04", 0.182], ["2018-04-05", 0.19], ["2018-04-05", 0.192], ["2018-04-07", 0.203], ["2018-04-09", 0.201], ["2018-04-10", 0.2], ["2018-04-12", 0.2], ["2018-04-14", 0.205], ["2018-04-16", 0.202], ["2018-04-17", 0.202], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/710/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge. See related news item.
Articles 4 and 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty (underlying NATO) describe the conditions under which NATO should either "consult," or consider itself attacked, upon attack on a member country.
Article 4 was invoked by Turkey ... | true | 2018-09-07 | Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-04-10 | 2018-03-20 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-20", 0.4], ["2018-03-20", 0.55], ["2018-03-21", 0.383], ["2018-03-21", 0.368], ["2018-03-21", 0.36], ["2018-03-21", 0.36], ["2018-03-21", 0.327], ["2018-03-21", 0.327], ["2018-03-21", 0.353], ["2018-03-21", 0.312], ["2018-03-21", 0.368], ["2018-03-21", 0.358], ["2018-03-22", 0.351], ["2018-03-22", 0.33], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/717/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Facebook has been embroiled in mounting controversy concerning its role in the 2016 US election. Beyond widespread reports of Russian disinformation campaigns, more recently it has come to light that Cambridge Analytica, a key part of the Trump campaign, harvested large amount of user data from Facebook in violation of... | true | 2018-04-03 | Will Mark Zuckerberg appear before congress prior to April 17? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-08-19 | 2018-03-25 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-28", 0.45], ["2018-04-01", 0.311], ["2018-04-05", 0.33], ["2018-04-08", 0.33], ["2018-04-16", 0.336], ["2018-04-17", 0.325], ["2018-04-23", 0.341], ["2018-04-26", 0.342], ["2018-04-30", 0.342], ["2018-05-04", 0.342], ["2018-05-09", 0.343], ["2018-05-12", 0.346], ["2018-05-15", 0.351], ["2018-05-18", 0.349], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/734/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | According the this article in The Atlantic, the U.S. Census Bureau defines the Baby Boomer generation as people born between 1946 and 1964.
Even though that time bracket spans less than 18 years, a Baby Boomer has been included as a Presidential nominee on either the Democrat or Republican ticket every year since 1992.... | true | 2020-02-01 | Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-06-05 | 2018-03-28 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-11", 0.24], ["2018-04-11", 0.37], ["2018-04-11", 0.144], ["2018-04-12", 0.197], ["2018-04-13", 0.216], ["2018-04-13", 0.224], ["2018-04-14", 0.251], ["2018-04-14", 0.268], ["2018-04-14", 0.266], ["2018-04-15", 0.273], ["2018-04-15", 0.268], ["2018-04-16", 0.277], ["2018-04-17", 0.277], ["2018-04-17", 0.275],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/744/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
The disease must have been contracted in the country of interest for this question to resolve as "yes." Imported cases (e.g., where the patient traveled to an endemic country, contracted the disease, and brought it home) do not meet the resolution... | true | 2018-05-31 | Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Singapore between 1 April 2018 and 31 May 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-23 | 2018-03-29 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-01", 0.1], ["2018-04-03", 0.056], ["2018-04-06", 0.05], ["2018-04-08", 0.046], ["2018-04-10", 0.046], ["2018-04-12", 0.044], ["2018-04-15", 0.043], ["2018-04-18", 0.042], ["2018-04-21", 0.041], ["2018-04-23", 0.038], ["2018-04-26", 0.036], ["2018-04-28", 0.036], ["2018-04-29", 0.035], ["2018-05-01", 0.034], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/750/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Ever-heightening rhetoric on both the North Korean and US side is creating a dangerous situation in North Korea, with both sides flat-out threatening to obliterate the other last year.
There has been some potential movement in the (surprising) acceptance by Trump of an offer to meet with Kim Jong Un.
On the other hand,... | true | 2018-12-15 | Will the US launch a nuclear first-strike on N. Korea in 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-06-08 | 2018-03-30 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-08", 0.8], ["2018-04-08", 0.7], ["2018-04-08", 0.683], ["2018-04-08", 0.683], ["2018-04-08", 0.674], ["2018-04-09", 0.674], ["2018-04-09", 0.674], ["2018-04-09", 0.674], ["2018-04-10", 0.659], ["2018-04-10", 0.642], ["2018-04-10", 0.642], ["2018-04-10", 0.635], ["2018-04-11", 0.658], ["2018-04-11", 0.655], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/752/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The next Ontario Provincial elections will elect members of the Ontario Legislative Assembly, the parliament of Ontario, on June 7th, 2018.
Ontario is divided into a series of 124 ridings. Each riding will elect a member of provincial parliament to represent itself using first past the post voting. The party that contr... | true | 2018-06-06 | Will Doug Ford be elected Premier of Ontario? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-19 | 2018-04-14 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-15", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.324], ["2018-04-22", 0.334], ["2018-04-24", 0.335], ["2018-04-28", 0.327], ["2018-05-01", 0.317], ["2018-05-04", 0.326], ["2018-05-09", 0.328], ["2018-05-11", 0.322], ["2018-05-14", 0.321], ["2018-05-17", 0.315], ["2018-05-19", 0.314], ["2018-05-23", 0.314], ["2018-05-26", 0.319]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/796/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Democrats are cautiously optimistic about their chances in the mid term elections this November. They have a durable 6 (or so) point advantage in polling, at least as of late March according to 538.
And a recent win in a special election in Pennsylvania--in a district won convincingly by Trump in 2016--suggests that th... | true | 2019-03-15 | Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-05-02 | 2018-04-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-17", 0.51], ["2018-04-17", 0.493], ["2018-04-17", 0.47], ["2018-04-17", 0.44], ["2018-04-17", 0.388], ["2018-04-17", 0.422], ["2018-04-17", 0.422], ["2018-04-17", 0.408], ["2018-04-17", 0.438], ["2018-04-17", 0.437], ["2018-04-17", 0.447], ["2018-04-17", 0.462], ["2018-04-18", 0.462], ["2018-04-18", 0.459], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/800/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Spring is here, which means it is time to start planning May Day celebrations. For many, May Day is a time to celebrate the end of winter and ugly weather, and to dance around a pole with colorful ribbon. To others, May Day is better known as International Workers' Day, a day to fight for workers' rights and, often, re... | true | 2018-05-01 | Will May Day protests turn violent? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-01-04 | 2018-04-17 | [] | binary | [["2020-05-07", 0.61], ["2020-05-07", 0.52], ["2020-05-07", 0.422], ["2020-05-07", 0.422], ["2020-05-07", 0.397], ["2020-05-08", 0.396], ["2020-05-08", 0.395], ["2020-05-08", 0.381], ["2020-05-09", 0.381], ["2020-05-09", 0.378], ["2020-05-09", 0.382], ["2020-05-09", 0.385], ["2020-05-09", 0.376], ["2020-05-10", 0.378],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/804/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Other | It was previously asked whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive. The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question wa... | true | 2021-12-24 | Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-12 | 2018-04-18 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-21", 0.2], ["2018-04-23", 0.525], ["2018-04-24", 0.547], ["2018-04-26", 0.554], ["2018-04-27", 0.559], ["2018-04-29", 0.561], ["2018-04-30", 0.573], ["2018-05-02", 0.568], ["2018-05-03", 0.564], ["2018-05-05", 0.565], ["2018-05-06", 0.57], ["2018-05-08", 0.571], ["2018-05-09", 0.573], ["2018-05-11", 0.564], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/809/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | For the purposes of this question, we'll confine Trump's "inner circle" to the following people:
Donald Trump himself
Donald Trump Junior
Ivanka Trump
Jared Kushner
Mike Pence
Michael Cohen
John Kelly
Hope Hicks
Steve Bannon
Note #1: Links go to articles related to potential criminal charges against individuals.
Note #... | true | 2023-01-01 | Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-12-31 | 2018-04-22 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-22", 0.3], ["2018-04-22", 0.367], ["2018-04-22", 0.325], ["2018-04-23", 0.356], ["2018-04-23", 0.356], ["2018-04-23", 0.399], ["2018-04-23", 0.464], ["2018-04-23", 0.454], ["2018-04-23", 0.454], ["2018-04-23", 0.461], ["2018-04-23", 0.415], ["2018-04-23", 0.415], ["2018-04-24", 0.424], ["2018-04-24", 0.412],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/825/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Just where, exactly, is Westworld? Fan speculation on this question is widespread, with more than a few, shall we say, unusual theories currently in the running. These include the idea that Westworld is located on another planet, or that it’s kept underneath an enormous dome.
While it's true that domes have the advanta... | true | 2018-05-06 | Is Westworld located on an island? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-12-31 | 2018-04-22 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-22", 0.675], ["2018-04-22", 0.675], ["2018-04-22", 0.702], ["2018-04-22", 0.702], ["2018-04-22", 0.742], ["2018-04-22", 0.75], ["2018-04-22", 0.721], ["2018-04-22", 0.712], ["2018-04-22", 0.712], ["2018-04-23", 0.712], ["2018-04-23", 0.689], ["2018-04-23", 0.689], ["2018-04-23", 0.689], ["2018-04-23", 0.689]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/826/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | In this Westworld Reddit thread, user tselionarskla offers the theory that oldest active Host and primary narrative engine, Dolores, is, in the world of the show, modeled after a "real" human being who existed (at some point) outside of the park.
In support of this theory, already revealed season two footage shows Dolo... | true | 2018-05-06 | In Westworld, is Dolores modeled after a flesh-and-blood human being from outside the park? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-05-26 | 2018-05-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-03", 0.8], ["2018-05-03", 0.76], ["2018-05-03", 0.773], ["2018-05-03", 0.788], ["2018-05-03", 0.77], ["2018-05-03", 0.77], ["2018-05-03", 0.786], ["2018-05-03", 0.78], ["2018-05-03", 0.783], ["2018-05-04", 0.757], ["2018-05-04", 0.752], ["2018-05-04", 0.734], ["2018-05-04", 0.736], ["2018-05-04", 0.736], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/887/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
The referendum on Ireland's current abortion ban is scheduled for 25 May 2018 (Image, Department of Taoiseach). | true | 2018-05-24 | Will Ireland's referendum to repeal the Eighth Amendment pass? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-31 | 2018-05-07 | [] | binary | [["2018-10-01", 0.15], ["2018-10-01", 0.327], ["2018-10-01", 0.236], ["2018-10-02", 0.22], ["2018-10-02", 0.22], ["2018-10-02", 0.227], ["2018-10-03", 0.212], ["2018-10-03", 0.215], ["2018-10-03", 0.209], ["2018-10-04", 0.209], ["2018-10-05", 0.209], ["2018-10-06", 0.212], ["2018-10-06", 0.212], ["2018-10-06", 0.206], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/889/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | It was previously asked whether Tesla would go bankrupt by 2019. The Metaculus prediction on that question ended up being 10% and that (in the writer's opinion) still feels about right as of the writing of this question. Tesla may run out of money within 2018, yet even a rather unsuccessful capital raise is likely to s... | true | 2019-01-01 | Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-05-16 | 2018-05-10 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-10", 0.75], ["2018-05-10", 0.71], ["2018-05-10", 0.623], ["2018-05-10", 0.623], ["2018-05-10", 0.61], ["2018-05-10", 0.568], ["2018-05-10", 0.542], ["2018-05-10", 0.551], ["2018-05-10", 0.551], ["2018-05-10", 0.541], ["2018-05-10", 0.541], ["2018-05-10", 0.547], ["2018-05-10", 0.535], ["2018-05-10", 0.535], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/898/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In December, 2017, the FCC voted to repeal rules it had made under the Obama administration requiring internet providers to obey so-called "net neutrality."
Those rules generally require the ISPs to treat all network traffic equally, not prioritizing or filtering traffic based on extra fees or special treatment for cer... | true | 2018-05-16 | Will the US Senate vote to keep net neutrality | metaculus | 1 |
2018-07-18 | 2018-05-11 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-15", 0.08], ["2018-05-15", 0.246], ["2018-05-15", 0.202], ["2018-05-15", 0.223], ["2018-05-15", 0.193], ["2018-05-15", 0.198], ["2018-05-15", 0.167], ["2018-05-16", 0.183], ["2018-05-16", 0.177], ["2018-05-16", 0.172], ["2018-05-16", 0.192], ["2018-05-16", 0.174], ["2018-05-16", 0.185], ["2018-05-16", 0.186]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/900/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | An outbreak of Ebola virus disease was identified by the World Health Organization in early May 2018 in the Bikoro region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In initial reports 27 cases of hemorrhagic fever were reported, with 17 deaths. Two of the cases were confirmed as ebola.
At the time of this writing an addi... | true | 2018-06-01 | Will the current Ebola outbreak be contained to under 50 cases? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-15 | 2018-05-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-16", 0.65], ["2018-05-17", 0.69], ["2018-05-18", 0.68], ["2018-05-19", 0.642], ["2018-05-20", 0.627], ["2018-05-21", 0.621], ["2018-05-22", 0.619], ["2018-05-23", 0.609], ["2018-05-24", 0.595], ["2018-05-25", 0.601], ["2018-05-26", 0.596], ["2018-05-27", 0.595], ["2018-05-28", 0.596], ["2018-05-30", 0.596], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/903/ | A very interesting analysis by OpenAI shows a dramatic and steady increase in the amount of computation performed to train the most sophisticated AI/ML systems, with a doubling time of 3.5 months rather than the 18 months of Moore's law.
As of question writing, the highest amount of total computation is attributed to A... | Science & Tech | By end of 2018, will a published paper or pre-print describe an AI/ML system that has been trained using a number of computations that the method used by OpenAI in the above study would attribute more than operations?
Author will make his best effort to cajole authors of that study into resolving the question. | true | 2018-09-15 | Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-05-24 | 2018-05-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-16", 0.335], ["2018-05-16", 0.257], ["2018-05-16", 0.257], ["2018-05-16", 0.212], ["2018-05-16", 0.23], ["2018-05-17", 0.194], ["2018-05-17", 0.173], ["2018-05-17", 0.173], ["2018-05-17", 0.156], ["2018-05-17", 0.138], ["2018-05-17", 0.121], ["2018-05-17", 0.121], ["2018-05-17", 0.121], ["2018-05-17", 0.121]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/906/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
The Trump administration has announced that it is withdrawing from the Iranian nuclear deal and is considering additional sanctions over Iran's missile program (CNBC, The Washington Post). Examples of previous launches include the September 2017 a... | true | 2018-05-22 | Will Iran launch a medium, intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 16 and 23 May 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-05-24 | 2018-05-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-19", 0.08], ["2018-05-19", 0.065], ["2018-05-19", 0.047], ["2018-05-19", 0.047], ["2018-05-19", 0.048], ["2018-05-19", 0.048], ["2018-05-19", 0.048], ["2018-05-19", 0.043], ["2018-05-19", 0.044], ["2018-05-19", 0.04], ["2018-05-19", 0.04], ["2018-05-19", 0.041], ["2018-05-20", 0.046], ["2018-05-20", 0.039], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/912/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
On 8 May 2018 the U.S. declared that they were withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and will re-impose sanctions on Iran. Iran says it will remain in the deal, which tightly restricted its nuclear development for a decade in return for ending th... | true | 2018-05-22 | Will Iran announce it is enriching uranium above the 4.0% level before 23 May 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-06-03 | 2018-05-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-18", 0.7], ["2018-05-18", 0.7], ["2018-05-18", 0.533], ["2018-05-18", 0.533], ["2018-05-18", 0.533], ["2018-05-18", 0.52], ["2018-05-19", 0.52], ["2018-05-19", 0.525], ["2018-05-19", 0.525], ["2018-05-19", 0.525], ["2018-05-19", 0.525], ["2018-05-19", 0.525], ["2018-05-19", 0.521], ["2018-05-19", 0.546], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/913/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | SPOILERS
As described in more detail here, a lot went down in the S2E04 of Westworld, wherein it was revealed that the "real" purpose (or at least realer) is to digitize humans and load them into hosts for personal immortality.
In the episode, at some unclear point in time, Bernard-the-host enters a secret lab and make... | true | 2018-06-02 | Is Arnold in the red marble, in Westworld? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-02-01 | 2018-05-16 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-17", 0.345], ["2019-01-17", 0.48], ["2019-01-17", 0.498], ["2019-01-17", 0.498], ["2019-01-17", 0.468], ["2019-01-18", 0.432], ["2019-01-18", 0.415], ["2019-01-18", 0.415], ["2019-01-18", 0.419], ["2019-01-18", 0.427], ["2019-01-18", 0.427], ["2019-01-19", 0.439], ["2019-01-19", 0.458], ["2019-01-20", 0.458]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2567/ | A very interesting analysis by OpenAI shows a dramatic and steady increase in the amount of computation performed to train the most sophisticated AI/ML systems, with a doubling time of 3.5 months rather than the 18 months of Moore's law.
As of question writing, the highest amount of total computation is attributed to A... | Science & Tech | By end of 2019, will a published paper or pre-print describe an AI/ML system that has been trained using a number of computations that the method used by OpenAI in the above study would attribute more than operations?
Author will make his best effort to cajole authors of that study into resolving the question. | true | 2019-03-15 | Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-02-15 | 2018-05-16 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-03", 0.6], ["2020-02-03", 0.644], ["2020-02-04", 0.612], ["2020-02-04", 0.62], ["2020-02-04", 0.64], ["2020-02-05", 0.64], ["2020-02-05", 0.64], ["2020-02-06", 0.639], ["2020-02-07", 0.641], ["2020-02-07", 0.649], ["2020-02-07", 0.646], ["2020-02-08", 0.646], ["2020-02-10", 0.641], ["2020-02-11", 0.635], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3590/ | A very interesting analysis by OpenAI shows a dramatic and steady increase in the amount of computation performed to train the most sophisticated AI/ML systems, with a doubling time of 3.5 months rather than the 18 months of Moore's law.
As of question writing, the highest amount of total computation is attributed to A... | Science & Tech | By end of 2020, will a published paper or pre-print describe an AI/ML system that has been trained using a number of computations that the method used by OpenAI in the above study would attribute more than operations?
Resolution will be by credible estimate of a computations done in a calculation reported on in writing... | true | 2020-05-15 | Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2018-05-23 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-26", 0.15], ["2018-05-27", 0.373], ["2018-05-28", 0.402], ["2018-05-30", 0.38], ["2018-06-01", 0.41], ["2018-06-02", 0.395], ["2018-06-06", 0.386], ["2018-06-07", 0.379], ["2018-06-08", 0.372], ["2018-06-10", 0.371], ["2018-06-12", 0.364], ["2018-07-03", 0.364], ["2018-07-04", 0.364], ["2018-07-06", 0.358], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/919/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Recently racial tensions in South Africa have been high.
There is an upcoming land expropriation vote which will allow the government to take land without compensation. This is an attempt to redistribute land due to unequal land ownership as well as find productive land. Since the majority of privately owned land is ow... | true | 2019-08-01 | Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-09-02 | 2018-05-23 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-27", 0.13], ["2018-05-27", 0.079], ["2018-05-28", 0.07], ["2018-05-28", 0.072], ["2018-05-29", 0.072], ["2018-05-29", 0.07], ["2018-05-30", 0.084], ["2018-05-30", 0.081], ["2018-05-31", 0.093], ["2018-05-31", 0.091], ["2018-06-01", 0.087], ["2018-06-01", 0.096], ["2018-06-01", 0.091], ["2018-06-02", 0.09], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/924/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
"Acknowledged” means the government of the country executing the attack claims responsibility for it. A “national military attack” includes the employment of conventional or unconventional weapons by one country’s national military forces on anoth... | true | 2018-08-31 | Will China execute or be targeted in an acknowledged national military attack before 1 September 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-06-12 | 2018-05-23 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-26", 0.075], ["2018-05-26", 0.14], ["2018-05-26", 0.14], ["2018-05-26", 0.389], ["2018-05-26", 0.371], ["2018-05-27", 0.361], ["2018-05-27", 0.34], ["2018-05-27", 0.34], ["2018-05-27", 0.379], ["2018-05-27", 0.368], ["2018-05-27", 0.382], ["2018-05-28", 0.44], ["2018-05-28", 0.44], ["2018-05-28", 0.425], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/928/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
The first face-to-face meeting between American and North Korean leaders is set for June 12th (and perhaps June 13th!) on Singapore's Sentosa Island. Months of brinksmanship between the US and the hermit kingdom have placed the historic gathering ... | true | 2018-06-12 | Will Kim Jong-un meet the head of government from any G7 nation in-person before 15 June 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-12-31 | 2018-05-24 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-27", 0.45], ["2018-06-01", 0.636], ["2018-06-06", 0.627], ["2018-06-11", 0.64], ["2018-06-18", 0.621], ["2018-06-23", 0.614], ["2018-06-27", 0.614], ["2018-07-04", 0.613], ["2018-07-09", 0.61], ["2018-07-14", 0.61], ["2018-07-18", 0.607], ["2018-07-22", 0.609], ["2018-07-28", 0.62], ["2018-08-03", 0.62], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/930/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Donald Trump won the 2016 election, to the surprise of many (including many here on Metaculus), having never been elected to a political office before. This is rare amongst US presidents, with the last such president being Eisenhower, who had been a military leader instead.
But perhaps the age of the politician preside... | true | 2020-01-01 | Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any *other* previous significant political office? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-08-17 | 2018-05-25 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-28", 0.1], ["2018-06-02", 0.504], ["2018-06-07", 0.503], ["2018-06-10", 0.508], ["2018-06-14", 0.51], ["2018-06-19", 0.509], ["2018-06-26", 0.506], ["2018-07-03", 0.506], ["2018-07-06", 0.501], ["2018-07-11", 0.492], ["2018-07-16", 0.498], ["2018-07-22", 0.498], ["2018-08-06", 0.497], ["2018-08-10", 0.495], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/931/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | It is usual for incumbent first-term presidents to receive their party's nomination for a second term, with Jimmy Carter in 1980 the last sitting president to lose at least one primary contest. However, in many ways, Donald Trump is an unusual president.
This question therefore asks whether Donald Trump will face a ser... | true | 2019-11-03 | Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-11-25 | 2018-05-25 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-28", 0.25], ["2018-05-28", 0.533], ["2018-05-29", 0.559], ["2018-05-30", 0.527], ["2018-05-30", 0.539], ["2018-05-31", 0.511], ["2018-06-01", 0.546], ["2018-06-01", 0.545], ["2018-06-02", 0.536], ["2018-06-02", 0.539], ["2018-06-03", 0.55], ["2018-06-04", 0.55], ["2018-06-05", 0.548], ["2018-06-05", 0.55], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/932/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The world's best-known cryptocurrency took the world by storm in 2017, peaking at nearly $20,000 in December, 2017.
2018 has been less kind to bitcoin and to cryptocurrencies in general. As of May 22, bitcoin is floating around $8,200. Other "Altcoins" like Ethereum and Ripple have been similarly hammered this year.
In... | true | 2018-08-30 | Will bitcoin either boom or bust (but not just boringly wander up or down) during 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-10-15 | 2018-05-25 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-28", 0.5], ["2018-05-28", 0.49], ["2018-05-29", 0.521], ["2018-05-29", 0.521], ["2018-05-29", 0.535], ["2018-05-30", 0.539], ["2018-05-30", 0.532], ["2018-05-31", 0.532], ["2018-05-31", 0.52], ["2018-06-01", 0.54], ["2018-06-01", 0.54], ["2018-06-01", 0.524], ["2018-06-02", 0.524], ["2018-06-02", 0.523], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/933/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Other | The royal wedding of Prince Harry and Meghan Markle captivated a television audience of over 18 million people.
The affair offered symbolic power as well. The New York Times, for instance, celebrated its "Bicultural Blackness", while Time Magazine tuned into the couple's special song, Stand By Me, noting that:
For many... | true | 2018-08-20 | Will Prince Harry and Meghan Markle announce a pregnancy by year's end? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-12-20 | 2018-05-25 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-28", 0.25], ["2018-05-28", 0.28], ["2018-05-29", 0.28], ["2018-05-30", 0.265], ["2018-05-30", 0.286], ["2018-05-31", 0.325], ["2018-06-01", 0.325], ["2018-06-01", 0.325], ["2018-06-02", 0.335], ["2018-06-03", 0.351], ["2018-06-03", 0.348], ["2018-06-04", 0.36], ["2018-06-06", 0.37], ["2018-06-06", 0.374], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/934/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | In Major League Baseball history, there have been just 299 no hitters ever thrown. That averages to approximately 2 a season. The last one was pitched by Sean Manaea of the Oakland A's on April 21, 2018.
Statistically speaking, we should expect another no hitter by the end of the 2018 season.
But perfect games are a wh... | true | 2018-10-15 | Will a MLB pitcher throw a perfect game in 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-09-04 | 2018-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-01", 0.2], ["2018-06-01", 0.214], ["2018-06-02", 0.186], ["2018-06-02", 0.184], ["2018-06-03", 0.194], ["2018-06-04", 0.194], ["2018-06-04", 0.194], ["2018-06-04", 0.194], ["2018-06-05", 0.194], ["2018-06-06", 0.191], ["2018-06-06", 0.186], ["2018-06-07", 0.18], ["2018-06-08", 0.168], ["2018-06-08", 0.166], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/940/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
The disease must have been contracted in the country of interest for this question to resolve as "yes." Imported cases (e.g., where the patient traveled to an endemic country, contracted the disease, and brought it home) do not meet the resolution... | true | 2018-08-31 | Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Ukraine, Russia, Georgia or Armenia between 1 June 2018 and 31 August 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-01-12 | 2018-06-01 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-01", 0.5], ["2018-06-02", 0.5], ["2018-06-02", 0.643], ["2018-06-02", 0.493], ["2018-06-03", 0.451], ["2018-06-03", 0.476], ["2018-06-04", 0.481], ["2018-06-04", 0.487], ["2018-06-05", 0.487], ["2018-06-05", 0.48], ["2018-06-06", 0.48], ["2018-06-06", 0.493], ["2018-06-07", 0.487], ["2018-06-08", 0.484], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/941/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | "Gene drives" are phenomena in a species' population in which one version of a gene, or allele, is probabilistically favored over other alleles that are otherwise equally favored by fitness. A gene drive in a particular allele shows up as a bias for the corresponding phenotype in the offspring. Consider two parents wit... | true | 2019-01-01 | By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2018-06-03 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-06", 0.05], ["2018-06-10", 0.197], ["2018-06-12", 0.191], ["2018-06-17", 0.191], ["2018-06-20", 0.188], ["2018-06-23", 0.194], ["2018-06-26", 0.193], ["2018-07-07", 0.193], ["2018-07-11", 0.204], ["2018-07-14", 0.204], ["2018-07-18", 0.249], ["2018-07-23", 0.249], ["2018-07-31", 0.25], ["2018-08-04", 0.26], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/945/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Moon Express has released a plan for going to the moon and then mining the moon for resources.
They have three missons planned. The first will be a scout to survey the moon. The second mission they will send up lunar prospecting equipement. The third misson is to have their first sample return expedition "harvest moon"... | true | 2020-06-16 | Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-02 | 2018-06-03 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-06", 0.125], ["2018-06-07", 0.155], ["2018-06-08", 0.262], ["2018-06-10", 0.247], ["2018-06-11", 0.242], ["2018-06-13", 0.219], ["2018-06-14", 0.246], ["2018-06-15", 0.255], ["2018-06-18", 0.256], ["2018-06-18", 0.258], ["2018-06-21", 0.259], ["2018-06-23", 0.259], ["2018-06-24", 0.261], ["2018-06-26", 0.261... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/946/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Moon Express has released a plan for going to the moon and then mining the moon for resources.
They have three missons planned. The first will be a scout to survey the moon. The second mission they will send up lunar prospecting equipement. The third misson is to have their first sample return expedition "harvest moon"... | true | 2019-06-16 | Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-09-18 | 2018-06-06 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-07", 0.33], ["2018-06-07", 0.108], ["2018-06-08", 0.127], ["2018-06-08", 0.113], ["2018-06-08", 0.12], ["2018-06-09", 0.115], ["2018-06-09", 0.117], ["2018-06-10", 0.119], ["2018-06-11", 0.12], ["2018-06-11", 0.118], ["2018-06-12", 0.118], ["2018-06-12", 0.127], ["2018-06-13", 0.129], ["2018-06-15", 0.129], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/962/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
As shipping traffic via Arctic routes gradually increases due to less sea ice, international policy efforts are underway to ban heavy fuel oil (HFO) from the Arctic, as it is banned in the Antarctic, before there is a spill (CTV News,The ICCT, NOA... | true | 2018-09-07 | Will there be a heavy fuel oil spill of 1,000 gallons or more in the Arctic between 6 June and 8 September 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-06-27 | 2018-06-13 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-17", 0.01], ["2018-06-17", 0.023], ["2018-06-17", 0.023], ["2018-06-17", 0.036], ["2018-06-17", 0.059], ["2018-06-17", 0.076], ["2018-06-18", 0.076], ["2018-06-18", 0.079], ["2018-06-18", 0.098], ["2018-06-18", 0.12], ["2018-06-18", 0.12], ["2018-06-18", 0.132], ["2018-06-18", 0.133], ["2018-06-18", 0.135], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/972/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | No nation has ever successfully defended a World Cup except for Brazil in 1962.
Since 2002, 3 out of the 4 defending champions have been eliminated in the first round group stage. France in 2002, Italy in 2010 and Spain in 2014. Again, the only exception here is Brazil in 2006 who managed to get to the quarterfinals at... | true | 2018-06-25 | Will Germany win the FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2018-06-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-19", 0.75], ["2018-06-19", 0.47], ["2018-06-20", 0.463], ["2018-06-21", 0.412], ["2018-06-21", 0.412], ["2018-06-22", 0.431], ["2018-06-23", 0.483], ["2018-06-23", 0.484], ["2018-06-24", 0.497], ["2018-06-24", 0.476], ["2018-06-26", 0.476], ["2018-06-26", 0.483], ["2018-06-27", 0.484], ["2018-06-29", 0.487],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/975/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The lunar South Pole is a desolate place--empty, astonishingly cold, hidden from view. But there's something special about the region. Scientists believe substantial reservoirs of frozen liquid water hide in the permanent shadows. Perhaps, this water could sustain a future human moon base.
To explore this and other urg... | true | 2018-10-15 | Will India's Chandrayaan-2 mission to the moon blast off before 2018 is out? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-09-30 | 2018-06-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-19", 0.3], ["2018-06-19", 0.31], ["2018-06-19", 0.408], ["2018-06-19", 0.468], ["2018-06-19", 0.473], ["2018-06-20", 0.476], ["2018-06-20", 0.488], ["2018-06-20", 0.488], ["2018-06-21", 0.498], ["2018-06-21", 0.504], ["2018-06-21", 0.496], ["2018-06-21", 0.487], ["2018-06-21", 0.48], ["2018-06-21", 0.484], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/976/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The gravitational-wave detector known as LIGO is in serious effect. Since September 2015, it has detected 5 black hole mergers and one (amazing) merger of two distant neutron stars.
For the wonks in the audience, this link gives technical specs on all the confirmed LIGO events to date.
Here's what's interesting, though... | true | 2018-08-01 | Official announcement of a 6th black hole merger spotted by a gravitational wave detector by end of summer? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-01 | 2018-06-17 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-19", 0.03], ["2018-06-19", 0.319], ["2018-06-20", 0.313], ["2018-06-20", 0.303], ["2018-06-21", 0.281], ["2018-06-21", 0.27], ["2018-06-22", 0.27], ["2018-06-23", 0.271], ["2018-06-23", 0.264], ["2018-06-24", 0.267], ["2018-06-24", 0.269], ["2018-06-25", 0.272], ["2018-06-25", 0.271], ["2018-06-26", 0.271], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/977/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | There's something about drones – tiny little automated flying machines – that is simply fun, as attested to by their popularity around Christmas. And, there are lots of very useful things they can now do.
But of course, drones can also be a bit creepy, and there is a dark side. For instance, this miltary-educated blogg... | true | 2018-09-15 | Will someone in the U.S. be killed by a drone before 2018 is up? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-03-12 | 2018-06-17 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-20", 0.3], ["2018-06-20", 0.372], ["2018-06-21", 0.364], ["2018-06-21", 0.299], ["2018-06-22", 0.352], ["2018-06-23", 0.352], ["2018-06-23", 0.349], ["2018-06-24", 0.342], ["2018-06-25", 0.35], ["2018-06-26", 0.35], ["2018-06-26", 0.347], ["2018-06-27", 0.349], ["2018-06-27", 0.343], ["2018-06-30", 0.348], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/978/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Daylight savings time was instituted for reasons that have been somewhat unclear or inapplicable for a long time, and probably has caused a lot of death and destruction. For an authoritative account of its history, along with a reasoned discussion of whether it should still be a thing, see here.
In California a bill ha... | true | 2018-11-05 | Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2018-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-27", 0.5], ["2018-06-28", 0.572], ["2018-06-29", 0.602], ["2018-06-30", 0.627], ["2018-07-01", 0.626], ["2018-07-02", 0.642], ["2018-07-03", 0.647], ["2018-07-04", 0.644], ["2018-07-04", 0.642], ["2018-07-06", 0.654], ["2018-07-07", 0.665], ["2018-07-08", 0.665], ["2018-07-10", 0.666], ["2018-07-10", 0.668],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/999/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has been inside the Ecuadorian embassy in London since June 2012, fearing arrest and extradition to Sweden should he leave.
In the intervening years, there have been a variety of attempts to end the detente and allow Assange to leave Ecuadorian protection of his own volition. He has bee... | true | 2018-11-01 | Will Julian Assange still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the end of 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-09-22 | 2018-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-24", 0.9], ["2018-06-25", 0.825], ["2018-06-25", 0.78], ["2018-06-25", 0.755], ["2018-06-25", 0.738], ["2018-06-25", 0.733], ["2018-06-25", 0.733], ["2018-06-25", 0.728], ["2018-06-25", 0.75], ["2018-06-25", 0.75], ["2018-06-25", 0.757], ["2018-06-25", 0.763], ["2018-06-25", 0.767], ["2018-06-25", 0.767], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1000/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The Hayabusa2 mission is on course to meet up with the 900 meter wide asteroid known as Ryugu in the imminent future. What will this rendezvous bring? Hopefully, some good "Science!" with a capital "S".
Space.com has the skinny:
The spacecraft, which launched in 2014, is set to arrive at the 3,000-foot-wide (900 meters... | true | 2018-07-15 | Will Japan's Hayabusa2 spacecraft's lander or rovers successfully land on the asteroid Ryugu? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-05-24 | 2018-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-30", 0.2], ["2018-06-30", 0.265], ["2018-06-30", 0.252], ["2018-06-30", 0.238], ["2018-06-30", 0.203], ["2018-06-30", 0.203], ["2018-07-01", 0.2], ["2018-07-01", 0.189], ["2018-07-01", 0.192], ["2018-07-01", 0.191], ["2018-07-01", 0.235], ["2018-07-02", 0.226], ["2018-07-02", 0.226], ["2018-07-02", 0.228], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1003/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | After a much publicized fight over net neutrality, the Trump administration repealed the net neutrality regulations enacted in 2015 under the Obama administration, which prohibited Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from charging more for certain content or giving preferential treatment to certain websites.
This has rai... | true | 2018-08-15 | Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-20 | 2018-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-23", 0.19], ["2018-08-24", 0.19], ["2018-08-24", 0.53], ["2018-08-24", 0.53], ["2018-08-24", 0.518], ["2018-08-24", 0.517], ["2018-08-24", 0.517], ["2018-08-24", 0.49], ["2018-08-24", 0.492], ["2018-08-24", 0.506], ["2018-08-24", 0.52], ["2018-08-24", 0.522], ["2018-08-24", 0.532], ["2018-08-24", 0.534], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1004/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Following concerns about privacy of its citizens, the European Union enacted the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), forcing websites serving European citizens to adhere to certain standards of user consent, data transparency, and user information access and erasure.
Big companies especially have spent a long ti... | true | 2019-03-15 | Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-10-06 | 2018-06-28 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-01", 0.6], ["2018-07-01", 0.758], ["2018-07-01", 0.807], ["2018-07-02", 0.797], ["2018-07-02", 0.772], ["2018-07-02", 0.783], ["2018-07-03", 0.781], ["2018-07-03", 0.782], ["2018-07-03", 0.782], ["2018-07-04", 0.787], ["2018-07-04", 0.79], ["2018-07-04", 0.79], ["2018-07-05", 0.79], ["2018-07-05", 0.79], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1010/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | US Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy, considered one of the court's more moderate/swing votes, recently announced his impending retirement. This means President Trump will have the chance to propose a second Supreme Court nominee, which will likely shape the face of constitutionality questions for many years to com... | true | 2018-10-25 | Will a new US Supreme Court Justice be approved in 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-06-24 | 2018-06-28 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-03", 0.7], ["2018-07-11", 0.303], ["2018-07-21", 0.293], ["2018-08-03", 0.301], ["2018-08-12", 0.29], ["2018-09-01", 0.287], ["2018-09-12", 0.285], ["2018-09-25", 0.288], ["2018-10-09", 0.279], ["2018-10-16", 0.279], ["2018-10-29", 0.276], ["2018-11-09", 0.278], ["2018-11-19", 0.286], ["2018-12-15", 0.286], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1011/ | Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that Roe v. Wade, the decision wh... | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if, between July 1 2018 to July 31 2028, the US Supreme Court overturns a previous ruling or upholds a state or federal law which bans elective abortions at some point before the date of fetal viability.
By "banning elective abortions", we mean for the purpose of this question any ... | true | 2028-07-31 | Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-11-26 | 2018-06-30 | ["http://thelongestswim.com/logbook/"] | binary | [["2018-07-03", 0.5], ["2018-07-03", 0.5], ["2018-07-04", 0.52], ["2018-07-04", 0.52], ["2018-07-04", 0.546], ["2018-07-05", 0.549], ["2018-07-05", 0.563], ["2018-07-05", 0.555], ["2018-07-06", 0.509], ["2018-07-06", 0.502], ["2018-07-06", 0.495], ["2018-07-07", 0.489], ["2018-07-07", 0.489], ["2018-07-07", 0.48], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1013/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Benoit Lecomte is an accomplished long-distance swimmer who is attempting to swim from Japan to California in an effort to raise awareness about the environmental impact of plastics and other trash on the world's beaches and oceans.
In 1998, Lecomte swam from Massachusetts to France (roughly 3,700 miles in 73 days) to ... | true | 2019-06-05 | Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-08-06 | 2018-07-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-05", 0.8], ["2018-07-05", 0.85], ["2018-07-05", 0.675], ["2018-07-05", 0.791], ["2018-07-06", 0.811], ["2018-07-06", 0.796], ["2018-07-06", 0.768], ["2018-07-06", 0.725], ["2018-07-07", 0.73], ["2018-07-07", 0.732], ["2018-07-07", 0.726], ["2018-07-07", 0.702], ["2018-07-08", 0.7], ["2018-07-08", 0.706], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1019/ | After DeepMind's ascent to the top of Go playing, and with great advances in AI systems playing many (but not some other) Atari games through self-training and reinforcement learning, interest has turned to games that require a lot of long-term strategic thinking and sub-goal setting, such as Starcraft 2 and in the sho... | Sports | Will OpenAI's system beat the top players on August 5th?
The question accepts whatever rules/restrictions the match occurs under. If there is a single game, resolution will be based on that game. If there are multiple games it will be based on winning the majority of the games; in case of a tie it resolves ambiguous.
A... | true | 2018-08-03 | Will OpenAI's machine system defeat a pro team at Dota 2 in August? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-02-03 | 2018-07-06 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-06", 0.62], ["2018-07-06", 0.2], ["2018-07-06", 0.4], ["2018-07-06", 0.4], ["2018-07-06", 0.571], ["2018-07-06", 0.597], ["2018-07-06", 0.602], ["2018-07-06", 0.644], ["2018-07-06", 0.644], ["2018-07-06", 0.661], ["2018-07-06", 0.665], ["2018-07-06", 0.664], ["2018-07-07", 0.646], ["2018-07-07", 0.646], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1028/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | As of June 20, 2018, the entire Red Planet has been ensnarled in dust. Yikes! Here's USA Today with the gory details:
A giant dust storm has enveloped the entire planet of Mars, with dust clouds reaching up to 40 miles high, NASA announced Wednesday. The dust storm has silenced NASA's solar-powered rover Opportunity si... | true | 2018-08-05 | Will the Opportunity Mars rover awaken after the dust storm passes? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-21 | 2018-07-06 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-09", 0.29], ["2018-07-12", 0.286], ["2018-07-15", 0.277], ["2018-07-18", 0.264], ["2018-07-21", 0.252], ["2018-07-24", 0.271], ["2018-07-27", 0.27], ["2018-07-31", 0.256], ["2018-08-03", 0.26], ["2018-08-06", 0.255], ["2018-08-08", 0.249], ["2018-08-12", 0.26], ["2018-08-15", 0.259], ["2018-08-18", 0.265], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1039/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | This March, President Trump announced that America would create a 6th branch of the military, a so-called "Space Force". Per ABC News, Trump said:
It is not enough to merely have an American presence in space, we must have American dominance in space. Very importantly I'm hereby directing the Department of Defense and ... | true | 2020-01-01 | Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-10-24 | 2018-07-07 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-09", 0.3], ["2018-07-10", 0.291], ["2018-07-10", 0.266], ["2018-07-11", 0.271], ["2018-07-12", 0.262], ["2018-07-12", 0.256], ["2018-07-13", 0.266], ["2018-07-14", 0.266], ["2018-07-15", 0.261], ["2018-07-15", 0.268], ["2018-07-16", 0.255], ["2018-07-17", 0.253], ["2018-07-18", 0.247], ["2018-07-20", 0.254],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1041/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Elon Musk's Tesla company has already arguably revolutionized the auto industry.
The renegade billionaire hopes to blaze a path to the future. As Wait But Why's Tim Urban explained in an epic blog post nearly 3 years ago--based on extensive interviews with Musk:
The overarching mission wasn’t to build the biggest car c... | true | 2018-11-02 | Will Tesla be profitable in Q3 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-01-02 | 2018-07-07 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-09", 0.4], ["2018-07-10", 0.438], ["2018-07-11", 0.438], ["2018-07-12", 0.445], ["2018-07-13", 0.449], ["2018-07-15", 0.392], ["2018-07-16", 0.386], ["2018-07-18", 0.377], ["2018-07-18", 0.377], ["2018-07-20", 0.376], ["2018-07-20", 0.387], ["2018-07-22", 0.393], ["2018-07-22", 0.393], ["2018-07-24", 0.395],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1046/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | American swimmer, Michael Phelps, is the most decorated Olympian in history.
As Olympic.org reports:
By the time he retired at Rio 2106 at the age of 31, Michael Phelps had collected a total of 23 golds, three silvers and two bronzes at the Olympics, a record-breaking haul that looks unlikely to be bettered for many ye... | true | 2018-12-31 | Will Michael Phelps be tempted out of retirement to compete in the 2020 Olympics? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-07-10 | 2018-07-07 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-07", 0.25], ["2018-07-07", 0.375], ["2018-07-07", 0.25], ["2018-07-07", 0.25], ["2018-07-07", 0.233], ["2018-07-08", 0.23], ["2018-07-08", 0.275], ["2018-07-08", 0.271], ["2018-07-08", 0.25], ["2018-07-08", 0.222], ["2018-07-08", 0.247], ["2018-07-08", 0.255], ["2018-07-08", 0.255], ["2018-07-08", 0.247], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1047/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Yes, this is a serious question. With things getting desperate for the thai teens trapped miles into a horrifyingly tricky cave complex, Elon Musk has claimed that he's got a team that is (as of question launch) hours away from completing little mini-submarines that could spirit teens through the tortuous cave passages... | true | 2018-07-15 | Will Elon Musk's kid-sized submarines come to the rescue? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-10-01 | 2018-07-08 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-11", 0.5], ["2018-07-11", 0.35], ["2018-07-12", 0.35], ["2018-07-12", 0.26], ["2018-07-12", 0.264], ["2018-07-13", 0.264], ["2018-07-13", 0.268], ["2018-07-13", 0.262], ["2018-07-14", 0.264], ["2018-07-14", 0.264], ["2018-07-15", 0.252], ["2018-07-15", 0.249], ["2018-07-16", 0.236], ["2018-07-18", 0.236], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1049/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The 2-octallion ton ball of plasma that we cutely call "the sun" is constantly seething. With some regularity, the sun "flares." Per NASA:
A solar flare is an intense burst of radiation coming from the release of magnetic energy associated with sunspots. Flares are our solar system’s largest explosive events. They are ... | true | 2018-09-15 | Will there be an X-Class solar flare before October 1, 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-11-16 | 2018-07-08 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-19", 0.5], ["2018-08-19", 0.295], ["2018-08-19", 0.587], ["2018-08-19", 0.587], ["2018-08-19", 0.668], ["2018-08-19", 0.797], ["2018-08-19", 0.797], ["2018-08-19", 0.805], ["2018-08-20", 0.82], ["2018-08-20", 0.811], ["2018-08-20", 0.796], ["2018-08-20", 0.811], ["2018-08-20", 0.814], ["2018-08-21", 0.811], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1050/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In early June, IBM together with the Department of Energy launched Summit, the world's newest biggest supercomputer. It processes at a mind-numbing 200,000 trillion calculations per second.
Per TechCrunch:
Summit... features 4,608 compute servers with two 22-core IBM Power9 chips and six Nvidia Tesla V100 GPUs each. In... | true | 2018-11-01 | Will the IBM's Summit remain the top dog in supercomputing power? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-09-09 | 2018-07-11 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-15", 0.3], ["2018-07-15", 0.203], ["2018-07-15", 0.233], ["2018-07-16", 0.188], ["2018-07-16", 0.168], ["2018-07-16", 0.168], ["2018-07-16", 0.173], ["2018-07-17", 0.166], ["2018-07-17", 0.169], ["2018-07-17", 0.169], ["2018-07-17", 0.164], ["2018-07-18", 0.162], ["2018-07-18", 0.16], ["2018-07-18", 0.17], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1075/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, the European Union, and Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in July 2015 (The Washington Post, Al-Monitor). The United States announced its withdrawal fr... | true | 2018-09-07 | Before 8 September 2018, will any of the remaining signatories to the Iran nuclear deal announce they are withdrawing? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-07-31 | 2018-07-17 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-18", 0.4], ["2018-07-18", 0.325], ["2018-07-18", 0.425], ["2018-07-18", 0.41], ["2018-07-18", 0.425], ["2018-07-18", 0.431], ["2018-07-18", 0.428], ["2018-07-18", 0.434], ["2018-07-18", 0.451], ["2018-07-18", 0.451], ["2018-07-19", 0.425], ["2018-07-19", 0.425], ["2018-07-19", 0.419], ["2018-07-19", 0.394], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1095/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Many of U.S. President Donald Trump's actions that have scandalized his political opponents have not made a dent in the approval he enjoys from his base.
It is possible, though, that the negative reaction he has received around his Helsinki meeting is different in kind, and will unsettle some of his staunchest supporte... | true | 2018-07-22 | Will Donald Trump's approval rating decline noticeably in the wake of the Helsinki Summit? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-07 | 2018-07-17 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-21", 0.25], ["2018-07-26", 0.41], ["2018-08-05", 0.37], ["2018-08-12", 0.358], ["2018-08-22", 0.348], ["2018-09-01", 0.346], ["2018-09-09", 0.339], ["2018-09-19", 0.348], ["2018-09-26", 0.348], ["2018-10-05", 0.35], ["2018-10-13", 0.349], ["2018-10-20", 0.349], ["2018-10-27", 0.366], ["2018-11-02", 0.385], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1100/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Note: This question is conditional on timely results. We made another one here which is not.
Will President Donald Trump be reelected for a second term in 2020? This means that he will
(a) not be removed beforehand,
(b) actually run for a second term, and
(c) legally defeat other presidential nominees.
Resolution is ba... | true | 2020-11-03 | Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-07-23 | 2018-07-20 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-25", 0.84], ["2018-08-01", 0.512], ["2018-08-08", 0.541], ["2018-08-11", 0.566], ["2018-08-16", 0.572], ["2018-08-21", 0.574], ["2018-08-23", 0.578], ["2018-09-05", 0.577], ["2018-09-13", 0.577], ["2018-09-19", 0.568], ["2018-09-27", 0.566], ["2018-10-04", 0.563], ["2018-10-07", 0.56], ["2018-10-13", 0.561],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1139/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | NASA, sometimes in cooperation with other countries, launches missions to space to study planets, stars and other celestial bodies. In order to do this, scientists and engineers have to account for factors, such as money and weight.
To make a decent mission and to gather as much data as possible, a probe that NASA coul... | true | 2020-07-31 | Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-02-01 | 2018-07-24 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-27", 0.95], ["2018-07-28", 0.716], ["2018-07-29", 0.752], ["2018-07-30", 0.757], ["2018-07-31", 0.765], ["2018-08-01", 0.734], ["2018-08-02", 0.709], ["2018-08-03", 0.711], ["2018-08-04", 0.717], ["2018-08-05", 0.723], ["2018-08-07", 0.728], ["2018-08-09", 0.741], ["2018-08-10", 0.746], ["2018-08-11", 0.739]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1301/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In June 2016, the people of the UK voted narrowly in favour of leaving the European Union. Things have not gone altogether smoothly since then. Negotiations between the UK and the EU have been acrimonious and a "no-deal" exit (whose economic consequences would be disagreeable) seems a real possibility; in July 2018 two... | true | 2019-01-01 | Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-05-21 | 2018-07-26 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-30", 0.43], ["2018-07-31", 0.286], ["2018-08-01", 0.356], ["2018-08-02", 0.338], ["2018-08-03", 0.371], ["2018-08-04", 0.372], ["2018-08-05", 0.381], ["2018-08-07", 0.388], ["2018-08-08", 0.393], ["2018-08-09", 0.396], ["2018-08-10", 0.403], ["2018-08-12", 0.401], ["2018-08-13", 0.394], ["2018-08-15", 0.401]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1313/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | At the end of season seven of HBO's drama Game of Thrones, to fight the Night King, Daenerys Targaryen has allied herself with Cersei Lannister, who plots to betray her, and Jon Snow, with whom she has slept, unaware that Snow is her nephew. To the north, the Night King has revived one of her dragons and breached the W... | true | 2019-04-01 | Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-01-31 | 2018-07-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-30", 0.4], ["2018-07-31", 0.24], ["2018-07-31", 0.201], ["2018-08-01", 0.229], ["2018-08-02", 0.231], ["2018-08-02", 0.228], ["2018-08-03", 0.228], ["2018-08-03", 0.234], ["2018-08-04", 0.229], ["2018-08-04", 0.225], ["2018-08-05", 0.225], ["2018-08-05", 0.224], ["2018-08-06", 0.241], ["2018-08-06", 0.241], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1314/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | It was previously asked whether the interest in Veganism would further increase in 2018. While that question has not resolved yet (as of the writing of this question), it would be interesting to know whether, if interest in Veganism should no longer be increasing, it will be decreasing by any substantial amount.
Once a... | true | 2018-12-31 | Will interest in Veganism decrease prior to 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-10-06 | 2018-07-30 | ["https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/21/kav\u2026)"] | binary | [["2018-08-02", 0.7], ["2018-08-02", 0.793], ["2018-08-02", 0.72], ["2018-08-02", 0.746], ["2018-08-02", 0.754], ["2018-08-02", 0.785], ["2018-08-02", 0.776], ["2018-08-02", 0.756], ["2018-08-03", 0.759], ["2018-08-03", 0.769], ["2018-08-03", 0.76], ["2018-08-03", 0.757], ["2018-08-03", 0.74], ["2018-08-03", 0.727], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1318/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On June 27, Justice Anthony Kennedy announced that he would retire from the Supreme Court, giving President Trump his 2nd SCOTUS nomination in as many years. On July 9, Brett Kavanaugh was announced as Trump's nominee for the vacated seat. Before he can hear a single argument, however, he must be confirmed by the Senat... | true | 2018-08-29 | Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed by the Senate before November 6, 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-08-19 | 2018-07-30 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-02", 0.33], ["2018-08-05", 0.323], ["2018-08-11", 0.288], ["2018-08-15", 0.294], ["2018-08-24", 0.296], ["2018-08-26", 0.3], ["2018-08-31", 0.3], ["2018-09-05", 0.301], ["2018-09-10", 0.304], ["2018-09-13", 0.306], ["2018-09-19", 0.3], ["2018-09-29", 0.3], ["2018-10-03", 0.292], ["2018-10-06", 0.29], ["2018-... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1319/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Although we're still several months away from official candidate announcements, let's put our politics brains in and think about who might be yelling at Donald Trump on a stage in 2019.
So far, the only major candidate to have declared candidacy for the Democratic party nomination is John Delaney, a Congressman from Ma... | true | 2020-03-03 | Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-09-24 | 2018-08-05 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-10", 0.455], ["2018-08-10", 0.545], ["2018-08-10", 0.548], ["2018-08-11", 0.513], ["2018-08-11", 0.495], ["2018-08-11", 0.491], ["2018-08-11", 0.491], ["2018-08-12", 0.477], ["2018-08-12", 0.477], ["2018-08-13", 0.455], ["2018-08-13", 0.457], ["2018-08-13", 0.434], ["2018-08-13", 0.434], ["2018-08-13", 0.434... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1329/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | It was previously asked whether the Ebola outbreak that began in early May 2018 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo would be contained to under 50 cases. That question resolved negative, but the outbreak has now ended.
Regrettably, another Ebola outbreak began on August 1st 2018 in the Kivu province of the Democrat... | true | 2018-09-05 | Will the latest Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims a hundred lives? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-25 | 2018-08-07 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-10", 0.1], ["2018-08-11", 0.182], ["2018-08-11", 0.176], ["2018-08-13", 0.176], ["2018-08-13", 0.17], ["2018-08-15", 0.183], ["2018-08-15", 0.183], ["2018-08-17", 0.229], ["2018-08-17", 0.228], ["2018-08-18", 0.23], ["2018-08-19", 0.227], ["2018-08-20", 0.221], ["2018-08-22", 0.215], ["2018-08-22", 0.217], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1333/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | update to: this question
Dominos continue to fall in Mueller's investigation of involvement of Russia in the 2016 presidential election.
As of question writing, Papadopoulos was charged, pled guilty, and is apparently cooperating with the FBI. Paul Manafort has been charged but pled innocent. Michael Flynn has pled gui... | true | 2018-11-29 | Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Christmas Day 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-03-09 | 2018-08-07 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-09", 0.25], ["2018-08-09", 0.202], ["2018-08-09", 0.268], ["2018-08-10", 0.292], ["2018-08-10", 0.307], ["2018-08-11", 0.307], ["2018-08-11", 0.337], ["2018-08-12", 0.337], ["2018-08-13", 0.34], ["2018-08-13", 0.378], ["2018-08-13", 0.381], ["2018-08-14", 0.375], ["2018-08-14", 0.375], ["2018-08-14", 0.365],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1335/ | We live in wild times. Last year, the Metaculus community debated whether we'd witness "a wide-scale hoax be created using video-alteration technology to put words in a famous figure's mouth."
Unsurprisingly, we were ahead of the game.
2018 has already witnessed massive progress in the field of AI, and comedian Jordan ... | Politics & Governance | In light of all this, Tim Hwang, director of MIT's Media Lab, posed a bet among colleagues in the field: "[will] someone... create a so-called Deepfake video about a political candidate that receives more than 2 million views before getting debunked by the end of 2018?"
The bet has attracted more than a dozen experts f... | true | 2018-11-01 | Will a "Deepfake" video about a national U.S. political candidate running for office in 2018 get 2M+ views? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-03-29 | 2018-08-07 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-10", 0.31], ["2018-08-11", 0.356], ["2018-08-12", 0.359], ["2018-08-13", 0.367], ["2018-08-14", 0.361], ["2018-08-15", 0.342], ["2018-08-18", 0.345], ["2018-08-19", 0.345], ["2018-08-20", 0.345], ["2018-08-21", 0.343], ["2018-08-23", 0.348], ["2018-08-26", 0.347], ["2018-08-26", 0.342], ["2018-08-29", 0.332]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1336/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Two currently open questions concern the future relationship of the UK and the EU:
Brexit Negotiations completed by March 2019 asks whether a Brexit deal will be signed and ratified by March 2019.
Will the UK actually leave the EU asks if Brexit will happen at all.
If no further agreement is reached, the UK will leave ... | true | 2018-12-31 | Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-31 | 2018-08-08 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-09", 0.35], ["2018-08-10", 0.61], ["2018-08-10", 0.601], ["2018-08-11", 0.535], ["2018-08-12", 0.523], ["2018-08-13", 0.538], ["2018-08-13", 0.548], ["2018-08-14", 0.551], ["2018-08-14", 0.553], ["2018-08-15", 0.56], ["2018-08-16", 0.551], ["2018-08-16", 0.551], ["2018-08-17", 0.552], ["2018-08-19", 0.553], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1345/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | On August 7th 2018, Elon Musk sent out a series of Tweets stating that he was contemplating taking Tesla private. Musk tweeted, 'Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.' He later tweeted, '… Will be way smoother & less disruptive as a private company. Ends negative propaganda from shorts.' Tesla h... | true | 2018-12-31 | Will Tesla go private prior to 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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