date_resolve_at stringlengths 10 10 | date_begin stringlengths 10 10 | extracted_urls stringlengths 2 7.19k | question_type stringclasses 3
values | community_predictions stringlengths 45 72.7k | url stringlengths 34 126 | background stringlengths 1 4.95k | gpt_3p5_category stringclasses 11
values | resolution_criteria stringlengths 43 5.42k | is_resolved bool 1
class | date_close stringlengths 10 10 | question stringlengths 31 259 | data_source stringclasses 5
values | resolution float64 0 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023-04-27 | 2023-01-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-24", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-25", 0.37174721189591103], ["2023-01-29", 0.3763127751109854], ["2023-01-29", 0.5775422457754227], ["2023-02-06", 0.4499999999999999], ["2023-02-06", 0.45920012927777837], ["2023-02-10", 0.40292964595496567], ["2023-02-12", 0.25190860572348217], ["2023-02-12", 0.2799999999... | https://manifold.markets/kottsiek/will-franziska-giffey-remain-in-pow | Resolves Yes if the next person elected "Regierender Bürgermeister von Berlin" (Governing Mayor) by the "Berliner Abgeordnetehaus" is Franziska Giffey. Resolves No if any other person is elected Mayor instead. The repeat election will be held on February 12 2023. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-27 | Will Franziska Giffey remain in power after the Berlin repeat state election? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-31 | 2023-01-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-30", 0.46159527326440175], ["2023-02-05", 0.498692156485761], ["2023-02-06", 0.29220154625561534], ["2023-02-09", 0.2647080282555633], ["2023-02-09", 0.3224783159999969], ["2023-02-14", 0.22269607911924713], ["2023-02-14", 0.23000000000000004], ["2023-02-14", 0.23703950766415918], ["2023-02-14", 0.25], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/PS/will-the-front-line-in-ukraine-chan | Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time before April 1, 2023? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects. Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bak... | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-31 | Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in Q1 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-27 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-26", 0.30769230769230776], ["2023-01-26", 0.4194573323981603], ["2023-01-26", 0.5170619266414392], ["2023-01-26", 0.5370057105844175], ["2023-01-26", 0.57], ["2023-01-26", 0.5756119484856236], ["2023-01-26", 0.5833690821526486], ["2023-01-26", 0.5983594966840208], ["2023-01-26", 0.6190169907637942], ["2023-0... | https://manifold.markets/WeatherIsNiceUpHere/will-trump-post-on-instagram-before | Will the Instagram account @realdonaldtrump post before 2024 (during 2023)? | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-27 | Will Trump post on Instagram before 2024? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-25 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.3380878669869285], ["2023-01-25", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-25", 0.43346824674978557], ["2023-01-25", 0.5517734004699075], ["2023-01-26", 0.3147301214893288], ["2023-01-30", 0.20150055571956774], ["2023-01-31", 0.18052265027805103], ["2023-02-18", 0.1924765496764117], ["2023-02-18", 0.37970343539... | https://manifold.markets/MichaelDickens/will-scott-alexanderastral-codex-te | The sole purpose of this market is to establish a conditional probability for a different market: | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-25 | Will Scott Alexander/Astral Codex Ten receive coverage in a journalistic outlet in the next two months? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-16 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.4836109618484686], ["2023-01-25", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-26", 0.5628076889179644], ["2023-01-26", 0.58221758197482], ["2023-01-26", 0.6132384478933817], ["2023-01-26", 0.6405894443011056], ["2023-01-30", 0.69], ["2023-01-30", 0.69], ["2023-01-30", 0.7], ["2023-01-30", 0.7252319988080742], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/NickelChen/will-any-nato-state-announce-the-de | Related markets: | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-16 | Will any NATO state announce the delivery of fighter jets to ukraine in 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-23 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.337837837837838], ["2023-01-25", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-26", 0.4416992405501221], ["2023-01-26", 0.47], ["2023-01-26", 0.4955766512927856], ["2023-01-26", 0.49984096184856425], ["2023-01-26", 0.5571729895266492], ["2023-01-26", 0.6267150947790284], ["2023-01-28", 0.46201507160151606], ["2023-0... | https://manifold.markets/NickelChen/will-any-nato-state-deliver-fighter | Related markets: | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-23 | Will any NATO state deliver fighter jets to ukraine in 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-26", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-28", 0.85], ["2023-01-28", 0.8695437170131781], ["2023-01-28", 0.8705849986103814], ["2023-01-30", 0.258942363219238], ["2023-01-30", 0.27237569613326124], ["2023-01-30", 0.29], ["2023-01-30", 0.2995179188673838], ["2023-01-30", 0.33], ["2023-01-30", 0.33], ["2023-01-30", ... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-movie-all-quiet-on-the-wes | 'All Quiet on the Western Front' is nominated in 9 categories at the 95th Academy Awards. This market will resolve to YES if it wins in at least 2 of them. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will the movie 'All Quiet on the Western Front' win multiple Academy Awards? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-25", 0.4971456214185559], ["2023-01-26", 0.4436768526286963], ["2023-01-26", 0.4920145523312082], ["2023-01-26", 0.5363971427180108], ["2023-01-26", 0.5768144173267535], ["2023-01-26", 0.6134101944324117], ["2023-01-27", 0.5062720721875515], ["2023-01-27", 0.52999999999999... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-black-panther-wakanda-forever-3a256a222576 | 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever' is nominated for 5 categories at the 95th Academy Awards. If it wins in at least 2 of them this market will resolve to YES. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever' win multiple Academy Awards at the 95th Academy Awards? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-25", 0.5000000000000002], ["2023-01-25", 0.5901639344262298], ["2023-01-25", 0.6259306807133681], ["2023-01-26", 0.6634128542758616], ["2023-01-26", 0.6960631880272866], ["2023-02-02", 0.5840940735217998], ["2023-02-04", 0.26089939364733233], ["2023-02-04", 0.3000000000000... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-movie-tar-win-multiple-aca | 'Tár' is nominated for 6 categories at the 95th Academy Awards. This market will resolve to YES if it wins in at least 2 of them. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will the movie 'Tár' win multiple Academy Awards? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-25", 0.5163890381515316], ["2023-01-26", 0.4124985993798804], ["2023-01-26", 0.46136690945702274], ["2023-01-28", 0.24909260809587974], ["2023-02-04", 0.18353391079607465], ["2023-02-04", 0.2], ["2023-02-08", 0.17813440423967666], ["2023-02-11", 0.1366671142033562], ["2023... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-movie-elvis-win-multiple-a | 'Elvis' is nominated for 8 categories at the 95th Academy Awards. This market will resolve to YES if it wins in at least 2 of them. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will the movie 'Elvis' win multiple Academy Awards? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-10 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-07", 0.0394370086668193], ["2023-02-08", 0.044964507948045414], ["2023-02-08", 0.04697906722631626], ["2023-02-09", 0.024870409533056442], ["2023-03-13", 0.02413649606454323], ["2023-03-13", 0.024301252194771035], ["2023-03-13", 0.024488124464974035], ["2023-03-13", 0.02467782223995995], ["2023-03-15", 0.020... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-brooklyn-nets-win-the-fina | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Brooklyn Nets win the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-28 | Will the Brooklyn Nets win the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-25", 0.507954672755856], ["2023-01-28", 0.6261666916609913], ["2023-01-29", 0.5728184638749493], ["2023-01-31", 0.6039686296149437], ["2023-02-04", 0.309430070761789], ["2023-02-04", 0.34000000000000014], ["2023-02-05", 0.36], ["2023-02-05", 0.36], ["2023-02-05", 0.36], ["... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-fablemans-win-multiple-aca | 'The Fabelmans' is nominated for 7 categories at the 95th Academy Awards. This market will resolve to YES if it wins at least 2 of them. Catgeories it's nominated for: Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Original Screenplay Best Original Score Best Production Design | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will 'The Fabelmans' win multiple Academy Awards? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-29 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-29", 0.13625720993674564], ["2023-01-30", 0.21327589470369585], ["2023-01-30", 0.21999999999999995], ["2023-01-30", 0.24438457157080595], ["2023-01-30", 0.2844958969661969], ["2023-01-31", 0.14], ["2023-01-31", 0.15000000000000005], ["2023-01-31", 0.1599999999999999], ["2023-02-07", 0.14049297083163467], ["2... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-memphis-grizzlies-win-the | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Memphis Grizzlies win the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-29 | Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-15 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-30", 0.09148829103540544], ["2023-02-08", 0.08112533964271934], ["2023-02-24", 0.07420821809750033], ["2023-03-05", 0.08], ["2023-03-05", 0.08], ["2023-03-05", 0.08], ["2023-03-08", 0.0999999999999998], ["2023-03-08", 0.0999999999999998], ["2023-03-08", 0.0999999999999998], ["2023-03-09", 0.11000000000000001... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-philadelphia-76ers-win-the | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-15 | Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-27 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-14", 0.14425537322843948], ["2023-02-20", 0.13478827005884592], ["2023-02-24", 0.11609833971399693], ["2023-02-24", 0.11766058958820771], ["2023-02-24", 0.11766058958820771], ["2023-02-24", 0.11766058958820771], ["2023-02-24", 0.14121164372328535], ["2023-02-24", 0.16000000000000034], ["2023-02-28", 0.128298... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-milwaukee-bucks-win-the-fi | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Milwaukee Bucks win the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-27 | Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-14 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-04", 0.03331154868502141], ["2023-02-07", 0.03808812141852385], ["2023-02-07", 0.05086443862719316], ["2023-02-07", 0.568872751238801], ["2023-02-11", 0.04472617222929266], ["2023-02-11", 0.04472617222929266], ["2023-02-11", 0.04472617222929266], ["2023-02-12", 0.027751180425799684], ["2023-02-12", 0.0300496... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-golden-state-warriors-win | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-14 | Will the Golden State Warriors win the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-14 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-09", 0.14441914294735775], ["2023-02-09", 0.21009012894523782], ["2023-02-09", 0.2125772855633221], ["2023-02-09", 0.2125772855633221], ["2023-02-09", 0.2125772855633221], ["2023-02-09", 0.22736396840716622], ["2023-02-09", 0.24010994604093555], ["2023-02-09", 0.25], ["2023-02-09", 0.25], ["2023-02-09", 0.25... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-phoenix-suns-win-the-final | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-14 | Will the Phoenix Suns win the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-02 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.4322376061976119], ["2023-01-25", 0.5024277752592017], ["2023-01-25", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-26", 0.315539970920667], ["2023-01-26", 0.352280408179743], ["2023-01-26", 0.35228040817974315], ["2023-01-26", 0.4815588635396886], ["2023-01-29", 0.31494394263788206], ["2023-01-29", 0.35999999999999... | https://manifold.markets/CromlynGames/will-the-kerch-strait-crimean-bridg | It was bombed in October 2023 for Putin's birthday, temporarily closing the railway line and destroying sections of one of two road decks. The railway still operates, and the bridge is open to light traffic but as of 07 Dec 2022 it was not carrying lorries or fully redecked. This question resolves yes if the railway li... | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-02 | Will the Kerch Strait Crimean Bridge be partially destroyed (again) by 02 May 2023 | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-01 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.28923431148490275], ["2023-01-25", 0.32100142289516975], ["2023-01-25", 0.32100142289516975], ["2023-01-25", 0.34768279038107985], ["2023-01-25", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-26", 0.27006436519259275], ["2023-01-31", 0.28953567731269797], ["2023-02-01", 0.15788840772731894], ["2023-02-01", 0.1651327... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-nick-fuentes-be-unbanned-by-th | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-01 | Will Nick Fuentes be unbanned on Twitter by the end of February? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-10 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.6699999999999996], ["2023-01-25", 0.6699999999999996], ["2023-01-25", 0.6699999999999997], ["2023-01-25", 0.6699999999999997], ["2023-01-25", 0.6699999999999999], ["2023-01-25", 0.6700000000000002], ["2023-01-25", 0.699273483985967], ["2023-01-25", 0.7443520257340264], ["2023-01-27", 0.669701676172771... | https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-any-of-these-three-oslobased-n | Oslo is currently undergoing a major housing crisis, and some people are starting to talk about Georgism/LVT as a possible solution. This market resolves YES if any one of these three Oslo-based Norwegian Newspapers publishes an article whose principle subject is directly related to Georgism and/or LVT before March 1, ... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-10 | Will any of these three Oslo-based Newspapers write an article about Georgism in Q1 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-26 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.3644057893013862], ["2023-01-25", 0.5961376014018577], ["2023-01-25", 0.6603871398226164], ["2023-01-25", 0.7155409063478783], ["2023-01-25", 0.7180584659383953], ["2023-01-25", 0.75], ["2023-01-25", 0.75], ["2023-01-25", 0.75], ["2023-01-25", 0.7600000000000001], ["2023-01-25", 0.7603247291212025], [... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-announce-plans-to-send | Resolves YES if by end of February the US announces plans to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine. Announcement must be from official sources (e.g. Biden administration). Otherwise NO. It is not necessary that the tanks be delivered before March, only the announcement. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-26 | Will the US announce plans to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine? (before March) | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-08 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.3], ["2023-01-25", 0.39203753566822724], ["2023-01-25", 0.3962731289423647], ["2023-01-25", 0.3962731289423647], ["2023-01-25", 0.3962731289423647], ["2023-01-25", 0.3962731289423647], ["2023-01-25", 0.3962731289423647], ["2023-01-25", 0.3962731289423647], ["2023-01-25", 0.3962731289423647], ["2023-01... | https://manifold.markets/ms_test/will-this-market-be-in-the-interval-4c23469ff0e2 | Yes if "chance" is between 30% and 40% OR 60 and 70% including endpoints. No if the chance is between 1% and 29% OR 41% and 59% OR 71% and 99%. N/A if it's less than 1% or more than 99% | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-08 | Will this market be in the interval [30-40] OR [60-70] when the question closes on February 8th? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-25", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-01-25", 0.7036644634113585], ["2023-01-25", 0.7321949965529055], ["2023-01-25", 0.7569621894081091], ["2023-01-25", 0.7781159290555191], ["2023-01-25", 0.7957569305055231], ["2023-01-25", 0.8030681338780201], ["2023-01-25", 0.80664941311751... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-avatar-the-way-of-water-win-mu | 'Avatar: The Way of Water' is nominated for 4 categories at the 95th Academy Awards. If it wins at least 2 of these, this market will resolve to YES. Categories it's nominated for: Best Picture Best Sound Best Production Design Best Visual Effects | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' win multiple Academy Awards? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-29 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.2000000000000001], ["2023-01-25", 0.20725549664584422], ["2023-01-25", 0.23088767636530558], ["2023-02-03", 0.26831769919767096], ["2023-02-21", 0.29096554366121585], ["2023-04-10", 0.25079803290299546], ["2023-04-10", 0.26], ["2023-04-10", 0.26], ["2023-04-10", 0.26], ["2023-04-10", 0.282355177051739... | https://manifold.markets/yunglady/will-this-years-chess-world-champio | The exact format of this years World Chess Championship is not that public but it's pretty clear, that if the match is not decided in the classical games, there will be some kind of tiebreaks. Resolves to Yes, if the match is not decided in the classical games. Resolves to No if there is a winner after the n number of ... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-29 | Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go into tiebreaks? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.3569706065969923], ["2023-01-25", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-26", 0.4034376411349258], ["2023-01-28", 0.2435890046698936], ["2023-02-14", 0.19636291819005172], ["2023-02-18", 0.21205908897718004], ["2023-03-04", 0.19973283739031425], ["2023-03-05", 0.18977959233876626], ["2023-03-13", 0.0010415037... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-batman-win-any-academy-awa | 'The Batman' is nominated for 3 categories: Best Makeup and Hairstyling Best Sound Best Visual Effects If it wins at least one of these categories, this market will resolve to YES. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will 'The Batman' win any Academy Awards at the 95th Academy Awards? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-25", 0.5156929655978073], ["2023-01-26", 0.5660121552249615], ["2023-01-28", 0.7152527459830371], ["2023-01-29", 0.7370501681261276], ["2023-01-30", 0.7537163248754654], ["2023-01-31", 0.6678557432986391], ["2023-01-31", 0.69], ["2023-02-04", 0.3639190836083868], ["2023-02... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-puss-in-boots-the-last-wish-wi | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will 'Puss in Boots: The Last Wish' win the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film at the 95th Academy Awards? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-25", 0.6336860584141638], ["2023-01-25", 0.6721160831290821], ["2023-01-25", 0.71], ["2023-01-25", 0.7200990442174537], ["2023-01-25", 0.7305170652585441], ["2023-01-28", 0.8000000000000002], ["2023-01-28", 0.82], ["2023-01-28", 0.8297136882135739], ["2023-02-05", 0.808746... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-top-gun-maverick-win-multiple | 'Top Gun: Maverick' is nominated for 6 different categories at the 95th Academy Awards. If it wins at least 2 of them this market will resolve to YES. Categories in which it's nominated: Best Picture Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Song Best Sound Best Film Editing Best Visual Effects | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will 'Top Gun: Maverick' win multiple Academy Awards? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-19 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.3959416989537124], ["2023-01-25", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-01-26", 0.47115152644601965], ["2023-01-26", 0.5163187850186434], ["2023-01-27", 0.49000000000000005], ["2023-01-27", 0.510543117064395], ["2023-01-27", 0.52], ["2023-01-27", 0.5280435258594216], ["2023-01-30", 0.62], ["2023-01-30", 0.64], ... | https://manifold.markets/PS/will-ukraine-receive-western-milita | NATO and its member countries have been supplying Ukraine with Soviet-made battle tanks for some time, but now they are on the verge of committing to supplying Western-made battle tanks for the first time. There have been Will Western military aircraft actually be employed by Ukraine in this conflict before a peace ag... | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-23 | Will Ukraine receive Western military aircraft? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-31 | 2023-01-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.509900019603999], ["2023-01-25", 0.5839710356709189], ["2023-01-25", 0.6000000000000001], ["2023-01-25", 0.7095801384824237], ["2023-01-26", 0.377564664513231], ["2023-01-26", 0.45], ["2023-01-26", 0.47999999999999976], ["2023-01-28", 0.44374024808809376], ["2023-01-29", 0.2724735016738863], ["2023-01... | https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-there-be-a-nintendo-direct-in | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-31 | Will there be a Nintendo Direct in January 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-11 | 2023-01-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-26", 0.21265810120517278], ["2023-01-26", 0.22716788408963634], ["2023-01-26", 0.2496467980292829], ["2023-01-26", 0.2835541099929957], ["2023-01-26", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-08", 0.07425091194364988], ["2023-02-08", 0.08000000000000003], ["2023-02-08", 0.0832330828561572], ["2023-02-08", 0.09], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-t-2a2ddde22095 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-11 | Will "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom" have any kind of multiplayer mode? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-01 | 2023-01-26 | ["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlGoR5tOelg&ab_channel=Destiny"] | BINARY | [["2023-01-26", 0.2149802047218818], ["2023-01-26", 0.23191763840428936], ["2023-01-26", 0.25104001861848485], ["2023-01-26", 0.2712744515187854], ["2023-01-26", 0.2784087427944147], ["2023-01-26", 0.31], ["2023-01-26", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-28", 0.2603125607747756], ["2023-01-28", 0.3], ["2023-01-28", 0.37], ... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-the-erin-pxie-vs-sneako-video-5b4dc1983ed9 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlGoR5tOelg&ab_channel=Destiny | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will the Erin + Pxie vs Sneako video get at least 350k views by the end of January? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-01 | 2023-01-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-26", 0.3631077182434205], ["2023-01-26", 0.5344418052256533], ["2023-01-26", 0.7137192704203013], ["2023-01-26", 0.8999999999999999], ["2023-01-27", 0.29000000000000004], ["2023-01-27", 0.34], ["2023-01-27", 0.34], ["2023-01-27", 0.34], ["2023-01-27", 0.3656773403920029], ["2023-01-27", 0.39401290637460074],... | https://manifold.markets/Beninsalsa/will-the-chicago-bulls-make-the-nba | Will the Chicago Bulls make the playoffs? The if they make the play-in and advance to the playoffs, it will resolve yes. If they make the play-in and do not advance to the Playoffs it will resolve no. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-01 | Will The Chicago Bulls make the NBA playoffs? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-14 | 2023-01-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-26", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-01-27", 0.6572047192676472], ["2023-01-27", 0.7916703145315778], ["2023-01-28", 0.8087458976037031], ["2023-01-28", 0.8238207418733219], ["2023-01-28", 0.8371849279402215], ["2023-01-28", 0.8490805333257394], ["2023-01-28", 0.8521561677477837], ["2023-01-28", 0.85971014126357... | https://manifold.markets/brp/will-starship-undergo-a-static-fire-10a85cc90122 | Resolves YES if the engines are lit before 11:59:59 Feb 14 EST, according to video or official statements. Resolves NO on Feb. 15, but resolution may be delayed if it is unclear whether a test occurred, or at what time the engines were lit. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-15 | Will Starship undergo a static fire test of all 33 engines by Feb 14? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-31 | 2023-01-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-26", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-26", 0.6976360559543456], ["2023-01-26", 0.77], ["2023-01-26", 0.7700000000000001], ["2023-01-26", 0.8498250022932653], ["2023-01-27", 0.7865404242594318], ["2023-01-31", 0.539630781934183], ["2023-01-31", 0.6], ["2023-01-31", 0.7276250976202113], ["2023-01-31", 0.74], ["2... | https://manifold.markets/killerbot/will-dan-return-to-moderate-sub-cal | Resolves YES if Dan appears on Destiny's livestream and cohosts/moderates at least one subscriber call-in before market close on Feb 28th @ 11:59pm EST | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-31 | Will Dan return to moderate sub call-in's before the end of Feb? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-08 | 2023-02-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.5260663507109009], ["2023-02-03", 0.5260663507109009], ["2023-02-03", 0.5731882954751446], ["2023-02-03", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-03", 0.6], ["2023-02-05", 0.32004571292168627], ["2023-02-06", 0.28885649752083226], ["2023-02-06", 0.31406664252228406], ["2023-02-08", 0.37131999762764395], ["2023... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-lebron-james-be-the-nbas-allti | Resolution Source | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-08 | Will Lebron James be the NBA's all-time leading scorer by the end of the day on February 8th, 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-09 | 2023-02-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-02", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-02", 0.6842086166112004], ["2023-02-02", 0.8], ["2023-02-02", 0.8410174880763115], ["2023-02-03", 0.3170727357320193], ["2023-02-03", 0.38], ["2023-02-03", 0.4099999999999999], ["2023-02-03", 0.4099999999999999], ["2023-02-03", 0.4099999999999999], ["2023-02-03", 0.5156322... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-bitcoins-price-peak-above-2500 | Resolves YES if at any point during this market being open; Bitcoin is valued at $25,000 or more. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-09 | Will Bitcoin's price peak above $25,000 by next week? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-09 | 2023-02-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-02", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-02", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-02-02", 0.7247426301138283], ["2023-02-02", 0.82], ["2023-02-02", 0.8520710059171597], ["2023-02-04", 0.542217844609217], ["2023-02-04", 0.6470030170374701], ["2023-02-05", 0.08653375991743731], ["2023-02-05", 0.09008885073768552], ["2023-0... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-bitcoins-price-peak-above-2450 | Resolves YES if at any point during this market being open; Bitcoin is valued at $24,500 or more. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-09 | Will Bitcoin's price peak above $24,500 by next week? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-28 | 2023-02-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-02", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-03", 0.6177206035454139], ["2023-02-03", 0.621794520955428], ["2023-02-03", 0.6662590402527865], ["2023-02-05", 0.5], ["2023-02-05", 0.5000000000000001], ["2023-02-05", 0.5000000000000001], ["2023-02-05", 0.5000000000000001], ["2023-02-05", 0.52], ["2023-02-05", 0.54223849... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-preen-still-be-1-for-profit-by | Resolves YES if | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-28 | Will Preen still be #1 for profit by the end of the month? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-14 | 2023-02-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-02", 0.25404863317007315], ["2023-02-02", 0.26000000000000006], ["2023-02-02", 0.27203997854099216], ["2023-02-02", 0.27203997854099216], ["2023-02-02", 0.27203997854099216], ["2023-02-02", 0.2900000000000001], ["2023-02-02", 0.2900000000000001], ["2023-02-02", 0.2900000000000001], ["2023-02-02", 0.305886553... | https://manifold.markets/XComhghall/was-us-inflation-higher-in-january | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-14 | Was U.S. inflation higher in January 2023 than December 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-15 | 2023-02-03 | ["https://www.berkeleyside.org/2023/02/01/berkeley-housing-element-builders-remedy-hcd", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/california-rejected-berkeleys-housing-plan-heres-why-and-the-potential-consequences/ar-AA172LoQ"] | BINARY | [["2023-02-04", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-04", 0.5944391355801544], ["2023-02-04", 0.61], ["2023-02-04", 0.6430293934030076], ["2023-02-04", 0.6430395477333307], ["2023-02-04", 0.6430395477333307], ["2023-02-04", 0.6430395477333307], ["2023-02-04", 0.6496834635084052], ["2023-02-04", 0.65], ["2023-02-04", 0.65], [... | https://manifold.markets/MikeChenSF/will-more-than-10-units-of-housing | The California Department of Housing and Community Development has rejected the Housing Element of the City of Berkeley, CA. This question resolves to yes if a news article reports on at least 10 units of housing being proposed and submitted to the city under the "Builder's Remedy" which can ignore local zoning law on ... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-16 | Will more than 10 units of housing be proposed under the Builder's Remedy in Berkeley, CA before the city approves a complaint Housing Element? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-28 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.4502193570522229], ["2023-02-03", 0.544686527345487], ["2023-02-03", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-02-03", 0.7], ["2023-02-03", 0.7396174608044517], ["2023-02-03", 0.86], ["2023-02-03", 0.9003710865147072], ["2023-02-04", 0.7268785828407555], ["2023-02-04", 0.74], ["2023-02-04", 0.76], ["2023-02-04", 0.... | https://manifold.markets/goldenes56/will-a-new-trailer-for-hollow-knigh | A leaked trailer will not count for the purpose of this market | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-28 | Will a new trailer for Hollow Knight: Silksong be released by the end of this month? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-10 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.77], ["2023-02-03", 0.8], ["2023-02-04", 0.7951854910061448], ["2023-02-04", 0.8860031215346731], ["2023-02-06", 0.8341470432832008], ["2023-02-06", 0.85], ["2023-02-09", 0.7920133504026446], ["2023-02-20", 0.8250660044324059], ["2023-02-22", 0.83], ["2023-02-22", 0.83], ["2023-02-22", 0.83], ["2023-0... | https://manifold.markets/ngzax/will-duke-u-be-seeded-in-the-ncaa-b | This market will close at Midnight on Saturday, March 11, the day before the selections, and resolved after the seeds are announced on the 12th. Resolves to YES if Duke University is seeded. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-12 | Will Duke U. be seeded in the NCAA Basketball Tournament in 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-04 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.14915286333148225], ["2023-02-03", 0.17123287671232867], ["2023-02-03", 0.19581754961487394], ["2023-02-03", 0.19999999999999998], ["2023-02-03", 0.22031923874131254], ["2023-02-03", 0.2591091009033099], ["2023-02-03", 0.28089887640449435], ["2023-02-03", 0.36889883948099533], ["2023-02-03", 0.4098360... | https://manifold.markets/ZZZZZZ/will-this-market-close-at-965-or-mo | This means that the UI would show 97% or greater. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-04 | Will this market close at 96.5% or more? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-04 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.3511851159344825], ["2023-02-03", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-04", 0.2178994707716365], ["2023-02-04", 0.2278648764021422], ["2023-02-04", 0.23], ["2023-02-04", 0.23], ["2023-02-04", 0.23], ["2023-02-04", 0.24000000000000019], ["2023-02-04", 0.24000000000000019], ["2023-02-04", 0.24000000000000019]... | https://manifold.markets/RobinFoster/six-nations-rugby-union-will-scotla | England face Scotland on the opening Saturday of the 2023 Six Nations tournament. Will Scotland win? Kickoff 16:45 UTC at Twickenham on 2023-02-04. Trading remains open in play. Match info: Tournament schedule: Close date updated to 2023-02-04 6:32 pm Close date updated to 2023-02-04 6:45 pm Close date updated to 20... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-04 | Six Nations rugby union: Will Scotland beat England? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-02 | 2023-02-03 | ["https://www.wsj.com/articles/blinken-trip-to-china-postponed-after-spy-balloon-spotted-over-u-s-11675437406?st=1yde61agpkt4kvn&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink"] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.23584905660377364], ["2023-02-03", 0.3350143293694866], ["2023-02-03", 0.3378378378378379], ["2023-02-03", 0.36528927388406984], ["2023-02-03", 0.4251798349468076], ["2023-02-04", 0.26962790842577733], ["2023-02-04", 0.27196092307478203], ["2023-02-04", 0.280036058378423], ["2023-02-04", 0.29517015496... | https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-the-us-retract-its-assessment | https://www.wsj.com/articles/blinken-trip-to-china-postponed-after-spy-balloon-spotted-over-u-s-11675437406?st=1yde61agpkt4kvn&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-02 | Will the US retract its assessment that the Chinese balloon circling Montana was a spy vehicle by end of February? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.3794503662700725], ["2023-02-03", 0.4470281873676901], ["2023-02-03", 0.5275365665194178], ["2023-02-03", 0.6923076923076924], ["2023-02-04", 0.4019484598213255], ["2023-02-04", 0.43390180891909136], ["2023-02-05", 0.3765814196722788], ["2023-02-05", 0.40007948950986155], ["2023-02-05", 0.630000000000... | https://manifold.markets/travis/will-kyrie-irving-be-traded-before | The trade deadline is February 9th, 3 pm ET. If a trade is officially announced, but later falls through due to a failed physical or any other reason, I will resolve to NO. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-09 | Will Kyrie Irving be traded before the Feb 2023 trade deadline? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-10 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-03", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-02-03", 0.9203821656050953], ["2023-02-03", 0.9557285423117141], ["2023-02-03", 0.9580063222849644], ["2023-02-03", 0.9597435140697428], ["2023-02-03", 0.96], ["2023-02-03", 0.9668435013262597], ["2023-02-03", 0.9675867817908615], ["2023-02... | https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/is-it-acceptable-for-a-market-maker-06a71baaf65c | Here's how this works. I'm trying to figure out what Manifold norms & consensus are on various behaviors. A big reason I create markets is because nobody has created them yet, and I want to make bets on those conditions! But sometimes it's tricky to specify a super objective resolution criteria from the get-go, and som... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-11 | Is it acceptable for a market maker to bet on their own market with an OBJECTIVE resolution criteria? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-24 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.6282527881040891], ["2023-02-03", 0.6865596790371112], ["2023-02-03", 0.7309781183918608], ["2023-02-03", 0.7672779129656943], ["2023-02-03", 0.8194307273958709], ["2023-02-03", 0.8393795698500599], ["2023-02-03", 0.8404538591487282], ["2023-02-04", 0.8305331787527647], ["2023-02-04", 0.84143932860332... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-mpox-monkeypox-cases-drop-belo-fd5e9844d876 | Resolves to YES if the reported 7-day rolling average confirmed cases of Mpox (monkeypox) worldwide is less than 20 for any day in February 2023, as reported by Our World in Data: Bidding closes at the end of the month, but I will resolve as soon as there is data for February 28st. Notice that there could be adjustmen... | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-24 | Will mpox (monkeypox) cases drop below 20/day during February? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-24 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-02-03", 0.7930995939684553], ["2023-02-03", 0.7954563052626913], ["2023-02-03", 0.8151571164510167], ["2023-02-04", 0.6860412515415889], ["2023-02-04", 0.7974246660357331], ["2023-02-07", 0.6237794432721236], ["2023-02-07", 0.64], ["2023-02-11", 0.3068421148020799], ["2023-02... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-mpox-monkeypox-cases-drop-belo-3f323eecef90 | Resolves to YES if the reported 7-day rolling average confirmed cases of Mpox (monkeypox) worldwide is less than 20 for any day in February 2023, as reported by Our World in Data: Bidding closes at the end of the month, but I will resolve as soon as there is data for February 28st. Notice that there could be adjustmen... | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-24 | Will mpox (monkeypox) cases drop below 15/day during February? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-28 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.30371034815074544], ["2023-02-03", 0.30769230769230776], ["2023-02-03", 0.3717472118959108], ["2023-02-04", 0.19833706956122868], ["2023-02-04", 0.21600807335762715], ["2023-02-04", 0.3003236857971366], ["2023-02-05", 0.11718681122980873], ["2023-02-05", 0.12999999999999995], ["2023-02-09", 0.11593076... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-mpox-monkeypox-cases-drop-belo | Resolves to YES if the reported 7-day rolling average confirmed cases of Mpox (monkeypox) worldwide is less than 5 for any day in February 2023, as reported by Our World in Data: Bidding closes at the end of the month, but I will resolve as soon as there is data for February 28st. Notice that there could be adjustment... | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-01 | Will mpox (monkeypox) cases drop below 5/day during February? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-28 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.4197833908592207], ["2023-02-03", 0.42441356179707723], ["2023-02-03", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-02-03", 0.5515861251111771], ["2023-02-04", 0.37366128085986566], ["2023-02-04", 0.4], ["2023-02-04", 0.41574687261537396], ["2023-02-05", 0.42999999999999994], ["2023-02-05", 0.42999999999999994], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-mpox-monkeypox-cases-drop-belo-8b10a142a887 | Resolves to YES if the reported 7-day rolling average confirmed cases of Mpox (monkeypox) worldwide is less than 10 for any day in February 2023, as reported by Our World in Data: Bidding closes at the end of the month, but I will resolve as soon as there is data for February 28st. Notice that there could be adjustmen... | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-01 | Will mpox (monkeypox) cases drop below 10/day during February? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-15 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.4348198249729455], ["2023-02-03", 0.4348198249729455], ["2023-02-03", 0.4348198249729455], ["2023-02-03", 0.5223523572107044], ["2023-02-03", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-03", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-02-03", 0.6647278574573932], ["2023-02-03", 0.6705178321957393], ["2023-02-03", 0.70993853872725... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-the-mpox-monkeypox-outbreak-en | Resolves YES if the reported 7-day rolling average confirmed cases of Mpox (monkeypox) worldwide is 0 for any day before March 20 2023, as reported by Our World in Data: | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-20 | Will the mpox (monkeypox) outbreak end before the spring? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-07 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.74293059125964], ["2023-02-03", 0.7830802603036875], ["2023-02-03", 0.8281574976579249], ["2023-02-03", 0.8990576123800491], ["2023-02-03", 0.9537761024362483], ["2023-02-03", 0.9599999999999999], ["2023-02-03", 0.9601542708744351], ["2023-02-04", 0.96], ["2023-02-04", 0.9602983984937936], ["2023-02-0... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-mpox-monkeypox-cases-drop-belo-7f4f2f039e93 | Resolves to YES if the reported 7-day rolling average confirmed cases of Mpox (monkeypox) worldwide is less than 25 for any day in February 2023, as reported by Our World in Data: Bidding closes at the end of the month, but I will resolve as soon as there is data for February 28st. Notice that there could be adjustmen... | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-07 | Will mpox (monkeypox) cases drop below 25/day during February? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-17 | 2023-02-03 | ["https://store.steampowered.com/app/990080/Hogwarts_Legacy/"] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.3588851263507978], ["2023-02-03", 0.4140250391899908], ["2023-02-03", 0.41402503918999084], ["2023-02-03", 0.47641725630505494], ["2023-02-03", 0.5025157552461409], ["2023-02-03", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-04", 0.5], ["2023-02-04", 0.5223278575935071], ["2023-02-04", 0.5224577988110246], ["2023-0... | https://manifold.markets/kottsiek/will-steam-reviews-for-hogwarts-leg-45e2a3632539 | I will check the review page https://store.steampowered.com/app/990080/Hogwarts_Legacy/ Close date updated to 2023-02-18 12:00 am | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-17 | Will Steam Reviews for Hogwarts Legacy be above 80%? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-17 | 2023-02-03 | ["https://store.steampowered.com/app/990080/Hogwarts_Legacy/"] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-03", 0.5999999999999996], ["2023-02-03", 0.6282527881040891], ["2023-02-03", 0.67], ["2023-02-03", 0.694208427433442], ["2023-02-03", 0.7977755743944497], ["2023-02-03", 0.7977755743944497], ["2023-02-03", 0.7977755743944497], ["2023-02-03", 0.8233157207439394], ["2023-02-... | https://manifold.markets/kottsiek/will-steam-reviews-for-hogwarts-leg | I will check the review page https://store.steampowered.com/app/990080/Hogwarts_Legacy/ Close date updated to 2023-02-18 12:00 am | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-17 | Will Steam Reviews for Hogwarts Legacy be above 60%? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-19 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.35260896969675587], ["2023-02-03", 0.36999999999999994], ["2023-02-03", 0.4265390489370566], ["2023-02-03", 0.5182013793793379], ["2023-02-03", 0.6282527881040891], ["2023-02-03", 0.7519343101744227], ["2023-02-03", 0.7600231199568783], ["2023-02-03", 0.7752703149156361], ["2023-02-03", 0.789293192538... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-anastasiya-be-on-stream-again-35538a320aa7 | Resolves YES if Anastasiya is on any destiny hosted stream by close. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-19 | Will Anastasiya be on stream again by the end of February? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-10 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.2000000000000001], ["2023-02-03", 0.3288590604026846], ["2023-02-05", 0.3729652972618035], ["2023-02-18", 0.2854406648935133], ["2023-03-02", 0.2070735051651854], ["2023-03-05", 0.19321481800089604], ["2023-03-08", 0.09016675208561548], ["2023-03-08", 0.1375803374866347], ["2023-03-08", 0.205072620921... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-the-unemployment-rate-in-the-u-b6c1738747af | This market will resolve to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the US for February 2023, published monthly at The unemployment rate in January 2023 was 3.4%. The Employment Situation for February is scheduled to be released on March 10, 2023, at 8:30 a.m. (ET). | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-10 | Will the unemployment rate in the US increase in February? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-09 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.29650912443475747], ["2023-02-03", 0.2995562790441028], ["2023-02-03", 0.346513666914098], ["2023-02-03", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-05", 0.3190620646155256], ["2023-02-14", 0.38000000000000006], ["2023-02-14", 0.39272403262780586], ["2023-03-02", 0.40999999999999986], ["2023-03-02", 0.42141168963... | https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/will-it-be-possible-to-sign-up-for | Resolves Yes if it's still possible to use the twitter API for free one month after the new pricing policy is in place. The free tier needs to be available to the general public (e.g. special free tier for students or special categories does not count) Feb 12, 12:55am: | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-09 | Will it still be possible to use the twitter API for free on March 9 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-05 | 2023-02-03 | ["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxmK9eMNa_0&ab_channel=Vaush"] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.8062616243025417], ["2023-02-03", 0.8358818112425663], ["2023-02-03", 0.89], ["2023-02-03", 0.9], ["2023-02-03", 0.9157740693957777], ["2023-02-03", 0.9271588351130629], ["2023-02-04", 0.8974332630133568], ["2023-02-04", 0.9226955401569602], ["2023-02-04", 0.9503628480735431], ["2023-02-05", 0.9521142... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-on-trump-get-to-1 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxmK9eMNa_0&ab_channel=Vaush | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-05 | Will Vaush's video on Trump get to 100k views or more by Feb 10th? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-05 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.23060667835299545], ["2023-02-03", 0.30769230769230776], ["2023-03-05", 0.0004251968095552165]] | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-valentina-shevchenko-break-the | Resolves to YES if Valentina Shevchenko breaks the record for most consecutive title defenses, (likely 12 consecutive title defenses, beating Demetrious Johnson's record of 11), before close date. If close date arrives and she hasn't yet broken the record, this market will resolve to NO. A draw in a title bout is consi... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-05 | Will Valentina Shevchenko break the record for most consecutive title defenses in the UFC? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-09 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.3378378378378379], ["2023-02-03", 0.4553134726545132], ["2023-02-05", 0.66], ["2023-02-05", 0.7275309709755206], ["2023-02-06", 0.24739173362950065], ["2023-02-06", 0.24739173362950065], ["2023-02-06", 0.24739173362950065], ["2023-02-06", 0.30426802211725734], ["2023-02-06", 0.5302133623658598], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-main-channel-hit-65-mil-30aa84a0efcf | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-09 | Will Vaush's main channel hit 6.5 million views for the last 30 days by Feb 9th? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-03 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.15898251192368837], ["2023-02-03", 0.23584905660377364], ["2023-02-03", 0.2641764749533334], ["2023-02-03", 0.32000000000000006], ["2023-02-03", 0.3499999999999999], ["2023-02-03", 0.3499999999999999], ["2023-02-03", 0.3499999999999999], ["2023-02-03", 0.36861063848037107], ["2023-02-03", 0.4199999999... | https://manifold.markets/zarth/will-factorio-end-before-232023-115 | Will resolve in a YES if Destiny finishes factorio before Feb 3rd 2023 11:59pm EST Feb 2, 10:41pm: | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-03 | Will Factorio end before 2/3/2023 11:59pm? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-01 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.2000000000000001], ["2023-02-04", 0.058823529411764774], ["2023-02-05", 0.053648068669527954], ["2023-03-01", 0.005314045202546555]] | https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/is-senator-marcos-do-val-from-brazi | Feb 2, 11:28pm: | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-01 | Will Brazilian senator Marcos do Val resign from his term before March 1st? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-11 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.4364784531695625], ["2023-02-03", 0.5481930781392547], ["2023-02-03", 0.5667938372723734], ["2023-02-03", 0.5667938372723735], ["2023-02-03", 0.59], ["2023-02-03", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-03", 0.6053248924931629], ["2023-02-03", 0.6095822843307783], ["2023-02-04", 0.5578058252776357], ["2023-02... | https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-maniswipe-be-the-default-on-mo-91a441d27e31 | Lasted longer than I thought it would. I plan to open the Manifold app on Saturday, February 11 at exactly noon PST to check. If I forget or am slightly late, I'll resolve based on my best guess on what would have happened at noon. See previously: General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between m... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-11 | Will Maniswipe be the default on mobile on Sat., Feb 11? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-01 | 2023-02-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-03", 0.4900999803960008], ["2023-02-07", 0.7420002692433317], ["2023-02-08", 0.26400242667985724], ["2023-02-08", 0.2769345956114943], ["2023-02-08", 0.3095341285724673], ["2023-02-08", 0.551990558622716], ["2023-02-09", 0.42421629849949416], ["2023-02-10", 0.3365698724170385], ["2023-02-11", 0.4160388827134... | https://manifold.markets/whenhaveiever/will-the-canadian-dollar-be-worth-m-8c76a28d042d | Market will be resolved based on this page: If the listed rate for March 1, 2023 at 00:00 UTC is 1 CAD > 0.75 USD, this market will resolve to YES. If the listed rate for March 1, 2023 at 00:00 UTC is 1 CAD ≤ 0.75 USD, this market will resolve to NO. Feb 2, 7:15pm: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-01 | Will the Canadian dollar be worth more than US$0.75 at the end of February 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-04 | 2023-02-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-04", 0.03505970041814094], ["2023-02-04", 0.18278569579763287], ["2023-02-04", 0.23], ["2023-02-04", 0.2356173517852696], ["2023-02-04", 0.27290743126242134], ["2023-02-04", 0.3024286277353266], ["2023-02-04", 0.31865254195784326], ["2023-02-04", 0.35638875035364004], ["2023-02-04", 0.42278841392931277], ["2... | https://manifold.markets/AlexLiesman/will-newcastle-beat-west-ham-in-the | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-04 | Will Newcastle beat West Ham in the premier league today? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-02-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-04", 0.1000000000000001], ["2023-02-04", 0.11999999999999997], ["2023-02-05", 0.11015559074486128], ["2023-03-04", 0.10314326132233298], ["2023-03-13", 0.0006083599732521923], ["2023-03-13", 0.011460538693970486], ["2023-03-13", 0.06485989578215834]] | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-any-film-with-multiple-nominat | There are 15 different films with multiple nominations at the 95th Academy Awards. If any of those 15 win in every category in which it has at least one nomination, this market will resolve to YES. Films with multiple nominations: Everything Everywhere All At Once (11 noms) All Quiet on the Western Front (9 noms) The B... | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will any film with multiple nominations at the 95th Academy Awards win in every category it has a nomination? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-28 | 2023-02-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-05", 0.4836109618484686], ["2023-02-05", 0.49705900965811306], ["2023-02-05", 0.52], ["2023-02-05", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-05", 0.6049161970673623], ["2023-02-05", 0.6349718658198789], ["2023-02-05", 0.6441502467921827], ["2023-02-05", 0.7046292065945055], ["2023-02-27", 0.6768821454980191], ["2023-0... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-more-than-one-person-with-a-ba | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-28 | Will more than one person with a badge be following me by the end of the month? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-02 | 2023-02-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-05", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-05", 0.5901639344262295], ["2023-02-05", 0.6067212281360219], ["2023-02-05", 0.6509084335505189], ["2023-02-05", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-02-08", 0.6067212281360216], ["2023-02-08", 0.6067212281360218], ["2023-02-08", 0.6136903609123258], ["2023-02-08", 0.64000398543402... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-asa-hutchison-seek-the-gop-nom | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-02 | Will Asa Hutchison seek the GOP nomination in 2024? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-22 | 2023-02-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-05", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-05", 0.74293059125964], ["2023-02-05", 0.79775074314811], ["2023-02-12", 0.8352713610265244], ["2023-02-12", 0.8762201136291987], ["2023-02-13", 0.9040920312777864], ["2023-02-14", 0.91], ["2023-02-14", 0.9196777741643679], ["2023-02-14", 0.9241060975367011], ["2023-02-18"... | https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-the-fed-raise-benchmark-rates-fdf49d26d3ea | March 21-22 | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-22 | Will the Fed raise benchmark rates by 25bps in March? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-22 | 2023-02-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-05", 0.15468395668923857], ["2023-02-05", 0.17084079707088815], ["2023-02-05", 0.25706940874035994], ["2023-02-05", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-06", 0.056955127945356544], ["2023-02-06", 0.059320038375120225], ["2023-02-07", 0.07999999999999995], ["2023-02-07", 0.09965615923848316], ["2023-02-07", 0.10999... | https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-the-fed-raise-benchmark-rates-1c0bf134e9bb | March 21-22 | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-22 | Will the Fed raise benchmark rates by 50bps in March? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-02 | 2023-02-11 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-11", 0.45692823363244756], ["2023-02-11", 0.5396734178344023], ["2023-02-11", 0.5753869547635108], ["2023-02-11", 0.6059268600252206], ["2023-02-11", 0.6330332607694484], ["2023-02-11", 0.8062616243025417], ["2023-02-12", 0.43446105607108615], ["2023-02-12", 0.5485386281540743], ["2023-03-02", 0.974753162722... | https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-ed-sheeran-release-a-studio-al | Studio albums so far, pronounced mathematically inconsistently: His current tour, which started in April 2022, is called the +–=÷× Tour (note the minus sign). Its North American leg has not begun yet. Some more speculation: General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria a... | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-06 | Will Ed Sheeran release a studio album in 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-02-11 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-11", 0.3717472118959108], ["2023-02-11", 0.46905895767238365], ["2023-02-11", 0.5442475552040027], ["2023-02-11", 0.5936573170705833], ["2023-02-12", 0.4791786308704334], ["2023-02-12", 0.52], ["2023-02-12", 0.52], ["2023-02-12", 0.52], ["2023-02-12", 0.62], ["2023-02-12", 0.62], ["2023-02-12", 0.62], ["2023... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-movie-tar-win-any-oscars-a | 'Tár' has nominations in 6 categories at the 95th Academy Awards. This market will resolve to YES if it wins any of them. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will the movie 'Tár' win any Oscars at the 95th Academy Awards? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-13 | 2023-02-11 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-11", 0.4264249482106527], ["2023-02-11", 0.4708984742889434], ["2023-02-11", 0.4855450528691259], ["2023-02-11", 0.5188502877467781], ["2023-02-11", 0.5972712805642897], ["2023-02-12", 0.40757737783986486], ["2023-02-12", 0.42752652749107756], ["2023-02-12", 0.43944106159295787], ["2023-02-12", 0.44217666392... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-philadelphia-eagles-win-th-f98f2a57bc4a | Resolves YES if the Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl LVII 2023. Resolves NO otherwise (if the Kansas City Chiefs win). There are already several markets on this but they all seemed to be free-answer or multiple-choice, creating this as a yes/no market for better trading. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-14 | 2023-02-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-12", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-12", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-02-12", 0.7156533322068341], ["2023-02-12", 0.7766106120773193], ["2023-02-12", 0.7766106120773193], ["2023-02-12", 0.7766106120773193], ["2023-02-12", 0.8021160535258687], ["2023-02-12", 0.8099999999999999], ["2023-02-12", 0.84901214814084... | https://manifold.markets/BreezeIce/will-this-market-have-more-yes-hold | If the number of YES holders is greater than the number of NO holders when closing, resolves YES (Bots are not included) Close date updated to 2023-02-14 12:05 am | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-14 | Will this market have more YES holders than NO? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-26 | 2023-02-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-12", 0.5196003074558031], ["2023-02-12", 0.6002043380583241], ["2023-02-13", 0.5896974366203602], ["2023-02-19", 0.6683200502129153], ["2023-03-23", 0.6062150788767589], ["2023-03-23", 0.7185777378540921], ["2023-03-24", 0.6818538838264859], ["2023-03-24", 0.7500541890346655], ["2023-03-25", 0.70325386893404... | https://manifold.markets/EsbenKran/will-there-be-more-than-100-submitt | Hackathon page: AI Governance Historically, the largest amount of submtiters has been 75 at For: Against | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-26 | Will there be more than 100 submitting participants of the AI governance hackathon (March 24-26) from Alignment Jam? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-19 | 2023-02-12 | ["https://youtu.be/rUIQK4uHyHIhttps://youtu.be/rUIQK4uHyHI"] | BINARY | [["2023-02-12", 0.6923076923076924], ["2023-02-12", 0.8275243306904856], ["2023-02-13", 0.7546171447948721], ["2023-02-14", 0.49062372327668713], ["2023-02-14", 0.5446379928893271], ["2023-02-14", 0.5559559581705847], ["2023-02-14", 0.59], ["2023-02-14", 0.8427361025672198], ["2023-02-15", 0.25889090131623294], ["2023-... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-on-the-ohio-chemi | https://youtu.be/rUIQK4uHyHIhttps://youtu.be/rUIQK4uHyHI | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-20 | Will Vaush's video on the Ohio chemical disaster get 60k views by Feb 19th? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-13 | 2023-02-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-12", 0.2808988764044944], ["2023-02-12", 0.344530929946743], ["2023-02-13", 0.008185505055421247], ["2023-02-13", 0.07864061315925248], ["2023-02-13", 0.110479202289063], ["2023-02-13", 0.11773632477599597], ["2023-02-13", 0.2070420098007567], ["2023-02-13", 0.22186941140530608], ["2023-02-13", 0.34071913975... | https://manifold.markets/BreezeIce/will-the-price-of-bitcoin-go-back-u | Resolves YES if Bitcoin goes to or above 21,950$ by 11:59pm EST | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin go back up to $21,950 by tonight? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-17 | 2023-02-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-12", 0.3316558849797784], ["2023-02-12", 0.39925068067739183], ["2023-02-12", 0.42], ["2023-02-12", 0.4461671961502119], ["2023-02-12", 0.4836109618484686], ["2023-02-12", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-13", 0.45483712243502317], ["2023-02-13", 0.47], ["2023-02-13", 0.52], ["2023-02-13", 0.52], ["2023-02-13"... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-antman-and-the-wasp-quantumani-a745b78c9f57 | Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is a 2023 American superhero film based on Marvel Comics featuring the characters Scott Lang / Ant-Man and Hope Pym / Wasp. The movie premiered in Los Angeles on February 6, 2023, and will be released in the United States on February 17, 2023, as the first film of Phase Five of the MCU... | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-17 | Will 'Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania' get Metascore greater than 85? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-09 | 2023-02-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-12", 0.36911329766557666], ["2023-02-12", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-13", 0.43454988783455745], ["2023-02-22", 0.48405176933972005], ["2023-03-01", 0.3859027630779149], ["2023-03-02", 0.4308798860145404], ["2023-03-02", 0.55], ["2023-03-02", 0.5676042563040888], ["2023-03-02", 0.6002078328774476], ["2023... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-israel-adesanya-beat-alex-pere | Alex Pereira is scheduled to fight Israel Adesanya at UFC 287 on the 8th of April, 2023, in Miami, Florida, USA. They will be fighting for the UFC Middleweight title. This would be their second fight under mma rules. If Adesanya wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Pereira wins, or if the fight is a draw, this mar... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-09 | Will Israel Adesanya beat Alex Pereira at UFC 287? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-20 | 2023-02-12 | ["https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/"] | BINARY | [["2023-02-12", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-02-12", 0.7191011235955054], ["2023-02-12", 0.764150943396226], ["2023-02-12", 0.7920274920924883], ["2023-02-16", 0.8312503934532123], ["2023-02-16", 0.86], ["2023-02-16", 0.8723530452822217], ["2023-02-17", 0.8670403288289028], ["2023-02-17", 0.8734651675784734], ["2023-02-... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/february-2023-will-there-be-more-th | https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/ //datacheck on March 1, regardless of 'last update' | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-20 | February 2023: Will there be more than 5230 exoplanets confirmed? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-05 | 2023-02-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-12", 0.3378378378378379], ["2023-02-12", 0.4535780633799311], ["2023-02-14", 0.38504309449239293], ["2023-02-14", 0.4301187004883201], ["2023-02-19", 0.4486469630202506], ["2023-02-21", 0.4020914564475866], ["2023-02-26", 0.5713737005207], ["2023-02-28", 0.40964342970415346], ["2023-03-01", 0.332036775967115... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-ciryl-gane-beat-jon-jones-at-u | Ciryl Gane is scheduled to fight Jon Jones in a mixed martial arts bout at UFC 285 on the 4th of March, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA. They will be fighting for the vacant UFC Heavyweight Championship. If Gane wins this fight, then this market will resolve to YES. If Jones wins this fight, or if the fight is a draw, o... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-05 | Will Ciryl Gane beat Jon Jones at UFC 285? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-19 | 2023-02-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-12", 0.3419639766997815], ["2023-02-12", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-14", 0.5022050183366727], ["2023-03-17", 0.47925727245344446], ["2023-03-18", 0.2276519133176747], ["2023-03-18", 0.30119885803960406], ["2023-03-18", 0.3172987624287616], ["2023-03-19", 0.95], ["2023-03-19", 0.9974386941627348]] | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-leon-edwards-beat-kamaru-usman | Leon Edwards is scheduled to fight Kamaru Usman for a third time at UFC 286 on the 18th of March, 2023 in London, England. They will be fighting for the UFC Welterweight Championship. If Edwards wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Usman wins, or the bout is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. In the event tha... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-19 | Will Leon Edwards beat Kamaru Usman in their third fight? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-30 | 2023-02-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-12", 0.6282527881040891], ["2023-04-23", 0.7478293662152867], ["2023-04-24", 0.8838234321313949], ["2023-04-27", 0.9003360235341822], ["2023-04-28", 0.9204558733800738], ["2023-04-29", 0.9031683213652341], ["2023-05-07", 0.9107715770089231], ["2023-05-20", 0.940082837142074], ["2023-05-20", 0.941497900438443... | https://manifold.markets/BRTD/will-minnesota-governor-tim-walz-si | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-30 | Will Minnesota Governor Tim Walz sign a bill legalizing recreational marijuana in Minnesota by the end of May 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-17 | 2023-02-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-12", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-12", 0.420673715913603], ["2023-02-12", 0.4292176749963086], ["2023-02-12", 0.44516978848787003], ["2023-02-13", 0.4815130160428433], ["2023-02-14", 0.4315722677367415], ["2023-02-14", 0.45999999999999996], ["2023-02-18", 0.48], ["2023-02-18", 0.48], ["2023-02-18", 0.48], ... | https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-the-boston-marathon-fastest-ci | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-18 | Will the Boston marathon fastest circuit time of 2:03:02 be broken in this year's edition? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-21 | 2023-02-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-12", 0.3312687891734627], ["2023-02-12", 0.37], ["2023-02-12", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-02-12", 0.593260657472083], ["2023-02-12", 0.6126153841966185], ["2023-02-12", 0.6200000000000001], ["2023-02-12", 0.6200000000000001], ["2023-02-12", 0.6200000000000001], ["2023-02-12", 0.649046051253179], ["2023-02-1... | https://manifold.markets/Lorenzo/will-william-macaskill-be-a-speaker | Follow-up on If he's announced as a speaker but cancels last minute this resolves as NO. If he does a fireside chat/Q&A this resolves YES. | Education & Research | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-21 | Will William MacAskill be a speaker at EA Global: London May 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-21 | 2023-02-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-12", 0.5000000000000001], ["2023-02-12", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-12", 0.5901639344262295], ["2023-02-12", 0.6621621621621622], ["2023-02-13", 0.7191011235955056], ["2023-02-16", 0.5444452168110923], ["2023-02-17", 0.5929764465927002], ["2023-02-18", 0.46910980740155794], ["2023-02-18", 0.51], ["2023-0... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-antman-and-the-wasp-quantumani | 'Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania' (2022) is an upcoming American superhero film produced by Marvel Studios. It is the third installment of the Ant-Man series of films, and the 31st film of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. It is scheduled for theatrical release in the USA on February 17, 2023. This is a market on how mu... | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-21 | Will 'Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania' gross more than $120 million domestically on its 4-day opening weekend? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-26 | 2023-02-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-12", 0.6036586290650203], ["2023-02-12", 0.7191011235955056], ["2023-02-16", 0.5105421282554917], ["2023-02-19", 0.21060365084012436], ["2023-02-19", 0.24000000000000002], ["2023-02-22", 0.39], ["2023-02-22", 0.4360309338523087], ["2023-02-22", 0.43618477808103506], ["2023-02-22", 0.43618477808103506], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-jake-paul-beat-tommy-fury | Jake Paul is scheduled to fight Tommy Fury (half-brother of Tyson Fury) in a professional boxing match on the 26th of February 2023, in Diriyah, Saudi Arabia. If Paul wins this match then this market will resolve to YES. If Fury wins, the match is a draw, or the match ends in a No Decision/No Contest, then this market ... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-27 | Will Jake Paul beat Tommy Fury? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-19 | 2023-02-12 | ["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0IPgJjFNNA&ab_channel=TheVaushPit"] | BINARY | [["2023-02-12", 0.271119293294288], ["2023-02-12", 0.32], ["2023-02-12", 0.34644061518036395], ["2023-02-12", 0.6958886922621773], ["2023-02-12", 0.74293059125964], ["2023-02-12", 0.7553125046044239], ["2023-02-14", 0.21361573901345285], ["2023-02-14", 0.23], ["2023-02-14", 0.23], ["2023-02-14", 0.23], ["2023-02-16", 0... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-about-fd-signifer | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0IPgJjFNNA&ab_channel=TheVaushPit | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-19 | Will Vaush's video about FD Signifer get 100k views by Feb 18th? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-13 | 2023-02-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-12", 0.4217402068416487], ["2023-02-12", 0.437084415476174], ["2023-02-12", 0.43999999999999995], ["2023-02-12", 0.4573558618235481], ["2023-02-12", 0.4712631953065361], ["2023-02-12", 0.47592017196505654], ["2023-02-12", 0.49290815813298444], ["2023-02-12", 0.5], ["2023-02-12", 0.5006631465241949], ["2023-0... | https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/will-either-team-end-with-a-prime-n | (extending the close time, there's no reason for it to close so soon) Close date updated to 2023-02-12 9:59 pm Close date updated to 2023-02-12 12:00 am | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-12 | Will either team end with a prime number of points in the Super Bowl LVII? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-12 | 2023-02-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-12", 0.1000000000000001], ["2023-02-12", 0.10485572102270435], ["2023-02-12", 0.10888129306334819], ["2023-02-12", 0.11999999999999997], ["2023-02-12", 0.12000000000000005], ["2023-02-12", 0.12339478079254727], ["2023-02-12", 0.1663876801865766], ["2023-02-12", 0.1663876801865766], ["2023-02-12", 0.166387680... | https://manifold.markets/SamBlack/will-sam-get-to-5-wins-this-draft-e29adc92971f | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-12 | Will Sam get to 5 wins this draft? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-14 | 2023-02-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-13", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-02-13", 0.9203821656050954], ["2023-02-13", 0.9237656658441844], ["2023-02-13", 0.9508840864440078], ["2023-02-14", 0.0229374912971579], ["2023-02-14", 0.02999999999999998], ["2023-02-14", 0.02999999999999998], ["2023-02-14", 0.02999999999999998], ["2023-02-14", 0.07158646788... | https://manifold.markets/SamBlack/will-sam-get-to-5-wins-this-draft-49ef3e4a5c27 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-14 | Will Sam get to 5 wins this draft? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-13 | 2023-02-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-13", 0.00017973004938460943], ["2023-02-13", 0.00018640210409094803], ["2023-02-13", 0.00018868213094491414], ["2023-02-13", 0.0001938630865608835], ["2023-02-13", 0.00019880999181783762], ["2023-02-13", 0.00019880999181783762], ["2023-02-13", 0.00019880999181783762], ["2023-02-13", 0.00020033606181416643], ... | https://manifold.markets/GappyV/will-the-forsen-run-of-213-at-605-p | complete = beating ender dragon | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | WILL THE FORSEN RUN OF 2/13 AT 6:05 PM EST BE COMPLETED? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-01 | 2023-02-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-13", 0.343855772137048], ["2023-02-13", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-13", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-13", 0.44269112043356873], ["2023-02-13", 0.49711749672859334], ["2023-02-14", 0.3301869325479323], ["2023-02-14", 0.3301869325479324], ["2023-02-14", 0.33047791104297725], ["2023-02-14", 0.35], ["2023-... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-the-us-claim-any-of-the-object-de8f7d0665c1 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-01 | Will the US claim any of the objects shot down over North America in February to be civilian? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-01 | 2023-02-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-13", 0.25921273062405487], ["2023-02-13", 0.3087846211775638], ["2023-02-13", 0.337837837837838], ["2023-02-13", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-14", 0.1990194073968964], ["2023-02-14", 0.20385265804785305], ["2023-02-14", 0.21], ["2023-02-14", 0.24106245898290754], ["2023-02-14", 0.25], ["2023-02-14", 0.25],... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-the-us-claim-any-of-the-object-d2ede2b4d57c | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-01 | Will the US claim any of the objects shot down over North America in February to be Russian? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-01 | 2023-02-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-13", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-13", 0.6923076923076923], ["2023-02-14", 0.48829644503923736], ["2023-02-14", 0.5215056470090211], ["2023-02-14", 0.522539498863643], ["2023-02-14", 0.6039631564297077], ["2023-02-14", 0.6039631564297077], ["2023-02-14", 0.6552550888583671], ["2023-02-14", 0.69230769230769... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-debris-be-recovered-from-all-t | Apparently they have yet to recover any debris from the objects downed after the Chinese spy balloon. Any additional objects shot down between now and the end of the month are included in this question. Recovery will need to be made by the end of April for all objects to resolve YES. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-01 | Will debris be recovered from all the objects the US military shoots down in February by the end of April? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-01 | 2023-02-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-13", 0.0797371021521787], ["2023-02-13", 0.09999999999999996], ["2023-02-13", 0.123680685480384], ["2023-02-13", 0.2000000000000001], ["2023-02-13", 0.337837837837838], ["2023-02-13", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-14", 0.07478994246678507], ["2023-02-14", 0.07510446804942512], ["2023-02-14", 0.0843600319280... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-the-us-claim-any-of-the-object | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-01 | Will the US claim any of the objects shot down over North America in February to be Iranian? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-21 | 2023-02-13 | ["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyvIyqVGqTM&ab_channel=TheVaushPit"] | BINARY | [["2023-02-13", 0.49878959680490814], ["2023-02-13", 0.6269335178939265], ["2023-02-13", 0.6282527881040891], ["2023-02-13", 0.7086492047850275], ["2023-02-13", 0.72], ["2023-02-13", 0.7322221758650966], ["2023-02-13", 0.74], ["2023-02-13", 0.753591073549706], ["2023-02-13", 0.7560993097258549], ["2023-02-14", 0.403777... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-about-the-keffals | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyvIyqVGqTM&ab_channel=TheVaushPit | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-21 | Will Vaush's video about the Keffals drama get 80k views by Feb 20th? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-27 | 2023-02-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-13", 0.28679652942487227], ["2023-02-13", 0.3378378378378379], ["2023-02-16", 0.32944542326570786], ["2023-03-05", 0.3983840465489454], ["2023-03-05", 0.4532538388381406], ["2023-03-06", 0.49], ["2023-03-06", 0.5047563965792959], ["2023-03-10", 0.44930329012807174], ["2023-03-14", 0.25322290770817546], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/vmjusto/will-bryce-young-be-the-first-playe | Bryce Young is a quarterback prospect from the University of Alabama, winner of the Heisman Trophy in 2021. This resolves as YES regardless of which team selects him, as long as he is the first pick overall. This resolves as N/A if he cannot be selected in the 2023 NFL Draft for any reason. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-28 | Will Bryce Young be the first player selected overall in the 2023 NFL Draft? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-02-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-02-13", 0.37661999306052735], ["2023-02-13", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-14", 0.20091471352696194], ["2023-02-15", 0.17906261137005905], ["2023-02-18", 0.19032082511917717], ["2023-03-04", 0.15638474066687674], ["2023-03-10", 0.15073008674823485], ["2023-03-12", 0.021715279020704224], ["2023-03-12", 0.029999... | https://manifold.markets/BenGoldhaber/will-the-airport-in-lima-peru-be-cl | There's been protests throughout Peru in the last few months. While regions of the country have been shutdown/travel halted, the capital of Lima has mostly continued operating. What is the likelihood that by March 13th, 2023, the international airport in Lima will have been shut (for at least one day) and flights halte... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will the airport in Lima, Peru, be closed sometime in the next month? | manifold | 0 |
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