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# Deceptively Aligned Mesa-Optimizers: It's Not Funny If I Have To Explain It
**I.**
Our goal here is to popularize obscure and hard-to-understand areas of AI alignment, and surely this meme (retweeted by Eliezer last week) qualifies:
So let’s try to understand the incomprehensible meme! Our main source will be Hubi... | Scott Alexander | 51970484 | Deceptively Aligned Mesa-Optimizers: It's Not Funny If I Have To Explain It | acx |
# Open Thread 219
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. You can also talk at the unofficial ACX community [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), or [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/inde... | Scott Alexander | 51978745 | Open Thread 219 | acx |
# Spring Meetups In Seventy Cities
Lots of people only want to go to meetups a few times a year. And they all want to go to the same big meetups as all the other people who only go a few times a year. In 2021, we set up one big well-telegraphed meetup in the fall as a Schelling point for these people.
This year, we’r... | mingyuan | 51957287 | Spring Meetups In Seventy Cities | acx |
# Dictator Book Club: Xi Jinping
###### [Previous entries: [Erdogan](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-new-sultan?s=w), [Modi](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-modi-a-political-biography?s=w), [Orban](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/dictator-book-club-orban?s=w)]
*[The Third... | Scott Alexander | 51342215 | Dictator Book Club: Xi Jinping | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Self-Determination
**1:** [Rosemary](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/who-gets-self-determination/comment/5788664) (writes [Parallel Republic](https://parallelrepublic.substack.com/)) says:
> I think a preference for the status quo has to weigh in to some extent.
>
> All else be... | Scott Alexander | 51617215 | Highlights From The Comments On Self-Determination | acx |
# Yudkowsky Contra Christiano On AI Takeoff Speeds
**Previously in series:** [Yudkowsky Contra Ngo On Agents](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/practically-a-book-review-yudkowsky?s=w), [Yudkowsky Contra Cotra On Biological Anchors](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/biological-anchors-a-trick-that-might?s=w)
... | Scott Alexander | 49755960 | Yudkowsky Contra Christiano On AI Takeoff Speeds | acx |
# Open Thread 218
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. You can also talk at the unofficial ACX community [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), or [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/inde... | Scott Alexander | 51544727 | Open Thread 218 | acx |
# The Low-Hanging Fruit Argument: Models And Predictions
A followup to [Contra Hoel On Aristocratic Tutoring](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/contra-hoel-on-aristocratic-tutoring?s=w):
Imagine scientists venturing off in some research direction. At the dawn of history, they don’t need to venture very far before... | Scott Alexander | 51086762 | The Low-Hanging Fruit Argument: Models And Predictions | acx |
# Idol Words
###### *(with apologies to [Raymond Smullyan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hardest_Logic_Puzzle_Ever) and the rest of the omniscient idol riddle tradition)*
The woman was wearing sunglasses, a visor, a little too much lipstick, and a camera around her neck. “Excuse me,” she asked. “Is this the templ... | Scott Alexander | 50796763 | Idol Words | acx |
# Who Gets Self-Determination?
**I.**
LSE: [Fact-Checking The Kremlin’s Version Of Russian History](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lseih/2020/07/01/there-is-no-ukraine-fact-checking-the-kremlins-version-of-ukrainian-history/):
> The notion that Ukraine is not a country in its own right, but a historical part of Russia, app... | Scott Alexander | 51096603 | Who Gets Self-Determination? | acx |
# Information Markets, Decision Markets, Attention Markets, Action Markets
###### [thumbnail image credit: excellent nature photographer [Eco Suparman](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2128668/Amazing-nature-Like-mantis-needs-bicycle-Incredible-close-shot-praying-mantis-Borneo-makes-viewers-double-take.html), ... | Scott Alexander | 51147776 | Information Markets, Decision Markets, Attention Markets, Action Markets | acx |
# Open Thread 217
**1:** Remember: entries to the [2022 ACX Book Review Contest](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-contest-rules-2022?s=w) are due April 5th. You can send them in with [this form](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/18ft8ZxQcKFwMsi_DZINn7d7VIso_y1Armfr59YeOGLE/edit).
**2:** Theeffective al... | Scott Alexander | 51108564 | Open Thread 217 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Justice Creep
A lot of comments on [Justice Creep](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/justice-creep?s=w) fell into three categories:
**First**, people who thought some variety of: yes, all this stuff is definitely a justice issue, and it’s good that language is starting to reflect... | Scott Alexander | 50861569 | Highlights From The Comments On Justice Creep | acx |
# Men Will Literally Have Completely Different Mental Processes Instead Of Going To Therapy
People are debating “therapy: good or bad?” again:
There are dozens of kinds of therapy: reliving your traumas, practicing mindfulness, analyzing dreams, uncovering your latent desire to have sex with your mother. But most peo... | Scott Alexander | 50666668 | Men Will Literally Have Completely Different Mental Processes Instead Of Going To Therapy | acx |
# Contra Hoel On Aristocratic Tutoring
**I.**
Erik Hoel has an interesting new essay, [Why We Stopped Making Einsteins](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/why-we-stopped-making-einsteins?s=w). It argues that an apparent decline in great minds is caused by the replacement of aristocratic tutoring by ordinary education.
... | Scott Alexander | 50658926 | Contra Hoel On Aristocratic Tutoring | acx |
# Mantic Monday 3/21/22
### Warcasting
Changes in Ukraine prediction markets since [my last post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ukraine-warcasting?s=w) March 14:
1. [Will Kiev fall to Russian forces by April 2022](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9939/kyiv-to-fall-to-russian-forces-by-april-2022/)?: **14%... | Scott Alexander | 50764746 | Mantic Monday 3/21/22 | acx |
# Open Thread 216
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:
**1:** I’ve gotten some requests from Russian/Ukranian readers in various stages ... | Scott Alexander | 50671736 | Open Thread 216 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Zulresso
Thanks to everyone who commented on [Zounds! It’s Zulresso and Zuranolone](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone) and on the followup [Progesterone Megadoses Might Be A Cheap Zulresso Substitute](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/progest... | Scott Alexander | 50266343 | Highlights From The Comments On Zulresso | acx |
# Justice Creep
Freddie deBoer says we’re a [planet of cops](https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/planet-of-cops?s=r). Maybe that’s why justice is eating the world.
Helping the poor becomes [economic justice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_justice). If they’re minorities, then it’s [racial justice](https://ww... | Scott Alexander | 49709750 | Justice Creep | acx |
# Mantic Monday 3/14/22
### Ukraine Warcasting
Changes in Ukraine prediction markets since [my last post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ukraine-warcasting?s=w) February 28:
1. [Will Kiev fall to Russian forces by April 2022](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9939/kyiv-to-fall-to-russian-forces-by-april-202... | Scott Alexander | 50284425 | Mantic Monday 3/14/22 | acx |
# Open Thread 215
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** The effective altruist movement [is offering](https://effectiveid... | Scott Alexander | 50261407 | Open Thread 215 | acx |
# Progesterone Megadoses Might Be A Cheap Zulresso Substitute
Earlier this week [we talked about Zulresso](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone?s=w), a new medication for post-partum depression. It works well, but it can only be administered at a few special hospitals, and costs $35... | Scott Alexander | 49659230 | Progesterone Megadoses Might Be A Cheap Zulresso Substitute | acx |
# Advice For Unwoke Academic?
An academic recently asked me for advice. A lucky career development has now made him almost un-fire-able, and he wants to join the fight for academic freedom. We talked about two different strategies:
* **Fabian Strategy:** Become a beloved pillar of his college community. Volunteer for... | Scott Alexander | 48318122 | Advice For Unwoke Academic? | acx |
# Zounds! It's Zulresso and Zuranolone!
#### 1: What is Zulresso?
Wikipedia [describes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cthulhu_Mythos_deities) Zulresso as “A bat-winged, armless toad with tentacles instead of a face... ” - no! sorry! That’s Zvilpogghua, one of the Great Old Ones from the Lovecraft mythos.
Zulresso is... | Scott Alexander | 49209345 | Zounds! It's Zulresso and Zuranolone! | acx |
# Ukraine Thoughts And Links
*Disclaimer: I am not an expert in international relations or military strategy, which is fine. In democracies, it’s normal and correct for ordinary citizens to have opinions on important world issues, and demands that they not do so are ahistorical and dangerous. Still, take anything I sa... | Scott Alexander | 49910542 | Ukraine Thoughts And Links | acx |
# Open Thread 214
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:
**1:** Crypto exchange FTX announces the launch of the Future Fund ([blog announc... | Scott Alexander | 49849995 | Open Thread 214 | acx |
# What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality?
Let’s talk about this tweet:
The backstory: Steven Pinker wrote a book about rationality. The book concludes it is good. People should learn how to be more rational, and then we will have fewer problems.
Howard Gardner, [well-known wrong person](https://en... | Scott Alexander | 48291410 | What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality? | acx |
# Microaddictions
Everyone always says you should “eat mindfully”. I tried this once and it was weird. For example, I noticed that only the first few bites of a tasty food actually tasted good. After that I habituated and lost it. Not only that, but there was a brief period when I finished eating the food which was be... | Scott Alexander | 47584934 | Microaddictions | acx |
# Ukraine Warcasting
Yeah, I know you’re saturated with Ukraine content. Yeah, I know everyone wants to relate their hobbyhorse to Ukraine. But I think it’s genuinely useful to talk about prediction markets right now.
Current conventional wisdom is that the invasion was a miscalculation on Putin’s part, after he surr... | Scott Alexander | 49526673 | Ukraine Warcasting | acx |
# Open Thread 213
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-culture-wars, even-numbered threads will be culture-wars-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** Eli Lifland and Misha Yagudin have asked me to announce t... | Scott Alexander | 49474491 | Open Thread 213 | acx |
# Austin Meetup Correction
Austin meetup is still this Sunday, 2/27, 12-3.
But **the location has been switched to Moontower Cider Company at 1916 Tillery St**.
The organizer is still sbarta@gmail.com , and you can still contact him if you have any questions.
As per usual procedure, everyone is invited. Please feel... | Scott Alexander | 49371094 | Austin Meetup Correction | acx |
# Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work
## Introduction
I've been trying to review and summarize Eliezer Yudkowksy's recent dialogues on AI safety. Previously in sequence: [Yudkowsky Contra Ngo On Agents](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/practically-a-book-review-yudkowsky). Now we’re up to Yu... | Scott Alexander | 47594966 | Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work | acx |
# Links For February
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will... | Scott Alexander | 49041403 | Links For February | acx |
# Play Money And Reputation Systems
For now, US-based prediction markets [can’t use real money](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarket?utm_source=url) without clearing near-impossible regulatory hurdles. So smaller and more innovative projects will have to stick with some kind of play money or... | Scott Alexander | 49096803 | Play Money And Reputation Systems | acx |
# Open Thread 212
**1:** My spam filter has gone rogue and is blocking lots of important messages from real people. If you sent me something important and I haven’t responded, sorry, it’s probably in spam (though still with a medium amount of probability on “I am incompetent and just forgot to reply”). As a temporary ... | Scott Alexander | 49087040 | Open Thread 212 | acx |
# Austin Meetup Next Sunday
I’ll be in Austin on Sunday, 2/27, and the meetup group there has kindly agreed to host me and anyone else who wants to show up.
We’ll be at [UPDATED WITH CHANGE} Moontower Cider Company at 1916 Tillery St from noon to 3. The organizer is sbarta@gmail.com , you can contact him if you have ... | Scott Alexander | 48999766 | Austin Meetup Next Sunday | acx |
# The Gods Only Have Power Because We Believe In Them
*[with apologies to [Terry Pratchett](https://amzn.to/3oKWHyS) and [TVTropes](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/GodsNeedPrayerBadly)]*
“Is it true,” asked the student, “that the gods only have power because we believe in them?”
“Yes,” said the sage.
“T... | Scott Alexander | 48716400 | The Gods Only Have Power Because We Believe In Them | acx |
# Book Review: Sadly, Porn
**I.**
Freshman English class says all books need a conflict. Man vs. Man, Man vs. Self, whatever. The conflict in *[Sadly, Porn](https://amzn.to/34VRqgW)* is Author vs. Reader.
The author - the pseudonymous “Edward Teach, MD” - is a spectacular writer. Your exact assessment of his skill w... | Scott Alexander | 48129594 | Book Review: Sadly, Porn | acx |
# Mantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold
### Ukraine
Thanks to [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard/status/1491759547291156481) for doing my work for me:
These run from about 48% to 60%, but I think the differences are justified by the slightly different wordings of the question and definitions of “invasio... | Scott Alexander | 48705653 | Mantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold | acx |
# Open Thread 211
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** The team behind Polymarket want me to clarify that despite the to... | Scott Alexander | 48707726 | Open Thread 211 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Motivated Reasoning And Reinforcement Learning
**I. Comments From People Who Actually Know What They’re Talking About**
Gabriel [writes](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/motivated-reasoning-as-mis-applied/comment/4822086):
> The brain trains on magnitude and acts on sign.
>
> T... | Scott Alexander | 48285380 | Highlights From The Comments On Motivated Reasoning And Reinforcement Learning | acx |
# ACX Grants ++: The Second Half
This is the closing part of [ACX Grants](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-results). Projects that I couldn’t fully fund myself were invited to submit a brief description so I could at least give them free advertising here. You can look them over and decide if any seem w... | Scott Alexander | 48145304 | ACX Grants ++: The Second Half | acx |
# So You Want To Run A Microgrants Program
**I.**
Medical training is a wild ride. You do four years of undergrad in some bio subject, ace your MCATs, think you’re pretty hot stuff. Then you do your med school preclinicals, study umpteen hours a day, ace your shelf exams, and it seems like you're pretty much there. T... | Scott Alexander | 47831268 | So You Want To Run A Microgrants Program | acx |
# Heuristics That Almost Always Work
**The Security Guard**
He works in a very boring building. It basically never gets robbed. He sits in his security guard booth doing the crossword. Every so often, there’s a noise, and he checks to see if it’s robbers, or just the wind.
It’s the wind. It is always the wind. It’s ... | Scott Alexander | 45269466 | Heuristics That Almost Always Work | acx |
# Two Small Corrections And Updates
**1:** I titled part of my post yesterday “RIP Polymarket”, which was a mistake. Polymarket would like to remind everyone that they are very much alive, with a real-money market available to anyone outside the US, and some kind of compliant US product (maybe a play-money market) in ... | Scott Alexander | 48422514 | Two Small Corrections And Updates | acx |
# The Passage Of Polymarket
**Long Live Polymarket**
Polymarket [got fined $1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/01/24/polymarket-relaunches-site-after-cftc-shutdown-but-not-for-us-traders/) and was ordered to cease noncompliant trading in the US.
Polymarket... | Scott Alexander | 48322340 | The Passage Of Polymarket | acx |
# Open Thread 210
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:
**1:** We now have a “report comment” button! If someone posts a terrible comment... | Scott Alexander | 48329219 | Open Thread 210 | acx |
# Book Review Contest Rules 2022
Okay, we’re officially doing this again.
Write a review of a book. There’s no official word count requirement, but [last year’s finalists and winners](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-contest-winners) were often between 2,000 and 10,000 words. There’s no official reco... | Scott Alexander | 48201926 | Book Review Contest Rules 2022 | acx |
# ACX Grants ++: The First Half
This is the closing part of [ACX Grants](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-results). Projects that I couldn’t fully fund myself were invited to submit a brief description so I could at least give them free advertising here. You can look them over and decide if any seem wo... | Scott Alexander | 47877881 | ACX Grants ++: The First Half | acx |
# Why Do I Suck?
I recently ran a subscriber-only AMA, and one of the most frequent questions was some version of “why do you suck?”
My commenters were very nice about it. They didn’t use those exact words. It was more like “I loved your articles from about 2013 - 2016 so much! Why don’t you write articles like that ... | Scott Alexander | 47927663 | Why Do I Suck? | acx |
# Motivated Reasoning As Mis-applied Reinforcement Learning
Here’s something else I got from [the first Yudkowsky-Ngo dialogue](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7im8at9PmhbT4JHsW/ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty):
Suppose you go to Lion Country and get mauled by lions. You want the part of your brain that gen... | Scott Alexander | 46504475 | Motivated Reasoning As Mis-applied Reinforcement Learning | acx |
# Predictions For 2022
*I didn’t let myself check prediction markets when making these forecasts since that would spoil the fun. I also only permitted myself at most five minutes of research on any one question.*
***See the bottom of the post for a contest/survey.***
**US/WORLD**1. Biden approval rating (as per 538)... | Scott Alexander | 47551031 | Predictions For 2022 | acx |
# Open Thread 209
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** Several good comments on the Poverty and Infant EEG post, eg [Rah... | Scott Alexander | 47961301 | Open Thread 209 | acx |
# Classifieds Thread 1/2022
This is the bimonthly (?) classifieds thread. Advertise whatever you want in the comments.
I’m experimenting with being more organized this time, so please respond to the appropriate top-level comment: **Employment, Dating, Read My Blog** (also includes podcasts, books, etc)**, Consume My ... | Scott Alexander | 47828084 | Classifieds Thread 1/2022 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Health Care Systems
I’m experimenting with making this more structured this time, so:
**Section I:** Collection of comments on US health care
**Section II:** Drug pricing, and does the US subsidize the rest of the world?
**Section III:** Why are health economics so unlike other e... | Scott Alexander | 47644805 | Highlights From The Comments On Health Care Systems | acx |
# Against That Poverty And Infant EEGs Study
A recent paper claims to have found an [Impact Of A Poverty Reduction Intervention On Infant Brain Activity](https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/119/5/e2115649119.full.pdf). It’s doing the rounds of the usual media sites, like *[Vox](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2289331... | Scott Alexander | 47719504 | Against That Poverty And Infant EEGs Study | acx |
# Bounded Distrust
**I.**
Suppose you're a liberal who doesn't trust FOX News. One day you're at the airport, waiting for a plane, ambiently watching the TV at the gate. It's FOX News, and they're saying that a mass shooter just shot twenty people in Yankee Stadium. There’s live footage from the stadium with lots of ... | Scott Alexander | 44695804 | Bounded Distrust | acx |
# Grading My 2021 Predictions
At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them. Here are [2014](https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/01/01/2014-predictions-calibration-results/), [2015](https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/02/2015-predictions-calibration-results/), [2016](https://sla... | Scott Alexander | 47548732 | Grading My 2021 Predictions | acx |
# Open Thread 208
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:
**1:** Comment of the week is from Richard Ngo, who [helpfully corrects](https://... | Scott Alexander | 47605424 | Open Thread 208 | acx |
# Resubmit And Summarize Your Proposals For Grants ++
I promised you all that once I was done with the main round of [ACX Grants](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-results), I would run Grants ++, where I publish the proposals that didn't get funded here, so readers could look at them, see if they’re in... | Scott Alexander | 47513188 | Resubmit And Summarize Your Proposals For Grants ++ | acx |
# Book Review: Which Country Has The World's Best Health Care?
**I.**
If you’re like me, all you’ve heard about international health care systems is “America sucks and should feel bad, everyone else is probably fine or whatever”. Is there more we can learn?
Our guide to this question will be *[Which Country Has The ... | Scott Alexander | 47284248 | Book Review: Which Country Has The World's Best Health Care? | acx |
# Practically-A-Book Review: Yudkowsky Contra Ngo On Agents
**I.**
The story thus far: AI safety, which started as the hobbyhorse of a few weird transhumanists in the early 2000s, has grown into a medium-sized respectable field. OpenAI, the people responsible for GPT-3 and other marvels, have a safety team. So do Dee... | Scott Alexander | 46108556 | Practically-A-Book Review: Yudkowsky Contra Ngo On Agents | acx |
# Open Thread 207
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** The [AI] Alignment Research Center is running the [Eliciting Late... | Scott Alexander | 47229133 | Open Thread 207 | acx |
# There's A Time For Everyone
Last week I got married.
I met her two years ago, at one of (our mutual friend) Aella’s weird parties.
Not this one, a different one. I was at this one too though. It was great.
Our first date, we talked about Singapore’s child tax credits, which gave me advanced notice of where her mi... | Scott Alexander | 44918153 | There's A Time For Everyone | acx |
# Open Thread 206
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:
**1:** If you received an ACX Grant, you should either have already been approach... | Scott Alexander | 46681947 | Open Thread 206 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On "Don't Look Up"
Lots of people thought I was being unfair to the movie. [G. Retriever](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/movie-review-dont-look-up/comment/4298369) writes:
> I TOTALLY disagree with your reading of the movie. To me it was a description of a social dynamic that mak... | Scott Alexander | 46674069 | Highlights From The Comments On "Don't Look Up" | acx |
# Movie Review: Don't Look Up
**I.**
*Don’t Look Up* is primarily a movie about existential risk, and [many great people](https://www.slowboring.com/p/dont-look-up) have already reviewed it as such. I’m going to be less virtuous and use it as a springboard to talk about politics.
But first, the plot in a nutshell: M... | Scott Alexander | 46274448 | Movie Review: Don't Look Up | acx |
# Lewis Carroll Invented Retroactive Public Goods Funding In 1894
Retroactive public goods funding is one of those ideas that’s so great people can’t stop reinventing it.
I know of at least five independent inventions under five different names: [“social impact bonds”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_impact_bond... | Scott Alexander | 45744238 | Lewis Carroll Invented Retroactive Public Goods Funding In 1894 | acx |
# Open Thread 205
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** On the Grants Results thread, Michael A [writes](https://astralco... | Scott Alexander | 46504027 | Open Thread 205 | acx |
# Links For December
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will... | Scott Alexander | 46351268 | Links For December | acx |
# ACX Grants Results
Thanks to everyone who participated in ACX Grants, whether as an applicant, an evaluator, or a funder.
Before I announce awardees, a caveat: this was hard in lots of ways I didn't expect. I got 656 applications addressing different problems and requiring different skills to judge. I'll write a lo... | Scott Alexander | 45945785 | ACX Grants Results | acx |
# Mantic Monday: Dogs In Wizard Hats
I found this YouTube explainer about prediction markets on the subreddit. It’s pretty good! My small nitpicks are that it overestimates their accuracy relative to traditional forecasters (it focuses on markets beating forecasters in 2008, but I don’t think this is consistent) and u... | Scott Alexander | 46084477 | Mantic Monday: Dogs In Wizard Hats | acx |
# Open Thread 204
**1:** Sorry, I know I said I would have the Grants results up by Christmas, but I’m waiting for the last few funder checks to clear, plus I realized if I posted something on Christmas nobody would read it. Current prediction is sometime this week, probably Tuesday.
**2:** Comments of the week: John... | Scott Alexander | 46167512 | Open Thread 204 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Diseasonality
The main highlight was an email I got from a reader who prefers to remain anonymous, linking me to [Projecting The Transmission Dynamics Of SARS-CoV2](https://sci-hub.st/10.1126/science.abb5793). This paper is head and shoulders above anything I found during my own liter... | Scott Alexander | 45706834 | Highlights From The Comments On Diseasonality | acx |
# Addendum To "No Evidence" Post
The day after I wrote [The Phrase “No Evidence” Is A Red Flag For Bad Science Communication](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-phrase-no-evidence-is-a-red-flag), FT published [this article](https://www.ft.com/content/020534b3-5a54-4517-9fd1-167a5db50786):
Like many uses of “no... | Scott Alexander | 45744837 | Addendum To "No Evidence" Post | acx |
# Addendum To Luvox Post
In my post yesterday, I [quoted a Vox](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22841852/covid-drugs-antibodies-fluvoxamine-molnupiravir-paxlovid) article describing work by Dr. Ed Mills and others to get the FDA to approve Luvox for COVID. As of that point, the FDA didn’t know how to process an app... | Scott Alexander | 45878405 | Addendum To Luvox Post | acx |
# The FDA Has Punted Decisions About Luvox Prescription To The Deepest Recesses Of The Human Soul
**I.**
Here’s my pitch for fluvoxamine (Luvox) for COVID.
In the midst of all the hype about ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine, scientists put together the giant 4,000-person TOGETHER trial, intended to test all these e... | Scott Alexander | 45689243 | The FDA Has Punted Decisions About Luvox Prescription To The Deepest Recesses Of The Human Soul | acx |
# Mantic Monday: Let Me Google That For You
### Let Me Google That For You
New from Google this month: [Creating A Prediction Market On Google Cloud](https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/solutions-how-tos/design-patterns-in-googles-prediction-market-on-google-cloud). Google announces that they’ve been running an inte... | Scott Alexander | 45727338 | Mantic Monday: Let Me Google That For You | acx |
# Open Thread 203
**1.** Public service announcement: In case you haven’t been paying attention or believing what you read, the most likely scenario is that Omicron is shaping up to be pretty bad (maybe less severe per case, but a *lot* more cases). Expect it to hit very suddenly and peak sometime in January. Zvi has ... | Scott Alexander | 45686244 | Open Thread 203 | acx |
# The Phrase "No Evidence" Is A Red Flag For Bad Science Communication
**Related to:** [Doctor, There Are Two Types Of No Evidence](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/08/doctor-there-ar.html); [A Failure, But Not Of Prediction](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14/a-failure-but-not-of-prediction/).
**I.**
Click to... | Scott Alexander | 45503590 | The Phrase "No Evidence" Is A Red Flag For Bad Science Communication | acx |
# Ancient Plagues
During our recent discussion of climate change, someone linked me to [this New York Magazine piece](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans-annotated.html) making the case for doomism.
I disagree with it pretty intensely, but most of my complaints are already ... | Scott Alexander | 43332746 | Ancient Plagues | acx |
# Open Thread 202
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:
**1:** Corrections from [Monday’s Model Cities post](https://astralcodexten.subst... | Scott Alexander | 45384051 | Open Thread 202 | acx |
# Does Georgism Work, Part 3: Can Unimproved Land Value be Accurately Assessed Separately From Buildings?
*[Lars Doucet won this year’s [Book Review Contest](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-contest-winners) with his review of Henry George’s [Progress and Poverty](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p... | Scott Alexander | 45309834 | Does Georgism Work, Part 3: Can Unimproved Land Value be Accurately Assessed Separately From Buildings? | acx |
# Does Georgism Work? Part 2: Can Landlords Pass Land Value Tax on to Tenants?
*[Lars Doucet won this year’s [Book Review Contest](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-contest-winners) with his review of Henry George’s [Progress and Poverty](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-progress-... | Scott Alexander | 45264126 | Does Georgism Work? Part 2: Can Landlords Pass Land Value Tax on to Tenants? | acx |
# Does Georgism Work? Part 1: Is Land Really A Big Deal?
*[Lars Doucet won this year’s [Book Review Contest](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-contest-winners) with his review of Henry George’s [Progress and Poverty](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-progress-and-poverty). Since th... | Scott Alexander | 45001939 | Does Georgism Work? Part 1: Is Land Really A Big Deal? | acx |
# Diseasonality
[*epistemic status: conjecture and speculation in something that isn’t really my field*]
**I.**
It’s still [not totally clear](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17222079/) why some diseases are seasonal.
Seasonal diseases usually peak in late winter - so around January/February in the Northern Hemisph... | Scott Alexander | 44275659 | Diseasonality | acx |
# Model City Monday 12/6/21
### Tegucigalpa, Honduras
The socialist opposition has won Honduras’ election and pledges to fight against charter cities there. "Immediately upon assuming the presidency, we are going to send the National Congress an initiative for the repeal of the ZEDE law," incoming president Xiomara C... | Scott Alexander | 45047366 | Model City Monday 12/6/21 | acx |
# Open Thread 201
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** A few months ago, [I wrote about](https://astralcodexten.substack... | Scott Alexander | 45041134 | Open Thread 201 | acx |
# Book Review: Lifespan
*[epistemic status: non-expert review of a book on a highly technical subject, sorry. If you are involved in biochemistry or anti-aging, feel free to correct my mistakes]*
David Sinclair - Harvard professor, celebrity biologist, and author of *[Lifespan](https://www.amazon.com/Lifespan-Revolut... | Scott Alexander | 44050250 | Book Review: Lifespan | acx |
# MM: Omicron Variant
Noah Smith has a good summary of the Omicron evidence [here](https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-omicron-situation), including a lot of quotes from experts. But experts say a lot of stuff like “well, it could be bad, but we can’t be sure”, plus sometimes they disagree. This sounds like a job fo... | Scott Alexander | 44709115 | MM: Omicron Variant | acx |
# Open Thread 200
This is the weekly visible open thread. In fact, it’s the two hundredth open thread! For historical reference, you can find Open Thread 1 [here](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/06/04/open-thread/). Post about whatever you want. Also:
**1:** Thanks to the 600 (!) of you who sent in ACX grants applica... | Scott Alexander | 44692092 | Open Thread 200 | acx |
# Links For November
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will... | Scott Alexander | 44098939 | Links For November | acx |
# Pascalian Medicine
**I.**
When I reviewed Vitamin D, I said I was about 75% sure it didn’t work against COVID. When I reviewed ivermectin, I said I was about 90% sure.
Another way of looking at this is that I must think there’s a 25% chance Vitamin D works, and a 10% chance ivermectin does. Both substances are gen... | Scott Alexander | 44375324 | Pascalian Medicine | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Ivermectin
Thanks to everyone who commented on my recent post **[Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ivermectin-much-more-than-you-wanted)**.
Let’s start with the negative comments. Leading pro-ivermectin website ivmmeta.com understand... | Scott Alexander | 44353755 | Highlights From The Comments On Ivermectin | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On The FDA And Paxlovid
Andrew [writes](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/when-will-the-fda-approve-paxlovid/comment/3731086):
> One word I don't see mentioned anywhere is "manufacturing." It's one thing to make enough drug for a clinical trial, it's another to make millions of comm... | Scott Alexander | 44443644 | Highlights From The Comments On The FDA And Paxlovid | acx |
# When Will The FDA Approve Paxlovid?
**I.**
You thought it wasn’t going to be a prediction market post, but surprise, it’s a prediction market post!
[Metaculus predicts](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8518/paxlovid-to-be-given-eua-by-fda/) January 1 as the median date for the FDA approving Paxlovid. They estim... | Scott Alexander | 44337674 | When Will The FDA Approve Paxlovid? | acx |
# Open Thread 199
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** Last month I wrote a post, [Jhanas And The Dark Room Problem](htt... | Scott Alexander | 44358407 | Open Thread 199 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Great Families
Thanks to everyone who commented on last week’s post **[Secrets Of The Great Families](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/secrets-of-the-great-families)**. Some highlights:
---
Many people knew of interesting families I’d missed. Stephen Frug [brings up](https://as... | Scott Alexander | 44155533 | Highlights From The Comments On Great Families | acx |
# Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
I know I’m two months late here. Everyone’s already made up their mind and moved on to other things.
But here’s my pitch: this is one of the most carefully-pored-over scientific issues of our time. Dozens of teams published studies saying ivermectin definitely worked. T... | Scott Alexander | 43667275 | Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know | acx |
# Mantic Monday 11/15
### Reciprocal Scoring, Part II
I talked about this last week as a potential solution to the problem of long-term forecasting. Instead of waiting a century to see what happens, get a bunch of teams, and incentivize each to predict what the *others* will guess. If they all expect the others to st... | Scott Alexander | 44012000 | Mantic Monday 11/15 | acx |
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