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# Open Thread 198
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:
In case you missed it last week, I’m [accepting grant applications](https://astra... | Scott Alexander | 44036157 | Open Thread 198 | acx |
# Apply For An ACX Grant
***[UPDATE:** Grants applications are closed for this year. No more proposals will be accepted]*
**What is ACX Grants?**
I want to give grants to good research and good projects with a minimum of paperwork. Like an NIH grant or something, only a lot less money and prestige.
**How is this di... | Scott Alexander | 40213067 | Apply For An ACX Grant | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Orban
[Lyman Stone](https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1456701957125591043) on Twitter:
> I won’t make you read it all in tweet format. He continues:
>
> 1) Dictatorship and democracy. The arguments about Orban cheating in elections might be totally true. I dunno. But that's sor... | Scott Alexander | 43814429 | Highlights From The Comments On Orban | acx |
# Secrets Of The Great Families
**I.**
Let's talk impressive families.
**[Aldous Huxley](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aldous_Huxley)** was an author most famous for *Brave New World*, though his other work is also great and underappreciated. His brother **[Julian Huxley](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Huxley)... | Scott Alexander | 43579557 | Secrets Of The Great Families | acx |
# Model City Monday 11/8/21
### Telosa, USA
Bloomberg: [The Diapers.com Guy Wants To Build A Utopian Megalopolis](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-01/how-diapers-com-founder-marc-lore-plans-to-build-utopian-city-telosa)
Marc Lore founded diapers.com and various other internet startups, served a stint ... | Scott Alexander | 43340291 | Model City Monday 11/8/21 | acx |
# Open Thread 197
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** I’m hoping to post a Highlights From The Comments On Orban thread... | Scott Alexander | 43706605 | Open Thread 197 | acx |
# Dictator Book Club: Orban
*(previously: [Erdogan](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-new-sultan), [Modi](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-modi-a-political-biography))*
**I.**
Some are born great. Some achieve greatness. And some are Victor Orban's college roommates.
*[Orban: Eu... | Scott Alexander | 42566685 | Dictator Book Club: Orban | acx |
# Non-Cognitive Skills For Educational Attainment Suggest Benefits Of Mental Illness Genes
Suppose you want to study the genetics of intelligence. You probably want a sample size in the six digits, and you can't make a six digit number of people sit down and take IQ tests. Also, whenever you say "genetics" and "intell... | Scott Alexander | 43510105 | Non-Cognitive Skills For Educational Attainment Suggest Benefits Of Mental Illness Genes | acx |
# Mantic Monday 11/1/21
### **Keynesian Beauty Contests**
I have no source for this, someone told me about it at a meetup.
Suppose you want to run a forecasting tournament on whether nuclear war will destroy civilization by 2100. But nobody cares how much money they have in eighty years, plus if civilization is dest... | Scott Alexander | 43323996 | Mantic Monday 11/1/21 | acx |
# Open Thread 196
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:
**1:** We’re finally done with meetup season (except Skopje, which has one schedu... | Scott Alexander | 43356113 | Open Thread 196 | acx |
# Jhanas and the Dark Room Problem
The [Dark Room Problem](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2012.00130/full) in neuroscience goes something like this: suppose the brain is minimizing prediction error, or free energy, or whatever. You can minimize lots of things by sitting quietly in a dark room. Ever... | Scott Alexander | 40744814 | Jhanas and the Dark Room Problem | acx |
# Epistemic Minor Leagues
*[I’m traveling this week - here is an older essay I never previously got around to posting]*
Viral game designer Adrian Hon wrote an article about [What Alternate Reality Games Can Teach Us About QAnon](https://mssv.net/2020/08/02/what-args-can-teach-us-about-qanon/).
It argues that people... | Scott Alexander | 43040292 | Epistemic Minor Leagues | acx |
# Open Thread 195 + Cambridge/Edinburgh Meetups This Weekend
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** Cambridge meetup this ... | Scott Alexander | 42977392 | Open Thread 195 + Cambridge/Edinburgh Meetups This Weekend | acx |
# Chilling Effects
*[Epistemic status: Extremely confused! Low confidence in all of this]*
**I.**
On [the recent global warming post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-kids), a commenter argued that at least fewer people would die of cold. I was prepared to dismiss this on the gro... | Scott Alexander | 42609174 | Chilling Effects | acx |
# Open Thread 194 + London/Oxford Meetups This Weekend
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:
**1:** London meetup this Saturday, October ... | Scott Alexander | 42617554 | Open Thread 194 + London/Oxford Meetups This Weekend | acx |
# Links For October
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will ... | Scott Alexander | 42248551 | Links For October | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Kids And Climate Change
Ramparen [writes](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/please-dont-give-up-on-having-kids/comment/3201665):
> No one really does it because of climate change imo, that is just a neat excuse to avoid the responsibility and limitations that being a parent bring... | Scott Alexander | 42503142 | Highlights From The Comments On Kids And Climate Change | acx |
# Please Don't Give Up On Having Kids Because Of Climate Change
**I.**
A [recent poll](https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/climate-change/572140-poll-finds-huge-percentage-fear-having) finds that 39% of young people “feel uncertain” about having children because of climate change. And sure, people say... | Scott Alexander | 39944722 | Please Don't Give Up On Having Kids Because Of Climate Change | acx |
# Open Thread 193 + Berlin/Paris Meetups This Weekend
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** Berlin meetup this Saturday, ... | Scott Alexander | 42319358 | Open Thread 193 + Berlin/Paris Meetups This Weekend | acx |
# Classifieds Thread 10/2021
I overestimated my ability to write stuff while traveling, so let’s do this again. Advertise your blog, product, resume, dating preferences, etc. | Scott Alexander | 42248329 | Classifieds Thread 10/2021 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Modern Architecture
Thanks to everyone who commented on [Whither Tartaria](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/whither-tartaria) (currently 1079 comments). Many of you *really* like modern architecture, and many others of you *really* hate it. I appreciate most of you being able to ... | Scott Alexander | 42030368 | Highlights From The Comments On Modern Architecture | acx |
# Open Thread 192 + Vienna/Prague Meetups This Weekend
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:
**1:** Vienna meetup this Saturday, October ... | Scott Alexander | 42021519 | Open Thread 192 + Vienna/Prague Meetups This Weekend | acx |
# Book Review: The Scout Mindset
**I.**
You tried Carol Dweck’s [Growth Mindset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mindset#Fixed_and_growth_mindset), but the replication crisis crushed your faith. You tried Mike Cernovich’s [Gorilla Mindset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Cernovich#Books), but your neighbors all took... | Scott Alexander | 41163009 | Book Review: The Scout Mindset | acx |
# Open Thread 191 + Madrid/Zurich Meetups This Weekend
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** Madrid meetup this Saturday,... | Scott Alexander | 41734737 | Open Thread 191 + Madrid/Zurich Meetups This Weekend | acx |
# Whither Tartaria?
Imagine a postapocalyptic world. Beside the ruined buildings of our own civilization - St. Peter’s Basilica, the Taj Mahal, those really great Art Deco skyscrapers - dwell savages in mud huts. The savages see the buildings every day, but they never compose legends about how they were built by the g... | Scott Alexander | 41586693 | Whither Tartaria? | acx |
# Links For September
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I wil... | Scott Alexander | 41085979 | Links For September | acx |
# Open Thread 190
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:
**1:** The US government is in the middle of debating its future pandemic prepare... | Scott Alexander | 41483615 | Open Thread 190 | acx |
# Lisbon Meetup This Saturday
**When:** Saturday, September 18th, 5 PM
**Where: [g](https://what3words.com/guitars.record.caps)**[uitars.record.caps](https://what3words.com/guitars.record.caps), aka a suspiciously ordinary-looking tree in Parque da Pedra, Monsanto Park. Our intrepid organizer writes: “Spot the tall w... | Scott Alexander | 41453820 | Lisbon Meetup This Saturday | acx |
# Book Review: The Revolt Of The Public
**I.**
Martin Gurri's *[The Revolt Of The Public](https://amzn.to/39ePhMe)* is from 2014, which means you might as well read the Epic of Gilgamesh. It has a second-edition-update-chapter from 2017, which might as well be *Beowulf*. The book is about how social-media-connected m... | Scott Alexander | 41442728 | Book Review: The Revolt Of The Public | acx |
# Book Review: Modi - A Political Biography
**I.**
I have a friend who studied the history of fascism. She gets angry when people call Trump (or some other villain *du jour*) fascist. "Words have meanings! Fascism isn't just any right-winger you dislike!" Maybe she takes this a little too far; by a strict definition,... | Scott Alexander | 41204726 | Book Review: Modi - A Political Biography | acx |
# Open Thread 189
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** I’m away this month visiting meetups, so expect posts here to be ... | Scott Alexander | 41203772 | Open Thread 189 | acx |
# Washington DC Meetup This Saturday
**When:** Saturday, September 11th, 5 PM
**Where:** [decent.search.hurls](https://w3w.co/decent.search.hurls), aka the patio and lot around 1002 N St. NW.
**Who:** Anyone who wants. Please feel free to come even if you feel awkward about it, even if you’re not “the typical ACX re... | Scott Alexander | 41174836 | Washington DC Meetup This Saturday | acx |
# The Unbearable Semiheaviness Of Being
I hear that Google tests prospective employees with weird vaguely-science-related riddles. If I were in charge of this, here's what I would ask:
You're an American spy in Cuba. The CIA has gotten you a position refilling the water coolers in Castro's presidential palace, hoping... | Scott Alexander | 41037583 | The Unbearable Semiheaviness Of Being | acx |
# Too Good To Check: A Play In Three Acts
**I.**
Seen on Twitter:
In case you find this hard to follow: ivermectin is an antiparasitic drug that looked promising against COVID in early studies. Later it started looking less promising, and investigators found that a major supporting study was fraudulent. But by this ... | Scott Alexander | 40966737 | Too Good To Check: A Play In Three Acts | acx |
# New York Meetup This Monday
**When:** Monday, 9/6. I’ll be arriving at 5 PM but some other people might get there earlier, around 3.
**Where:** [swung.shape.shows](https://w3w.co/swung.shape.shows), aka Teardrop Park in Lower Manhattan
**Who:** Anyone who wants. Please feel free to come even if you feel awkward ab... | Scott Alexander | 40950934 | New York Meetup This Monday | acx |
# Open Thread 188
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:
**1:** The Salt Lake City meetup group reports that COVID may have spread at thei... | Scott Alexander | 40924635 | Open Thread 188 | acx |
# Boston Meetup This Sunday
**When:** Sunday, 9/5, 5 PM
**Where:** [area.bricks.tribune](https://w3w.co/area.bricks.tribune), aka John F Kennedy Park in Cambridge, near the picnic tables.
**Who:** Anyone who wants. Please feel free to come even if you feel awkward about it, even if you’re not “the typical ACX reader... | Scott Alexander | 40895891 | Boston Meetup This Sunday | acx |
# Long COVID: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Like everyone else, I'm trying to figure out how cautious I should be around COVID. It seems like the most important concern for young vaccinated people like myself is the risk of Long COVID symptoms, so I spent a while trying to figure out what those were.
My basic con... | Scott Alexander | 40790820 | Long COVID: Much More Than You Wanted To Know | acx |
# On Hreha On Behavioral Economics
Jason Hreha’s article on [The Death Of Behavioral Economics](https://www.thebehavioralscientist.com/articles/the-death-of-behavioral-economics) has been going around lately, after an experiment by behavioral econ guru Dan Ariely was discovered to be fraudulent. The article argues tha... | Scott Alexander | 40639720 | On Hreha On Behavioral Economics | acx |
# Open Thread 187
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** Thanks to everyone who came to the Berkeley meetup yesterday (~12... | Scott Alexander | 40637193 | Open Thread 187 | acx |
# Berkeley Meetup This Saturday
**When:** Saturday, August 28, at 1 PM
**Where:** [deflection.jump.puppy](https://what3words.com/deflection.jump.puppy), aka the lawn where West Circle meets Free Speech Bikeway near the UC Berkeley parking lot.
**Who:** Anyone who wants. Please feel free to come even if you feel awkw... | Scott Alexander | 40543215 | Berkeley Meetup This Saturday | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Missing School
*[Original article: [Kids Can Recover From Missing Even A Lot Of School](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/kids-can-recover-from-missing-even)]*
**I.**
Many commenters shared their own stories of missing lots of school and bouncing back from it. For example, [Rach... | Scott Alexander | 40487327 | Highlights From The Comments On Missing School | acx |
# If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Governor Of California?
Californians love long-shot bets. Actors trying to make it big in LA, tech founders chasing unicorns in San Francisco, cult leaders trying to found religions in Pasadena. In Silicon Valley, VCs turn the long-shot bet into an art: if some new startup has a 5%... | Scott Alexander | 40430745 | If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Governor Of California? | acx |
# Carbon Costs Quantified
This post tries to quantify how much carbon is produced by various activities, lifestyle changes, and actors.
I can’t stress enough how approximate and unreliable these numbers are. The reason I made this chart and other people didn’t isn’t because I’m smarter or harder-working than they are... | Scott Alexander | 40347952 | Carbon Costs Quantified | acx |
# Meetups Everywhere 2021: Times And Places
***[Meetup COVID alerts**: I’ve been informed that someone at the Salt Lake City meetup may have had COVID. Please let me know if you have any other information about COVID at meetups and I will list it here.]*
Thanks to everyone who responded to my [request for](https://as... | mingyuan | 40351354 | Meetups Everywhere 2021: Times And Places | acx |
# Open Thread 186
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. | Scott Alexander | 40346181 | Open Thread 186 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Aducanumab
These are highlights from the comments of [Adumbrations Of Aducanumab](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/adumbrations-of-aducanumab), [Details Of The Infant Fish Oil Story](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/details-of-the-infant-fish-oil-story), and discussion of th... | Scott Alexander | 40054518 | Highlights From The Comments On Aducanumab | acx |
# Links For August
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will h... | Scott Alexander | 40034615 | Links For August | acx |
# Kids Can Recover From Missing Even Quite A Lot Of School
**I. Introduction**
Back when the public schools were closed or online, someone I know burned themselves out working overtime to get the money to send their kid to a private school. They figured that all the other parents would do it, their kid would fall hop... | Scott Alexander | 38612249 | Kids Can Recover From Missing Even Quite A Lot Of School | acx |
# Open Thread 185
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** Thanks to everyone who [volunteered to organize a local meetup](h... | Scott Alexander | 40048399 | Open Thread 185 | acx |
# Blindness, Schizophrenia, and Autism
**Update (8/29/22):** All of this might be false, see [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z9Syf3pGffpvHwfr4/i-m-mildly-skeptical-that-blindness-prevents-schizophrenia) for more.
Some weird psychiatric trivia: no congenitally blind person ever gets schizophrenia ([journal arti... | Scott Alexander | 39139730 | Blindness, Schizophrenia, and Autism | acx |
# Contra Hanania On Partisanship
Richard Hanania of the [Center For The Study Of Partisanship And Ideology](https://cspicenter.org/) asks "[why is everything liberal](https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/why-is-everything-liberal)?" Given that there are approximately equal numbers of Trump voters and Biden voters in ... | Scott Alexander | 37799371 | Contra Hanania On Partisanship | acx |
# Classifieds Thread 8/2021
By popular demand, here’s a classifieds thread. Advertise your blog, product, resume, dating preferences, etc.
I’ll probably have one of these every month or two, and be more strict about pruning ads from the regular open threads from now on. | Scott Alexander | 39899822 | Classifieds Thread 8/2021 | acx |
# (Outdoor, Careful) Meetups Everywhere 2021 - Seeking Organizers
There are ACX-affiliated meetup groups all over the world. Lots of people are vaguely interested, but don't try them out until I make a big deal about it on the blog. Since learning that, I've tried to make a big deal about it on the blog once annually,... | Scott Alexander | 39745502 | (Outdoor, Careful) Meetups Everywhere 2021 - Seeking Organizers | acx |
# Eight Hundred Slightly Poisoned Word Games
In 2012, a Berkeley team found that indoor carbon dioxide had dramatic negative effects on cognition ([paper](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3548274/), [popular article](https://alumni.berkeley.edu/california-magazine/summer-2016-welcome-there/your-brain-carbo... | Scott Alexander | 38917186 | Eight Hundred Slightly Poisoned Word Games | acx |
# Open Thread 184
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:
**1:** A correction to [my post about Sasha’s LSD experience](https://astralcodex... | Scott Alexander | 39768119 | Open Thread 184 | acx |
# Contra Drum On The Fish Oil Story
**I.**
Kevin Drum [questions my interpretation of the infant fish oil story](https://jabberwocking.com/a-3-part-story-about-short-bowel-syndrome-and-the-fda/).
(it's actually more complicated - I posted a shorter version, later corrected it with a longer version based on the accou... | Scott Alexander | 39760335 | Contra Drum On The Fish Oil Story | acx |
# Details Of The Infant Fish Oil Story
**I.**
In [my recent post on the](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/adumbrations-of-aducanumab) FDA, I mentioned a story about a fish-oil-based infant nutritional fluid called Omegaven. The FDA took too long to approve it, and lots of infants died.
I plucked that from the a... | Scott Alexander | 39676895 | Details Of The Infant Fish Oil Story | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Acemoglu And AI
```
[original post here]
```
[Eugene Norman](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/contra-acemoglu-onoh-god-were-doing/comments#comment-2473956) writes:
> This…
>
> *“People have said climate change could cause mass famine and global instability by 2100. But actually... | Scott Alexander | 39571910 | Highlights From The Comments On Acemoglu And AI | acx |
# Adumbrations Of Aducanumab
Lots of people have been writing about aducanumab, but [this](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/americas-drug-approval-system-unsustainable/619422/) *[Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/americas-drug-approval-system-unsustainable/619422/)* [articl... | Scott Alexander | 39483408 | Adumbrations Of Aducanumab | acx |
# Model City Monday 8/2/21
#### **Greenhouse Effect**
Honduras remains the country to watch in the charter city sphere, with its ZEDE law allowing unprecedented levels of freedom and protection. I’d [previously written about](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera) two Honduran projects, the hig... | Scott Alexander | 39453583 | Model City Monday 8/2/21 | acx |
# Open Thread 183
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** Thanks to everyone who took the Reader Research Survey. All those... | Scott Alexander | 39479079 | Open Thread 183 | acx |
# Updated Look At Long-Term AI Risks
The last couple of posts here talked about long-term risks from AI, so I thought I’d highlight [the results of a new expert survey](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2tumunFmjBuXdfF2F/survey-on-ai-existential-risk-scenarios-1) on exactly what they are. There have been a lot... | Scott Alexander | 39391774 | Updated Look At Long-Term AI Risks | acx |
# When Does Worrying About Things Trade Off Against Worrying About Other Things?
On [yesterday’s post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/contra-acemoglu-onoh-god-were-doing), some people tried to steelman Acemoglu’s argument into something like this:
> There’s a limited amount of public interest in AI. The more g... | Scott Alexander | 39286771 | When Does Worrying About Things Trade Off Against Worrying About Other Things? | acx |
# Contra Acemoglu On...Oh God, We're Doing This Again, Aren't We?
The Washington Post [has published yet another](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/07/21/ai-we-should-fear-is-already-here/) "luminary in unrelated field discovers AI risk, pronounces it stupid" article. This time it's Daron Acemoglu. I respec... | Scott Alexander | 39168323 | Contra Acemoglu On...Oh God, We're Doing This Again, Aren't We? | acx |
# Mantic Monday 7/26
#### This Week In Markets
[PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets) remains easy to use, high-volume, and focused almost entirely on horse-race political questions. At least we might get rid of Cuomo.
[Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/) remains a fun alternative way to learn about the new... | Scott Alexander | 39163175 | Mantic Monday 7/26 | acx |
# Open Thread 182
*This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:*
**1:** Comment of the week is Matthew T [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.... | Scott Alexander | 39191801 | Open Thread 182 | acx |
# Links For July
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will hav... | Scott Alexander | 38889391 | Links For July | acx |
# Things I Learned Writing The Lockdown Post
[Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/lockdown-effectiveness-much-more) is the most ambitious post I've tried to write since starting the new blog.
I posted an early draft for subscribers only and tried crowdsourc... | Scott Alexander | 38883559 | Things I Learned Writing The Lockdown Post | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On "Crazy Like Us"
Some good discussion of PTSD, culminating in a link to the ACOUP blog, [which says](https://acoup.blog/2020/04/24/fireside-friday-april-24-2020/):
> I cannot speak for all pre-modern, ancient or medieval armies. But for the periods where I *have* read a wide chunk of ... | Scott Alexander | 38884480 | Highlights From The Comments On "Crazy Like Us" | acx |
# Peer Review Request: Ketamine
I'm trying to build up a database of mental health resources on my other website, [Lorien Psychiatry](https://lorienpsych.com/). Whenever I post something here, people have had good comments, so I want to try using you all as peer review.
This is a rough draft of my page on depression.... | Scott Alexander | 38951338 | Peer Review Request: Ketamine | acx |
# Open Thread 181
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** Thanks to everyone who participated in the Reader Survey - and if... | Scott Alexander | 38883862 | Open Thread 181 | acx |
# Please Take The Reader Survey [Update: Now It Is Closed And You Can Stop Taking It]
**[[Update 7/30/21: I am officially closing this project. There is no need to take these surveys any more and any further responses won’t be counted.**]]
All right, here goes.
This is a project to support studies by ACX community m... | Scott Alexander | 38850961 | Please Take The Reader Survey [Update: Now It Is Closed And You Can Stop Taking It] | acx |
# Book Review: Crazy Like Us
We talk a lot about falling biodiversity. Sometimes we apply the same metaphor to the human world, eg “falling linguistic biodiversity" when minority languages get replaced by English or whatever. In *[Crazy Like Us](https://amzn.to/3rayK3U),* Ethan Watters sounds the alarm about falling p... | Scott Alexander | 38622262 | Book Review: Crazy Like Us | acx |
# Reader Survey Final Check-In
I accidentally missed some Book Review Contest entries, so I want to make sure I have everything lined up right for the Reader Survey. Below is a list of surveys I’m currently planning to include. If you sent me an email before the deadline, please confirm that your name is there. If it’... | Scott Alexander | 38684663 | Reader Survey Final Check-In | acx |
# Use Prediction Markets To Fund Investigative Reporting
[Hindenburg Research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Research) has a great business model:
1. Investigate companies
2. ...until they find one that is committing fraud
3. Short the fraudulent company
4. Publicly reveal the fraud
5. Company's st... | Scott Alexander | 38682879 | Use Prediction Markets To Fund Investigative Reporting | acx |
# Open Thread 180
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:
**1:** Deiseach is banned for one day, and jstr given a warning, for their exchan... | Scott Alexander | 38647731 | Open Thread 180 | acx |
# Book Review Contest: Winners
Thanks to everyone who participated or voted in the Book Review Contest. The winners are:
**FIRST PLACE**:
*[Progress and Poverty](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-progress-and-poverty)*, reviewed by Lars Doucet
Lars is a Norwegian-Texan game designer, and you ... | Scott Alexander | 38322815 | Book Review Contest: Winners | acx |
# Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Back when everyone was debating lockdowns, I promised I'd come back to it after there was more data. God willing, the pandemic is over enough that we've got all the data we're going to get. So: did lockdowns work?
There’s no way to answer this completely and... | Scott Alexander | 37964932 | Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know | acx |
# Model City Monday
Happy belated Fourth of July! This potentially-recurring column is about modern-day independence-seekers: charter cities, utopian communes, secessionist movements, and the like. I’ve always found these fascinating, and finally remembered that nobody can prevent me from talking about them.
I want t... | Scott Alexander | 38351704 | Model City Monday | acx |
# Open Thread 179
Happy Fourth of July! This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** There's another [online ACX meetup](https:/... | Scott Alexander | 38377551 | Open Thread 179 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On "How Asia Works"
I made a mistake in the email notifications, so if you didn’t know I wrote [a review of Joe Studwell’s](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-how-asia-works) *[How Asia Works](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-how-asia-works)* earlier this ... | Scott Alexander | 38248584 | Highlights From The Comments On "How Asia Works" | acx |
# Welcome Polygenically Screened Babies
Another thing I missed during my hiatus last year: [the birth of the first polygenically-screened baby](https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-ba... | Scott Alexander | 37805403 | Welcome Polygenically Screened Babies | acx |
# Book Review: How Asia Works
What was the best thing that ever happened? From a very zoomed-out, by-the-numbers perspective, it has to be China's sudden lurch from Third World basketcase to dynamic modern economy. A billion people went from starving peasants to the middle class. In the 1960s, sixty million people die... | Scott Alexander | 36736777 | Book Review: How Asia Works | acx |
# Open Thread 178
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:
1. Noah Smith responded to my post on Jewish achievement. I'll look over it more ... | Scott Alexander | 38109725 | Open Thread 178 | acx |
# ACX Reader Research Survey: Call For Submissions
Now that the book review contest is winding down, I want to start another big project: the ACX Reader Research Survey.
I used to do regular December surveys with questions I was interested in. Some people would ask me to include questions for their own research proje... | Scott Alexander | 38049781 | ACX Reader Research Survey: Call For Submissions | acx |
# Links For June
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will hav... | Scott Alexander | 37915425 | Links For June | acx |
# Mantic Monday 6/21/21
Among this month’s interesting Metaculus predictions:
**If Puerto Rico gets statehood, will their first two senators both be Democrats?** [50%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/). I’d seen accusations that the Democrats want Puerto Rican sta... | Scott Alexander | 37250439 | Mantic Monday 6/21/21 | acx |
# Open Thread 177
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
1: You probably saw this already, but [voting is open](https://forms.gle... | Scott Alexander | 37830338 | Open Thread 177 | acx |
# Vote In The Book Review Contest!
Thanks for reading the entries in this very delayed (and then very protracted) book review contest.
Please [vote for your favorites here](https://forms.gle/cHmGt859uyBb6Nns5), using approval voting (ie vote for however many you want).
I’ll probably keep voting open until the end of... | Scott Alexander | 37766844 | Vote In The Book Review Contest! | acx |
# Your Book Review: Plagues And Peoples
[*This is the seventeenth of seventeen finalists in the book review contest. This one was chosen out of the reviews I somehow missed the first time around. There were four other such essays, which you can see in [a supplementary runners-up packet here](https://docs.google.com/do... | Scott Alexander | 37699359 | Your Book Review: Plagues And Peoples | acx |
# On Cerebralab On Nutt/Carhart-Harris On Serotonin
[*epistemic status: extremely speculative*]
George at CerebraLab has a [new review](https://cerebralab.com/Stress_and_Serotonin) of [Nutt and Carhart-Harris's paper on serotonin receptors](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0269881117725915) (I previously ... | Scott Alexander | 37603831 | On Cerebralab On Nutt/Carhart-Harris On Serotonin | acx |
# Contra Smith On Jewish Selective Immigration
Noah Smith [asks whether Jews are really disproportionately successful](https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/how-successful-are-jews-really).
(in case it shapes the way you read any of this, both he and I are Jewish)
By the numbers, it would seem they are. US Jews have [a ... | Scott Alexander | 37145417 | Contra Smith On Jewish Selective Immigration | acx |
# Open Thread 176
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:
**1:** I've heard from five people who, despite sending me entries (and in some c... | Scott Alexander | 37528839 | Open Thread 176 | acx |
# Your Book Review: How Children Fail
[*This is the sixteenth of seventeen finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. This entry was promoted to finalist status by readers;... | Scott Alexander | 37502358 | Your Book Review: How Children Fail | acx |
# Your Book Review: Down And Out In Paris And London
[*This is the fifteenth of seventeen finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. This entry was promoted to finalist sta... | Scott Alexander | 37453757 | Your Book Review: Down And Out In Paris And London | acx |
# Drug Users Use A Lot Of Drugs
**I.**
If you look at any [list of side effects](https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/326038#side-effects) for the FDA-approved version of s-ketamine (Spravato), you see things like urinary tract problems, bladder problems, pain on urination, feeling of urgency to urinate. You can... | Scott Alexander | 37403450 | Drug Users Use A Lot Of Drugs | acx |
# I Will Not Eat The Bugs
From [the comments on Moral Costs Of Chicken Vs. Beef](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/moral-costs-of-chicken-vs-beef#comment-2093413):
> As far as moral concern goes, I think it's right to act your rational conviction, but I can't honestly surmount my own doubt that it makes sense to ... | Scott Alexander | 37367797 | I Will Not Eat The Bugs | acx |
# Instead Of Pledging To Change The World, Pledge To Change Prediction Markets
In April, Joe Biden [pledged to halve US emissions](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/04/22/president-biden-pledge-reduction-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions/7307038002/) (from their 2005 max) by 2030.
This is nice, but I can't ... | Scott Alexander | 37312588 | Instead Of Pledging To Change The World, Pledge To Change Prediction Markets | acx |
# Open Thread 175
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** A few people have emailed me saying they submitted entries to the... | Scott Alexander | 37280592 | Open Thread 175 | acx |
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