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for weeks now i've been quizzing my friends: does it take more information to communicate the results of flipping a loaded coin or a ? glad to have had a chance to learn the answer while reporting this piece.
if everyone woke up and flipped a until they could get heads, there would almost definitely be someone who would flip 30 tails in a row. and probably a million people who would think it's rigged after 10 flips.
@ergopadofficial /token distribution from the start #ergo2top10
no date three cents silver - https://t.co/fzzwf9dz9u #ebay via @ebay #coin #coinforsale #numismatics #threecents #antique #collectible #vintage #collector #online #marketplace #forsale #freeshipping #silver
@tomm35984589 @collingwoodfc aslong as it's on . not having what we had with some of these young blokes after the 18 granny
@rovercrc maybe he fall to 17k but im not sure, im just buying new @btczofficial btcz 💪 just research @btcz_rocks
@whitegoshawk1 ~~chosen via 512 flips~~
@ztree27 if a is flipped an infinite number of times, at some period it might come up heads a billion times. are the "laws" of nature just a long sequence of seemingly associated relationships that, in reality, are random connections.
fun probability puzzle from peter winkler's book: on average, how many times do you need to flip a before you have seen a run of an odd number of heads, followed by a tail?
#erg russian "fair" coin, distribution of blocks "by russian style pow" -1st to themselfs... wake up! leave the crap. also-erg gained 3k miners(25%) and raised diff by 61%!!! @ergoproxy @ergoplatformorg @crypto_heralds @getblockio @nightowlcasino @zengateglobal @decoeducation https://t.co/h2bkj8gad1
faster (ie) program for a050232: a(n) is the number of n-tosses having a run of 4 or more heads for a (i.e., probability is...
if i tossed a an infinite number of times, it wouldn’t land all heads.
imagine-tossing-a-fair-coin-3-times-what-is-the-sample-space-for-this-chance-pro https://t.co/jixphfd3oh
@hommieyoung1 @kaaego i’m tossing that coin so long as it’s a
@1stprinciples4l @briantylercohen @elonmusk he is not a scientist so his odds of being correct on scientific questions is about the same as a flip of a
to put it in an obvious way: if we all had one million chances to do something interesting in our lives, we'd have an incredibly fair society. a flipped a million times will be exactly 50/50.
@bethbourdon @mark_dubs lol, fair coin-collector
@rickyvs17 @smoothjohnny5 @alexandrosm basically if i hand you a if you flip it enough times you will converge on learning that it has 50% odds of heads. that’s “knowing the risks fully”, whereas before it converges you don’t know the risks fully, you lack confidence in the robustness of the distribution.
@wizai777 $tsuka is a no dev’s=‘s happy transactions. zero tax 💥💥
@vicmon215 @us_stormwatch say you've been flipping a for years. then the coin becomes slightly less fair. you'll notice the difference over time, but you can't ever say "this specific flip was because the fairness changed."
@bespokediogenes @drcirillo fat tony sez it's very close to 0. you didn't say it was a , and even if you did, you'd be lying.
for example when you flip a successively, you may get a succession of 10 heads, followed by a succession of ten tails. this is randomness in the same way that if you flipped a coin, heads would be followed by tails or vice versa without any discernible pattern
@roblongsports i’m somewhat convinced that the pre-season streak is almost like the issue of flipping a and getting a very long run of heads or tails. there is some random element in it that is uncontrollable and logically we know it has to end at some point.
@chris_auld @normonics @clydefp2008 @drcirillo the point is that this is not the most reasonable disambiguation. what we are told is that “at least one is a girl”. it’s like saying “i tossed a twice sequentially and in one of the tosses i got heads”. the pr of having had heads twice is 1/3, right?
10%, doesn't matter 9 were right for the wrong reason. simple analogy: i believe i have the super power to predict the outcome of a . i'm right 50% of the time (of course for the wrong reason, every time). what will be my accuracy rate? not 0%.
@bespokediogenes @drcirillo has to be 1. it cannot be a if you get 99 consecutive heads. the coin has heads on both sides!
@brett_a_taylor heh, this will just be seen as evidence that both teams a “inconsistent” by people who would have failed probability 101 for arguing that a should always get 50 heads in 100 flips.
@cavalieregiu @jeconometrics as kurst coeff is not 0,5 => markets have memory (the opposite of a ) then arise the necessity for a "memory process" ie, auto regressive process. an autoregressive (ar) process, remembers where it was ... armovingaverage or arma, also arima, are key to describe markets
@rlmcelreath and a little pedagogy on "" fallacy https://t.co/qx7nne67i1
fact: every part of a flip is 75/25 for heads or tails.
@nathanpmyoung @peterhartree theoretically, aleatoric uncertainty is “irreducible” uncertainty; it’s all of the uncertainty that a perfect model would have. if you predicted that a has a 50% chance of coming up heads, that 50% is aleatoric uncertainty
@bitcoincarl_ no, unless: i can choose a and i can reiterate the bet.
@iainmartin1 even a throw of a will generate heads 1/2 of the time, and even on the ukraine, it could be argued that boris failed. chaotic decision making in the best assessment.
with crypto, people started making money before fixing it. they forgot about the real mission because they dont really care. privacy by default for the decades to come with a distribution. $grin
@shouldbuybtc @bitcoincarl_ if it's a i'll take that risk all day
@bitcoincarl_ is it a ? or a weighted coin?
@backeddyback @talktv @drdavidbull @jkyleofficial great call, we've lost too many alternative career opportunities these days - some hard graft for a never did a decent person any harm 💪
you see in a frequentist perspective when you toss a coin and it comes up heads the maximum likelihood estimate for p(head) is 1 which is obvious nonsense but contrast with the bayesian perspective which would weight this by the strong prior of a and instead . . . https://t.co/gktw4fqt6q
@niall_boylan “it is wild that people who can’t predict what a will be on its next flip are so certain that if you flip it a few million times the results will be 50% heads and 50% tails.”
@happysleepwalk @adamjnafa @bmwiernik this boils down to "before you flip , there's a 50% chance of heads" vs. "after you flip a , the randomness has been removed and there is no probability". but i think the latter and former conflict with each other.
i bought this at an antique store in galveston. it’s a new york world’s with someone’s name and social security # on it. if you are related to a a.c. hendrix - ss# 740558563 let me know. twitter do your thing. 👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽 https://t.co/d3t1gx9lsr
@theonelanceb let me respond with another question: would you pay 1mll$ for playing a -flip game in which you either earn 50mll$ or 0$? the ev is higher than the price so ideally i'd play the game. in the real world, however, i'd take the 1mll$ if it represented 25x my current wealth.
@sdachen but you said a is a given.
given a , how many consecutive heads will you want to see before you start considering that the coin is not fair?
heh. i named my earthbound characters after the main characters of my first novel, , which led to this unexpectedly appropriate interaction... #nes #nintendoswitch https://t.co/pgfgzk2z7l
@edwin_teejay @eeevgen where you define c : \omega -> s to be the tossed 10 times, where \omega is an arbitrary probability space. this makes clear it is the range and distribution of the rv that matters, not the domain or underlying measure. the whole chapter starts with the wrong idea.
@edwin_teejay @eeevgen in turn, consider example 3.1.1, which perhaps better illustrates my point. they define s as the set of outcomes of 10 tosses, and x : s -> r as the number of heads. the right way is to formulate s as the *range* of a random variable, not its domain.
honestly would’ve loved to had this in the final cut. it’s sweet and adds context to the worlds . not to mention janine speaking so plainly about ghosts is really neat.
@channelinspirit i'm convinced this scene was cut because janine pocketing the world's would be confusing to most viewers. even without a close up on it most gb fans know what it's referencing, but to most people it'd mean nothing and it's from a deleted scene.
@page_eco i like this way of thinking about it. if i knew exactly how hard it was flipped, on what angle, under what environmental conditions, i could predict perfectly the outcome of the flip. but i can't.... all i know is that it's a . so the best i can do is 50-50.
@cursedvserov it's a bayesian thing, if say you flip a and get three heads, it's likely you get more tails in later throws as a correction so the odds stay 50% overall. predicting purely off of prior win streak is obviously non-sense
@jjhall_77 yes, it is taken out of context. i never said this. i was stated that a is not predictable. the wapo reporter snipped a part of the statement (emailed statement mind you). it is obviously not true, and, is indeed silly. request for correction went unheeded.
i honestly pick the cryptoanarchist side like maybe at a rate of a toss. i pretty much feel like governments and the state monopoly on force have to exist or a vacuum just emerges to be filled by a mob or a pseudo-gov.
@maxnordau @varadmehta @ejmiller25 best call of 2020: the cook report designated 27 house seats as "toss-ups". the rs took all 27. to put this in perspective: the chance getting 27 heads in a row with a is (1/2)^27 or ~1/135,000,000. (cook is the "gold standard" in congressional election analysis.)
@thecoastguy why, are you not getting your when you are busking?
@engineers_feed heads. if you're not smart enough to realize it's not a you deserve to lose the bet.
@gregtrayling @engineers_feed i highly doubt that you can find a mathematically in your wallet.
@engineers_feed read as though it's not permitted as fair play , i don't agree it's a .
@engineers_feed definitely tails, your coin is rigged and you never said it is a .
@jason_pharr @p_pranav__ @engineers_feed i think you are right. they never said it is a to begin with.
@bananahamarama @engineers_feed well, you can’t say that for certain. the odds are long, but it can happen with a . to be exact, the odds are (1/2)^100
@bellikozan math: either, with equal probability. prior random outcomes don't affect future ones. engineering: heads again. that's almost certainly not a . street smarts: whichever i bet against. i know a hustle when i see one.
@engineers_feed there’s a 1/2^100 = 1/(2^10)^10 = 1/10^30 chance of that, so probably guess heads; it isn’t a .
@engineers_feed i'll tell you if you have not been lynched after flipping the coin 100 times and it landing on heads every time. no assumption of a "".
@matteroflarry @jason_pharr @p_pranav__ @engineers_feed only for a , for which you have zero evidence of this one being.
@engineers_feed it's 50:50. assuming a .
@matteroflarry @jason_pharr @p_pranav__ @engineers_feed i think it’s more likely that the coin is a trick coin than they actually got 100 straight heads on a
@engineers_feed to those, who keep mechanically repeating "since the coin is fair" - forget it, it is not, it is as far from "fair" as it gets. to put things in perspective 2^100 > (10^3)^10=10^30. if someone's "fair" coin behaves that way, the person is a crook. as for those who believe it ...
@engineers_feed prior 100 flips should tell you that the coin is not fair, but crooked. that explains the 100 heads observation, which has astronomically small 2^-100 probability on a . the next flip is not 50:50 as you'd expect from a . expect another head from a crooked coin.
@engineers_feed you didn't indicate that it's a . given the scenario you described, it's extremely unlikely that the coin is fair. it's far more likely that the coin has "heads" on both sides. therefore: heads.
@engineers_feed either 50/50, you are the luckiest guy on earth, or it's not a
@engineers_feed heads. un. : 0.5 h: 0.5 t
@engineers_feed it's 50/50 if it's a but if not i think it's still going to be head
@engineers_feed probably heads. because at that point, it's not a
@fcfc_blinders @engineers_feed that assumes its a .
100% heads the odds of this happening using a “fair” coin are 1 in 1 267 650 600 228 229 401 496 703 205 376 … so i’m guessing this coin is biased to land on heads …
@engineers_feed for an explicitly , that notion collapses to 0 for everywhere save for when x is 50% and the integral yields 50%
@akhilkumarbatra @jgrimm87 @john19723176 @engineers_feed question doesn’t mention that the coin is fair (i.e. 50/50) - given that first 100 flips actually matter since it would be very unlikely to get 100 heads with a so we can assume it’s not a (by p-test)
@engineers_feed the fact that the coin landed on heads 100 times in a row pretty much guarantees that it will land on heads again. because the probability of of "fair" coin toss landing heads 100 times in a row is 7.888e-31. that's basically 0 (zero) it indicates that the coin has a bias.
100% confidence that the coin is not a
@baobaobao369 @engineers_feed yeah there's definitely a problem with the coin. what kind of makes 100 heads in a row? if the coin is fair, maybe the throw isn't fair
@engineers_feed assuming , 50%
@engineers_feed can we see the coin? no where in the setup do you state that it is a . assuming a perfectly with heads one side and tails the other, and a fair flip, then 50/50
@engineers_feed it will land heads. no way that is a if it landed heads one hundred times in a row.
@engineers_feed you didn't specify a "fair" coin so empirically i'd say heads. theoretically you might think it's still 50-50. for a very humorous take on this you can read tom stoppard's rosencrantz and guildenstern are dead
@engineers_feed ? 50/50, unknown? not a and likely will be heads.
@engineers_feed the better question is how likely is it that it still is a (50/50 probabilities)?
@buckcllr @oddmathematicus @will__barrow @engineers_feed cllr you are assuming it is a . the prompt does not state this as a fact. (if you think back to school the prompt will always include this fact.) given only the facts we have in the prompt - 100 of 100 heads - it would be foolish to accept/assume this is a "fair" coin.
@oddmathematicus @buckcllr @engineers_feed this is the correct answer. absent additional information (and given the extremely unlikely result of 100 straight heads on a "fair" coin), it would be foolish to think that this is a "fair" coin.
@engineers_feed according to the ten billion human second century odds, your coin is not a . 100% sure you should take another coin.
@engineers_feed heads, 'cause that ain't no
@engineers_feed i'd guess heads assuming it wasn't a .
@engineers_feed i would say 50/50 but if it landed 100 times heads it's very likely to not be a and i'd guess heads .
@engineers_feed heads... that's a rigged coin you are flipping. your statement didn't say you were flipping a 'fair' coin.. and the empirical evidence against this being a normal coin is overwhelming.. (.5)^100 = 7.889e(-31).. so no way that is an ordinary minted coin.
@engineers_feed is it a ?
@engineers_feed if it is a , it's 50-50 heads. however, given the joint probability of 100 straight heads with a is around 7.9 x 10^-31, i think i would infer un and choose heads.
@engineers_feed you didn’t tell if it’s a . given it’s fair, probability of landing head or tail is 50%. if not fair, probability will be p (where p is the probability of getting head in the un lol). i think p can be 100% given we know it was head 100 times earlier.
@engineers_feed well, if it’s a 50/50, but with 100 heads in a row i’m starting to think you have a harvey dent coin with heads on both sides. https://t.co/avuiskrdnr
@engineers_feed the chance of this being a is less than 1/100000. so lets presume that it is not a , then the result will most likely be heads. in the very unlikely situation its is a chance would be 50-50 heads-tails
@buckcllr @will__barrow @engineers_feed double head is as possible as any other sort of coins, including the "fair" one. so far we have only information of 100 "heads" of 100 tossings. the common application of the "" model is a school legacy of solving textbook problems rather than the real ones.