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@engineers_feed heads, since you have not stated that it is a .
@engineers_feed it’s supposed to be an independent flip. therefore, still 50% of probability given a .
@engineers_feed heads, because your experiment has statistically demonstrated that it isn't a .
@engineers_feed it depends on whether it is a . if yes, then there's a 50/50 chance to land heads or tails. else, it seems more probable that it will land heads (judging by maximum likelihood etc).
@engineers_feed the coin is not a 😂😏 what did tails do to deserve this misfortune?
it depends on whether the coin is a ! if it is not, the likelihood of getting h is higher. otherwise, for every toss of a , the likelihood of getting h or t should be equal because it is not dependent on the previous toss.
@oddmathematicus @buckcllr @engineers_feed i could still get 100/100 head flips. it's rare but not impossible.
“do you believe in an afterlife, egon?” janine wondered softly. “given that ghosts are here? likely,” egon nodded. “and do you believe in…us?” janine went on. “…i do, yes,” egon found her world’s in the dish by the mantlepiece and fondled it softly. #amwriting
@engineers_feed assuming it is a , the probability of tails landing is 50%, but taking into account previous tosses, the probability that you are using a is very, very low, so heads.
@buckcllr @engineers_feed you are assuming it's a , which he never specified.
@engineers_feed depends on if it's a . given the odds of a getting heads 100 times in a row, it's probably rigged. so i'd bet heads.
@engineers_feed it is so strange so many people instantly consider a coin being a "", though the statistics they have hardly support it. in fact, the chance to get head is 100/101, by statistics rule.
@engineers_feed heads the coin sounds like an unfair one, but if it’s a then chances are 50/50 either side
@engineers_feed are you flipping a ?
@engineers_feed probability of a doing 100 same is so small you most likely do not have a . highest probability of next flip with that coin is therefore heads again.
@engineers_feed it's not a ,so heads
@engineers_feed is it a or a biased coin?
@engineers_feed it's 50/50 unless the coin has only heads, because a probability of getting series of a 100 heads is 0.5^100 with a , i.e quite small
@engineers_feed or, if it is a , 50% chance heads or tails every flip. coins don't remember.
@engineers_feed heads, because it's obviously not a .
@georgeisa1 @engineers_feed 100 out of 100 heads suggests it is not a
@engineers_feed 50% chance it will land either heads or tails assuming the coin is a "fair" coin.
@engineers_feed if it's a then 1/2. but the likelihood of getting heads 100 times in a row is (1/2)^100 for a which is exceptionally small and tends towards zero.this would indicate that the coin is biased and if it is biased then most likely the next toss will also be heads.
@engineers_feed assuming it is a , fairly thrown, the odds are 50/50. the coin can't remember what happened before.
@stranded1970 @jeffawilson1 @engineers_feed aren’t all the specifically ordered outcomes equally improbable? question of whether it is a or not is still valid since it wasn’t stated. (and does it even have tails?) :)
@engineers_feed if it's a : 50-50 chance of head or tail.
@engineers_feed heads. it is obviously not a .
@engineers_feed you haven't said it's a . a would be 50/50 chance of heads vs. tails. given it could be a non-, it's far more likely to be biased to heads as the a priori probability of the prior outcome is 1 in 2 to the 100th power.
@engineers_feed it is possible, just extremely improbable, for a coin to land heads 100 times in 100 flips. that in itself increases the probability that the coin is not a , and therefore would most likely land heads again on the next flip.
@engineers_feed i think at this point you should investigate if it’s really a 😂
@engineers_feed asking a question. i know that if it’s a , it’s a 50% chance of heads or tails. but! experimental probability usually catches up with theoretical probability. flip a 100 times, it should be close to 50 and 50. 1000 times, and-percentage wise-it should
@engineers_feed a toss is mutually exclusive. 50/50 on the 101th toss it will be heads again. i would beware from the us nickel. the probability of a us nickel landing on its edge is 1 in 6000 tosses. so better not bet your home on heads just yet.
@engineers_feed assuming it is a , the events are independent so the probs are .5 .5
@engineers_feed if it is a , i don't know. probably 50% heads and 50% tails, each toss is independent, regardless of past toss results. consecutive heads are possible, even with a .
@engineers_feed we need some priors. is it a or a coin with heads on both sides, or something in between? ie tell us p(h) for this coin.
@engineers_feed if it’s a then 50/50 but the way it’s described indicates a problem with laws of the universe. or the coin.
@engineers_feed since you didn't say it was a , the evidence points to heads
@engineers_feed if it´s a , it will still be 50/50
@dcorsetto 1. save that could be worth a at an antique roadshow inquiry. 2. didn’t know condoms have an expiration date.
@justfisk1 @erikvoorhees @tuurdemeester i would argue that grin is the most
@corey_yanofsky @mdekstrand ofc diaconis et al has shown that you can have an "unfair toss" due to the dynamics so i think this is an important break down of the problem to figure out what a vs toss is
@mdekstrand take the toss thing suppose i hold a penny heads up between my fingers and drop it on a hard surface
@muirdragonne @leedsmuseums to be funnels are the best thing
*one* thing that bothers me about vulgar bayesianism is the difference between well-grounded probabilities from guesses based on uncertainty. if i have no idea whether something is true, maybe my credence is 0.5? this is very different from 0.5 credence on a toss!
@andrewje_home @fia @ben_sulayem i really love how every max vercrappen fan cries out "but max did nothing wrong..." while conveniently forgetting that lewis also did nothing wrong. two sides to the 'fair' coin peeps
@porkshake @disclosetv it comes down to large numbers & statistics. you can’t easily predict what the next coin flip will be, wouldn’t bet the farm on heads being next, but with enough flips you know it’s definitely 50:50 if it’s a . would definitely bet on it being 50:50 over a million tosses
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@1cdnhustler @cjtdevil @thomasdrance you take a coin and flip it 9 times. it’s heads 5 times, tails 4 times. is it a ? is it biased to come up heads? how many flips before you’re confident one way or the other?
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@zerohedge to be fair, coin is an absolute disaster. bad timing by cathie i guess but i wouldn’t own that shitshow either.
@steele_blade @matterofstats as i was trying to say, it's near a coin toss (50-50) but not quite. if it was a coin toss than these lines would stick to 50%, instead they start at about 52% and max out at about 60%. it's not quite a toss but close. https://t.co/tlnvfax8ar
@insightlane @matterofstats i wonder if the trend line slope matches that of a coin toss? ie what streaks does heads achieve in a . it should don't you think?
fact: the dark ages was a period of a flip is 75/25 for heads or tails.
inefficiency is a necessary condition for superior investing. attempting to outperform in a perfectly efficient market is like flipping a : the best you can hope for is fifty-fifty. https://t.co/1e4crgcahv
@lindawgtwitch @spoo_kay can you fix me? i'll pay you
@svpino you can't promise it's a when it comes 20 out of 20 like that! because this "real" "observation" undermines your first statement. maybe you could have said "i hypothesize that coin is fair",then after this result you conclude that your hypothesis was very probably false
@_checkmatey_ @paveldcr in which world is pow a distribution ?
@onion2k @svpino to be precise, the probability that what he calls a is not … then there’s also the high probability of a belief system anticlimax… he said: i said “you flipped the coin “ … what a depressing thought it’s. cheap fluke from an english as a foreign language practice
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@felixmohr86 @david_truesdell @svpino you can actually start out with 20 heads in a roll. if it is a , the probabilities approaches one-half after a large number of trials. this question brings into perspective two points. the first is the law of large numbers. the second is independent events.
whenever rupaul sits down to make a song, god flips a coin* to see if it’s autotune hell or actually quite catchy *i didn’t say it was a
@bentilly4 @quantamagazine i’m not sure what you mean by “you need a known ”; you do need to identify s *along the way*, but you do not need to be supplied with an extra , or told that some coin in the set is fair. here is an explicit decision tree for n=13 in 3 comparisons. https://t.co/hcw9a9eraj
@gregegansf @quantamagazine you need a known to do that. else the number of ways it tips either way on the first weighing has to be even, taking away 2 possibilities.
let's get back to my . i'll toss it five times. which of the following is more likely to happen? 1. four heads in a row, then tails. 2. five heads in a row.
@enemyinastate 50:50 chance is not same as 50% relative risk reduction. 20 -flips expect 10 tails=death. but 50% rrr means that tails10x0.5=5..so now 15 heads, 5 tails instead of 10t,10h
@imjoe_king @247bassmusic @arsenal_editor yes, he can. he might, mightn't. pepe is just like nuno, just like flipping a in sequence, just like a scratch & win ticket. you never know what you're gonna get. you're never sure which version is gonna show up. we know what we're gonna get with saka everytime.
@svpino gonna build a joey wheeler deck and use your to send some people to the shadow realm💀
@nonmeek instead of studying macroeconomics, they should have given them a to toss. saves time and improves psychology. 😎🤣
@svpino they are right because does not mean you're also fair. 1/2^20 is so little poissibility for any event. so you are not fair or that is a miracle.
mathematician: . probability of heads is 50:50. economist: seems very rare... to get heads 20 times in a row is very unlikely. we reject the premise that the coin is fair to begin with.
@probfact here, we also need f to be a non- negative valued function otherwise the inequality may not hold. consider x to be the number of heads in 3 tosses of a , and let f(x) = x - 3. clearly, the above inequality does not hold for positive values of t.
@svpino the next flip is going to be 50/50, so no idea what's happening next... i love the “gambler's fallacy”! my favourite manifestation of this is how people would react to that with "hey santiago, you are cheating, that's not a ”, versus... 1/2
@svpino however, given the 20 heads in a row, it is hard to believe we are looking at a
@svpino if it’s a the odds are 1 in 2. i’m willing to go for that. if you think but are wrong, or are misrepresenting the coin as fair, then a bayesian approach is better.
@svpino 50% chance. its a . the only detail to point out is how lucky i've been to flip heads 20 times, or i may have a special secret coin flipping technique
it's impressive to watch $arkk sustain its 1q-earnings pace of portfolio blow-ups here in 2q season while the market is ripping. $coin yesterday, now $tdoc. to be fair, $coin wasn't earnings, merely totally foreseeable regulatory news.
@heblingvieira @lorenrd @svpino probability always resets at the moment of observation, it is not accumulative. by simple act of observing a , the flip will be fair. by observing trust, the flip will be heads. observing doubt will bring in chaos
@bowtiedbettor @bowtiediguana @bowtieddevil ?
@svpino check your assumption.
@gjmos @avikumart_ @svpino it's rare to see a real coin be a ... it is not designed for flipping
@svpino it’s a with heads on both the sides. so you will get heads next time too.
@svpino as the new flip is independent of previous flips, the probability is 1/2, given that it's a .
@svpino we just debugged an error in our probabilistic computer where the bug was caused by us regularly getting 32 heads in a row using a “”. when you make 100 billion samples every second in a computer, 1/2^32 is not a rare event after all …!
@aemonorien @svpino alright then dr phil, look at it this way: what are the chances this 20 straight head coin is actually fair? my bet is that the chances of @svpino being “mistaken” about its fairness are higher than it being a and landing 20 straight heads.
@svpino if you are correct about it being a , the next flip is still a 50% chance of heads. but if we start with an unknown coin and get 20 heads in a row, we should presume that the coin is unfair and that there is about a 96.6% chance the next flip will also be heads.
@svpino null hypothesis : alternative hypothesis: un 20/20 heads would yield a p-value <0.05 i would go with heads as it's an un.
@svpino if you want a human answering this, a 50-50 chance of both as the flips are independent so a will always result in 50-50. if you want a machine answering it then >99% chance it'll be head
@svpino probability that a gets 20 heads in a row: (1/2)^20 probability that the person flipping is pulling a scam based on "rosencrantz and guildenstern are dead": more than that
@deepakns @svpino these results are possible with a .
@svpino there is not a . you cannot know if coin is fair or not. if it is independent event, likelihood of getting head or tails will be 1/2.
@svpino if it's really a , then there's a 50/50 chance of heads vs tails. but if it was really a (and a fair toss - you might be cheating me on the toss) then the odds of that streak was one in a million. i'm guessing the next flip will be heads.
@svpino it'll be heads. the probability that you're lying about it being a is _significantly_ higher than the probability of getting 20 heads in a row, so on the weight of the evidence available i think the coin always lands on heads.
@pravesh @deepakns @svpino right. it’s not about how rare the specific sequence is. it’s more about how extreme it is. if we’re hypothesis testing, we wanna know if this sequence *or more extreme sequences* is unlikely to happen with a . here, this (along with the 20t seq) is the most extreme.
@svpino promise is very tricky thing but in case it is really a certified then 50-50 chance of head or tail in the next flip.
@svpino what happens next is that i take the coin away from you scammer :d. as much as you might promise, this is *not* a .
@svpino each flip is probabilistically independent of the last, so the next time you flip it will be a toss just like the other tosses. the sequence is improbable, but there's an infinite amount of improbable sequences.
@svpino this depend on how you define a . if you defined a coin 50% tail and 50% head, then i will expect a head or tail. but is still possible that both side of the coin is head.
@svpino since you've promised the coin is a ....and since result of each flip is independent of any previous or next flip, the probability of next being heads/tails is 0.5
high probability of a head because that's not a . if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck... 😂
@svpino it can't be a . 10^(-7) is way too low. so i don't trust you.