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it's a . you have flipped it 20 times and gotten heads in all 20. 20 out of 20! but i promise the coin is fair. what do you think will happen the next time i flip the coin?
i flipped a 5 times in a row and they all came up heads. and if we can do it a mere 9 more times, the democrats will win the midterms forever. so vote already.
god loves you so much, and how special you really are, created by his very own hands. that the chance someone has your exact dna, you would toss a into the air and it lands on heads 6.4 million straight tosses. 😊 wow say it backwards wow
@kareem_carr with 20 independant heads in a row i reject the hypothesis of a ...
@privateimtiaz @warrroom the proof of work mining system is indeed most distribution after initial start up, in about 120 yrs (and before then as well), the monetary theft industry (which accounts for more than 50% of current global activities) will fall well below 1% bullish on human action.
@wgervais flip a ... very random. does cost the price of one coin, however.
@sexyjesston @paulfidika @tsolserer like if i have some number i encrypt and you have some number you encrypt and we commit to the them and then provide our decryption keys, multiply the two numbers, then take the result mod 2, do we have a flip?
@ohildcmdva @realglennhughes @kareem_carr it’s the “even though” that seems off the mark. 20 heads followed by a tail is also less (half as) likely than twenty heads (with a ).
randomness is a modelling tool. probability is a model output. and you have to think about what the appropriate model is for a given situation. is it like independent tosses? drawing from a deck without replacement? or maybe the coin has an unknown bias?
@realglennhughes @kareem_carr nope. if you had 20 heads in a row, the chance of getting 21 (ie, one more head) is a half (assuming a toss).
google interview question, can you solve it? (it's surprisingly tricky!) say you flip a until either heads heads tails (hht) or heads tails tails (htt) shows up. is one more likely to appear first? if so, which one (and with what probability)?
@redistrict @cookpolitical in 2020 there were 27 seats in @cookpolitical's toss up column. the r's won 27/27. the chance of getting 27 heads in a row with a is 1/135mm. just sayin'.
@seriki001 is it a ?
the salient fact here -- whether you want to go full bayesian or not -- is that if someone tells you they've got a and then flips 20 consecutive heads, you can be pretty sure it's not a .
@qtyop i have to land again in the point: how do you know it's (ever or still) a ? is it telling somehow, out of phaenomena?
@captachab point is a can doubtless land tails 20 times in a row. if you only know a coin landed tails 20 times in a row then you will infer it is not a very likely. but if you know a landed tails 20 in a row then... ...
@captachab unless you know it is a .
@qtyop i think it's much more likely to go on the same, because it's almost 100% sure it's not a .
a toss between the two.
@realglennhughes @kareem_carr with a 20 heads followed by a head is exactly as unlikely as twenty heads followed by a tail. of course, if you don’t know if the coin is fair twenty heads in a row is compelling evidence it’s not.
@hodgesmr littlewood's law suggests an event occurring with odds of one in a million, which seems like a fine heuristic. is it as likely as flipping 6 heads in a row with a ? or drawing three of a kind in a poker hand? or rolling box-cars with two dice?
there are two problems with using the classical definition in trading and investing. a. circularity: equal likely means equally probable. this is a known problem with this definition. b. outcomes in markets are not equally likely. if we assume that, then it is a toss
@chain_smokerzz @urespinosa @memecrashes that’s not true. if i flip a and it lands on heads 10 times that doesn’t increase the odds that it’ll land on tails the 11th time. the coin has no brain, nor does the universe. it doesn’t *know* it needs to do that. probability will remain unchanged, 50/50.
@memecrashes if someone hands you a coin and says its a and you flip it 50 times and it lands heads every time then it is very likely that it will land heads again on the 51st flip. this is because the coin is likely not a and the person who told you it was made a mistake
@bleese_anoni @sam847275 @barik_pragnesh @memecrashes if you flipped a 20 times and got 20 heads, you'd be more likely to get fewer heads if you flipped it another 20 times. this doesn't mean that the trials are dependent, only that the more you stray from the mean, the more likely your next result will be closer to it.
@bowtiedbettor @bowtiediguana what are the parameters of the flip game? what is the ante per flip? is the ante constant? what happens after a tie?
@f__airplay to the mooooooooon
@xanthorxiii @king_mera95 are you referring to when janine gave egon the world's ?
@ajtourville @twitter @elonmusk but statisstics bro. lol if a coin flip comes up heads 30 times in a row….it isn’t a . a bayesian smells twitter’s bs.
@the_real_fly goldman's economists have a .
the third condition is slightly more tricky here's an example of a markov chain that *doesn't* satisfy it: the classic random walk on the integers start at zero and flip a ; on heads, go up one, and on tails go down one
4/ law of large numbers everything balances in the end. if you flip a 1,000 times, you'll get ~500 heads. (bonus tip: prevent "uh, ackchyually"s by using the term "") https://t.co/mywlib4exu
@clementy_ep that assumes independence of events (ie. a ). my question basically is whether you should adjust your estimate every so slightly (say 50.037%) for the scenario in which the coin is not fair. or at what point (how many throws) should you start suspecting/adjusting?
what does "flip" mean? it could mean throwing a coin in a fair and random coin toss. it could also mean turning over the coin to the opposite side. the first part makes sense as a toss. now let's look at the second part. https://t.co/nywccpivyk
@guyjames23 i remember them! i spoke to some of the people at a cotech meet up like 5 years ago. their hearts were definitely in the right place and the values are massively on point for the dao space today. is it still going?
@huigensand @marriottnigel @yungkitty404 obviously not it’s a coin 🙄🙄 but if it’s a and if it hit heads so many times it can’t just keep hitting heads forever cuz that wouldn’t be fair
@yungkitty404 false. for a , the probability of tails is independent of whatever happened before.
@scottcoleman55 a would've been better, he's been wrong way more than right.
a magic two-sided that when you flip it, it either: 1. summons a messenger pigeon that brings you $20. - or - 2. summons an albatross that baby birds a mouthful of hamburger helper on your head
@stickandballguy @randomsprint take the question, “mr. smith flipped a twice. the results were not both tails. what is the probability they were both heads?” is this basically the same question? does it have basically the same answer?
@pittypatches @thoughtvaccine @randomsprint if i flip a twice, and privately record the results, and then tell you, “the result was not two tails,” or “the result includes at least one heads,” and ask, “what is the probability they’re both heads?”, that is also about combinations but the probability is not 50/50.
@1mitsho @nomasapienrt they are two sides of the same "fair" coin , its amazing how young people are joining in misleading each other over such issues.politics in zim has become so toxic
nevertheless, if there are enough coins then after t(e) flips almost certainly one of them will come up heads every time. and so almost certainly you will be nearly convinced that is in fact biased.
@stephen90045069 @keillerdon @sniemn @c0rrect1on @johnson_wrjohn1 @royalacresrod @freddie07068768 @ingersolrobert @chimera414 @mikeworkman @johnpisulamba @martinbrampton @mike_maric @jsharkjill @offgridtech_net @markp1950 @mikedel21893959 @icnirpmick @cjtjgeol @leopolddilge @tcaddy5 @ianhugh07940666 @brknman @barleyno2 @dirmagnos @tark4real @weberj502 @dawntj90 @larsnewbould @humbugsonof @wayneallanh @ianbrow97534170 @docca75 @lesjohnsonhrvat @drfeedbacker @josiele62818667 @nick_advice @deirdreritchi10 @barrtecforever @iandjbrown2 @footofwrath @dick_zinno @insane_voice @bobande42235496 @plindseyusa @textranquilo @dickmackintosh @winwithscience @douglasritz @cydney0071 the mathematical error margin is accurate for a . but we do not know if the coin is fair 🦉😢.
@johncarlosbaez that' exactly why i wrote ! cool!
@johncarlosbaez you need 1 bit to represent head and tail in a (0,1). when you know the result, you gain 1 bit. is it right?
once in the water, he finds a , then a gold ring with a diamond, then another coin. later on, brandon "finds" the walmart ring. the gold ring is a class ring. #heartwarming https://t.co/r2bpxp9how
if you were a and i had a toss, what are my chances of getting head?
@spaceprizm prizm(pzm) coin was created for the people, for different social strata. a . coin generation in every purse. it is enough to activate a purse and buy one coin
@nucks_hockey @24ktmagi if it’s a .
random $spy #trading update, long-short via . nearly normal distribution, > 48% with +ve return, some outliers left and right, some lucky and some unlucky. https://t.co/jywirrolob
@johncarlosbaez @arraymanta @wordweaver_ @dryohanjohn @nicklucid is that not what i'm doing here (below)? this is why i don't like relating entropy to uncertainty. with a you can be maximally uncertain about whether the next coin flip will be heads or tails, but minimally uncertain that it is in fact a .
@m_ashcroft huh it’s often a toss for me.
@benfrosh first time seeing this problem, first impression it's just a meaningless language question about the difference between odds and how many times she can get the answer right. the odds of a landing heads are 1/2
@dovydasjoksas yes, this is a very deep observation. we may feel that flipping a coin and getting hhhhhhh is less probable than getting thhthtt but it's not true for a . still, getting hhhhhhh may convince us the coin isn't fair. it's more "significant". so this is tricky.
for example, if u flip a 50 times, the odds that the specific observed hhthttth.... pattern would occur is incredibly unlikely, but the probability that some incredibly unlikely pattern will occur is 100%. therefore 👇 https://t.co/z04upa0i85
you decide to pick which adult (treatment) a child (stratum) at random. suppose you toss a once for each child – simple randomisation. they might both get heads or both get tails. they get the same adult and the problem is worse because now one adult has both! 2/
@eshear @vgr lab coat wearer says: "assume a "
@sasasatatata4 @johncarlosbaez i've received 5 bits of information under the assumption, 0 under the all heads assumption, and 1 under the "coin always shows the same side" model; to determine the exact number i need some prior over all of these, which is information about the coin flipper.
i have a trick coin that always lands heads up. you believe it's a . i flip it 5 times and tell you the outcome. how much information do you receive? (8/n)
fact: seasons are opposite on opposite hemispheres of a flip is 75/25 for heads or tails.
@richcarkeek @tribelaw one chance in 30,000 squared. it's the most basic probablity. if you flip a twice then what are the chances of two heads? 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4. so it's 1 in 900 million that both would get that audit.
the quickest way to simulate a toss with a biased coin, is to do squats when you have knee pain.
i cannot wait to be done with this fucking math class!!! on my grandma this is my last one! lmfaooo. “suppose you toss a in the air 10,000 times…” like… don’t piss me off 😒😩😅
its a
but it’s more than that. one can have an edge in a bet but with poor bankroll management, it is still gambling. imagine a game of flipping a , if it’s head you get $2 and tail $0, and it costs $0.80 to play. you have an edge clearly. you should play. but what if you can
@aella_girl if a coin is flipped and lands heads several times in a row, you should update your beliefs towards it not being a . so >50% of heads next time. but some random stranger offering a huge prize for the fifth heads strongly suggests trickery afoot, so <<50%, likely 0%.
@sels135 @thetruemissrose @aella_girl if there are three doors, and monty chooses to open a second door, the game-theory strategy is to toss a (fair!) coin, when choosing between the first and third doors. if monty must open a second door, then probability theory says the third door is the right choice 2 times in 3.
@aella_girl how sure am i that this is a ? if i'm not *very confident*, i'll go with "over 50%"
@mindfroth @aella_girl it's a , and previous flips do not affect the chance of future flips. each flip is 50/50, as is the last flip.
@aella_girl we don't know it's a , and straight 4 heads *very mildly* increases the chance that there's something in its weight distribution to make it land heads a little over 50% i'd the time.
@bjarkestats @davepunfun @sylvainribes @aella_girl i think i misread your tweet to claim the probability of it being the t coin is 0.5. the point still stands, though. would you prefer i phrase as "there are two coins, one biased to t and one biased to f. i flip a to choose which of the two to flip, then flip 4 times"?
@bjarkestats @sylvainribes @aella_girl you said i’m trying to establish the fairness of the coin but i’m not doing that, i’m simply pointing out that if we were to initially assume the possibility that it’s not a then given those flips there is a higher chance of it it being biased towards heads.
@aella_girl bayesian stats suggest a decent probability that it’s not, but yes a definitionally has a 50/50 h/t outcome split
@rohan65336929 @brundolfsmith @aella_girl after 4 heads in a row, its still very likely a (if it's for example a us quarter that you have strong reason to believe a priori is fair) but you don't need it to be likely a rigged coin to make it >50%
@2_trenchcoat @brundolfsmith @aella_girl bc i think 0.003% is small enough to suspect that it might not be a , while neither 6.25% or 50% (?????????) are events unlikely enough to warrant that
@bjarkestats @sylvainribes @aella_girl no he’s not saying that that’s impossible he’s arguing that given the evidence there is a higher chance (even if only slight) of it being rigged towards heads. it’s moot now though as the second tweet states it’s a .
@yetkingdom @brundolfsmith @aella_girl but that isn't what happened. we tried it 4 times and we have no reason to believe it's a . it was described as "a coin"
@aella_girl well, of it's a then there is only one answer and the story leading up too the flip doesn't matter.
@sylvainribes @aella_girl in fact we have some decent information that is fairly unlikely the coin is a
@sylvainribes @aella_girl there is also a non-0 probability that it’s rigged towards tails. you have no way of knowing. if it is indeed a the answer is under .5 since there is a non-0 probability that it will not land on either heads or tails. it might land on the side or be caught mid-air.
@aella_girl "it's a " says the strange person offering a $10,000 prize
its a u doofs
@bhudhighivhi this ccc is just the young brother of zanu , they are two sides of a . the other day fadzi was taking part in character assassination of prof moyo in typical charamba fashion..they're playing the game the zanu way and will lose
“agnosticism is more intellectually honest/coherent/spicy/${good} than atheism” is the blandest fideism, goodboiism as first philosophy. flipping a and it never coming up heads would not perturb the agnostic, but pointing out that it is unlikely would be terribly rude.
#frequentist #statisics : if a lands on heads five times in a row, it's still equally likely to come up heads or tails next time #bayesian statistics: if a coin lands on heads five times in a row, it probably isn't fair.
@accretionist @fernandolrei @cryptowhale on last thing: please tell me three great projects which are truly decentralized and hard-capped at a specific maximum amount, having enough hashrate to be strong against manipulation or rather have super distribution between it's users
if you keep getting tails over and over again, you should question, not the laws of probability, but your assumption that you're flipping a .
@10kdiver it is called gamblers fallacy, when the events are independent the probability always remains same. a which turned up head 9 times in a row doesn't mean the probability of it turning up tail 10th time is not 90% but it is still 50%
got a to spare? https://t.co/wrx6etynex
instructions: flip a (or equivalent) twice and select the poll option with the outcome you observed
what's the most underrated crypto in the 🌎 any guesses? *drumrolls*🚨 according to coinfairvalue - it's #tezos even bank of america agrees 🚨 value is supposed to be at 13.4$👀👀🚨 https://t.co/by1mijtgwn we the hidden gem.💎 #cleannfts #tezos
we develop a novel machine-learning-based predictive model for the outcome of the flip.
@8bitboyuk @cb_onetwelve @albinobandit @fanglespangle @chrisgoplay @avgn82 @sharkabytes @colonelfalcon @sammtomas @leesgames @swooper_d bet that collections worth a !💯
more on dred scott: his original claim resembled a , w/ 2 sides: side 1 was the obvious question of slavery: the 13th amendment answered that question. side 2 was his lack of state citizenship: however the 14th "amendment" proposal botched the answer horribly.
bitcoin relying on tx fees in the long run, for the security grin constant block subsidy ensure, long term security. ✔️ a distribution. ✔️ simple and secure. ✔️ $grin $btc https://t.co/ubjbadxv6j
@10kdiver how do you infer this 53.39% in reality? how will you differentiate that result for say, 55.23%? or 72.33%? and its also closer to a simple toss of 50% probability? then, would you round off to that and say, you have 50% chance of becoming a ceo?
if i get 100 heads in a row from a , then it is only fair that the next one is tails, right? right!? https://t.co/rnthxe4fnp
obv did not happen. instead it went lower and a lot of ppl got fuked breaking down the situation many people during the range that bet on directionality, made a coinflip. it wasn't a , i.e. not 50/50, but hard to tell what the probabilities were.
fact: the inside of a flip is 75/25 for heads or tails.