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I was not involved in the LNG ship project. | dev03 |
I shall read the DASH and give you my comments. | dev03 |
Without looking at the details, I think that the decision to charter a tanker removes one significant risk we have at the Elba Island project (please, see point 2). | dev03 |
2. | dev03 |
Elba Island. | dev03 |
I am working with Doug Rotenberbg, Brad Hitch, Scott Earnest (Sally Beck's organization) and RAC to set up the book for the Elba Island transaction. | dev03 |
The next step will be to expand the book to capture all the Enron's LNG-related positions in one place and to look for natural risk offsets and possible hedges. | dev03 |
A working group is meeting to close a few remaining gaps tomorrow (Tuesday) at 8:30. | dev03 |
A few comments on the book design and my view of the project: a. | dev03 |
The current thinking is that LNG will be sourced for the Elba Island facility by buying marginal cargos on the fob basis. | dev03 |
Marginal cargos will represent supply from excess capacity that has not been committed under long-term contracts or became available due to some short-term frictions. | dev03 |
The fob cargos are typically selling at a significant discount to the long-term contract prices. | dev03 |
The economics of the deal, as represented by the book we are setting up, will reflect the assumption that not only we can locate marginal cargos but that we shall be able to do it on a regular basis, arranging shipping and coordinating the facility schedule and natural gas transactions in the US. | dev03 |
In other words, we have a significant logistical and operational risk in this transaction. | dev03 |
b. | dev03 |
The transaction will cover the period of 17 years (with an extension option of 5 years). | dev03 |
Even if we can lock-in the LNG volumes over this time period, we have no ability to lock-in the other side of the spread (US gas prices) for such a long tenor. | dev03 |
This is essentially a tolling transaction with exposure to the LNG - nat gas spread and I would not recommend locking-in only one leg of the spread. | dev03 |
One solution would be to cover, let's say, 50% of he LNG volumes for the first 5 years and lock-in the nat gas side on the US market side. | dev03 |
c. | dev03 |
The book we are setting up will be based on many managerial assumptions regarding sources of LNG, shipping rates, schedules, etc. I would set up a big prudence reserve in case we mark it to market. | dev03 |
d. | dev03 |
My group will work on valuation of some options we have in the Elba Island deal (that are good for Enron) and on the hedging strategy for the LNG positions. | dev03 |
Long-term LNG contracts are typically based on the Japanese Crude Cocktail that correlates very well with Brent. | dev03 |
Vince | dev03 |
David, Thanks. | dev03 |
I cc you on my message to John Sherriff. | dev03 |
Please, let me know what you think about my comments. | dev03 |
Vince | dev03 |
Lauren, Vince | dev03 |
John, Sorry for the confusion. | dev03 |
This is a second tanker on which very few details are available . | dev03 |
The LNG group is working as we speak to provide some information for Joe Sutton before his departure for Paris this (Tuesday) afternoon. | dev03 |
There is no DASH on this 2nd tanker yet. | dev03 |
I asked Dave Gorte on Monday to send me one and was not told that he can provide me with the Mystic Lady DASH as the closest substitute. | dev03 |
Vince | dev03 |
Shirley, No problem. | dev03 |
Vince | dev03 |
Teresa, It's OK to hire S. Tamarchenko as a summer temporary employee. | dev03 |
We need all the help we can get this summer. | dev03 |
I assume it will be 40 hrs a week, as long as ut conforms with all the external and internal regulations. | dev03 |
Vince | dev03 |
Martha, Thanks. | dev03 |
In case you missed an FT article, please take a look at the attachment. | dev03 |
Vince | dev03 |
FYI Vince | dev03 |
Michael, The science of measuring operational risk is in its early stages of development. | dev03 |
There are really no cook-book solutions. | dev03 |
One has to use creativity and a lot of common sense. | dev03 |
Vince | dev03 |
Greg, E-commerce related proposal from Dale Nesbitt. | dev03 |
Vince | dev03 |
John, Yes. | dev03 |
I have additional info about this transaction. | dev03 |
Vince | dev03 |
Teresa, Thanks. | dev03 |
Vince | dev03 |
Reviewed by Mark Williams, SVP Risk Management, Citizens Power The long awaited second edition of Managing Energy Price Risk has finally arrived. | dev03 |
It has been four years since the first edition was published. | dev03 |
During this hiatus, a lot has happened as risk management within the rapidly expanding energy industry has come of age as a respected discipline. | dev03 |
The second edition is a rich compilation of papers by a surprisingly representative group of industry leaders, practitioners and academics. | dev03 |
The books strength is that it reinforces the fact that risk management principles initially applied to a narrow band of energy commodities can and should be applied across a wide array of energy commodities including electricity. | dev03 |
As expected the book does a solid job in capturing an international perspective on the various challenges, which are not isolated to any one continent but are global in scope. | dev03 |
It includes a lengthy introduction that effectively frames risk management progress, advancements and innovations that started in the oil markets in the 1970's and migrated to the natural gas and most recently expanding to the electricity industry. | dev03 |
Managing Energy Price Risk is comprised of 15 chapters, all of which include an introduction, which minimises the disjointedness that you may expect from a book written by a large number of authors. | dev03 |
Other improvements in this second edition include expanded graphics, highlighted panels, detailed appendices and a separate glossary, which provides the reader with additional reference material. | dev03 |
In particular the chapter on energy options written by Michael Hampton is a useful primer and provides the reader with a concise explanation of option theory, pricing, basis risk, delta hedging as well as practical guidelines for distinguishing between hedging and pure speculation. | dev03 |
For the more advanced reader, the chapter on Energy Exotic Options, written by Vince particularly strong as it outlines the challenges associated with the exotics and effectively documents the latest methods used by leading practitioners in pricing such instruments. | dev03 |
Additionally, the chapter on Accounting for Derivative Contracts in the Energy Environment by three consultants from Arthur Anderson, is a well written summary which addresses the numerous tax related issues including a timely discussion on the US Financial Accounting Standards Board's Statement 133 (see EPRM October 1999, page 22). | dev03 |
Having this tax information housed in one concise chapter is of great value. | dev03 |
The second edition however is not without flaws. | dev03 |
In particular, it would have been useful to have more information on the current challenges risk managers are confronted with in the power industry including latest advancements in volatility and correlation estimation techniques. | dev03 |
Additional attention could have also been placed on the shortcomings of the current market structure and methods in finding and applying appropriate hedging strategies and instruments. | dev03 |
In the fledgling power market, this continues to be one of the primary challenges. | dev03 |
In summary, this second edition of Managing Energy Price Risk builds upon the sentinel work laid out in the prior edition and is a valuable reference book for the new recruit or seasoned veteran. | dev03 |
It is a welcome edition to any risk management library. | dev03 |
John, Bill Bradford is on vacation. | dev03 |
I passed your question regarding EXMAR credit rating to Debbie Brackett. | dev03 |
Vince | dev03 |
Enron North America Corp. | dev03 |
I think it makes sense to visit with SKG and obtain more information. | dev03 |
I assume they are located in or near Boston. | dev03 |
I shall be in Boston in mid June and can meet them. | dev03 |
Vince | dev03 |
FYI You can send me short E-mail messages when I travel to an alternative E-mail address: vkaminski@palm.net. | dev03 |
Vince | dev03 |
FYI Vince | dev03 |
Mark, Thanks for the info. | dev03 |
I shall check it out. | dev03 |
Vince | dev03 |
Emma, Thanks and the best of luck in your new job. | dev03 |
Vince | dev03 |
Julia, I am sending you a copy of the nondisclosure agreement I received from a professor at UT Austin. | dev03 |
Three UT academics developed a model that may be useful in our pricing applications. | dev03 |
They envisage the possibility of either selling this model to Enron or of joint research effort in this area. | dev03 |
Can you, please, take a look at the attached legal document. | dev03 |
Vince | dev03 |
Thanks fro your message. | dev03 |
What about June 22? | dev03 |
I have several trips in between May 25 and June 22. | dev03 |
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