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Good to hear from you. | dev34 |
After a great F, had an okay G. Held a lot of term length on the risk/reward play. | dev34 |
Figured if we got no weather, all the customer and generator buying would be my stop. | dev34 |
It was. | dev34 |
Amazing that for the drop in price in H, the strips have really gone nowhere. | dev34 |
just a big chop fest. | dev34 |
i here your arguments, but think they are way exagerated. | dev34 |
Agree with 1.5-2 bcf/d more supply. | dev34 |
Call it 2 with LNG. | dev34 |
Imports from Canada should be negligible. | dev34 |
Now let's assume price for the summer is $4. | dev34 |
No switching, full liquids extraction, methanol and fertilizer running. | dev34 |
Electric generation demand, considering problems in west and very low hydro, around 1.5 bcf/d greater this year with normal weather. | dev34 |
Means you have to price 2 bcf/d out of market. | dev34 |
Don't think $4 does that. | dev34 |
What level did we start really losing demand last year? | dev34 |
It was higher than 4. | dev34 |
concerned about recession in industrial sector thats occuring right now. | dev34 |
Think gas is fairly valued here. | dev34 |
Dont think we're going to 7. | dev34 |
But I think fear of market considering what happened this past year will keep forward curve very well supported through spring. | dev34 |
we're already into storage economics so the front goes where the forward curve wants to go. | dev34 |
Forgot, I'm leaving town tomorrow afternoon. | dev34 |
Will be back Thursday morn. | dev34 |
We'll do it some other time. | dev34 |
but that's my point. | dev34 |
the demand destruction roared its ugly head beginning of Jan. The price level was $9. | dev34 |
Of course there is a lag. | dev34 |
Let's make up a lag time...say one month. | dev34 |
On Dec 1 cash was trading $6.70. | dev34 |
Probably a similar lag on the way down. | dev34 |
Cash is $5.20 today. | dev34 |
How much lost demand will there be in a month if we're still $5.2? | dev34 |
million dollar question if you can answer that. | dev34 |
Ina: Can you get this paid on a rush basis? | dev34 |
industrial demand the scary thing. | dev34 |
no question there are some steel mills and auto factories and plastics plants that were on last november that arent coming up now and its not due to gas prices. | dev34 |
the economy sucks and it will affect ind demand. | dev34 |
freak show. | dev34 |
started at -7. | dev34 |
went to -15 then -7 then finishing out -15 | dev34 |
freak show. | dev34 |
cash started -7 then to -15 then -7 ended -15. | dev34 |
maybe cal 2. | dev34 |
i would not describe him as the hardest working man in the energy business. | dev34 |
i think this is the biggest chopfest in nat gas history. | dev34 |
scale up seller, scale down buyer. | dev34 |
reviewing my aga model and assumptions later today. | dev34 |
i'll see if i have any new inspirations. | dev34 |
are you free at 3:00 today to go over the aga model? | dev34 |
I think you need to check your AGA model. | dev34 |
7.2 bcf/d seems awfully high. | dev34 |
That's saying that had gas been at $2.5, the AGA for the week would have been 151. | dev34 |
Look at the AGA history for last week, this week and next week. | dev34 |
Do you really think the # would have been 151 with no demand destruction? | dev34 |
It wasn't even really cold. | dev34 |
That would have been the highest AGA # of the three weeks by 15 bcf. | dev34 |
Our guys are thinking 4.5 bcf/d. | dev34 |
Pira is saying that Feb as a whole averages 3.5-4 bcf/d. | dev34 |
That's just destruction and does not include new production, if any. | dev34 |
Further Pira estimates that March destruction will be about half of Feb. Assuming that gets to equilibrium: 2 bcf/d demand destruction, 2 bcf/d more production, 2 bcf/d more gas generation demand. | dev34 |
Start with a 400 b deficit and 200 injection days gets you to flat against last years storage in current price environment. | dev34 |
I think we are fairly priced fundamentally, but with huge customer imbalance for hedging from buy side, surprises in the market right now are to the upside in my view. | dev34 |
Course hard to imagine $6 for J. Just sell vol. | dev34 |
Are you around next Tuesday? | dev34 |
so according to your analysis, had we been at $2.5 gas and we were not bordering on a recession, we would have had the highest AGA number of recorded history for this week, last week, or next week by 15 bcf? | dev34 |
seems a little far fetched to me. | dev34 |
Our analysis is saying: gas at 2.50 we would have had 4.5 bcf a day more demand. | dev34 |
that includes commercial residential industrial switching processing... | dev34 |
as far as 2 bcf/d power gen demand- that counts the fact that last year was extremely mild versus expectation of normal summer this year, west will be running every gas unit virtually all hours as power demand is growing maybe 5% still and hydro way down. | dev34 |
every molecule that can will flow west from waha this summer versus little last year. | dev34 |
east power prices really havent reached point of priceing out demand and heat rates healthy enough to where gas can go up without raising power prices to cut demand. | dev34 |
some concern of more efficient replacing less but hard to quantify. | dev34 |
we're trying to build the stack now to estimate. | dev34 |
frac margins now positive for all but most inefficient processors. | dev34 |
will continue coming back. | dev34 |
a little concerned about 2 oil prices. | dev34 |
bordering right there now for places like florida and actually saw fl demand rise 100,000 last week as gas got to parity. | dev34 |
let me look into inj capability. | dev34 |
definitely bigger when field is empty from engineering standpoint so any problems really wont arise until fall when gen demand low and inj capacity lower...my initial thoughts. | dev34 |
bo seems as neutral as everyone else in the market right now. | dev34 |
really inactive. | dev34 |
to clarify, not raging bull. | dev34 |
i like everybody want to see what the inj numbers in april look like. | dev34 |
nobody putting a position on until that starts to clarify. | dev34 |
just think that hedging demand is making market a little short right now making next move up more likely. | dev34 |
would be scale up seller though not really sure why cash trades at 10-15 back. | dev34 |
doesnt make any sense. | dev34 |
however as more fields start turning around throughout month, the stg arb to great in my opinion to keep spread there. | dev34 |
must close one way or the other. | dev34 |
notice that spread tightened to 6-8 towards end of trading friday? | dev34 |
in general think that gas is reaching the elasticity stage right here. | dev34 |
50 cents lower and no switching, no processing, and gain back some demand. | dev34 |
market needs to see some big stg numbers first. | dev34 |
i think the best play right now is to start buying longer term put spreads. | dev34 |
Jan 4/3.5 look great to me. | dev34 |
if we get back to 2.8 and don't match last year's early weather, bombs away. | dev34 |
So my point shown a little bit right now.. | dev34 |
Weather a little cooler for this week. | dev34 |
Overall normal for 6-10. | dev34 |
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