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JV up 12 cents. | dev34 |
Think just as customers got totally fucked last year selling into the rally, they are going to buy all the way down. | dev34 |
Differnence is last year trade very happy to take in all the length. | dev34 |
This year trade not ready to get really short. | dev34 |
Not until healthy inj in April anyways. | dev34 |
I think money from here will be made being short, just question of what and when. | dev34 |
Think there'll be enough hedging demand to keep curve very strong unless phys market just totally rejects price level. | dev34 |
With amount of inj capacity available, hard to believe phys market is going to dictate prices for next couple months. | dev34 |
I think it will be spec and hedgers dictating. | dev34 |
Spec staying on sidelines right now and hedgers buying. | dev34 |
Leads to more upside potential in short term. | dev34 |
My point in V/X was that jv would be strong and cal2 hedging was from sell side leading to pressure on those spreads. | dev34 |
The california term power sales have totally changed that. | dev34 |
Before, the only thing customers were selling was cal 2. | dev34 |
Now, customer interest much more from buyside in cal 2,3 solely from california. | dev34 |
Now turning neutral v/x and x/z. | dev34 |
You have very valid points. | dev34 |
i like q/v more though. | dev34 |
I think you could have 10 cents of upside in that with little downside. | dev34 |
Thoughts? | dev34 |
dinner or drinks tonight? | dev34 |
probably because jeff's out,, but let's go ahead and have it | dev34 |
yes...please change griffith to trading. | dev34 |
thanks, john | dev34 |
Not impressive | dev34 |
I ordered 3 different things...I thought your "wine inventory listings are updated DAILY" ??? | dev34 |
Hard to believe , huh | dev34 |
no real bias today positive numbers sell negative numbers buy... | dev34 |
looking into other stuff | dev34 |
theres only one thing i can think of... | dev34 |
storage field turning around gives cash market completely different feel. | dev34 |
instead of utilities looking to sell gas everday, they look to buy it. | dev34 |
huge difference in feel of mrket. | dev34 |
not so much actual gas but completely different economics of how marginal mmbtu gets priced. | dev34 |
tightening cash market causes cash players to buy futures... | dev34 |
hence the tendency for a spring rally every year. | dev34 |
read heffner today...even he talks about it | dev34 |
What it's trading what I think it's really worth Obviously most bearish the further out you go. | dev34 |
However, the game right now is not sell and hold...although it will be soon. | dev34 |
The game is where will it be tomorrow and next week and next month. | dev34 |
The market is structurally short term gas thanks to our friends from california. | dev34 |
where ca is buying power, williams and calpine and dynegy dont care of the gas costs 450 or 475 or 500 or 525. | dev34 |
irrelevant. | dev34 |
so term is not going down in the short term unless the front comes into the 400's and scares some producers to start hedging or we or el paso can find fixed price lng to the tune of 250,000 a day for 10 years. | dev34 |
i loved them in that i thought they were going to go up...i think they still might 3 weeks ago now short term very bullish neutral medium term neutral neutral longer term neutral bearish | dev34 |
i dont know sounds good to me | dev34 |
any reaction to this? | dev34 |
i think jv strip prices to where we price out enough demand to get to 2.8. | dev34 |
whther that price level is 425 or 725 is arguable. | dev34 |
i think it's close to here. | dev34 |
but when we get to november and we have 2.8 and don;'t repeat the weather of this past winter and we have 2.5 bcf more supply and people realize that we have 2.3 bcf to withdraw before there are any problems...bombs away. | dev34 |
confused... | dev34 |
what are you disagreeing with me in regards to demand destruction? | dev34 |
it was almost worth buying a ticket | dev34 |
just a vicious rumor... | dev34 |
my birthday's not till next year. | dev34 |
how about benjys? | dev34 |
what are you doing tonight | dev34 |
what are you doing tonight? | dev34 |
very funny today...during the free fall, couldn't price jv and xh low enough on eol, just kept getting cracked. | dev34 |
when we stabilized, customers came in to buy and couldnt price it high enough. | dev34 |
winter versus apr went from +23 cents when we were at the bottom to +27 when april rallied at the end even though it should have tightened theoretically. | dev34 |
however, april is being supported just off the strip. | dev34 |
getting word a lot of utilities are going in front of the puc trying to get approval for hedging programs this year. | dev34 |
Sorry, have no idea. | dev34 |
houston would be easy ireland kinda tough | dev34 |
heffner a little bullish, eh? | dev34 |
agree with contango story . | dev34 |
cash to futures pretty bullish but a picture where agressive inj now are bearish later. | dev34 |
so curve should flatten. | dev34 |
also back of curve (cal2,3) under a lot of pressure now. | dev34 |
customers will be buying all the way down and will get fucked just like last year. | dev34 |
contango has been under considerable pressure even with the front falling...any rally should result in those snapping in to 4. | dev34 |
good scalp in my opinion. | dev34 |
definitely seeing your side on the $5 level. | dev34 |
surprised we havent gotten more demand back as we sit at these lower levels. | dev34 |
off to cabo today for a long weekend. | dev34 |
kind of exhausted at work right now so a much needed break. | dev34 |
so argument more switching than outright lost demand? | dev34 |
where are petro prices on a comparable equivalence? | dev34 |
i have a very pretty back of the head cash went out around 2-4 back yesterday. | dev34 |
today it is 3 back right now bo trying to sell j/k at 4.5 on the open | dev34 |
cash goes out trading +1 to +3 j/k a piece | dev34 |
remove me from your email list | dev34 |
On Friday, will there be a private reception or area for us or will our customers get lost in the crowd? | dev34 |
Probably thinking 30 invites for Friday. | dev34 |
Is that ok? | dev34 |
dinner this week? | dev34 |
i'm free mon-wed | dev34 |
just got it today. | dev34 |
thanks | dev34 |
you'll be happy to know i get my car back today | dev34 |
wanna bring me back to work? | dev34 |
heffner how? | dev34 |
was pretty long coming into today just playing the range. | dev34 |
sold everything on the way up. | dev34 |
will be s scale up seller probably through options. | dev34 |
certainly a short squeeze in trade today and i don;t think anything changes tomorrow except maybe trade gets more confident in the short at the higher level andif cash rejects higher prices. | dev34 |
will be buying lots of puts on the way up so i guess for me vol is not toohigh. | dev34 |
What about all the deranged postal workers? | dev35 |
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