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2	While a preemptive tightening move might be warranted in the not-too-distant future to help contain inflationary pressures in the economy, these members believed that a symmetrical directive would best convey the message that no tightening action was contemplated for the weeks immediately ahead.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Incoming data suggested that, after a weak start to the year, foreign economic activity accelerated in the second quarter.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	A few participants also noted that uncertainty about the extent of resource slack in the economy was considerable and that it was quite possible that the economy could soon be operating close to potential, particularly if labor force participation rates did not turn up much while employment continued to register gains.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The uncertainty about the threshold unemployment rate also suggests a differing degree of intensity in the response of monetary policy to deviations of inflation and output to their respective targets.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	But before I return to the prospects for 1998 and the challenges for monetary policy, I will offer a retrospective on 1997.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Members who preferred to retain an asymmetrical directive agreed that, although there was little likelihood of a further policy change during the intermeeting period, such a directive was the best way to convey their concerns about the risks of rising inflation and the potential need for policy tightening over time.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Some participants judged the risks to the outlook for inflation as tilted to the downside, particularly in the near term, in light of the large amount of resource slack already prevailing in the economy, the significant downside risks to the outlook for real activity, and the possibility that inflation expectations could begin to decline in response to low actual inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Some participants also noted that recent readings on some survey measures of consumers' inflation expectations had declined or stood at historically low levels.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The Chairman testifies frequently before the Congress, with the one-year record being twenty-five appearances in 1995, although only seven were directly about monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	So I don’t have a sense—the Committee doesn’t try to gauge what is the right level of equity prices.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Signs of an actual change in inflation were still quite tentative and anecdotal, and they did not warrant an adjustment to policy at this meeting.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	On the upside, recent fiscal policy changes could lead to a greater expansion in economic activity over the next few years than the staff projected.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	On the upside, bottlenecks, supply disruptions, and historically high rates of resource utilization were seen as potential sources of greater-than-expected inflationary pressures, particularly if there were a significant rise in inflation expectations that altered inflation dynamics.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The more inflation rose, the more people came to expect it to remain high, and they built that belief into wage and pricing decisions.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Palmer was a professor at Wharton, a fellow of the American Statistical Association, a worldwide expert on manpower and labor mobility, and a consultant with the Office of Statistical Standards.5 She argued that "a single figure of unemployment, regardless of how it is defined or derived, is inadequate as a basis for selection among [policy] programs.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Domestic respondents to the April SLOOS generally reported tightening their lending standards and experiencing weaker loan demand across all major CRE loan categories during the first quarter.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. "	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Further evidence that firms still have not fully adapted their operations to the latest state of technology also is provided in a recent study4 that attempts to measure the "technological gap"--that is, the difference between the productivity of leading-edge capital and the average productivity embodied in the current capital stock.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Later in the week, however, market interest rates moved up in response to the release of the minutes of the February meeting and the mention therein of some sentiment for a larger policy tightening than had been undertaken.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The strength in corporate profits in the first quarter not only impressed economists, but it also impressed investors, who drove stock prices up earlier this year.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	White-collar, high-skilled employment increased at a much faster rate than employment in the other categories in nearly all cases in the G-7 countries over 1979-95.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	That is a positive for growth.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Although the rate of pass-through from the higher prices of energy and other commodities to core consumer price inflation appears to have remained relatively low, the cumulative increases in energy and commodity prices have been large enough that they could account for some of the recent pickup in core inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In the United States, evaluating the effects on the economy of shifts in balance sheets and variations in asset prices have been an integral part of the development of monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Besides influencing the near-term course of important economic variables, such as gross domestic product growth, inflation, and profits, productivity largely determines our society's long-term economic welfare.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In the household sector, mortgage debt increased at its lowest pace since the late 1990s, reflecting the continued deceleration in house prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Total U. S. consumer prices, as measured by the PCE price index, increased 1.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	However, if real (or nominal) government spending is held constant, the surplus will rise over time as a share of GDP, putting downward pressure on the equilibrium real rate, offsetting, at least in part, the effect on the real rate of the higher trend productivity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Thus, avoiding a further substantial fall in inflation should be a priority of monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	A number of global factors were seen as contributing to downward pressure on term premiums, including central bank asset purchase programs and the strong worldwide demand for safe assets.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Members commented that the continued strong increases in energy and other commodity prices would prompt a difficult adjustment process involving both lower growth and higher rates of inflation in the near term.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	M2 expanded in February, however, as liquid deposits resumed their growth.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The early days of stabilization policy in the 1950s taught monetary policymakers not to attempt to offset what are likely to be temporary fluctuations in inflation.15 Indeed, responding may do more harm than good, particularly in an era where policy rates are much closer to the effective lower bound even in good times.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Now, members of the Committee have different views about why this is likely to be true, that the funds rate—when the labor market is normalized and inflation is back to our objective—they maybe have slightly different views on exactly why it’s likely to be the case that interest rates will be a little lower than they would in the longer run.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Longer-term inflation expectations have moved much less than actual inflation or near-term expectations, suggesting that households, businesses, and market participants also believe that current high inflation readings are likely to prove transitory and that, in any case, the Fed will keep inflation close to our 2 percent objective over time.12 5.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	I presented these estimates in my testimony to emphasize the continuing importance the profession attaches to NAIRU, the central tendency of current NAIRU estimates, and the absence of significant upward adjustments to estimates of trend growth.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In my baseline view, while I do believe it will likely take some time for economic activity and the labor market to fully recover from the pandemic shock, I do project right now that the economy will begin to grow and that the unemployment rate will begin to decline starting in the second half of this year.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	However, making significant use of this option would bias credit flows in the direction of depository institutions and, if the volume of these loans were large enough, could affect the interest rates on the assets, specifically bank loans held by such institutions.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The staff interpreted the increases in prices of energy and nonmarket services that recently boosted consumer price inflation as largely transitory.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	the new statement maintains our definition that the longer-run goal for inflation is 2 percent, it elevates the importanceâ€”and the challengeâ€”of keeping inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent in a world in which an effective-lower-bound constraint is, in downturns, binding on the federal funds rate.5 To this end, the new statement conveys the Committee's judgment that, in order to anchor expectations at the 2 percent level consistent with price stability, it will conduct policy to achieve inflation outcomes that keep long-run inflation expectations anchored at our 2 percent longer-run goal.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	I mean certain parts of South Carolina have developed pretty strongly but the part where I come from—mostly agricultural, it has a little bit of manufacturing—has a very high unemployment rate, a high foreclosure rate, and people are having a hard time there.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	in contrast, however, overall business investment in equipment and software was projected to strengthen in response to the upward trend in replacement demand, especially for computers and software	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Because good forecasts are so crucial to good monetary policy, I hope and expect to see a great deal more work exploring the robustness of alternative forecasting methods.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The strongest case for a link between monetary policy and changes in inflation dynamics is in the greater stability of inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	They generally judged that risks to the growth outlook, including strains in global financial markets, were significant and tilted to the downside	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In addition, coming to grips now with the outsized projected growth in entitlement spending in the early years of the next century could have a profound effect on current expectations of stability.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	These are exactly the concerns expressed in Tom Sargentâ€™s (2000) book on the rise and fall of U.S. inflation, in which he worries that a misunderstanding of the inflation process might again lead to a high-inflation equilibrium.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	They also generally expected that inflation would remain, for some time, below levels the Committee considers most consistent, over the longer run, with maximum employment and price stability.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Clearly, businesses regarded such investments as highly profitable, and they appeared to be leading to gains in productivity that in turn were helping to offset rising compensation and to maintain profit margins in highly competitive markets.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	In Japan, consumer prices were about unchanged, while wholesale prices edged up in March relative to their level of a year earlier and posted the first increase on a twelve-month basis since July 2000.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	As its name implies, this rule does not prescribe a particular level of the federal funds rate at a given time but rather how the existing rate should change from quarter to quarter based on two gaps--the difference between inflation and its desired level as well as the difference between the unemployment rate and its longer-run normal level.20 In contrast to the other two rules, the change rule does not take a stand on the value of the longer-run neutral level of the real federal funds rate, thus avoiding a potential source of error.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	While great uncertainty regarding the path of fiscal policy and its economic effects will remain for some time, with the economy getting closer to full employment, the prospect of a material increase in fiscal stimulus over a sustained period could reasonably be expected to shift somewhat greater probability toward stronger inflation outcomes.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	households’ and professional forecasters’ longer-term inflation expectations edged lower.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Still, most members projected that over the next couple of years, the unemployment rate would remain quite elevated and the level of inflation would remain below rates consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's objectives.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Treasury bond yields declined somewhat, perhaps reflecting both expectations of lower policy rates and greater investor demands for safety.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	It also requires that policy tighten or ease systematically to bring aggregate demand in line with the economy's productive potential, not only because output stabilization is a policy objective in its own right	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The median expectation for inflation over the next 5 to 10 years from the Michigan survey edged down in October to a new historical low, although it was noted that this drop could be explained by a reduction in the number of respondents who had previously expected relatively high inflation outcomes.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Fast growth of productivity, by buoying expectations of future advances of wages and earnings and thus aggregate demand, enables real interest rates to be higher than would otherwise be the case without restricting economic growth.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Overall consumer prices increased in July and August at about the second-quarter rate.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In the absence of such offsetting operations, a decrease in currency demand would raise the amount of reserves and hence lower the federal funds rate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The Outlook for Economic ActivityThe midpoint of the range of projections for real GDP growth declines noticeably from about 2-1/2 percent for 2007 to roughly 2 percent in 2008; then it returns to about 2-1/2 percent in 2009 and 2010.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	November 08, 2021 Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Prospects for U.S. Monetary Policy Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the Symposium on Monetary Policy Frameworks, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share Watch Live Outlooks and Outcomes for the U.S. Economy The U.S. economy in the second quarter of this year made the transition from economic recovery to economic expansion.1 Given the catastrophic collapse in U.S. economic activity in the first half of 2020 as a result of the global pandemic and the mitigation efforts put in place to contain it, few forecasters could have expectedâ€”or even dared to hopeâ€”in the spring of last year that the recovery in gross domestic product (GDP), from the sharpest decline in activity since the Great Depression, would be either so robust or as rapid.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	For example, in the mid-1970s, just when the FOMC began to specify money growth targets, econometric estimates of M1 money demand relationships began to break down, predicting faster money growth than was actually observed.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	It will be a while before we can be sure that a self-sustaining expansion is underway of sufficient strength and persistence to put the economy back on a path toward full employment.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Workers in the lowest-wage quartile face an extremely elevated rate of unemployment of around 23 percent.7 The advent of widespread vaccinations should revive in-person schooling and childcare along with demand for the in-person services that employ a significant fraction of the lower-wage workforce.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Unfortunately, from the point of view of both the analyst and the policymaker, the link between an asset's price and the structure of its return is hard to pin down, as it typically embodies complex factors that are inherently difficult to measure, such as expected future earnings, riskiness, and risk aversion.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Consumer spending firmed somewhat during the first quarter despite the rising unemployment rate and significant financial strains.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Well, you’re certainly right that we have been over-optimistic about out-year growth.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, inflation is close to our 2 percent objective, gross domestic product growth is solid, and the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) baseline outlook is for a continuation of this performance in 2020.2 At present, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price inflation is running somewhat below our 2 percent objective, but we project that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation will rise gradually to our symmetric 2 percent objective.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	But the importance of price stability has sometimes been insufficiently appreciated in our central bank's history, and, as Allan Meltzer will soon point out, such episodes have had unfortunate consequences.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	And—and we do that with measures that—that, you know, keep people in their homes; that—that support hiring; that support growth; that avoid unnecessary, avoidable business insolvencies.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The emphasis was on providing currency and reserves to meet seasonal demands and on assisting banks in accommodating the credit needs of commerce and business.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Several mentioned that the revisions to the NIPA pointed to a modest downward adjustment in projected growth of actual and potential GDP, but thought that potential output growth was likely to be a bit higher than forecast by the staff.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	For 1997 the Committee agreed on a tentative basis to set the same ranges as in 1996 for growth of the monetary aggregages and debt, measured from the fourth quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 1997.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In the labor market, about half of the 22 million jobs that were lost in the spring have been restored, and the unemployment rate has fallen since April by nearly 7 percentage points to 7.9 percent as of September.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The second point that I made was that when short-term interest rates hit zero, the tools of a central bank are no longer—are not exhausted, there are still other things that the central bank can do to create additional accommodation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Indeed, few long-term inflation forecasts in any country currently exceed 5 percent, although Venezuela provides one counterexample, with a long-term inflation forecast now of 15 percent.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Treasury yields rose sharply on its release as market participants traced out the report's presumed implications for monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The current global environment highlights the importance of having strong analytic and empirical foundations to understand financial stability considerations for monetary policy, and the research presented today will help strengthen those foundations.1 The global environment of high inflation and rising interest rates highlights the importance of paying attention to financial stability considerations for monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Although the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer, it remains elevated.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	* * * As the transcripts of FOMC meetings attest, making monetary policy is an especially humbling activity.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	With respect to the new framework itself, the statement now notes that the neutral level of the federal funds rate has declined relative to its historical average and therefore that the policy rate is more likely than in the past to be constrained by its ELB, and, moreover, that this binding ELB constraint is likely to impart downside risks to inflation and employment that the Committee needs to consider in implementing its monetary policy strategy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	So, you know, I can’t—all I can tell you is, we’ll be looking at weak global growth.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	An environment involving such interest rates could have adverse repercussions on the functioning of some sectors of the money market, but the members agreed that the potential extent of such disruptions would not be sufficient to prevent the Committee from taking advantage of the full scope of conventional easing of the federal funds rate, should that become necessary.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Because inflation normally responds slowly to such shocks, inflation targeters could respond in any of three ways.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In addition to u* and r*, an important input into any monetary policy assessment is the state of inflation expectations.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The staff viewed the extent of uncertainty around its March projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation as similar to the average over the past 20 years.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	I mean certain parts of South Carolina have developed pretty strongly but the part where I come from—mostly agricultural, it has a little bit of manufacturing—has a very high unemployment rate, a high foreclosure rate, and people are having a hard time there.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In December, the consumer price index (CPI) rose somewhat faster than in recent months, primarily reflecting an upturn in consumer energy prices	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In response to an unanticipated movement in spending and hence the quantity of money demanded, a small variation in interest rates would be sufficient to bring money back to path but not to correct the deviation in spending.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. "	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The reduced-form price equations we so often use for inflation prediction bypass direct contact with labor compensation issues.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In the Committee's discussion of current and prospective economic developments, members referred to the widespread statistical and anecdotal evidence that the surprising strength in economic activity over the closing months of 1996 was persisting in 1997.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Besley, Meads and Surico's contribution is to ask whether certain characteristics of the policymakers matter for how they vote on the monetary policy committee.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	But, by June, prices had risen 4 percent over the previous 12 months, ticked up to 4.2 percent in July, and increased further to 4.3 percent in August.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Central banks generally appear to have embraced a common model of the channels through which monetary policy functions, although the specifics and emphasis given to those channels vary according to our particular circumstances.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	I look forward to my conversation with Steve Liesman and to your questions, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and our new monetary policy framework.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.

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