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2 | While favorable financing would help to sustain the housing sector, members anticipated that any further impetus to growth from that sector was likely to be limited. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The hurricanes were also expected to depress payroll employment in September, with a reversal over the next few months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In considering the effectiveness of the operating regime, the staff observed that over recent years, the Federal Reserve had been able to implement monetary policy in an environment with ample reserves by adjusting administered rates--including the rates on required and excess reserve balances and the offered rate at the overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility--without needing to actively manage the supply of reserves. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Survey and market measures of long-term inflation expectations did not suggest that the earlier higher inflation readings were going to persist. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Moving to such a system would require assigning monetary policy to the task of targeting exchange rates, and countries are free to do so if they wish. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | With energy price increases expected to slow next year, total PCE inflation was seen as likely to fall back in line with core inflation by the end of 2011, as in previous projections. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Inflation rose further in most foreign economies, reflecting a reversal of price declines seen in the spring of 2020, higher energy and commodity prices, and supply bottlenecks. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Household mortgage debt was expected to expand at a reduced rate in the fourth quarter, reflecting softer home prices and declining home sales, as well as a tightening in credit conditions for some borrowers. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Several participants expressed the view that a decision regarding the long-run composition of the portfolio would not need to be made for some time, and a couple of participants highlighted the importance of making such a decision in the context of the ongoing review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategies, tools, and communications practices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Wage growth is not—there are many factors that affect it—it’s not definitive in any sense in determining our policy, but it does have a bearing on the inflation outlook. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Staff Economic Outlook In the economic forecast prepared by the staff for the June FOMC meeting, real GDP growth in the second half of this year was expected to step up from its pace in the first half. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In furtherance of these objectives, the Committee at this meeting established ranges for growth of M2 and M3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 1999. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Remarkably, 30-year Treasury yields were only slightly lower than 10-year yields throughout the episode, implying that the markets had no confidence that inflation would ever return to 1950s or 1960s levels. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Their forecasts of consumer price inflation for the year, as measured by the PCE chain-type price index, were centered in a range of 1-1/4 to 1-1/2 percent, with a full range of 1-1/4 to 1-3/4 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Some business contacts indicated that wage and price pressures were subdued; however, in one District, contacts pointed to rising wage pressures and labor shortages. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Setting the horizon on the interest rate caps to reinforce forward guidance on the policy rate would augment the credibility of the yield curve caps and thereby diminish concerns about an open-ended balance sheet commitment. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Indeed, virtually every forecast projects a modest rise in broad measures of U.S. inflation this year, reflecting the dissipation or reversal of favorable supply shocks, most importantly the reversal in the path of oil prices, the stabilization of commodity prices and non-oil import prices, and some rebound in health care costs. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And I need not remind you that the low inflation we now have was dearly purchased in the late 1970s and early 1980s with the highest interest rates since the Civil War and the highest unemployment rate since the Depression. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | European equity prices were also lower over the period. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Because his econometric analysis of the available data indicated that money demand was more stable than aggregate demand, Bill formulated a simple rule that adjusted the money growth rate in response to the observed unemployment rate. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Flexible inflation averaging would bring some of the benefits of a formal average-inflation-targeting rule, but it could be more robust and simpler to communicate and implement. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Because, under a simple feedback policy, private-sector expectations are likely to be broadly consistent with the central bank's plans, the effectiveness of monetary policy would be enhanced as well. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | If you look at core PCE inflation, which is a good measure of where inflation is running now, if you look at it on a 3-, 6-, and 12-month trailing annualized basis, you’ll see that inflation is at 4.8 percent, 4.5 percent, and 4.8 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | These included a decline in the cost of business capital, a recent rise in orders and backlogs of nondefense capital goods, persisting gains in productivity that undoubtedly pointed to growing profit opportunities, progress in strengthening business balance sheets, and reduced capital overhangs. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | One member was persuaded that policy had already become so expansionary that further easing ran an unacceptable risk of exacerbating inflation over time. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Nonetheless, the Committee judged that some inflation risks remained. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The 5.4% unemployment rate in 1996 was the lowest annual rate since 1988 and before that since 1973. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In contrast to price inflation, labor costs appeared to have remained quiescent. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Against this background, the members agreed on the need to continue to monitor the economy with care for signs either of a potential upturn in inflation or greater softness in the expansion than they were currently forecasting and to be prepared to respond promptly in either direction. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The staff continued to project that the accommodative stance of monetary policy, together with a further attenuation of financial stress, the waning of adverse effects of earlier declines in wealth, and improving household and business confidence, would support a moderate recovery in economic activity and a gradual decline in the unemployment rate over the next two years. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Participants also noted that unemployment insurance claims continued to run at a historically elevated level, but the proportion of laid-off workers who expected to be recalled was unusually large. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Even so, the growth rate of the ECI did not return to the levels experienced before 2008. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Inflation Targeting and Central Bank Behavior," Federal Reserve Bank of New York, mimeo. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | moreover, slow growth left the recovery more vulnerable to negative shocks. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | They also agreed that the inflation situation seemed to have improved slightly and judged that it was no longer appropriate to indicate that a sustained moderation in inflation pressures had yet to be shown. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Mortgage credit conditions generally remained tight over the intermeeting period, though signs of easing continued to emerge amid further gains in house prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | To achieve its mandated objectives, the FOMC must influence the course of the U.S. economy, helping it to grow rapidly enough to make full use of available resources but not so rapidly as to stoke inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The threat to global economic growth and financial stability posed by the fiscal situation in some European nations sparked widespread flight-to-quality flows over most of the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | So that’s the kind of thinking we’ll be doing, and, again, we’re looking—ultimately, we’re not going to declare victory until we see a series of these, really see convincing evidence, compelling evidence, that inflation is coming down. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Increases in the prices of energy, other commodities, and non-oil imports, as well as reports from some business contacts that higher costs were increasingly being passed through to prices, suggested that the downtrend in inflation had ended. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | There is much about the inflation process that we do not understand, and I have been surprised at the extent of the pickup in core inflation this year. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, members agreed that it would be appropriate to maintain the existing highly accommodative stance of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In particular, investors noted that the Committee attributed some of the recent increase in inflation to transitory factors, retained its earlier balance of risks assessment, and reiterated its belief that policy accommodation could be removed at a pace that would likely be measured. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Although many participants remained concerned about downside risks attending the outlook for inflation, a majority of participants saw the risks to the outlook for inflation as balanced. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | To quantify the importance of the shift in the balance of demand and supply and of the consequent change in the term premium, we can appeal to the research literature on the term structure of interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Inflation had been subdued of late, although the recent increase in crude oil and gasoline prices would push up inflation temporarily. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | On balance, in light of the uncertainties in the outlook and given that a variety of special factors would continue to contain inflation for a time, the Committee could await further developments bearing on the strength of inflationary pressures without incurring a significant risk that disruptive policy actions would be needed later in response to an upturn in inflation and inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Consumer prices had edged up in recent months, but year-over-year consumer inflation remained at a very low level. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The upswing in M2 growth since late winter stemmed in part from the temporary effects of mortgage refinancing, which boosted liquid deposits over this period, though M2 was also buoyed by strong gains in nominal income. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The Committee's accompanying statement indicated that economic growth had been quite strong so far this year. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Members again mentioned concerns on the part of business contacts regarding the adverse economic implications of very large deficits for the economy over the longer term. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Factors pointing to potentially higher inflation included increased pressures on food prices stemming from disappointing harvests in some areas and relatively low grain supplies. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In their discussion of the economic situation and the outlook, meeting participants agreed that information received over the intermeeting period indicated that the labor market had continued to strengthen and that economic activity had been rising moderately so far this year. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Indeed, some members saw underlying inflation as relatively stable and put low odds on the possibility that prices now were accelerating. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In general, financial markets were viewed as well positioned to support more vigorous expansion in economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Of course, if excessive inflationary pressures were to build or inflation expectations were to ratchet above levels consistent with our goal, we would not hesitate to act. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The “extended period” language is conditioned on exactly those same points: “Extended period” is conditioned on resource slack, on subdued inflation, and on stable inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | it does have a bearing on the inflation outlook. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | We also don’t conduct monetary policy in order to prove our independence. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | While each of the Asian economies is unique in many important respects, the sources of their spectacular growth in recent years, in some cases decades, and the problems that have emerged are relevant to a greater or lesser extent to nearly all of them. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The bulk of the variation comes from what finance academics call "changes in discount rates," which is a fancy way of saying the non-fundamental stuff that we don't understand very well--and which can include changes in either investor sentiment or risk aversion, price movements due to forced selling by either levered investors or convexity hedgers, and a variety of other effects that fall under the broad heading of internal market dynamics. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The lagged effects of the earlier rise in the foreign exchange value of the dollar were expected to place continuing, though diminishing, restraint on the demand for U. S. exports for some period ahead and to lead to further substitution of imports for domestic products. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | By reducing our scope to support the economy by cutting interest rates, the lower bound increases downward risks to employment and inflation.22 To counter these risks, we are prepared to use our full range of tools to support the economy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The Committee also noted in March that although output had continued to expand at a solid pace, new hiring had lagged, and increases in core consumer prices were muted and expected to remain low. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In this regard, members referred to earlier unsustainable rates of investment by many high-tech firms that were now obliged to retrench despite still high rates of growth in the demand for their products and services. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Such forces can also cause short-term fluctuations in the economy that are, at least in part, beyond the control of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Turning now to monetary policy, at both its July and September meetings, the FOMC voted to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.3 With these decisions, the current target range for the federal funds rate is 1.75 to 2 percent, which compares with the range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent that prevailed between December 2018 and July 2019. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | A key factor in this assessment continued to be their outlook for rapid further gains in structural productivity that would help to hold down increases in unit labor costs. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | During the 1980s and 1990s, the Federal Reserve succeeded in bringing inflation down from double-digit levels to the average rate of about 2 percent that has prevailed over the past decade. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | If you lay the crosscurrents on top of that—concerns about global growth and trade developments—you have the full picture. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The review of regional economic developments by the Federal Reserve Bank presidents pointed to moderate expansion in economic activity across much of the nation, though growth was described as modest in a few regions and relatively robust in some others. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The tendency may be natural to allow more flexibility when central banks are focused on inflation maintenance than when they seek inflation reduction. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | We have a much more resilient, stronger banking system, and we’re not seeing some worrisome buildup in leverage or credit growth at successive levels.1 So, you know, this is something that the FOMC pays attention to, but if you ask me, is this a significant factor shaping monetary policy now, well, it’s on the list of risks, it’s not a major—it’s not a major factor. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Measures of forward inflation compensation based on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and inflation swaps fell further. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | On the more positive side, there were no signs that the pace of productivity gains was currently leveling out and no evidence of rising longer-term inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | that longer-term inflation expectations were likely to remain anchored, partly because modest changes in labor costs would constrain inflation trends | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | A second question is whether moving in this direction would matter much for the conduct of monetary policy in the United States. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Indeed, stock prices did not collapse in 1929 but only began to plummet when the depth of the general economic decline became apparent. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In terms of missing on inflation, policymakers' projections looked very much like most of the public's. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: "The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Members expected to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until those outcomes were achieved. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | For example, the evidence suggests that changes in the demographic composition of the labor force affect NAIRU and it is also likely that government programs, including unemployment compensation and welfare, also affect NAIRU. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | After a short coffee break, we have a staff presentation on the alternatives we face in setting monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Participants noted that the improved performance of investment suggested that the expansion was becoming more balanced, with strengthening business spending potentially offsetting some moderation in the growth of household spending from the elevated rates of recent years. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Such a directive would imply that any tightening should be implemented promptly if developments were perceived as pointing to rising inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | You know, what you hear out there is that demand—you talk to banks, and they’ll say demand for loans is very, very low right now. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | however, for the two months combined, the deficit was considerably wider than its average rate for the second quarter. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | While each of the Asian economies is unique in many important respects, the sources of their spectacular growth in recent years, in some cases decades, and the problems that have emerged are relevant to a greater or lesser extent to nearly all of them. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | But we are also searching for an absolute concept, the point of balance between supply and demand in the respective markets that divides excess demand from excess supply--in effect, the origin in a diagram relating inflation to excess demand and supply. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In the days immediately following the Brexit vote, asset prices were volatile, and some financial markets, particularly certain foreign exchange markets, experienced brief periods of strained liquidity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | An important element in interpreting financial market prices is the identification of the risk premiums they contain. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | After precipitous drops in March and April, employment rose strongly in May and June as many people returned to work from temporary layoffs. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In their discussion of forward guidance about the target federal funds rate, a few members suggested that lowering the unemployment threshold to 6 percent could effectively convey the Committee's intention to keep the target federal funds rate low for an extended period. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Higher interest rates are working to temper demand and bring it into better alignment with supply, which is still constrained. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Many have observed the rise in the real federal funds rate to a level well above its historical average and concluded that monetary policy is currently restrictive. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Growth in household spending moderated toward the end of last year, | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | A key purpose of our review has been to take stock of the lessons learned over this period and identify any further changes in our monetary policy framework that could enhance our ability to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability objectives in the years ahead.9 Our evolving understanding of four key economic developments motivated our review. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had changed little on balance. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Financial conditions affecting emerging market economies continued to improve for a time after the Committee eased monetary policy at its November 17 meeting, but that trend was subsequently reversed after Brazil's legislature decided to reject a key fiscal reform measure. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
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