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My general point is that inflation is much too high, and the outlook for inflation remains significantly uncertain. | 2,021 | 1 |
Perhaps because those asset prices are important to spending, key macroeconomic indicators, such as the unemployment rate, exhibit a similar pattern. | 2,007 | 2 |
When the government runs deficits, it siphons off private savings (reducing national saving), leaving less available for capital investment. | 1,999 | 0 |
Monetary Policy Spillovers Flow in Both Directions There is a vast literature that documents the existence of international spillovers from U.S. monetary policy, especially to emerging markets (EMs). | 2,021 | 2 |
Such a jump could raise core inflation temporarily if it is passed through to other prices or if it contributes to increasing inflation expectations. | 2,004 | 1 |
The logic goes as follows: Easier monetary policy, for example, raises stock prices. | 2,005 | 2 |
Although in a number of sectors of the economy the imbalances between demand and supply—including labor supply—are substantial, I do continue to judge that these imbalances are likely to dissipate over time as the labor market and global supply chains eventually adjust and, importantly, do so without putting persistent upward pressure on price inflation and wage gains adjusted for productivity. | 2,006 | 2 |
In 2019, sluggish growth abroad and global developments weighed on investment, exports, and manufacturing in the United States, although there are some indications that headwinds to global growth may be beginning to abate. | 2,022 | 0 |
Accordingly, in the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, the Committee decided that a slightly higher federal funds rate might be acceptable or a somewhat lower federal funds rate would be acceptable during the intermeeting period. | 2,022 | 2 |
several others thought that progress in achieving the Committee's inflation objective might lag if further appreciation of the dollar continued to depress non-energy commodity prices or if inflation was slow to respond to tighter resource utilization. | 2,017 | 2 |
In addition, the Survey of Terms of Business Lending conducted in the first week of November showed that interest rates on C&I loans were generally little changed while spreads remained extremely wide. | 2,017 | 1 |
On the upside, bottlenecks, supply disruptions, and historically high rates of resource utilization were seen as potential sources of greater-than-expected inflationary pressures, particularly if there were a significant rise in inflation expectations that altered inflation dynamics. | 1,998 | 1 |
in contrast, however, overall business investment in equipment and software was projected to strengthen in response to the upward trend in replacement demand, especially for computers and software | 2,015 | 2 |
overall consumer prices had been pushed up recently by sharp rises in energy prices. | 2,000 | 1 |
Although a spike in energy prices eroded real income growth in the second quarter, there were solid gains in wages and salaries. | 2,001 | 1 |
Rather, members agreed that inflation was likely to moderate in coming quarters, | 2,005 | 1 |
Participants generally interpreted the information that became available during the intermeeting period as suggesting that economic growth would most likely remain moderate over coming quarters and then pick up very gradually. | 2,011 | 2 |
some market-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation risk suggested continuing concern among market participants about the risk of higher medium-term inflation, perhaps reflecting large fiscal deficits and the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. | 1,999 | 1 |
they rebounded late in the period in response to the release of firmer economic data and growing concerns regarding the sustainability of current domestic asset prices. | 2,016 | 0 |
The latter could well be augmented by sharply rising medical costs and by attempts to protect the purchasing power of wages from the erosion caused by the rise in energy prices. | 2,010 | 1 |
However, in light of the projected persistence of slack in labor and product markets and the anticipated stability in long-term inflation expectations, the increase in inflation was expected to be mostly transitory if oil and other commodity prices did not rise significantly further. | 2,014 | 2 |
Still, core consumer price indices remained relatively damped and had risen only a little over the last year, especially when measured by the PCE chain-price index, and that suggested underlying price pressures remained largely contained. | 2,001 | 2 |
Employment continued to expand unevenly, | 2,005 | 2 |
In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants reaffirmed that the Federal Reserve was committed to using its full range of tools to support the U. S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum-employment and price-stability goals. | 2,014 | 0 |
The staff expected the 12-month change in PCE prices to gradually move down in coming months, reflecting, importantly, the fading of base effects along with smaller expected monthly price increases, | 1,998 | 2 |
Continued gains in employment and income, high household net worth, and low gasoline prices were viewed as factors that should support consumer spending in coming months. | 2,014 | 1 |
market-based measures of inflation compensation over the next five years, as well as over the five-year period beginning five years ahead, moved down further over the intermeeting period. | 2,000 | 2 |
In addition, some policymakers observed that the timing and magnitude of future policy adjustments would ultimately be determined by the Committee's interpretation of the incoming data on the economy and prices rather than by its current expectation of those developments. | 2,015 | 2 |
the effect of prior changes in the foreign exchange value of the dollar on core consumer prices had apparently been limited. | 2,011 | 2 |
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. | 1,998 | 0 |
year-over-year consumer inflation remained at a very low level. | 2,012 | 0 |
After falling steeply before the August FOMC meeting, emerging market equity prices were little changed, on net, over the period. | 2,015 | 2 |
Employment had risen a little, | 2,005 | 0 |
One participant suggested that the Committee could announce an additional, lower set of thresholds for inflation and unemployment | 1,999 | 2 |
Members referred, however, to a number of favorable factors that should continue to support at least moderate further growth in business investment, including the attractive pricing of and ongoing rapid technological improvements in computer and communications equipment and the wide availability of equity and debt financing on favorable terms to business firms. | 1,997 | 2 |
Moreover, many members saw some risk that an easing move at this point might trigger a strong further advance in stock market prices that would not be justified on the basis of likely future earnings and could therefore lead to a relatively sharp and disruptive market adjustment later. | 2,019 | 2 |
With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, participants expected inflation to return to the Committee's 2 percent objective over time and the labor market to remain strong. | 2,020 | 1 |
However, some others emphasized that deferring the decision until later in the year would permit additional time to assess the outlook for economic activity and inflation. | 2,008 | 2 |
The contemplated reserve conditions are expected to be consistent with considerable moderation in the growth in M2 and M3 over coming months. | 2,018 | 2 |
In their assessment of factors leading to this decision, the members focused on the further evidence that moderating demand and accelerating productivity were closing the gap between the growth of aggregate demand and potential supply, even before earlier Committee tightening actions had exerted their full restraining effects. | 2,014 | 1 |
The staff interpreted the increases in prices of energy and nonmarket services that recently boosted consumer price inflation as largely transitory. | 2,019 | 2 |
most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months. | 2,013 | 2 |
The median expectation for inflation over the next 5 to 10 years from the Michigan survey edged down in October to a new historical low, | 2,010 | 0 |
The vote also encompassed approval of the sentence below for inclusion in the press statement to be released shortly after the meeting: Against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the Committee believes that the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future. | 2,012 | 1 |
Participants generally expected that, over the medium term, real economic activity would increase at a pace sufficient to lead to a further gradual decline in the unemployment rate toward levels consistent with the Committee's objective of maximum employment. | 2,011 | 1 |
The vote encompassed approval of the statement below to be released at 2:00 p. m. : "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions. | 2,001 | 2 |
Market sentiment toward the syndicated leveraged loan market also improved, with the average bid price increasing noticeably and bid-asked spreads narrowing a bit further. | 2,002 | 2 |
The expansion in economic activity was anticipated to slowly reduce the slack in labor and product markets over the projection period, and progress in reducing the unemployment rate was expected to be gradual. | 2,009 | 0 |
The staff's near-term forecast for inflation was revised up a little, as recent data showed somewhat faster-than-anticipated increases that were judged to be only partly transitory. | 2,005 | 1 |
Moreover, it was difficult to anticipate how much the higher food and energy prices might affect inflation expectations and wage demands and thereby potentially become embedded more generally in the price structure. | 2,019 | 1 |
Financial conditions affecting emerging market economies continued to improve for a time after the Committee eased monetary policy at its November 17 meeting, but that trend was subsequently reversed after Brazil's legislature decided to reject a key fiscal reform measure. | 2,014 | 0 |
Housing activity showed signs of dropping off from peak levels during the latter part of the summer, but the decline in mortgage rates this fall produced an upturn in several indicators of demand for single-family housing, including a rebound in a survey index of homebuying conditions. | 2,020 | 2 |
Nonetheless, the risks to the forecast for real GDP growth were viewed as tilted a little to the downside, especially because the economy was not well positioned to withstand adverse shocks while the target for the federal funds rate was at its effective lower bound. | 1,996 | 0 |
The Committee directs the Desk to purchase agency debt, agency MBS, and longer-term Treasury securities during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity. | 2,001 | 0 |
Advances in productivity had boosted profit margins, and high margins were helpful in that they could absorb some portion of any cost increases for a time. | 2,015 | 2 |
Market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low | 2,013 | 0 |
In addition, increases in oil prices were expected to pass through to consumer energy prices. | 2,015 | 1 |
The staff still expected that the pace of economic activity through 2011 would be sufficient to reduce the existing margins of economic slack, | 1,997 | 2 |
forecasts of more moderate growth in aggregate demand at a pace around potential output had substantially reduced the odds on rising inflation, the risks still were pointed in that direction on balance. | 2,014 | 2 |
They also noted that even with this additional firming the risks were still weighted mainly in the direction of rising inflationary pressures. | 2,017 | 1 |
These rates of growth were associated with ranges for the civilian rate of unemployment of 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004 and 5 to 5-1/2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005. | 2,007 | 2 |
Inflation had increased somewhat since earlier this year | 2,016 | 1 |
As a result, growth of spending on consumer durables was expected to be appreciably below the rapid pace in the first half of last year, and housing demand would increase only a little from its recent level. | 2,015 | 2 |
M2 and M3 have posted very large gains in recent months, reflecting the effects of recent System easing actions on market interest rates and shifts of funds by households out of investments in equities and lower-rated corporate debt. | 2,008 | 0 |
The steepening of the yield curve was due mostly to sharply lower short- and intermediate-term forward rates, consistent with investors' apparently more pessimistic outlook for economic growth. | 2,005 | 0 |
inflation was projected to pick up gradually in association with a partial reversal of the decline in energy prices this year. | 1,996 | 2 |
subsequently moved up against the backdrop of an improving global growth outlook, higher commodity prices, depreciation of the dollar, and the stronger-than-expected reading on core inflation in the December CPI release. | 2,006 | 1 |
By 2009, the forecasts for both the headline and core PCE price indexes showed inflation receding from its 2008 level, in line with the previous forecasts. | 2,022 | 2 |
in particular, core PCE price inflation had been quite stable on a twelve-month basis for some time. | 2,011 | 0 |
as before, core inflation was projected to be quite subdued at rates below last year's pace. | 2,008 | 2 |
In light of these uncertainties as well as continued evidence of muted inflation pressures, participants generally agreed that a patient approach to determining future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate remained appropriate. | 2,003 | 2 |
More information might provide a better sense of how the higher interest rates were affecting aggregate demand and perhaps also help--to a small degree--to shed light on the considerable uncertainties surrounding the relationship of output to inflation. | 2,018 | 1 |
However, those concerns generally were seen as outweighed by the benefit of avoiding tying the Committee's decision too closely to the unemployment rate alone, | 2,008 | 2 |
Nearly all measures of total and core prices had decelerated over the past year, and in the context of forecasts implying a continued sizable gap between actual and potential output, the risk that inflationary pressures would intensify significantly over coming quarters appeared to be quite limited | 2,006 | 0 |
Moreover, substantial gains in productivity were muting the effects of rising labor compensation on unit costs, and vigorous competition in numerous markets was continuing to make it very difficult or impossible for business firms to raise their prices to cover rising costs or enhance profit margins. | 2,011 | 1 |
Core price inflation was projected to rise a little over the forecast horizon, in part as a result of higher import prices | 2,000 | 1 |
largely as a consequence of further increases in nominal labor compensation gains that would not be fully offset by growth in productivity. | 2,000 | 0 |
The increase over the last few months in five-year measures of inflation compensation derived from Treasury nominal and inflation-indexed securities might be a warning sign that expectations were not as well anchored as they had been over the summer. | 2,000 | 1 |
those risks appeared to be quite limited for the nearer term, excessive monetary stimulus had to be avoided to avert rising inflation expectations and added inflation pressures over time. | 2,010 | 1 |
remained well below their levels at the beginning of the year, and that weaker demand and earlier declines in oil prices had been holding down consumer price inflation. | 1,996 | 1 |
Many indicated that they expected cyclical pressures associated with a tightening labor market to show through to higher inflation over the medium term. | 2,013 | 1 |
Developments in foreign trade were moderating demands on domestic resources | 2,016 | 0 |
In their review of developments in key sectors of the economy, members again emphasized the ongoing strength in household spending and its vital role in moderating the weakness in overall economic activity. | 2,020 | 2 |
While participants generally felt that the pace of underlying productivity growth remained robust, careful attention would need to be paid to developments regarding unit labor costs and profit margins. | 2,004 | 2 |
Some participants noted that additional asset purchases could be used to provide more accommodation by lowering longer-term interest rates. | 2,009 | 0 |
Many expected those conditions to be met later this year, although several members were concerned about downside risks to the outlook for real activity and inflation. | 2,017 | 0 |
At the same time, the staff viewed the risks around its outlook for the unemployment rate as roughly balanced. | 2,021 | 2 |
Against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the Committee believes that the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future. | 2,015 | 0 |
moreover, slow growth left the recovery more vulnerable to negative shocks. | 1,996 | 0 |
Some participants suggested that the persistently high level of unemployment reflected the impact of structural factors, including mismatches between the skills of the unemployed and the skills demanded in sectors in which jobs were currently available. | 2,017 | 2 |
They remarked that a stronger dollar, weaker demand, and lower oil prices were factors likely to put downward pressure on inflation in the period ahead and observed that this meant that the return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective would likely be further delayed. | 2,015 | 0 |
But the members generally were concerned that inflation might begin to rise over the intermediate term, especially if labor markets tightened further. | 2,000 | 1 |
At the same time, business firms generally were not raising their prices sufficiently to compensate for faster increases in their labor costs, to the extent that the latter were occurring, evidently because of the persistence of intense competition in most markets. | 2,021 | 1 |
Survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months, | 2,000 | 2 |
Recent data on consumer prices and unit labor costs led the staff to revise down slightly its projection for core PCE price inflation for 2010 and 2011 | 2,008 | 2 |
and that given the downside risks to economic growth, an early exit could unnecessarily damp the ongoing economic recovery. | 2,008 | 0 |
Retail energy prices were likely to retrace at least a portion of the post-hurricane increase, and consumer confidence should rebound. | 2,010 | 2 |
The federal funds rate averaged a little higher than the level expected with an unchanged policy stance, in part because of unexpectedly high demand for reserves in late July and early August. | 2,007 | 1 |
With regard to the outlook for inflation, members gave considerable attention to the somewhat faster increases in broad price measures over the past year, | 2,015 | 1 |
In any case, however, the assessment of the adverse effects of the increase in longer-term rates on financial conditions and ultimately on economic activity would depend importantly upon the extent to which rates stabilized at current levels or instead continued to rise. | 2,017 | 2 |
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