sentence stringlengths 13 1.25k | year int64 2k 2.02k | label int64 0 2 |
|---|---|---|
In furtherance of these objectives, the Committee reaffirmed at its meeting in June the ranges it had established in February for growth of M2 and M3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 1999. | 2,017 | 2 |
He was concerned that the flattening yield curve was partly due to falling longer-term inflation expectations or a lower neutral real rate of interest. | 2,019 | 0 |
Members commented that the continued strong increases in energy and other commodity prices would prompt a difficult adjustment process involving both lower growth and higher rates of inflation in the near term. | 2,009 | 2 |
Inflation had been subdued of late, | 2,004 | 0 |
Some uncertainties, such as those associated with the election, had been resolved, but others persisted, including the prospects for oil prices and their consequences for the economy. | 2,012 | 2 |
continued to anticipate a moderate strengthening of the expansion in 2011 as well as a further pickup in economic growth in 2012. | 2,000 | 2 |
Going forward, consumer outlays were expected to be supported by further advances in employment and income. | 2,010 | 1 |
core CPI inflation remained low. | 2,006 | 1 |
At the conclusion of this discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: The information reviewed at this meeting suggests that the expansion in economic activity is still robust. | 1,999 | 2 |
In their assessment of the outlook for inflation, members agreed that | 2,014 | 2 |
they noted that inflation had been persistently below 2 percent during the current economic expansion and that core inflation on a 12-month basis was little changed in recent months at a level below 2 percent. | 2,010 | 0 |
In addition, the forecast for headline PCE price inflation incorporated a much higher rate of increase for energy prices for the first half of the year | 2,017 | 1 |
Consumer price inflation, as measured by the 12-month percentage change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), was below 2 percent in July. | 2,012 | 0 |
Several mentioned that the revisions to the NIPA pointed to a modest downward adjustment in projected growth of actual and potential GDP, | 2,010 | 0 |
However, growth of mortgage loans on banks' books slowed somewhat in the first half of this year. | 2,007 | 0 |
Looking ahead, however, members reiterated earlier concerns that aggregate demand could continue to grow faster than potential aggregate supply, even under optimistic assumptions regarding future productivity gains. | 2,019 | 1 |
While recognizing the improvement in a number of indicators of economic activity and labor market conditions since the fall, many members indicated that further improvement in the outlook for the labor market would be required before it would be appropriate to slow the pace of asset purchases. | 2,004 | 0 |
labor productivity remained on a strong upward trend. | 2,005 | 0 |
Much of the current spending for equipment and software reportedly represented replacement demand largely associated with the short useful lives of various types of equipment, and there appeared to be little spending that would entail capital deepening. | 2,006 | 2 |
At longer maturities, yields drifted lower over most of the intermeeting period in response to incoming data that suggested economic growth would remain moderate and inflation subdued, | 2,016 | 0 |
Survey measures of expected future inflation were fairly stable, | 1,999 | 2 |
One participant remarked that, with inflation having run consistently below 2 percent in recent years and market-based measures of inflation compensation still low, postponing an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would help push inflation expectations up to levels consistent with the Committee's objective. | 1,999 | 0 |
For a variety of reasons, oil prices already had risen appreciably since the start of the year. | 2,007 | 1 |
households’ and professional forecasters’ longer-term inflation expectations edged lower. | 2,000 | 2 |
A variety of indicators, along with anecdotal reports, suggested that employment was expanding at a fairly good pace and labor compensation was rising moderately. | 2,003 | 1 |
Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed, on balance. | 2,014 | 2 |
In December, the consumer price index (CPI) rose somewhat faster than in recent months, primarily reflecting an upturn in consumer energy prices | 2,006 | 1 |
Significant cost cutting by firms was thought to have led to a sizable increase in productivity growth in the first half of the year | 2,003 | 0 |
they also concurred that it would be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully. | 2,005 | 2 |
Some price increases had been noted | 2,017 | 1 |
On the one hand, an inverted yield curve could indicate an increased risk of recession; on the other hand, the low level of term premiums in recent years--reflecting, in part, central bank asset purchases--could temper the reliability of the slope of the yield curve as an indicator of future economic activity. | 2,001 | 0 |
Several participants reported feedback from business contacts who were delaying hiring until the economic and regulatory outlook became more certain and who indicated that they expected to meet any near-term increase in the demand for their products without boosting employment | 2,014 | 2 |
Survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations remained stable, | 2,000 | 2 |
Broad equity price indexes fell sharply over the intermeeting period on net. | 2,011 | 2 |
Business contacts in a few Districts reported that they had begun to have some more ability to raise prices to cover higher input costs. | 1,999 | 1 |
In Japan, consumer prices were about unchanged, | 2,006 | 2 |
thought that potential output growth was likely to be a bit higher than forecast by the staff. | 2,010 | 2 |
While a number of members saw some slight further disinflation as the most plausible outcome, no one expected a material change in inflation. | 2,017 | 2 |
Recent data suggested that growth of household spending had moderated from its strong fourth-quarter pace, while business fixed investment continued to grow strongly. | 2,008 | 2 |
Those factors included the increasing spread of the coronavirus in the United States since mid-June; the reactions of many states and localities in slowing or scaling back the reopening of their economies, especially for businesses, such as restaurants and bars, providing services that entail personal interactions; and some high-frequency indicators that pointed to a deceleration in economic activity. | 2,000 | 0 |
several expected that declines in the foreign exchange value of the dollar in recent months would also likely help return inflation to 2 percent over the medium term. | 2,003 | 1 |
as a result, headline PCE price inflation was expected to substantially exceed core PCE price inflation in 2008. | 2,017 | 2 |
The explanations included a decline in inflation risk premiums, possibly reflecting a lower perceived probability of higher inflation outcomes | 2,009 | 2 |
Although some members noted that a case could be made that the risks to inflation were now somewhat skewed to the upside and those to sustainable economic growth perhaps to the downside, the most likely outcome remained one of stable prices and sustainable growth, and the Committee agreed that it should retain a balanced assessment of risks conditional on appropriate policy. | 2,015 | 2 |
In these circumstances, inflation pressures could be expected to remain subdued and some further disinflation might well occur. | 2,022 | 0 |
The members recognized that a typical recovery-period surge in consumer spending was unlikely inasmuch as expenditures had registered solid growth through the economic downturn, implying an absence of significant pent-up demands. | 2,012 | 0 |
survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed. | 2,013 | 2 |
Participants pointed to potential interactions between financial stresses and the housing market contraction as the primary source of continuing downside risks to growth. | 1,997 | 0 |
Job growth last month was fairly widespread, although heavy hiring in the construction sector was due partly to efforts to repair damage from the four hurricanes that hit the southeastern states. | 2,005 | 2 |
and special factors, including liquidity risk premiums, that might be influencing the pricing of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and inflation derivatives. | 2,009 | 2 |
core measures of consumer prices showed mixed changes on a twelve-month basis. | 2,020 | 2 |
however, for the two months combined, the deficit was considerably wider than its average rate for the second quarter. | 2,016 | 2 |
indeed, inflation might edge a bit lower in the early stages of the expansion. | 2,006 | 0 |
Another factor viewed as likely to exert a moderating effect on the growth of economic activity was the expectation of some slowing in inventory investment. | 2,002 | 2 |
In general, participants viewed recent consumer price developments as consistent with their expectation that inflation was on a trajectory to achieve the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective on a sustained basis. | 1,999 | 2 |
In particular, incoming data and anecdotal information indicated that economic activity had appreciably more forward momentum than previously perceived and that inflation pressures could be intensifying. | 2,003 | 1 |
The U. S. trade deficit in goods and services widened substantially in January and February from its fourth-quarter average, with exports falling sharply and imports rising strongly. | 2,010 | 1 |
Moreover, not all measures of core inflation had accelerated | 2,011 | 2 |
On balance, in light of the uncertainties in the outlook and given that a variety of special factors would continue to contain inflation for a time, the Committee could await further developments bearing on the strength of inflationary pressures without incurring a significant risk that disruptive policy actions would be needed later in response to an upturn in inflation and inflation expectations. | 2,005 | 2 |
A few observed that the combination of recent labor market improvements and continued softness in inflation had led them to lower their estimates of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment. | 1,996 | 2 |
House price appreciation appeared to have slowed from the elevated rates seen over the past summer. | 2,001 | 2 |
The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability. " | 2,009 | 1 |
The effect of higher energy prices on real incomes was likely still restraining consumer spending. | 2,011 | 2 |
The recent rebound in oil prices contributed to a strong appreciation of the Canadian dollar, the Brazilian real, and the Mexican peso. | 2,019 | 1 |
The threat to global economic growth and financial stability posed by the fiscal situation in some European nations sparked widespread flight-to-quality flows over most of the intermeeting period. | 2,005 | 2 |
Surveys indicated that households’ expectations of inflation over the next year were little changed in February while households’ and professional forecasters’ longer-term inflation expectations edged lower. | 2,000 | 2 |
Two noted the possibility that sustained high levels of long-term unemployment could result in higher structural unemployment, an outcome that might be forestalled by increased aggregate demand. | 2,015 | 0 |
In December 1996, before my time at the Board, John Campbell of Harvard and Robert Shiller of Yale made a presentation at the Fed, in which they used dividend-price ratios and related measures to argue that the stock market was overvalued. | 2,020 | 2 |
However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases. | 1,998 | 2 |
In its accompanying statement, the Committee indicated that, despite elevated energy prices and hurricane-related disruptions, the expansion in economic activity appeared solid. | 1,999 | 1 |
Such a directive would imply that any tightening should be implemented promptly if developments were perceived as pointing to rising inflation. | 1,999 | 1 |
Current Economic Situation and Outlook While the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has taken a tragic human toll measured in terms of lives lost and suffering inflicted, as a direct result of the necessary public health policies put in place to mitigate and control the spread of the virus, the pandemic has also inflicted a heavy toll on the levels of activity and employment in the U.S. economy. | 2,020 | 0 |
Fast growth of productivity, by buoying expectations of future advances of wages and earnings and thus aggregate demand, enables real interest rates to be higher than would otherwise be the case without restricting economic growth. | 2,006 | 1 |
Although personally I have no doubt that quantification of the price stability objective is fully consistent with the current dual mandate, I also appreciate the delicate issues of communication raised by such a change. | 2,004 | 1 |
A key factor in this assessment continued to be their outlook for rapid further gains in structural productivity that would help to hold down increases in unit labor costs. | 2,014 | 2 |
Rather than rely on Fed watchers employed by primary dealers to read the tea leaves of our daily interventions, we inform everyone, openly, and take responsibility for the level of short-term interest rates. | 2,005 | 2 |
The pace of job gains slowed and the unemployment rate held steady. | 2,013 | 2 |
Members agreed that the Federal Reserve was committed to using its full range of tools to support the U. S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum-employment and price-stability goals. | 2,003 | 2 |
First, there is a tug of war between the continued exceptional momentum in private domestic demand and the external drag from the Asian crisis. | 1,999 | 2 |
November 08, 2021 Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Prospects for U.S. Monetary Policy Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the Symposium on Monetary Policy Frameworks, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share Watch Live Outlooks and Outcomes for the U.S. Economy The U.S. economy in the second quarter of this year made the transition from economic recovery to economic expansion.1 Given the catastrophic collapse in U.S. economic activity in the first half of 2020 as a result of the global pandemic and the mitigation efforts put in place to contain it, few forecasters could have expected—or even dared to hope—in the spring of last year that the recovery in gross domestic product (GDP), from the sharpest decline in activity since the Great Depression, would be either so robust or as rapid. | 2,005 | 0 |
The staff continued to project that the accommodative stance of monetary policy, together with a further attenuation of financial stress, the waning of adverse effects of earlier declines in wealth, and improving household and business confidence, would support a moderate recovery in economic activity and a gradual decline in the unemployment rate over the next two years. | 1,998 | 0 |
In addition, the forecast for headline PCE price inflation incorporated a much higher rate of increase for energy prices for the first half of the year; as a result, headline PCE price inflation was expected to substantially exceed core PCE price inflation in 2008. | 2,017 | 1 |
In the United Kingdom, however, gilt yields declined and the pound weakened against the dollar in response to weaker-than-expected inflation data and to an upward revision by the Bank of England, at its early February policy meeting, of its assessment of the degree of slack in the labor market. | 2,022 | 0 |
Some participants believed that considerable labor market slack remained, especially when indicators other than the unemployment rate were taken into account, including the unusually large fraction of the labor force working part time for economic reasons. | 2,006 | 0 |
To the extent that these producers are foreign, there should be a corresponding drop in domestic demand. | 2,007 | 0 |
Progress at Home and Abroad Over the past several quarters, we have seen improvement in inflation and activity both at home and abroad following a period when the drag on domestic activity from abroad was considerable. | 2,001 | 2 |
Market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had changed little on balance. | 2,013 | 0 |
In that regard, the prospective strength of demand pressures and related outlook for productivity were subject to a wide range of uncertainty, and there were reasons to believe that economic growth could well slow without any adjustment to policy. | 1,997 | 0 |
However, I can provide you with some insight into the way the FOMC functions and the impact of monetary policy on the U.S. and global economies. | 2,007 | 2 |
For example, wages and prices that are set for some period in the future will of necessity embody the inflation expectations of the parties to the negotiation; increases in expected inflation will thus tend to promote greater actual inflation. | 2,004 | 1 |
The Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates and the Role of Monetary Policy One of the most remarkable and fundamental changes in the global financial landscape over the past three decades has been the steady and significant decline in global sovereign bond yields. | 2,003 | 0 |
Survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations remained stable, although market-based measures of inflation compensation over the next five years, as well as over the five-year period beginning five years ahead, moved down further over the intermeeting period. | 2,000 | 0 |
As a result, recent high inflation readings are transitory and not broad based. | 2,004 | 1 |
That should gradually return the economy to full utilization of its resources, while inflation remains subdued. | 2,007 | 0 |
However, some participants indicated that underlying inflation remained subdued; that longer-term inflation expectations were likely to remain anchored, partly because modest changes in labor costs would constrain inflation trends; and that given the downside risks to economic growth, an early exit could unnecessarily damp the ongoing economic recovery. | 2,008 | 0 |
By fostering increased interactions among central banks, academics, and the public in many different countries, globalization has helped spread a common culture that stresses the benefits of achieving price stability. | 2,013 | 1 |
U.S. inflation remains muted. | 2,000 | 0 |
In Latin America, indicators suggested that economic activity in Mexico and Brazil expanded further in the first quarter. | 2,015 | 2 |
Thus, I believe this description essentially characterizes the current macroeconomic environment, and my own projection of inflation at a three-year horizon is equal to my assessment of the mandate-consistent inflation rate. | 2,003 | 2 |
The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. | 2,004 | 2 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.