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participants generally expected no more than moderate growth in consumer spending over the near term. | 2,007 | 2 |
sustained outsized gains in productivity could further damp hiring. | 2,003 | 0 |
The underlying rate of consumer price inflation in recent months was lower than the staff expected at the time of the November meeting, and the staff forecast anticipated that core PCE prices would rise a bit more slowly in 2011 and 2012 than previously projected. | 2,003 | 0 |
Nonfarm payroll employment rose substantially further in October. | 2,010 | 1 |
All members agreed that the risks to achieving the anticipated reduction in inflation remained of greatest concern. | 1,997 | 1 |
With energy prices having turned down, overall consumer price inflation had eased slightly in recent months, | 2,020 | 2 |
With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. | 1,999 | 2 |
The upswing in M2 growth since late winter stemmed in part from the temporary effects of mortgage refinancing, which boosted liquid deposits over this period, though M2 was also buoyed by strong gains in nominal income. | 2,012 | 0 |
They also agreed that the war and related events were creating additional upward pressure on inflation and were weighing on global economic activity. | 2,017 | 1 |
With crude oil prices expected to gradually decline from their current levels, the boost to retail food prices from the drought anticipated to be only temporary and comparatively small, long-run inflation expectations assumed to remain stable, and substantial resource slack persisting over the projection period, the staff continued to forecast that inflation would be subdued through 2014. | 2,020 | 2 |
The staff forecast prepared for this meeting suggested that economic activity likely would start to turn up early in 2002 as inventory liquidation tapered off, and would gather strength only gradually. | 2,019 | 2 |
A number of participants indicated that the Committee should resume asset purchases only if substantially adverse economic circumstances warranted greater monetary policy accommodation than could be provided by lowering the federal funds rate to the effective lower bound. | 2,014 | 0 |
However, core inflation had been subdued in recent months and longer-run inflation expectations remained contained. | 1,998 | 0 |
that longer-term inflation expectations were likely to remain anchored, partly because modest changes in labor costs would constrain inflation trends | 2,008 | 2 |
It was suggested that the weakening expansion of expenditures in these capital goods might reflect a surfeit in capacity following a period of extraordinary growth in many industries--for example, those related to fiber optics. | 2,021 | 2 |
Many noted that the slowdown could be a temporary aberration and that other labor market indicators--such as new claims for unemployment insurance, the rate of job openings, and readings on consumers' perceptions of the labor market--remained positive. | 2,013 | 2 |
Although real growth was likely to be moderate in coming quarters, in his view it was unlikely to be slow enough to bring core inflation down. | 2,000 | 1 |
Broad stock price indexes rose, on net, over the intermeeting period, boosted in part by favorable earnings reports from the retail sector. | 1,999 | 2 |
A few participants argued that maintaining a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy over the medium run would erode the stability of inflation expectations. | 1,996 | 1 |
it was noted that this drop could be explained by a reduction in the number of respondents who had previously expected relatively high inflation outcomes. | 2,010 | 2 |
payroll employment posted solid gains, and, on balance, a range of labor market indicators suggested that underutilization of labor resources diminished somewhat. | 2,012 | 1 |
In this regard the risks of rising inflation could not be dismissed, and | 2,010 | 1 |
the recent increase in crude oil and gasoline prices would push up inflation temporarily. | 2,004 | 1 |
Some saw a risk that inflationary pressures might develop more rapidly than currently anticipated as resource utilization tightened, | 2,017 | 1 |
Without a reduction of aggregate demand growth, inflation would rise. | 2,013 | 1 |
The July-August deficit in U. S. trade in goods and services was higher than its average in the second quarter, as further growth in imports exceeded the rise in exports. | 2,002 | 1 |
Subsequently, investors revised down the expected policy path after the June employment report and the Chairman's semiannual monetary policy testimony. | 2,002 | 0 |
In contrast to price inflation, labor costs appeared to have remained quiescent. | 2,018 | 2 |
Instead, an upturn in foreign economic activity would depend more on recovery in the United States. | 2,020 | 2 |
Members noted that most broad measures of inflation moved together over extended periods of time, but they did not always do so over short intervals. | 1,997 | 2 |
The labor force participation rate, along with the employment-to-population ratio, increased, on net, in recent months. | 2,008 | 1 |
Consumer sentiment was at or close to historically high levels according to recent surveys, evidently reflecting the strong uptrend in employment and income and to some extent the very large cumulative increase in stock market wealth over the course of recent years. | 2,014 | 1 |
Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months. | 2,020 | 2 |
As a result, growth of spending on consumer durables and houses was expected to slow | 2,015 | 1 |
With regard to the nation as a whole, members noted that rising levels of employment and incomes were continuing to foster solid growth in consumer spending, a development that was abetted by the sharp increases that had occurred in household wealth as a consequence of the extended uptrend in stock market prices and to a lesser extent the appreciation of home prices. | 2,015 | 1 |
Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. | 2,001 | 0 |
Participants commented that an increase in inflation from recent rates could have especially adverse effects on longer-run economic performance. | 2,003 | 1 |
Market-based measures of inflation compensation had remained low, | 2,020 | 0 |
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose solidly in July and August, with strong gains in private-sector jobs and declines in government employment. | 2,013 | 2 |
They noted that economic activity and employment had continued to recover | 1,996 | 2 |
Members agreed that they would continue to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments. | 1,998 | 2 |
Since the previous FOMC meeting, spreads on municipal bonds narrowed substantially, on net, moving near levels observed for several years before the pandemic, as investor demand exhibited some recovery over much of the period from earlier weak levels. | 2,003 | 0 |
the anticipated decline in the unemployment rate was somewhat slower than in the previous projection. | 1,997 | 0 |
Also, in the view of a number of participants, the economy was possibly producing in the neighborhood of its potential, and the persistent strength in spending of late suggested that resource markets could tighten further and inflation pressures build. | 2,001 | 1 |
survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. | 2,020 | 2 |
the outlook for housing activity remained favorable, given an overall economic performance in line with current forecasts of a robust expansion, related growth in incomes, and still relatively attractive mortgage interest rates. | 1,997 | 1 |
The risks to the forecast for real GDP were seen as tilted to the downside, reflecting the staff's assessment that neither monetary nor fiscal policy was well positioned to help the economy withstand substantial adverse shocks; the downside risks to the forecast of economic activity were seen as more pronounced than in December, mainly reflecting the greater uncertainty about global economic prospects and the financial market turbulence in the United States and abroad. | 1,997 | 0 |
In the September Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Dealer Financing Terms (SCOOS), dealers indicated, on net, that they loosened credit terms applicable to several important classes of counterparties and types of collateral over the past three months amid increased demand for funding for most types of securities covered in the survey. | 2,022 | 2 |
The recent decline in the dollar was another factor that could add to inflation pressures, | 2,011 | 1 |
another indicated that the Committee could provide guidance stating that it would not raise its target for the federal funds rate if the inflation rate was expected to run below a given level at a specific horizon. | 1,999 | 0 |
Those participants saw substantial slack in resource utilization and hence continued to judge that inflation was likely to remain subdued over the medium term as the economy continued to recover. | 2,000 | 0 |
However, some participants noted that the recent rise in the prices of oil and other commodities, as well as increases in import prices stemming from the decline in the foreign exchange value of the dollar, could boost inflation pressures. | 2,008 | 1 |
PCE price inflation was forecast to still be well above 2 percent at the end of this year. | 1,998 | 0 |
The unemployment rate was likely to remain low going forward, and various participants remarked that there were some indications that further strengthening in overall labor market conditions was possible without creating undesirable pressures on resources. | 2,003 | 2 |
The lagged effects of the earlier rise in the foreign exchange value of the dollar were expected to place continuing, though diminishing, restraint on the demand for U. S. exports for some period ahead and to lead to further substitution of imports for domestic products. | 2,008 | 0 |
the prices of some key commodities had increased recently. | 2,016 | 1 |
Participants anticipated that inflation would continue to gradually rise as resource utilization tightened further and as wage pressures became more apparent | 2,003 | 1 |
Money growth was damped by a rise in the opportunity cost of holding M2 assets (as typically occurs in periods of policy tightening). | 1,997 | 1 |
Notwithstanding these developments, some participants cautioned that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective should not be overstated | 2,010 | 2 |
Inflation had been subdued, | 2,016 | 0 |
with domestic spending strong, members were becoming more concerned that those developments might not exert enough restraint on aggregate demand to slow the expansion to a sustainable pace in line with the growth of the economy's potential. | 2,016 | 0 |
While the underlying demand for residential housing continued to be robust and government outlays evidently were rising, the expansion of consumer spending seemed to have slowed, and outlays for capital spending were still very sluggish in an environment of business uncertainty and pessimism. | 2,006 | 0 |
market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low. | 2,000 | 0 |
labor productivity remained on a strong upward trend. | 2,014 | 0 |
The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate. | 2,016 | 2 |
The staff also reduced slightly its forecast of growth next year | 2,000 | 0 |
After robust growth in the second quarter, M2 decelerated somewhat and M3 was about unchanged in July. | 2,015 | 1 |
Although growth in output and employment slowed during the first quarter, the Committee continues to expect that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. | 2,001 | 0 |
Members again mentioned concerns on the part of business contacts regarding the adverse economic implications of very large deficits for the economy over the longer term. | 2,003 | 0 |
However, household spending had been relatively robust during the cyclical downturn and likely had only limited room for a pickup over coming quarters, and intense competitive pressures could well constrain profits, investment, and equity prices. | 2,007 | 2 |
Real GDP growth was expected to step down in 2022 and 2023 | 2,008 | 0 |
Several other participants, however, noted that increases in excess reserves or the monetary base, by themselves, might not have a significant stimulative effect on the economy or prices because the normal bank intermediation mechanism appeared to be impaired, and banks may not be willing to lend their excess reserves. | 2,010 | 2 |
Nonetheless, the members also noted that the rise in compensation increases had been damped and that there continued to be few indications of accelerating price inflation in the statistical and anecdotal information available at this time | 2,021 | 2 |
Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low | 2,020 | 0 |
wholesale prices edged up in March relative to their level of a year earlier and posted the first increase on a twelve-month basis since July 2000. | 2,006 | 1 |
they differed to some extent regarding the prospects for further increases in inflation. | 2,015 | 2 |
The first round of the three-month U. S. dollar auctions that major foreign central banks announced on September 15 was held in October; demand was quite limited, and only the European Central Bank (ECB) drew on its swap line with the Federal Reserve. | 2,007 | 1 |
A widespread view that the Federal Reserve would take whatever steps were needed to hold down inflation over time probably had contributed to the persistence of subdued long-run inflation expectations during an extended period when rapidly rising demand was pressing on limited supply resources. | 2,022 | 2 |
Job gains had remained solid, and the unemployment rate had stayed near its recent low. | 2,005 | 1 |
such developments underlined persisting uncertainties about behavior in labor markets and the level and growth of the economy's sustainable potential. | 2,021 | 2 |
Core consumer inflation had moved lower, | 2,000 | 0 |
However, some participants indicated that underlying inflation remained subdued | 2,008 | 0 |
In their discussion of the balance-of-risks sentence in the press statement to be issued shortly after this meeting, all the members agreed that the latter should continue to express, as it had for every meeting earlier this year, their belief that the risks remained weighted toward rising inflation. | 2,021 | 1 |
In their consideration of the appropriate stance of monetary policy, participants concurred that the labor market was very tight and that inflation was far above the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective. | 2,014 | 1 |
Some participants noted that communications about the appropriate path of policy would be a focus of market participants in the current environment and commented that it would be important to emphasize that the Committee's reaction function or commitment to its monetary policy framework had not changed. | 2,009 | 2 |
A few participants particularly stressed the high uncertainty associated with the expected future path of the unemployment rate and commented that the unemployment rate could rise by considerably more than in the staff forecast. | 2,020 | 0 |
The nominal deficit on U. S. trade in goods and services narrowed somewhat in August from a high rate in July | 2,016 | 0 |
also, continued solid economic growth abroad was expected to boost the growth of U. S. exports for some period ahead. | 2,015 | 0 |
Total nonfarm payroll employment was reported to have decreased in September, consistent with a substantial increase in the number of people who reported themselves as being absent from work due to bad weather and with payroll declines in the hurricane-affected states of Texas and Florida. | 2,013 | 0 |
Such increases in productivity along with slack in foreign economies contributed to the very strong competition in most markets that was continuing generally to suppress efforts to raise prices. | 1,999 | 2 |
survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had changed little on balance. | 2,013 | 2 |
survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had changed little on balance. | 2,020 | 2 |
Similarly, measures of underlying inflation continued to be somewhat low relative to levels seen as consistent with the dual mandate over the longer run. | 2,003 | 2 |
The demand for commercial paper declined as prime money market mutual funds experienced large net outflows after the net asset value of one such fund fell below $1 per share. | 2,018 | 2 |
They generally judged that risks to the growth outlook, including strains in global financial markets, were significant and tilted to the downside | 1,996 | 0 |
Those few members who expressed a preference for easing at this meeting believed that, with unit labor costs and inflation expectations contained, enough evidence of further weakness already existed to warrant an immediate action. | 2,000 | 0 |
Broad equity prices rose, adding to their substantial gains since the middle of 2010. | 1,999 | 2 |
In particular, participants judged that communicating the Committee's expectation that short-term interest rates were likely to stay exceptionally low for some time could be useful because it could lead to pricing of longer-term interest rates consistent with the path of monetary policy that policymakers saw as most likely. | 2,003 | 0 |
The pace of inventory liquidation was thought likely to moderate in coming quarters and subsequently turn to accumulation as inventories came into better balance with sales, with increasingly positive implications for overall production and economic activity. | 2,013 | 1 |
Industrial production had slipped in recent months and private payroll employment had changed little, | 2,014 | 2 |
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