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Indeed, the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee determined in July that the recession that began in March of last year ended in April, making it not only the deepest recession on record, but also the briefest.2 The recovery that commenced in the summer of 2020 was quite robust, and, with one quarter to go, GDP growth in 2021 is projected by the Fed and many outside forecasters to be the fastest since 1983. | 2,005 | 1 |
However, the historical record suggests that permanently lowering inflation expectations may require keeping monetary policy tight for a substantial period, resulting in considerable output and employment losses for a time. | 2,006 | 1 |
In particular, I will focus on liquidity regulation and supervision as well as interactions with monetary policy tools. | 2,021 | 2 |
Domestic respondents to the April SLOOS generally reported tightening their lending standards and experiencing weaker loan demand across all major CRE loan categories during the first quarter. | 2,016 | 0 |
Recent increases in house prices and equity prices were positives, but participants generally expected no more than moderate growth in consumer spending over the near term. | 2,007 | 2 |
The pickup in demand had yet to materially narrow currently wide margins of idle labor and other resources, and these margins along with the uncertainties that still surrounded current forecasts of robust economic growth suggested that an accommodative monetary policy might remain desirable for a considerable period of time. | 2,012 | 0 |
A second set of circumstances in which deflation or very low inflation may pose significant problems is potentially more relevant to the current U.S. economy. | 2,005 | 0 |
In such an environment, a central bank mandated to pursue price stability can be flexible according to the circumstances, while one with a numerical target may need to obtain formal modification of its objectives. | 2,021 | 2 |
Looking ahead, some growth in overall consumer spending appeared likely in association with the now more firmly entrenched economic expansion. | 2,004 | 1 |
Participants also generally agreed that the recent data had not led them to significantly change their outlooks for the most likely rates of economic growth and inflation in coming quarters. | 2,004 | 2 |
In keeping with the practice at meetings when the Committee establishes its long-run ranges for growth of the money and debt aggregates, the members of the Committee and the Federal Reserve Bank presidents not currently serving as members had prepared individual projections of economic activity, the rate of unemployment, and inflation for the year 1996. | 2,004 | 2 |
For example, if financial market participants thought that the Federal Reserve were not dedicated to maintaining long-run price stability, they would be less willing to hold dollar-denominated assets and the resulting decline in the exchange value of the dollar would tend to add to inflationary pressures. | 2,004 | 1 |
The staff continued to view the uncertainty around its projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation as generally similar to the average of the past 20 years. | 1,998 | 2 |
Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, members of the Board of Governors and Federal Reserve Bank presidents submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the federal funds rate for each year from 2015 through 2018 and over the longer run, conditional on each participant's judgment of appropriate monetary policy. | 2,012 | 2 |
Growth in household spending moderated toward the end of last year, but with a healthy job market, rising incomes, and upbeat consumer confidence, the fundamentals supporting household spending are solid. | 2,013 | 1 |
Major equity indexes appeared to be supported by lower interest rates and posted modest gains despite the increases in energy prices. | 2,017 | 2 |
In the simplest version of his model, Bill assumed that the central bank could choose to specify its monetary policy actions in terms of a particular level of a monetary aggregate or a particular value of a short-term nominal interest rate. | 2,021 | 2 |
King (1999) shows that, if a long enough interval is given to hit the target, there may be little difference between a price level target and an inflation rate target. | 1,998 | 2 |
In preparation for the Federal Reserve's semiannual report to the Congress on the economy and monetary policy, the members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks submitted individual projections of the growth of GDP, the rate of unemployment, and core consumer price inflation for the years 2006 and 2007. | 1,997 | 2 |
That ex post relationship, the correlation between actual--instead of intended--domestic saving and domestic investment was the object of the seminal work by Feldstein and Horioka a quarter century ago.4 Without the evident worldwide fall in home bias over the past decade, noted earlier, the United States would not have been able to finance its recent current account deficits, and, accordingly, these deficits would have been smaller. | 2,002 | 2 |
The slower growth of final spending resulted in inventory overhangs in a number of industries, most notably those related to the motor vehicle sector. | 2,000 | 2 |
Consumer price inflation was being held down by weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices. | 2,012 | 0 |
A more robust contour for final sales over the forecast horizon would lead to somewhat greater pressure on resource margins, despite the expected strong growth of structural productivity, though the level of activity would remain below the economy's potential for some time. | 2,014 | 0 |
The productivity boom after the Civil War resulted from a variety of technological advances, including the expansion of and improvements in the use of steam power, railroad transportation, and communication by telegraph. | 2,022 | 2 |
There is no evidence to date that a strong labor market is putting excessive cost-push pressure on price inflation. | 2,005 | 2 |
Participants' Views on Current Economic Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2021 through 2024 and over the longer run based on their individual assessments of appropriate monetary policy, including the path of the federal funds rate. | 1,999 | 2 |
Conclusion: The Challenge Facing Monetary Policy This analysis suggests that monetary policy does face a challenge--rebalancing aggregate supply and demand to contain the risk of higher inflation. | 2,007 | 1 |
Accordingly, in the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, the Committee decided that a slightly higher or a slightly lower federal funds rate might be acceptable during the intermeeting period. | 2,022 | 2 |
So you have seen a shift this time in most participants’ assessments of the appropriate path for policy, and, as I tried to indicate, I think that largely reflects a somewhat slower projected path for global growth—for growth in the global economy outside the United States—and for some tightening in credit conditions in the form of an increase in spreads. | 2,019 | 0 |
In their discussion of the economic situation and the outlook, meeting participants viewed the information received over the intermeeting period as suggesting that economic activity had been expanding moderately despite the global economic and financial developments of recent months. | 2,020 | 2 |
Nonetheless, many participants expressed concern that ongoing developments in the housing market could have a more pronounced impact on consumer and other spending, especially if house prices declined significantly. | 2,019 | 0 |
How the forces of demand, potential supply, and expectations interact has probably not been changed in any fundamental way by the recent trend of globalization. | 2,007 | 2 |
Sub-par expansion over the next few quarters was expected to foster an appreciable further easing of pressures on resources and some moderation in core consumer price inflation. | 2,002 | 0 |
Increasingly, it will be important for the Federal Reserve to take into account the effects of climate change and associated policies in setting monetary policy to achieve our objectives of maximum employment and price stability. | 2,019 | 2 |
Financial conditions continue to pose a downside risk to the outlook for growth. | 2,006 | 0 |
Consumer credit continued to increase at a steady pace, with similar growth rates across credit card, automobile, and student loans. | 2,006 | 1 |
The growth of domestic nonfinancial debt slowed in October (latest data), reflecting a larger further paydown of federal debt and a reduced pace of private borrowing. | 2,000 | 2 |
At the time of our FOMC meeting in January, prospects for continued economic growth remained favorable, and we judged that monetary policy was well positioned to support that outlook. | 2,017 | 0 |
Most analysts would contend that U.S. interest rates were lowered by the world's accumulation of dollars. | 2,013 | 0 |
Indeed, the proposed reduction in the nominal federal funds rate would about offset the apparent increase in the real federal funds rate stemming from a recent decline in inflation. | 2,016 | 0 |
Any of these factors might imply that the equilibrium rate relevant for policy returns more quickly to, or even moves above, its long-run level as fewer forces weigh on aggregate demand. | 2,022 | 2 |
Indeed, how will we measure inflation, and the associated financial and real implications, in the twenty-first century when our data--using current techniques--could become increasingly less adequate for tracing price trends over time? | 2,005 | 2 |
Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance. | 2,014 | 2 |
Inflation targeting was also associated with increased communication and transparency designed to clarify the central bank's policy intentions. | 1,998 | 1 |
Moreover, investing in EMEs has become more attractive as many EMEs have improved their macroeconomic policies and institutional frameworks over recent decades; growth differentials may partly be reflecting these improvements. | 2,006 | 2 |
With the economic outlook held constant, changes in the net demand for long-term securities have their largest effect on the term premium. | 2,022 | 2 |
The associated range for growth of total domestic nonfinancial sector debt was provisionally set at 3 to 7 percent for 1999. | 2,009 | 2 |
In contrast, M3 growth slowed considerably in April after a robust March advance. | 2,018 | 2 |
In our FOMC statements, we have indicated we expect to maintain the target range at this level until we are confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals. | 2,006 | 2 |
The broad index of the foreign exchange value of the dollar rose nearly 3 percent over the intermeeting period amid the rise in U. S. interest rates, market expectations that U. S. tax reform was becoming more likely, and foreign central bank actions and communications. | 2,020 | 1 |
On the supply side, the effect is fairly clear and immediate: An increase in trend productivity growth implies a more rapid pace of growth of the economy's productive capacity. | 2,017 | 1 |
Treasury bond yields declined somewhat, perhaps reflecting both expectations of lower policy rates and greater investor demands for safety. | 2,013 | 0 |
As keen observers of local economies, the directors here and elsewhere contribute vitally to the formulation of monetary policy by offering important insights absent, by definition, from even the most careful analysis of aggregate data. | 2,022 | 2 |
Participants commented on the continued improvement in labor market conditions in recent months driven by strong demand for workers. | 2,003 | 2 |
The changes to the policy statement that we made over the fall bring our policy guidance in line with the new framework outlined in the revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy that the Committee approved last August.4 In our new framework, we acknowledge that policy decisions going forward will be based on the FOMC's estimates of "shortfalls [emphasis added] of employment from its maximum level"—not "deviations." | 2,005 | 2 |
Consumer price inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective of 2 percent, restrained in part by earlier decreases in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. | 2,006 | 0 |
Referring to monetary policy developments in the 1980s, Greenspan writes: In recognition of the lag in monetary policy's impact on economic activity, a preemptive response to the potential for building inflationary pressures was made an even more important feature of policy. | 2,004 | 2 |
One of Dick Porter's many contributions was to develop a monetary approach to forecasting inflation at medium-term horizons. | 2,001 | 2 |
Given recent developments, the medium-term outlook for inflation will receive particular scrutiny. | 1,998 | 2 |
The Committee also reiterated that it would continue its asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. | 2,013 | 0 |
With energy prices having turned down, overall consumer price inflation had eased slightly in recent months, while core measures of consumer prices showed mixed changes on a twelve-month basis. | 2,020 | 2 |
In the emerging market economies (EMEs), a pickup in growth in China in the second quarter, supported by policy stimulus, appeared to be more than offset by slower growth in Latin America. | 2,010 | 2 |
But the importance of price stability has sometimes been insufficiently appreciated in our central bank's history, and, as Allan Meltzer will soon point out, such episodes have had unfortunate consequences. | 2,006 | 1 |
You know, stimulating aggregate demand is one thing, but where there’s a part of the economy that kind of will be resistant to that, you also need fiscal policy. | 2,014 | 0 |
To a considerable extent, however, any uptick in inflation expectations likely represented a reversal of anticipated declines in inflation earlier this year when economic prospects had seemed weaker and survey data did not confirm any increase in long-term inflation expectations. | 1,998 | 2 |
However, indicators of economic activity in Japan and Brazil remained weak. | 2,014 | 2 |
Residential MBS yields and residential mortgage interest rates declined, on net, over the intermeeting period to historically low levels, but their spreads to yields on long-term Treasury securities increased. | 2,012 | 2 |
And, you know, we do want inflation to run moderately above 2 percent. | 2,011 | 0 |
Participants agreed to continue to explore ways to increase transparency and clarity in the Committee's policy communications, and they indicated a willingness to look into modifications to the SEP. At the end of the discussion, the Chairman asked the subcommittee on communications to explore potential approaches to providing more information about the Committee's collective judgment regarding the economic outlook and appropriate monetary policy through the SEP. | 2,004 | 2 |
Our new statement explicitly acknowledges the challenges posed by the proximity of interest rates to the effective lower bound. | 2,002 | 1 |
The invasion and related events were creating additional upward pressure on inflation and were likely to weigh on economic activity. | 2,008 | 1 |
To measure productivity and standards of living we need measures of output but, to measure output, we need to be able to define products clearly and in terms of units that do not change from one period to the next. | 2,003 | 2 |
While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. | 2,017 | 2 |
It is precisely because none of these preconditions hold that monetary policy is so difficult and principles are needed to guide its implementation. | 1,999 | 2 |
A few participants pointed to continued strong growth in multifamily construction, although the limited pipeline of new projects in one District suggested that activity could slow in 2015. | 2,020 | 2 |
For example, the shift in manufacturing production from artisanal shops in the mid-1800s to factories after the Civil War led to a disproportionate increase in the demand for unskilled labor to operate the new machines. | 2,004 | 2 |
As a result, the likely pace and extent of policy easing expected by investors increased, and yields on nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury coupon securities fell. | 2,013 | 0 |
Much of this performance was fueled by an investment boom that also contributed importantly to rapid growth in labor productivity. | 2,013 | 0 |
Private nonfarm payroll employment increased appreciably on balance over September and October. | 1,996 | 1 |
During the 1980s and 1990s, the Federal Reserve succeeded in bringing inflation down from double-digit levels to the average rate of about 2 percent that has prevailed over the past decade. | 2,017 | 0 |
With energy price increases expected to slow next year, total PCE inflation was seen as likely to fall back in line with core inflation by the end of 2011, as in previous projections. | 2,020 | 2 |
Job gains had been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate had declined. | 2,005 | 1 |
With respect to inflation, the netting of the crosscurrents suggests a modest increase in inflation in 1998, albeit from a steadily downward-revised and very low rate in 1997. | 2,005 | 1 |
Back then, FOMC participants were forecasting unemployment rates around 7-3/4 percent and 7 percent for year-end 2013 and 2014, respectively, in our Summary of Economic Projections; as of the June 2013 round, these forecasts have been revised down roughly 1/2 percentage point each. | 2,022 | 2 |
A soft labor market will keep a lid on the growth in the cost of employing workers. | 2,005 | 2 |
The fundamentals underlying capital spending continued to be supportive, as business sector output expanded briskly, firms remained flush with funds, and relative price declines for high-tech equipment continued to push down its user cost. | 2,007 | 1 |
Persistently strong demand and increasingly supportive conditions in debt and equity markets suggested the possibility of rising inflation pressures. | 2,001 | 1 |
The trimmed mean measure of 12-month PCE price inflation constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas remained at or near 2 percent in recent months. | 2,003 | 2 |
In each case, my own preferred approach is to take the other variable into account in performing our main job of dealing with inflation and unemployment but not to target asset prices (or exchange rates). | 2,022 | 2 |
In the view of one member, however, aggregate final demand was so strong that, with economic activity and the associated demand for labor having expanded at an unsustainable pace for some time, one could be reasonably confident that inflation would most likely pick up in the absence of policy action. | 1,996 | 1 |
In the near term, the 12-month change in PCE prices was expected to move above 2 percent as the low inflation readings from the spring of last year drop out of the calculation. | 2,009 | 2 |
Looking ahead, an abatement or reversal of some of the temporary factors reducing prices was likely to raise measured inflation. | 2,019 | 1 |
Market-based measures of inflation compensation continued to indicate expectations that inflation would decline notably in coming quarters, and measures of medium-term inflation compensation fell over the intermeeting period. | 2,020 | 2 |
The staff also reported that in the leveraged loan market risk spreads had narrowed and nonprice terms had loosened further. | 2,000 | 1 |
The Committee continues to view changes in the target range for the federal funds rate as its primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy. | 2,013 | 2 |
Models of the term structure of interest rates better fit the data under the assumption that both inflation expectations and beliefs about the central bank's reaction function are evolving (Kozicki and Tinsley, 2001; Rudebusch and Wu, 2003; Cogley, 2005). | 2,020 | 2 |
Real yields increased more than their nominal counterparts, while inflation compensation implied by Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities declined. | 2,008 | 2 |
Of course, the cost of this critical stabilization was the high unemployment and lost output associated with the sharp 1981-82 recession. | 2,002 | 0 |
Finally, while my assessment of maximum employment incorporates a wide range of indicators to assess the state of the labor market—including indicators of labor compensation, productivity, and price-cost markups—the employment data I look at, such as the Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Indicators, are historically highly correlated with the unemployment rate.9 My expectation today is that the labor market by the end of 2022 will have reached my assessment of maximum employment if the unemployment rate has declined by then to the SEP median of modal projections of 3.8 percent. | 2,006 | 2 |
Committee Policy Action In their discussion of monetary policy for this meeting, members agreed that the coronavirus outbreak was causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. | 2,007 | 0 |
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