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Consumer prices had edged up in recent months, but year-over-year consumer inflation remained at a very low level. | 2,012 | 0 |
Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, members of the Board of Governors and participating Federal Reserve Bank presidents submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the federal funds rate for each year from 2015 through 2017 and over the longer run, conditional on each participant's judgment of appropriate monetary policy. | 2,012 | 2 |
Through our business contacts, we continue to hear stories about bottlenecks at almost every stage of production and distribution—for example, plants that shut down because of a shortage of one or more crucial inputs; a poor cotton crop in the United States due to weather, which is driving up prices; and clogged ports and trucker shortages. | 2,007 | 1 |
However, most participants judged that inflation would stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. | 2,006 | 2 |
Companies can keep their focus on cutting costs and increasing productivity; they can foster research and innovation; they can offer training and employee incentives to acquire more education and skills. | 2,007 | 2 |
As we gain experience with the enhanced forecasts, we will continue to evaluate how best to promote stability of both prices and employment. | 2,004 | 1 |
In fact, applying a formal regression analysis to the full sample from 1989 to 2002, we found a number fairly close to this one, namely, a stock price multiplier for monetary policy of about 4.7. | 2,022 | 2 |
The severity of the 1981-82 recession, the worst of the postwar period, clearly illustrates the danger of letting inflation get out of control. | 2,017 | 1 |
In his view, historical precedents suggested that prolonged periods of taut labor markets were eventually associated with rising inflation. | 1,999 | 1 |
That should drive productivity. | 2,016 | 2 |
Both of these views would suggest a lower level of potential output and thus reduced scope for combating unemployment with additional monetary policy stimulus. | 2,011 | 0 |
The presidents' reports often include anecdotal updates from businesses or other sources to provide real-time information on regional economic activity. | 2,022 | 2 |
Participants expected that fiscal policy would continue to be a drag on economic growth over coming quarters. | 2,008 | 0 |
Broad U. S. stock price indexes declined, on net, over the intermeeting period, apparently in response to the downbeat economic data. | 2,011 | 0 |
Indeed, the commitment to long-run price stability can afford the central bank some flexibility in employing its tools to address shorter-run economic issues. | 2,005 | 2 |
The more inflation rose, the more people came to expect it to remain high, and they built that belief into wage and pricing decisions. | 2,005 | 1 |
Real GDP was forecast to decline and the unemployment rate to rise, on net, in the first half of this year. | 2,008 | 0 |
Participants expected economic activity to contract sharply in the fourth quarter of 2008 and in early 2009. | 2,008 | 0 |
Moving to such a system would require assigning monetary policy to the task of targeting exchange rates, and countries are free to do so if they wish. | 2,013 | 2 |
Incoming data suggested that, after a weak start to the year, foreign economic activity accelerated in the second quarter. | 2,008 | 2 |
Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. | 2,000 | 0 |
But even this relation--between the unemployment rate and the concept of economic slack--is not necessarily constant, and thus a given unemployment rate may not indicate the same level of slack at two separate times. | 2,000 | 2 |
In any case, we, our job is to deliver price stability, and I think—you can think of price stability as an asset that just delivers large benefits to society over a long period of time. | 2,022 | 1 |
However, waiting was an acceptable alternative given the favorable economic news and the persisting uncertainties surrounding the relationship of output to prices. | 2,008 | 2 |
A couple of participants remarked that the very low levels of inventories would likely be a factor supporting increases in production as demand continued to recover. | 2,019 | 2 |
Hungary and Poland adopted inflation targeting following parliamentary acts stipulating that price stability was the main objective for the central bank. | 2,003 | 1 |
Conversely, perhaps the transitory factors boosting productivity will recede more sharply than most observers anticipate, and the output gap will close more rapidly. | 2,020 | 2 |
"2 One useful insight into how actual inflation may affect expectations about its future path is based in the concept of "rational inattention. | 2,007 | 2 |
In the residential real estate sector, home sales, prices, and construction had shown signs of stabilization in many areas and were increasing modestly in others, but a still-sizable inventory of unsold existing homes continued to restrain homebuilding. | 1,996 | 2 |
For these reasons, I have been interested in exploring approaches that expand the space for targeting interest rates in a more continuous fashion as an extension of our conventional policy space and in a way that reinforces forward guidance on the policy rate.18 In particular, there may be advantages to an approach that caps interest rates on Treasury securities at the short-to-medium range of the maturity spectrum—yield curve caps—in tandem with forward guidance that conditions liftoff from the ELB on employment and inflation outcomes. | 2,020 | 0 |
A number of participants noted that continued high unemployment, particularly with large numbers of workers suffering very long spells of unemployment, would lead to an erosion of workers' skills that would have adverse consequences for those workers and for the economy's potential level of output in the longer term. | 2,003 | 0 |
Over the 1994-2002 period, seven prominent inflation-targeting industrial countries had a mean inflation rate of consumer prices of 2.1 percent per year with a standard deviation of 1.7 percent. | 1,997 | 2 |
Although higher energy and other costs had the potential to add to inflation pressure, core inflation had been relatively low in the preceding few months and longer-term inflation expectations remained contained. | 2,005 | 2 |
Maintaining low inflation rates reduces the levels of future uncertainties and, hence, increases the scope of investment opportunities. | 2,021 | 1 |
The first driver is the long-term increase in the demand for currency and reserves. | 2,013 | 0 |
And we’ve talked about the effects on asset prices, but we have continued to analyze the effects of changes in interest rates, for example, on decisions like investment or car purchases. | 2,022 | 2 |
Despite further declines in vacancy rates and rising real estate prices, business spending on nonresidential construction also seemed to have been lackluster, with such activity not having changed much since last summer. | 1,999 | 2 |
Does the rapid growth in cross-border capital flows limit or even eliminate the ability of domestic monetary policy to affect domestic interest rates? | 1,999 | 2 |
Moreover, inflation was running at a fairly low rate and quite possibly would edge down a little further over coming quarters. | 2,019 | 0 |
One member was persuaded that policy had already become so expansionary that further easing ran an unacceptable risk of exacerbating inflation over time. | 1,999 | 1 |
Moreover, anecdotal evidence suggested that most firms had little ability to raise their prices in the current economic environment. | 2,003 | 1 |
The Fed is not authorized to grant money to particular beneficiaries, to meet the payroll expenses of small businesses, or to underwrite the unemployment benefits of displaced workers. | 2,003 | 2 |
The current global environment highlights the importance of having strong analytic and empirical foundations to understand financial stability considerations for monetary policy, and the research presented today will help strengthen those foundations.1 The global environment of high inflation and rising interest rates highlights the importance of paying attention to financial stability considerations for monetary policy. | 2,004 | 1 |
For example, as table 1 shows, the collective current account surplus of the Middle East and Africa rose more than $40 billion between 1996 and 2003; it continued to swell in 2004 as oil prices increased yet further. | 2,004 | 1 |
As you can see, transforming the information available from published statistics into concepts useful for assessing the consequences of monetary policy is, in fact, quite complex. | 2,004 | 2 |
In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, members agreed that it would be appropriate to maintain the existing highly accommodative stance of monetary policy. | 2,021 | 0 |
But I have showed that past experience actually indicates that a reduction in vacancies can take place without a big loss of employment, and this is the kind of soft landing anticipated by FOMC participants. | 2,022 | 2 |
Although in a number of sectors of the economy the imbalances between demand and supply—including labor supply—are substantial, I do continue to judge that these imbalances are likely to dissipate over time as the labor market and global supply chains eventually adjust and, importantly, do so without putting persistent upward pressure on price inflation, wage gains adjusted for productivity, and the 2 percent longer-run inflation objective. | 2,006 | 2 |
Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, meeting participants--the 7 members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks, all of whom participate in the deliberations of the FOMC--submitted their assessments of real output growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the target federal funds rate for each year from 2013 through 2015 and over the longer run, under each participant's judgment of appropriate monetary policy. | 2,012 | 2 |
Indeed, some expressed the concern that, with the persistence of considerable resource slack, inflation might run below mandate-consistent levels for some time. | 2,016 | 0 |
These concerns were centered around the fact that corporate borrowers could no longer raise funds in the bond or commercial paper markets at reasonable prices or, at some times and for some borrowers, at all. | 2,003 | 2 |
Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, held down in part by the effects of declines in energy and non-energy import prices. | 2,004 | 0 |
The nominal deficit on U. S. trade in goods and services widened substantially in the second quarter. | 2,016 | 1 |
There was also a sharp acceleration in productivity over 1997, which held down unit labor costs. | 2,008 | 0 |
The unemployment rate fell to 5. | 2,003 | 1 |
October 19, 2020 U.S. Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy, and Initiatives to Sustain the Flow of Credit to Households and Firms Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the Unconventional Convention of the American Bankers Association, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share It is my pleasure to meet virtually with you today at the Unconventional Convention of the American Bankers Association.1 I look forward to my conversation with Rob Nichols, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and some of the initiatives we have announced to support the flow of credit to households and firms during these challenging times. | 2,020 | 2 |
At the end of the day, we all benefit from plentiful jobs and stable prices, whether we are savers or borrowers--and many of us, of course, are both. | 2,022 | 2 |
First, the expansion of trade may cause domestic inflation to depend to a greater extent on the prices of imported goods--not only because imported goods enter the consumer basket or (in the case of imported intermediate goods) affect the costs of domestic production, but because competition with imports affects the pricing power of domestic producers. | 2,001 | 2 |
The average rate of growth of CRE loans at banks continued to be strong in October and November. | 2,009 | 1 |
Indeed, in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, four out of five countries in this group are expected to post inflation rates between 1 percent and 3 percent this year. | 2,005 | 2 |
As illustrated by the left-hand panel of figure 6, since 2000, both FOMC participants and respondents to the Blue Chip survey have markedly reduced their projections of the level of real short-term interest rates expected to prevail in the longer run. | 2,022 | 0 |
With tight labor markets and little slack in product markets, we are led to conclude that significant persistent strength in the growth of nominal demand for goods and services, outstripping the likely rate of increase in capacity, will presumably be resisted by higher market interest rates. | 2,022 | 1 |
To reduce that uncertainty, we often use the unemployment gap rather than the output gap in these rules.19 We also need to pick values for the coefficients a and b, whether they are the values John Taylor posited in his seminal 1993 article or other values from the vast literature that has come since.20 There are still other choices to make. | 2,003 | 2 |
The System Open Market Account manager and the secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability. " | 2,010 | 2 |
Moreover, the expected strength in aggregate demand would curb the extent of disinflation over time. | 2,002 | 2 |
Their forecasts of consumer price inflation for the year, as measured by the PCE chain-type price index, were centered in a range of 1-1/4 to 1-1/2 percent, with a full range of 1-1/4 to 1-3/4 percent. | 2,001 | 2 |
Some saw a risk that inflationary pressures might develop more rapidly than currently anticipated as resource utilization tightened, while several others thought that progress in achieving the Committee's inflation objective might lag if further appreciation of the dollar continued to depress non-energy commodity prices or if inflation was slow to respond to tighter resource utilization. | 2,017 | 2 |
A second economic rationale that is often advanced for the development of cities and that seems applicable to the Sioux Falls experience is that of labor market pooling--the ability of an industry to take advantage of a labor force possessing a specific set of skills, thereby raising productivity compared with competing areas with a more dispersed set of skills. | 2,004 | 0 |
However, the deficit was up appreciably from its average for the first quarter, with the value of imports increasing substantially more than the value of exports. | 1,998 | 1 |
The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation. | 2,005 | 0 |
But change is hard and not everyone is willing or able to pay the price. | 2,021 | 2 |
In their discussion of inflation developments, participants noted that readings on overall and core PCE inflation, measured on a 12-month change basis, had continued to run below the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective. | 2,021 | 0 |
The remarkable coming together of technologies that we label IT has allowed us to move beyond efficiency gains in routine manual tasks to achieve new levels of productivity in routine information-processing tasks that previously depended upon other facets of human input--computing, sorting and retrieving information, and acting on pieces of information. | 2,007 | 2 |
Accordingly, while the weight of current economic output is probably only modestly higher than it was a half century ago, value added, adjusted for price change, has risen well over threefold. | 2,004 | 2 |
Inflation readings available since the April meeting continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and continued decreases in prices of non-energy imports. | 2,016 | 0 |
Furthermore, policymakers hoped that additional tools at their disposal--so-called incomes policies enforced by “jawboning,” guideposts, and price and wage controls--were ready to combat and control any resulting upcreep in inflation with minimal macroeconomic cost. | 1,998 | 1 |
If the demand growth that caused the oil price increases is domestic, it could mean that the price shock might be less permanent. | 2,006 | 1 |
What modern monetary policymaking has not faced for quite some time, if ever, has been a major surge in innovation--matching, if not exceeding, the other great waves this century--followed by an apparent elevation of productivity growth. | 2,022 | 0 |
The role of the Board vis-à-vis the regional Banks was elevated in the aftermath of the stock market crash of 1929 and in the early years of the Great Depression, but the combination of centralized and regional responsibilities remains an important strength of the Federal Reserve System, as I'll explain shortly when I discuss the formulation of monetary policy. | 2,020 | 2 |
One might even argue that if a central bank ever converged on a single monetary rule, there would be no need for a monetary policy committee. | 2,020 | 2 |
The events of the last two years come on top of a huge expansion of global trade, competition and productive capacity--all of which have given American businesses less control over prices in the face of rising costs and benefited American consumers through low prices. | 2,013 | 2 |
The moderation reflected lower growth in most major expenditure sectors. | 2,012 | 0 |
This is perhaps because the emphasis on price stability is taken by some as carrying a hint of restrictive policy and as an inclination to always be leaning against cyclical increases in demand. | 2,020 | 2 |
I don’t think we look at—I understand what you’re asking, but we’re looking at—our mandate is price inflation and maximum employment, and that’s what we’re looking at with setting interest rates. | 2,019 | 0 |
However, the volatility of these and other commodity prices is such that possible future increases in these prices remain a risk to the inflation outlook. | 2,006 | 1 |
A potential negative cited by some members was the possibility that a weak job market, should it persist, would at some point adversely affect overall consumer sentiment and willingness to spend. | 2,003 | 0 |
Because they cannot rule out the chance that some asset prices might correct more than anticipated, policymakers must consider how the economy might withstand such a correction. | 2,007 | 2 |
In contrast, businesses cut production and employment substantially in recent months--likely reflecting, in part, inventory overhangs that persisted into the early part of the year--and fixed investment continued to contract. | 2,018 | 0 |
The effects of reduced monetary and fiscal policy stimulus were expected to be counterbalanced by continued low long-term interest rates and an abatement of energy-related headwinds. | 2,009 | 2 |
Although not without some serious shortcomings, the published productivity data provide little encouragement to the view that there has been a significant improvement in underlying productivity growth. | 2,006 | 0 |
Participants commented that demand for labor continued to outstrip available supply across many parts of the economy and that their business contacts continued to report difficulties in hiring and retaining workers. | 1,998 | 2 |
The expansion of M2 had declined substantially since late spring, apparently in part as a result of the widening opportunity costs of holding assets in M2 stemming from higher market interest rates and possibly also from slackening growth in household incomes. | 2,009 | 1 |
Participants noted that the timing of the resumption of growth in the U. S. economy depended on the containment measures put in place, as well as the success of those measures, and on the responses of other policies, including fiscal policy. | 2,011 | 2 |
So, what are the implications for monetary policy? | 2,022 | 2 |
Table 2 Distribution of Employment and of Displaced Workers by Industry Category Industry Employment Displaced Workers Restructuring 23.1 42.2 Nonrestructuring 76.9 57.8 Total 100 100 Source: Displaced Worker Supplement to the CPS. | 2,005 | 2 |
Microeconomic studies provide corroborating information to the macroeconomic evidence of a post-1995 acceleration in productivity growth. | 2,017 | 0 |
Industrial production had slipped in recent months and private payroll employment had changed little, while labor productivity remained on a strong upward trend. | 2,014 | 2 |
At the same time, the incentive to take advantage of increasingly efficient high-tech equipment and software typically available at declining prices would continue to provide an important underpinning for further large gains in investment spending, with favorable implications for continued rapid growth in productivity. | 2,021 | 2 |
With today's action, the real federal funds rate--measured as the difference between the nominal funds rate and a moving average of core PCE inflation--would move slightly into positive territory. | 2,003 | 1 |
In contrast, the past few cycles did not see this kind of behavior, and in each case, financial imbalances, rather than goods and services inflation, were notably elevated at the onset of the downturn. | 2,007 | 1 |
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