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The guidance indicates an expectation that it will be appropriate to maintain the current target range of the federal funds rate until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. | 1,997 | 2 |
Indeed, in the interest of fostering a continuation of sustainable growth of the economy, it would be desirable to tighten before any sign of actual higher inflation were to become evident. | 2,022 | 1 |
That said, the data also indicate that a surge in COVID-19 cases in the summer and supply-chain bottlenecks held back economic activity in the third quarter. | 2,007 | 0 |
Although members generally saw little risk that maintaining very low short-term interest rates could raise inflation expectations or create instability in asset markets, they noted that it was important to remain alert to these risks. | 2,005 | 0 |
In light of the economic outlook, almost all members agreed to indicate that the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014, longer than had been indicated in recent FOMC statements. | 2,004 | 0 |
The absence of further large gains in stock prices, should recent trends persist, would remove this stimulus and probably induce some moderation in the growth of consumer spending. | 2,010 | 2 |
Participants judged that an appropriate firming of the stance of monetary policy, along with an eventual waning of supply–demand imbalances, would help to keep longer-term inflation expectations anchored and bring inflation down over time to levels consistent with the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. | 2,011 | 1 |
Employment continued to expand unevenly, while labor productivity remained on a strong upward trend. | 2,005 | 1 |
Some participants also noted that recent readings on some survey measures of consumers' inflation expectations had declined or stood at historically low levels. | 2,006 | 0 |
On the positive side, weakness in world demand for oil was fostering a significant downtrend in energy prices, albeit with adverse effects on energy producers in this country and abroad. | 1,998 | 0 |
But I have seen little direct evidence on the extent to which globalization may have boosted aggregate productivity growth in the United States in recent years. | 2,022 | 2 |
At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. | 1,999 | 1 |
However, we have also found that excluding volatile food and energy prices generally gives a better sense of underlying inflation pressures that are likely to persist and dominate total inflation over time. | 2,006 | 2 |
Household spending was projected to grow at a fairly solid rate, supported by higher employment and somewhat lower energy prices but damped somewhat by lessened stimulus from gains in wealth and the need for households to rebuild savings. | 2,020 | 1 |
Indicators for China in July pointed to only a modest slowing of output growth from its torrid pace in the first half of the year. | 2,016 | 2 |
Recent data on consumer prices and unit labor costs led the staff to revise down slightly its projection for core PCE price inflation for 2010 and 2011; as before, core inflation was projected to be quite subdued at rates below last year's pace. | 2,008 | 0 |
For example, for 2003 as a whole, growth in both the monetary base and M2 should be about equal to growth in nominal GDP. | 2,004 | 0 |
Nonetheless, the potential for significant further weakening in housing activity and home prices represented a downside risk to the economic outlook. | 2,021 | 0 |
These participants stated that, in such circumstances, a major challenge facing policymakers—especially in the presence of the effective lower bound on the federal funds rate—was to maintain a policy stance sufficiently accommodative to keep average inflation at 2 percent and thereby bolster the credibility of the Committee's new policy framework, facilitating the achievement of both maximum employment and price stability. | 2,007 | 0 |
Japan enjoyed effective price stability through most of the 1980s. | 2,004 | 2 |
Today a rise in oil prices has mixed effects on the economy, lowering real household incomes and thus demand, but raising investment in drilling over time and benefiting oil-producing areas more generally. | 2,019 | 1 |
However, other participants observed that measures of longer-term inflation compensation derived from financial instruments had remained stable of late, and that survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations also had not changed appreciably, on net, in recent months. | 2,000 | 2 |
However, those concerns generally were seen as outweighed by the benefit of avoiding tying the Committee's decision too closely to the unemployment rate alone, while still being clear about the Committee's intention to provide the monetary accommodation needed to support a return to maximum employment and stable prices. | 2,008 | 0 |
Even before the recent unfortunate developments in the Middle East, demand to augment buffer stocks surged, which has helped to keep prices high. | 2,003 | 1 |
Expectations of greater and longer-lasting slack in labor and product markets than anticipated earlier had led to downward revisions to forecasts of wage and price inflation. | 2,004 | 0 |
In addition, to address the sizable demand for dollar funding in foreign jurisdictions, the FOMC authorized the expansion of its existing swap lines with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank; by the end of the intermeeting period, the formal quantity limits on these lines had been eliminated. | 2,017 | 0 |
Rents have grown dramatically, and while home sales have slowed, the continued increasing price of single-family homes indicates to me that rents won't decline anytime in the near future. | 2,020 | 1 |
The Committee again anticipated that it likely would be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remained well anchored. | 2,016 | 0 |
On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and core inflation, which excludes changes in food and energy prices, had remained near 2 percent. | 2,010 | 2 |
With home prices depressed, housing construction was quite subdued and seen as likely to remain so, while investment in nonresidential structures remained low. | 1,999 | 0 |
My goal is not to draw conclusions on recent movements in risk premiums but rather to give you a sense of how estimates of risk premiums may influence our policy decisionmaking, to note some of the difficulties that we face in interpreting their movements, and, I hope, to stimulate further research in this already fertile field.1 At the Federal Reserve, we pay a lot of attention to financial market prices in the formulation of monetary policy. | 2,021 | 2 |
All members agreed that the FOMC statement for this meeting should again indicate that policy accommodation could be removed at a pace that was likely to be measured but that the Committee would respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to maintain price stability. | 1,997 | 1 |
Partly because of high demand for Treasury securities, the overnight repo rate for Treasury general collateral was near zero for much of the period, and failures to deliver Treasury securities reached record highs. | 2,001 | 0 |
However, as had been the case for many years, the members remained concerned that forecasts of money growth were still subject to a wide range of error in terms of the anticipated relationships between money growth and aggregate economic performance. | 1,998 | 2 |
During the period examined, the rate of overall consumer inflation was 2.78 percent, as measured by the regular CPI-U for All Items. | 2,000 | 1 |
M2 expanded in February, however, as liquid deposits resumed their growth. | 2,008 | 0 |
Even so, the growth of investment spending over this period noticeably outpaced the rise in retained earnings, and thus these corporations turned to the capital markets to fill the widening gap. | 2,003 | 1 |
Given the pressure of a considerable amount of unused resources, any adverse developments that held down economic expansion would increase the probability of further disinflation. | 2,010 | 0 |
Price and capital controls, which might have been feasible a half century ago, would be very difficult to implement in today's more technologically advanced environment. | 2,002 | 2 |
Modern quantitative approaches to risk measurement and risk management take as their starting point historical experience with market price fluctuations, which is statistically summarized in probability distributions. | 2,020 | 2 |
The authors’ principal empirical finding is that the onset and, to a lesser degree, the end of the Great Inflation were closely synchronized across a number of countries. | 2,021 | 2 |
Labor productivity growth slowed to an average pace of 1.4 percent per year over this period, while multifactor productivity growth fell to a pace of 0.4 percent, the slowest pace of any of the periods shown on the table. | 1,998 | 1 |
This conclusion is buttressed by recent sizable increases estimated for labor productivity for the manufacturing sector, derived from a data system that, for the most part, is independent of the national accounts. | 2,003 | 2 |
On average, over the period from November 2020 to January 2021, the fraction of prime-age women with children aged 6 to 17 who were out of the labor force for caregiving had increased by 2.4 percentage points from a year earlier, while for men the fraction had increased by about 0.6 percentage point.5 If not soon reversed, the decline in the participation rate for prime‑age women could have scarring effects, with longer-term implications for household incomes and potential growth.6 Roughly 90 percent of the shortfall in private payroll employment relative to the pre-COVID level is concentrated in service-providing industries, with half of these service job losses in leisure and hospitality. | 2,017 | 0 |
Monetary policy clearly can do little about the first-round effects of a permanent rise in energy prices, which include both its direct impact on the energy component of overall consumer prices and the pass-through of higher energy costs into prices of non-energy goods and services. | 2,021 | 1 |
Consistent with the Committee's decision to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, the Board of Governors voted unanimously to leave the interest rates on required and excess reserve balances at 0. | 1,996 | 2 |
The nominal deficit on U. S. trade in goods and services widened substantially in July, reflecting both a decline in exports and a rise in imports. | 2,016 | 1 |
During the five years before the crisis, core goods made a small negative contribution to inflation. | 2,000 | 0 |
Lessons from Past Productivity Booms First, many of the technological innovations associated with past productivity booms were general purpose technologies (GPTs) with widespread applicability. | 2,005 | 2 |
Members also agreed that there was only a remote possibility that the process of disinflation would cumulate to the point of a decline for an extended period in the general price level. | 1,998 | 2 |
To anticipate a bubble about to burst requires the forecast of a plunge in the prices of assets previously set by the judgments of millions of investors, many of whom are highly knowledgeable about the prospects for the specific companies that make up our broad stock price indexes. | 2,022 | 2 |
Equity prices have recently increased considerably, pushing the forward price-earnings ratio further above its historical median (slide). | 1,997 | 0 |
Higher interest rates are working to temper demand and bring it into better alignment with supply, which is still constrained. | 2,021 | 1 |
Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. | 2,020 | 0 |
The vote encompassed approval of the paragraph below for inclusion in the press statement to be released shortly after the meeting: "The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters are roughly equal. | 2,012 | 2 |
Although the pace of job losses was moderating, the unusually large fraction of those who were working part time for economic reasons and the unusually low level of the average workweek pointed to only a gradual decline in the unemployment rate as the economic recovery proceeded. | 2,018 | 0 |
Deflation, like inflation, would distort resource allocation and interfere with the economy's ability to reach its full potential. | 2,021 | 0 |
The slowdown would reflect factors that were expected to damp the growth of overall business investment spending and a greater saturation of potential computer markets that might lead to more emphasis on replacement demand rather than the further expansion of capacity. | 2,000 | 0 |
In fact, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming Community Affairs Research Conference will feature several papers that explore these issues.5 Homeownership The important issue of loan pricing aside, expanded access to mortgage credit has helped fuel substantial growth in homeownership. | 1,999 | 2 |
It is an honor to be here with Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, who pioneered the original Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy in 2012. | 2,020 | 2 |
Although the moderation in the growth of aggregate demand would help limit inflation pressures over time, the Committee judged that some inflation risks remained. | 2,018 | 1 |
But equity prices were only holding their own after a substantial decline earlier and the dollar had appreciated. | 2,000 | 0 |
Besides influencing the near-term course of important economic variables, such as gross domestic product growth, inflation, and profits, productivity largely determines our society's long-term economic welfare. | 2,000 | 2 |
Fiscal policy was expected to be somewhat less expansionary next year, though still an important contributor to economic growth. | 2,002 | 2 |
On March 16, we launched a program to purchase Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities in whatever amounts needed to support smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. | 2,002 | 2 |
In contrast, economic activity declined in Japan during the third quarter after a surge in the first half of the year. | 2,018 | 2 |
Staff Economic Outlook In the economic forecast prepared by the staff for the June FOMC meeting, real GDP growth in the second half of this year was expected to step up from its pace in the first half. | 2,012 | 1 |
More specifically, we observed financial-market developments over the period beginning fifteen minutes before and ending forty-five minutes after each policy decision became known to the public.4 The advantage of restricting the analysis to a short period spanning the Committee's decision is that the changes in yields or asset prices occurring within that narrow window are more likely to reflect the impact of the decision, as opposed to the arrival of other information about the economy. | 2,002 | 2 |
In practice, the Fed operates through a committee structure and considers the recommendations of a variety of monetary rules as we make monetary policy decisions. | 2,005 | 2 |
And it’s natural that if it can be employed that, just as monetary policy is doing a lot to try to June 15, 2016 stimulate growth, that fiscal policy should play a role. | 2,020 | 0 |
However, the dollar partially retraced these increases following the much weaker-than-expected U. S. employment report for May, finishing the period a bit stronger against the currencies of the AFEs and about 3 percent higher against EME currencies. | 1,998 | 0 |
Prospects for ProductivityLet me close with some comments on the outlook for productivity. | 2,000 | 2 |
First, with more complete information available, markets will price financial assets more efficiently. | 1,999 | 2 |
In contrast, the dollar appreciated against the AFE currencies, reflecting continued divergence in monetary policy expectations for the United States and AFEs as well as political uncertainty in Europe. | 2,018 | 0 |
Despite some recent turbulence, owing in part to geopolitical events, stock prices have logged robust gains over the past 3-1/2 years, and broad equity indices have now retraced most of the ground lost between 2000 and 2002. | 2,021 | 2 |
In May, there was a notable rebound in employment and decline in unemployment, and these developments are certainly welcome. | 2,020 | 1 |
In other cases, it’s pretty clear that inflation has spread more broadly across services. | 2,013 | 1 |
In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consider- ation to economic, financial, and monetary developments, a somewhat higher federal funds rate would or a slightly lower federal funds rate might be acceptable in the intermeeting period. | 1,996 | 2 |
The 5.4% unemployment rate in 1996 was the lowest annual rate since 1988 and before that since 1973. | 2,005 | 2 |
In the context of this discussion, many participants commented that their view of potential output growth was somewhat more optimistic than that of the staff. | 1,996 | 1 |
Today, just nine months later, the unemployment rate is 7.6 percent--a larger decline than most FOMC participants expected in September. | 2,019 | 2 |
As a result, growth of spending on consumer durables and houses was expected to slow; in contrast, however, overall business investment in equipment and software was projected to strengthen in response to the upward trend in replacement demand, especially for computers and software; also, continued solid economic growth abroad was expected to boost the growth of U. S. exports for some period ahead. | 2,015 | 0 |
Once such expectations became imbedded in the economy, even stronger policy actions would be required in order to reestablish a downward trend of inflation. | 1,998 | 1 |
The increase in upside risks to domestic demand and the diminution of foreign risks together suggest that risks to the outlook are more balanced today than they had been for the preceding two years. | 2,004 | 2 |
Participants' concerns about inflation prospects generally had increased over the intermeeting period. | 1,999 | 1 |
In those Districts in which activity had been adversely affected by the drop in energy prices, drilling activity was either contracting less rapidly or was stabilizing. | 2,010 | 0 |
Job gains had been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate had remained low. | 2,005 | 1 |
The delays often reflected concerns about the putative costs and risks of these policies, such as stoking high inflation and impairing market functioning. | 2,004 | 1 |
For example, Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei (2003) have used modern financial theory to construct a model of the Treasury yield curve that closely links the behavior of real GDP and a few key interest rates. | 2,004 | 2 |
Recent data pointed to little change in underlying inflation trends. | 2,008 | 2 |
Nonetheless, employment is still 9.5 million below its pre-pandemic level for the economy as a whole. | 1,999 | 0 |
Productivity and the equilibrium real interest rate. | 2,001 | 2 |
However, a few other participants pointed to the record of inflation consistently running below the Committee's 2 percent objective over recent years and expressed the concern that longer-run inflation expectations may have slipped below levels consistent with that objective. | 1,996 | 0 |
However, we now know that an unexpected and unrecognized slowdown in productivity growth occurred in 1973. | 2,003 | 1 |
This effort culminated in 1943 with the publication of Banking and Monetary Statistics, which included annual figures on demand and time deposits from 1892 and on currency from 1860. | 2,003 | 2 |
The current range readily encompassed the growth rate seen likely to be associated with the members' forecasts for economic activity and prices. | 2,018 | 2 |
Compared with the baseline, the disruption to economic activity was more severe and protracted in this scenario, with real GDP and inflation lower and the unemployment rate higher by the end of the medium-term projection. | 2,007 | 0 |
On the foreign trade side of the economy, an anticipated firming of economic conditions abroad would provide impetus to real net exports, At the same time, however, imports were expected to rise appreciably in response to the expansion of domestic economic activity and the appreciation of the dollar, and on balance the external sector probably would not be boosting real GDP. | 2,001 | 0 |
Tax rebates, declining energy prices, and widespread discounting of retail prices were cited as positive factors in support of consumer spending on a wide range of goods and services. | 2,000 | 2 |
Theory also teaches that the increase in the rate of return on capital--even if generated by a rise in the growth rate of technical change--ultimately requires an increase in real market interest rates. | 2,004 | 1 |
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