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1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Self Care Skin Health & Beauty Essential Health
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Figure 32: Segment Contribution to L3Y and N3Y Organic CAGR
3.1%
2.4%
0.0% 1.6%
0.3%
0.8%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
L3Y (2020-2022) N3Y (2023-2025)
Self Care Skin Health & Beauty Essential Health
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Figure 33: Segment Organic Growth by Year
9.5%
-2.8%
1.9%
2.9%
5.4%
2.8%
2.1%
3.5%
10.9%
0.5%
-1.4%
3.8%
8.1%
5.8%
3.4%
6.0%
4.6%
5.1%
2.2%
4.0%
4.8%
5.3%
2.3%
4.2%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Self Care Skin Health & Beauty Essential Health Total
2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Figure 34: Segment L3Y and N3Y Organic CAGR
8.6%
0.1%
0.9%
3.4%
5.8%
5.4%
2.6%
4.7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Self Care Skin Health & Beauty Essential Health Total
L3Y (2020-2022) N3Y (2023-2025)
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Expect OSG to Be Mostly Driven By Pricing (as Peers) But Normalize Ahead
Within the top-line outlook, we expect 2023 growth to be driven exclusively by price/
mix as the company benefits from carryover pricing actions put through in 2022 as well
as some incremental pricing in 2023, partially offset by expected volume decline likely
from elasticity and continued normalization post tailwinds from COVID-19 and recent
􀋘triple-demic.􀋙 2022 organic growth was likewise driven entirely by price/mix, although
volumes were relatively flattish as volume growth in Self Care was offset by the other
segments, which was partially impacted by SKU rationalization, product exits in Russia,
COVID-19 lockdowns, and supply disruptions. Excluding these items management
estimates 2022 volumes would have been up +1.7%. Historically, volume represented