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Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
For example, when industrial robots came along,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:07:28.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
many people predicted that lots of jobs are going to get lost.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:07:33.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
And in a sense, they were right,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:07:38.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
because back then there were car factories
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:07:42.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
and hundreds of people in these factories assembled cars,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:07:46.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
and today the same car factories have hundreds of robots
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:07:51.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
and maybe three guys watching the robots.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:07:54.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
On the other hand, those countries that have lots of robots per capita,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:07:59.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
Japan, Korea, Germany, Switzerland,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:08:05.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
and a couple of other countries,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:08:07.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
they have really low unemployment rates.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:08:10.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
Somehow, all kinds of new jobs were created.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:08:14.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
Back then, nobody anticipated those jobs.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:08:18.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
And decades ago, I always said,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:08:23.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
it's really easy to say which jobs are going to get lost,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:08:27.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
but it's really hard to predict the new ones.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:08:32.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
200 years ago, who would have predicted all these people
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:08:36.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
making money as YouTube bloggers, for example?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:08:40.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
200 years ago, 60% of all people used to work in agriculture.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:08:46.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
Today, maybe 1%.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:08:54.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
But still, only, I don't know, 5% unemployment.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:08:57.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
Lots of new jobs were created, and Homo Ludens, the playing man,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:09:02.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
is inventing new jobs all the time.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:09:08.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
Most of these jobs are not existentially necessary
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:09:11.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
for the survival of our species.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:09:16.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
There are only very few existentially necessary jobs,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:09:19.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
such as farming and building houses and warming up the houses,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:09:23.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
but less than 10% of the population is doing that.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:09:28.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
And most of these newly invented jobs are about
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:09:31.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
interacting with other people in new ways,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:09:35.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
through new media and so on,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:09:38.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
getting new types of kudos and forms of likes and whatever,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:09:41.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
and even making money through that.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:09:46.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
So, Homo Ludens, the playing man, doesn't want to be unemployed,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:09:48.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
and that's why he's inventing new jobs all the time.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:09:53.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
And he keeps considering these jobs as really important
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:09:57.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
and is investing a lot of energy and hours of work into those new jobs.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:10:02.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
That's quite beautifully put.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:10:08.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
We're really nervous about the future because we can't predict
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:10:10.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
what kind of new jobs will be created.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:10:13.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
But you're ultimately optimistic that we humans are so restless
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:10:15.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
that we create and give meaning to newer and newer jobs,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:10:21.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
totally new, things that get likes on Facebook
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:10:25.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
or whatever the social platform is.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:10:29.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
So what about long term existential threat of AI,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:10:32.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
where our whole civilization may be swallowed up
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:10:36.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
by these ultra super intelligent systems?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:10:41.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
Maybe it's not going to be swallowed up,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:10:45.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
but I'd be surprised if we humans were the last step
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:10:48.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
in the evolution of the universe.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:10:55.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
You've actually had this beautiful comment somewhere that I've seen
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:10:58.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
saying that, quite insightful, artificial general intelligence systems,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:11:05.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
just like us humans, will likely not want to interact with humans,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:11:12.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
they'll just interact amongst themselves.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:11:16.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
Just like ants interact amongst themselves
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:11:18.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
and only tangentially interact with humans.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:11:21.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
And it's quite an interesting idea that once we create AGI,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:11:25.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
they will lose interest in humans and compete for their own Facebook likes
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:11:29.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
and their own social platforms.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:11:34.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
So within that quite elegant idea, how do we know in a hypothetical sense
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:11:36.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
that there's not already intelligence systems out there?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:11:45.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
How do you think broadly of general intelligence greater than us?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:11:49.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
How do we know it's out there?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:11:54.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
How do we know it's around us?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:11:56.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
And could it already be?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:11:59.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
I'd be surprised if within the next few decades or something like that,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:12:01.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
we won't have AIs that are truly smart in every single way
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:12:07.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
and better problem solvers in almost every single important way.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:12:13.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
And I'd be surprised if they wouldn't realize what we have realized a long time ago,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:12:17.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
which is that almost all physical resources are not here in this biosphere,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:12:25.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
but further out, the rest of the solar system gets 2 billion times more solar energy
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:12:31.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
than our little planet.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:12:41.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
There's lots of material out there that you can use to build robots
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:12:43.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
and self replicating robot factories and all this stuff.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:12:47.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
And they are going to do that and they will be scientists and curious
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:12:51.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
and they will explore what they can do.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:12:56.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
And in the beginning, they will be fascinated by life
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:12:59.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
and by their own origins in our civilization.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:13:04.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
They will want to understand that completely, just like people today
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:13:07.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
would like to understand how life works and also the history of our own existence
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:13:11.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
and civilization, but then also the physical laws that created all of that.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:13:21.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
So in the beginning, they will be fascinated by life.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:13:27.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
Once they understand it, they lose interest.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:13:30.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
Like anybody who loses interest in things he understands.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:13:34.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
And then, as you said, the most interesting sources of information for them
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:13:40.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
will be others of their own kind.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:13:50.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
So at least in the long run, there seems to be some sort of protection
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:13:58.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
through lack of interest on the other side.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:14:06.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
And now it seems also clear, as far as we understand physics,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:14:11.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
you need matter and energy to compute and to build more robots and infrastructure
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:14:17.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
for AI civilization and EIEI ecologies consisting of trillions of different types of AIs.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:14:23.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
And so it seems inconceivable to me that this thing is not going to expand.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:14:31.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
Some AI ecology not controlled by one AI, but trillions of different types of AIs
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:14:37.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
competing in all kinds of quickly evolving and disappearing ecological niches
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:14:44.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
in ways that we cannot fathom at the moment.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:14:50.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
But it's going to expand, limited by light speed and physics,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:14:52.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
but it's going to expand and now we realize that the universe is still young.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:14:57.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
It's only 13.8 billion years old and it's going to be a thousand times older than that.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:15:03.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
So there's plenty of time to conquer the entire universe
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:15:10.040
Juergen Schmidhuber: Godel Machines, Meta-Learning, and LSTMs | Lex Fridman Podcast #11
and to fill it with intelligence and senders and receivers
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0011-large.html#01:15:17.040