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Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | You just can't remember a sequence of moves that's 50 moves long. And you can't imagine | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:09:02.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | the board correctly for that many moves into the future. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:09:08.960 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Of course, the top players, I'm much more familiar with chess, but the top players probably have, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:09:13.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | they have echoes of the same kind of intuition instinct that in a moment's time AlphaGo applies | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:09:19.680 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | when they see a board. I mean, they've seen those patterns, human beings have seen those patterns | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:09:26.720 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | before at the top, at the grandmaster level. It seems that there is some similarities or maybe | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:09:31.600 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | it's our imagination creates a vision of those similarities, but it feels like this kind of | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:09:41.360 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | pattern recognition that the AlphaGo approaches are using is similar to what human beings at the | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:09:47.360 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | top level are using. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:09:53.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | I think there's, there's some truth to that, but not entirely. Yeah. I mean, I think the, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:09:55.360 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | the extent to which a human grandmaster can reliably instantly recognize the right move | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:10:03.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | and instantly recognize the value of the position. I think that's a little bit overrated. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:10:10.720 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | But if you sacrifice a queen, for example, I mean, there's these, there's these beautiful games of | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:10:15.840 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | chess with Bobby Fischer, somebody where it's seeming to make a bad move. And I'm not sure | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:10:20.480 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | there's a perfect degree of calculation involved where they've calculated all the possible things | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:10:28.400 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | that happen, but there's an instinct there, right? That somehow adds up to | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:10:34.720 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Yeah. So I think what happens is you, you, you get a sense that there's some possibility in the | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:10:40.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | position, even if you make a weird looking move, that it opens up some, some lines of, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:10:46.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | of calculation that otherwise would be definitely bad. And, and it's that intuition that there's | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:10:56.080 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | something here in this position that might, might yield a win. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:11:05.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And then you follow that, right? And, and in some sense, when a, when a chess player is | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:11:10.880 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | following a line and in his or her mind, they're, they're mentally simulating what the other person | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:11:16.080 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | is going to do, what the opponent is going to do. And they can do that as long as the moves are kind | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:11:23.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | of forced, right? As long as there's, you know, there's a, a fort we call a forcing variation | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:11:29.200 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | where the opponent doesn't really have much choice how to respond. And then you follow that, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:11:34.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | how to respond. And then you see if you can force them into a situation where you win. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:11:39.120 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | You know, we see plenty of mistakes even, even in grandmaster games where they just miss some | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:11:43.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | simple three, four, five move combination that, you know, wasn't particularly apparent in, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:11:51.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | in the position, but was still there. That's the thing that makes us human. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:11:58.560 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Yeah. So when you mentioned that in Othello, those games were after some matter reasoning | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:12:02.560 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | improvements and research was able to beat you. How did that make you feel? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:12:09.680 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Part of the meta reasoning capability that it had was based on learning and, and you could | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:12:14.960 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | sit down the next day and you could just feel that it had got a lot smarter, you know, and all of a | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:12:23.680 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | sudden you really felt like you're sort of pressed against the wall because it was, it was much more | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:12:30.240 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | aggressive and, and was totally unforgiving of any minor mistake that you might make. And, and | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:12:37.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | actually it seemed understood the game better than I did. And Gary Kasparov has this quote where | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:12:43.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | during his match against Deep Blue, he said, he suddenly felt that there was a new kind of | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:12:52.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | intelligence across the board. Do you think that's a scary or an exciting | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:12:56.880 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | possibility for, for Kasparov and for yourself in, in the context of chess, purely sort of | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:13:03.120 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | in this, like that feeling, whatever that is? I think it's definitely an exciting feeling. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:13:10.320 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | You know, this is what made me work on AI in the first place was as soon as I really understood | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:13:17.680 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | what a computer was, I wanted to make it smart. You know, I started out with the first program | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:13:23.680 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | I wrote was for the Sinclair programmable calculator. And I think you could write a | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:13:29.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | 21 step algorithm. That was the biggest program you could write, something like that. And do | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:13:35.680 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | little arithmetic calculations. So I think I implemented Newton's method for a square | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:13:42.800 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | roots and a few other things like that. But then, you know, I thought, okay, if I just had more | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:13:48.080 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | space, I could make this thing intelligent. And so I started thinking about AI and, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:13:54.240 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | and I think the, the, the thing that's scary is not, is not the chess program | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:14:04.880 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | because, you know, chess programs, they're not in the taking over the world business. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:14:11.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | But if you extrapolate, you know, there are things about chess that don't resemble | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:14:19.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | the real world, right? We know, we know the rules of chess. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:14:29.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | The chess board is completely visible to the program where of course the real world is not | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:14:35.120 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | most, most of the real world is, is not visible from wherever you're sitting, so to speak. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:14:40.720 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And to overcome those kinds of problems, you need qualitatively different algorithms. Another thing | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:14:47.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | about the real world is that, you know, we, we regularly plan ahead on the timescales involving | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:14:56.720 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | billions or trillions of steps. Now we don't plan those in detail, but you know, when you | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:15:05.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | choose to do a PhD at Berkeley, that's a five year commitment and that amounts to about a trillion | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:15:12.400 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | motor control steps that you will eventually be committed to. Including going up the stairs, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:15:19.680 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | opening doors, drinking water. Yeah. I mean, every, every finger movement while you're typing, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:15:26.240 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | every character of every paper and the thesis and everything. So you're not committing in | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:15:32.240 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | advance to the specific motor control steps, but you're still reasoning on a timescale that | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:15:36.240 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | will eventually reduce to trillions of motor control actions. And so for all of these reasons, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:15:41.600 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | you know, AlphaGo and Deep Blue and so on don't represent any kind of threat to humanity, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:15:52.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | but they are a step towards it, right? And progress in AI occurs by essentially removing | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:15:58.080 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | one by one these assumptions that make problems easy. Like the assumption of complete observability | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:16:07.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | of the situation, right? We remove that assumption, you need a much more complicated | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:16:14.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | kind of computing design. It needs, it needs something that actually keeps track of all the | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:16:20.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | things you can't see and tries to estimate what's going on. And there's inevitable uncertainty | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:16:25.120 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | in that. So it becomes a much more complicated problem. But, you know, we are removing those | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:16:31.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | assumptions. We are starting to have algorithms that can cope with much longer timescales, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:16:36.880 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | that can cope with uncertainty, that can cope with partial observability. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:16:42.320 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And so each of those steps sort of magnifies by a thousand the range of things that we can | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:16:47.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | do with AI systems. So the way I started in AI, I wanted to be a psychiatrist for a long time. I | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:16:54.240 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | wanted to understand the mind in high school and of course program and so on. And I showed up | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:16:58.880 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | University of Illinois to an AI lab and they said, okay, I don't have time for you, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:17:04.960 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | but here's a book, AI and Modern Approach. I think it was the first edition at the time. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:17:10.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Here, go, go, go learn this. And I remember the lay of the land was, well, it's incredible that | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:17:16.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | we solved chess, but we'll never solve go. I mean, it was pretty certain that go | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:17:22.080 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | in the way we thought about systems that reason wasn't possible to solve. And now we've solved | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:17:27.360 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | this. So it's a very... Well, I think I would have said that it's unlikely we could take | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:17:33.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | the kind of algorithm that was used for chess and just get it to scale up and work well for go. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:17:39.840 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And at the time what we thought was that in order to solve go, we would have to do something similar | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:17:46.480 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | to the way humans manage the complexity of go, which is to break it down into kind of sub games. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:17:56.800 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | So when a human thinks about a go board, they think about different parts of the board as sort | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:18:02.800 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | of weakly connected to each other. And they think about, okay, within this part of the board, here's | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:18:08.320 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | how things could go in that part of board, here's how things could go. And then you try to sort of | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:18:13.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | couple those two analyses together and deal with the interactions and maybe revise your views of | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:18:18.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | how things are going to go in each part. And then you've got maybe five, six, seven, ten parts of | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:18:24.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | the board. And that actually resembles the real world much more than chess does because in the | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:18:28.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | real world, we have work, we have home life, we have sport, different kinds of activities, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:18:38.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | shopping, these all are connected to each other, but they're weakly connected. So when I'm typing | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:18:46.880 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | a paper, I don't simultaneously have to decide which order I'm going to get the milk and the | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:18:54.560 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | butter, that doesn't affect the typing. But I do need to realize, okay, I better finish this | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:19:01.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | before the shops close because I don't have anything, I don't have any food at home. So | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:19:08.240 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | there's some weak connection, but not in the way that chess works where everything is tied into a | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:19:12.320 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | single stream of thought. So the thought was that to solve go, we'd have to make progress on stuff | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:19:19.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | that would be useful for the real world. And in a way, AlphaGo is a little bit disappointing, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:19:26.080 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | right? Because the program designed for AlphaGo is actually not that different from Deep Blue | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:19:29.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | or even from Arthur Samuel's checker playing program from the 1950s. And in fact, the two | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:19:39.680 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | things that make AlphaGo work is one is this amazing ability to evaluate the positions, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:19:48.160 |
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