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Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | and the other is the meta reasoning capability, which allows it to | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:19:53.360 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | explore some paths in the tree very deeply and to abandon other paths very quickly. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:19:57.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | So this word meta reasoning, while technically correct, inspires perhaps the wrong degree of | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:20:04.400 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | power that AlphaGo has, for example, the word reasoning is a powerful word. So let me ask you, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:20:14.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | sort of, you were part of the symbolic AI world for a while, like AI was, there's a lot of | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:20:19.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | excellent, interesting ideas there that unfortunately met a winter. And so do you think it reemerges? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:20:27.760 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | So I would say, yeah, it's not quite as simple as that. So the AI winter | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:20:38.320 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | for the first winter that was actually named as such was the one in the late 80s. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:20:44.320 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And that came about because in the mid 80s, there was a really a concerted attempt to push AI | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:20:51.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | out into the real world using what was called expert system technology. And for the most part, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:21:01.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | that technology was just not ready for primetime. They were trying, in many cases, to do a form of | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:21:09.120 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | uncertain reasoning, judgment, combinations of evidence, diagnosis, those kinds of things, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:21:17.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | which was simply invalid. And when you try to apply invalid reasoning methods to real problems, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:21:24.480 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | you can fudge it for small versions of the problem. But when it starts to get larger, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:21:31.600 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | the thing just falls apart. So many companies found that the stuff just didn't work, and they | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:21:36.720 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | were spending tons of money on consultants to try to make it work. And there were other | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:21:44.240 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | practical reasons, like they were asking the companies to buy incredibly expensive | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:21:50.400 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Lisp machine workstations, which were literally between $50,000 and $100,000 in 1980s money, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:21:56.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | which would be like between $150,000 and $300,000 per workstation in current prices. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:22:06.080 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And then the bottom line, they weren't seeing a profit from it. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:22:13.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Yeah, in many cases. I think there were some successes, there's no doubt about that. But | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:22:17.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | people, I would say, overinvested. Every major company was starting an AI department, just like | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:22:23.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | now. And I worry a bit that we might see similar disappointments, not because the current technology | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:22:30.800 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | is invalid, but it's limited in its scope. And it's almost the duel of the scope problems that | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:22:40.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | expert systems had. So what have you learned from that hype cycle? And what can we do to | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:22:51.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | prevent another winter, for example? Yeah, so when I'm giving talks these days, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:22:56.720 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | that's one of the warnings that I give. So this is a two part warning slide. One is that rather | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:23:02.800 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | than data being the new oil, data is the new snake oil. That's a good line. And then the other | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:23:11.120 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | is that we might see a kind of very visible failure in some of the major application areas. And I think | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:23:18.880 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | self driving cars would be the flagship. And I think when you look at the history, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:23:30.800 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | so the first self driving car was on the freeway, driving itself, changing lanes, overtaking in 1987. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:23:40.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And so it's more than 30 years. And that kind of looks like where we are today, right? You know, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:23:52.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | prototypes on the freeway, changing lanes and overtaking. Now, I think that's one of the things | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:23:59.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | that's been made, particularly on the perception side. So we worked a lot on autonomous vehicles | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:24:05.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | in the early mid 90s at Berkeley. And we had our own big demonstrations. We put congressmen into | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:24:12.400 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | self driving cars and had them zooming along the freeway. And the problem was clearly perception. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:24:21.680 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | At the time, the problem was perception. Yeah. So in simulation, with perfect perception, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:24:30.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | you could actually show that you can drive safely for a long time, even if the other cars are | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:24:36.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | misbehaving and so on. But simultaneously, we worked on machine vision for detecting cars and | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:24:40.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | tracking pedestrians and so on. And we couldn't get the cars to do that. And so we had to do | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:24:48.800 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | that for pedestrians and so on. And we couldn't get the reliability of detection and tracking | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:24:56.880 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | up to a high enough level, particularly in bad weather conditions, nighttime, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:25:03.120 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | rainfall. Good enough for demos, but perhaps not good enough to cover the general operation. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:25:10.800 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Yeah. So the thing about driving is, you know, suppose you're a taxi driver, you know, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:25:15.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | and you drive every day, eight hours a day for 10 years, right? That's 100 million seconds of | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:25:19.680 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | driving, you know, and any one of those seconds, you can make a fatal mistake. So you're talking | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:25:25.200 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | about eight nines of reliability, right? Now, if your vision system only detects 98.3% of the | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:25:30.560 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | vehicles, right, then that's sort of, you know, one in a bit nines of reliability. So you have | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:25:40.080 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | another seven orders of magnitude to go. And this is what people don't understand. They think, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:25:47.200 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | oh, because I had a successful demo, I'm pretty much done. But you're not even within seven orders | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:25:54.560 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | of magnitude of being done. And that's the difficulty. And it's not the, can I follow a | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:26:01.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | white line? That's not the problem, right? We follow a white line all the way across the country. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:26:09.760 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | But it's the weird stuff that happens. It's all the edge cases, yeah. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:26:16.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | The edge case, other drivers doing weird things. You know, so if you talk to Google, right, so | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:26:22.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | they had actually a very classical architecture where, you know, you had machine vision which | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:26:29.200 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | would detect all the other cars and pedestrians and the white lines and the road signs. And then | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:26:35.600 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | basically that was fed into a logical database. And then you had a classical 1970s rule based | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:26:41.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | expert system telling you, okay, if you're in the middle lane and there's a bicyclist in the right | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:26:48.880 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | lane who is signaling this, then you do that, right? And what they found was that every day | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:26:55.360 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | they'd go out and there'd be another situation that the rules didn't cover. You know, so they'd | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:27:02.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | come to a traffic circle and there's a little girl riding her bicycle the wrong way around | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:27:06.560 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | the traffic circle. Okay, what do you do? We don't have a rule. Oh my God. Okay, stop. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:27:10.880 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And then, you know, they come back and add more rules and they just found that this was not really | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:27:14.720 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | converging. And if you think about it, right, how do you deal with an unexpected situation, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:27:20.560 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | meaning one that you've never previously encountered and the sort of reasoning required | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:27:28.240 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | to figure out the solution for that situation has never been done. It doesn't match any previous | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:27:35.600 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | situation in terms of the kind of reasoning you have to do. Well, you know, in chess programs, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:27:41.200 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | this happens all the time, right? You're constantly coming up with situations you haven't | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:27:46.560 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | seen before and you have to reason about them and you have to think about, okay, here are the | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:27:51.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | possible things I could do. Here are the outcomes. Here's how desirable the outcomes are and then | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:27:56.480 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | pick the right one. You know, in the 90s, we were saying, okay, this is how you're going to have to | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:28:01.680 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | do automated vehicles. They're going to have to have a look ahead capability, but the look ahead | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:28:05.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | for driving is more difficult than it is for chess because there's humans and they're less | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:28:10.880 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | predictable than chess pieces. Well, then you have an opponent in chess who's also somewhat | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:28:18.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | unpredictable. But for example, in chess, you always know the opponent's intention. They're | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:28:23.840 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | trying to beat you, right? Whereas in driving, you don't know is this guy trying to turn left | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:28:29.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | or has he just forgotten to turn off his turn signal or is he drunk or is he changing the | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:28:36.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | channel on his radio or whatever it might be. You've got to try and figure out the mental state, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:28:42.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | the intent of the other drivers to forecast the possible evolutions of their trajectories. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:28:47.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And then you've got to figure out, okay, which is the trajectory for me that's going to be safest. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:28:54.880 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And those all interact with each other because the other drivers are going to react to your | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:29:00.400 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | trajectory and so on. So, you know, they've got the classic merging onto the freeway problem where | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:29:04.720 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | you're kind of racing a vehicle that's already on the freeway and you're going to pull ahead of | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:29:10.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | them or you're going to let them go first and pull in behind and you get this sort of uncertainty | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:29:15.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | about who's going first. So all those kinds of things mean that you need a decision making | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:29:19.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | architecture that's very different from either a rule based system or it seems to me kind of an | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:29:29.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | end to end neural network system. So just as AlphaGo is pretty good when it doesn't do any | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:29:37.200 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | look ahead, but it's way, way, way, way better when it does, I think the same is going to be | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:29:43.840 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | true for driving. You can have a driving system that's pretty good when it doesn't do any look | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:29:49.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | ahead, but that's not good enough. And we've already seen multiple deaths caused by poorly | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:29:55.120 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | designed machine learning algorithms that don't really understand what they're doing. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:30:03.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Yeah. On several levels, I think on the perception side, there's mistakes being made by those | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:30:09.360 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | algorithms where the perception is very shallow. On the planning side, the look ahead, like you | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:30:16.480 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | said, and the thing that we come up against that's really interesting when you try to deploy systems | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:30:21.200 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | in the real world is you can't think of an artificial intelligence system as a thing that | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:30:31.200 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | responds to the world always. You have to realize that it's an agent that others will respond to as | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:30:36.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | well. So in order to drive successfully, you can't just try to do obstacle avoidance. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:30:41.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Right. You can't pretend that you're invisible, right? You're the invisible car. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:30:47.680 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Right. It doesn't work that way. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:30:51.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | I mean, but you have to assert yet others have to be scared of you. Just we're all, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:30:53.440 |
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