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Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | this is how we conceive of the problem. And it's the wrong problem because we cannot specify | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:42:59.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | with certainty the correct objective, right? We need uncertainty, we need the machine to be | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:43:07.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | uncertain about what it is that it's supposed to be maximising. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:43:13.840 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Favourite idea of yours, I've heard you say somewhere, well, I shouldn't pick favourites, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:43:18.080 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | but it just sounds beautiful, we need to teach machines humility. It's a beautiful way to put it, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:43:23.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | I love it. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:43:31.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | That they're humble, they know that they don't know what it is they're supposed to be doing, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:43:32.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | and that those objectives, I mean, they exist, they're within us, but we may not be able to | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:43:39.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | we may not be able to explicate them, we may not even know how we want our future to go. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:43:47.200 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Exactly. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:43:56.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And the machine, a machine that's uncertain is going to be deferential to us. So if we say, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:43:58.240 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | don't do that, well, now the machines learn something a bit more about our true objectives, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:44:06.800 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | because something that it thought was reasonable in pursuit of our objective, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:44:11.840 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | turns out not to be, so now it's learned something. So it's going to defer because | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:44:16.480 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | it wants to be doing what we really want. And that point, I think, is absolutely central | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:44:20.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | to solving the control problem. And it's a different kind of AI when you take away this | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:44:30.240 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | idea that the objective is known, then in fact, a lot of the theoretical frameworks that we're so | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:44:37.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | familiar with, you know, Markov decision processes, goal based planning, you know, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:44:44.560 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | standard games research, all of these techniques actually become inapplicable. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:44:53.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And you get a more complicated problem because now the interaction with the human becomes part | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:44:59.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | of the problem. Because the human by making choices is giving you more information about | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:45:11.360 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | the true objective and that information helps you achieve the objective better. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:45:21.200 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And so that really means that you're mostly dealing with game theoretic problems where | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:45:26.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | you've got the machine and the human and they're coupled together, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:45:31.840 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | rather than a machine going off by itself with a fixed objective. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:45:35.840 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | LW. Which is fascinating on the machine and the human level that we, when you don't have an | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:45:39.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | objective, means you're together coming up with an objective. I mean, there's a lot of philosophy | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:45:46.800 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | that, you know, you could argue that life doesn't really have meaning. We together agree on what | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:45:53.120 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | gives it meaning and we kind of culturally create things that give why the heck we are on this earth | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:45:58.880 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | anyway. We together as a society create that meaning and you have to learn that objective. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:46:05.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And one of the biggest, I thought that's where you were going to go for a second, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:46:11.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | one of the biggest troubles we run into outside of statistics and machine learning and AI | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:46:15.760 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | and just human civilization is when you look at, I came from, I was born in the Soviet Union | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:46:21.200 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | and the history of the 20th century, we ran into the most trouble, us humans, when there was a | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:46:28.080 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | certainty about the objective and you do whatever it takes to achieve that objective, whether you're | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:46:36.320 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | talking about Germany or communist Russia. You get into trouble with humans. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:46:41.200 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | I would say with, you know, corporations, in fact, some people argue that, you know, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:46:47.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | we don't have to look forward to a time when AI systems take over the world. They already have | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:46:52.400 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | and they call corporations, right? That corporations happen to be using people as | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:46:57.200 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | components right now, but they are effectively algorithmic machines and they're optimizing | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:47:03.760 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | an objective, which is quarterly profit that isn't aligned with overall wellbeing of the human race. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:47:10.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And they are destroying the world. They are primarily responsible for our inability to tackle | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:47:17.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | climate change. So I think that's one way of thinking about what's going on with corporations, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:47:23.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | but I think the point you're making is valid that there are many systems in the real world where | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:47:30.240 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | we've sort of prematurely fixed on the objective and then decoupled the machine from those that's | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:47:39.680 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | supposed to be serving. And I think you see this with government, right? Government is supposed to | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:47:48.480 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | be a machine that serves people, but instead it tends to be taken over by people who have their | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:47:54.800 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | own objective and use government to optimize that objective regardless of what people want. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:48:02.720 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Do you find appealing the idea of almost arguing machines where you have multiple AI systems with | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:48:09.120 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | a clear fixed objective. We have in government, the red team and the blue team, they're very fixed on | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:48:16.080 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | their objectives and they argue and they kind of may disagree, but it kind of seems to make it | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:48:22.480 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | work somewhat that the duality of it. Okay. Let's go a hundred years back when there was still was | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:48:29.760 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | going on or at the founding of this country, there was disagreements and that disagreement is where, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:48:39.680 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | so it was a balance between certainty and forced humility because the power was distributed. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:48:46.480 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Yeah. I think that the nature of debate and disagreement argument takes as a premise, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:48:53.840 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | the idea that you could be wrong, which means that you're not necessarily absolutely convinced | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:49:04.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | that your objective is the correct one. If you were absolutely convinced, there'd be no point | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:49:12.320 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | in having any discussion or argument because you would never change your mind and there wouldn't | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:49:19.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | be any sort of synthesis or anything like that. I think you can think of argumentation as an | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:49:24.080 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | implementation of a form of uncertain reasoning. I've been reading recently about utilitarianism | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:49:32.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | and the history of efforts to define in a sort of clear mathematical way, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:49:44.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | if you like a formula for moral or political decision making. It's really interesting that | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:49:53.600 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | the parallels between the philosophical discussions going back 200 years and what you see now in | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:50:00.400 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | discussions about existential risk because it's almost exactly the same. Someone would say, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:50:07.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | okay, well here's a formula for how we should make decisions. Utilitarianism is roughly each | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:50:14.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | person has a utility function and then we make decisions to maximize the sum of everybody's | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:50:20.720 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | utility. Then people point out, well, in that case, the best policy is one that leads to | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:50:27.120 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | the enormously vast population, all of whom are living a life that's barely worth living. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:50:36.480 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | This is called the repugnant conclusion. Another version is that we should maximize | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:50:44.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | pleasure and that's what we mean by utility. Then you'll get people effectively saying, well, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:50:50.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | in that case, we might as well just have everyone hooked up to a heroin drip. They didn't use those | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:50:57.840 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | words, but that debate was happening in the 19th century as it is now about AI that if we get the | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:51:03.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | formula wrong, we're going to have AI systems working towards an outcome that in retrospect | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:51:11.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | would be exactly wrong. Do you think there's, as beautifully put, so the echoes are there, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:51:20.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | but do you think, I mean, if you look at Sam Harris, our imagination worries about the AI | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:51:26.400 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | version of that because of the speed at which the things going wrong in the utilitarian context | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:51:32.880 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | could happen. Is that a worry for you? Yeah. I think that in most cases, not in all, but if we | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:51:44.080 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | have a wrong political idea, we see it starting to go wrong and we're not completely stupid and so | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:51:53.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | we say, okay, maybe that was a mistake. Let's try something different. Also, we're very slow and | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:52:00.560 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | inefficient about implementing these things and so on. So you have to worry when you have | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:52:09.600 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | corporations or political systems that are extremely efficient. But when we look at AI systems | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:52:14.800 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | or even just computers in general, they have this different characteristic from ordinary | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:52:22.240 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | human activity in the past. So let's say you were a surgeon, you had some idea about how to do some | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:52:29.760 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | operation. Well, and let's say you were wrong, that way of doing the operation would mostly | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:52:36.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | kill the patient. Well, you'd find out pretty quickly, like after three, maybe three or four | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:52:42.400 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | tries. But that isn't true for pharmaceutical companies because they don't do three or four | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:52:49.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | operations. They manufacture three or four billion pills and they sell them and then they find out | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:53:00.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | maybe six months or a year later that, oh, people are dying of heart attacks or getting cancer from | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:53:05.840 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | this drug. And so that's why we have the FDA, right? Because of the scalability of pharmaceutical | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:53:11.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | production. And there have been some unbelievably bad episodes in the history of pharmaceuticals | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:53:18.720 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | and adulteration of products and so on that have killed tens of thousands or paralyzed hundreds | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:53:29.840 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | of thousands of people. Now with computers, we have that same scalability problem that you can | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:53:36.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | sit there and type for I equals one to five billion do, right? And all of a sudden you're | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:53:43.760 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | having an impact on a global scale. And yet we have no FDA, right? There's absolutely no controls | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:53:49.760 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | at all over what a bunch of undergraduates with too much caffeine can do to the world. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:53:56.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And we look at what happened with Facebook, well, social media in general and click through | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:54:03.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | optimization. So you have a simple feedback algorithm that's trying to just optimize click | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:54:10.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | through, right? That sounds reasonable, right? Because you don't want to be feeding people ads | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:54:18.720 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | that they don't care about or not interested in. And you might even think of that process as | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:54:24.400 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | simply adjusting the feeding of ads or news articles or whatever it might be | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:54:33.840 |
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