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Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | to match people's preferences, right? Which sounds like a good idea. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:54:41.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | But in fact, that isn't how the algorithm works, right? You make more money, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:54:47.360 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | the algorithm makes more money if it can better predict what people are going to click on, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:54:54.080 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | because then it can feed them exactly that, right? So the way to maximize click through | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:55:01.200 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | is actually to modify the people to make them more predictable. And one way to do that is to | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:55:07.680 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | feed them information, which will change their behavior and preferences towards extremes that | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:55:16.320 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | make them predictable. Whatever is the nearest extreme or the nearest predictable point, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:55:23.600 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | that's where you're going to end up. And the machines will force you there. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:55:29.200 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And I think there's a reasonable argument to say that this, among other things, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:55:35.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | is contributing to the destruction of democracy in the world. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:55:40.240 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And where was the oversight of this process? Where were the people saying, okay, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:55:47.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | you would like to apply this algorithm to 5 billion people on the face of the earth. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:55:52.720 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Can you show me that it's safe? Can you show me that it won't have various kinds of negative | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:55:58.560 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | effects? No, there was no one asking that question. There was no one placed between | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:56:03.760 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | the undergrads with too much caffeine and the human race. They just did it. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:56:11.120 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | But some way outside the scope of my knowledge, so economists would argue that the, what is it, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:56:16.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | the invisible hand, so the capitalist system, it was the oversight. So if you're going to corrupt | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:56:22.800 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | society with whatever decision you make as a company, then that's going to be reflected in | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:56:29.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | people not using your product. That's one model of oversight. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:56:33.600 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | We shall see, but in the meantime, but you might even have broken the political system | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:56:38.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | that enables capitalism to function. Well, you've changed it. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:56:48.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | We shall see. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:56:53.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Change is often painful. So my question is absolutely, it's fascinating. You're absolutely | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:56:54.960 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | right that there was zero oversight on algorithms that can have a profound civilization changing | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:57:01.360 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | effect. So do you think it's possible? I mean, I haven't, have you seen government? So do you | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:57:09.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | think it's possible to create regulatory bodies oversight over AI algorithms, which are inherently | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:57:15.840 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | such cutting edge set of ideas and technologies? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:57:24.400 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Yeah, but I think it takes time to figure out what kind of oversight, what kinds of controls. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:57:28.400 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | I mean, it took time to design the FDA regime, you know, and some people still don't like it and | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:57:35.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | they want to fix it. And I think there are clear ways that it could be improved. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:57:40.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | But the whole notion that you have stage one, stage two, stage three, and here are the criteria | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:57:46.960 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | for what you have to do to pass a stage one trial, right? We haven't even thought about what those | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:57:51.680 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | would be for algorithms. So, I mean, I think there are things we could do right now with regard to | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:57:58.320 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | bias, for example, we have a pretty good technical handle on how to detect algorithms that are | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:58:07.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | propagating bias that exists in data sets, how to de bias those algorithms, and even what it's going | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:58:15.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | to cost you to do that. So I think we could start having some standards on that. I think there are | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:58:22.960 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | things to do with impersonation and falsification that we could work on. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:58:30.320 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Fakes, yeah. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:58:37.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | A very simple point. So impersonation is a machine acting as if it was a person. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:58:38.400 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | I can't see a real justification for why we shouldn't insist that machines self identify | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:58:46.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | as machines. Where is the social benefit in fooling people into thinking that this is really | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:58:53.200 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | a person when it isn't? I don't mind if it uses a human like voice, that's easy to understand, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:59:02.800 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | that's fine, but it should just say, I'm a machine in some form. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:59:09.360 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And how many people are speaking to that? I would think relatively obvious facts. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:59:14.960 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Yeah, I mean, there is actually a law in California that bans impersonation, but only in certain | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:59:20.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | restricted circumstances. So for the purpose of engaging in a fraudulent transaction and for the | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:59:27.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | purpose of modifying someone's voting behavior. So those are the circumstances where machines have | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:59:36.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | to self identify. But I think arguably, it should be in all circumstances. And | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:59:44.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | then when you talk about deep fakes, we're just at the beginning, but already it's possible to | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:59:51.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | make a movie of anybody saying anything in ways that are pretty hard to detect. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#00:59:58.480 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Including yourself because you're on camera now and your voice is coming through with high | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:00:05.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | resolution. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:00:09.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Yeah, so you could take what I'm saying and replace it with pretty much anything else you | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:00:09.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | wanted me to be saying. And it's a very simple thing. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:00:13.600 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Take what I'm saying and replace it with pretty much anything else you wanted me to be saying. And | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:00:17.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | even it would change my lips and facial expressions to fit. And there's actually not much | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:00:21.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | in the way of real legal protection against that. I think in the commercial area, you could say, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:00:30.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | yeah, you're using my brand and so on. There are rules about that. But in the political sphere, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:00:38.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | I think at the moment, anything goes. That could be really, really damaging. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:00:45.600 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And let me just try to make not an argument, but try to look back at history and say something dark | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:00:53.840 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | in essence is while regulation seems to be, oversight seems to be exactly the right thing to | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:01:04.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | do here. It seems that human beings, what they naturally do is they wait for something to go | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:01:10.240 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | wrong. If you're talking about nuclear weapons, you can't talk about nuclear weapons being dangerous | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:01:15.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | until somebody actually like the United States drops the bomb or Chernobyl melting. Do you think | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:01:21.840 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | we will have to wait for things going wrong in a way that's obviously damaging to society, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:01:28.720 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | not an existential risk, but obviously damaging? Or do you have faith that... | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:01:36.880 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | I hope not, but I think we do have to look at history. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:01:43.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | And so the two examples you gave, nuclear weapons and nuclear power are very, very interesting | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:01:49.840 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | because nuclear weapons, we knew in the early years of the 20th century that atoms contained | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:01:57.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | a huge amount of energy. We had E equals MC squared. We knew the mass differences between | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:02:07.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | the different atoms and their components. And we knew that | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:02:12.880 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | you might be able to make an incredibly powerful explosive. So HG Wells wrote science fiction book, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:02:17.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | I think in 1912. Frederick Soddy, who was the guy who discovered isotopes, the Nobel prize winner, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:02:23.760 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | he gave a speech in 1915 saying that one pound of this new explosive would be the equivalent | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:02:31.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | of 150 tons of dynamite, which turns out to be about right. And this was in World War I, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:02:40.400 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | so he was imagining how much worse the world war would be if we were using that kind of explosive. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:02:48.320 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | But the physics establishment simply refused to believe that these things could be made. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:02:56.160 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Including the people who are making it. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:03:04.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Well, so they were doing the nuclear physics. I mean, eventually were the ones who made it. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:03:05.760 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | You talk about Fermi or whoever. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:03:11.200 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | Well, so up to the development was mostly theoretical. So it was people using sort of | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:03:13.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | primitive kinds of particle acceleration and doing experiments at the level of single particles | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:03:22.240 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | or collections of particles. They weren't yet thinking about how to actually make a bomb or | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:03:29.440 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | anything like that. But they knew the energy was there and they figured if they understood it | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:03:37.280 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | better, it might be possible. But the physics establishment, their view, and I think because | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:03:40.640 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | they did not want it to be true, their view was that it could not be true. That this could not | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:03:47.040 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | not provide a way to make a super weapon. And there was this famous speech given by Rutherford, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:03:54.320 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | who was the sort of leader of nuclear physics. And it was on September 11th, 1933. And he said, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:04:03.520 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | anyone who talks about the possibility of obtaining energy from transformation of atoms | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:04:11.840 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | is talking complete moonshine. And the next morning, Leo Szilard read about that speech | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:04:17.760 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | and then invented the nuclear chain reaction. And so as soon as he invented, as soon as he had that | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:04:26.080 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | idea that you could make a chain reaction with neutrons, because neutrons were not repelled by | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:04:32.880 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | the nucleus, so they could enter the nucleus and then continue the reaction. As soon as he has that | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:04:38.560 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | idea, he instantly realized that the world was in deep doo doo. Because this is 1933, right? Hitler | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:04:44.240 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | had recently come to power in Germany. Szilard was in London and eventually became a refugee | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:04:54.400 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | and came to the US. And in the process of having the idea about the chain reaction, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:05:04.000 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | he figured out basically how to make a bomb and also how to make a reactor. And he patented the | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:05:11.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | reactor in 1934. But because of the situation, the great power conflict situation that he could see | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:05:18.960 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | happening, he kept that a secret. And so between then and the beginning of World War II, people | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:05:27.920 |
Stuart Russell: Long-Term Future of Artificial Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #9 | were working, including the Germans, on how to actually create neutron sources, what specific | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0009-large.html#01:05:39.920 |
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