sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
51072f1149571c4a08d2f841a66c806d35eb155b | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x2810294fd661eae12ca2d889d9126fbf6716b8209ff11ec719989ede5766a534 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | istanbul-mayoral-election-2024-which-party-will-win | Istanbul Mayoral Election 2024: Will CHP win? | 55,400,557 | 55,400,557 |
c62ce941445adc15595e1f46e9d912c5e1eaf955 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x2f9028fa6ff25a0abfd07b420714142a1b403f74e87753447629e821d761e50c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 0.999996 | south-korea-election-which-party-wins-the-most-seats | Will the PPP win the most seats in the South Korean election? | 55,700,450 | 55,700,450 |
d5802b6d38aea057b2d051c5c1d1aa560131ae70 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x92b7766d144e1670924646a23c44ff314b804f253539cba5de53aa496b6e373c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 0.999984 | first-place-in-california-senate-primary | Will Steve Garvey get first place in the California Senate Primary? | 55,778,742 | 55,778,742 |
64d85d5c04cf5636456f7176a60653ae081c3346 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xbb1a187568240a58bc243c6cd4c15ed43b8fd4a98536257910759625b56de996 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-april | Will the US gain less than 150k jobs in April? | 56,535,003 | 56,535,003 |
f318623e3db8fb3d7ebcf926402a9c7142f8441f | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x23a28690a44b5f15dfdb52a7d5990946b03cdc94a0bb0b684aaaa6e0974f21f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | panama-presidential-election-winner | Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | 56,637,690 | 56,637,690 |
8b046be2ffe0cadf192f22841900e1b8ffaf91b5 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x1c581d15d1aa3c1f19a7b97bbf5c0cdf0bb799a5b99df5b584a52f247cba432f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | no | 1 | panama-presidential-election-winner | Panama Presidential Election: Will Ricardo Lombana win? | 56,639,303 | 56,639,303 |
ba2eac363498ed5785e3d226515f11c35d5ac346 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x2e8586516362be4e6b96da59cc10c50410fa44a21e6054c696a59b93de9cf774 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | dominican-republic-presidential-election-winner | Will Luis Abinader win the 2024 Dominican Republic presidential election? | 57,184,297 | 57,184,297 |
89b6acc3ad4420904ed66e05c4a54ebd4b9a92af | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x752a37b21dac984692e419b3ca97fa1c989b2c3fa6b8a69b331bcafc897ca502 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-california-special-election-to-supersede-mccarthy | Will Vince Fong win CA-20 Special Election? | 57,251,591 | 57,251,591 |
1f5bfc8c9d797eb85e2d39c5011ffe0e6e4deba2 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xe88e8e620c7909a760072e04c24bdbfbc2c7b1941bf8cd96ce8c578cfc380ffd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | lithuanian-presidential-election-winner | Will Gitanas Nauseda win the 2024 Lithuanian presidential election? | 57,440,976 | 57,440,976 |
9482c673334e2b05a51f32ca2904689b001829cc | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xd2c10628e74b85fae2c89b7a63642960d53bd7533652e076b339e7d6b32f319f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | no | 1 | mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Mexican Presidential Election: Will Xóchitl Gálvez win? | 57,955,595 | 57,955,595 |
387e7be769795fcbf65c58185137058705e66367 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x18da960befbced211f76cbefaeebe98b216f5c6f43dd3eff0219e66f75986769 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | no | 1 | utah-senate-republican-primary-winner | Will Trent Staggs win the Utah Republican Primary? | 58,622,432 | 58,622,432 |
1a36e3d2afaa3e1f0248df36bc9a5fe55b0c62dd | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xa170badb9aa75ead683a8bcdc8be678426ffb400579b12fd6d2f19d8f6dc0e79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | uk-elections-who-will-win-most-seats | Labour wins the most seats in next UK election? | 59,015,932 | 59,015,932 |
31d3c619825790ec7ce57f4976701d802ca6ce22 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xc04aea26c2ccf07fe583dcde85a4f83267e28261c44dc8783aa049feb4b3577a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | no | 1 | how-many-seats-will-new-popular-front-coalition-win-in-french-election | Will New Popular Front win 250+ seats? | 59,098,077 | 59,098,077 |
8a753b5d1c00b010bc470f2c4fb4482c9f34ad95 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xbee8ad7c4426457188996e102556c2826e0f7d7039f88548f61b8bcda3b9de44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | how-many-seats-will-national-rally-coalition-win-in-french-election | Will National Rally win less than 175 seats? | 59,100,925 | 59,100,925 |
f201d63d1437ab143c4386e49fee478a73efd520 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x5acad359612174a78b4815a95412aff62fa35ef3411e1bd59fa2fdf7b7699601 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | republican-vp-nominee | Will Nancy Mace win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,425,909 | 59,425,909 |
a080aacd42b093dcf39eca18843507554d2e4358 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xfee7cb9350806e31ebd3d9ed6cedb4cd4f9aa600ff556a9e072067891b0327a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | no | 1 | when-will-biden-drop-out | Will Biden drop out on July 21? | 59,703,180 | 59,703,180 |
113c4ea8b193c31e252043ff9339ee2e0f555716 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x2660c455563febb3aac5ba430f54fca146ee18700cb9049504a32ddefa14ec2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | fl-13-democratic-primary-winner | Will Whitney Fox win the FL-13 Democratic primary? | 60,848,217 | 60,848,217 |
f2d7f27cbef063c18de110ca7167c8dcf9a9bcda | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x34e309581ef62fea969e3e4ca8729878e646fc589aeec6f1f63ecfa7e8220f01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-rcp-polling-margin-on-aug-30 | Will Kamala lead by 0-0.9 August 30? | 61,241,276 | 61,241,276 |
0f039500ec3cdd280aa5c6185e4d8af1b8281e5d | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xc54b43c12303b1701e5dfa816a83e7785f4695078e0c8c9ce971d5c1eebb18bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | no | 1 | italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the Italian Grand Prix? | 61,322,840 | 61,322,840 |
c019fd50c98c16caf11e08574d7c5c3f8cd74016 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x49528c968ba3186caafd7d46add66da6daf748f5c1483337cf899c706fb36717 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's giveaway tweet be the most reposted of all time? | Event: how-many-reposts-will-mrbeasts-250k-giveaway-get | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-6 | Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 6? | 61,520,193 | 61,520,193 |
b68b4a0353329bafa93ab7f28b1f497492ade818 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xc12eef18c8fa948315f743772bbcf530eaea1f19640c79b5a162f7d90899669a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's giveaway tweet be the most reposted of all time? | Event: how-many-reposts-will-mrbeasts-250k-giveaway-get | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Alexander Stubb win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | third-most-medals-at-2024-paralympics | Will the United States of America win the third most medals in the 2024 Paralympics? | 61,601,344 | 61,601,344 |
d277d2f4e9530ea01c54e461bb18c682dd089e07 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xb960e91611534bdac212f67557fa5fd93caec8ba352681bb4c4d408d0e1be5c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Alexander Stubb win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 30-40% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-michigan-primary | Choice: yes | Con... | yes | 1 | delaware-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Will Matt Meyer win the 2024 Delaware Governor Democratic Primary? | 61,682,625 | 61,682,625 |
4e4749d544d3a19f6ef5177b0e30c4cdf9728d34 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xc7b2b657bb93f14f3aea1d986da4cb5cee3ecfd90685d284cf6396c97612a17f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 30-40% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-michigan-primary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 40-50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-michigan-primary | Choice... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2-2.4 September 13? | 61,801,374 | 61,801,374 |
75dee7b0fb97fe87081fd4edfab850cc49a140fa | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xcdafbbf6a7084713f5f7962316b60bdebcbba27554b37474917e11a8a9d82a7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 40-50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-michigan-primary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Massachusetts be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday? | Event: trumps-worst-state-on-super-tuesday | Choice: yes | Confide... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-sept-20 | Will Kamala lead by 0.6-1.0 or more points on September 20? | 62,083,576 | 62,083,576 |
a15566ff291d65c2c6cb03f06cb2d4ea3ced1d4a | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x39e3f2dff22404bca286d4aa0c2027a37f3da97a6760be3bb129c986f145e4ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Massachusetts be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday? | Event: trumps-worst-state-on-super-tuesday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Virginia be... | yes | 1 | sri-lanka-presidential-election-winner | Will Anura Dissanayake win the Sri Lankan presidential election? | 62,160,857 | 62,160,857 |
7f003f2ce8db896b5278081b5511aaec9429d53e | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x591fb194a3fdfa77506e79602af103ba16ca5663ac2b16ec4d96c2f1a30466f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Virginia be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday? | Event: trumps-worst-state-on-super-tuesday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain 250k-300... | yes | 1 | sri-lanka-presidential-election-winner | Will Sajith Premadasa win the Sri Lankan presidential election? | 62,160,857 | 62,160,857 |
5867b9d0d5110ed0e09484a2dca3a006f0170b43 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x88a93fcf27305efcb168f7b56e4870acc3271c6b1948009e2704977b3c83063d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Virginia be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday? | Event: trumps-worst-state-on-super-tuesday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain less tha... | no | 1 | esl-counterstrike-champion-2024 | Will Natus Vincere win ESL Counter-Strike Champion 2024? | 62,160,857 | 62,160,857 |
08eb2b2e123b6d7c3d6b8c20820391a7fd7634b8 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xa5f26db1db70bd1d53ab107c12872bfbe930dc38280400e4b59fea24c20650af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain less than 200k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain 200k-250k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the Singapore Grand Prix? | 62,166,215 | 62,166,215 |
f4c760cdaa91c7f872498a6b95489c2850032095 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x6632fc24e5c917cf5972a36b3a28f25b89759d2624b17badb1cea4bef1bf7f98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain less than 200k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 200k-250k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Istanbul Mayoral Election 2024: Wi... | no | 1 | who-wins-most-votes-in-brandenburg-election | Will AfD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election? | 62,174,123 | 62,174,123 |
c68ad7ef2fccd290aa6e698094e00129dc9634d2 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xc7fdf2f2f2975b5aad279aab1d6b19e684f9dbeeb7b338e861902a41e8d0d246 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 200k-250k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Istanbul Mayoral Election 2024: Will CHP win? | Event: istanbul-mayoral-election-2024-which-party-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the PPP w... | no | 1 | who-wins-most-votes-in-brandenburg-election | Will SPD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election? | 62,174,123 | 62,174,123 |
ed4faf999c40e951a3124a2640192451cae4ee38 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x3aa708e6a0bf1be624aad574f7461fc8be0c60a51e85acdb0dfdba4141a6f289 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Istanbul Mayoral Election 2024: Will CHP win? | Event: istanbul-mayoral-election-2024-which-party-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the PPP win the most seats in the South Korean election? | Event: south-korea-election-which-party-wins-the-most-seats | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday | Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2-2.4 on Sept 27? | 62,366,383 | 62,366,383 |
b452559d9de566bbf7c3a703b959bf45187e8258 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x494465eee4808f4e6617145551d79731d6a886a554086a04d9bcaef7d6b8b130 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the PPP win the most seats in the South Korean election? | Event: south-korea-election-which-party-wins-the-most-seats | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999962240071291
2. Question: Will Steve Garvey get first place in the California Senate Primary? | Event: first-place-in-california-senate... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday | Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2.5-2.9 on Sept 27? | 62,366,383 | 62,366,383 |
721138c8407aa258ef20b867cd251a0e43599b86 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x4b2fc76dcb4b99c20f272ff1fccc84928d4f7de8561800a77f50458a1c60586c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Steve Garvey get first place in the California Senate Primary? | Event: first-place-in-california-senate-primary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999837921313486
2. Question: Will the US gain less than 150k jobs in April? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-april | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday | Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1.5-1.9 on Sept 27? | 62,366,383 | 62,366,383 |
c74a46ef890c772f9592858605dfbb6a263ffd0f | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xb039c209708077b77152adfb987d932bc813c15ad1931d53f172267b6bb3f164 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US gain less than 150k jobs in April? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-april | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Panama Presidenti... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday | Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 27? | 62,366,383 | 62,366,383 |
a89f4d8d8b9dd15b105ffb3af4aa4a54c50e8839 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x2e87fd6d0acf2bf174d921fe6ad7be6e9f70ba0a55f46914661d8baef8967d10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Jose Raul Mulino win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Ricardo Lombana win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-the-most-seats-austrian-legislative-election | Will ÖVP win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election? | 62,443,890 | 62,443,890 |
452d00634b68a3f93b33a4a451c7224ccbb13578 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xa7a9316a2a86e4c1e2cce4449dda5b548ed00ed8ac2a990ce345227601708094 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panama Presidential Election: Will Ricardo Lombana win? | Event: panama-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Abinader win the 2024 Dominican Republic presidential election? | Event: dominican-republic-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-september | US adds ore than 250k jobs in September? | 62,628,424 | 62,628,424 |
4c20d1785ea410eff32856f5c4376df9ade4217f | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x6e7017efe0a83c77e19bcdf61f8c4014a13a3f4ed77a5694f15113acc26260a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Abinader win the 2024 Dominican Republic presidential election? | Event: dominican-republic-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vince Fong win CA-20 Special Election? | Event: who-will-win-california-special-election-to-supersede-mccarthy |... | yes | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-friday-oct-4 | Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2-2.4 on Oct 4? | 62,641,007 | 62,641,007 |
b716875af73a83c82564c94bc06b23ba6cd7193c | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xce49840450b4444dd44cc51a53f74c68ac3b243adec49c24047baa16e9ba7ae6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vince Fong win CA-20 Special Election? | Event: who-will-win-california-special-election-to-supersede-mccarthy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gitanas Nauseda win the 2024 Lithuanian presidential election? | Event: lithuanian-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-friday-oct-4 | Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1.5-1.9 on Oct 4? | 62,641,012 | 62,641,012 |
6ccaec8931b7c632fdeb703e01236cb4055923af | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xe5a233c7358326318cea1f73e8dba6500abd556f65cce4e85d09afe07374dfe8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gitanas Nauseda win the 2024 Lithuanian presidential election? | Event: lithuanian-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will Xóchitl Gálvez win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 1 | so-paulo-mayoral-election-2024 | Will Pablo Marçal win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? | 62,731,032 | 62,731,032 |
775614d49f17ab5b2de49e28121b95b5c9405fc4 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x56a64d561cad7e26a4f39cee89535d1f298c454529c29fdc720e3a86020f9b0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mexican Presidential Election: Will Xóchitl Gálvez win? | Event: mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trent Staggs win the Utah Republican Primary? | Event: utah-senate-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-11 | Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 11? | 62,927,278 | 62,927,278 |
aa885193481b6f87b976bba7f798d17669b12b85 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x3fd5ee6582611592f5aec9bc8dc670687e49ff1d4d4a4253ec5f8a7e68554ed2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trent Staggs win the Utah Republican Primary? | Event: utah-senate-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Labour wins the most seats in next UK election? | Event: uk-elections-who-will-win-most-seats | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will New Pop... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-next-friday-oct-11 | Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2.5-2.9 on Oct 11? | 62,927,282 | 62,927,282 |
260cf5af08b873b51bc64e1f935ced15c630a71b | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x1365234d58e2cdfe0204d15431db0bd6d53d8a3093f154b762544a10db49179d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Labour wins the most seats in next UK election? | Event: uk-elections-who-will-win-most-seats | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Popular Front win 250+ seats? | Event: how-many-seats-will-new-popular-front-coalition-win-in-french-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-new-brunswick-election | Will PC win the most in the 2024 New Brunswick general election? | 63,337,969 | 63,337,969 |
859f5079d94cbbc8e5f161df59a2849c555c8320 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x9fc36bb7895236ab0dc8424663d986e79cfd64068258da62e631c7bc9d4c4955 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will New Popular Front win 250+ seats? | Event: how-many-seats-will-new-popular-front-coalition-win-in-french-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will National Rally win less than 175 seats? | Event: how-many-seats-will-national-rally-coalition-win-in-french-election | Choice... | yes | 1 | so-paulo-mayoral-election-2024 | Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? | 63,574,288 | 63,574,288 |
128d0a60cb1fca2fded2eee662f5686027f1b4ff | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x5c414c75dd6ec63e94350ba8c5a4db077912b59d86cb1676728b54b23360418e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will National Rally win less than 175 seats? | Event: how-many-seats-will-national-rally-coalition-win-in-french-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nancy Mace win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | so-paulo-mayoral-election-2024 | Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? | 63,575,951 | 63,575,951 |
1c79c151c9fc87f951ffa778e8047812c28a888f | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x3c9a94239a10378f05d313e73734b77f5976ca24fb65711cc86c99d3800a5013 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nancy Mace win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Biden drop out on July 21? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Whitney Fox win the FL-13 Democratic primary? |... | yes | 1 | porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | 63,579,457 | 63,579,457 |
eb4b18761096ea9353e77e60f5787a1cfe40b497 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x401a9b9540ed899ddd8c1452d1fda87f43178f5255f5b7ebe2caab68c09b5ee7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Biden drop out on July 21? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Whitney Fox win the FL-13 Democratic primary? | Event: fl-13-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala lead by 0-0.9 August 30? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-nov-4 | Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.1-0.4 on Nov 4? | 63,895,063 | 63,895,063 |
1625513709a63703448baf32cb947d37640c3727 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x8b6d62510907ffb835b26f6dc52bb0b1effef6a5c9139c89ccc753b9c58fc482 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Whitney Fox win the FL-13 Democratic primary? | Event: fl-13-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala lead by 0-0.9 August 30? | Event: trump-vs-harris-rcp-polling-margin-on-aug-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Oscar Piastri wi... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-nov-4 | Will Harris lead in RCP by 1.5-1.9 on Nov 4? | 63,895,071 | 63,895,071 |
f15435e8e81114898ea2d084389248352425dfec | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xb31067bef802154e2a6fbe1fff825bf2769860dfa829c4bf71463bc357df3023 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead by 0-0.9 August 30? | Event: trump-vs-harris-rcp-polling-margin-on-aug-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the Italian Grand Prix? | Event: italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4... | yes | 1 | west-virginia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win West Virginia Presidential Election? | 63,955,249 | 63,955,249 |
61b85cde107c4ff997845be20a56cced32eabfbd | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x47dc93079a0cb0f7174a61330b3a7eeea3c60f9839a92456452ecfebaa54162c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the Italian Grand Prix? | Event: italian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 6? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the United States of A... | no | 1 | missouri-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Missouri Presidential Election? | 63,955,830 | 63,955,830 |
7d0447d1c4320d46720dc17be4aa7d80fd44a61c | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x05dc75d943d79e61217c3e9cbf3d09000759a241d0cb5b89f7cbd5ddb176880b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 September 6? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the United States of America win the third most medals in the 2024 Paralympics? | Event: third-most-medals-at-2024-paralympics | Choice: yes | Confi... | no | 1 | missouri-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Missouri Presidential Election? | 63,956,132 | 63,956,132 |
c1812953db259c83454cc34f769804b80f4b3930 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x009f3196eb90f47b7eb23e1cc0b06759806df193ec58a0dab081eaabbe8a1310 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the United States of America win the third most medals in the 2024 Paralympics? | Event: third-most-medals-at-2024-paralympics | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Matt Meyer win the 2024 Delaware Governor Democratic Primary? | Event: delaware-governor-democratic-primary-win... | yes | 1 | ohio-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Ohio Presidential Election? | 63,959,263 | 63,959,263 |
2f23cd8e58d814bcba948f6c21051e121d98b0ba | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x7519824e6a81fe711904c58b0f1aca91e6ddcf3d10510eb84d6a26338f025910 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Matt Meyer win the 2024 Delaware Governor Democratic Primary? | Event: delaware-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2-2.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | indiana-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Indiana Presidential Election? | 63,973,366 | 63,973,366 |
de9307f944d96692b9ea53058771ee22e1f262bc | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x6ab85c2c207bb28c6fbaaa35f6437018a455486d2a9aab291ed609da0e057b6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2-2.4 September 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala lead by 0.6-1.0 or more points on September 20? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-sept-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will A... | yes | 1 | sri-lanka-legislative-election | Will the NPP win the most seats in the 2024 Sri Lankan Parliamentary elections? | 64,324,178 | 64,324,178 |
ffd6c2d09a9450ecfab70ca44658402dafd0bb38 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0xe7cded89c72cda0edc499df185618d38ad7252451d8c6592204ca4ae34441d18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers
Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | cavaliers | 1 | nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | 64,542,092 | 64,542,092 |
3c0489fbc3fe435c4a263374f3100593b1b91344 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x9c568a8a5898098c8eda5a9a16322fa78e111fd0c7c5e89319a9b103445a87a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies
Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rat... | grizzlies | 1 | nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | 76ers vs. Grizzlies | 64,546,790 | 64,546,790 |
77c58809a327b9bf4fa94975b26d2cffeed5e338 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0xb93db9ca675f2f902c173f5dd212c57a02576620bd61f9535d2b22a433428396 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Hawks vs. Warriors
Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20
Predict the user's ch... | hawks | 1 | nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Hawks vs. Warriors | 64,546,790 | 64,546,790 |
90c20525d1b5ae56790b28d628436b2a540c0c9c | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x61d37a12a060883b4a1baa7a6e02654748b7017f96ae6d89319a31e3fac5a71c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | hornets | 1 | nba-det-cha-2024-11-21 | Pistons vs. Hornets | 64,582,358 | 64,582,358 |
538b05dee47c7bd61e1ad0be437786849315d54f | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0xe9f8880e15ac51c637961d51057ccfeaf9c05b3202ac968dcabb8ab7f21ce4bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | raptors | 1 | nba-min-tor-2024-11-21 | Timberwolves vs. Raptors | 64,582,517 | 64,582,517 |
cdbe4a2ecac9e034e875879aac97e9a2dcabaad1 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x19f0687aed304b39213fd053ef6fd76cccfafbd3ae0a9a3d22c70b7fc8e96696 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | kings | 1 | nba-sac-lac-2024-11-22 | Kings vs. Clippers | 64,627,258 | 64,627,258 |
80caff665e73b3ee34cc20a2d969519312b8b57c | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0xe36356afa2896d858e2512e215ef8b7ca0afb4874583917c4827941da9b1bd5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | spurs | 1 | nba-gsw-sas-2024-11-23 | Warriors vs. Spurs | 64,663,942 | 64,663,942 |
b3e93dc3895af7343cda9f06e3902d898ee2e81b | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x8c3aa045fb2062cbe23f6a1ab4d2e7186feb201f90536ebf500e7ae7d2859a21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | nuggets | 1 | nba-den-lal-2024-11-23 | Nuggets vs. Lakers | 64,668,350 | 64,668,350 |
1a49a8d2af37ccc40f8f0e9c766290be924da1b3 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x6fc88974e00246cf2cbb58b07ec851b200114146c39a4284bfffdb4495035e8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | thunder | 0.99996 | nba-okc-sac-2024-11-25 | Thunder vs. Kings | 64,746,105 | 64,746,105 |
1a20525e5e5a3e6e673dc3827e25e7dc0a50a2bc | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x5dfcddd86d90b77f78ff330d31567d1c2f2a3623f2828e5bfcf0088050fcbbd1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | nets | 0.018744 | nba-bkn-gsw-2024-11-25 | Nets vs. Warriors | 64,747,681 | 64,747,681 |
a5da13e006059d34522cacc7a84687d920cdeeb9 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0xf80932aa73b00415566f0abe0f1d40406b360ab2cd26ab0fa97b14364517ac11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | bucks | 1 | nba-mil-mia-2024-11-26 | Bucks vs. Heat | 64,781,858 | 64,781,858 |
d1f7cd8311b3e0af9db73f12a17acf97ddb6a4a7 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x228081afc88817581d1a52c9eb30c8e93c6d87f6836df55b92726c2c6a2eaf17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | jazz | 1 | nba-sas-uta-2024-11-26 | Spurs vs. Jazz | 64,783,169 | 64,783,169 |
af96baf88fa7534f5fb1b901720ba2eaee1fd8c4 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x15d7d9526d1c5ac0f108e985affcbcc3ef7cc95b8fa34cb3f8c07bddd7063147 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | cavaliers | 1 | nba-cle-atl-2024-11-29 | Cavaliers vs. Hawks | 64,903,896 | 64,903,896 |
cffe9d2cb91ac75fa58dfa5bf14b739a55d8dd3d | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x16d695831bc0a913fabbef12dcce8d980d9439d117e5c578bbb4728a6e1890ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | pelicans | 1 | nba-nop-mem-2024-11-29 | Pelicans vs. Grizzlies | 64,903,896 | 64,903,896 |
0423e5f853f4c64d77a12c00dc93fc0ea2cdab8d | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0xdec8b2b66b9463e5d186499a187245bc29c985d4daa072c7d13f89890c141a6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | lakers | 1 | nba-okc-lal-2024-11-29 | Thunder vs. Lakers | 64,908,258 | 64,908,258 |
936bdc7ab2102dc608da6f26f5ba4867f2c442ff | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x8b0c35bd69d07a78e7e3d804e4a57f519d1ec68cc329ecb2741335804c0021ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 0.000078 | epl-not-ips-2024-11-30 | Will Ipswich win on 2024-11-30? | 64,926,247 | 64,926,247 |
537b96618c0c4ec9745512aa5318de1644f8f99b | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0xb28b55f7a70d0a5c5910c102b2fbf0d509baaed525968c796766358aeaf7e752 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | epl-not-ips-2024-11-30 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-30? | 64,926,247 | 64,926,247 |
e339e389367c2f9f94f8198d4d8bbe75459cebc4 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x1aff82d1bb2ee07a5f2a09e3ec8da3f53ed6d46ea2b3228cb5cf5b3a563ca371 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 0.000083 | epl-bre-lei-2024-11-30 | Will Brentford vs. Leicester end in a draw? | 64,926,817 | 64,926,817 |
89721b9ab834f756468bb58db2e33d9934184a8a | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x23fe839b59d21d934abe8fa09644570fa56619100e80a3d2eda7c70e445f2911 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 0.000021 | epl-not-ips-2024-11-30 | Will Nottingham Forest vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | 64,926,817 | 64,926,817 |
c0a5d8692bab28aabf75861c2055816426efebea | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0xac19003bc3ff2e70c304c57c41d1814d942acd7eaefc63d5d187e06d218991e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | epl-bre-lei-2024-11-30 | Will Leicester win on 2024-11-30? | 64,926,817 | 64,926,817 |
ab7fd1e62d954e6302abed01911d9ec38c5813c6 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0xb0637c0171594f19feef688e7d2e8d70eb8f0c76383a5137bd03948899c93ecc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 0.901738 | epl-cry-new-2024-11-30 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-30? | 64,926,817 | 64,926,817 |
c438f22315cadff9b0e04c2751fef85c1ed87cf1 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x637a5f495c1592c13f293d96662e54b865a0b3c8f34b7c78c4f26fc6645bc1de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | hawks | 1 | nba-atl-cha-2024-11-30 | Hawks vs. Hornets | 64,943,651 | 64,943,651 |
6a4c87a956c5d9f7c22f71321da71fe32448cf76 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0xc145308704b9f800e35149ba4120f59215bef6ccbbb116684089ecd01344072b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-ars-2024-11-30 | Will West Ham vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | 64,943,651 | 64,943,651 |
4d8a681b8ed8bf3b5e0b09fe1f487c2ee22df957 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0xeedf49438f58b8dbaad3c89ec97a6cd7be30c38b6757c52f812e3909512b949e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 0.000138 | epl-wes-ars-2024-11-30 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-30? | 64,943,651 | 64,943,651 |
0bc2f1fa680c81600042fe0c30137050223db4f8 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0xf6d46620924630920aad970d6790896ed7ba5a88c16e60b3e018ee4ead493b0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | pistons | 1 | nba-phi-det-2024-11-30 | 76ers vs. Pistons | 64,943,651 | 64,943,651 |
4cdf30dc1b45effed24151e10134aef011631577 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x0b4f30c5d28c1deb3c0804b089b4d7a300f323b738fc0814276a2f44b761e1e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 0.987217 | epl-che-ast-2024-12-01 | Will Chelsea vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | 64,963,662 | 64,963,662 |
a3825286b9803162f8c888b831afe0dcf5685e5c | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0xcc4967c95c90fa7138b5197a27a2748c3432191783de2f8b4021212c80548dfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | 64,968,448 | 64,968,448 |
4e09b9b8134ff8d2e617a0c6c73b41f1a436d8a3 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x28564ce767a00dd2b2a2223bcf1b8cf4a0cddf30819cf0ecb93f70c3d0980f87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | pelicans | 1 | nba-nop-atl-2024-12-02 | Pelicans vs. Hawks | 65,022,881 | 65,022,881 |
03136f2f2c49f00f6aa60a019915506746beb8fe | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x2945d6ed6c210484cdb9bda69028eb04b84c2fe9f8a63a323220748538b14a4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | timberwolves | 0.988746 | nba-lal-min-2024-12-02 | Lakers vs. Timberwolves | 65,022,881 | 65,022,881 |
321a7dabda3cfefbc8d29ae60b177fbe73a5f9f0 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x7c591c76117a9d7c8792d7b1467daf850677504e57f03845c848bfa32a241e0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | nets | 0.998879 | nba-bkn-chi-2024-12-02 | Nets vs. Bulls | 65,022,881 | 65,022,881 |
4787a6436a1c58f20cefe82b92c87de4dd66c367 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x7d3536a4d1ace71ce10a9301c954e2a6fe3f85fad3b1adca20a91807c93b3c99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Event: nba-nop-cle-2024-11-20 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0... | heat | 0.999992 | nba-mia-bos-2024-12-02 | Heat vs. Celtics | 65,022,881 | 65,022,881 |
286251d012cf2413377b0e39a62679c01bf80e21 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x19ceeab155ce6a2400b874388d155f6533df7906eaa64f7148d04123453656dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 76ers vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-phi-mem-2024-11-20 | Choice: grizzlies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Hornets | Event: nba-det-cha-2024-11-21 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 1.0
4. Q... | broncos | 1 | nfl-cle-den-2024-12-02 | Browns vs. Broncos | 65,039,098 | 65,039,098 |
83bfacae63e35625f6b523f64d18da287df3bd25 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x027a76de3ec938c2722fb9154b4078c93c45f8e78440a4cd1865d5781298151b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hawks vs. Warriors | Event: nba-atl-gsw-2024-11-20 | Choice: hawks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Pistons vs. Hornets | Event: nba-det-cha-2024-11-21 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Timberwolves vs. Raptors | Event: nba-min-tor-2024-11-21 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
4... | 76ers | 1 | nba-phi-cha-2024-12-03 | 76ers vs. Hornets | 65,066,640 | 65,066,640 |
3482f8445995f11c8d51382ef1bfb29ca1b68ba3 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x54376801ad95230ff6991bcf75ec58654323961ee98cc126d047e72acfee7dc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pistons vs. Hornets | Event: nba-det-cha-2024-11-21 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Raptors | Event: nba-min-tor-2024-11-21 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kings vs. Clippers | Event: nba-sac-lac-2024-11-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
4... | warriors | 1 | nba-gsw-den-2024-12-03 | Warriors vs. Nuggets | 65,066,640 | 65,066,640 |
1c02c8bcb461d32f01b43f2e263215bb19497558 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x64632390f51d5933e0ba653563d38f04931e75253dcb011365d2d4a95523f01c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Timberwolves vs. Raptors | Event: nba-min-tor-2024-11-21 | Choice: raptors | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kings vs. Clippers | Event: nba-sac-lac-2024-11-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Warriors vs. Spurs | Event: nba-gsw-sas-2024-11-23 | Choice: spurs | Confidence: 1.0
4. Q... | no | 0.991416 | epl-eve-wol-2024-12-04 | Will Everton win on 2024-12-04? | 65,093,541 | 65,093,541 |
e6b9b574afd248eb8a986ee6b7c4eb6ee536817b | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x667cdccba3726dad74c7df779523a304044760d19f33016ad0c37e7cb162bfa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kings vs. Clippers | Event: nba-sac-lac-2024-11-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Warriors vs. Spurs | Event: nba-gsw-sas-2024-11-23 | Choice: spurs | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Nuggets vs. Lakers | Event: nba-den-lal-2024-11-23 | Choice: nuggets | Confidence: 1.0
4. Questio... | yes | 0.997012 | epl-eve-wol-2024-12-04 | Will Everton vs. Wolves end in a draw? | 65,093,541 | 65,093,541 |
4bd0e0b0a0d056a3ee1a5e423cb14b8ed945c8dd | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0xd4fc5732e169a4ce50e676e9d6dd35d642da0b359c8e94200f9e30f59640e0ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Warriors vs. Spurs | Event: nba-gsw-sas-2024-11-23 | Choice: spurs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Nuggets vs. Lakers | Event: nba-den-lal-2024-11-23 | Choice: nuggets | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Kings | Event: nba-okc-sac-2024-11-25 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 0.99995951745... | clippers | 0.991079 | nba-min-lac-2024-12-04 | Timberwolves vs. Clippers | 65,110,401 | 65,110,401 |
fce9d460c337ee49b17436d80e443e94fd6251b9 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x79b7bf06ea3da433c50cd395f898ee55537c7d9e86fd7e020066ced99a8f06c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nuggets vs. Lakers | Event: nba-den-lal-2024-11-23 | Choice: nuggets | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Thunder vs. Kings | Event: nba-okc-sac-2024-11-25 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 0.9999595174579842
3. Question: Nets vs. Warriors | Event: nba-bkn-gsw-2024-11-25 | Choice: nets | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.990462 | epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Will Brighton win on 2024-12-05? | 65,134,457 | 65,134,457 |
6e4fb1f05d2468fbc25b1eb7c2aa9d60652cff71 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x7feafa3f1f156980a734def137e086071e02dee8a1567a53ea5e02597477e3f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Thunder vs. Kings | Event: nba-okc-sac-2024-11-25 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 0.9999595174579842
2. Question: Nets vs. Warriors | Event: nba-bkn-gsw-2024-11-25 | Choice: nets | Confidence: 0.01874406279380487
3. Question: Bucks vs. Heat | Event: nba-mil-mia-2024-11-26 | Choice: bucks | Co... | no | 0.725271 | epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Will Fulham win on 2024-12-05? | 65,134,457 | 65,134,457 |
86eb16c15a9d6fe65d83522908264d0d82c2ec55 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0xfd8167b6e1bd8189de282d81341af6028cdf6b51f3f04fa1a6bd62b38fd6b74f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nets vs. Warriors | Event: nba-bkn-gsw-2024-11-25 | Choice: nets | Confidence: 0.01874406279380487
2. Question: Bucks vs. Heat | Event: nba-mil-mia-2024-11-26 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Spurs vs. Jazz | Event: nba-sas-uta-2024-11-26 | Choice: jazz | Confidence: 1.0
4. Ques... | no | 0.985935 | epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-05? | 65,134,810 | 65,134,810 |
27de9fb3f7ab4ae13cc85371511cef763f28dd56 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x2d59ca69eb059251a9b9a354911411090612a90aaec79bbb049a4f03e6ee7dc0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bucks vs. Heat | Event: nba-mil-mia-2024-11-26 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Jazz | Event: nba-sas-uta-2024-11-26 | Choice: jazz | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-cle-atl-2024-11-29 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question: Pel... | knicks | 1 | nba-cha-nyk-2024-12-05 | Hornets vs. Knicks | 65,152,760 | 65,152,760 |
9c45f3e51329d1da91f3e7db86c0c05d80a25358 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x2dac3d0ff5a61fae96e8208c189bc48f7d39058e77aea852920ca789e072eb62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spurs vs. Jazz | Event: nba-sas-uta-2024-11-26 | Choice: jazz | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Cavaliers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-cle-atl-2024-11-29 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Pelicans vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-nop-mem-2024-11-29 | Choice: pelicans | Confidence: 1.0
4. Qu... | lakers | 1 | nba-lal-atl-2024-12-06 | Lakers vs. Hawks | 65,190,004 | 65,190,004 |
6f81e510c2c804e2228d1f541faa4dc0d0316fed | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x7081f3b9fbedb1407c552e47adc2b0dce24a58d46dacd2aee2ec3742655b0432 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Cavaliers vs. Hawks | Event: nba-cle-atl-2024-11-29 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Pelicans vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-nop-mem-2024-11-29 | Choice: pelicans | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Lakers | Event: nba-okc-lal-2024-11-29 | Choice: lakers | Confidence: 1.0... | pacers | 1 | nba-ind-chi-2024-12-06 | Pacers vs. Bulls | 65,190,004 | 65,190,004 |
52a1f6410747cc63aebbbc302242ed89c7f68be8 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x91d65f1b6cad9262aeef2113956d97ba8652d1b792ad6e661f49a15df1ef7115 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pelicans vs. Grizzlies | Event: nba-nop-mem-2024-11-29 | Choice: pelicans | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Thunder vs. Lakers | Event: nba-okc-lal-2024-11-29 | Choice: lakers | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2024-11-30? | Event: epl-not-ips-2024-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | warriors | 1 | nba-min-gsw-2024-12-06 | Timberwolves vs. Warriors | 65,190,004 | 65,190,004 |
beeaaef0fbd676a6e955c996f2700b11ffee08e2 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x98f2e1f75c8231c25c04f6bcfda40f6bdb07e3211e50573afae4cd63ec43023f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Thunder vs. Lakers | Event: nba-okc-lal-2024-11-29 | Choice: lakers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2024-11-30? | Event: epl-not-ips-2024-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 7.829566340000622e-05
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-30? | Event: epl-not-ips-2024... | jazz | 1 | nba-uta-por-2024-12-06 | Jazz vs. Trail Blazers | 65,190,004 | 65,190,004 |
48f91150e203194bfe5aa629b8b9e5adc11e4dc6 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x119564ff5d0d25478f67c591615d1141ae49268c213f2b195eaae0686e91def0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2024-11-30? | Event: epl-not-ips-2024-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 7.829566340000622e-05
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-30? | Event: epl-not-ips-2024-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford vs. Leicester end in a draw? | E... | bengals | 1 | nfl-cin-dal-2024-12-09 | Bengals vs. Cowboys | 65,301,773 | 65,301,773 |
e0934815af58c29466f83f1bda2f0dea8b99bac9 | 0x3d6989543c6d69357277bc9f3b37d4e070cb9829 | 0x02cc056f576bcda5ded4ddca048f315053ef4ab4d86df6863f6dd077c8ed8879 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-30? | Event: epl-not-ips-2024-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford vs. Leicester end in a draw? | Event: epl-bre-lei-2024-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 8.266183241375816e-05
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Ipswich ... | yes | 0.126528 | europa-league-viktoria-plzen-vs-manchester-united | Will Viktoria Plzen beat Manchester United? | 65,411,075 | 65,411,075 |
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